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Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: TheRocketRaccoon on May 22, 2018, 10:40:17 am



Title: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on May 22, 2018, 10:40:17 am
http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Texas-Executive-Summary.pdf

Cruz 47
O'Rourke 40


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: yeah_93 on May 22, 2018, 10:41:12 am
Shocking.

I expect O'Rourke to perform very well.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on May 22, 2018, 10:41:19 am
As expected, Cruz's reelection is secure.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Singletxguyforfun on May 22, 2018, 10:44:57 am
Robert “Beta” O’Rourke will lose. Final prediction:

Rafaél Eduardo: 54
Beta Bob: 42
Some Dudes: 4


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Gass3268 on May 22, 2018, 10:46:52 am
Not bad, still very competitive for a slightly right-leaning polling company.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Pollster on May 22, 2018, 10:50:42 am
Cruz at -2 favorability, O'Rourke at +15.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: adrac on May 22, 2018, 10:57:41 am
A final result like this is in line with my expectations, but it is slightly worrisome for him to see this coming from his personal pollster. Seems like the race should be moderately competitive.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Neoliberalbusters on May 22, 2018, 11:02:44 am
Not bad, O'Rourke clearly has a good chance. Besides, this is a Cruz internal so it might be even closer.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: KingSweden on May 22, 2018, 11:04:44 am
JMC is not Cruz’s pollster, that’s WPA.

Still - suggests the CV is right on this race. Competitive, but Cruz is plainly the favorite.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on May 22, 2018, 11:05:05 am
Cruz is likely not in any trouble, but it's interesting that a seven-point lead for Cruz means he's safe, but a four-point lead for McCaskill doesn't even mean that she's got 50/50 chances of holding her seat. Hmmm...


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Prolocutor Bagel23 on May 22, 2018, 11:05:53 am
Cruz is likely not in any trouble, but it's interesting that a seven-point lead for Cruz means he's safe, but a four-point lead for McCaskill doesn't even mean that she's got 50/50 chances of holding her seat. Hmmm...


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Neoliberalbusters on May 22, 2018, 11:10:29 am
Cruz is likely not in any trouble, but it's interesting that a seven-point lead for Cruz means he's safe, but a four-point lead for McCaskill doesn't even mean that she's got 50/50 chances of holding her seat. Hmmm...


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: KingSweden on May 22, 2018, 11:13:22 am
Cruz is likely not in any trouble, but it's interesting that a seven-point lead for Cruz means he's safe, but a four-point lead for McCaskill doesn't even mean that she's got 50/50 chances of holding her seat. Hmmm...


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on May 22, 2018, 11:19:22 am
So why the delay in releasing this, particularly if this is Cruz's internal pollster?

Were they originally getting numbers showing it closer, so they had to poll a bit more until they got numbers showing Cruz with a somewhat decent lead?

Is that what "more fieldwork" means?

I am referring to this from a few days ago, where they said they were going to release a poll but then said, oops, need more fieldwork first...:



Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: KingSweden on May 22, 2018, 11:40:55 am
There’s some really goofy crosstabs - Cruz doing counterintuitively well with black people and young people, Beto doing oddly well with whites.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Hindsight is 2020 on May 22, 2018, 11:50:24 am
The cross tabs look weird


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: OneJ on May 22, 2018, 11:53:28 am
There’s some really goofy crosstabs - Cruz doing counterintuitively well with black people and young people, Beto doing oddly well with whites.

My thoughts as well.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Doctor Imperialism on May 22, 2018, 11:54:39 am
Tossup.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on May 22, 2018, 11:54:45 am
Cruz is at 58% amongst 18-35 year olds???!!!!


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on May 22, 2018, 11:55:49 am
As expected, Cruz's reelection is secure.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Mondale on May 22, 2018, 11:56:31 am
Who TF is Jenkins?! No way he's getting 6% of the vote


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: DTC on May 22, 2018, 11:59:24 am
As expected, Cruz's reelection is secure.

46% of people barely know who Beto is and Cruz is only leading by 7. He's far from "secure", especially when his favorable ratings are 42-44.

If democrats can win in places like North Dakota, West Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri Montana, Indiana, etc (all places where Trump did significantly better in than in TX), it's not hard to see why an unpopular & far-right dysfunctional senator like Ted Cruz can lose if conditions get a bit worse for Republicans.

