Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Skye on May 30, 2018, 12:53:00 pm



Title: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Skye on May 30, 2018, 12:53:00 pm
Cruz 50
O'Rourke 39

Cruz's approvals at 52-39. Damn, that's going to be though for O'Rourke. Trump's approvals are also at 47-47.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2542


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Old School Republican on May 30, 2018, 12:54:59 pm
Likely R


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: KingSweden on May 30, 2018, 12:55:26 pm
Sounds about right.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on May 30, 2018, 12:55:59 pm


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Strudelcutie4427 on May 30, 2018, 12:56:41 pm
Here we go! Teddy Ballgame gonna wreck Robert “beta”


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: PA is Lean D on May 30, 2018, 12:57:15 pm
That was fun while it lasted.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: krazen1211 on May 30, 2018, 12:57:41 pm
This poll indicates a likely victory for Cruz.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Gass3268 on May 30, 2018, 12:58:06 pm
Interesting that Trump still has very poor approvals for a Republican in Texas.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Speaker YE on May 30, 2018, 12:58:23 pm
Wasn't the last Quinnipiac poll +3 for Cruz or am I insane?


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: KingSweden on May 30, 2018, 12:59:55 pm
Wasn't the last Quinnipiac poll +3 for Cruz or am I insane?

Only after “information” about each candidate was given. The topline was a slightly larger Cruz lead... IIRC. Someone with a better memory is welcome to correct me.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Jeff Sessions Hack on May 30, 2018, 01:01:19 pm
B-b-but muh Texas is a tossup! Only far-right crazies would vote for Cruz! Junk poll!


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: mds32 on May 30, 2018, 01:03:14 pm
Yeah I knew O'Rourke wouldn't be a good fit for Texans. Cruz won't win like he did in 2012 imo, but he probably won't be far off from the margin.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Cory Booker on May 30, 2018, 01:03:38 pm
Beto is done


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: mds32 on May 30, 2018, 01:05:31 pm
Trump's Approval shifts from 43/52 in April to 47/47 in May. Huge movement. He's basically even.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: KingSweden on May 30, 2018, 01:10:03 pm

Whole lotta ballgame, though Cruz is (and always should have been) favored.

Trump's Approval shifts from 43/52 in April to 47/47 in May. Huge movement. He's basically even.

A Republican breaking even in Texas is horrible. Honestly it makes me wonder if the April poll was an outlier that oversampled Dems.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Socialists are Pro-Choice Fascists on May 30, 2018, 01:10:25 pm
A useful data point but definitely one of the more Cruz leaning polls.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Bagel23 on May 30, 2018, 01:12:18 pm
I doubt Cruz approval is that high, he is above water though, but this looks right otherwise.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: mds32 on May 30, 2018, 01:15:54 pm

Whole lotta ballgame, though Cruz is (and always should have been) favored.

Trump's Approval shifts from 43/52 in April to 47/47 in May. Huge movement. He's basically even.

A Republican breaking even in Texas is horrible. Honestly it makes me wonder if the April poll was an outlier that oversampled Dems.

No he's been underwater there for sometime. Go look at the data.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Gass3268 on May 30, 2018, 01:16:47 pm

Whole lotta ballgame, though Cruz is (and always should have been) favored.

Trump's Approval shifts from 43/52 in April to 47/47 in May. Huge movement. He's basically even.

A Republican breaking even in Texas is horrible. Honestly it makes me wonder if the April poll was an outlier that oversampled Dems.

No he's been underwater there for sometime. Go look at the data.

It's still awful.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Pandaguineapig on May 30, 2018, 01:18:26 pm
Buh buh....... Texas going blooo.....


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: brand_allen on May 30, 2018, 01:19:04 pm
The poll has Cruz up on O'Rourke 46-44% among Hispanics.

FWIW, Trump lost Texas Hispanics 61-34% in 2016.

Even Gov. Abbott lost them 55-44% in 2014, even while he was winning statewide by 20 points.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Bagel23 on May 30, 2018, 01:21:03 pm
Buh buh....... Texas going blooo.....

It is not blue, but it is a helluva lot bluer than it would be back in the days where it would be humiliating for the GOP to get anything below a 20-25 pt mov here. Some congressional districts are also shifting rapidly.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Politician on May 30, 2018, 01:27:15 pm
The poll has Cruz up on O'Rourke 46-44% among Hispanics.

