Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Gass3268 on June 13, 2018, 10:51:54 pm



Title: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: Gass3268 on June 13, 2018, 10:51:54 pm
Casey 44%
Barletta 27%

Source (http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/pa-franklin-marshall-poll-trump-tom-wolf-scott-wagner-bob-casey-lou-bareltta-20180613.html)


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: superbudgie1582 on June 13, 2018, 10:53:57 pm
Thats a very large percentage of "dont know".


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: darthpi on June 13, 2018, 11:00:10 pm
Thats a very large percentage of "dont know".

Franklin & Marshall *always* have a very high percentage of "don't know" until right before the election.

For example, their 2016 PA Senate polling: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?type=src&source_id=70 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?type=src&source_id=70)

And their 2010 PA Senate polling: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2010/polls.php?type=src&source_id=70 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2010/polls.php?type=src&source_id=70)


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: Xing on June 13, 2018, 11:01:48 pm
#CaseyUnder45, but yeah, no way are that many voters undecided.


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: Landslide Andy on June 13, 2018, 11:02:56 pm
F&M used to be a good pollster, I'm not sure what happened.

Anyway, remember when the real battlegrounds would be in the Obama/Trump states, as they would decide whether or not the GOP got a filibuster proof majority? lol


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: KingSweden on June 13, 2018, 11:05:50 pm
Trash, garbage, etc.

Tooooooooooo many undecideds


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: Landslide Andy on June 13, 2018, 11:21:35 pm
Anyway, remember when the real battlegrounds would be in the Obama/Trump states, as they would decide whether or not the GOP got a filibuster proof majority? lol

I remember when some Very Serious PeopleTM thought Debbie Stabenow was going to lose to Kid Rock and OH-Sen was Lean R.

LOL, I almost forgot about the inevitable Sen. Rock.


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: Lean Branson on June 14, 2018, 12:53:45 am
F&M used to be a good pollster, I'm not sure what happened.

Anyway, remember when the real battlegrounds would be in the Obama/Trump states, as they would decide whether or not the GOP got a filibuster proof majority? lol

I mean, they would've been if Clinton had won. The people still beating that drum after Trump's election were/are delusional morons.


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on June 14, 2018, 01:14:48 am
TOSS-UP!


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: Xing on June 14, 2018, 01:29:30 am
Anyway, remember when the real battlegrounds would be in the Obama/Trump states, as they would decide whether or not the GOP got a filibuster proof majority? lol

I remember when some Very Serious PeopleTM thought Debbie Stabenow was going to lose to Kid Rock and OH-Sen was Lean R.

LOL, I almost forgot about the inevitable Sen. Rock.

Yeah, I remember when people were predicting a filibuster-proof majority with Sen. Mandel, Sen. Rock, Sen. Duffy, and Sen. LePage.


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: Sir Mohamed on June 14, 2018, 01:33:35 am
Safe D, nothing to see here.


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: fridgeking on June 14, 2018, 06:40:07 am


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: Politician on June 14, 2018, 06:49:40 am
Prepare your butts libtards for Senators Mandel, Duffy, Rock, Comstock, and LePage!


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: Cory Booker on June 14, 2018, 08:32:17 am
Casey and Brown are golden to Democrats chances, just like Toomey and Portman were assets to the GOP.


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: MT Treasurer on June 14, 2018, 08:52:17 pm
Anyway, remember when the real battlegrounds would be in the Obama/Trump states, as they would decide whether or not the GOP got a filibuster proof majority? lol

Not really, no. MT has been considered Lean/Likely D ever since Zinke (lol) and Fox declined to run, and I donít recall anyone predicting that Manchin couldnít possibly win reelection. Itís true that most people underestimated Brown, Donnelly, and McCaskill, but letís not act as if Republicans or pundits were confidently predicting a GOP filibuster proof majority at any point. My initial Senate ratings were too R-friendly, but even I never bought Heitkamp being DOA because of polarization or Native Americans or whatever ridiculous argument people will come up with to "prove" that sheís vulnerable even in a massive D wave year.

Yeah, I remember when people were predicting a filibuster-proof majority with Sen. Mandel, Sen. Rock, Sen. Duffy, and Sen. LePage.

I donít. Rating those states Tossups or saying that they could become competitive under the right circumstances ≠ predicting that they will flip. I might be wrong, but I donít recall many people rating ME, MI, and WI Tossups, even in 2016 and 2017. With the benefit of hindsight, itís always easy to mock Republicans for making overconfident predictions, but even many Democrats on this site underestimated how pronounced the enthusiasm gap and how Democratic-leaning this election cycle in general would be (in part because most of us gave way too much weight to factors like the state of the economy and foreign policy issues). If you think itís only Republicans who are being "delusional" or "overconfident", you donít seem to remember 2014 and 2016 very well. Itís probably more accurate to say that many people have some sort of recency bias, underestimating how rapidly the political environment can change in a year or less. When Republicans lose badly this fall, Iím sure many Democrats and pundits will predict a D wave year in 2020 or 2022 (even under a Democratic president) and declare the GOP dead. These things happen after every election.

I remember when some Very Serious PeopleTM thought Debbie Stabenow was going to lose to Kid Rock and OH-Sen was Lean R.

One or two posters ≠ "people".


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: Bagel23 on June 14, 2018, 11:33:35 pm
Casey and Brown are golden to Democrats chances, just like Toomey and Portman were assets to the GOP.

Anyone Brown/Casey p/vp 2020?


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: Cory Booker on June 15, 2018, 08:33:49 am
Casey and Brown are golden to Democrats chances, just like Toomey and Portman were assets to the GOP.

Anyone Brown/Casey p/vp 2020?
Kamala Harris , Tim Ryan-4-Prez, Brown says he doesn't want to run for natl office


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: Speaker YE on June 15, 2018, 08:42:53 am
Casey and Brown are golden to Democrats chances, just like Toomey and Portman were assets to the GOP.

Anyone Brown/Casey p/vp 2020?
Kamala Harris , Tim Ryan-4-Prez, Brown says he doesn't want to run for natl office

Like that means so much this far out.


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: Landslide Andy on June 16, 2018, 12:36:15 am
Barletta's entire campaign so far seems to be based on how far he can get Trump's schlong down his throat.

Probably not the best strategy for a state he won by <1 point. It would be like Brad Ellsworth and Elaine Marshall doing nothing but talking about Hope and Change and how much they love Obama in 2010 and expecting that to rocket them to victory, lol.


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: Thunder98 on June 17, 2018, 05:24:15 pm
Safe D


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: PA is Lean D on June 18, 2018, 12:04:35 pm
Is somebody going to enter this poll into the database?


Title: Re: PA (Franklin & Marshall): Casey +17
Post by: Politician on June 18, 2018, 12:05:44 pm
Is somebody going to enter this poll into the database?
Maybe MT Treasurer, but mds only ever inputs R-friendly polls.


Title: PA: Franklin and Marshall College: Casey up 17 in PA
Post by: Landslide Andy on June 19, 2018, 07:48:03 pm
New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Franklin and Marshall College on 2018-06-10 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=42120180610070)

Summary: D: 44%, R: 27%, U: 28%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/93840024988851901-f-m-poll-release-june-2018.pdf)