Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Antonio the Sixth on June 18, 2018, 10:47:25 AM



Title: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 18, 2018, 10:47:25 AM
The old thread reached 85 pages, so I guess it's time for a new one.

For anyone who's joining us now, the M5S-Lega coalition government ostensibly "led" by Random Guy Giuseppe Conte has swiftly devolved into the Salvini Government, as the xenophobic neckbeard continues to monopolize attention with provocative statements and actions, like closing off Italian ports to the ships of NGOs rescuing migrants (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-44510002) (which is, you know, against international law, but who's counting?).

So yeah, good times.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Diouf on June 18, 2018, 11:36:49 AM
Lega first in the polls for the first time

()


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Tender Branson on June 18, 2018, 11:43:23 AM
Lega first in the polls for the first time.

Not surprising, considering 60% of Italians agree with Salvini's common-sense policy on immigration.

Also: Antonio, please remove your (broken) signature.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 18, 2018, 12:01:30 PM
Lega first in the polls for the first time

()

...well, it had to happen. Now let's see how long it takes for Salvini to topple the government, re-form the right coalition, and win an absolute majority. I say it won't be more than two years.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 18, 2018, 12:23:34 PM
Government's honeymoon period - Lega's especially. Not much can be read into that - remember where the PD were during the first phase of the Renzi government and where they ended up...

...of course the absolute state of all parties not in the government can be raised at this juncture, but, hey, it isn't as if MS5 (for instance) was in good nick going into the last election really, what with the failing municipal administrations etc.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 18, 2018, 12:39:27 PM
Government's honeymoon period - Lega's especially. Not much can be read into that - remember where the PD were during the first phase of the Renzi government and where they ended up...

The difference here is that Salvini, being technically a "junior" partner (despite having written 70% of the government's program) can always turn and blame M5S for everything he fails to do, while getting credit for everything he succeeds in. It's a win-win situation.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on June 18, 2018, 12:47:39 PM
I wonder who is actually voting for FI at this point - bored housewives who watch Berlusconi stations all day?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Tintrlvr on June 18, 2018, 12:59:17 PM
I wonder who is actually voting for FI at this point - bored housewives who watch Berlusconi stations all day?

Conservative southerners with memories longer than two years?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 18, 2018, 01:11:49 PM
Government's honeymoon period - Lega's especially. Not much can be read into that - remember where the PD were during the first phase of the Renzi government and where they ended up...

The difference here is that Salvini, being technically a "junior" partner (despite having written 70% of the government's program) can always turn and blame M5S for everything he fails to do, while getting credit for everything he succeeds in. It's a win-win situation.

Possibly, yes. But there's no way the government overall ends up unscathed by being in power, even if one of the parties in it is that lucky: it's actually quite likely that if that's the case it will be by cannibalising its own partner. No government of the Second Republic has been re-elected* and there's no reason (other than a certain understandable pessimism) to expect that to change...

(flash forward: government is defeated by an entirely new party of moronic populism as yet unknown. PD somehow manage to lose further support).

*Quite a fact when you think about it...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on June 18, 2018, 01:46:07 PM
Lega first in the polls for the first time

()
PD SURGE


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: DavidB. on June 18, 2018, 05:39:53 PM


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 18, 2018, 06:55:11 PM
Well, seems like Italy didn't learn the lesson 80 years ago :(

Still, wouldn't most Roma gypsies be either Italians or from other EU countries? (ie still can't be deported unless they make a crime). How many non EU Roma people can there be?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: DavidB. on June 18, 2018, 07:00:48 PM
Well, seems like Italy didn't learn the lesson 80 years ago :(

Still, wouldn't most Roma gypsies be either Italians or from other EU countries? (ie still can't be deported unless they make a crime). How many non EU Roma people can there be?
France did it too, in 2009, deporting them to Romania and Bulgaria. I believe there used to be certain options for EU member states to deport other EU nationals, for instance when they are homeless or do not have work. Not sure if that's still the case.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Classic Conservative on June 18, 2018, 07:45:55 PM
Why don’t people like the Roma? I’ve always been confused by that.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Devout Centrist on June 18, 2018, 09:47:28 PM
Why don’t people like the Roma? I’ve always been confused by that.
You can’t imagine why Certain People would dislike brown, vaguely Eastern itinerants?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: rob in cal on June 19, 2018, 12:51:15 AM
  Isn't it the perception, fair or unfair, that they are involved in tonnes of petty crimes, such as pick pocketing and various scams?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on June 19, 2018, 01:45:45 AM
Well, Roma people generally are not integrated with the rest of the society. At least in case of Poland the mechanism looked like this: in the sixties govt decided to ban nomadism and Roma people had to settle what was not really natural for them as they used to wander freely around the country (and not only). Until that moment they were always aliens to other nationalities, contacts were limited to some trade and parties (as Roma also used to be employed as musicians before II World War, as for now Roma music is still distinct music genre). There were a lot of negative stereotypes - as always with isolated, hermetic groups which about general populace do not know much. On the other hand many stereotypes are unfortunately true. Roma people generally have problem to get normal jobs as they are perceived as thieves (data is not easily accessible but generally in that case stereotype is reflection of reality) - but this is also self-enforcing stereotype because when some member of Roma community want to get job employer who knows that he or she is a Roma will not employ him. Also often Roma people make begging as their main source of income. The bigger social problems with Roma are obviously in countries like Slovakia (infamous Lunik XI https://www.google.pl/search?q=lunik+IX&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiy9pCkjd_bAhVIApoKHVB9B4w4FBD8BQgKKAE&biw=1707&bih=808), Hungary, Bulgaria or Romania where Roma population is the biggest and obviously anti-Roma sentiments are the strongest. I guess due to former nomadic lifestyle Roma people do not have any sort of need for taking care of their homes, as I seen some Roma districts also in Poland there were a lot of kitsch and dirt. Similarly cultural issues did not let them easy to live a lifestyle of the rest of society. Also Roma societies are strongly patriarchal and isolated, with strong distinction of Roma and non-Roma what also does not help with integration. There are a lot of conflicts in towns where there is strong Roma minority. But obviously there are Roma people who live normal, ordinary people lives. There are also positive stereotypes about Roma people, mainly those oriented around their freedom and musicality as people tend to romanticize times of Roma nomads. But negative ones dominate, and unfortunately they are often true.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 19, 2018, 01:56:06 AM


"Unfortunately, we can't kick out these people who are citizens of our country merely on the basis of their ethnicity (even though we'd very much like to)."

Yup, totally not racist or anything... ::)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: parochial boy on June 19, 2018, 03:14:30 AM
I see that Salvini is following the Kurz precedent of government by photo-opportunity


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on June 19, 2018, 03:48:01 AM
Why don’t people like the Roma? I’ve always been confused by that.
You can’t imagine why Certain People would dislike brown, vaguely Eastern itinerants?

It's deeper than that: Roma are normally even lower on the totem pole than similarly disliked or poorly integrated groups like Maghrebis, Somalis, Kashmiris and Afghans. In northern Sheffield, for instance, there a quite a lot of Slovakian Roma people who have a highly tense relationship with locals of all races, who associate them with all kinds of petty crime. Crucially though, a lot of the tension has deflated since a few years ago, when people like David Blunkett were starting to proclaim that riots would be breaking out any minute.

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/analysis/how-they-reduced-sheffield-s-boiling-pot-of-racial-tension-to-a-simmer-1-7860134

Anyway this is disturbing, although unfortunately not surprising.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Tender Branson on June 19, 2018, 03:59:07 AM
The Roma here are pretty well integrated and economically as well. I have never seen them as a problem.

Things changed a lot since the mid-1990s when right-wing extremist Franz Fuchs blew up and killed 3 of them (he lost both his hands as well and later hanged himself in his prison cell ... ironic, considering he had no hands left).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: jaichind on June 19, 2018, 08:12:14 AM
Why don’t people like the Roma? I’ve always been confused by that.

My visits to Rome over the years gives me the impression that
a) Pickpockets are a big problem in Rome
b) A lot of the Pickpockets are Roma.

If my impression represents how local Italians see things I can see why action to deport non-citizen Roma could have political traction.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 19, 2018, 08:24:18 AM
Transient groups on the margins of society are despised and maltreated the world over. It isn't very nice, but it also isn't unique to Europe and its various Gypsy populations. I gather that in North America they have these things called 'Reservations'.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: rob in cal on June 19, 2018, 10:13:31 AM
  So, what is going on with Salvini and the migrant ships? On the one hand he refuses to take the Acquarius, but still Italian coast guard ships are bringing in others migrants, with more coming soon on the Diciotti.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: rob in cal on June 22, 2018, 11:20:06 PM
  Is he talking about cleansing of cities of Roma or migrants or both?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 23, 2018, 03:46:07 AM
  Is he talking about cleansing of cities of Roma or migrants or both?

He'll let his supporters read into it what they want, of course.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Andrea on June 24, 2018, 04:56:34 PM
Second round of local elections took place today

Votes are being counted

PD will hold Ancona. Expected after first round result
PD is (surprisingly) ahead so far in Brindisi.

5 Stars are gaining Imola from PD. They are leading also in Avellino

Lega & Co take Terni as expected
They are ahead also in Massa

Pisa and Siena are too close to call. PD may lose both of them


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Andrea on June 24, 2018, 05:15:11 PM
Lega and allies have opened a lead in Pisa now. 52 to 48% when 55 out of 86 polling stations have been reported.

PD is 200 votes behind also in Siena now with 40/50 reported.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 24, 2018, 06:35:00 PM
Christ's sake. Disband and start over.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 25, 2018, 05:07:45 AM
Christ's sake. Disband and start over.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on June 25, 2018, 06:13:59 AM
Not sure about Pisa and Siena in particular, but isn't Tuscany a left stronghold?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 25, 2018, 07:08:44 AM
Very much so.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: DavidB. on June 25, 2018, 08:30:44 AM
The right indeed won Siena and Pisa.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: EPG on June 25, 2018, 02:48:40 PM
The Italian contradiction: Tuscany may be a historical left stronghold, but its left voters look quite a bit like Lega Nord voters from Lombardy.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 25, 2018, 02:50:04 PM
The Italian contradiction: Tuscany may be a historical left stronghold, but its left voters look quite a bit like Lega Nord voters from Lombardy.

What the hell is that supposed to mean?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 25, 2018, 06:12:56 PM
The right indeed won Siena and Pisa.

The former verging on 'Con gain Rhondda' territory, frankly.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: EPG on June 26, 2018, 01:33:00 PM
I didn't think it was controversial that Tuscan PCI-PDS-PD affinity, including its strength among small business people and above-average earners quite disproportionate to elsewhere in Italy, was a sort of puzzle that had to be explained historically. Put another way, a lot of relatively higher-income people voted left in Tuscany, who would have voted right elsewhere, including in standard models of party systems, and this is interesting.

There's no inherent socio-economic reason why the old PCI Tuscan base should still be PD voters, except "political culture and socialisation", which can be eroded over time, and is eroding rapidly. There are simply not that many sociological differences between 21st century Tuscany and, to take an example, Lombardy. The developments of different kinds of opposition to Italian national-liberalism that made Lombardy Christian/white, and Tuscany Communist/red, appear to simply not matter any more. What remains is sympathy, which is contestable.

This isn't controversial, is it? We already saw this realignment happening in the last elections. Tuscany votes a lot less PD than it used to vote PCI, but often districts in big cities like Milan vote more PD than they used to, back in the old party systems. This is a forum for comparative politics. Would we expect a generic Social Democratic party to win Siena or Pisa, the way PD used to? Would we expect them to do unusually well in Tuscany at all?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Senator Cris on June 29, 2018, 04:25:20 AM
New Bidimedia poll (http://sondaggibidimedia.com/sondaggio-bidimedia-28-giugno-18/).

M5S 28.6 (-3.8)
League 27.7 (+3)
PD 19.2 (+1.1)
FI 8.9 (-0.9)
FDI 4 (+0.4)
LEU 2.3 (=)
PAP 1.7 (+0.1)
+EU 1.7 (=)
NCI 0.9 (-0.2)
CPI 0.8 (+0.1)
PDF 0.7 (=)
Togheter (PSI-Greens) 0.5 (=)
Italy to Italians 0.5 (+0.1)
PC 0.4 (=)
SVP 0.4 (=)
Civic-Popular 0.3 (=)
Others 1.4 (+0.2)

Centre-right (League, FI, FDI, NCI) 41.5 (+2.3)
Centre-left (PD, +EU, Togheter, SVP, Civic-Popular) 22.1 (+1)

Results by region (http://sondaggibidimedia.com/sondaggio-bidimedia-28-giugno-18/3/)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 30, 2018, 06:29:20 AM
So there's been a boom in racist violence in Italy over the past month or two, and Salvini is calling it fake news.

POPULISM :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: SPQR on November 26, 2018, 09:10:19 AM
I tend to avoid talking about Italian politics lately, given its sad state right now, but it's only fair to give an update on the situation.

POLLS
Lega - 30,8% (17,4% in March GE)
Movimento 5 Stelle - 26,2% (32,7%)
PD - 17,1% (18,8%)
Forza Italia - 9,4% (14%)
Fratelli d'Italia - 3,9% (4,4%)
Liberi e Uguali - 2,6% (3,4%)
+Europa - 2,4% (2,6%)
Potere al Popolo - 2% (1,1%)

Threshold is at 3%

Lega keeps growing at an astonishing pace, at the expense of the M5S and its (former?) ally, Berlusconi's Forza Italia. The center-right bloc (Lega-Forza Italia-Fratelli d'Italia) would easily have an absolute majority [only 40% or so is necessary, given the electoral law mixing PR (66%) and uninominal seats (33%)], and there is talk that the next GE might be at the same time as the European Elections in May.
This is in part due to Salvini being costantly at the center of the stage, and making good (at least in the media) on his promises to stop immigration, while the M5S has lots of difficulties in claryifying who will benefit from its universal basic income proposal, and specifying its details.

PD has remained more or less costant, which is not too bad given how it's been waiting for the new congress ever since March (more on this below), while Potere al Popolo (which try to resemble Melenchon's France Insoumise) is trying to become the left's main party at the expense of Liberi e Uguali (which might not even be a thing anymore, since its components, Sinistra Italiana, former communists, and MDP, former members of PD, have fought very bitterly).




PD CONGRESS
After Renzi's resignation as secretary following the GE disaster, there's been lots of speculation about the future of PD. Now, the path to the next congress, and the open primaries to elect the new secretary, is officially on. The primaries should be at the beginning of March (possibly on the 3rd of March, 364 days after the last general elections...).
Renzi will not run, to the disappointment of his die-hard fans (which are still a good chunk of PD's members).
Zingaretti, Lazio's governor, is the frontrunner, trying to shift PD to the left and pretty much attacking everything that was done by PD under Renzi's leadership. Around Zingaretti there is a colition of the former minority and some of Renzi's supporters, such as former PM Gentiloni and former PD Secretary Franceschini (whose political history is based on jumping on the bandwagon).
Zingaretti is not very charismatic, and his main pros are the fact that he announced his candidacy early (the day after winning the regional elections, which were also on March 4th), and that many feel the need to move on after Renzi.

The more reformist candidates are Minniti, Martina and Richetti.
Minniti, former Minister of Interior, is known for the treaties signed with Libya concerning checks on migration and camps to contain those trying to sail towards Italy. Admittedly, at its peak and without any help from the EU, the migration crisis needed some kind of control, but his political platform is pretty much based on migration. Those who think that the only way to stop Salvini is to stop immigration support him, other are very tepid. Many of Renzi's supporters will support him.

Martina, former minister of Agriculture and at-interim secretary from March until now, is a more intermediate candidate between Zingaretti and Minniti. Nannicini, economist and Renzi's chief economic advisor, Orfini (PD's president), and Delrio (former Minister of Infrastructure and current PD whip in the House of Representatives) are amongst his main supporters.
Nannicini summarized Martina's platform as "pride and restlessness", therefore not wanting to do an U-turn on the work done by the PD-led governments in the last 5 years, while also being aware that the political situation is extremely serious, that errors were made and there need to be changes.
Martina's first proposal is to abolish the Bossi-Fini law which destroyed the management of legal immigration flows. This is in stark contrast to Minniti's approach. He's personally my favourite right now, if anything because he acknowledges the need to avoid the primary simply being a pro vs anti Renzi referendum, which would lead to nothing.

Lastly, Richetti is an unorthodox Renzi supporter, who has always tried to distinguish himself, at least in form if not in substance. He's running as the youngish candidate, but there has been very little policy-wise from him, and now that Martina is running as a more credible unorthodox Renzi supporter, there is talk that the two may join forces (as openly stated by Martina).

Amongst minor candidates, there are Boccia, representing the more openly pro-M5S wing which responds to Puglia's governor Emiliano; Damiano, left-wing former minister who may eventually support Zingaretti, and Corallo, a 30-year old from the youth organization who made a name for himself with controversial remarks on the social media against the party's leadership (and whom I know personally since he's from my .

Latest polls have it as:
Zingaretti 33%
Minniti 25%
Martina 15%
Richetti 8%
Boccia 4%
Damiano 2%
Corallo 1%

There will be two rounds of voting. The first one is for members-only, and the top three will then go to the open primaries. There, one needs 50%+1 of the votes in order to get an absolute majority in the National Assembly, otherwise the next secretary will be voted by the Assembly (thus leaving the door open to a deal between the second and third-placed, an "accusation" that Zingaretti is already throwing around).





Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: PSOL on November 26, 2018, 11:16:49 AM
I tend to avoid talking about Italian politics lately, given its sad state right now, but it's only fair to give an update on the situation.

POLLS
Lega - 30,8% (17,4% in March GE)
Movimento 5 Stelle - 26,2% (32,7%)
PD - 17,1% (18,8%)
Forza Italia - 9,4% (14%)
Fratelli d'Italia - 3,9% (4,4%)
Liberi e Uguali - 2,6% (3,4%)
+Europa - 2,4% (2,6%)
Potere al Popolo - 2% (1,1%)

Threshold is at 3%

Lega keeps growing at an astonishing pace, at the expense of the M5S and its (former?) ally, Berlusconi's Forza Italia. The center-right bloc (Lega-Forza Italia-Fratelli d'Italia) would easily have an absolute majority [only 40% or so is necessary, given the electoral law mixing PR (66%) and uninominal seats (33%)], and there is talk that the next GE might be at the same time as the European Elections in May.
This is in part due to Salvini being costantly at the center of the stage, and making good (at least in the media) on his promises to stop immigration, while the M5S has lots of difficulties in claryifying who will benefit from its universal basic income proposal, and specifying its details.

PD has remained more or less costant, which is not too bad given how it's been waiting for the new congress ever since March (more on this below), while Potere al Popolo (which try to resemble Melenchon's France Insoumise) is trying to become the left's main party at the expense of Liberi e Uguali (which might not even be a thing anymore, since its components, Sinistra Italiana, former communists, and MDP, former members of PD, have fought very bitterly).




PD CONGRESS
After Renzi's resignation as secretary following the GE disaster, there's been lots of speculation about the future of PD. Now, the path to the next congress, and the open primaries to elect the new secretary, is officially on. The primaries should be at the beginning of March (possibly on the 3rd of March, 364 days after the last general elections...).
Renzi will not run, to the disappointment of his die-hard fans (which are still a good chunk of PD's members).
Zingaretti, Lazio's governor, is the frontrunner, trying to shift PD to the left and pretty much attacking everything that was done by PD under Renzi's leadership. Around Zingaretti there is a colition of the former minority and some of Renzi's supporters, such as former PM Gentiloni and former PD Secretary Franceschini (whose political history is based on jumping on the bandwagon).
Zingaretti is not very charismatic, and his main pros are the fact that he announced his candidacy early (the day after winning the regional elections, which were also on March 4th), and that many feel the need to move on after Renzi.

The more reformist candidates are Minniti, Martina and Richetti.
Minniti, former Minister of Interior, is known for the treaties signed with Libya concerning checks on migration and camps to contain those trying to sail towards Italy. Admittedly, at its peak and without any help from the EU, the migration crisis needed some kind of control, but his political platform is pretty much based on migration. Those who think that the only way to stop Salvini is to stop immigration support him, other are very tepid. Many of Renzi's supporters will support him.

Martina, former minister of Agriculture and at-interim secretary from March until now, is a more intermediate candidate between Zingaretti and Minniti. Nannicini, economist and Renzi's chief economic advisor, Orfini (PD's president), and Delrio (former Minister of Infrastructure and current PD whip in the House of Representatives) are amongst his main supporters.
Nannicini summarized Martina's platform as "pride and restlessness", therefore not wanting to do an U-turn on the work done by the PD-led governments in the last 5 years, while also being aware that the political situation is extremely serious, that errors were made and there need to be changes.
Martina's first proposal is to abolish the Bossi-Fini law which destroyed the management of legal immigration flows. This is in stark contrast to Minniti's approach. He's personally my favourite right now, if anything because he acknowledges the need to avoid the primary simply being a pro vs anti Renzi referendum, which would lead to nothing.

Lastly, Richetti is an unorthodox Renzi supporter, who has always tried to distinguish himself, at least in form if not in substance. He's running as the youngish candidate, but there has been very little policy-wise from him, and now that Martina is running as a more credible unorthodox Renzi supporter, there is talk that the two may join forces (as openly stated by Martina).

Amongst minor candidates, there are Boccia, representing the more openly pro-M5S wing which responds to Puglia's governor Emiliano; Damiano, left-wing former minister who may eventually support Zingaretti, and Corallo, a 30-year old from the youth organization who made a name for himself with controversial remarks on the social media against the party's leadership (and whom I know personally since he's from my .

Latest polls have it as:
Zingaretti 33%
Minniti 25%
Martina 15%
Richetti 8%
Boccia 4%
Damiano 2%
Corallo 1%

There will be two rounds of voting. The first one is for members-only, and the top three will then go to the open primaries. There, one needs 50%+1 of the votes in order to get an absolute majority in the National Assembly, otherwise the next secretary will be voted by the Assembly (thus leaving the door open to a deal between the second and third-placed, an "accusation" that Zingaretti is already throwing around).




What’s the situation on the ground with the EU-Italian budget negotiations? How has that affected polls?



Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: rob in cal on November 29, 2018, 11:40:01 AM
  Any thoughts on the new immigration and security law now passed by the lower house. Does it go significantly in the direction that the League and other right wing parties want, or is it more for show?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: SPQR on December 03, 2018, 09:47:42 AM
  Any thoughts on the new immigration and security law now passed by the lower house. Does it go significantly in the direction that the League and other right wing parties want, or is it more for show?

It significantly hinders the current system built to integrate the migrants who are acknowledged the refugee status (which is widely seen as working well, ensuring that they learn Italian and do internships while in small communities), literally putting hundreds of people on the street.
There are some "common sense" measures in the bill, but mostly they are for show and will have a very negative impact on migrants' integration and on their lives.


As for the budget negotiations, the budget law is gradually losing popularity thanks to the sh*tshow that the government has put together.
There are still no details whatsover on who's gonna benefit from early retirement ("quota 100") and the universal basic income ("reddito di cittadinanza"). All it has caused has been a rise in the BTP-bund spread, and it now seems that the government will have to back down and decrease the deficit from 2.4% to 2%, but it's not clear what will make room for it.

Electorally wise, Lega has benefitted in the last weeks, probably because of the show they have made on immigration, and because they have delivered on the tax amnesty and (partially) on early retirement. M5S is still going down, also because of the many scandals concerning Di Maio and his father's firm (regarding unpaid taxes, buildings built without permits, and workers hired without a contract).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: SPQR on December 03, 2018, 09:48:25 AM
Also, regarding PD's primaries, Richetti has dropped out and officially endorsed Martina (they are now running as a Martina-Richetti ticket).
I'm curious to see the next few polls on the matter.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 03, 2018, 11:29:03 AM
Prediction: Renzi will randomly become Prime Minister again in like two decades.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Tintrlvr on December 03, 2018, 11:49:57 AM
Prediction: Renzi will randomly become Prime Minister again in like two decades.

Given the way Italian politics works, I'd be surprised if this didn't happen


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 05, 2018, 06:36:40 PM


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: SPQR on December 07, 2018, 04:18:19 AM
There's complete chaos in PD.
Minniti has dropped out, apparently after a bitter conversation on the phone with Renzi.
Renzi announced the creation of "civic committees" at his last Leopolda convention, two months ago, and it was always rumoured that they were the first stage of his new party.
He has done little to silence those rumours, and now did not throw his full support to Minniti, who left only 18 days after announcing his candidacy.

There's only 5 days left to present a new name, otherwise it will be a Zingaretti vs Martina showdown. Renzi's close supporters are in chaos, unless Bellanova (a female former unionist from Puglia, quite charismatic) runs I guess they will support Martina, but some are also open to joining Renzi's new party, even though the way he is behaving lately is alienating many more.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Velasco on December 07, 2018, 06:32:04 AM
I wonder if the new party launched by Renzi is going to be more similar to En Marche! or Ciudadanos. I have more doubts, however, concerning the viability of the project.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: SPQR on December 07, 2018, 06:38:16 AM
I wonder if the new party launched by Renzi is going to be more similar to En Marche! or Ciudadanos. I have more doubts, however, concerning the viability of the project.

It's not official, to be clear. And yesterday night he said that he has no intention of launching a new party.
But, speaking as somebody who is a PD member and knows a few people close to Renzi, it seems highly likely.

Amongst the possible names for this party there were "Libdem" and "Cittadini", which is Italian for Ciudadanos...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Lord Halifax on December 07, 2018, 08:26:09 AM
I wonder if the new party launched by Renzi is going to be more similar to En Marche! or Ciudadanos. I have more doubts, however, concerning the viability of the project.

It's not official, to be clear. And yesterday night he said that he has no intention of launching a new party.
But, speaking as somebody who is a PD member and knows a few people close to Renzi, it seems highly likely.

Amongst the possible names for this party there were "Libdem" and "Cittadini", which is Italian for Ciudadanos...

:D


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: TheSaint250 on December 07, 2018, 08:32:39 AM
I wonder if the new party launched by Renzi is going to be more similar to En Marche! or Ciudadanos. I have more doubts, however, concerning the viability of the project.

It's not official, to be clear. And yesterday night he said that he has no intention of launching a new party.
But, speaking as somebody who is a PD member and knows a few people close to Renzi, it seems highly likely.

Amongst the possible names for this party there were "Libdem" and "Cittadini", which is Italian for Ciudadanos...