FWIW, Trump lost Texas Hispanics 61-34% in 2016.

Even Gov. Abbott lost them 55-44% in 2014, even while he was winning statewide by 20 points.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: krazen1211 on May 30, 2018, 01:32:03 pm
The poll has Cruz up on O'Rourke 46-44% among Hispanics.

FWIW, Trump lost Texas Hispanics 61-34% in 2016.

Even Gov. Abbott lost them 55-44% in 2014, even while he was winning statewide by 20 points.

Now check out the Texas white vote and repeat.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: brand_allen on May 30, 2018, 01:43:37 pm
The poll has Cruz up on O'Rourke 46-44% among Hispanics.

FWIW, Trump lost Texas Hispanics 61-34% in 2016.

Even Gov. Abbott lost them 55-44% in 2014, even while he was winning statewide by 20 points.

Now check out the Texas white vote and repeat.

Abbott carried whites by 47 points in 2014, the exact same amount he's carrying them by in the new Q-poll. We don't know how Cruz did among whites in 2012 because there was no exit polling. But Trump carried them by 43 points in 2016. Cruz is currently carrying them by not much less than that (34 points).

So I'm not sure I see your point...


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: darthpi on May 30, 2018, 01:47:17 pm
Within range of expectations. Throw it in the average.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: KingSweden on May 30, 2018, 01:48:44 pm
I like how a poll that aligns with expectations that pretty much everyone had still triggers a flame war lol


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on May 30, 2018, 01:49:11 pm
Just take the average of the polls. This poll looks off, but so did the other QPAC poll which had Cruz up by only 3. Average of Cruz + 3 and Cruz + 11 is Cruz + 7.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: krazen1211 on May 30, 2018, 01:49:20 pm
The poll has Cruz up on O'Rourke 46-44% among Hispanics.

FWIW, Trump lost Texas Hispanics 61-34% in 2016.

Even Gov. Abbott lost them 55-44% in 2014, even while he was winning statewide by 20 points.

Now check out the Texas white vote and repeat.

Abbott carried whites by 47 points in 2014, the exact same amount he's carrying them by in the new Q-poll. We don't know how Cruz did among whites in 2012 because there was no exit polling. But Trump carried them by 43 points in 2016. Cruz is currently carrying them by not much less than that (34 points).

So I'm not sure I see your point...

Cornyn got 74% of the white vote and won whites by 52%. 9% less margin among whites greatly skews the overall margins against Cruz compared to reality by at least 5%. It is in fact much less.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: ThatConservativeGuy on May 30, 2018, 01:50:37 pm
Good! Keep Texas (Atlas) blue!


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: The Mikado on May 30, 2018, 01:51:17 pm
I still think that, at the end of the day, result will be somewhere between Cruz+6 and Cruz+8. Enough to give Lyin' Ted a scare, but not enough to actually topple him.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 30, 2018, 01:53:50 pm

Has your kiddie diddler conceded yet?


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: KingSweden on May 30, 2018, 01:56:06 pm
I still think that, at the end of the day, result will be somewhere between Cruz+6 and Cruz+8. Enough to give Lyin' Ted a scare, but not enough to actually topple him.

A reasonable prediction (and in line with DTC’s point up above)


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: UncleSam on May 30, 2018, 02:05:24 pm
Cruz was only ever going down in a D+10 or more environment. We will see if that’s how it is looking come November.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: MT Treasurer on May 30, 2018, 02:07:45 pm
Likely R, but to claim that O'Rourke's candidacy has been overhyped would be a gross understatement.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Lean Branson on May 30, 2018, 02:10:09 pm
Tossup.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Politician on May 30, 2018, 02:11:17 pm
Still Lean Republican, but an upset possible.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: superbudgie1582 on May 30, 2018, 02:12:49 pm
Yeah, that April poll was probably a bit funky.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Politician on May 30, 2018, 02:15:37 pm
Interesting how Cruz +11 equals Safe Republican, but Manchin +12 is a fake poll and it's a tossup race.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Young Texan on May 30, 2018, 02:24:00 pm
This race is likely R, it’s not changing. Beto can’t overcome the Republican dominance in Tarrant and surrounding areas. Nothing to see here, move along.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: MT Treasurer on May 30, 2018, 02:26:30 pm
Interesting how Cruz +11 equals Safe Republican, but Manchin +12 is a fake poll and it's a tossup race.