Not that I think Texas is purple or anything (I am a huge doubter in the blue TX pipedream). I actually think dems only gain 1 house seat from TX. Only reason I think there's a chance republicans can lose is Ted Cruz is a godawful incumbent. Abbott is obviously going to safely cruise to reelection. But I can definitely easily see Ted Cruz being held down to less than a 5 point victory, especially when democrats are coming close to winning places like AZ-08 (a suburban district that voted +20 for every Republican in the past 50 years).


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on May 22, 2018, 12:00:46 pm
A 7-point lead means Cruz is “Safe”, but a 4-point lead for McCaskill means she’s doomed?


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Maxwell on May 22, 2018, 12:01:51 pm
Cruz at -2 favorability, O'Rourke at +15.

yeah an O'Rourke win is definitely possible.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: DTC on May 22, 2018, 12:04:38 pm
A 7-point lead means Cruz is “Safe”, but a 4-point lead for McCaskill means she’s doomed?

And this is from the pollster that never had Roy Moore below a 5 point lead.

Spoiler alert: Moore lost by 1.7


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on May 22, 2018, 12:06:03 pm
I also want to use this poll to reiterate my point: despite the tightening of the GCB, the individual race polls still signal a blue wave. Cruz winning by only single digits is a part of a Blue Wave.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Atlas Force on May 22, 2018, 12:06:52 pm
Cruz is likely not in any trouble, but it's interesting that a seven-point lead for Cruz means he's safe, but a four-point lead for McCaskill doesn't even mean that she's got 50/50 chances of holding her seat. Hmmm...


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: McGovernForPrez on May 22, 2018, 12:37:20 pm
I also want to use this poll to reiterate my point: despite the tightening of the GCB, the individual race polls still signal a blue wave. Cruz winning by only single digits is a part of a Blue Wave.
Although I still believe in a blue wave I'd urge caution when trying to choose between individual race polls and the generic ballot. Remember in 2016 it was the individual race polls that were far off. The national polls were only off by a few points but that didn't matter since the polling for key swing states vastly overestimated Clinton.

Personally I believe things will break towards the Dems last minute. Nate's first rule of polling seems like it could come into play in 2018. Almost everybody is afraid to be bullish on Democrats after 2016 so we'll likely see it break in favor of Democrats if the rule is correct.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Neoliberalbusters on May 22, 2018, 12:46:03 pm
As expected, Cruz's reelection is secure.

46% of people barely know who Beto is and Cruz is only leading by 7. He's far from "secure", especially when his favorable ratings are 42-44.

If democrats can win in places like North Dakota, West Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri Montana, Indiana, etc (all places where Trump did significantly better in than in TX), it's not hard to see why an unpopular & far-right dysfunctional senator like Ted Cruz can lose if conditions get a bit worse for Republicans.

Not that I think Texas is purple or anything (I am a huge doubter in the blue TX pipedream). I actually think dems only gain 1 house seat from TX. Only reason I think there's a chance republicans can lose is Ted Cruz is a godawful incumbent. Abbott is obviously going to safely cruise to reelection. But I can definitely easily see Ted Cruz being held down to less than a 5 point victory, especially when democrats are coming close to winning places like AZ-08 (a suburban district that voted +20 for every Republican in the past 50 years).
Of course O'Rourke has a fighting chance. He is running a great campaign and really putting up a fight against Lyin' Ted. But of course Wulfric will believe in his "unbeatable Cruz" religion.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: cvparty on May 22, 2018, 12:46:15 pm
how is mid-single digits for an incumbent 5 months before the election safe lmfao


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Neoliberalbusters on May 22, 2018, 12:49:32 pm
how is mid-single digits for an incumbent 5 months before the election safe lmfao
Because Atlas believes an unpopular incumbent in a red-leaning state is Safe, an unpopular incumbent in a blue-leaning state (Nevada) is favored, and a popular incumbent in a red state (North Dakota) is DOA, in a blue year even.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Virginiá on May 22, 2018, 12:59:17 pm
I don't hold it against people who think Cruz is safe. Democrats haven't won a statewide race in TX in over 20 years, and even in traditionally GOP states that lean even more Republican (Dakotas), Democrats have had more success. Sometimes a lot, like ND. The point being that Democrats may be able to make inroads in the Texas electorate, but it'll probably be hard to secure those last half dozen points or so that they need to win.

