Talk Elections

This was a state that went heavily for the republican before 92. Bush 1 won it by 14 points in 88

What happened over the 4 year span between 88 and 92 that made independent voters in NJ abandon the gop?

I know 1992 every state swung D basically, but New Jersey wasn’t even considered a swing state in the 80s

Rise of social (especially religious) conservatism, GOP losing a lot of strength in urban/suburban areas (Which NJ is basically 100% urban/suburban), Fast minority growth

As for 88 --> 92 specifically, George H W Bush performed amazingly in suburbs in general in 88. Part of this was many NJ suburbanites were concerned about rising crime rates, and Dukakis seemed useless and even dangerous for solving this issue to many people. Bill Clinton, meanwhile, seemed much better on this issue, and people were getting tired of republican presidents with the declining economy.

That pretty much hits the nail on the head. Especially the minority growth part.

NJ swung to Bush in 2004 because of terrorism and especially considering the Osama tape released before the election. Because of 9/11 there was a substantial swing in NJ-NY suburbs to Bush especially amongst Italian-americans of which many had family members that worked in NYPD or Fire Departments and after 9/11 for a long term their number one focus was terrorism. 

Look no further from the swings of '88 to '92.  The GOP lost the suburban vote in a hurry. Since then, CA (for many reasons), NJ, CT, DE, VT, IL, MD and PA (until this past year) haven't sniffed the GOP column.

FTFY.

The suburban areas were bastion of the “liberal republican” brand that people like Rockefeller were so known for. In fact, for 72 years (1918-1988) the only Democrats to win New Jersey were FDR, John F Kennedy and LBJ.

But as the suburban areas near NYC and Philly became denser and denser - and as the “liberal Republican” became more extinct from the GOP, New Jersey became more and more of a Blue (Democrat) state. It didn’t really have much time as a true tossup/purple state as it narrowly went for Clinton in 1992 then was never close again.....reminds me a lot of Virginia in 2008 & going foward.

Immigration, college/wealthy whites shifting from R to D, and the GOP going hard to the right caused NJ to go from leaning R to solid D.

1988 was the peak of GOP suburban dominance. Though NJ didn't trend massively D, the nation as a whole from 88 to 92 just swung D rather heavily.

88: 13.64+R --> 5.91+R PVI
92: 2.37+D --> 3.91+R PVI
2 point D trend.

What caused NJ to remain a blue state was largely demographic in nature. NJ in 1990 was 74% non-hispanic white and now is only 58% non-hispanic white. NJ whites still broke for Trump 54-42 in 2016 according to CNN's exit polls. Another factor is the loss of GOP support in the North-East during the 90s, probably due to the transition from HW's Country Club conservatism to a party dominated more by evangelicons, from 92 to 96 the D trend was much more profound.

92: 2.37+D --> 3.91+R PVI
96: 17.86+D --> 9.34+D PVI
13.25 point D trend.

1. The early 90s recession created a lot of income inequality and turned a lot of well-educated-but-not-quite-rich people against the GOP.

2. A new generation moved into the suburbs from NYC. My parents are lifelong Democrats, and they lived in NYC in 1988 but lived in NJ by 1992.

New Jersey simulates California politically probably more than any other state.  It's similar in the sense that both states are high tax and there is a rapid influx of minorities (with Anglos moving out). 

Both states swung heavily to the Democrats in 1992 for the reasons mentioned in this post and with some ebb and flow (1994/2003 in Cailfornia and 1993/2009 in New Jersey), the state will stay Democratic for the foreseeable future.

Big if true.

In addition to everything else mentioned the GOP overpreformed in NJ during the 80s. Remember Ford only got 50% back in 1976.