WV and TX are both incredibly overhyped races, especially by the so-called “experts”. I think Manchin is actually the safest Romney state Democrat at this point, even safer than you-know-who.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: JG on May 30, 2018, 02:30:49 pm
Interesting how Cruz +11 equals Safe Republican, but Manchin +12 is a fake poll and it's a tossup race.

WV and TX are both incredibly overhyped races, especially by the so-called “experts”. I think Manchin is actually the safest Romney state Democrat at this point, even safer than you-know-who.

Is TX overhyped by experts though? It seems to be overhyped mostly by the base than by anyone else. Most ''experts'' I've read seem to be a bit on the ''meh'' side and not very convinced that this race will be anywhere close.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: RFayette on May 30, 2018, 02:35:07 pm
Terrific Ted is terrific.  News at 11.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: John Bel Edwards on May 30, 2018, 02:52:00 pm
Toss-up ====> Lean-R


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on May 30, 2018, 03:40:18 pm
Here we go! Teddu Ballgame? gonna wreck Robert “beta”
Teddy Ballgame? I think you mean eduardo


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on May 30, 2018, 03:41:30 pm
This is about what can be expected of Texas. At the end of the day, the votes are just not really there for a Democrat to win. The most that can be realistically hoped for O'Rourke is that maybe he will come somewhat close and build the TX Democratic party for the future. If O'Rourke can come within 5-8 points or so, he can show that maybe in a decade or two Democrats may start having a more realistic chance of winning statewide races in Texas.

This also means that Democratic hopes at winning the Senate basically require pulling an inside straight. Certainly quite possible given the strength of some of the Red State Dem incumbents and likely pickups in AZ and NV, but a tall order.

Interesting how Cruz +11 equals Safe Republican, but Manchin +12 is a fake poll and it's a tossup race.

WV and TX are both incredibly overhyped races, especially by the so-called “experts”. I think Manchin is actually the safest Romney state Democrat at this point, even safer than you-know-who.

It is pretty natural that both WV and TX get overhyped.

TX naturally gets overhyped for 2 reasons:

1) It is a large and populous state. Similar to California or New York, it gets a disproportionated amount of the national attention no matter whether their races are really more competitive than other races.

2) It plays into the narrative about demographic change and hype about that.


WV naturally gets overhyped for 2 reasons:

1) It is close to Washington DC, and part of West Virginia is in the Washington DC media market. That means that national news reporters in DC are more likely to see occasional TV ads (or at least radio) targeted at WV voters. A handful of their co-workers also commute in to DC from the WV panhandle, which is more and more part of the DC exurbs. So as far as red states go, WV is one of the easier places for the national press to relate to. It is more accessible than Nebraska.

2) It plays into the 'racist WV hick' stereotype.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Strudelcutie4427 on May 30, 2018, 03:44:32 pm
Here we go! Teddu Ballgame? gonna wreck Robert “beta”
Teddy Ballgame? I think you mean eduardo

Rafael Eduardo Cruz vs. Robert O'Rourke


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on May 30, 2018, 03:47:56 pm
Here we go! Teddu Ballgame? gonna wreck Robert “beta”
Teddy Ballgame? I think you mean eduardo

Rafael Eduardo Cruz vs. Robert O'Rourke
lol. I wonder who wins latinos


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil on May 30, 2018, 03:48:56 pm
Beto is too good of a candidate to lose Latinos...probably


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Xing on May 30, 2018, 03:52:27 pm
Yeah, not too surprised. Rambunctious Rafael is probably safe. It's going to be far easier for Democrats to win back WI/MI/PA than to flip TX, and the "Demographics are destiny" folks really do need to realize that there has always been regional variation in the U.S., and that's not about to go away. Texas whites will continue to vote far to the right of Michigan whites for the foreseeable future.

Likely R, close to Safe R. Tennessee is definitely a better investment for Democrats, at this point.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: #gravelgang #lessiglad on May 30, 2018, 03:56:19 pm
This is about what can be expected of Texas. At the end of the day, the votes are just not really there for a Democrat to win. The most that can be realistically hoped for O'Rourke is that maybe he will come somewhat close and build the TX Democratic party for the future. If O'Rourke can come within 5-8 points or so, he can show that maybe in a decade or two Democrats may start having a more realistic chance of winning statewide races in Texas.