Macron did try to get him involved in his hypothetical new European group iirc. Interesting that Renzi is just going for an entirely new party, though.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 11, 2018, 03:20:16 PM
God Renzi seems to be losing brain cells by the day. This stunt is only going to leave him more irrelevant than ever before. He could have had the decency to go quietly into the night and become a celebrity political commentator or something, but no, he insists on dragging this out and making a fool of himself. It's really a shame - the guy had a lot of potential.

Hopefully Zingaretti wins and this circus ends quickly.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: SPQR on December 12, 2018, 04:40:43 AM
Yesterday the deputies closer to Renzi met to decide how to approach the congress.
A few refused to go after Martina criticized Renzi's words on the party ("I should have used a flamethrower"). The majority gave a mandate to negotiate with Martina, but a few, stubborn supporters refused to join the "reformist front" and so we now have a new ticket, Giachetti/Ascani.
Giachetti is a deputy, former mayor candidate in Rome in 2016 (lost badly the second round against M5S' Raggi), while Ascani is a young deputy from Umbria and would be the vice-secretary.

I am curious to see how it turns out, I'd say that they would be behind both Zingaretti and Martina.



Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: SPQR on December 12, 2018, 04:41:29 AM
God Renzi seems to be losing brain cells by the day. This stunt is only going to leave him more irrelevant than ever before. He could have had the decency to go quietly into the night and become a celebrity political commentator or something, but no, he insists on dragging this out and making a fool of himself. It's really a shame - the guy had a lot of potential.

Hopefully Zingaretti wins and this circus ends quickly.

Just to be clear - a win by Zingaretti would not ensure "peace" in the Italian center-left at all.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: rob in cal on January 16, 2019, 12:02:44 PM
  Yesterday a lower house committee passed a bill to allow what I interpret to mean a national initiative and referendum law, like we have in many US states and in Switzerland in which new laws may be voted on in a referendum if the proposal gets enough signatures. Right now Italy allows votes to approve existing laws, I believe, but this would be a big new step toward direct democracy. Does this have a good chance of going forward, and how do the non-government parties view it?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 17, 2019, 02:20:11 PM
  Yesterday a lower house committee passed a bill to allow what I interpret to mean a national initiative and referendum law, like we have in many US states and in Switzerland in which new laws may be voted on in a referendum if the proposal gets enough signatures. Right now Italy allows votes to approve existing laws, I believe, but this would be a big new step toward direct democracy. Does this have a good chance of going forward, and how do the non-government parties view it?

Muh direct democracy has always been one of M5S' major causes. Lega is less enthused about it, but they might still go for it as a way of getting concessions elsewhere (like on the Turin-Lyon high speed rail project, which M5S opposes).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Andrea on January 22, 2019, 05:07:57 PM
On Sunday a by-election was held in the Cagliari 1 constituency after the resignation of Andrea Mura (5 Stars, then expelled for lack of attendance)

Results

Andrea Frailis (Progressives for Sardinia) 40.46% ELECTED
Luca Caschili (5 Stars) 28.92%
Daniela Noli (Northern League-Forza Italia-Brothers of Italy) 27.8%
Enrico Balletto (Casapound) 2.81%

turnout 15.54%


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on January 22, 2019, 05:42:11 PM
Andrea Frailis (Progressives for Sardinia) 40.46% ELECTED
I assume this is some sort of local PD satellite?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on January 22, 2019, 05:49:35 PM
Andrea Frailis (Progressives for Sardinia) 40.46% ELECTED
I assume this is some sort of local PD satellite?
Yes.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on January 22, 2019, 09:09:00 PM
So should we take this as some sort of shift away from the League and M5S back towards the left, or was Frailis a really strong candidate?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: rc18 on January 22, 2019, 09:49:29 PM
Turnout was just 15% compared to 67% in the general election so it can't really tell us anything.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: rob in cal on January 23, 2019, 03:01:08 PM
  Intresting that FI and the League still ran together, and that the League ran against its coalition partner.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 23, 2019, 04:48:15 PM
So should we take this as some sort of shift away from the League and M5S back towards the left, or was Frailis a really strong candidate?

Probably the latter, there is also localism at play. National polling suggests that there is almost a majority for the right percent-wise, and a clear majority seat wise. This is thanks to Lega of course, so how much this trend benefits Italy has yet to be seen. It's also possible the seat was a M5S-Left battleground before, so M5S losing votes to the Right pushes the left ahead.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Famous Mortimer on January 23, 2019, 10:30:33 PM
So should we take this as some sort of shift away from the League and M5S back towards the left, or was Frailis a really strong candidate?

Probably the latter, there is also localism at play. National polling suggests that there is almost a majority for the right percent-wise, and a clear majority seat wise. This is thanks to Lega of course, so how much this trend benefits Italy has yet to be seen. It's also possible the seat was a M5S-Left battleground before, so M5S losing votes to the Right pushes the left ahead.

I imagine there's also quite a large number of people who are happy to elect left-wingers at the local level but don't want to do so at the national level. Happy to give the left control of local infrastructure, not so happy to give them control of immigration policy.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Diouf on February 15, 2019, 10:13:50 AM
EMG polling

54% of Lega voters prefer a coalition with the centre-right, while 44% prefer the current coalition with M5S.

()


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Umengus on February 25, 2019, 04:10:18 PM
Yesterday was the regional election in Sardignia
For now (1608/1840):

right: 52 %
left: 30 %
MI5: 9 %

So a new landslide for Salvini & co, after the 02/10 Abruzzes election (right: 49 left 30 MI5 19) and a massive rout for MI5.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on February 28, 2019, 04:56:58 PM
How much Zingaretti can be treated as seriously centre-left candidate? I've seen his program which was ok, I know who supports him and I do not have positive opinion about Italian political system and that makes me doubt that he will be any plausible alternative to Renzi or his opponents in open primary.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: rob in cal on March 01, 2019, 12:09:46 PM
http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2019/03/01/migrant-arrivals-by-sea-down-95-in-2019-salvini_eeb8a43a-829d-4a28-a08d-65b4d34f7a27.html

Looks like Salvini is having some success with the flagship policy of his party.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: SPQR on March 02, 2019, 06:00:12 PM
How much Zingaretti can be treated as seriously centre-left candidate? I've seen his program which was ok, I know who supports him and I do not have positive opinion about Italian political system and that makes me doubt that he will be any plausible alternative to Renzi or his opponents in open primary.
Don't really like him at all.
He's likely to win tomorrow based on the fact that he is a generic anti-Renzi, leftist candidate. But time and time again he has shown no backbone when it mattered, such as when he refused to run for mayor in 2013 preferring to run for Lazio's governorship, even though the former was where he was truly needed. Even now he's inconsistent, changing opinion on a weekly basis based on the polls (such as his stance on an alliance with M5S).

I'll vote for Martina (and stay at the poll from 7am till 9pm...), since his message is much more convincing (correct the path, and not just go some other unclear direction), and he's more likely to unite the party and the center-left. But we'll see.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on March 03, 2019, 05:01:21 PM
Zingaretti smashed, 65-70% of votes. According to media almost 1,8 milion people voted.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Diouf on March 18, 2019, 06:21:23 AM
Opposition in M5S towards Lega's promised flat tax:

Quote
Minister for the South Barbara Lezzi said Monday that she thinks it could be too expensive to press ahead with plans to introduce a two-tier flat tax on income. "The flat tax costs 60 billion euros and our country cannot afford it," Lezzi, a M5S member, told Radio 24. "So it is a promise that cannot be kept".
    Deputy Premier, Interior Minister and League leader Matteo Salvini on Monday dismissed reports that the 'flat tax' could cost up to 60 billion euros, saying 12 to 15 billion euros should suffice. Another senior M5S member, Economy Ministry Undersecretary Laura Castelli, said even that would be too much.
    "I don't think one should keeping shooting for unreachable things," Castelli told reporters.
    "Even if it were 15 billion, today the (cost of the) reform of (income tax) IRPEF is unsustainable, so it is necessary to reorganize the existing system".

http://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2019/03/18/flat-tax-promise-cant-be-kept-lezzi_7274c3f3-244e-4873-b27f-53857d663635.html


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Diouf on March 19, 2019, 06:55:25 AM
M5S behind PD in SWG poll

()


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: rob in cal on March 20, 2019, 11:13:34 AM
http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2019/03/20/man-hijacks-bus-carrying-pupils-and-sets-it-alight_c0d038c7-5b62-45ec-afa4-2429eceb6839.html

Anti Salvini activist from Senegal gets carried away with his feelings.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Umengus on March 24, 2019, 05:21:49 PM

World Elects
‏ @ElectsWorld
19 minil y a 19 minutes

🇮🇹#Italy, #Basilicata regional election exit #poll :

#Bardi-Center Right Coalition : 42-44 %
#Trerotola-Center Left Coalition : 36-38 %
#Mattia-#M5S : 16-18 %

#Affaritalianiit, #ElezioniBasilicata #Basilicata
1 réponse 4 Retweets 6 j'aime


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 26, 2019, 09:32:04 AM
It's pretty funny that the much vaunted basic income from the 5 Stars is basically Hartz IV or universal credit; it's a means tested debit card that can only be used in certain stores for certain purposes and lasts for three years max, and you have to accept any job offered to you.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: SPQR on April 27, 2019, 09:08:47 AM
It's pretty funny that the much vaunted basic income from the 5 Stars is basically Hartz IV or universal credit; it's a means tested debit card that can only be used in certain stores for certain purposes and lasts for three years max, and you have to accept any job offered to you.
Well, any of the first 3 offers that you get. But for the rest I agree, it's nothing new.


Update on the polls average:
Lega: 32,8%
Movimento 5 Stelle: 22,2%
Partito Democratico: 20,6%
Forza Italia: 9,4%
Fratelli d'Italia (Right-wing Eurosceptic): 4,9%
+Europa (Liberal Pro-Europe): 3,2%
La Sinistra (Left): 3%
Verdi (Greens): 1,4%

PD's rise following the victory of Zingaretti in the primaries in March has now come to a halt, as M5S somehow manages to slowly rise, while Forza Italia is collapsing even though Berlusconi is running for the European Elections.
La Sinistra, the new leftist bloc which replaces MDP (part of which went into PD following Zingaretti's win), polls decently.


Together with the European Elections, in one month there will also be regional elections in Piemonte (incumbent: PD) and a number of important cities, amongst which Florence and Bari (both incumbents: PD).
Tomorrow there will be the first round of voting in a few Sicilian municipalities (since they are a Special Statute Regions they choose their own date), but only Caltanissetta is worth watching, and even that is a pretty small town.
It will be interesting to see whether in the second round (Italian law for municipal elections has a second round between the top two if nobody gets to 50%) M5S voters will support the center-right, and viceversa, as has been the case in the past. The daily fight between Salvini and Di Maio may lead to some surprises.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 29, 2019, 01:54:50 PM
It's pretty funny that the much vaunted basic income from the 5 Stars is basically Hartz IV or universal credit; it's a means tested debit card that can only be used in certain stores for certain purposes and lasts for three years max, and you have to accept any job offered to you.

I know right?? A government that actually tried to implement an even modest UBI with no strings attached would actually have deserved real praise for trying something new in social policy. But obviously that was never going to happen in a government controlled by Salvini...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Andrea on May 13, 2019, 07:32:03 AM
II round of local elections in Sicily held yesterday.

M5S take Caltanisetta comfortably (58.85%). In first round the FI-UDC candidate was leading 37 to 20%.
5 Stars also win in Castelvetrano (64.47%) starting from  behind after first round.

In Gela, the candidate supported by local lists endorsed by PD and Forza Italia is elected over the candidate supported by FdI, UDC and Lega. 52.45 to 47.55%. In the first round the winner was already leading 36 to 30%.

In Mazara del Vallo the candidate supported by local lists endorsed by centre-left have beaten the Lega candidate. 52.41 to 47.59%. In first round it was 31 to 24% for local centre-left candidate.

In Monreale the candidate supported by local lists and Musumeci easily beats the rival supported by centre-left local lists. 55.73 to 44.27%. In first round it was closer (23.9 to 21.2).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: SPQR on May 26, 2019, 06:57:04 PM
Lega got more than the latest polls from 2 weeks ago, and about as much as the polls from a couple months ago.
M5S fell below what was considered as Di Maio's "survival threshold". They are in lots of trouble, they also suffered from the low turnout in the South.
PD are now the second party so it's a victory, still lots of work to do in the Southern regions. Also, the result in Umbria is horrible (half the votes of Lega in a former leftwing stronghold).
Fratelli d'Italia also appear to have a very strong result, they managed to survive and thrive regardless of Lega's great growth.
La Sinistra below Europa Verde is just LOL.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Senator Incitatus on May 26, 2019, 07:13:47 PM
I have very mixed thoughts on his agenda, but it's clear to me that Salvini is one of the most talented campaigners in the world right now. Among the great nations, put him in a class with Modi and maybe no others.

He is adept at turning great popularity into great power. This, of course, can be dangerous. Hoping for the best.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 27, 2019, 01:11:42 AM
Lega thankfully finished just below the PCI's high point in 1976 (34.33% vs 34.37%). Still absolutely, bone-chillingly, existentially terrifying result.

We can only hope that this will be like PD in 2014. This is the high point, and now it's all downhill.

Otherwise, if these results hold, Italy could truly turn into the next Hungary.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Umengus on May 27, 2019, 06:34:51 AM
Lega thankfully finished just below the PCI's high point in 1976 (34.33% vs 34.37%). Still absolutely, bone-chillingly, existentially terrifying result.

We can only hope that this will be like PD in 2014. This is the high point, and now it's all downhill.

Otherwise, if these results hold, Italy could truly turn into the next Hungary.

good one. This election is amazing for the right. Vox populi, vox dei.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Andrea on May 27, 2019, 08:04:38 AM
Looking at MEPs elected (based on preferences)

PD

North West: Pisapia (Milan former mayor) leads as expected with 266,000 votes. Tinagli did well (just over 100,000). Then Majorino (cabinet member in Milan where PD performed well) and incumbent Toia (also from Lombardia). Final seat goes to incumbent Brando Benifei (from Liguria).
Incumbents Bresso and Viotti lose their seats. For Viotti it was more or less expected given PD reduction in seats, Bresso less so as she was among the "heads of the list". This means no candidates from Piemonte is elected in PD list which is surprising as Piemonte is bigger than Liguria.  Maybe the choices of top candidates (Bresso and Morando) for Piemonte wasn't good. Long running political careers but not as dynamic anymore.

North East: Calenda gets 275,000 preferences. Newcomers Elisabetta Gualimini (vice president of  Emilia Romagna region) is second. Incumbent De Castro and former MP and MEP Moretti (Veneto) take the other 2 seats.
2 incumbents lost here (De Monte and Kyenge). Laura Puppato doesn't get in either (6th, around 4,000 votes below Moretti).

Central....this constituency is behind in the update. 2,500 polling stations not added, almost all in Rome. But Bonafè and Sassoli are re-elected. Bartolo is third. Currently MEP Nicola Danti is in 4th but Rome will be a big boost for Smeriglio and Gualtieri (incumbent) who will both pass him and fight for the last seat. Bartolo is elected also in the Islands, so he will have to choose where to pick the seat.

South: Franco Roberti leads with 148,000 votes. Then Ferrandino, Cozzolino and Picierno who edges Gentile by some hundreds. It is basically only Campania.

Islands: Pietro Bartolo and Caterina Chinnici over 100,000. Andrea Soddu (from Sardinia) is the third in case Bartolo opts for Central constituency.


Forza Italia

In NW...Berlusconi and Salini (incumbent). Laura Comi is third and her destiny depends on where Silvio will take the seat

NE..apparently no seats for FI. So Pivetti doesn't get in

Centre...Tajani for sure. De Meo is currently second but Rome is missing and Mussolini can make up some ground there but 10,000 is too much IMO.

South: Berlusconi followed by incumbent Patriciello and Martusciello.

Islands: Giuseppe Milazzo is second to Berlusconi.


5 stars

NW...top of the list Danzì doesn't make it. Incumbents Evi and Beghin are re-elected

NE..incumbent Zullo tops the poll followed by Pignedoli. Both elected

Central...incumbent Castoldo along Daniela Rondinelli should be the 2 elected. Livorno's outgoing mayor Nogarin ends third. Agea  and Tamburrano are 4-5th and lose their seats.

South..here they should take 6 seats. So Adinfoli, D'Amato, Ferrara, Piedicini are re-elected.  Chiara Gemma come first and Mario Furore takes the last seat.

Islands..Giarrusso closely followed by incumebent Corrao are elected.


Fratelli d'Italia

well, Meloni everywhere. Fitto is second in South and I suppose he will take the seat there when Meloni opts for Central (or somewhere else) (edit: well, Meloni will remain in Rome...stupid me)
Elisabetta Gardini is third in NE. So out regardless of Meloni's choices. So now she can defect to something even more on the right




Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 27, 2019, 12:16:09 PM
()

Lega has successfully made themselves the preferred option for a good number of M5S voters. One has to imagine that calling early elections and forming a pure right government is in the back of Salvini's mind right now.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 27, 2019, 01:57:55 PM
In local elections, Lega has taken Piedmont, defeating the PD incumbent and giving it a full sweep of the big three Northern regions. The right looks set to make gains at the mayoral level too, but the left is holding up decently given the circumstances. M5S is imploding - its incumbent in Livorno didn't even make it to the runoff.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Vaccinated Russian Bear on May 27, 2019, 02:49:02 PM
How is the electorate of the European elections compared to one of the general elections?

Are those who vote in European elections are more educated/urban etc?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on May 27, 2019, 05:12:59 PM
Otherwise, if these results hold, Italy could truly turn into the next Hungary.

I don't think I agree with this. Remember that Fidesz regularly gets about half of the vote in Hungary, with another 10-20% going to Almost-Literal Arrow Cross. Lega getting a third of the vote in Italy is absolutely horrifying (especially since it's overperforming in places like Umbria) and we definitely shouldn't understate how appalling it is that a party like Lega and an overgrown CoDbro like Salvini are in the driver's seat in a G7 country, but I don't think we should compare what's happening here to a country in which "national conservatives :) :) :)" and outright fascists get literally two-thirds of the vote between them.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Lord Halifax on May 27, 2019, 05:16:19 PM
Otherwise, if these results hold, Italy could truly turn into the next Hungary.

I don't think I agree with this. Remember that Fidesz regularly gets about half of the vote in Hungary, with another 10-20% going to Almost-Literal Arrow Cross. Lega getting a third of the vote in Italy is absolutely horrifying (especially since it's overperforming in places like Umbria) and we definitely shouldn't understate how appalling it is that a party like Lega and an overgrown CoDbro like Salvini are in the driver's seat in a G7 country, but I don't think we should compare what's happening to a country in which "national conservatives :) :) :)" and unapologetic fascists get literally two-thirds of the vote between them.

What does that mean?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 27, 2019, 05:16:29 PM
Otherwise, if these results hold, Italy could truly turn into the next Hungary.

I don't think I agree with this. Remember that Fidesz regularly gets about half of the vote in Hungary, with another 10-20% going to Almost-Literal Arrow Cross.
small side-note: Jobbik were badly obliterated this election. :)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on May 27, 2019, 05:18:14 PM
Otherwise, if these results hold, Italy could truly turn into the next Hungary.

I don't think I agree with this. Remember that Fidesz regularly gets about half of the vote in Hungary, with another 10-20% going to Almost-Literal Arrow Cross. Lega getting a third of the vote in Italy is absolutely horrifying (especially since it's overperforming in places like Umbria) and we definitely shouldn't understate how appalling it is that a party like Lega and an overgrown CoDbro like Salvini are in the driver's seat in a G7 country, but I don't think we should compare what's happening to a country in which "national conservatives :) :) :)" and unapologetic fascists get literally two-thirds of the vote between them.

What does that mean?

A CoDbro (from Call of Duty and bro) is the word I use for the sort of person who spends his (or her, but usually his) leisure time calling Twitch streamers racial slurs. I have no idea if this is the sort of thing Salvini actually does with his time but it's more an aesthetic and a state of mind than an actual interest in video games specifically.

Otherwise, if these results hold, Italy could truly turn into the next Hungary.

I don't think I agree with this. Remember that Fidesz regularly gets about half of the vote in Hungary, with another 10-20% going to Almost-Literal Arrow Cross.
small side-note: Jobbik were badly obliterated this election. :)

Thank God for small blessings.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: rob in cal on May 27, 2019, 05:22:38 PM
  I thought that Jobbik had made a big ideological u-turn in the last few years?  Anyway, is it correct that Lega won Perugia? If so, what is going on in Umbria, I thought that was kind of a junior Tuscany politically?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 27, 2019, 05:25:42 PM
Otherwise, if these results hold, Italy could truly turn into the next Hungary.

I don't think I agree with this. Remember that Fidesz regularly gets about half of the vote in Hungary, with another 10-20% going to Almost-Literal Arrow Cross. Lega getting a third of the vote in Italy is absolutely horrifying (especially since it's overperforming in places like Umbria) and we definitely shouldn't understate how appalling it is that a party like Lega and an overgrown CoDbro like Salvini are in the driver's seat in a G7 country, but I don't think we should compare what's happening here to a country in which "national conservatives :) :) :)" and outright fascists get literally two-thirds of the vote between them.

I mean, fair, that was a bit hyperbolic in terms of the exact proportions. However, you're forgetting that Lega is not the only party that's trying to copy the Fidesz model. FdI has basically the exact same positions and they polled 6%. And I have no doubt that Berlusconi would be happy to go along with such a political project as long as his, er, "interests" are protected. That brings the total vote for a likely radical right coalition to almost 50%. And if M5S keeps imploding, at least a few of its voters will flock to that banner.

I guess that's still not quite Hungary levels of reactionary dominance, but it's about where Poland is right now.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on May 27, 2019, 05:28:50 PM
I guess that's still not quite Hungary levels of reactionary dominance, but it's about where Poland is right now.

And I'd much much rather live in Poland than in Hungary.

I'm not trying to dismiss your fears here; I share them, for the most part, possibly even more so since I'm also personally worried about elements of the Catholic Church possibly falling in step with this zeitgeist in Italy. But you and I both know how resilient Italian culture-as-such is ("upstream from politics", as the reactionaries would say). One of the worst lasting legacies of the Eastern Bloc is the fact that society in countries like Poland and Hungary doesn't have that resilience.

ETA: Also, if we're going to discuss with maps, I'd be remiss not to mention that, Umbria's sprint away from its traditions notwithstanding, the center-left is shaping up to have a much firmer "geographic floor" in ER and Tuscany, so to speak, than the Hungarian left/liberals have. MSZP won a total of one constituency outside Budapest last year. That's no small matter for people who live in the relevant parts of these countries and experience mostly their local cultures.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 27, 2019, 05:52:49 PM
What exactly is Berlusconi aiming for in the next few years?

Well he's currently going to sit in the EU Parliament, which may be his 'retirement home' unless Lega falls apart or he successfully shuffles his positions to copy Salvini, and the voters accept such a shift.

Bringing up Berlusconi though is important to the discussion of how much Legas rise is do to their own success. In some way Salvini is merely the new master of Berlusconi's machine. One can't forget the man used anti-elite, anti-corruption, and anti-government populism before it was the hip new thing to become the default PM of Italy. There was always at least 40% of the vote waiting for him, usually more until M5S supplanted his movement. In this regard then, the current position of Salvini and Co is merely a return to the established system that began in the 90s, expect anti-migrant populism is also attached to Berlusconi's old political machine.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Andrea on May 28, 2019, 05:55:33 AM
Mayoral elections in main cities

Firenze: Nardella (CL) 57%
Bari: De Caro (CL) 66.3%
Bergamo: Gori (CL) 55.3%
Lecce: Salvemini (CL) 50.9%
Modena: Muzzarelli (CL) 53.4%
Pesaro: Ricci (CL) 57.3%

Perugia: Romizi (CR) 59.8%
Pavia: Fracassi (CR) 53%
Pescara:  Masci (CR) 51.3%
Urbino: Gambini (CR) 55.1%
Vibo Valentia: Limbardo (CR) 59.5%



Run offs

Potenza: Guarnte (CR) 44.7% Tramutoli (local lists) 27.4%
Campobasso: D'Alessandro (CR) 39.7% Gravina (5 Stars) 29.4%
Ascoli: Fioravanti (CR) 37.4% Celani (local lists) 21.4%
Avellino: Cipriano (CL) 32.4% Festa (local lists) 28.7%
Cremona: Galimberti (CL) 46.4% Malvezzi (CR) 41.7%
Cesena: Lattuca (CL) 42,8% Rossi (CR) 33.8%
Ferrara: Fabbri (CR) 48.4% Modesini (CL) 31.8%
Foggia: Landella (CR) 46.1% Cavaliere (CL) 33.7%
Forlì: Zattini (CR) 45.8% Calderoni (CL) 37.2%
Livorno: Salvetti (CL) 34.2% Romiti (CR) 26.6%
Prato: Biffoni (CL) 47.2% Spada (CR) 35.1%
Reggio Emilia: Vecchi (CL) 49.1% Salati (CR) 28.2%
Rovigo: Gambarella (CR) 38.2% Gaffeo (Cl) 25.4%
Verbania: Albertella (CR) 45.8% Marchionini (CL) 37.5%
Vercelli: Corsaro (CR) 41.9% Forte (CL) 24.7%


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Senator Incitatus on May 28, 2019, 10:57:03 PM
How much higher is Lega's ceiling? One must imagine that some lingering resistance exists in the south  from the days when they were a strictly chauvinist Northern party. If they can overcome that in the approaching years... could they form a true majority?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: swl on May 30, 2019, 06:19:54 AM
Apparently, following the bad result in the European election,  M5S members are having today a confidence vote on Luigi du Maio (via their online platform)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: jaichind on May 30, 2019, 08:12:16 AM
 Salvini ready to end Italy government unless M5S backs tax plan


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Andrea on May 30, 2019, 03:54:16 PM
Apparently, following the bad result in the European election,  M5S members are having today a confidence vote on Luigi du Maio (via their online platform)

Result: 80% in favour of Di Maio


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Andrea on June 09, 2019, 06:16:15 PM
Results of run offs held today

Potenza: Guarnte (CR) 44.7% Tramutoli (local lists) 27.4%

Guarnte 50.5% (with one polling station left to report)


Campobasso: D'Alessandro (CR) 39.7% Gravina (5 Stars) 29.4%

Gravina over 60% with 45 polling stations reported out of 56


Ascoli: Fioravanti (CR) 37.4% Celani (local lists) 21.4%

Fioravanti 59.31%

Cremona: Galimberti (CL) 46.4% Malvezzi (CR) 41.7%

Galimberti 55.94%

Avellino: Cipriano (CL) 32.4% Festa (ex PD) 28.7%

Festa (ex PD) 51.52%

Cesena: Lattuca (CL) 42,8% Rossi (CR) 33.8%

Lattuca 55.74%

Ferrara: Fabbri (CR) 48.4% Modesini (CL) 31.8%

Fabbri 56.77%

Foggia: Landella (CR) 46.1% Cavaliere (CL) 33.7%

Landella 53.28%

Forlì: Zattini (CR) 45.8% Calderoni (CL) 37.2%

Zattini 53.06%



Livorno: Salvetti (CL) 34.2% Romiti (CR) 26.6%

Salvetti 63.32%


Prato: Biffoni (CL) 47.2% Spada (CR) 35.1%

Biffoni 56.12%

Reggio Emilia: Vecchi (CL) 49.1% Salati (CR) 28.2%

Vecchi 63.31%


Rovigo: Gambarella (CR) 38.2% Gaffeo (Cl) 25.4%

Gaffeo 50.94%

Biella: Claudio Corradino (CR) 39.95% Dino Gentile (local lists) 27.57%


Corradino 51.11%

Vercelli: Corsaro (CR) 41.9% Forte (CL) 24.7%

Corsaro 54.8%


Verbania: Albertella (CR) 45.8% Marchionini (CL) 37.5%

Marchionini 50.62%


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 09, 2019, 09:40:27 PM
Not a bad result for the center-left at all, honestly. Obviously losing Ferrara hurts, and there are a few other losses, but Ferrara was a given after the first round results, and everywhere else we held up decently. It's also nice to see Livorno coming back to the fold, if also expected. Almost in almost CS vs CD runoffs, the margin for the CS candidate has improved compared to the first round, showing either that CS voters are more consistent voters (since turnout dropped as a whole) or that M5S and other voters are closer to the left than to the right again (which, if confirmed, is terrible news for Luigi Di Maio). Either way, this relativizes the Salvini Wave of two week ago a little bit (although again, low turnout means that we can't make much of it).

