Talk Elections

Would Bernie Sanders have done better or worse than Hillary Clinton in the state of Virginia in 2016?

Bernie would either win Virginia by 1% or less. Same with Trump

Worse for a few reasons


A. He probably wouldnt pick Tim Kaine

B. Virginia hates Bernie for some reason

Worse.  NOVA voters may be liberal, but they're latte liberals, not socialists.  

If Bernie wins Virginia, it's because he does better among rural, youth, and minority voters than Clinton did to mitigate his losses in NOVA, Henrico County, and Hampton Roads.

Worse, Bernie was a poor fit for Virginia due to it being really conservative in the rural areas. VA really likes interventionists and not isolationism.

Worse.  Trump would have won it.

This.

Given the atmosphere 2016 was, Trump probably would've created the 2004 map minus New Mexico and possibly Colorado.

It would have been closer but Nova was trending democratic no matter what it just depends on how much when comparing Sanders and Clinton's performance there's no way Trump would have won the state I'd say Sanders carries it by around 2-3%. Garry Johnson's Performance definitely increases a bit

Berni Sanders probably would not have elected Vice President Tіm Kaine, which would reduce his chances of winning in Virginia. Probably Trump in this state

Same as in real life.

Worse. I don't think he would have lost it but it probably would have been more of a tossup as election day approached, as opposed to it being a probable win for Clinton in 2016, even after the Comey incident.

Very slightly worse.  NOVA isn't exactly the (minority of) suburbs of Dallas that thought Trump was just too unbecoming; it would support any Democrat.

About the same. Worse in Nova and some black areas around hamptom roads, but he would do substantially better in VA 9th, 6th, 5th etc. enough to even it out.

It would've been Sanders 47-45 or something. Yes, beloved NoVA would still vote for him over Trump, but to RINO Tom's chagrin(?), the margin would be reduced. He'd still win Fairfax, Loudoun, and PWC by Obama margins. This is good, but not nearly as dominating as HRC.

He'd probably do worse than Obama but better than Clinton in the boonies, sure. The actual problem for him is the Hampton Roads area. I do not see Bernie's message reaching well to pretty much any demographic there. Hillary did not do particularly well here obviously, but surprisingly not as poorly as you may expect. Black turnout fell, but I suspect it would've fallen even harder with Bernie Sanders on the ballot instead.

Pretty much the same-he'd do worse there relatively to the nation but the nation would be more Democratic than irl so the two factors would roughly cancel each other out.

Sanders would have won it.
Yes, he would have done slightly worse but really no difference.

It's Florida he would have crashed in, because of his status as a "socialist", Cubans would have trended to trump.

Worse in NoVa and better in most of the rest of the state.

He Probably would have won by about 3%.

They did in real life...

Read that as West Virginia and voted better.

Worse, obviously. No question. I still think he would've won, though.

No they didn't. They still voted Republican overwhelmingly but they trended to Hillary.

Slightly worse but still would have won. People here thinking Trump would have won have this idea that NoVA dems are exclusively country club conservatives who are somehow opposed to economic aspects of "social democracy", as if VA didn't elect a Democrat campaigning on medicare expansion by nine points. Especially against someone as anti-intellectual and anti-institution as Trump. The type of voters you people are envisioning (Republican so repulsed by Trump they voted for Clinton) definitely exists but those people voted reliably for McCain and Romney and Dems still carried the state.

Hotter take: Bernie would have beaten Rubio as well, although that would have been a much closer race.

Hillary probably would have beaten Rubio as well, but just to illustrate how pointless the whole “X would have beaten Y” takes are; “Hillary would have beaten Trump” is an accurate take.

Worse, but he would still win it against Trump. Probably by 3 points or so.

Trump would have won Virginia against Bernie and would have won the popular vote against him too nationally. Sanders is far too left for the mainstream of America despite what a lot of his followers may think.

lol

Worse.  Sanders would have done better in West Virginia (not that it would have made the difference in either state).

lmao

Slightly worse, but I don't think that support would have gone to Trump. Sanders would have won 48-44 or 47-44.

+ Bigger 3rd party support in VA.

This. Turnout would've been slightly depressed and there would have been a slight boost potentially for the Libertarians. But I'm skeptical at the idea that a Sanders nomination would have allowed Trump to close a five point gap and at the idea that Virginian Democrats are a white suburban mom monolith that would rather vote for Trump over social democracy.

He'd do slightly worse, but still win comfortably.

The extent to which candidates being a "fit" for the electorate of a state affects the outcome is MASSIVELY overrated on here. 

Candidate quality matters way more, and Hillary was objectively a worse candidate overall than Sanders in 2016 in terms of electability.

If we assume Hillary doesn't pick Kaine, I'm not even sure she does better than Sanders in Virginia, despite "fit."

Worse, but only by a couple points and he still would've won.

Worse in Virginia by about 2 points, about 1 point better nationally though. Enough to give him a scarilingly narrow electoral vote victory

Worse, probably not bad enough to lose the state though.

It's obviously very unclear how the campaign would have played out, or what image VA swing voters would have of Bernie after a general election campaign. I suspect Trump would have leaned into "smart patriotic businessman vs crazy socialist" rather than "tough outsider vs corrupt establishment shill" -- this would probably pay off in e.g. the Atlanta suburbs but wouldn't be enough to flip Obama voters in VA.

(just making this post to be able to reply to a PM)

The margin may get a little tighter, but I would expect Bernie to crack 50 in Virginia unlike Hillary. It hardly matters because Bernie would've won Virginia against Trump anyway.

Worse.

Sanders would have done worse than Clinton given his economic views. VA would become a tossup in this scenario.

He would've done maginally worse if only his economic views were taken into account, but he still would have won Virginia. Voters don't care (or don't understand) policy positions.

I think Sanders would've lost, and done a lot worse than Hillsary given all the opposition research on him. He's a dirty candidate.

Sanders would be the kind of candidate the GOP's outdated "BUT HE'S SOCIALIST" whining would actually work against. My guess is even with the dead/illegal vote factored in, trump wins PV against sanders.

Maybe Virginia would have been closer to the NPV but since Sanders was a more electable candidate than Clinton in every way he would have performed several points better.

I think there's a strong chance that Sanders would have performed substantially worse in certain states not because he describes himself as a "democratic socialist," but because he is Jewish. Virginia is one of them.

Bernie would have done slightly worse, yet that guarantees him a victory due to how toxic Trump brand is in Virginia.

He'd do worse but still carry VA. Probably similar to Obama's 2012 margins.