This also means that Democratic hopes at winning the Senate basically require pulling an inside straight. Certainly quite possible given the strength of some of the Red State Dem incumbents and likely pickups in AZ and NV, but a tall order.

Interesting how Cruz +11 equals Safe Republican, but Manchin +12 is a fake poll and it's a tossup race.

WV and TX are both incredibly overhyped races, especially by the so-called “experts”. I think Manchin is actually the safest Romney state Democrat at this point, even safer than you-know-who.

It is pretty natural that both WV and TX get overhyped.

TX naturally gets overhyped for 2 reasons:

1) It is a large and populous state. Similar to California or New York, it gets a disproportionated amount of the national attention no matter whether their races are really more competitive than other races.

2) It plays into the narrative about demographic change and hype about that.


WV naturally gets overhyped for 2 reasons:

1) It is close to Washington DC, and part of West Virginia is in the Washington DC media market. That means that national news reporters in DC are more likely to see occasional TV ads (or at least radio) targeted at WV voters. A handful of their co-workers also commute in to DC from the WV panhandle, which is more and more part of the DC exurbs. So as far as red states go, WV is one of the easier places for the national press to relate to. It is more accessible than Nebraska.

2) It plays into the 'racist WV hick' stereotype.

Good, comprehensive, balanced post.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: #gravelgang #lessiglad on May 30, 2018, 04:02:32 pm
Re: the poll itself, it isn't exactly a surprising result. The range of reasonable expectations was and always has been a nail-biter O'Rourke win to a comfortable low-to-mid-double digit Cruz win, with a sizeable majority of outcomes falling into the Cruz win category.

In other words, his average polling lead of roughly 7% is large enough that he's considered the probable winner or prohibitive favorite, but narrow enough that a slightly larger than average polling error for Senate races is all that stands between Ted Cruz and the unemployment office. Well, more plausibly, DLA Piper, but whatever.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Pandaguineapig on May 30, 2018, 04:49:29 pm
Robert Francis O'Rourke is probably another Wendy Davis; a liberal who is the darling of monied interests and national media but has little natural appeal in Texas. Like Davis he'll start out somewhat close and raise a ton of money from NY and California but fall behind the more the race goes on


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Politician on May 30, 2018, 04:55:00 pm
Robert Francis O'Rourke is probably another Wendy Davis; a liberal who is the darling of monied interests and national media but has little natural appeal in Texas. Like Davis he'll start out somewhat close and raise a ton of money from NY and California but fall behind the more the race goes on
You're funny


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Shameless Bernie Hack on May 30, 2018, 04:55:27 pm
B-b-but muh Texas is a tossup! Only far-right crazies would vote for Cruz! Junk poll!

I mean the second sentence is just empirically correct.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Politician on May 30, 2018, 04:58:02 pm
B-b-but muh Texas is a tossup! Only far-right crazies would vote for Cruz! Junk poll!

I mean the second sentence is just empirically correct.
I bet this guy dismisses polls showing Bredesen/McCaskill ahead by going "muh Missouri/Tennessee too Republican to ever elect a Democrat!"


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Cory Booker on May 30, 2018, 04:59:42 pm
Cruz is Latino in a WWC Latino state, so it's no problem for him on winning.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Jeff Sessions Hack on May 30, 2018, 05:06:30 pm
B-b-but muh Texas is a tossup! Only far-right crazies would vote for Cruz! Junk poll!

I mean the second sentence is just empirically correct.
I bet this guy dismisses polls showing Bredesen/McCaskill ahead by going "muh Missouri/Tennessee too Republican to ever elect a Democrat!"

No. Missouri is tilt D and Tennessee is a tossup as of now.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 30, 2018, 05:22:04 pm
As expected.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Holmes on May 30, 2018, 05:28:47 pm
These Texas Q polls have really made the blue avatars here cream themselves.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Politician on May 30, 2018, 05:31:17 pm
These Texas Q polls have really made the blue avatars here cream themselves.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Old School Republican on May 30, 2018, 05:33:13 pm
Texas is actually going blue if you go by the original NBC Colors


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: WB said Trans Rights on May 30, 2018, 05:49:52 pm
Expecting I to be a good bit closer than this. As others have pointed out, the cross tabs are a good bit in favor of Cruz than how it likely is. Still lean R.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on May 30, 2018, 07:05:17 pm
This race is likely R and always has been likely R.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Politician on May 30, 2018, 07:13:49 pm
I knew Wulfric would jackoff to this from a long distance away.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Young Conservative on May 30, 2018, 07:21:11 pm
Best part of the poll: the Atlas leftist denial and whataboutism.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on May 30, 2018, 07:22:20 pm
Best part of the poll: the Atlas leftist denial and whataboutism.