I'm taking a "see it to believe it" approach to Texas, although it would be easier to buy into if Beto started leading in a bunch of decent polls in October.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on May 22, 2018, 01:04:12 pm
Likely R, but I agree with Politician that some people here are underestimating female candidates (Rosen, Heitkamp, McCaskill, et al.).


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: KingSweden on May 22, 2018, 01:05:13 pm
I don't hold it against people who think Cruz is safe. Democrats haven't won a statewide race in TX in over 20 years, and even in traditionally GOP states that lean even more Republican (Dakotas), Democrats have had more success. Sometimes a lot, like ND. The point being that Democrats may be able to make inroads in the Texas electorate, but it'll probably be hard to secure those last half dozen points or so that they need to win.

I'm taking a "see it to believe it" approach to Texas, although it would be easier to buy into if Beto started leading in a bunch of decent polls in October.

This is (per usual with Virginia) the most sensible take, and more or less where I am too


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on May 22, 2018, 02:11:43 pm
I don't hold it against people who think Cruz is safe. Democrats haven't won a statewide race in TX in over 20 years, and even in traditionally GOP states that lean even more Republican (Dakotas), Democrats have had more success. Sometimes a lot, like ND. The point being that Democrats may be able to make inroads in the Texas electorate, but it'll probably be hard to secure those last half dozen points or so that they need to win.

I'm taking a "see it to believe it" approach to Texas, although it would be easier to buy into if Beto started leading in a bunch of decent polls in October.

This.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: President Johnson on May 22, 2018, 02:28:01 pm
Cruz at -2 favorability, O'Rourke at +15.

yeah an O'Rourke win is definitely possible.

Well, that tells us that there are tons of partisan hacks who vote for Cruz regardless of their opinion of him just because there is an R behind his name.

Still somewhere between lean and likely Republican, with Beto having outsider chances. I'd put the odds around 25% or 30% at this point. But there is plenty of time to go.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: IceSpear on May 22, 2018, 05:31:04 pm
Cruz is likely not in any trouble, but it's interesting that a seven-point lead for Cruz means he's safe, but a four-point lead for McCaskill doesn't even mean that she's got 50/50 chances of holding her seat. Hmmm...


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: UncleSam on May 22, 2018, 05:52:39 pm
Cruz at -2 favorability, O'Rourke at +15.

yeah an O'Rourke win is definitely possible.

Well, that tells us that there are tons of partisan hacks who vote for Cruz regardless of their opinion of him just because there is an R behind his name.

Still somewhere between lean and likely Republican, with Beto having outsider chances. I'd put the odds around 25% or 30% at this point. But there is plenty of time to go.
Isn’t it just as likely to mean that there are lots of Dems with negative opinions of Cruz and few who don’t know who he is vs relatively more Rs who don’t know who Beto is and so put no opinion?


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: UWS on May 22, 2018, 07:09:26 pm
Cruz at -2 favorability, O'Rourke at +15.

yeah an O'Rourke win is definitely possible.

After all Clinton lost Texas by just 9 percentage points and she even did better than Obama in 2012 and due to Trump's unpopularity, a O'Rourke win in Texas is quite possible.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Predictor on May 22, 2018, 07:57:37 pm
Likely R. Nothing's changed.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: NOVA Green on May 22, 2018, 09:43:22 pm
There are a ton of things I love about Texas, having lived there for about five years until just recently....

One of the things that I don't love about Texas (Sorry Gary Nunn Country/Folk Native Texas Son song Rip-off quote--- love the artist myself) is how difficult it is to poll for General Elections....

Not only do you have over six major media markets that encompass some 80% of the population of Texas, but additionally you have tons of extremely complicated variables when it comes to weighing and modelling electoral turnout by region, race/ethnicity, demographic, "party affiliation", etc....

Additionally we have this additional variable when it comes to Midterm Election turnout among these various communities that represent the Great State of Texas.

Minority turnout in Texas in General tends to be significantly lower in off-year elections than Presidential Year Elections, especially among Latino Voters.