Total municipalities won (not sure how much these labels are worth, but still the best we've got):
- Left and Center-Left: 111 (-42)
- Right and Center-Right: 85 (+40)
- M5S: 1 (-3)
- Independents: 24 (+6)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: TheSaint250 on June 10, 2019, 10:09:24 AM
Any more news about possibly going to early elections?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: SPQR on June 17, 2019, 04:33:46 PM
Center-right wins municipal elections in Cagliari at the first-round by a whole...80 votes, with less than 50.1%.
Center-left is asking for a recount.

Sassari is going to the second-round with center-left vs civic center-right, Lega and co. came in third.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Oryxslayer on July 01, 2019, 02:22:10 PM
So Lega+Fdi+Forza have recently been polling above 50%...which would be a landslide in new electoral system. This isn't the first poll to show this as well. Considering how fractured the opposition appears, Salvini has to be lining up the cards for a snap election...right?



Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 01, 2019, 04:55:14 PM
So Lega+Fdi+Forza have recently been polling above 50%...which would be a landslide in new electoral system. This isn't the first poll to show this as well. Considering how fractured the opposition appears, Salvini has to be lining up the cards for a snap election...right?


Probably. Hopefully he manages to blow it somehow like Theresa May, but Salvini is a lot smarter


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: DavidB. on July 16, 2019, 03:40:13 AM
So what's the thing with the Lega and Russia? Is it actually serious, and when do we know if it's going to have any consequences?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: PSOL on July 16, 2019, 03:59:19 PM
Italian Fascists round armed with Surface Air-to-Air Missiles, other assortments of weaponry (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-neonazi-arms/italy-seizes-air-to-air-missile-guns-in-raids-on-neo-nazis-idUSKCN1UA1T0)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: DavidB. on July 17, 2019, 06:35:12 PM
So what's the thing with the Lega and Russia? Is it actually serious, and when do we know if it's going to have any consequences?
I'd still be interested in an answer to this.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 23, 2019, 04:04:17 PM
So what's the thing with the Lega and Russia? Is it actually serious, and when do we know if it's going to have any consequences?
I'd still be interested in an answer to this.

It's hard to say how serious it is yet. On the surface it seems very similar to the stuff that brought Strache down (promising favorable policy in the energy sector in exchange for campaign funding), but the main difference is that the people implicated on both sides seem to be pretty small fries. The question, as always, is whether Salvini knew and if he himself instigated the whole encounter. There's circumstantial evidence for that but nothing definitive.

In terms of consequences, Lega is still at record highs in the polls, so if this is going to hurt it, it hasn't so far. At this point Lega's rise in the polls feels more like a fundamental law of physics than anything that is in any way meaningfully connected to the fluctuations of Italian politics.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Diouf on August 08, 2019, 08:58:33 AM
Sounds like a quite serious conflict this time

Quote
Premier Giuseppe Conte's government appeared to be moving towards a formal crisis on Thursday when Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini's League party openly talked of the possibility of a snap election.
Conte's League/5-Star Movement (M5S) coalition government is in turmoil after the ruling majority split dramatically on Wednesday in votes in parliament about the controversial TAV Turin-Lyon high-speed rail-link project. The Senate voted against a motion presented by the M5S seeking to stop the TAV with 181 votes against, including those of League lawmakers, and 110 in favour. Several motions in favour of the project presented by opposition parties were approved by similar margins. The TAV is just one of several issues that has caused tension between the M5S and League recently.
"Italy needs certainty and courageous choices," the League said in a statement. It's no good continuing with noes, postponements, blocks and rows every day. Every day that passes is a day that is lost. As far as we are concerned, the only alternative to this government is giving the word back to the Italian people with new elections".
The League seemed to suggest that the coalition was irreparably compromised. "There is awareness and recognition that, after many good things that were done, the League and the 5-Star Movement for too long have had visions that are different on the fundamental issues for the country, such as major public works, infrastructure, economic development, the fiscal shock, the application of regional autonomy, justice reform and relations with Europe," the League said. "Yesterday's vote on the TAV was just the last, clear, irreparable certification of this".

https://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2019/08/08/early-election-only-alternative-league_02cf7866-64ce-4391-af33-00f58b84971a.html


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Diouf on August 08, 2019, 01:55:11 PM
Very serious it seems. Salvini now calls for new elections.

Quote
Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini says Italy’s government no longer has a majority and called for “swift” elections.

The League leader announced his intention to break up the fractious coalition with the Five Star Movement after two days of frenzied talks. Salvini said Parliament should acknowledge that the government headed by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte no longer has enough votes to survive.

“It’s pointless to go ahead with ‘no’s and quarrels like in the past few weeks, Italians need certainties and a government capable of acting,” Salvini said in a statement on Thursday night. “We don’t want more cabinet seats or ministries, we don’t a reshuffle or a technocratic government.”

For Salvini, the end of the majority was laid bare when the coalition couldn’t agree this week on a vote on a high-speed rail link to France and by the “continued insults against me and the League from our ‘allies’.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-08/salvini-says-italian-government-lacks-majority-election-needed


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Senator Incitatus on August 08, 2019, 02:05:32 PM
...And away we go.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 08, 2019, 02:12:56 PM
Right now, Legga is polling at about 38%, with their previous allies of Forza and FDI both combining for about 15%. If there is to be a new election, the majority right now will stand at close to 400 seats for the combined right, doubling what would be won by the other parties. I don't this this will stand and Lega&Co will probably drop, but it will be interesting if such a result emerges. Oh, if the 38% stands and nobody else can contest that majority, then Lega may be able to get enough seats on its own...

Salvini truly has inherited the Burlusconi machine. 


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 08, 2019, 02:27:54 PM
Well, we are officially f**ked.


Salvini truly has inherited the Burlusconi machine. 

It's actually an interesting question whether the Lega's winning coalition will look similar to Forza Italia's in its heydays. It's definitely possible (we already know that a key pillar of Berlusconism, Northern small businessmen, have fully converted to Salvinism), but I suspect that other pieces of the Lega vote come from different traditions (a lot, depressingly, from the "red regions" that Berlusconi never managed to crack, and a lot also probably from the old AN vote).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: mileslunn on August 08, 2019, 09:25:21 PM
As an outsider, why is Salvini so wildly popular, he seems like the type who where I live in Canada would be loathed.  I realize Italy is a lot different than Canada, but still seems more like the type who might sell in some Eastern European countries, but would only appeal to your typical hard right crowd west of the former iron curtain, i.e. in the teens or 20s, not high 30s.  Likewise on policies, is his flat tax popular as won't that primarily benefit the rich and I know at least in English speaking world income inequality is a major issue?  Likewise he wants to loosen gun laws and I would think with all the mass shootings that would be a tough sell?  I can see his tough line on immigration being popular, but I would assume all major parties would to varying degrees take this.  Any insights here?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Diouf on August 09, 2019, 04:20:44 AM
Does anybody know whether Rosatellum has been tried at the Constitutional Court? I know M5S wanted it to go there when they voted against it, but I can't find any information about whether it has actually been tried at court. Hopefully, it could be struck down and Italy can get the open-list proportional system a great country like it deserves. The open-list part and the proportionality part is what the Constitutional Court focused on in striking down the other electoral laws, but unfortunately the replacements parliament agree on rarely seem to fulfill these criteria.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Famous Mortimer on August 09, 2019, 04:40:25 AM
As an outsider, why is Salvini so wildly popular, he seems like the type who where I live in Canada would be loathed.  I realize Italy is a lot different than Canada, but still seems more like the type who might sell in some Eastern European countries, but would only appeal to your typical hard right crowd west of the former iron curtain, i.e. in the teens or 20s, not high 30s.  Likewise on policies, is his flat tax popular as won't that primarily benefit the rich and I know at least in English speaking world income inequality is a major issue?  Likewise he wants to loosen gun laws and I would think with all the mass shootings that would be a tough sell?  I can see his tough line on immigration being popular, but I would assume all major parties would to varying degrees take this.  Any insights here?

Political parties taking a hard line on immigration is pretty common. Before the year 2000, basically every party in Europe except for a few Greens and hard leftists took a line that would today be called fascist.

Almost none of them stayed true to that line in office.

The League and Fidesz are basically the only parties in post war history who have kept their promise on immigration.

That goes a lot further than the Democratic Party or 5 Star or whoever going "immigration is unquestionable good but there's some problems and we need to address them in non specific ways".


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: PetrSokol on August 09, 2019, 04:46:25 AM
Is there now any possibility of the M5S-PD government?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 09, 2019, 04:49:44 AM
Lega introduces no-confidence motion against Conte. It should be debated and voted on next week.


Before the year 2000, basically every party in Europe except for a few Greens and hard leftists took a line that would today be called fascist.

You haven't the faintest clue what you're talking about and if you have the slightest shed of self-awareness you really ought to shut up now.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 09, 2019, 05:13:11 AM
As an outsider, why is Salvini so wildly popular, he seems like the type who where I live in Canada would be loathed. 

The present Premier of Ontario is Doug Ford.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 09, 2019, 05:16:17 AM
As for the immigration issue: well, its actually quite unique toxicity in Italy can be put down to the fact that Italy for a very long time was a country in which emigration was a social phenomenon, but immigration basically wasn't.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Skye on August 09, 2019, 05:19:46 AM
Salvni looks unstoppable for now. I wonder if Lega's leads will continue to hold until the election.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Famous Mortimer on August 09, 2019, 09:47:42 AM
Lega introduces no-confidence motion against Conte. It should be debated and voted on next week.


Before the year 2000, basically every party in Europe except for a few Greens and hard leftists took a line that would today be called fascist.

You haven't the faintest clue what you're talking about and if you have the slightest shed of self-awareness you really ought to shut up now.

no u


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Former President tack50 on August 09, 2019, 11:14:36 AM
As for the immigration issue: well, its actually quite unique toxicity in Italy can be put down to the fact that Italy for a very long time was a country in which emigration was a social phenomenon, but immigration basically wasn't.

I mean, that also applies here (immigration was barely a thing until like 1995 or so) and the reaction to immigration is radically different than Italy's


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 09, 2019, 11:21:28 AM
Is there a possibility that M5S could just form a new Government with PD to avoid Snap elections and punish Salvini?

Theoretically? Yes. Realistically, Renzi still holds a ton of sway over the party and the "Never team up will M5S" is still very prevalent, especially when you are the weaker partner. Zingaretti would likely not even back a technocratic government considering how toxic such a temporary thing would be. Oh, and there's the desire to punish M5S and get better numbers for PD on the left, a very powerful motive in the personality driven politics of Italy.

I think every non-M5S has a reason to support a new election now. PD+the minors can be seen above, Lega for the obvious reasons, FdI to enter government, and Forza to get the election ASAP, because the longer the legislature gets dragged out, the more Forza is going to keep sliding in the polls as their partisans move to Lega.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: mileslunn on August 09, 2019, 12:30:45 PM
As an outsider, why is Salvini so wildly popular, he seems like the type who where I live in Canada would be loathed. 

The present Premier of Ontario is Doug Ford.

Ford is pretty loathed today and won more due to Liberals being in power too long.  By contrast Salvini has almost doubled his support in a year and he is pretty far right for a Western European leader.  In Eastern Europe different story, but in Western Europe, while many like him, they usually have a tough time cracking the 30% mark.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: mileslunn on August 09, 2019, 12:37:51 PM
So in essence it is immigration why Salvini is so popular and other issues like flat tax and looser gun laws are side issues that people care less about?  I do know Italy doesn't have the same history with immigration as many other Western European countries do who have had large immigrant populations in their major cities for decades, its more a recent phenemenon unlike say UK, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, and France.

That being said is their any chance he would take Italy out of the Euro or call a referendum to leave the EU.  I would think after how poorly Brexit is going and with Italy even being more integrated (part of Scheghen and Euro unlike UK), leaving the EU would not have majority support.  Another side issue while largely symbolism, I noticed last time I visited Italy, almost every government building would fly the Italian and EU flags so being a strong nationalist does he still have EU flag in background when speaking like Macron and Merkel do, or like Orban does he only have national flag in background considering his general disdain of the EU.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 09, 2019, 12:52:53 PM
So in essence it is immigration why Salvini is so popular and other issues like flat tax and looser gun laws are side issues that people care less about?  I do know Italy doesn't have the same history with immigration as many other Western European countries do who have had large immigrant populations in their major cities for decades, its more a recent phenemenon unlike say UK, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, and France.

That being said is their any chance he would take Italy out of the Euro or call a referendum to leave the EU.  I would think after how poorly Brexit is going and with Italy even being more integrated (part of Scheghen and Euro unlike UK), leaving the EU would not have majority support.  Another side issue while largely symbolism, I noticed last time I visited Italy, almost every government building would fly the Italian and EU flags so being a strong nationalist does he still have EU flag in background when speaking like Macron and Merkel do, or like Orban does he only have national flag in background considering his general disdain of the EU.

Most anti-EU skeptics have retreated from outright leave philosophies to erstwhile loathing and skepticism - in part because Brexit is showing just how damaging that philosophy is, in part because the EU is now increasingly popular and Salvini wouldn't dare die on that hill - why today a poll showed 75-25 support Italian EU membership. There is also of course the faction within the EU led by Le Pen and co. who want to reform the EU to suit their needs, rather then that of the "liberal elite."

But migration isn't Salvini's only issue, even though it is the big one. The north/south divide, while less prominent now in Lega still influences its goals. The coalition after all broke apart over northern infrastructure investment supported by Lega and the right who rule the north in contrast to M5S's south. There's the anti-government, anti-corruption angle, which seems awkward after the Russian collusion thing. However, almost every Italian government since the 90s has came to power promising to do away with the insider corruption of the last one, its part of Belusconi's brand. With M5S failing on most of their key proposals, Lega can run on throwing the ineffective wing of the government. There's the youth unemployment and debt issues, which birthed M5S and now have been swiped by Lega into the Anti-Migrant umbrella. There's the aging problem and how Italy has one of the lowest Birth rates in the world, which natural breeds aging, healthcare, and other types of issues that are 'constantly in need of reform' or at least funding. Like any party, it can't be blamed on one media headline, as dominant as that headline is.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on August 09, 2019, 03:16:20 PM
As a (very much conditional) apologist in long standing for Southern Italy's economic interests and culture, the prospect of Po Valley anti-"terrone" racists holding undiluted sway over Italy's political and state institutions is almost as terrifying to me as the prospect of an overtly migrant-bashing alt-Catholic Prime Minister of a founding EU state.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Senator Incitatus on August 09, 2019, 03:33:32 PM
As a (very much conditional) apologist in long standing for Southern Italy's economic interests and culture, the prospect of Po Valley anti-"terrone" racists holding undiluted sway over Italy's political and state institutions is almost as terrifying to me as the prospect of an overtly migrant-bashing alt-Catholic Prime Minister of a founding EU state.

I've openly asked this before: how powerful would Salvini be if he (or Lega) could create any appeal in the South? His numbers remain depressed because of the regional issue.

But yes, even I have such strong distaste for their record that it prevents me from actively rooting for them, and I sense from conversations with native Sicilians that this is the common sentiment on the island.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 09, 2019, 05:51:30 PM
As a (very much conditional) apologist in long standing for Southern Italy's economic interests and culture, the prospect of Po Valley anti-"terrone" racists holding undiluted sway over Italy's political and state institutions is almost as terrifying to me as the prospect of an overtly migrant-bashing alt-Catholic Prime Minister of a founding EU state.

I've openly asked this before: how powerful would Salvini be if he (or Lega) could create any appeal in the South? His numbers remain depressed because of the regional issue.

But yes, even I have such strong distaste for their record that it prevents me from actively rooting for them, and I sense from conversations with native Sicilians that this is the common sentiment on the island.

Theres certainly going to be some of a regional divide, almost certainly in policy, but I'm not sure how bad it will be vote wise. Local elections have shown Lega picking up steam in the south, Salvini is campaigning in the south, and I have a sneaking suspicion that Lega was able to rise so fast and pull so many voters from M5S because they were finally able to expand beyond the north.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: DavidB. on August 09, 2019, 08:47:51 PM
I doubt whether this is a smart move in the long run (M5S may be needed in the future), but for now I will be eager to see Lega and FdI win a majority. Hopefully they can lead the way and inspire a similar movement throughout all of the continent.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: jaichind on August 09, 2019, 08:53:16 PM
As the party that pushes the country into a mid-term election I suspect Lega will under-perform polls.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 09, 2019, 09:14:58 PM
Some scenario polling for the right wing list potentials. The top one is what has been currently run locally, the second Lega on its own, and the third being Lega and their buddys in the FdI. I shudder to think what might happen if Lega gets a majority on its own.

()


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: TheSaint250 on August 09, 2019, 09:16:47 PM
Could someone with a pretty good handle on the situation describe the factions within Five Star Movement in regards to certain political stances, the voter base and politician groupings, etc.?  The idea of a split in the Five Star Movement has been a topic of wonderment to me, and in such a hypothetical scenario, I doubt all members of the party would unify in joining or identifying with another party or alliance.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Walmart_shopper on August 10, 2019, 02:54:31 AM
I doubt whether this is a smart move in the long run (M5S may be needed in the future), but for now I will be eager to see Lega and FdI win a majority. Hopefully they can lead the way and inspire a similar movement throughout all of the continent.

More likely they will sufficiently toxify racist politics in Europe to an extent that no other country will want to touch the far right. In that way Italy, after being saved by Europe over and over again, will become Europe's sacrificial lamb. It would be poetic and beautiful if not so awful.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Walmart_shopper on August 10, 2019, 02:59:31 AM
Could someone with a pretty good handle on the situation describe the factions within Five Star Movement in regards to certain political stances, the voter base and politician groupings, etc.?  The idea of a split in the Five Star Movement has been a topic of wonderment to me, and in such a hypothetical scenario, I doubt all members of the party would unify in joining or identifying with another party or alliance.

This is a good question. As Five Star voters have fled their party, both PD and Lega have fairly equally benefited. Whether Lega gets a majority or not probably depends on how successfully they focus the campaign on immigration and general populism, which attracts Five Star voters. If PD can reorient the narrative around economic issues that will attract those same voters to PD.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Famous Mortimer on August 10, 2019, 03:50:52 AM
I doubt whether this is a smart move in the long run (M5S may be needed in the future), but for now I will be eager to see Lega and FdI win a majority. Hopefully they can lead the way and inspire a similar movement throughout all of the continent.

More likely they will sufficiently toxify racist politics in Europe to an extent that no other country will want to touch the far right. In that way Italy, after being saved by Europe over and over again, will become Europe's sacrificial lamb. It would be poetic and beautiful if not so awful.

What exactly do you imagine a Lega-FI government would do that would make the far-right particularly unpopular? Far-right parties are already disliked by the establishment, I don't think forming a government all their own in Italy will particularly help their image, but I don't think it would really make it any worse either.

You can see what happens when far-right parties rule by themselves in Hungary. Liberal newspaper editors and NGOs talk badly about them, but Hungary has not collapsed, living standards have not declined, the government is popular. If Fidesz has done fine in government, why do you imagine Lega would be so much worse?

Do you think Italy's economy will crumble without constant injection of new African economic migrants? Putting aside the question of whether such migrants are good for the economy or not (they aren't), as people have already pointed out multiple times, they are a recent development, Italy did just fine without them for decades.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 10, 2019, 08:23:22 AM
Could someone with a pretty good handle on the situation describe the factions within Five Star Movement in regards to certain political stances, the voter base and politician groupings, etc.?  The idea of a split in the Five Star Movement has been a topic of wonderment to me, and in such a hypothetical scenario, I doubt all members of the party would unify in joining or identifying with another party or alliance.

This is a good question. As Five Star voters have fled their party, both PD and Lega have fairly equally benefited. Whether Lega gets a majority or not probably depends on how successfully they focus the campaign on immigration and general populism, which attracts Five Star voters. If PD can reorient the narrative around economic issues that will attract those same voters to PD.

Polling back in 2018 found a peculiar thing: M5S was kinda a catch-all party ideologically. When polling voters on where they would place themselves on a spectrum, Lega, Forza and other right -wingers's ideological bell curves were or course right tilts, and PD's was of course left tilted. M5S though was close to flat, with a small hump for the left. What this means is that voters came to M5S from all parts of the spectrum - they were a protest party, not a ideological one.

If the same question were to be asked now, I suspect M5S would bee very left-leaning. Lega's surge pulled from those voters on the right, in part because they now have likely cracked the south which was previously a no-go zone, and PD's partial recovery comes at the expense of thee furthest part of M5S's left wing. Those left remain committed to M5S's welfare legacy, or are unreachable with offers from the others at present.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on August 10, 2019, 10:00:06 AM
I doubt whether this is a smart move in the long run (M5S may be needed in the future), but for now I will be eager to see Lega and FdI win a majority. Hopefully they can lead the way and inspire a similar movement throughout all of the continent.

More likely they will sufficiently toxify racist politics in Europe to an extent that no other country will want to touch the far right. In that way Italy, after being saved by Europe over and over again, will become Europe's sacrificial lamb. It would be poetic and beautiful if not so awful.

What exactly do you imagine a Lega-FI government would do that would make the far-right particularly unpopular? Far-right parties are already disliked by the establishment, I don't think forming a government all their own in Italy will particularly help their image, but I don't think it would really make it any worse either.

You can see what happens when far-right parties rule by themselves in Hungary. Liberal newspaper editors and NGOs talk badly about them, but Hungary has not collapsed, living standards have not declined, the government is popular. If Fidesz has done fine in government, why do you imagine Lega would be so much worse?

Do you think Italy's economy will crumble without constant injection of new African economic migrants? Putting aside the question of whether such migrants are good for the economy or not (they aren't), as people have already pointed out multiple times, they are a recent development, Italy did just fine without them for decades.

I know this is your shtick, but there are actually other issues that affect people's voting habits aside from immigration. The Italian economic situation is quite possibly the least optimistic in the whole of Europe, almost all parties are defined by corruption and many other italian leaders have been felled by the hubris that comes from sky high approvals. In such an environment there is no reason to believe any government can maintain high approval ratings for entire terms (indeed, has any government lasted a full term in the Second Republic?)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Famous Mortimer on August 10, 2019, 11:20:03 AM
I doubt whether this is a smart move in the long run (M5S may be needed in the future), but for now I will be eager to see Lega and FdI win a majority. Hopefully they can lead the way and inspire a similar movement throughout all of the continent.

More likely they will sufficiently toxify racist politics in Europe to an extent that no other country will want to touch the far right. In that way Italy, after being saved by Europe over and over again, will become Europe's sacrificial lamb. It would be poetic and beautiful if not so awful.

What exactly do you imagine a Lega-FI government would do that would make the far-right particularly unpopular? Far-right parties are already disliked by the establishment, I don't think forming a government all their own in Italy will particularly help their image, but I don't think it would really make it any worse either.

You can see what happens when far-right parties rule by themselves in Hungary. Liberal newspaper editors and NGOs talk badly about them, but Hungary has not collapsed, living standards have not declined, the government is popular. If Fidesz has done fine in government, why do you imagine Lega would be so much worse?

Do you think Italy's economy will crumble without constant injection of new African economic migrants? Putting aside the question of whether such migrants are good for the economy or not (they aren't), as people have already pointed out multiple times, they are a recent development, Italy did just fine without them for decades.

I know this is your shtick, but there are actually other issues that affect people's voting habits aside from immigration. The Italian economic situation is quite possibly the least optimistic in the whole of Europe, almost all parties are defined by corruption and many other italian leaders have been felled by the hubris that comes from sky high approvals. In such an environment there is no reason to believe any government can maintain high approval ratings for entire terms (indeed, has any government lasted a full term in the Second Republic?)

Other issues don't matter. The economy goes up and down constantly but if people vote for any party besides Lega, the demographics of their country are changed forever and they can never change them back.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on August 10, 2019, 11:29:03 AM
That is what the cadre of the League etc believe and a substantial portion of the Italian population, but it clearly isn't what the majority of the Italian electorate thinks or else there would literally never be anything aside from League majorities.  You've been blinded by your own myopic obsessions, I'm afraid.

To put it another way, there is a substantial amount of voters in many many northern European countries who are completely inflamed by climate change, think it's by far the most (or only) important issue, but these people are not median voters.



Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Walmart_shopper on August 10, 2019, 11:32:17 AM
I doubt whether this is a smart move in the long run (M5S may be needed in the future), but for now I will be eager to see Lega and FdI win a majority. Hopefully they can lead the way and inspire a similar movement throughout all of the continent.

More likely they will sufficiently toxify racist politics in Europe to an extent that no other country will want to touch the far right. In that way Italy, after being saved by Europe over and over again, will become Europe's sacrificial lamb. It would be poetic and beautiful if not so awful.

What exactly do you imagine a Lega-FI government would do that would make the far-right particularly unpopular? Far-right parties are already disliked by the establishment, I don't think forming a government all their own in Italy will particularly help their image, but I don't think it would really make it any worse either.

You can see what happens when far-right parties rule by themselves in Hungary. Liberal newspaper editors and NGOs talk badly about them, but Hungary has not collapsed, living standards have not declined, the government is popular. If Fidesz has done fine in government, why do you imagine Lega would be so much worse?

Do you think Italy's economy will crumble without constant injection of new African economic migrants? Putting aside the question of whether such migrants are good for the economy or not (they aren't), as people have already pointed out multiple times, they are a recent development, Italy did just fine without them for decades.

I know this is your shtick, but there are actually other issues that affect people's voting habits aside from immigration. The Italian economic situation is quite possibly the least optimistic in the whole of Europe, almost all parties are defined by corruption and many other italian leaders have been felled by the hubris that comes from sky high approvals. In such an environment there is no reason to believe any government can maintain high approval ratings for entire terms (indeed, has any government lasted a full term in the Second Republic?)

Other issues don't matter. The economy goes up and down constantly but if people vote for any party besides Lega, the demographics of their country are changed forever and they can never change them back.

If the Italian economy weren't operating like an arthritic, septic old woman then maybe the demography of Italy would't be so close to the arthritic old woman who needs young immigrants to keep her alive.

In fact, the dysfunction of Italian politics and economics are why immigrants are necessary and also why they are met with such hostility. People view them as a burden, but Italians themselves are a much greater burden and obviously caused this mess in the first place. With a normal economy and politics immigrants would also be necessary, but they would be recognized as an integral piece of a flourishing economy.

If Italians believe that their culture is worth safeguarding, they should actually make sure that their culture is worth preserving. An economy that keeps Mario at home with Mama and the Playstation until he is a. 40 or b. moving to the UK is not the sign of a culture worth preserving. The whole world loves the nostalgia of Nona's Italy, but precisely because of the economy that Italy is dead, and the only migrants contributing to that reality aren't Africans but Italians themselves fleeing their own dumpster fire.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: rob in cal on August 10, 2019, 11:32:39 AM
  It would be intresting to know what would have happened had the Gentiloni government had a longer term in office and more time for Interior minister Minnitti to claim credit for the migration clampdown that he instituted (and that Salvini has praised IIRC).  Then the PD, or at least some elements of it, could have part ownership of the question of better immigration law enforcement.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 10, 2019, 11:42:20 AM
Its kinda a chicken and egg problem that's gotten way out of hand. Italy has a lot of structural problems that can't be solved with one government snapping their fingers, so people leave to the rest of the EU and the Americas in search of prosperity or lack the financial stability to have kids, which leads to more structural problems, which leads to more out-migration and lower births...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Famous Mortimer on August 11, 2019, 04:13:50 AM
I doubt whether this is a smart move in the long run (M5S may be needed in the future), but for now I will be eager to see Lega and FdI win a majority. Hopefully they can lead the way and inspire a similar movement throughout all of the continent.

More likely they will sufficiently toxify racist politics in Europe to an extent that no other country will want to touch the far right. In that way Italy, after being saved by Europe over and over again, will become Europe's sacrificial lamb. It would be poetic and beautiful if not so awful.

What exactly do you imagine a Lega-FI government would do that would make the far-right particularly unpopular? Far-right parties are already disliked by the establishment, I don't think forming a government all their own in Italy will particularly help their image, but I don't think it would really make it any worse either.

You can see what happens when far-right parties rule by themselves in Hungary. Liberal newspaper editors and NGOs talk badly about them, but Hungary has not collapsed, living standards have not declined, the government is popular. If Fidesz has done fine in government, why do you imagine Lega would be so much worse?

Do you think Italy's economy will crumble without constant injection of new African economic migrants? Putting aside the question of whether such migrants are good for the economy or not (they aren't), as people have already pointed out multiple times, they are a recent development, Italy did just fine without them for decades.

I know this is your shtick, but there are actually other issues that affect people's voting habits aside from immigration. The Italian economic situation is quite possibly the least optimistic in the whole of Europe, almost all parties are defined by corruption and many other italian leaders have been felled by the hubris that comes from sky high approvals. In such an environment there is no reason to believe any government can maintain high approval ratings for entire terms (indeed, has any government lasted a full term in the Second Republic?)

Other issues don't matter. The economy goes up and down constantly but if people vote for any party besides Lega, the demographics of their country are changed forever and they can never change them back.

If the Italian economy weren't operating like an arthritic, septic old woman then maybe the demography of Italy would't be so close to the arthritic old woman who needs young immigrants to keep her alive.

In fact, the dysfunction of Italian politics and economics are why immigrants are necessary and also why they are met with such hostility. People view them as a burden, but Italians themselves are a much greater burden and obviously caused this mess in the first place. With a normal economy and politics immigrants would also be necessary, but they would be recognized as an integral piece of a flourishing economy.

If Italians believe that their culture is worth safeguarding, they should actually make sure that their culture is worth preserving. An economy that keeps Mario at home with Mama and the Playstation until he is a. 40 or b. moving to the UK is not the sign of a culture worth preserving. The whole world loves the nostalgia of Nona's Italy, but precisely because of the economy that Italy is dead, and the only migrants contributing to that reality aren't Africans but Italians themselves fleeing their own dumpster fire.

You say the current population of Italy is burdensome. So you are are admitting that large groups of people can be generally burdensome. If I said this, I would be called a Nazi. Regardless though, you are correct.

If you can acknowledge that the population of Italy is generally burdensome, why do you assume that a population imported from Africa will be automatically productive? It's a very strange assumption given that every African economy is worse than the Italian economy.

If the burdensome stupid lazy white people in Italy need migrants, they need productive migrants who will make their population more productive, they do not need burdensome migrants who will only make their problems worse.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 11, 2019, 04:50:39 AM
Jesus F**king Christ what has this thread become

I'll say it: I wish all American posters could be preemptively banned from this board and only let back in if they have a proven record of not talking out of their asses about countries they know nothing about.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Walmart_shopper on August 11, 2019, 05:50:38 AM
Apparently there are now some talks between M5S and PD to ally and avoid salvini as premier.
https://www.huffingtonpost.it/entry/renzi-di-maio-proposta-indecente_it_5d4dba7be4b0fc06ace782eb

Other than sneering Florentine liberals who cannot fathom joining up with the rabble, who would actually oppose this among PD and Five Star voters? And how does this hurt eitger, politically?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 11, 2019, 06:03:31 AM
Apparently there are now some talks between M5S and PD to ally and avoid salvini as premier.
https://www.huffingtonpost.it/entry/renzi-di-maio-proposta-indecente_it_5d4dba7be4b0fc06ace782eb

Other than sneering Florentine liberals who cannot fathom joining up with the rabble, who would actually oppose this among PD and Five Star voters? And how does this hurt eitger, politically?

Actually, this article is saying that Renzi is the one suggesting a deal. And Zingaretti is publicly opposed to it.

Still, it's just rumors. I won't take any of these ideas seriously until someone brings them up openly.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on August 11, 2019, 12:05:52 PM
My experience of actually talking to Italian people in Italy about their own politics isn't that extensive, but the general impression that I got when I was there last year was that there actually is a "muh economic anxiety" aspect to the Lega phenomenon of the kind that a lot of people like to exaggerate with the Trump phenomenon. I didn't meet one person who was fixated on the flat tax or whatever, or even who seemed all that personally racist. So at least nine or ten months ago it seemed like the immigrant scapegoating actually was scapegoating in Italy's case, rather than tapping into racism-for-the-sake-of-racism.

I have it on good authority that the toxicity of this scapegoating has much more to do with the fact that the migrant wave of three to six years ago was genuinely very socially disruptive in Italy than it does with any inherent economic "burdensomeness" on the part of the migrants. The assumption that the only or main reason an economy like Italy's (or sub-Saharan Africa's!) might be floundering is lack of productivity on the part of labor is a far-right idea if there ever was one, much more so than generic skepticism of immigration is.

The idea that people not being able to move out until they're forty in this economy is a sign that Italian culture qua Italian culture "isn't worth preserving" is pretty awful as well. If that's a mindset that is common or is plausibly thought to be common among PD grandees and ultras then I honestly can't blame the average Italian for seeking answers to Italy's problems elsewhere.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Famous Mortimer on August 11, 2019, 12:24:46 PM
How generous of you (sarcastic) to concede that there are two possible reasons for opposition to immigration: irrational hatred of different skin colors or mistaken belief that more people means more people you are in resource competition with.

Why it can't be an ACCURATE belief that more people means more people you're in resource competition with, I will never know. It seems to me that that is the reason.

Additionally, the idea that economies are the result of the people who take part in them is not a far right idea, it is just obviously true.

It is nice of you though (not being sarcastic) to pretend that that isn't true for both whites and non-whites, unlike most other leftists who pretend it's true for economically struggling whites but not for anyone else.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 11, 2019, 12:28:57 PM
Can we maybe try to avoid turning every thread on this board into the same thread? It is getting a little bit tedious.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Famous Mortimer on August 11, 2019, 12:36:00 PM
This thread is primarily about MATTEO SALVINI. Immigration gonna come up. If you don't discuss immigration, the thread will literally make no sense. It will be a bunch of people going "why is this guy so popular?" "I got no idea dur dur" "there might be reasons he is popular but no one is allowed to say" "there is no reason he's popular, it's just random! lol"


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Walmart_shopper on August 11, 2019, 12:42:19 PM
Can we maybe try to avoid turning every thread on this board into the same thread? It is getting a little bit tedious.

It isn't a matter of coincidence that the same debates are regurgitated from country to country. The major divide in Western politics is a nationalist-populist right, on the one hand, and a globalist-liberal center-left tenuously allied with a more populist left. Look at your own country (or mine) for evidence of that. Actually, look at pretty much any country for evidence of that. It's clearly why you see the same narratives being replicated from thread to thread. I actually think it's an interesting discussion.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 11, 2019, 12:49:24 PM
To try to bring a little light back into the thread, the maps from last time around:

()

Unless the polls change quite drastically we can presumably expect the Right landslide in the North and Centre to be repeated and for it to extend deep into the South.

()

God knows what this will look like this time. But take a look at this map: you will never see, in an advanced Western nation in the 21st century, a clearer example of an incoherent howl of pain and protest take electoral form.

()

A fiasco of a map, disastrous results everywhere outside the inner cities (which in Italy are rather rich; the social geography of urban Italy is very different to the Western European norm) and absolutely catastrophic - electoral asteroid impact territory, frankly - results in the South. The PD should see at the least a limited rebound and the patterns will be interesting.

()

The green will deepen and spread and spread and spread. And this map is already a radical departure from what had been the norm.

()

Replace 'green' with 'blue' and 'spread' with 'shrink'.

()

Current polling shows these absolute charmers often doubling their support from last year. But the general pattern will remain, I suspect, that of Lazio supporters and other fascists with expense accounts.

()

Probably this will look much the same.

()

Now RIP but their votes have to go somewhere. Some to the new list with the remains of the increasingly hilariously named Communist Refoundation Party, but will others head back to the PD? We shall see...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on August 11, 2019, 01:05:13 PM
Why it can't be an ACCURATE belief that more people means more people you're in resource competition with, I will never know. It seems to me that that is the reason.

Okay, yes. There are countries and economic systems in which immigration has this effect, and while I really don't think it's the main thing that's currently going on in Italy, I wouldn't be completely shocked if I were proven wrong on that. I've conceded as much in the past, just not in conversation with you, since I try to avoid talking to you.

I stand by the other observation that you remark on, especially (but not only) since you're reducing to the absurd in responding to it.

Anyway, I'm not going to pursue this conversation further because I have better things to be doing with my time and other posters have better things to be doing with this thread.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on August 11, 2019, 01:54:52 PM
So what's the deal with the fascists in Lazio and those Roman suburbs? I know rge reputation of the football clubs ultras,, but still.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on August 11, 2019, 02:01:23 PM
So what's the deal with the fascists in Lazio and those Roman suburbs? I know rge reputation of the football clubs ultras,, but still.

I can’t speak for the Roman suburbs, but southern Lazio has a lot of descendants of fascist true believers from Friuli and Veneto who moved there to settle a planned city (today’s Latina) that Mussolini built in the early 30s.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 11, 2019, 02:49:58 PM
But take a look at this map: you will never see, in an advanced Western nation in the 21st century, a clearer example of an incoherent howl of pain and protest take electoral form.

That's a chillingly excellent description.


Quote
(which in Italy are rather rich; the social geography of urban Italy is very different to the Western European norm)

Is it, though? I thought that it was more the US and UK that differed from the Continental European norm in concentrating the poor in their urban centers. French urban centers are almost always well-off with the working-class (whether immigrant or native) concentrated in the suburbs (usually the Eastern ones, with the Western also being mostly bourgeois). And I think urban centers are also largely well-off in places like Spain, Germany and the Scandinavians, but I might be wrong.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 11, 2019, 03:16:31 PM
So what's the deal with the fascists in Lazio and those Roman suburbs? I know rge reputation of the football clubs ultras,, but still.

The Roman middle classes did bloody well out of Fascism even if no one else did and this turned over time, as things do, into a political heritage and tradition.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 11, 2019, 03:18:57 PM
So what's the deal with the fascists in Lazio and those Roman suburbs? I know rge reputation of the football clubs ultras,, but still.

I can’t speak for the Roman suburbs, but southern Lazio has a lot of descendants of fascist true believers from Friuli and Veneto who moved there to settle a planned city (today’s Latina) that Mussolini built in the early 30s.

This is correct. Something similar explains the tradition of fascist support in Bolzano, which in 2018 was expressed through a rather... erm... more hardcore vehicle than FdI...

()


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 11, 2019, 03:39:41 PM
Is it, though? I thought that it was more the US and UK that differed from the Continental European norm in concentrating the poor in their urban centers. French urban centers are almost always well-off with the working-class (whether immigrant or native) concentrated in the suburbs (usually the Eastern ones, with the Western also being pretty bourgeois. And I think urban centers are also largely well-off in places like Spain, Germany and the Scandinavians, but I might be wrong.

German and Scandinavian cities are like British ones but better planned. National stereotypes all round there, I know, I know, but it is true.

Anyway I wasn't thinking so much of patterns of poverty so much as patterns of money, and this is what is unusual about Italian urban life. Consider Paris. The west end of the city proper is extremely rich and most of the rest of the city proper has been thoroughly gentrified since the middle twentieth century, but these areas are far from being the only places where money lives: you have the villa developments at Neuilly and so on, and then further out the various thoroughly suburban (but still flat out rich) municipalities as one keeps out wandering westwards. In most Italian cities, though, money lives in the centre and the geography often looks as if there's a gravitational pull at work - with a few little quirks here and there. Italy hardly lacks for middle class suburbs, of course, but they tend to have a firmly lower middle class quality, even if prosperous - which explains a great deal about political developments in the country in recent decades.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 11, 2019, 03:46:49 PM
Compare and contrast:

()

()


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 11, 2019, 03:49:20 PM
So who are these people who voted Lega for the first time in 2018? Well...

()

(also relevant for the discussion of rump fascist party electoral geography)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 11, 2019, 04:04:48 PM
Is it, though? I thought that it was more the US and UK that differed from the Continental European norm in concentrating the poor in their urban centers. French urban centers are almost always well-off with the working-class (whether immigrant or native) concentrated in the suburbs (usually the Eastern ones, with the Western also being pretty bourgeois. And I think urban centers are also largely well-off in places like Spain, Germany and the Scandinavians, but I might be wrong.

German and Scandinavian cities are like British ones but better planned. National stereotypes all round there, I know, I know, but it is true.

Anyway I wasn't thinking so much of patterns of poverty so much as patterns of money, and this is what is unusual about Italian urban life. Consider Paris. The west end of the city proper is extremely rich and most of the rest of the city proper has been thoroughly gentrified since the middle twentieth century, but these areas are far from being the only places where money lives: you have the villa developments at Neuilly and so on, and then further out the various thoroughly suburban (but still flat out rich) municipalities as one keeps out wandering westwards. In most Italian cities, though, money lives in the centre and the geography often looks as if there's a gravitational pull at work - with a few little quirks here and there. Italy hardly lacks for middle class suburbs, of course, but they tend to have a firmly lower middle class quality, even if prosperous - which explains a great deal about political developments in the country in recent decades.

That's an interesting point, and actually something I myself didn't know was unique about Italian cities. And, well, I completely missed the mark on German and Scandinavian ones. My bad. :P

Just to quibble over details, I wouldn't characterize most of Paris as just "gentrifying" - the pockets of wealth are not just confined to the far-West of the city but also extend considerably into the center of the city (the "true", historical centre, ie the first 10 arrondissements), and have done so for a long time. The Center- and South-Eastern neighborhood are gentrifying, while the last (shrinking) working-class enclaves are in the Northeast. Here's a cool map I found:

()

Also, the suburbs that extend West into the Yvelines are not uniformly super-wealthy either. Vélizy, the city I used to live in, is firmly middle-class overall (our family is definitely wealthier than the median, and we're not exactly 1%ers; also, there's significant social housing). Further West, there is Trappes, which has a heavy immigrant and second-/third-generation presence and is frequently one of the kind of places lambasted by the xenophobic right as proof of everything that's wrong with Those People (it's also, incidentally, Benoît Hamon's political base, which believe it or not is still pretty supportive of him even now).

All minor quibbles, I'll concede, but I don't think "mixed but gentrifying Paris vs hyper-wealthy Western suburbs" is the appropriate characterization of the situation. Overall, if you're really hyper-wealthy, you're just as likely to live inside the city limits as West of them.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: mileslunn on August 11, 2019, 06:38:45 PM
Why it can't be an ACCURATE belief that more people means more people you're in resource competition with, I will never know. It seems to me that that is the reason.

Okay, yes. There are countries and economic systems in which immigration has this effect, and while I really don't think it's the main thing that's currently going on in Italy, I wouldn't be completely shocked if I were proven wrong on that. I've conceded as much in the past, just not in conversation with you, since I try to avoid talking to you.

I stand by the other observation that you remark on, especially (but not only) since you're reducing to the absurd in responding to it.

Anyway, I'm not going to pursue this conversation further because I have better things to be doing with my time and other posters have better things to be doing with this thread.

I saw a survey on attitudes towards immigration in Europe and it generally showed countries either with few immigrants (much of Eastern Europe) or only very recently (Greece and Italy) most negative, while countries that have had immigration for years like Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium, France, and UK much less so.  When Enoch Powell made his River of Blood speech in the late 60s, over 70% of Brits agreed with it, whereas today a speech like that would only have minority support so in a lot of ways Italy with respect to immigration is in a similar boat to what UK was in 60s and 70s.  You had some pretty bad race riots then too.  Generally speaking in most countries, new waves of those who look different tend to be negatively received unfortunately, but as time passes and they become part of the community attitudes shift.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Famous Mortimer on August 12, 2019, 05:18:36 AM
Why it can't be an ACCURATE belief that more people means more people you're in resource competition with, I will never know. It seems to me that that is the reason.

Okay, yes. There are countries and economic systems in which immigration has this effect, and while I really don't think it's the main thing that's currently going on in Italy, I wouldn't be completely shocked if I were proven wrong on that. I've conceded as much in the past, just not in conversation with you, since I try to avoid talking to you.

I stand by the other observation that you remark on, especially (but not only) since you're reducing to the absurd in responding to it.

Anyway, I'm not going to pursue this conversation further because I have better things to be doing with my time and other posters have better things to be doing with this thread.

I saw a survey on attitudes towards immigration in Europe and it generally showed countries either with few immigrants (much of Eastern Europe) or only very recently (Greece and Italy) most negative, while countries that have had immigration for years like Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium, France, and UK much less so.  When Enoch Powell made his River of Blood speech in the late 60s, over 70% of Brits agreed with it, whereas today a speech like that would only have minority support so in a lot of ways Italy with respect to immigration is in a similar boat to what UK was in 60s and 70s.  You had some pretty bad race riots then too.  Generally speaking in most countries, new waves of those who look different tend to be negatively received unfortunately, but as time passes and they become part of the community attitudes shift.

Alternative explanation: you can be honest about the problems of immigration when there's only a few of them in your country and it's possible to deport them.

When there's millions of them and they make up a large chunk of the population in all of your major cities AND have shown a propensity to react violently to perceived slights, you lose the ability to be honest.

"I didn't want the man with the gun to come into my house but now that he's sitting on my couch pointing it at me, I love him! (Also, he gets a vote so gun man's approval could never dip below 50% regardless!)"


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on August 12, 2019, 12:36:42 PM
Those of us who are axiomatically incapable of conceding that it's possible for Mussulman and Hindoo immigrants ever to integrate in European countries aside, does anyone know how Italian citizens of African or Asian origin do vote? (I almost said "non-white Italian citizens" but Italian racial politics regarding North and South is...more complicated than that.) I assume mostly center-left these days, but did Berlusconi have any appeal to them back when LN and AN were mostly subordinate to liberal conservatism with Italian characteristics?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Former President tack50 on August 12, 2019, 12:52:48 PM
Agreed. PD should not prop up the government. Go to elections, crush M5S and lead a hard opposition for 4 years (or less, it's Italy after all). After that hopefully Salvini loses.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 12, 2019, 01:00:23 PM
One theoretical option for PD is add the dying M5S to their broad Left-wing tent once new elections happen, because the parties voters are certainly left-wing after the right bolted for Salvini. Tossing it onto a broad left list would further the decline in favor of PD as voters migrate naturally to the head of the coalition. Downside of course is that this left wing ticket picks up all of M5S's demons, as well as its voters, and even right now wouldn't beat the combined Right's total votes. This might be what Renzi is trying now that M5S would be in a junior position.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Walmart_shopper on August 12, 2019, 01:45:32 PM
Agreed. PD should not prop up the government. Go to elections, crush M5S and lead a hard opposition for 4 years (or less, it's Italy after all). After that hopefully Salvini loses.

It is hardly "propping up" the government if they are the government, in coalition with M5S. And the trajectory of Italian politics and Western European politics generally is such that a newer, lefter party could eclipse PD within four years anyway. Center left parties are too existentially threatened to play the long game. In any case, the institution-smashing and scapegoating tendency of the far right makes an ordinary democratic route back to power a lot harder. Give Salvini four years and you may be giving him the future.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: jaichind on August 12, 2019, 07:54:45 PM
Wait.  Now Renzi is for working with M5S.  Was he not totally against working with M5S last year?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 13, 2019, 02:11:45 PM
First concrete signs of a PD-M5S rapprochement materialized today, as the two parties joined forces in parliament to impose a slower pace to the agenda of the no-confidence vote. Lega wanted the vote as early as tomorrow, but the makeshift yellow-red majority decided it will be next week (August 20). In the meantime, Zingaretti is already moving away from his hard-no stance on an alliance with M5S, and voices are actually emerging in favor of a government to last the whole parliamentary term. I still have trouble seeing it, tbh, but the next week or so will be fascinating.


Those of us who are axiomatically incapable of conceding that it's possible for Mussulman and Hindoo immigrants ever to integrate in European countries aside, does anyone know how Italian citizens of African or Asian origin do vote? (I almost said "non-white Italian citizens" but Italian racial politics regarding North and South is...more complicated than that.) I assume mostly center-left these days, but did Berlusconi have any appeal to them back when LN and AN were mostly subordinate to liberal conservatism with Italian characteristics?

I'll admit I have no idea. I haven't seen any polling or survey data on the matter (and I have seen a LOT of strange crosstabs in Italian polls in my days). My guess is that the subsample of non-White voters in Italian politics is simply too small, owing to the compounding effect of, 1. them still being a small percentage of the population, 2. many of them not being citizens, especially given Italy's restrictive citizenship laws, 3. even those who are citizens having subpar turnout. If I did have to hazard a guess, though, yeah, I'd say the vast majority of them vote to the center-left. A few might possibly vote M5S too.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Walmart_shopper on August 14, 2019, 08:27:44 AM
Is it possible for M5S and PD to make a joint run in a new election? They would likely garner a majority together and given how many ancestral PD voters are now M5S voters, such a merger doesn't seem nearly as problematic as a fascist majority. Push immigration issues to the margins, emphasize economic populism, and anathemize Lega on the places they are weakest politically (their social conservatism, for example).  Why wouldn't that work?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 14, 2019, 08:41:08 AM
Is it possible for M5S and PD to make a joint run in a new election? They would likely garner a majority together and given how many ancestral PD voters are now M5S voters, such a merger doesn't seem nearly as problematic as a fascist majority. Push immigration issues to the margins, emphasize economic populism, and anathemize Lega on the places they are weakest politically (their social conservatism, for example).  Why wouldn't that work?

I mentioned above that this is probably Renzi's end goal and why he suddenly changed his tune. PD would be happier with M5S as a junior partner in their left wing tent, rather than the major governing party with PD acting as its junior partner. Two downsides to this approach though: it still wouldn't beat the joint right wing ticket without a little bit of work, and PD would be taking on all the demons and failures of M5S's time in government, a turnoff to tons of voters that are behind the PD recovery. That's not not even considering M5S's position and how them accepting this deal would more or less be the death knell for their party at some point in the future.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 20, 2019, 09:15:57 AM
Conte resigns. (https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/20/europe/italy-prime-minister-giuseppe-conte-intl/index.html)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Skye on August 20, 2019, 03:45:50 PM
Jesus, so what's next, new elections?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Walmart_shopper on August 21, 2019, 03:53:41 AM
Jesus, so what's next, new elections?

Whiplash from the PD-M5S government in the works.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Velasco on August 21, 2019, 04:40:27 AM
Jesus, so what's next, new elections?

Whiplash from the PD-M5S government in the works.

The decision is in Mattarella's hands

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/20/italy-and-matteo-salvini-face-uncertainty-after-pms-resignation

Quote
Mattarella has three options: immediately dissolve parliament and call a snap election; begin consultations with parties to see if a new parliamentary majority can be formed; or install a caretaker government to at least pass Italy’s budget for 2020.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 21, 2019, 05:23:46 AM
Nicola Zingaretti has just spoken, after a meeting of the PD leadership. PD declares itself available to a long-haul government alliance with M5S, but intends to "verify if the conditions for it are present" and is ready to go to new elections if they aren't.