The vast majority of the red avatars are saying this is expected, but keep being a partisan hack. :)


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Politician on May 30, 2018, 07:36:03 pm
Best part of the poll: the Atlas leftist denial and whataboutism.
Worst: Blue avatar masturbation fantasy.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: UWS on May 30, 2018, 08:20:04 pm
I think O'Rourke could take an advantage against Cruz by attacking him on NAFTA and free trade in general since Cruz supports the construction of Trump's wall while pushing it could antagonize Texas' major trading partner which is Mexico, casting a pall over the trade talks, thus risking to restrict trade between Texas and Mexico and could cost jobs in Texas. And 1 out of 4 jobs in Texas depend on trade with Mexico.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2017/11/23/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-agree-dire-outcome-nafta-dies-senator-likes-trumps-border-wall

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/trade/2018/05/30/texas-lawmakers-grow-anxious-naftas-fate-negotiations-drag


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: KingSweden on May 30, 2018, 10:33:03 pm
I think O'Rourke could take an advantage against Cruz by attacking him on NAFTA and free trade in general since Cruz supports the construction of Trump's wall while pushing it could antagonize Texas' major trading partner which is Mexico, casting a pall over the trade talks, thus risking to restrict trade between Texas and Mexico and could cost jobs in Texas. And 1 out of 4 jobs in Texas depend on trade with Mexico.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2017/11/23/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-agree-dire-outcome-nafta-dies-senator-likes-trumps-border-wall

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/trade/2018/05/30/texas-lawmakers-grow-anxious-naftas-fate-negotiations-drag

Good point, I hadn’t thought of thay


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: WB said Trans Rights on May 31, 2018, 07:38:44 am
I think O'Rourke could take an advantage against Cruz by attacking him on NAFTA and free trade in general since Cruz supports the construction of Trump's wall while pushing it could antagonize Texas' major trading partner which is Mexico, casting a pall over the trade talks, thus risking to restrict trade between Texas and Mexico and could cost jobs in Texas. And 1 out of 4 jobs in Texas depend on trade with Mexico.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2017/11/23/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-agree-dire-outcome-nafta-dies-senator-likes-trumps-border-wall

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/trade/2018/05/30/texas-lawmakers-grow-anxious-naftas-fate-negotiations-drag

Good point, I hadn’t thought of thay
someone contact O'Rourke's campaign team right now


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: dfwlibertylover on May 31, 2018, 07:43:18 am
I don't think NAFTA is really a big issue in Texas lol, literally nobody talks about it here....


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Cory Booker on May 31, 2018, 08:18:17 am
The Beto camp was touting 3 point poll.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: UWS on May 31, 2018, 08:54:27 am
I don't think NAFTA is really a big issue in Texas lol, literally nobody talks about it here....

Well, they should because their pockets depend on it.

And by the way, on jobs, again, O'Rourke could use the article below against Cruz in order to destroy him when talking economy by attacking him on his role in the lawsuit defending a Chinese company that stole an American invention and blueprints.

http://www.politifact.com/new-hampshire/statements/2016/feb/07/marco-rubio/rubio-attacks-cruz-role-lawsuit-defending-chinese-/


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Cory Booker on May 31, 2018, 09:09:56 am
Trump is a free trader and having summits with Korea who is friends with China. Mexico and China is where we get our free trade from. That's why we are s center right country.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear on May 31, 2018, 04:34:09 pm
Texas is not a Trumpian state, but it is a small government Tea Party state. Lyin' Ted is a Tea Party nut, and fits the state much better than the Orange Clown.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Justice Blair on May 31, 2018, 04:37:01 pm
Robert Francis O'Rourke is probably another Wendy Davis; a liberal who is the darling of monied interests and national media but has little natural appeal in Texas. Like Davis he'll start out somewhat close and raise a ton of money from NY and California but fall behind the more the race goes on

It’s not 1911. Don’t say ‘monied interests’.