Compounding this problem is that working-class Latinos tend to vote overwhelmingly Democrat, but have much lower turnout levels than Middle-Class Latinos, whom tend to be much swingier in their voting preferences than working-class Latinos, although we started to recently change over the past few Federal General Election cycles....

I suspect that pollsters regardless of partisan lean are trying to use "typical off-year" GE modelling for the 2018 US SEN election to play it safe, and create a typical regional and social-demographic model, rather than jumping to conclusions about a hypothetical voting surge among various age and ethnic populations more likely to vote Democrat than a typical off-year election model.

If anything, this poll exposes the relative weakness of Cruz among a traditionally extremely favorable off-year electorate for a Republican Candidate in Texas....

We will have plenty more polls over the next few months on the state of the US-SEN TX race, but let's face it, Dems are going to be sinking some $$$ into Texas in the '18 GE, and this is a state with some pretty fast changing demographic, political, and cultural changes in the population centers where 80% of the population lives, even in an off-year election.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Mumph on May 23, 2018, 05:43:16 am
This poll has a nice number, but it's crosstabs are awful. Just based on Cruz's performance with young and black people in this poll I'd toss it.

I'd rate this at Lean R. If this were Indiana or Georgia oh boy would Cruz lose.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: here2view on May 24, 2018, 10:44:21 am
how is mid-single digits for an incumbent 5 months before the election safe lmfao

Likely R. I agree not safe at all.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: omelott on May 27, 2018, 09:38:59 pm
Kinda sad that Cruz doesn't crack 50% in his own internal. Lean R.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Pickup Paulite on May 30, 2018, 10:43:41 am
Toss-Up
LOL


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Spenstar on June 01, 2018, 02:49:53 pm
Lean R. Beto can come back, but we're still at a point where he should consider a mid to low single digit loss as a victory


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Devout Centrist on June 01, 2018, 03:12:04 pm
Beto is done, it's over, bob_krueger_2.0, give up, etc.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: olowakandi on June 03, 2018, 10:14:43 pm
As expected, Cruz's reelection is secure.

Cruz is Latino in TX


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: UWS on June 05, 2018, 10:07:20 am
As expected, Cruz's reelection is secure.

Cruz is Latino in TX

" Well first of all, I don't know how he knows what I said on Univision, because he doesn't speak Spanish. "

LOL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bk4pCXwkbY


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Bernie 2020 on June 05, 2018, 10:15:20 am
As expected, Cruz's reelection is secure.

Cruz is Latino in TX

" Well first of all, I don't know how he knows what I said on Univision, because he doesn't speak Spanish. "

LOL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bk4pCXwkbY
And then it ended up being fake news much like everything Marco Rubio says, your point?


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: UWS on June 05, 2018, 10:22:42 am
As expected, Cruz's reelection is secure.

Cruz is Latino in TX

" Well first of all, I don't know how he knows what I said on Univision, because he doesn't speak Spanish. "

LOL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bk4pCXwkbY
And then it ended up being fake news much like everything Marco Rubio says, your point?

I was just joking. It was a way to correct his record on immigration. No wonder that Cruz is called Lyin' Ted.

Anyway.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: Bernie 2020 on June 05, 2018, 10:24:46 am
As expected, Cruz's reelection is secure.

Cruz is Latino in TX

" Well first of all, I don't know how he knows what I said on Univision, because he doesn't speak Spanish. "

LOL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bk4pCXwkbY
And then it ended up being fake news much like everything Marco Rubio says, your point?

I was just joking. It was a way to correct his record on immigration. No wonder that Cruz is called Lyin' Ted.

Anyway.
Frankly I feel like this response violates my first amendment rights.


Title: Re: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7
Post by: UWS on June 05, 2018, 10:28:06 am
As expected, Cruz's reelection is secure.

Cruz is Latino in TX

" Well first of all, I don't know how he knows what I said on Univision, because he doesn't speak Spanish. "

LOL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bk4pCXwkbY
And then it ended up being fake news much like everything Marco Rubio says, your point?

I was just joking. It was a way to correct his record on immigration. No wonder that Cruz is called Lyin' Ted.

Anyway.
Frankly I feel like this response violates my first amendment rights.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90ctO0k3Viw