So they're interested in talking with M5S, but want to sell themselves at a high price. Earlier, PD people were saying that they would require a reversal of several policies enacted by the previous government (especially in areas such as security where Salvini has been in the driver's seat for the past year). So the M5S will have to make a bit of a U-turn if they want to avoid elections.

...and just as I was typing, M5S responded with a note that "reminds everyone" that they are the largest party in parliament, implying that they're not going to grovel and sell out on everything. That seems like a standard bargaining strategy.

Next big moment will be tomorrow afternoon, when Mattarella will speak to the delegates from PD, Lega and M5S. Afterwards, he will have to decide if he give someone a mandate to form a new government, calls in more consultations, or dissolves parliament.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Walmart_shopper on August 21, 2019, 06:32:46 AM
What are the policy proposals that a PD-M5S coalition could enact that would be popular, politically powerful, and which both sides would agree on? Obviously immigration policy would be swept aside. Could Zingaretti push the Renzi-ite majority in his party for M5S-friendly anti-austerity economic populism in return for a coalition he doesn't much want? Salvini is running a massively religious campaign, which is so odd in a relatively secular and rapidly secularizing country, which Italy is. Could the coalition take him on by enacting popular gay marriage and other socially liberal laws?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: mileslunn on August 21, 2019, 01:00:06 PM
What are the policy proposals that a PD-M5S coalition could enact that would be popular, politically powerful, and which both sides would agree on? Obviously immigration policy would be swept aside. Could Zingaretti push the Renzi-ite majority in her party for M5S-friendly anti-austerity economic populism in return for a coalition she doesn't much want? Salvini is running a massively religious campaign, which is so odd in a relatively secular and rapidly secularizing country, which Italy is. Could the coalition take him on by enacting popular gay marriage and other socially liberal laws?

With five star movement strongest in South, perhaps some big infrastructure projects or spending to help economy in South could be one area.  Another interesting one, would be to fund Salvini's flat tax of 15% but raising the top tax rate, so while maybe bad economics, that is sort of a left wing populist one.  Spain recently had a big minimum wage increase so perhaps that is another one.  Likewise M5S favoured a Guaranteed annual income so PD could perhaps agree to go along with that.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: rob in cal on August 22, 2019, 12:00:00 PM
  If I was Salvini I wouldn't have done this breakup, as long as he was still getting 5 stars cooperation on big chunks of his agenda, and as far as I can see it seems that that was the case. I wonder if he is regretting things now.
PD now saying they want 5 star to go along with a repeal of the security decree that was recently passed. Doing so would be a pretty humiliating move on their part, basically showing that they have no deep principals in either direction, voting one month for it, the next month against.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 22, 2019, 02:31:25 PM
OK, so things today didn't go quite as planned.

The PD delegation met with Mattarella in the morning, and expressed their availability to form a government with M5S, but set three non-negotiable conditions: 1. the repeal of the two "security decrees", 2. a pre-government deal about the contours of the future budgetary law, and 3. the (at least temporary) shelving of the currently-debated constitutional reform that was supposed to cut the number of Italian MPs by half. These are harsh conditions, especially the third one which is a huge pill to swallow for a shamelessly #populist <3 movement like M5S, but given the current power dynamic between the two they seemed fairly reasonable.

Di Maio, however, clearly didn't see things that way. M5S was invited to Mattarella last (as is protocol for presidential consultations, you go from the smallest parties to the biggest) and most people were expecting them to make the same kind of overtures to the PD. Instead, Di Maio made a surreal speech where he presented a lengthy government program and basically demanded that whoever wants to govern agree to it. He didn't even mention PD. Later rumors started propping up that M5S is keeping talks open with Lega (although nothing concrete has come out in that sense).

Anyway, all this meant was that the consultations ended up in a huge, confusing flop. Mattarella was supposed to speak right after meeting the M5S delegation, but instead he took two additional hours to himself, and eventually came out to (very grudgingly) say that he was giving the parties five more days to get their sh*t together. If nothing comes out of the next round of consultations Tuesday, then he'll dissolve parliament.

M5S is playing with fire if they think they can keep sitting on the fence and acting like everything is owed to them. I don't think for a second that Salvini really wants to patch things up with Di Maio, all he's doing is lure him away from the PD to ensure that we end up having new elections. If Di Maio is dumb enough to fall for it, he can kiss his ass goodbye. Anyway, now the M5S groups have formally voted to open up negotiations with PD, but they're doing so from a position of demanding that the constitutional reform be voted as is, which I really don't think is a serious proposal. We'll see if cooler heads will prevail eventually.


Anyway, with this post I've again reached my self-imposed limit, so you won't hear from me for a while. I hope this was helpful to set the stage for whatever comes next though.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Diouf on August 25, 2019, 12:36:43 PM
One should never celebrate early electoral reform rumours out of Italy, but would of course be the best possible scenario if this happened:
"The PD was initially reported to be against cutting the number of MPs but is now said to be coming round to the idea, as part of a wider electoral reform restoring 100% proportional representation."

http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2019/08/23/m5s-pd-govt-talks-get-off-to-constructive-start_8a4f5b40-84f3-4762-b815-b9fed5ed9ef5.html


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Walmart_shopper on August 28, 2019, 10:59:13 AM
It appears that Italy now has a left wing government that M5S says will be "a government of discontinuity." Nice, but I actually wonder how dramatic the whiplash will really be. In any case, I think it's a very smart political move.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: Skye on August 28, 2019, 12:27:29 PM
Looks like a big blow to Salvini's ambitions.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: mileslunn on August 28, 2019, 12:35:44 PM
Looks like Salvini will have a big egg in his face https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49502232 .


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: parochial boy on August 28, 2019, 01:31:03 PM
Schadenfreude, lol


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: FredLindq on August 28, 2019, 02:05:47 PM
Salvini will be the winner in the long run. Going into opposition with approx. 35% support will suit him well.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Salvini Contro Tutti
Post by: DL on August 28, 2019, 02:16:27 PM
It has been said that the worst day being in power is always a far better day than the best day of being in opposition. This PD/M5S govrnment could easily last right to 2023 and by then who knows what the world will look like and if salvini will be old news.

I know there are people who say "sure let Salvini take absolute power after an election, then he can get blamed when the economy crashes"...many Germans said the same when the non-Nazi parties decided to let Hitler have a turn in power in 1933. In fact the Communists took the attitude of "after the nazis it will be our turn" ..how did that turn out 


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 28, 2019, 03:29:32 PM
All the signs now point to a M5S-PD government. Both parties have officially given the green light to a new Conte government, and after meeting them this afternoon, Mattarella announced that he will receive Conte tomorrow at 9:30 am, almost certainly to formally give him the task of forming the government. In one of the most baffling developments of this surreal Italian saga, Conte somehow emerges from this crisis stronger than ever. He started off as Di Maio and Salvini's jointly-owned puppet, and was supposed to be gone after this whole weird experience came crashing down. Instead, he's not only going to stay at his post, but his role in the yellow-red government will probably be far more active than in the yellow-green one. This is partly due to the international stature he's gained over the past year or so (forging his reputation of a serious administrator who guarantees Italy's credibility while carefully treading the line between the established European order and the rising #populist <3 international - that's how you get the endorsement of both Trump and Merkel!). It's also thanks to Grillo's (and, eventually, Zingaretti's) endorsement of his premiership, which is being read implicitly as a rebuke for Di Maio.

Speaking of Di Maio, the final serious hangup to resolve is his role in the upcoming cabinet. Zingaretti is insisting that there should be only one Deputy PM, from the PD, as the PM is now clearly identified with M5S in a way he wasn't last time. This, of course, would mean a major demotion for Di Maio, who is already about to lose his super-ministry that includes labor, industry and a bunch of others. So he's insisting on keeping his post as Deputy PM, while Zingaretti is insisting that he shouldn't. This time, however, there are indications that M5S is not united behind its leader, as several rumors suggest that many are tired of Di Maio's jockeying for a post. This might include Grillo himself, whose dramatic return to the forefront of M5S politics looks a lot like an implicit rebuke of Di Maio's leadership. The provisional solution to the Di Maio question seems to be to punt everything to Conte and Mattarella. It is, after all, formally the role of the President and his proposed candidate to form a government together. Will they snub Di Maio and risk his ire, or will they accommodate him and risk losing PD's support? And will whichever party loses this battle risk bringing down this newborn government? Stay tuned for the next episode!

The top PD figure in the upcoming government probably won't be Zingaretti, who still doesn't want to be that closely associated with the yellow-red experiment (toward which he was always lukewarm, and only okayed it under heavy pressure from Renzi's camp) and who would rather stay on as president of Lazio as long as he can. So, the most talked-about names for that crucial spot are Dario Franceschini (ex-DC, former Renzian who's taken his distances), or Andrea Orlando (Renzi and Gentiloni's Justice minister who has too turned sour on Renzi since 2017). Both are seasoned politicians, making the idea of this as a "new government" a bit hard to sustain. Substantively, the two parties seems to have an agreement in principle on the basics of a common platform, but we've seen very little of it so far. We know that there will have to be some significant reworking of the security decrees, and that the constitutional reform cutting MPs will take place but won't be immediate as M5S wanted (and it might be used as an occasion to impose a more proportional voting system, which would obviously go a long way toward defusing the Salvini menace).

Salvini, of course, is still crying wolf about the absolute horror of not calling elections when he wanted them called. He's found a common front with Meloni, who has supported new elections since March 5, 2018, and who would be a steadfast ally of Salvini's if such elections occurred. On the other hand, Berlusconi has been far less steadfast, and while he still pays lip service to the idea of a great right-wing alliance, he also never wastes an occasion to send signals that he's displeased with Salvini's anti-EU line. Survival instinct might force Forza Italia to terms with Lega if an election were to happen, but if that isn't the case, Berlusconi might have other opportunities to try to erode Salvini's leadership. Salvini has undeniably been weakened by this botched attempt at toppling Conte, and Lega has taken a noticeable hit in the polls (a loss of around 5 points on average). Of course, it remains the largest party in voting intentions, and summed with FdI it still forms an insurmountable electoral juggernaut under the current voting system (a system which might be short-lived, however, see above). So, Salvini is far from KO but there's no doubt that the past few weeks have weakened his hand.

And on that note, I will again check out and let others pick up from here until I have margins for new posts again. I hope this was a helpful summary.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: windjammer on August 28, 2019, 03:47:00 PM
Salvini really screwed up himself. Before his gamble, he was the main player of italian politics and was going to win the next elections easily with a potential opposition to him utterly divided. Now he made the opposition united again.

His position got weakened, and I'm saying that as I believe he's still going to win the next election.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 28, 2019, 03:55:02 PM
There are time when it is better to be in government, and times when it is better to be in opposition - for example opposition in the UK right now is a far sexier position then government and the Brexit issue. Maybe it will hurt Salvini losing his leavers of power, maybe it will help him to have a full left government as the opposition. Who knows?

And also if PD end up fully stepping into Lega's shoes, maybe the M5S moment will finally be over. The right of the party already bolted for Lega, perhaps the Left will bolt as well for PD.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: rob in cal on August 29, 2019, 01:29:43 AM
Any idea on who gets inferior ministry, and if pd would it be Minneti again?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Lord Halifax on August 29, 2019, 05:00:22 AM
Any idea on who gets inferior ministry, and if pd would it be Minneti again?

Pun intended?



Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on August 29, 2019, 06:09:25 AM
The big problem is the Italian economy is possibly the most dismal in the EU, so a continued failure to promote growth and employment could leave the incumbent government in a pretty bad place.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Ebsy on August 29, 2019, 11:44:16 AM
Maybe the conclusion to be drawn is that Salvini is not actually that gifted of a politician?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Lord Halifax on August 30, 2019, 03:58:27 PM

Is PD against that?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on August 31, 2019, 08:21:59 AM
Thr Five Stars want a reduction in parlimentarians? If only there was a recent effort to abolish the Senate that they could have supported 😒


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 02, 2019, 06:39:12 PM
Zingaretti and Di Maio are very close to a deal. The issue of what the heck to do with Di Maio finally got resolved when Zingaretti proposed a government with no deputies at all. Di Maio at one point seemed like he wanted to be deputy PM or bust, but eventually endorsed the compromise. We still don't know what ministry he'll get shuffled into, but we know it won't be his current super-ministry and won't be the interior either. It won't be the economy either, as the people talked about for that are figures with a European profile (for obvious reasons). Dario Franceschini will probably be the PD's pointman. Di Maio's final request is that the new cabinet not include anyone with a conviction, which seems reasonable enough (although it is admittedly controversial in a country like Italy).

We still know very little about the policy platform of the new cabinet (in particular, what will happen to the security decrees), but we should find out very soon, together with the full cabinet.

Tomorrow M5S's online members will be called to ratify the agreement, which they most likely will if it has Grillo and Di Maio's blessing. Then Conte should announce the new cabinet either the same day or Wednesday. They'd be sworn in soon after, and the confidence vote should be held Friday or Saturday.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: rob in cal on September 03, 2019, 07:34:18 AM
So what happened with di Maios concerns with the deal. Does he feel the pd gave  to him?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: mileslunn on September 03, 2019, 11:50:24 AM
What time approximately will the results be announced?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: mileslunn on September 03, 2019, 12:22:30 PM
What time approximately will the results be announced?

Voting closed at six (1 hour ago) Results are expected imminently. If the Bond yield spread is anything to go by, investors are expecting the deal to pass.

Here are the central points of the draft agreement between PD-M5S: https://www.corriere.it/politica/19_settembre_03/governo-blog-stelle-bozza-programma-m5s-pd-26-punti-a42f91e6-ce1d-11e9-95aa-93e3e08ee08a.shtml

Looks like M5S got a lot of what they wanted, lots of expensive promises in there (including freezing VAT (Sales Tax)) without saying much on how they want to finance it.

Do you have an English translation of the 26 point plan?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: jaichind on September 03, 2019, 12:36:08 PM
SI - 63,146 votes (79.3%)
NO - 16,488 votes (20.7%)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: rob in cal on September 03, 2019, 12:55:53 PM
So does 5star have to repudiate the recently passed security decrees?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Walmart_shopper on September 04, 2019, 01:58:34 AM
The Draft agreement is vague on migration. It speaks of more European cooperation, getting rid of the Dublin regulation, stopping illegal trafficking and and promoting integration (hinting at a long-planned bill to allow for Citizenship for some children of migrants born in Italy)
The 26 points do not (https://www.open.online/2019/09/03/al-via-il-voto-su-rousseau-con-qualche-affanno-tecnico-ecco-il-programma-su-cui-decidono-gli-attivisti-m5s/) forsee a Abolition of the security decree - only amending it in consultation with the President. So not a complete turn on migration policy - as predicted.

As I know this will be interesting to many: The person tapped to be interior minister is Luciana Lamorgese.

If it is Lamorgese then it will be a sharp turn on migration policy.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Andrea on September 04, 2019, 09:49:09 AM
New Cabinet

Foreign Affairs: Luigi Di Maio (M5S)
Home Affairs: Luciana Lamorgese
Justice Alfonso Bonafede (M5S)
Defense: Lorenzo Guerini (PD)
Economy and finances: Roberto Gualtieri (PD)
Ministro dello sviluppo economico: Stefano Patuanelli (M5S)
Transportsi: Paola De Micheli (PD)
Agricolture: Teresa Bellanova (PD)
Environment : Sergio Costa (M5S)
Work and Social Policies: Nunzia Catalfo (M5S)
Education: Lorenzo Fioramonti (M5S)
Culture and Tourism: Dario Franceschini (PD)
Health: Roberto Speranza (Article One aka Bersani's splinters)

Regional Affairs: Francesco Boccia (PD)
South: Giuseppe Provenzano (PD)
Equal Opportunities and Family: Elena Bonetti (PD)
Relationship with Parliament: Federico d'Incà (M5S)
Technological Innovation and Digitalization: Paola Pisano (M5S)
Public Administration: Fabiana Dadone (M5S)
European Affairs: Enzo Amendola (PD)

Secretary to the Cabinet Presidency: Riccardo Fraccaro (M5S)

Cabinet will be sworn in tomorrow at 10 am.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 04, 2019, 01:40:49 PM
Di Maio won another concession from Zingaretti in appointing a close ally as Secretary to the Presidency of the Council. Until very recently PD was intent on keeping that post for itself as a way to keep an eye on Conte (like Lega had last year). PD has given up a LOT from its original demands, and I honestly have no idea why given that they have much less to lose from a new election than M5S. Still, good news that they found an agreement.

Journalists have noted that Southerners are overrepresented in the new team, forming an outright majority of 11 out of 21. It makes some degree of sense given that M5S's voter base is largely Southern, but I like to think that they also want to spite the Lega. Also, there are only 7 women out of 21, not nearly the gender parity that Conte was supposedly trying to promote.

Lots of new (or at least not too seasoned) faces in the cabinet, although Franceschini did land a job in the end. The "heaviest" ministry for PD is obviously the Economy with Gualtieri, who will become the first explicitly partisan economy minister since 2011, which is a nice break from the post-Monti era of Italian politics. Toninelli is mercifully out of the infrastructure ministry, his run of it having been widely considered a disaster. De Micheli is close to Zingaretti and probably comes closest to being his "eyes" in the new government. She's relatively new and I'm curious to see how she does. Speranza from MDP is an interesting choice, since he has some very bad blood with the Renzi wing of the party. I'm also somewhat surprised that Nicola Morra didn't make it into the government team, he's a widely respected M5S parliamentary leader and is ideologically on the left wing of the party.

Swearing-in tomorrow morning, as Andrea said. Meaning we'll finally be rid of Salvini and be able to come back to a sane management of refugee arrivals.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: rob in cal on September 04, 2019, 01:45:56 PM
Wondering in the end if the new government will  help keep 5star together and viable as a long-term movement or whether it's electoral decline will continue.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Walmart_shopper on September 05, 2019, 02:50:56 AM
Di Maio won another concession from Zingaretti in appointing a close ally as Secretary to the Presidency of the Council. Until very recently PD was intent on keeping that post for itself as a way to keep an eye on Conte (like Lega had last year). PD has given up a LOT from its original demands, and I honestly have no idea why given that they have much less to lose from a new election than M5S. Still, good news that they found an agreement.

Journalists have noted that Southerners are overrepresented in the new team, forming an outright majority of 11 out of 21. It makes some degree of sense given that M5S's voter base is largely Southern, but I like to think that they also want to spite the Lega. Also, there are only 7 women out of 21, not nearly the gender parity that Conte was supposedly trying to promote.

Lots of new (or at least not too seasoned) faces in the cabinet, although Franceschini did land a job in the end. The "heaviest" ministry for PD is obviously the Economy with Gualtieri, who will become the first explicitly partisan economy minister since 2011, which is a nice break from the post-Monti era of Italian politics. Toninelli is mercifully out of the infrastructure ministry, his run of it having been widely considered a disaster. De Micheli is close to Zingaretti and probably comes closest to being his "eyes" in the new government. She's relatively new and I'm curious to see how she does. Speranza from MDP is an interesting choice, since he has some very bad blood with the Renzi wing of the party. I'm also somewhat surprised that Nicola Morra didn't make it into the government team, he's a widely respected M5S parliamentary leader and is ideologically on the left wing of the party.

Swearing-in tomorrow morning, as Andrea said. Meaning we'll finally be rid of Salvini and be able to come back to a sane management of refugee arrivals.

It is totally possible that PD simply believes getting its hat handed to them by M5S is much better and even politically preferable than handing alt-right fascists total control of Italy through a new election. Politics are so cynical these days that we cannot compute an act of humble, patriotic duty as just that. At least with the finance AND interior ministries and a list of doable legislative demands PD still has a huge say in how Italy is governed. And it gives a real shot at keeping Salvini out of power for at least three years and quite possibly longer. Frankly this is how politics OUGHT to work and it is embarassing to Spain and everywhere else right now that Italy (of all countries) is showing how a people-centered politics works.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 05, 2019, 11:18:26 AM
That's a good point, yeah. I think there is genuine fear of an all-powerful Salvini among the PD's ranks (motivated both by cynical and altruistic considerations). It's hard to explain Renzi's about-face about governing with M5S or Zingaretti's insistence on making it work in the face of repeated humiliations otherwise.

Anyway, the new government was indeed sworn in this morning. Conte then swiftly called Von Der Leyen to indicate that, as rumored, Italy's nominee to the European Commission will be Paolo Gentiloni. He's a solid choice, a respected and seasoned international player who has been able to successfully argue Italy's case in Europe in the past. Even more important, he is being seriously considered for the Economic Affairs portfolio. Netting such a post would be a major diplomatic win for Italy, given that it is directly relevant to the budget negotiations that Italy repeatedly goes through with the EC (the current commissioner, Moscovici, was heavily involved in last year's budget fight).

Aside from that, the new Conte government's first act has been to challenge the constitutionality of a regional law in FVG on grounds that it discriminates against migrants. I don't know the details, but given who governs FVG right now, that's almost certainly a good move, and an obvious change of pace from the yellow-green days.

Confidence vote will be Monday in the House, Tuesday in the Senate.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Velasco on September 06, 2019, 08:08:39 PM
That's a good point, yeah. I think there is genuine fear of an all-powerful Salvini among the PD's ranks (motivated both by cynical and altruistic considerations). It's hard to explain Renzi's about-face about governing with M5S or Zingaretti's insistence on making it work in the face of repeated humiliations otherwise.


Confidence vote will be Monday in the House, Tuesday in the Senate.

This summer Salvini was saying he wanted "full powers". Consider the sinister implications of the two words. The fear within PD ranks was justified. Also, it's remarkable that apparently Salvini fell out the Trump's favour due to his double play with Russia. In spite I find Luigi Di Maio even more disturbing than Albert Rivera, I'm glad that PD reached and agreement with M5S. The change of government in Italy and the recent developments in the British Parliament give some breathing space. I hope the new Conte government lasts enough and everything goes well, although there are signs of economic slowdown everywhere.



Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 07, 2019, 09:42:23 AM
can't wait for Conte to be a sort of perpetual PM that operates as a mouthpiece for whatever coalition has been cobbled together.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 09, 2019, 02:50:19 PM
Conte received the House's confidence tonight: 343 yes, 263 no, 3 abstentions, 21 absent.

Slightly wider numbers than expected, which bodes reasonably well for the Senate vote tomorrow (which should be a little closer due to more potential M5S defections). Conte's definitely got this.

Lega and FdI continued their histrionics today, yelling and holding up chairs inside parliament, and organizing a big demonstration outside. FI didn't participate, although they still had harsh words against the government. TFW Berlusconi is the adult in the room.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 10, 2019, 01:13:09 PM
Confidence in the Senate as well: 169 yes, 133 no, 5 abstentions, 14 absent. Nugnes (former M5S) voted yes, but her three comrades didn't despite all of them hailing from the Movement's left wing. Three Senators for Life also voted yes: Liliana Segre (Holocaust survivor), Elena Cattaneo (stem cell researcher) and Mario Monti (lol). Two dissidents, one from each party: Gianluigi Paragone for M5S, Matteo Richetti for PD. Not the most comfortable majority, but it should hold. The government Conte 2.0 is now fully in power.

The winning for the new government doesn't stop here. Paolo Gentiloni today was appointed European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, arguably the most important job in the EC after its president, and an especially crucial job for a country like Italy that constantly has to negotiate with Europe over its budget. This seems to suggest that Europe is intending to be more lenient with this government than it was with the previous, which is probably the only way this government has a chance to succeed.

Now let's see what they make of all this.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: SPQR on September 14, 2019, 05:01:22 PM
This surprising summer caught everyone by surprise...me included, since I was enjoying my holidays in the seaside when Salvini decided to pull the plug (the day of my birthday, what a gift).

PD did the most sensible thing by agreeing to a government with M5S (and LeU...). Elections in October would have led either to a Lega absolute majority, or a Lega-Fratelli d'Italia easy majority. It would have been frightening to say the least, since they would also have chosen the next President in 2022.

Reaching 2022 is indeed IMO the primary target this gov't should have, timewise.
Even though there are daily rumours of Renzi breaking out of PD and forming his own party within a purely proportional electoral system, and Calenda (former minister of economic development, current eurodeputy) did leave PD following the alliance with M5S.

Interesting times ahead for sure...but interesting is better than scary.
As a PD member who has always deeply despised the 5 Star Movement, I consider myself quite satisfied with this summer's outcome.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on September 17, 2019, 06:18:03 AM
Renzi defects and starts his own party, taking about 20 deputies and 10 Senators with him. He will continue support Conte in the short term he says. Long term the parliamentary Math becomes a bit more tight for Conte. Polls have Renzis Party at some 5%.


Can't he just disappear for the sake of rotting corpse of European left?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: DL on September 17, 2019, 07:02:49 AM
Renzi defects and starts his own party, taking about 20 deputies and 10 Senators with him. He will continue support Conte in the short term he says. Long term the parliamentary Math becomes a bit more tight for Conte. Polls have Renzis Party at some 5%.

What is supposed to be the ideology of this new party?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 17, 2019, 07:19:21 AM
Renzi defects and starts his own party, taking about 20 deputies and 10 Senators with him. He will continue support Conte in the short term he says. Long term the parliamentary Math becomes a bit more tight for Conte. Polls have Renzis Party at some 5%.

What is supposed to be the ideology of this new party?

Their ideology is the middle finger, and that's all that matters in chaotic Italian politics.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 17, 2019, 07:19:28 AM
Hilarious stuff. Actually this might even work out for the best - presuming a new electoral system - so long as the PD and Renzi take the opportunity to fish in somewhat different pools. Of course it's the PD and it's Renzi so... er...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 17, 2019, 07:21:09 AM
Renzi defects and starts his own party, taking about 20 deputies and 10 Senators with him. He will continue support Conte in the short term he says. Long term the parliamentary Math becomes a bit more tight for Conte. Polls have Renzis Party at some 5%.

What is supposed to be the ideology of this new party?

I'm going to hazard a guess that they're pretty much all genepool DCs who claim to favour political Reform in the same vague sense that their parents favoured Stability.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: DL on September 17, 2019, 09:23:31 AM

Centrist liberalism, basically Macronisme. He sees a space having opened up there since FI has been smashed to pieces by Lega and PD having moved left to coalition with M5S.