Besides Ted is a Harvard lawyer who’s spend his whole life in politics and who’s wife works for Goldman Sachs...


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on May 31, 2018, 04:39:16 pm
Robert Francis O'Rourke is probably another Wendy Davis; a liberal who is the darling of monied interests and national media but has little natural appeal in Texas. Like Davis he'll start out somewhat close and raise a ton of money from NY and California but fall behind the more the race goes on

It’s not 1911. Don’t say ‘monied interests’.

Besides Ted is a Harvard lawyer who’s spend his whole life in politics and who’s wife works for Goldman Sachs...


Beto O Rourke is also not taking any Corporate PAC Money while Ted Cruz fights for corporate tax cuts & deregulation of big banks and has the entire GOP swamp behind him.

Anyone who thinks Beto has the "monied interests" behind him is insane. He is the David vs Goliath (the Texas swamp)


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Lean Branson on May 31, 2018, 10:42:17 pm
Going to be laughing at a lot of people when this turns out to be a VA-SEN 2006 redux.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Lok on June 01, 2018, 12:10:24 am
Likely R, but anything could happen in the next few months.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Calthrina950 on June 01, 2018, 02:11:42 am
Going to be laughing at a lot of people when this turns out to be a VA-SEN 2006 redux.

Are you implying that O'Rourke will manage a narrow victory? I still find that unlikely, and I am of the belief that Abbott will give just enough of a boost to Cruz to keep him comfortably ahead in the final result.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Old School Republican on June 01, 2018, 02:40:46 am
Going to be laughing at a lot of people when this turns out to be a VA-SEN 2006 redux.

Virginia in 2006 was clearly more Democratic than Texas Today. Texas has not elected any Democrat in any statewide race since 1994 while by 2006 the Democrats had been in control of the Gubernatorial Mansion for 5 years.


Factor in Jim Webb was significantly more centrist then O'Rourke and that means


TX-SEN 2018 is not VA 2006 redux


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Bagel23 on June 01, 2018, 05:40:15 am
Going to be laughing at a lot of people when this turns out to be a VA-SEN 2006 redux.

Virginia in 2006 was clearly more Democratic than Texas Today. Texas has not elected any Democrat in any statewide race since 1994 while by 2006 the Democrats had been in control of the Gubernatorial Mansion for 5 years.


Factor in Jim Webb was significantly more centrist then O'Rourke and that means


TX-SEN 2018 is not VA 2006 redux

This. I think Cuellar might have been able to pull a Webb though, and he is Webb-like too and represents Webb couny ;).


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: dfwlibertylover on June 01, 2018, 06:00:19 am
Could be a VA Sen 2014 redux though ;)


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Politician on June 01, 2018, 06:52:07 am
Yeah, I'm seeing the potential of a race decided by less than 5 points.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Jeff Sessions Hack on June 01, 2018, 10:57:46 am
Going to be laughing at a lot of people when this turns out to be a VA-SEN 2006 redux.
I'm going to be laughing when Cruz wins by 10.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Politician on June 01, 2018, 11:16:41 am
Going to be laughing at a lot of people when this turns out to be a VA-SEN 2006 redux.
I'm going to be laughing when Cruz wins by 1.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Cory Booker on June 01, 2018, 11:17:39 am
Going to be laughing at a lot of people when this turns out to be a VA-SEN 2006 redux.
I'm going to be laughing when Cruz wins by 10.

Cruz will win 55 to 45 like Abbott


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on June 01, 2018, 11:29:52 am
Going to be laughing at a lot of people when this turns out to be a VA-SEN 2006 redux.
I'm going to be laughing when Cruz wins by 10.

Cruz will win 55 to 45 like Abbott

...what? Abbott will do way better than Cruz, and will win by much more than 10.


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Cory Booker on June 01, 2018, 01:18:36 pm
I was going based off assumption


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Blackacre on June 01, 2018, 02:35:05 pm
This IS bad news. Still Leans R, but a stronger lean than I thought.



Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: Politician on December 11, 2018, 05:05:48 pm
JUNK POLL!


Title: Re: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
Post by: History505 on December 12, 2018, 02:47:33 pm
Lol.