How can it be a move to the left for the PD to form a coalition with the rightwing populist M5S when the alternative would almost certainly have been a majority government by the even more rightwing and even more populist Lega under Salvini?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Lord Halifax on September 17, 2019, 09:28:11 AM

Centrist liberalism, basically Macronisme. He sees a space having opened up there since FI has been smashed to pieces by Lega and PD having moved left to coalition with M5S.

How can it be a move to the left for the PD to form a coalition with the rightwing populist M5S when the alternative would almost certainly have been a majority government by the even more rightwing and even more populist Lega under Salvini?

They are populists, but not in a way easily linked to a particular position on the left/right scale.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: DL on September 17, 2019, 12:26:44 PM
So Renzi would have preferred a snap election and a salvini majority government? That could have been the last free election in Italy and be the equivalent of the March on Rome in 1923


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 17, 2019, 12:55:32 PM
This New Party is just because his massive Ego and lust for Power cant take PD anymore, thats all.

A big issue is that people in his faction were largely snubbed for jobs in the new government and were... erm... less than pleased about this.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 17, 2019, 06:22:19 PM
This New Party is just because his massive Ego and lust for Power cant take PD anymore, thats all.

A big issue is that people in his faction were largely snubbed for jobs in the new government and were... erm... less than pleased about this.


Renzi defects and starts his own party, taking about 20 deputies and 10 Senators with him. He will continue support Conte in the short term he says. Long term the parliamentary Math becomes a bit more tight for Conte. Polls have Renzis Party at some 5%.

What is supposed to be the ideology of this new party?

Their ideology is the middle finger, and that's all that matters in chaotic Italian politics.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 17, 2019, 11:39:33 PM
This New Party is just because his massive Ego and lust for Power cant take PD anymore, thats all.

A big issue is that people in his faction were largely snubbed for jobs in the new government and were... erm... less than pleased about this.

As petty as Italian politicians (Renzi most certainly included) are, I don't think this was the real reason (or at least not the main one).

A Renzi split from PD has been rumored ever since he resigned the leadership, with a series of speeches that clearly signified he had scores to settle with his party. Zingaretti winning the race to replace him (rather than a more Renzi-friendly figure like Martina or a true loyalist like Giachetti) provided him with a decent excuse. In retrospect, it seems clear that he was getting ready to pack up right around when Salvini pulled the plug on the government, and that at least part of the reason Renzi made an about-face about allying with M5S was in order to give himself enough time to establish his party on firm electoral footing before the elections. All of this had been rumored throughout the past month, but I'll admit I dismissed those rumors because the idea of Renzi breaking out just seemed too ridiculous to me.

Well, clearly it wasn't too ridiculous to him. He's always been frustrated by PD's factionalism, and is very much the kind of guy who would rather be the first man in this village than the second man in Rome. Now he will have his own loyal troops, who will obey his every order, even if these troops make up 5% of parliament rather than 20% of it. Al is correct that this might help ratchet up votes from what is left of the decomposing corpse of Italy's moderate-liberal right. And if the Conte 2.0 government does in fact repeal the Rosatellum and revert to a full PR system, "Italia Viva" (lmao) will have a shot at carving up its own nice in Italian politics. However, this still feels like a dumb move to me, one that will mostly just sow confusion about this government and cement the already strong impression among most Italians that it's full of self-serving career politicians with petty concerns.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: SPQR on September 22, 2019, 05:41:25 AM
Italia Viva currently polls between 3% and 6%.
The deputies which switched from PD to IV are just loyalists, all of the former Renzi supporters which supported Martina (the more moderate candidate) are remaining.

As mentioned above, Renzi just wanted his own party, surrounded by yes-men ready to obey. Factionalism was a big deal in PD, sure, but Renzi vowed to break it while instead all he managed to do was to bring his own bunch of loyalists in power, without any structural change.
Hard to see how his new party is going to work in a different way.

He's going to be aiming for the "moderates", much like Calenda, who broke away from PD one month ago because of the gov't with M5S. But as it is, he's getting support from former PD supporters, while those in FI (both the deputies and voters) are staying clear.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: palandio on September 23, 2019, 02:51:02 PM
A new poll by Scenari Politici - Winpoll commissioned by Il Sole 24 Ore puts Italia Viva at the relatively high mark of 6.4%. Interesting are the voter flows:
1.8% from More Europe
1.6% from the PD
1.5% from Forza Italia
0.4% from non-voters
0.3% from Brothers of Italy
0.3% from Five Stars
0.3% from the Lega
0.2% from others.

I'm always wary of the classical Italian polls that pretend accuracy up to the first digit behind the dot, only to fail miserably on election day, but interesting, if true.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Estrella on September 23, 2019, 03:59:38 PM
Is there a possibility of a Renzi-Bonino-centrist microparties coalition, some kind of Patto Segni - boogaloo elettrico? Perhaps even Berlusconi would join, if it began to look that Lega+FdI would have a majority by themselves in the next election.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 04, 2019, 07:11:40 PM
And still no revision of the Security Decrees. And a week ago M5S shelved the proposal to allow naturalization for children who completed school in Italy (which is f**king insane that it's not allowed already).

Clearly this government has decided that the way to beat Salvini is to be just as vile as he was. Somehow I don't think it will work.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: rob in cal on October 04, 2019, 09:57:50 PM
  If the new government does make a big change in immigration or citizenship laws is that something that could trigger a referendum against it, like Salvini promised?  Also, I wonder if there is a big chunk of five star, lead by Di Maio?, that is fairly right wing when it comes to these issues?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 04, 2019, 11:13:43 PM
  If the new government does make a big change in immigration or citizenship laws is that something that could trigger a referendum against it, like Salvini promised?  Also, I wonder if there is a big chunk of five star, lead by Di Maio?, that is fairly right wing when it comes to these issues?

There was a big chunk of M5S's voter base who supported harsh immigration policies, but those are the voters who now give Salvini access to a easy majority of elections occur. There is still a good chunk of the parliamentarians who are of that right wing, and their actions are those of a party trying to claw back voters - even as it may fracture the fragile alliance (and polls show Salvini is still way out ahead).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Babeuf on October 05, 2019, 09:56:50 AM
Has there been any movement on electoral reform since the M5S-PD coalition began?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 05, 2019, 12:18:15 PM
Has there been any movement on electoral reform since the M5S-PD coalition began?

Surprisingly little. PD and M5S have more or less agreed to bring home the constitutional reform cutting down MPs and only then after that process is complete start worrying about electoral reform. There are some vague rumors that PD is not so keen on pure PR anymore now that Renzi can take away 4-6% out of them and still be viable. That seems to me like missing the forest for the trees in a downright suicidal way, but we'll see.

In the meantime, Salvini used the regions the right controls to put forward a referendum that would make the election law purely single-member FPP, the exact opposite of what was discussed by the current coalition. It's not clear whether his proposal is constitutional, since the resulting law might not be immediately enforceable (you'd be left with an election law that only specifies how you elect 35% of parliament and says nothing of the other 65%). The Constitutional Court will rule on the matter, probably at the beginning of next year.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: El Betico on October 21, 2019, 06:12:34 PM
On Sunday Umbria is going to vote for regional elections...great test match...is the M5S-PD axis winnable on national level? Is the Salvini-led centre-right a viable option on road to national election?





Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 22, 2019, 09:15:39 PM
On Sunday Umbria is going to vote for regional elections...great test match...is the M5S-PD axis winnable on national level? Is the Salvini-led centre-right a viable option on road to national election?

We shall see, but the trend in national polls has been pretty bad for the government parties this month. They (and by they I mean primarily Renzi and Di Maio) have been quibbling and bickering about the details of the upcoming budget law, and are continuing to do so even now that the official draft is out. Each is vetoing the other's proposal, with Renzi seeming to have embarked on a quasi-Norquist-esque anti-tax crusade while Di Maio insist on locking tax evaders up. They'll probably find some way to square the circle, but so far all it does is proving to the country that the M5S-PD-IV alliance is unfit to govern. So I'm pretty pessimistic about Umbria, though you never know.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: El Betico on October 23, 2019, 04:24:12 PM
Things to watch about Umbria elections:

1) In the past, recent past, Umbria was totally a left-wing stronghold...since 1970, the year of the first Italian regional election, only The Left( from Italian Communist Party to PD) has ruled Umbria

2) Now you have a Forza Italia mayor of Perugia( elected in 2014 in the runoff and re-elected in May in the first round with over 60% of the votes...I guess he's quite popular as a mayor), and a member of the League as mayor of Terni, which is a city quite similar to a Rust Belt town economically and culturally speaking...having a right-wing mayor of Terni is like having a right-wing mayor of Buffalo, from a certain point of a view, but not a traditional conservative one in this case

3) After 2018 general elections, Umbria is represented in Rome only by right-wing politicians, considering only the first-past-the-post-constituencies...their candidate for regional president, Donatella Tesei, is the sitting senator from Terni FPTP constituency

4) For the first time ever, M5S and PD are running together behind the same candidate for president

5) Winner of 2015( and 2010) regional election, PD's Catiuscia Marini, was forced to resign because of a corruption scandal that hit her party in the Healthcare sector

6) Centre-right is not united...their candidate in the 2015 election, moderate Claudio Ricci, is running alone with a so-called civic coalition, opposed to Tesei, who is backed by Ricci former party Forza Italia

Umbria may be a small region, but there is so much at stake on its Sunday elections...who will be hit by final results? The center-left plus M5S coalition, with M5S probably running alone in future elections in case of a bad result, or a centre-right now even formally led by Salvini with the moderates sidelined?

( Yes, I'm a Spaniard...but I'm paying a big attention to the Italian developments because a successful Left + M5S government I think it could in some ways influence developments in my home country...M5S, in many ways, is a milder, on left side, version of Podemos).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: El Betico on October 23, 2019, 04:32:38 PM
Oh, a side note...if the right-wing candidate Donatella Tesei won, she'd be the third female Umbrian regional president in a row, after Maria Rita Lorenzetti( 2000-2010) and Catiuscia Marini( 2010-2019)...peculiar, thinking that as of today, in the rest of Italy, only Aosta Valley, with Nicoletta Spelgatti, and Friuli Venezia Giulia, with Alessandra Guerra, had had a female as their president of the region...either Spelgatti and Guerra were member of the League party.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 23, 2019, 07:18:04 PM
Oh, a side note...if the right-wing candidate Donatella Tesei won, she'd be the third female Umbrian regional president in a row, after Maria Rita Lorenzetti( 2000-2010) and Catiuscia Marini( 2010-2019)...peculiar, thinking that as of today, in the rest of Italy, only Aosta Valley, with Nicoletta Spelgatti, and Friuli Venezia Giulia, with Alessandra Guerra, had had a female as their president of the region...either Spelgatti and Guerra were member of the League party.

Debora Serracchiani (then PD, now IV) was FVG's president before Guerra.

Renata Polverini (independent backed by FI) was also president of Lazio from 2010 to 2013 (she too had to resign after a corruption scandal). And there might be others I'm forgetting.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: El Betico on October 23, 2019, 08:06:22 PM
Yes, you're totally right, I guess my memory had "a little" faltered...still, I think from this point of view Umbria is a huge exception in Italian "panorama", nearly 20 years without having a male regional president who isn't merely an acting one...being a motor sports follower, I also happen to know that in the late Marco Simoncelli home town of Coriano( Emilia Romagna) they hadn't had a male for mayor since 1993...by the way, it was only a simple and abstract observation, I don't think it will be in any case an issue, and -based on polls I have seen- Italy even doesn't have a real gender gap when it comes to vote.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 23, 2019, 08:51:41 PM
Oh, yeah, I'm definitely not denying that there are sadly very few women in leadership roles in Italy to this day, and that does make Umbria's case (and Coriano's) pretty interesting. Also worth noting that M5S and PD had initially agreed to run a woman as well (Francesca Di Maolo, the head of a Catholic institution for disabled people), but she declined the offer.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: The Conte is dead, long live the Conte!
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 27, 2019, 12:25:17 PM
Turnout at noon was 20%. No idea why we don't have updated numbers yet.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 27, 2019, 01:47:24 PM
Turnout at 7pm was 53%, a 13-point jump from the last election in 2015. Clearly the voters have internalized that this is a major test for the government and want to make their voice heard about it. We'll see what their voice actually IS.

Full results here in a little more than 2 hours: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/regionali/votanti/20191027/votantiRI10000


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 27, 2019, 04:28:47 PM
Polls close in 30 more minutes actually (forgot that DST ended this weekend in Europe).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: jaichind on October 27, 2019, 05:12:45 PM
League Candidate at 56.5% to 60.5% in Umbria Vote: Exit Polls


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: Umengus on October 27, 2019, 05:21:45 PM
League Candidate at 56.5% to 60.5% in Umbria Vote: Exit Polls

wow


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: jaichind on October 27, 2019, 05:23:12 PM
How come Italia Viva did not put up a candidate in Umbria?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: bigic on October 27, 2019, 05:54:40 PM
The Italian right seems to overperform the polls in this case? This seemed to be a tight race according to the polls...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: El Betico on October 27, 2019, 05:59:07 PM
Umbria is like Trumbull County or sort of, I think...long-time left-wing stronghold who fell in love with a particular rightist leader...no way a Berlusconi-led centre-right could have won there, like no other Republican presidential candidate could have won Trumbull and similar ones.

To complete the argument: I think it's the poorest non-Southern region, so I don't think immigration in much of an issue there...Salvini success in this former Communist stronghold should have other reasons.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: Umengus on October 27, 2019, 06:03:59 PM
The Italian right seems to overperform the polls in this case? This seemed to be a tight race according to the polls...

the last polls was in right favor  but not so much. In the last (Eu and regionals) elections, I observed that the italian polls tended to underestimated the right.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: Umengus on October 27, 2019, 06:04:22 PM

Lega: 38,5%
FDI: 11,0%
Forza Italia: 5,8%
Civiche Tesei: 6,7%
PD: 19,0%
M5S: 8,6%
Civica Bianconi: 2,4%
Sinistra: 1,4%
Verdi: 1,4%


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on October 27, 2019, 06:09:19 PM

Lega: 38,5%
FDI: 11,0%
Forza Italia: 5,8%
Civiche Tesei: 6,7%
PD: 19,0%
M5S: 8,6%
Civica Bianconi: 2,4%
Sinistra: 1,4%
Verdi: 1,4%

So, the center-left forces are performing at about their national polling averages (itself profoundly saddening given that it's Umbria), but M5S is bombing harder than the Allies at Monte Cassino?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: El Betico on October 27, 2019, 06:13:19 PM
The Italian right seems to overperform the polls in this case? This seemed to be a tight race according to the polls...

the last polls was in right favor  but not so much. In the last (Eu and regionals) elections, I observed that the italian polls tended to underestimated the right.

My bet: Salvini shy-voters, in particular if they are of Southern origin.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: SPQR on October 27, 2019, 06:41:28 PM
The Right's victory was expected - Umbria was the region perhaps hit the hardest by the economic crisis, from which it hasn't recovered yet, and the center-left after 50 years of local administration had been losing for the last 5 years.
Even as Renzi was winning 2014's elections with 40%, PD were losing Perugia to Forza Italia.

Nonetheless, the defeat for the "structural alliance between PD and M5S" faction is quite bitter.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: jaichind on October 27, 2019, 06:41:37 PM
The Italian right seems to overperform the polls in this case? This seemed to be a tight race according to the polls...

the last polls was in right favor  but not so much. In the last (Eu and regionals) elections, I observed that the italian polls tended to underestimated the right.

My bet: Salvini shy-voters, in particular if they are of Southern origin.

I think part of it must be tactical voting by Ricci for the Center-Right bloc


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on October 27, 2019, 06:43:23 PM
Nonetheless, the defeat for the "structural alliance between PD and M5S" faction is quite bitter.

Yeah, the biggest loser here (other than the people of Umbria) is M5S, not only because of the utter wipeout in the election itself but because it's led by a nitwit who'll probably take this as evidence that his party is Better Off Going It Alone.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: El Betico on October 27, 2019, 06:52:49 PM
Allied with the centre-left, M5S is the new Communist Refoundation in terms of votes received( during my Italian University Years, I really had a political crush on its leader Bertinotti...I thought high of him even on a European level, he's totally disappeared).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: jaichind on October 27, 2019, 06:55:54 PM
With around 5% sections reporting it is

Centre-right       58.75%
Centre-left–M5S 36.83%
Ricci                   2.03%

which seems to match exit polls


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: El Betico on October 27, 2019, 07:25:36 PM
Nonetheless, the defeat for the "structural alliance between PD and M5S" faction is quite bitter.

Yeah, the biggest loser here (other than the people of Umbria) is M5S, not only because of the utter wipeout in the election itself but because it's led by a nitwit who'll probably take this as evidence that his party is Better Off Going It Alone.

"Il patto civico per l'Umbria lo abbiamo sempre considerato un laboratorio, ma l'esperimento non ha funzionato. Il Movimento nella sua storia non aveva mai provato una strada simile. E questa esperienza testimonia che potremo davvero rappresentare la terza via solo guardando oltre i due poli contrapposti"lo scrive il M5S in un post sulla propria pagina di Facebook.

"We always thought of the "Civic pact for Umbria" as a laboratory, but the experiment didn't work. The Movement had never tried before a similar approach in its history. And this experience shows that we can really be the Third Way only looking outside of the two opposite political poles", writes M5S on a note on its official Facebook page.

Sorry for possibile bad translating, but roughly this is basically what it says. They were pretty fast to realize your prediction.



Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on October 27, 2019, 07:28:06 PM
Nonetheless, the defeat for the "structural alliance between PD and M5S" faction is quite bitter.

Yeah, the biggest loser here (other than the people of Umbria) is M5S, not only because of the utter wipeout in the election itself but because it's led by a nitwit who'll probably take this as evidence that his party is Better Off Going It Alone.

"Il patto civico per l'Umbria lo abbiamo sempre considerato un laboratorio, ma l'esperimento non ha funzionato. Il Movimento nella sua storia non aveva mai provato una strada simile. E questa esperienza testimonia che potremo davvero rappresentare la terza via solo guardando oltre i due poli contrapposti"lo scrive il M5S in un post sulla propria pagina di Facebook.

"We always thought of the "Civic pact for Umbria" as a laboratory, but the experiment didn't worked. The Movement in its history hadn't try before a similar approach. And this experienxe shows that we can really be the Third Way only looking outside the two opposite political poles", writes M5S in a note on its official Facebook page.

Sorry for possibile bad translating, but roughly this is basically what it says. They were pretty fast to realize your prediction.

You know, maybe they're right about this. I hope they're not because that'll made threading the needle for the anti-leghista forces even harder going forward, but maybe they really did suffer from being seen as an appendage of muh liberal establishment.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: El Betico on October 27, 2019, 09:59:31 PM
List of Italian regional governments after Umbria update

Aosta Valley: coalition of local autonomist parties, led by Union Valdotaine
Piedmont: Centre-right
Lombardy: Centre-right
Liguria: Centre-right( next election on Spring 2020)
Veneto: Centre-right( next election on Spring 2020)
Friuli Venezia-Giulia: Centre-right
Trentino-South Tyrol: no regional government but two provincial ones, in Trento Centre-right, in Bozen SVP with League as junior coalition partner
Emilia-Romagna: Centre-left( next election on January 26th, 2020)
Tuscany: Centre-left( next election on Spring 2020)
Umbria: Centre-right
Marche: Centre-left( next election on Spring 2020)
Lazio: Centre-left( Nicola Zingaretti)
Abruzzo: Centre-right
Molise: Centre-right
Campania: Centre-left( next election on Spring 2020)
Apulia: Centre-left( next election on Spring 2020)
Basilicata: Centre-right
Calabria: Centre-left( next election on December or January, date still unknown)
Sicily: Centre-right
Sardinia: Centre-right


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 28, 2019, 02:41:23 PM
Well, this is bad.

Di Maio has already said that the experiment of alliances with PD is over, and frankly, it's hard to fault him. M5S voters will simply not accept electoral alliances of any kind. So whatever benefit there might have been in combining M5S and PD's strength is negated by the fact that M5S's strength just won't transfer here.

The only hope for this government to minimize their defeat (and let's be clear, it will be a defeat, whenever the next elections happen) is to implement an electoral system that's as proportional as possible. There are obvious downsides to this (for one, the voters would probably see it as the desperate trick it is) but it remains the only possible way to ensure that Salvini doesn't hold absolute power after the next vote. I hope they realize the stakes here.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: SPQR on October 28, 2019, 03:50:52 PM
Apparently half of M5S voters stayed home, 20% went to Lega, just 2% voted PD.

You can make a government out of nowhere, but you can't make electoral alliances from one day to the other, and with no common vision.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Umbria Regional Election 10/27
Post by: bigic on October 30, 2019, 08:24:17 AM


Higher than MSI ever received (9.2 in 1972 Senate elections).

But it's still lower than the Alleanza Nazionale record (15,7% in 1996).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 31, 2019, 01:00:27 PM
Updated topic to something more topical (and fitting to the situation, since Conte has been under so many attacks lately that he's basically turning into a zombie PM).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: Umengus on November 03, 2019, 06:51:01 AM
Whatever lingering doubts there were remaining about the Governments migration policy, today the Deal between Italy and the Libyan Coast Guard was extended for another three Years, despite the pleas of Human Rights Organisations and rescuers to stop it.
The number of people trying to come and the number drowning has reduced dramatically since the deal was signed, but its a deal with the devil. The Libyan Coast Guard are pretty terrible people, criminals and militia members among them, and routinely accused of doing  horrible abuses (UN report) (https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=24037&LangID=E&fbclid=IwAR2-QsMuQwqesH0NCIIRkmBDkRA5BDWJthJjxCUwpIATHktTg8Xx83ia0mI) to migrants. They have also shot at rescue ships.

Typical Europe. Preach Human Rights and Democracy, but pay Libya/Morocco/Turkey to do the dirty work where there are no pesky independent courts for people to turn to and no free press to cover it.
Literally way worse than Trump, but claim the moral high ground as the bastion of the enlightened free world or something.

So migrants should stay at home.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on November 04, 2019, 12:18:49 PM
Whatever lingering doubts there were remaining about the Governments migration policy, today the Deal between Italy and the Libyan Coast Guard was extended for another three Years, despite the pleas of Human Rights Organisations and rescuers to stop it.
The number of people trying to come and the number drowning has reduced dramatically since the deal was signed, but its a deal with the devil. The Libyan Coast Guard are pretty terrible people, criminals and militia members among them, and routinely accused of doing  horrible abuses (UN report) (https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=24037&LangID=E&fbclid=IwAR2-QsMuQwqesH0NCIIRkmBDkRA5BDWJthJjxCUwpIATHktTg8Xx83ia0mI) to migrants. They have also shot at rescue ships.

Typical Europe. Preach Human Rights and Democracy, but pay Libya/Morocco/Turkey to do the dirty work where there are no pesky independent courts for people to turn to and no free press to cover it.
Literally way worse than Trump, but claim the moral high ground as the bastion of the enlightened free world or something.

So migrants should stay at home.

Are you familiar with the expression "between the devil and the deep blue sea"?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: rob in cal on November 04, 2019, 12:24:45 PM
  Any indication of whether the extension provoked much disagreement within the coalition?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 04, 2019, 03:18:14 PM
  Any indication of whether the extension provoked much disagreement within the coalition?

Not really. They're too busy tearing each other apart over the budget bill.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: MRCVzla on November 25, 2019, 12:10:48 AM
A little update about several issues
In these weeks the "Sardines" citizen movement has emerged strongly, headed mainly by students, and that after a mass demonstration in Bologna on November 14, they have multiplied throughout Italy from North to South, they are described as people without party flags, but with a clear rival such as anti-fascism and Salvini's ideas.

At the same time there is the whole drama of the elaboration of the "Manovra" (the budgets) and how the gialorosso government tries to have the accounts in order, although other problems arise in the economic (all the -ex- Ilva scandal).

In the electoral, it has already been confirmed that on January 29 there will be regional elections in Emilia Romagna and Calabria, they already have polls from the earlier and seem to indicate a closed race with a slight advantage of the candidate of the center-left and incumbent Regional President Stefano Bonaccini regarding his right-wing rival, Leghista senatrice Lucia Borgonzoni (both had their first debate on TV last Tuesday), the M5S will present candidate and independent lists after a consultation on the Rosseau platform in which a 70% rejected an "electoral break" of the MoVimento in the next regional elections to prepare for the next general election.

This week, has formally presented itself as a political party "Azione" (Action), the rename of "Siamo Europei", the centrist pro-EU movement from Carlo Calenda and Matteo Richetti. While in the orbit of the center-right in its minority centrist area, more possible defections are rumored from Forza Italy, with a Berlusconi that has even suggested not presenting its symbol in a future general election, and a reunification of much of the spectrum of the former DC.
 
And with all the possible referendum flying over there (confirmation of the reduction of parliamentarians, electoral law with pure FPTP...)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: El Betico on December 13, 2019, 11:56:30 AM
Can somebody please explain the current platform differences between Lega and Fratelli d’Italia?

Lega still wants authonomy for Northern Regions...Hermanos de Italia, I don't think the are big fans of it.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: crals on December 13, 2019, 12:53:08 PM
Can somebody please explain the current platform differences between Lega and Fratelli d’Italia?

Lega still wants authonomy for Northern Regions...Hermanos de Italia, I don't think the are big fans of it.
The Lega still wants that? I thought they had basically given up on it when they expanded to the South


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 13, 2019, 02:24:39 PM
Can somebody please explain the current platform differences between Lega and Fratelli d’Italia?

Lega still wants authonomy for Northern Regions...Hermanos de Italia, I don't think the are big fans of it.
The Lega still wants that? I thought they had basically given up on it when they expanded to the South

They still support muh federalism, though now they try to pretend it's not a North vs South thing (even though it very much is in practice).

The real differences between Lega and FdI are more cultural than ideological, though. They are heirs to very different political traditions, even if the two have now converged on a similar platform.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 13, 2019, 11:10:16 PM
Can somebody please explain the current platform differences between Lega and Fratelli d’Italia?

Lega still wants authonomy for Northern Regions...Hermanos de Italia, I don't think the are big fans of it.
The Lega still wants that? I thought they had basically given up on it when they expanded to the South

They still support muh federalism, though now they try to pretend it's not a North vs South thing (even though it very much is in practice).

The real differences between Lega and FdI are more cultural than ideological, though. They are heirs to very different political traditions, even if the two have now converged on a similar platform.

Would you mind elaborating on this?

The short version is that FdI is a continuation of the postfascist current in Italy, with all that implies in terms of disturbing historical references (they're not overtly supportive of Mussolini anymore, but they also aren't really interested in condemning him - think of it sort of like the way Southern Republicans treat the Confederacy these days). This means they do best in Lazio and in some areas of the South, and their electorate has always skewed poorer. Meanwhile, Lega's core constituency are Northern small business owners, and their cultural tradition is steeped into weird Northern Italian folklore with neopagan undertones (they still have this whole ritual about drinking the Po's water). Salvini has moved them away from that, but the roots are still there.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 14, 2019, 06:30:49 AM
(they still have this whole ritual about drinking the Po's water)


Like, what?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 14, 2019, 07:37:38 AM

()

I am still amazed.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on December 14, 2019, 09:50:17 AM
Italy might even have a contest between FdI and Lega if we continue like this.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: SPQR on December 15, 2019, 10:39:14 AM
Italy might even have a contest between FdI and Lega if we continue like this.
Erm, no.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: Kingpoleon on December 21, 2019, 02:25:12 PM
The short version is that FdI is a continuation of the postfascist current in Italy, with all that implies in terms of disturbing historical references (they're not overtly supportive of Mussolini anymore, but they also aren't really interested in condemning him - think of it sort of like the way Southern Republicans treat the Confederacy these days). This means they do best in Lazio and in some areas of the South, and their electorate has always skewed poorer. Meanwhile, Lega's core constituency are Northern small business owners, and their cultural tradition is steeped into weird Northern Italian folklore with neopagan undertones (they still have this whole ritual about drinking the Po's water). Salvini has moved them away from that, but the roots are still there.
Not sure if that says much - the actual neo-Confederates here have tried to assassinate Southern Republicans.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: President Johnson on January 22, 2020, 03:36:55 PM

That's good. He should also resign as foreign minister, because the guy has zero credentials for this job. He's merely a political hack, who didn't finish university and has no knowledge of the English language.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: jaichind on January 22, 2020, 03:38:43 PM
Luigi Di Maio steps down as leader of 5 Star Movement right before this weekend regional elections.  I suspect a general election is not too far off.  PM Matteo Salvini coming soon I suspect.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: mileslunn on January 22, 2020, 06:16:06 PM
Is it pretty much inevitable that Salvini is going to become PM someday?  This could get very interesting and actually if he follows through on his plans, could really hurt the Eurozone and may even be a lifeline to Brexiters in UK who can point to that as why they are better off outside EU than inside due to mess.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 22, 2020, 06:33:21 PM
Is it pretty much inevitable that Salvini is going to become PM someday?  This could get very interesting and actually if he follows through on his plans, could really hurt the Eurozone and may even be a lifeline to Brexiters in UK who can point to that as why they are better off outside EU than inside due to mess.

Yes, I would say it's inevitable that Salvini gets power someday. Lega, through it's ideological transformation from a regional party to a far-right one, has co-opted the machine that Berlusconi used to previously dominate Italian politics. In doing so, Salvini has taken the position Berlusconi used to hold...and Berlusconi never really vanished from Italian politics.  He just rode the natural winds of fate that swing countries from one pole to another, never really leaving his position even when the Right was on the downswing. If Lega doesn't get power this time, Salvini will still stay on (since Lega will at minimum double it's seats) and get it next time. The man's 46, he's got a lot of years to preside over the Right like Berlusconi did in his heyday.  

But it will be hard to beat him this time. The right alliance from last time continues to have >50% in polls, and the electoral system hasn't been changed...yet.



Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 22, 2020, 06:58:08 PM
Important to note that an electoral reform bill is currently working its way through Parliament, which would establish a German-like MMP system with a 5% threshold. There's likely to be some haggling over the details among government forces, but all of them have a vested interest in agreeing on something along these lines. And there's a non-insignificant chance that all or parts of Forza Italia back the idea too. It's far from a done deal, but it's something to watch.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: brucejoel99 on January 22, 2020, 10:37:56 PM
Luigi Di Maio steps down as leader of 5 Star Movement right before this weekend regional elections.  I suspect a general election is not too far off.  PM Matteo Salvini coming soon I suspect.

Man, who would've guessed that a directionless party with "establishment sux" as the party platform would go nowhere.

At least you know what you'll get with Salvini (ugh)


That's good. He should also resign as foreign minister, because the guy has zero credentials for this job. He's merely a political hack, who didn't finish university and has no knowledge of the English language.

30-something y/o, a college dropout, a former stadium drink seller, with no English (or correct Italian) spoken.

Ladies & gentlemen, the minister of foreign affairs.

Important to note that an electoral reform bill is currently working its way through Parliament, which would establish a German-like MMP system with a 5% threshold. There's likely to be some haggling over the details among government forces, but all of them have a vested interest in agreeing on something along these lines. And there's a non-insignificant chance that all or parts of Forza Italia back the idea too. It's far from a done deal, but it's something to watch.

Italy really is a funny case at this point. A few years ago, they changed the system & made it less proportional in an effort to keep the populists away from government, yet now that Salvini has the largest party, everybody has changed their tune: Salvini wants to move as far away from proportional representation as possible while everybody else wants to make the system as proportional as possible.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on January 26, 2020, 07:11:06 AM
So Emilia-Romania and Calabria today. Probably the first one is more interesting. Is there any chance of local coalition between left and M5S in Emilia?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: bigic on January 26, 2020, 08:54:51 AM
The centre-left, if they win, won't even need M5S. The winning coalition effectively has a guaranteed majority.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on January 26, 2020, 09:23:10 AM
The centre-left, if they win, won't even need M5S. The winning coalition effectively has a guaranteed majority.

Just started to read about regional electoral system. Should done it earlier lol


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 26, 2020, 01:59:12 PM
The M5S tried to enter a stealth electoral path with PD by just not running candidates at all (with the assumption that whatever voter base they have left at this point will back PD over Lega), but M5S activists, in their infinite wisdom, decided otherwise. So now the M5S is running token lists in a race they know to be beyond hopeless, and probably just hurting their coalition partner in the process.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: SPQR on January 26, 2020, 02:07:07 PM
There was talk that regional leaders of M5S in Emilia Romagna were trying to convince voters to vote for the M5S list but for Bonaccini (center-left) as president...doubt it will have much of an effect though.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: bigic on January 26, 2020, 02:50:41 PM
A few graphs on relationship between the change in turnout compared to 2014 and partisan lean of municipalities. This might not be a particularly good indicator but it is, along with pre-election polls, everything we have until the polls close...

Open the tweet to see the whole thread.



Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: palandio on January 26, 2020, 04:25:14 PM
The M5S tried to enter a stealth electoral path with PD by just not running candidates at all (with the assumption that whatever voter base they have left at this point will back PD over Lega), but M5S activists, in their infinite wisdom, decided otherwise. So now the M5S is running token lists in a race they know to be beyond hopeless, and probably just hurting their coalition partner in the process.
Also significant, but not surprising, that among the seven coalitions running there are center-left, center-right, M5S, some anti-vaxers and three far-left coalitions (Power to the People, The Other Emilia-Romagna and the Communist Party). Three out of seven. No competition on the right, if you don't count the anti-vaxers.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: jaichind on January 26, 2020, 05:01:44 PM
Exit poll has Dem ahead 49 to 46


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: Clarko95 📚💰📈 on January 26, 2020, 05:09:12 PM
Exit poll Tecné - Mediaset:

BONACCINI (CSX): 46,5-50,5%

BORGONZONI (CDX): 43.5-47.5%

BENINI (M5S): 2-6%

---------------

Exit poll Opinio (copertura 80%):

BONACCINI (CSX): 47-51%

BORGONZONI (CDX): 44-48%

BENINI (M5S): 2-5%


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: Clarko95 📚💰📈 on January 26, 2020, 05:11:26 PM
()


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: Mike88 on January 26, 2020, 05:37:48 PM
The exit polls in both Emilia-Romagna and Calabrian seem in line with pre-election polls. The high turnout in Emilia-Romagna seems to have benefited both the PD and Lega. M5S... well, it's basically over for them, isn't it?

Counting will be very slow, right?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: parochial boy on January 26, 2020, 05:41:50 PM
"Centro"destra? That's kind of a joke at this point, no?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: Mike88 on January 26, 2020, 05:54:02 PM
Latest prediction:



The gap between Sinistra and "Destra", let's put it just like that, seems to be growing.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2019: Night of the Living Conte
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 26, 2020, 06:23:29 PM
"Centro"destra? That's kind of a joke at this point, no?

The term is used often when calculating local Italian parties/results. It's used not because people are center-left/right, but more that the various candidates who align with the factions, goals, and political clans of the local teams can go from center to the extremes of the extremes. It's therefore a catch-all term to imply "from the center, to the Right/Left".


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 26, 2020, 06:45:39 PM
SWG projects 51% Bonaccini, 43% Borgonzoni, 4% Benini (lol)

If true, that's a solid result for the left given the circumstances.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 26, 2020, 07:24:39 PM
Looking at the evolution of Emilia Romagna, it seems most M5S voters just voted for the right?

Obviously more complicated than that I assume? Who did M5S voters vote for before 2013? The left or Berlusconi?


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 26, 2020, 07:37:58 PM
Who did M5S voters vote for before 2013? The left or Berlusconi?

Yes.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 26, 2020, 07:50:42 PM
Bonaccini takes the lead of the actual vote count, with about 10% of precincts counted.



Yeah, the original M5S electorate was a really weird eclectic mix, coming from all sides of the political spectrum and united mostly by their contempt for the establishment. On the other hand, the remaining M5S vote after Lega cannibalized its electorate is probably left-leaning, and their defection from M5S is probably what allowed Bonaccini to win.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 26, 2020, 09:15:50 PM
Borgonzoni conceded, and the ER results are fast trending toward a solid win for Bonaccini, with an 8- or 9-point margin. This is actually starting to look like a bad night for Salvini. He could easily have spun a close loss as a moral victory, given that we're talking of the second most left-wing region in the country, but now that it's not even close, he clearly lost the expectations game.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on January 26, 2020, 09:43:26 PM
Is this an area that was trending right? If so, good result for Bonaccini.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 26, 2020, 09:53:04 PM
Is this an area that was trending right? If so, good result for Bonaccini.

Trends are hard to gauge in a multipolar system like Italy, but right-leaning parties won more votes than left-leaning ones in the EU elections last time. What happened though is less than the right lost ground and more that the left gained votes from M5S.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on January 26, 2020, 10:06:45 PM
Is this an area that was trending right? If so, good result for Bonaccini.

Trends are hard to gauge in a multipolar system like Italy, but right-leaning parties won more votes than left-leaning ones in the EU elections last time. What happened though is less than the right lost ground and more that the left gained votes from M5S.
Interesting. I would have thought their collapse would mostly benefit the right, given the trends happening around the world.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 27, 2020, 01:20:37 AM
Almost all the votes are counted, only a few scattered precincts left.

Direct vote:
Bonaccini (Left) 51.4%
Borgonzoni (Right) 43.7%
Benini (M5S) 3.5%

List vote (counting those that got more than 2%):
PD 34.7%
Lega 31.9%
FdI 8.6%
Left-aligned indy list 5.8%
M5S 4.7%
Left-aligned indy list 3.8%
FI 2.6% (lol)


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on January 27, 2020, 05:21:04 AM
Quite a few pundits had their now familiar spiels prepared in the event of a right wing win.

Nice to see them inconvenienced for once :)


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: Cassius on January 27, 2020, 10:25:41 AM
Quite a few pundits had their now familiar spiels prepared in the event of a right wing win.

Nice to see them inconvenienced for once :)

Don’t really see how this can be spun as a setback for the right (even if elements of the mainstream media are trying very hard) - the Democrats lost one of the two regions that voted, whilst in the other (one in the heart of the cintura rossa that has been run by the left and centre-left for all but three of the last fifty years) they won by a modest margin after leading in almost every poll throughout the campaign, whilst the right’s vote went up considerably.

Once again, I feel, certain elements within the media have chosen to adopt a fairly unrealistic yardstick to measure the success of the hard right and then, once they fail to meet that yardstick, dressed it up as some great victory for the ‘centre’. We seem to have this in every European election now, where the result is either presented as ‘the centre has held’ or a ‘wake up call for the parties of the centre’, regardless of the particular context of the election. LN+FdI winning 40% of the vote in a red belt region augurs very well for their chances in any future election, whilst the Democrats winning despite scoring an anaemic vote share, by their standards, does not. I suppose we just have to wait until the right wins another regional election and then we’ll be back to ‘ITALY ON THE BRINK’, ‘BOND MARKETS ROCKED’, ‘TURNING AND TURNING IN A WIDENING GYRE’ again.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on January 27, 2020, 10:30:51 AM
But didn't polls also indicate the right could win ER?

If so, then it wasn't just the pundits (for whom I share your disdain)


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: Cassius on January 27, 2020, 10:41:05 AM
I mean, the polls were close but as far as i’m aware the centre-left was almost always in the lead, so a centre-left victory was hardly an unlikely scenario. Nonetheless, I read about this result on Bloomberg earlier today and they actually (in a non-opinion piece) described it as a ‘humiliation’ for Salvini, which just seems frankly bizarre in the context of the polls and the region’s history as a left wing stronghold.

It was a humiliation for M5S though, so I don’t particularly see how it bodes well for the future of the current Conte government (as parts of the media are now trumpeting). I suppose, on the one hand, if they leave government they risk getting wiped out in an early election, but on the other if they continue to stay in there they risk further erosion of their support and possibly being reduced to an adjunct of the centre-left coalition, which probably won’t be particularly helpful to them either.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 27, 2020, 12:52:24 PM
Once again, I feel, certain elements within the media have chosen to adopt a fairly unrealistic yardstick to measure the success of the hard right

The thing is, that's the yardstick Salvini chose for himself. He deliberately hyped up this election as the people getting ready to send this government packing, and basically took over the Lega campaign (completely sidelining poor Borgonzoni, who at this point probably regrets it). He exuded confidence about winning it (probably based on the right's real track record of outperforming polls). When you set the expectations so high for yourself, you can't complain that what would otherwise have been a decent result is spun into a setback.

I assure you though, no one in Italy is saying that Salvini is done or anything like that.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on January 27, 2020, 03:36:13 PM
Salvini still dominates Italian politics for sure, but this is one of a few missteps recently.  Should they become a wider trend, then even given the general dreadfulness of the Italian left bets could be off.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 27, 2020, 03:43:21 PM
One thing that's true and should be noted is that Bonaccini seems to have benefited from a significant personal vote. The lists that supported him only got about 48% of the vote, but he got almost 52%. Some of it is tactical voting by M5Sers (the M5S candidate got 1.5 points less than the M5S list) but many right-wingers also seem to have crossed over to support him. He has a solid record as ER President, with the region having one of the highest growth and lowest unemployment of the country. So in the end local factors probably mattered just as much as the anti-Salvini mobilization. It's kind of a John Bel Edwards situation where a party tried to nationalize the race to beat a popular incumbent and failed.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: rob in cal on January 27, 2020, 05:06:10 PM
  The expectations game reminds me of when the Republicans kept narrowly winning all those special elections for congressional seats in 2017 (Georgia, Montana, Kansas etc) but in each case by numbers that implied that they were in big trouble nationally. Looks pretty similar here.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: palandio on January 28, 2020, 04:18:40 AM
One thing that's true and should be noted is that Bonaccini seems to have benefited from a significant personal vote. The lists that supported him only got about 48% of the vote, but he got almost 52%. Some of it is tactical voting by M5Sers (the M5S candidate got 1.5 points less than the M5S list) but many right-wingers also seem to have crossed over to support him. He has a solid record as ER President, with the region having one of the highest growth and lowest unemployment of the country. So in the end local factors probably mattered just as much as the anti-Salvini mobilization. It's kind of a John Bel Edwards situation where a party tried to nationalize the race to beat a popular incumbent and failed.
I don't completely agree because I think that you missed an important detail: The total number of governor votes was much higher than the total number of list votes.

Total votes (lists): 2.162.216
Total votes (governor): 2.325.497 (+163.281)

Total votes (left-wing lists): 1.040.482
Total votes (Bonaccini): 1.195.742 (+155.260)

Total votes (right-wing lists): 981.787
Total votes (Borgonzini): 1.014.672 (+32.885)

Total votes (M5S list): 102.595
Total votes (Benini): 80.823 (-21.772)

You can see that the number of governor votes was significantly higher than the number of list votes, a phenomenon that is widely seen in Italian regional and local elections and often forgotten. Borgonzoni actually got 33k votes more than her supporting lists. Bonaccini on the other hand got 155k more. I think that many of these 155k voters are not convinced left-wingers, but voted against the right (and thought that Bonaccini was an ok guy). I doubt that many of them would vote for a right-wing list. On the other hand mobilization for Borgonzoni and the right was much more via the national Lega brand. If you are a Lega supporter and want to through out the left it does not make sense to vote for Bonaccini.
Hence I do not think that there was any significant right-wing-Bonaccini crossover vote


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 28, 2020, 06:15:08 PM
Yes, I'm aware that many people only vote for the presidency ballot and not for the lists. And sure, a significant part of it is low-propensity left-leaning voters bothering to cross out Bonaccini's name but not a list logo, but I don't think it's crazy to suggest that a few of them are people who are nationally right-wing but thought Bonaccini was the better candidate locally. It makes perfect sense given everything else we know about how this campaign went down (Borgonzoni being such a weak candidate that Salvini basically locked her away to run her campaign himself). If we want to measure the "real" national political mood in Emilia, the truth is probably somewhere in between the list and personal vote.


Anyway, here's some hard data to draw your own conclusion from. Election results of the 2018 parliamentary, 2019 European, and 2020 regional elections in both regions (president and list for ER; in Calabria there's only one vote). I included LeU on the "left" side but not the more extreme far-left lists.

()

Left-right swing from the 2018 elections:
- ER (president) +5.6
- ER (list) +0.5
- Calabria -12.9

Left-right swing from the 2019 elections:
- ER (president) +12.5
- ER (list) +7.4
- Calabria -2.8

The Calabria results are scary, but they can probably be safely dismissed given the low turnout and the peculiarity of local issues. Calabria has kicked out every incumbent government since the Second Republic and seems to largely just be disaffected from politics in general (see also M5S's results in 2018). The ER numbers are more meaningful, although again the question is which numbers do you use. Either way, there's definitely been an upswing from the EU elections, but it's unclear whether there has been one from the 2018 election (where, as a reminder, the right was 11 points ahead of the left).


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: Estrella on January 28, 2020, 07:05:04 PM
Have there been any exit polls (or just ordinary polls) with crosstabs by age/occupation/sex since 2018? I'm asking because it'd be interesting to know how the M5S voters defected to left/right in different demographics. With no data, I'd guess that it would make sense if they went left among the young, women and middle-ish class and right with older people, men and working class.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: palandio on January 29, 2020, 08:51:01 AM
Yes, I'm aware that many people only vote for the presidency ballot and not for the lists. And sure, a significant part of it is low-propensity left-leaning voters bothering to cross out Bonaccini's name but not a list logo, but I don't think it's crazy to suggest that a few of them are people who are nationally right-wing but thought Bonaccini was the better candidate locally. It makes perfect sense given everything else we know about how this campaign went down (Borgonzoni being such a weak candidate that Salvini basically locked her away to run her campaign himself). If we want to measure the "real" national political mood in Emilia, the truth is probably somewhere in between the list and personal vote.
It's not crazy to suggest this, in fact I like that you are questioning some popular beliefs. But in this case a quantitative analysis of the election data doesn't seem to back it up. And on top keep in mind that Borgonzoni outperformed the right-wing lists by 33k votes. For every voter that split his ticket between a right-wing list and Bonaccini there must be an additional voter who voted for weak candidate Borgonzoni without voting for a right-wing list.

A quantitative analysis on the provincial level shows that the Bonaccini surplus over the left-wing lists (ER overall: 3.3%) correlates positively with the left-wing results themselves. (The exception being traditionally left-wing Reggio Emilia province where the surplus was relatively low.) In the provincial capitals (which nowadays mostly lean to the left of their provinces) the Bonaccini surplus was higher than in the rest of the respective provinces.
Another parameter that can be used is the turnout difference from the 2019 EU elections to the 2020 ER regional elections. Overall turnout went from 67.3% to 67.7%. But there were significant local differences. Rise in turnout was correlated to left-wing strength and a Bonaccini surplus. (Turnout in Reggio Emilia province fell from 69.2% to 68.0% which might explain the weak Bonaccini surplus.)
The most extreme example in all of this is Bologna city, a left-wing stronghold where turnout went from 63.3% to 69.8% and where the Bonaccini surplus was 4.3%.

Measuring the "real" national mood is a different and very complex question.
Quote
Anyway, here's some hard data to draw your own conclusion from. Election results of the 2018 parliamentary, 2019 European, and 2020 regional elections in both regions (president and list for ER; in Calabria there's only one vote). I included LeU on the "left" side but not the more extreme far-left lists.

[...]

Left-right swing from the 2018 elections:
- ER (president) +5.6
- ER (list) +0.5
- Calabria -12.9

Left-right swing from the 2019 elections:
- ER (president) +12.5
- ER (list) +7.4
- Calabria -2.8

The Calabria results are scary, but they can probably be safely dismissed given the low turnout and the peculiarity of local issues. Calabria has kicked out every incumbent government since the Second Republic and seems to largely just be disaffected from politics in general (see also M5S's results in 2018). The ER numbers are more meaningful, although again the question is which numbers do you use. Either way, there's definitely been an upswing from the EU elections, but it's unclear whether there has been one from the 2018 election (where, as a reminder, the right was 11 points ahead of the left).
It's difficult to talk about upswing or not compared to the 2018 election because of the complete Five Stars meltdown. The (simplified) common theory is that the right-leaning part of the former Five Stars voters mostly voted Lega already in the 2019 EU elections and that at least in ER the remaining left-leaning part mostly voted for the left. The problem for the left being that even if they can build the same voter coalition that voted for Bonaccini on the national level, it probably won't be enough, as long as the right-wing coalition sits at a comfortable >50%.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 29, 2020, 02:12:17 PM
Interesting statistics. That's good to know.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: Beagle on February 27, 2020, 07:02:05 AM
What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: Estrella on February 27, 2020, 08:00:54 AM
What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections, 01/26/2020 (Emilia-Romagna, Calabria)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on February 27, 2020, 09:13:07 AM
What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI

Well that's all totally clear :)


Title: Re: Italian Constitutional Referendum, 03/29/2020
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 27, 2020, 11:43:14 PM
Updated the title with the next major electoral event. The referendum to approve the M5S' much-desired constitutional reform to reduce the number of MPs will be held at the end of next month. People expect it to pass easily (voters hate politicians, etc.) but with the government (and especially M5S) so unpopular, you never know.

I won't be participating in this thread much until then, though, so keep having fun without me. ;)


Title: Re: Italian Constitutional Referendum, 03/29/2020
Post by: rob in cal on February 28, 2020, 12:45:42 PM
  Wasn't Salvini talking about some kind of referendum campaign? Any developments on that?


Title: Re: Italian Constitutional Referendum, 03/29/2020
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 29, 2020, 02:15:16 AM
Updated the title with the next major electoral event. The referendum to approve the M5S' much-desired constitutional reform to reduce the number of MPs will be held at the end of next month. People expect it to pass easily (voters hate politicians, etc.) but with the government (and especially M5S) so unpopular, you never know.

I won't be participating in this thread much until then, though, so keep having fun without me. ;)
What a great time to hold a vote
They deserved to loose


Title: Re: Italian Constitutional Referendum, 03/29/2020
Post by: FrancoAgo on March 05, 2020, 12:03:51 PM
The referendum is postponed


Title: Re: Italian Constitutional Referendum, 03/29/2020
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 05, 2020, 12:18:54 PM

Corona?


Title: Re: Italian Constitutional Referendum, 03/29/2020
Post by: FrancoAgo on March 05, 2020, 01:07:52 PM

Yes


Title: Re: Italian Constitutional Referendum, 03/29/2020
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 05, 2020, 09:20:56 PM

Oh, great.


Title: Re: Italian Constitutional Referendum, 03/29/2020
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 07, 2020, 10:54:00 AM
Zingaretti has tested positive.


Title: Re: Italian Constitutional Referendum, 03/29/2020
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 08, 2020, 11:30:40 PM
Lombardy and a bunch of nearby provinces (https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/03/07/news/coronavirus_lombardia_e_le_undici_province_chiuse-250583810/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I250669477-C8-P3-S1.8-T1) now under near-complete lockdown.

Well that escalated quickly.


Title: Re: Italian Constitutional Referendum, 03/29/2020
Post by: FrancoAgo on March 09, 2020, 06:23:49 PM
under 30%

in all Italy not needed movement are illegal 


Title: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: CORONAVIRUS PANIC
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 09, 2020, 11:47:30 PM
Yeah, the Italian government seems to have decided to go all in. Interestingly, both the majority and the opposition seems to be in agreement for once.

I'm not sure what to think of it. I'm not on the ground obviously so I can't judge the situation, but if I was on the ground and in an area currently unaffected by the virus, I'd be pretty mad to be completely grounded for weeks over this. It might or might not be effective at stopping the virus from spreading (which, even then, would only delay it), but the human and economic consequences will be far from pleasant (and we're talking about a country that has had no meaningful growth in a decade).

There should be a happy medium between this and the utter carelessness and incompetence of the T***p administration.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: CORONAVIRUS PANIC
Post by: FrancoAgo on March 13, 2020, 12:32:03 PM
Postponed also the municipal elections of the spring '20

EDIT: the government has denied this news


p.s. today Italy  has surpassed PRC in the covid siks


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: CORONAVIRUS PANIC
Post by: Lechasseur on March 19, 2020, 08:04:30 PM
Silvio Berlusconi left his 34 year old girlfriend to start dating a 30 year old


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: CORONAVIRUS PANIC
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on March 19, 2020, 10:27:06 PM
Silvio Berlusconi left his 34 year old girlfriend to start dating a 30 year old

Under quarantine?!


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: CORONAVIRUS PANIC
Post by: Lechasseur on March 20, 2020, 07:47:14 AM
Silvio Berlusconi left his 34 year old girlfriend to start dating a 30 year old

Under quarantine?!

I saw it in a French news article last night dating from March 5th


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: CORONAVIRUS PANIC
Post by: Velasco on March 20, 2020, 04:58:00 PM
I heard Berlusconi was one of the first fleeing Lombardy before the lockdown. Now he is living in Nice, where he owns a palace. I'm thinking of rats and sinking ships


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: CORONAVIRUS PANIC
Post by: seb_pard on March 20, 2020, 06:01:58 PM


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: CORONAVIRUS PANIC
Post by: brucejoel99 on March 20, 2020, 06:16:13 PM
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1241137340309024771

Suck it, Salvini.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: CORONAVIRUS PANIC
Post by: parochial boy on March 21, 2020, 09:38:08 AM
Dunno, think I'd prefer a world where the government was still unpopular and the country wasn't having to endure this tragedy.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: CORONAVIRUS PANIC
Post by: CumbrianLefty on March 21, 2020, 10:00:07 AM
Well, that's true.

I think plus 27 is the biggest pro-government swing I've seen in any "crisis" poll thus far, though.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: CORONAVIRUS PANIC
Post by: rob in cal on March 21, 2020, 11:55:11 AM
 The poll is intresting, but how much of that means specific support for pro government parties, and how much of that is just personal support for Conte.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: CORONAVIRUS PANIC
Post by: bigic on March 21, 2020, 01:55:19 PM
The poll is intresting, but how much of that means specific support for pro government parties, and how much of that is just personal support for Conte.
I think M5S is recovering a bit? Certainly the swing towards the pro-government parties isn't very big according to the recent polls.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: CORONAVIRUS PANIC
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 21, 2020, 03:21:24 PM
I wonder if Conte will try and start his own personal party like Monti did?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: CORONAVIRUS PANIC
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 21, 2020, 04:01:11 PM
Nobody in Italy is thinking about electoral politics at the moment (well, I'm sure the politicians are, but they're making an effort to hide it at least). The numbers we're seeing at the moment are meaningless and will almost certainly change as the situation does. And of course, there's no way to hold any elections at the moment. So all political talk at the moment is baseless speculation.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: CORONAVIRUS PANIC
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 22, 2020, 07:35:24 AM
Nobody in Italy is thinking about electoral politics at the moment (well, I'm sure the politicians are, but they're making an effort to hide it at least).

As opposed to Poland, where the government appears hell-bent on going forward with the presidential election in May, which kind of makes sense from the political standpoint. If delayed, the people would fully experienced the economic downturn in meantime and become more likely to punish the ruling party in the polls. Not to mention PiS has easier time in mobilizing its' core electorate the pandemic notwithstanding.

Sorry for being off-topic, just found the contrast interesting.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: CORONAVIRUS PANIC
Post by: Harlow on March 23, 2020, 11:08:38 PM
Can someone give me a brief summary on the fundamental differences between a Lega voter and a Fratelli d'Italia voter? Have people moved to FdI mainly because of Lega's attempted dissolution move last summer? Or is their new support coming from right-wing M5S supporters angry at M5S forming government with the Democrats? Some combination of both?

Edit: This seems to have been answered on the previous pages. √


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: CORONAVIRUS PANIC
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 06, 2020, 06:45:24 PM
The regional and local elections will probably be postponed to October, fwiw.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Flatten the F**king Curve
Post by: MRCVzla on August 22, 2020, 06:30:48 AM
Well, to help update this post, next month, on September 20 and 21, will be held the pending regional and local (administrative) elections, plus the Constitutional Referendum about cutting parliamentarians.

Seven regions are called to the polls; Veneto, Liguria, Tuscany, Marche, Campania, Puglia, plus an early election in the Aosta Valley, of the first six regions, 4 are hold of the center-left and 2 are controlled by the center-right. Veneto and Liguria are safe for the Cdx, Tuscany would remain a safe stronghold for the Csx, Campania is likely hold for the Csx, while the fiercest battles would be in Marche and Puglia (currently ruled by the Csx). Regarding electoral alliances, Renzi's party (IV) will run separate candidates against the center-left in Veneto, Liguria and Puglia, while also in Liguria, will be repeated the alliance experiment between PD (center-left) and the M5S with a consensus civic candidate (despite as it turned out last time in Umbria).

Regarding the issue of cutting parliamentarians, a recent poll came out these days giving the advantage to the YES by 72-28, although the validity will depend on the participation and how close the question will be through the days, most of the major parties support the YES despite of notable internal fractions on the subject, while several of these individuals and parliamentarians of those parties along with minor parties of various ideologies or civil associations will campaign in favor of the NO. The reform seeks to reduce the composition of Parliament, from 630 to 400 seats in the "Chamber" and from 315 to 200 elected seats in the Senate, plus a limit of 5 appointed senators for life.

Also, two by-elections for the Senate will also be held in a Veneto district as well as another in Sardinia, as the senators who were elected in 2018 have passed away in recent months, an FDI senator in the Villafranca di Verona district, as well as a Senator of the M5S in the district of Sassari, in the latter the "pentastellatos" will run with a common candidate together with the center-left.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Flatten the F**king Curve
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 22, 2020, 07:06:10 AM
For what it's worth yesterday I was able to speak to a member of the Chamber of Deputies of Lega.
He said that the M5S members of Parliament are the first who privately would like the Constitutional Referendum to fail. (He is against the cut to the number of members of Parliament)



My take on the regions is this:
Veneto - Absolutely Titanium Centre-right
Liguria - Almost Safe Centre-right
Marche - Tossup
Puglia - Tossup
Toscana - Likely Centre-left
Campania - Likely Centre-left
Aosta Valley - ??

My take on the by-elections:
Villafrance di Verona - Absolutely Titanium Centre-right
Sassari - Tossup? Sardinia has been very weird as of lately



P. S. This is my first post here. I don't know how much I will interact with this thread because I kind of have an instinctive distrust for foreigners discussing Italian politics. To be fair I also have an instinctive distrust for Italians discussing Italian politics. I don't know. The less people mention Salvini or Conte or whomever, the better.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Flatten the F**king Curve
Post by: El Betico on September 05, 2020, 08:50:47 AM
For what it's worth yesterday I was able to speak to a member of the Chamber of Deputies of Lega.
He said that the M5S members of Parliament are the first who privately would like the Constitutional Referendum to fail. (He is against the cut to the number of members of Parliament)



My take on the regions is this:
Veneto - Absolutely Titanium Centre-right
Liguria - Almost Safe Centre-right
Marche - Tossup
Puglia - Tossup
Toscana - Likely Centre-left
Campania - Likely Centre-left
Aosta Valley - ??

My take on the by-elections:
Villafrance di Verona - Absolutely Titanium Centre-right
Sassari - Tossup? Sardinia has been very weird as of lately



P. S. This is my first post here. I don't know how much I will interact with this thread because I kind of have an instinctive distrust for foreigners discussing Italian politics. To be fair I also have an instinctive distrust for Italians discussing Italian politics. I don't know. The less people mention Salvini or Conte or whomever, the better.

If this can make you feel safer, I am half Italian on my mother's side and almost a native speaker...I saw the most recent polls, and it seems that Marche Region is instead likely centre-right and Tuscany a tossup with only a slight centre-left leaning tendency...are these polls really reliable? I found them on the governative poll-collecting site www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it....sort of rcp polls, only directly owned by the government, from what i see. For what is worth, I have Italian leftist friends worried about Tuscany...anyway,  the polls show that both Fitto and Ceccardi( Apulia and Tuscany centre-right candidates) are in the low 40s...so if many 5S voters decide to go for the left, like they did in Emilia Romagna, victory is all but assured. Don't know why at least in Marche centre-left and M5S aren't running together.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Flatten the F**king Curve
Post by: FrancoAgo on September 05, 2020, 09:06:58 AM
It's easy to end 6-1 for the rights (Campania to the PD coalition)
3-3 will be a win for the PD coalition (with Aosta to local parties)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Flatten the F**king Curve
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 05, 2020, 09:18:07 AM

If this can make you feel safer, I am half Italian on my mother's side and almost a native speaker...I saw the most recent polls, and it seems that Marche Region is instead likely centre-right and Tuscany a tossup with only a slight centre-left leaning tendency...are these polls really reliable? I found them on the governative poll-collecting site www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it....sort of rcp polls, only directly owned by the government, from what i see. For what is worth, I have Italian leftist friends worried about Tuscany...anyway,  the polls show that both Fitto and Ceccardi( Apulia and Tuscany centre-right candidates) are in the low 40s...so if many 5S voters decide to go for the left, like they did in Emilia Romagna, victory is all but assured. Don't know why at least in Marche centre-left and M5S aren't running together.

I go to that site frequently but I haven't in days so I had not seen those polls.
Italian regional polls are a bit crappy anyways, but I'll take what we have.

Leftists worried about Tuscany per se should chill out. Yes, Tuscany has always been governed by the left, but that to me is only relatively meaningful. I don't see much difference between, say, losing Apulia but keeping Tuscany, and vice versa. It's not like rightists would cry over themselves if the centre-left won in Lombardy in 2023.

For the M5S thing, Tuscany should be the kind of region where most end up voting centre-left. Apulia, which like all the South has a higher base for them, I don't think so.

They are not always running together because broadly speaking large segments of both parties actually hate the other party's guts.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.




Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Flatten the F**king Curve
Post by: El Betico on September 05, 2020, 09:39:03 AM
Campania being safer for the left than Tuscany is something...weird. But I think Vincenzo De Luca personality is what makes the difference...yes, I've seen some of his Covid-related youtube shows.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Flatten the F**king Curve
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 05, 2020, 11:02:52 AM
Campania being safer for the left than Tuscany is something...weird. But I think Vincenzo De Luca personality is what makes the difference...yes, I've seen some of his Covid-related youtube shows.

I just love Vincenzo De Luca. When he speaks he produces gold nuggets constantly. I am glad Campanians seem to think like me.
In Tuscany Susanna Ceccardi is showing to be a better candidate than Lucia Borgonzoni, who was notoriously absent on the campaign trail and seemed like a Salvini sideshow.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Flatten the F**king Curve
Post by: MRCVzla on September 05, 2020, 11:52:38 PM
Tuscany has a particularity compared to the rest of the Italian regions, since it provides the possibility of a second round (as happens in local elections) if the candidate/coalition leading the first round is below 50% and the candidate/coalition in 2nd place exceeds 40% of the votes, whoever wins the runoff, gets the Regional Presidency and the majority award for the Regional Council.

According to the polls, this seems to be the case with MEP Ceccardi (cdx) overcoming that threshold and posing a certain threat to the dominance that the center-left has historically had in the region (currently represented by incumbent Regional Council president Giani). Although exists the "wild card" from where the M5S votes would go, that scenario could prevent Salvini's candidate from winning.

Apulia would remain as the other region tossup with the dispute between MEP Fitto (cdx) and the incumbent governor Emiliano (csx), there is a disjoint vote in that region and many M5S voters would tip the balance in favor of Emiliano (very close to the grillinos).

While it seems that Marche is going to turn to the center right with MP Acquaroli.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Flatten the F**king Curve
Post by: SPQR on September 12, 2020, 03:55:02 PM
Well well well, lots to say as we are a week away from the elections.

Campania being safer for the left than Tuscany is something...weird. But I think Vincenzo De Luca personality is what makes the difference...yes, I've seen some of his Covid-related youtube shows.

I just love Vincenzo De Luca. When he speaks he produces gold nuggets constantly. I am glad Campanians seem to think like me.
In Tuscany Susanna Ceccardi is showing to be a better candidate than Lucia Borgonzoni, who was notoriously absent on the campaign trail and seemed like a Salvini sideshow.

Lega has learned from Emilia Romagna - Ceccardi is just as much of a not-quite-cunning extremis as Borgonzoni, but they're hiding it better. Also, Salvini not going around ringing at the door of presumed drug dealers is helping.

Overall, my current predictions are the following:

Veneto - Zaia has already won. The only question is whether Zaia's civic list will get more votes than Lega - Salvini is very much afraid of that. "Fun" fact: center-left candidate and Padua mayor, Lorenzoni, got Covid last week, and is unable to campaign - he collapsed on a live stream only a few days ago.

Liguria - it was supposed to be a tight race, but Toti (center-right) will win easily. This is the only region where PD and M5S field a common candidate, but they only did so at the last second and unconvincingly., and so even though Toti is far from being unbeatable, this is safe center-right.

Marche - "the Italian Ohio", as some newspapers said. But they also said it about Umbria, and it ended up being a landslide for the right. Same here, probably - the right is fielding an Fdi and pretty far-right candidate, but PD and M5S are fielding different candidates, and in a region where M5S has always been pretty strong they simply stand no chance divided.

Campania - solid PD. It's De Luca (PD) vs Caldoro (right) for the third time in a row, they each won once. De Luca has gained even further popularity during the Covid lockdown, and while a few months ago Zingaretti didn't want him as a candidate in order to ally with M5S, now he's thanking God that De Luca exists and will win at least one region for PD.

Puglia - tilt right. Fitto (former governor in the 2000's) seems to have gained traction, while incumbent Emiliano, a populist who has always tried to court M5S and has tried every trick up his sleeve (including paying newly married couples in Puglia a few thousand euros last month), will pay the fact that both M5S and Italia Viva will run separately. Quite ironic that Emiliano might lose because of both M5S, which he has always loved, and Renzi, who he has always loathed.

Tuscany - tilt PD. The peculiar electoral law has already been mentioned, Ceccardi (Lega) too. PD are fielding a weak candidate, Giani, whose only merit is not being the incumbent governor (Rossi, who broke with PD a few years ago). Tuscany has being trending right for years, 6 of the 10 provincial capitals have center-right mayors, but my gut feeling is that the center-left will win by a razor--tight margin.

Val d'Aosta - honestly, no clue. There is no polling whatsoever.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Flatten the F**king Curve
Post by: SPQR on September 12, 2020, 04:03:00 PM
What hasn't been mentioned is the constitutional referendum on the reduction of members of the House of deputies (from 630 to 400) and the Senate (from 315 to 200).

This is one of the oldest battles of the M5S - consistently with their claim that politicians are crooks who only steal public money from the people.
M5S and Lega pushed it through quite quickly during their year in government, but it was M5S and PD that eventually pushed it through the finish line, shortly after the start of the Conte II government (almost all of the MPs voted in favour, it must be noted).
PD voted against it 3 times, but then had to accept it as a condition for forming a government with M5S. In exchange, there should have been a new electoral law (proportional), and changes to the rules of both the House and the Senate (as it is, there would be lots of problems in them functioning correctly).
Neither has happened, but nonetheless Zingaretti has decided that the official position of PD should be in favour of the reform, and he got it ratified on monday. This is widely seen as a move to push a strategic alliance with M5S, and many PD members are quite pissed, since PD's position has never been that of reducing MPs without reforming other parts of the Constitution.

Polls were showing a landslide in favour of the reform (90-10 or so), but in the last few weeks it's getting tighter (70-30), as more and more prominent figures (including former PM Prodi and the young movement of the Sardines) are declaring their opposition to it.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Flatten the F**king Curve
Post by: Umengus on September 12, 2020, 04:19:02 PM
What hasn't been mentioned is the constitutional referendum on the reduction of members of the House of deputies (from 630 to 400) and the Senate (from 315 to 200).

This is one of the oldest battles of the M5S - consistently with their claim that politicians are crooks who only steal public money from the people.
M5S and Lega pushed it through quite quickly during their year in government, but it was M5S and PD that eventually pushed it through the finish line, shortly after the start of the Conte II government (almost all of the MPs voted in favour, it must be noted).
PD voted against it 3 times, but then had to accept it as a condition for forming a government with M5S. In exchange, there should have been a new electoral law (proportional), and changes to the rules of both the House and the Senate (as it is, there would be lots of problems in them functioning correctly).
Neither has happened, but nonetheless Zingaretti has decided that the official position of PD should be in favour of the reform, and he got it ratified on monday. This is widely seen as a move to push a strategic alliance with M5S, and many PD members are quite pissed, since PD's position has never been that of reducing MPs without reforming other parts of the Constitution.

Polls were showing a landslide in favour of the reform (90-10 or so), but in the last few weeks it's getting tighter (70-30), as more and more prominent figures (including former PM Prodi and the young movement of the Sardines) are declaring their opposition to it.

I think that some regionals polls have shown the no winning...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Flatten the F**king Curve
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 12, 2020, 04:23:44 PM
Lega has learned from Emilia Romagna - Ceccardi is just as much of a not-quite-cunning extremis as Borgonzoni, but they're hiding it better. Also, Salvini not going around ringing at the door of presumed drug dealers is helping.

Overall, my current predictions are the following:

Veneto - Zaia has already won. The only question is whether Zaia's civic list will get more votes than Lega - Salvini is very much afraid of that. "Fun" fact: center-left candidate and Padua mayor, Lorenzoni, got Covid last week, and is unable to campaign - he collapsed on a live stream only a few days ago.

Liguria - it was supposed to be a tight race, but Toti (center-right) will win easily. This is the only region where PD and M5S field a common candidate, but they only did so at the last second and unconvincingly., and so even though Toti is far from being unbeatable, this is safe center-right.

Marche - "the Italian Ohio", as some newspapers said. But they also said it about Umbria, and it ended up being a landslide for the right. Same here, probably - the right is fielding an Fdi and pretty far-right candidate, but PD and M5S are fielding different candidates, and in a region where M5S has always been pretty strong they simply stand no chance divided.

Campania - solid PD. It's De Luca (PD) vs Caldoro (right) for the third time in a row, they each won once. De Luca has gained even further popularity during the Covid lockdown, and while a few months ago Zingaretti didn't want him as a candidate in order to ally with M5S, now he's thanking God that De Luca exists and will win at least one region for PD.

Puglia - tilt right. Fitto (former governor in the 2000's) seems to have gained traction, while incumbent Emiliano, a populist who has always tried to court M5S and has tried every trick up his sleeve (including paying newly married couples in Puglia a few thousand euros last month), will pay the fact that both M5S and Italia Viva will run separately. Quite ironic that Emiliano might lose because of both M5S, which he has always loved, and Renzi, who he has always loathed.

Tuscany - tilt PD. The peculiar electoral law has already been mentioned, Ceccardi (Lega) too. PD are fielding a weak candidate, Giani, whose only merit is not being the incumbent governor (Rossi, who broke with PD a few years ago). Tuscany has being trending right for years, 6 of the 10 provincial capitals have center-right mayors, but my gut feeling is that the center-left will win by a razor--tight margin.

Val d'Aosta - honestly, no clue. There is no polling whatsoever.

Zaia will win a landslide. Also, I am sure that many voters of Zaia's civic list are normally left-leaning or M5S-leaning voters. Which I suppose is part of what frightens Salvini. The other part is that Zaia is the next-in-line to take his leader seat.

I would like Toti to lose but very likely the polls are not off by that much. I certainly won't vote for him.

I don't know what "Italian Ohio" is supposed to mean, but it was clear from 2018 that Umbria is not a red region anymore, and Marche has actually never been one.

My boy De Luca will win. I wish I were Campanian just to vote for him.

Puglia is weird. The polls are very tight. I don't know much about Emiliano to be honest, I do not exactly follow the news much.

Tuscany has not been trending right, come on. The mayor thing is the product of self-sorting, in 2019 PD took more votes than Lega in Tuscany despite winning only 3 out of 10 provinces.
However given the national advantage for the centre-right currently and the fact that Salvini is not doing stupid stunts like the one in Bologna, there is quite a bit of help for the centre-right, so I agree with your gut feeling.

I have noticed a trend in running former governors as candidates. It does not sound very smart considering they were already beaten once.

What hasn't been mentioned is the constitutional referendum on the reduction of members of the House of deputies (from 630 to 400) and the Senate (from 315 to 200).

This is one of the oldest battles of the M5S - consistently with their claim that politicians are crooks who only steal public money from the people.
M5S and Lega pushed it through quite quickly during their year in government, but it was M5S and PD that eventually pushed it through the finish line, shortly after the start of the Conte II government (almost all of the MPs voted in favour, it must be noted).
PD voted against it 3 times, but then had to accept it as a condition for forming a government with M5S. In exchange, there should have been a new electoral law (proportional), and changes to the rules of both the House and the Senate (as it is, there would be lots of problems in them functioning correctly).
Neither has happened, but nonetheless Zingaretti has decided that the official position of PD should be in favour of the reform, and he got it ratified on monday. This is widely seen as a move to push a strategic alliance with M5S, and many PD members are quite pissed, since PD's position has never been that of reducing MPs without reforming other parts of the Constitution.

Polls were showing a landslide in favour of the reform (90-10 or so), but in the last few weeks it's getting tighter (70-30), as more and more prominent figures (including former PM Prodi and the young movement of the Sardines) are declaring their opposition to it.

I mentioned the referendum in my first post!

My gut feeling is that lots and lots of PD voters (even a majority) will vote No anyway. I will probably vote PD and No, for starters.
My father is convinced that Giorgetti or someone will tell Lega voters to vote No but I have no idea.
Probably Yes will pass anyway.

My European MP Brando Benifei voted against the ratification of Yes as the official PD position apparently. It feels good.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Flatten the F**king Curve
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 12, 2020, 05:48:38 PM
It'd be a huge kick in the teeth to lose another red region (although I'm actually not as emotionally attached to Tuscany as I am to Umbria), but I'm really happy that De Luca will probably survive. The international left needs a stable of entertaining, transgressive bomb-throwers just as much as the international right does!


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Flatten the F**king Curve
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 12, 2020, 06:08:52 PM
It'd be a huge kick in the teeth to lose another red region (although I'm actually not as emotionally attached to Tuscany as I am to Umbria), but I'm really happy that De Luca will probably survive. The international left needs a stable of entertaining, transgressive bomb-throwers just as much as the international right does!

Are you emotionally attached to Umbria because of St. Francis of Assisi?

By the way, Umbria (sadly for you) is gone as a red region. Tuscany is not - independently of who wins next week.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Flatten the F**king Curve
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 12, 2020, 08:32:43 PM
It'd be a huge kick in the teeth to lose another red region (although I'm actually not as emotionally attached to Tuscany as I am to Umbria), but I'm really happy that De Luca will probably survive. The international left needs a stable of entertaining, transgressive bomb-throwers just as much as the international right does!

Are you emotionally attached to Umbria because of St. Francis of Assisi?

And because I've been there and had a wonderful time, whereas I don't have any personal connection or attachment to Tuscany (yet). But, yes, Umbria the cattocomunista land of saints and Peppones (Pepponi?) is part of it too.

Quote
By the way, Umbria (sadly for you) is gone as a red region. Tuscany is not - independently of who wins next week.

I know, I saw your above post. I'm still grieving places like Northern New York being gone for the Democrats and most of far northern Honshu being gone for the Japanese center-left, so I'll probably be salty about Umbria for a while as well.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Flatten the F**king Curve
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 13, 2020, 01:11:00 AM
It'd be a huge kick in the teeth to lose another red region (although I'm actually not as emotionally attached to Tuscany as I am to Umbria), but I'm really happy that De Luca will probably survive. The international left needs a stable of entertaining, transgressive bomb-throwers just as much as the international right does!

Are you emotionally attached to Umbria because of St. Francis of Assisi?

And because I've been there and had a wonderful time, whereas I don't have any personal connection or attachment to Tuscany (yet). But, yes, Umbria the cattocomunista land of saints and Peppones (Pepponi?) is part of it too.

Quote
By the way, Umbria (sadly for you) is gone as a red region. Tuscany is not - independently of who wins next week.

I know, I saw your above post. I'm still grieving places like Northern New York being gone for the Democrats and most of far northern Honshu being gone for the Japanese center-left, so I'll probably be salty about Umbria for a while as well.

Cattocomunisti = <3
However Don Camillo and Peppone was set in Emilia-Romagna, not Umbria.
Funnily I have been to Umbria only once in my life - I was five years old and I remember zero.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Flatten the F**king Curve
Post by: El Betico on September 15, 2020, 04:48:33 PM
Umbria is not "Italian Ohio", is Italian West Virginia, if any.

That said, I am wondering if the most recent crime news, specifically anti-immigrant violence near Rome and anti-LGBT near Naples, are going to play a role in the campaign.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Flatten the F**king Curve
Post by: Edu on September 15, 2020, 05:14:17 PM
Last week I sent my glorious ballot by mail to vote NO on this ridiculous referendum that will lower the number of hilarious Italian parlamentarians. NOT ON MY WATCH!



Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 17, 2020, 03:11:22 PM
Well, I'm back! Couldn't miss such a momentous electoral cycle in my home country. Glad there's been a vibrant discussion going on without me, though! :) Battista, I don't think we've interacted much before, but it's great to have a fellow Italian (and one so knowledgeable) on board to discuss our country's perpetually messed up politics.

Anyway, like Edu, I recently sent out my No ballot, but I'm not getting my hopes up. There's going to be a hard core of right-wingers (and some disaffected anti-M5S lefties) who will bring now up into the 30s or even 40s, but I don't see it being enough to stem the tide of knee-jerk anti-political demagoguery. That's just how Italy rolls...

Seconded everything y'all said about De Luca. The man is a national treasure and I was incredibly relieved to find out he's likely to hang on. If any incumbent this cycle deserves reelection, it's him. I'm also hoping Emiliano can survive, I've always liked the guy. And obviously losing Tuscany would be a massive blow. Oh well. As usual with Italian elections, I'm not optimistic, but I don't want to be all doomer either.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 17, 2020, 04:34:09 PM
Well, I'm back! Couldn't miss such a momentous electoral cycle in my home country. Glad there's been a vibrant discussion going on without me, though! :) Battista, I don't think we've interacted much before, but it's great to have a fellow Italian (and one so knowledgeable) on board to discuss our country's perpetually messed up politics.

Anyway, like Edu, I recently sent out my No ballot, but I'm not getting my hopes up. There's going to be a hard core of right-wingers (and some disaffected anti-M5S lefties) who will bring now up into the 30s or even 40s, but I don't see it being enough to stem the tide of knee-jerk anti-political demagoguery. That's just how Italy rolls...

Seconded everything y'all said about De Luca. The man is a national treasure and I was incredibly relieved to find out he's likely to hang on. If any incumbent this cycle deserves reelection, it's him. I'm also hoping Emiliano can survive, I've always liked the guy. And obviously losing Tuscany would be a massive blow. Oh well. As usual with Italian elections, I'm not optimistic, but I don't want to be all doomer either.

Oooh the King is back!!!

Thank you, Antonio.

By the way, I am going to be a poll worker this year.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 17, 2020, 05:04:11 PM

Oh wow, do I really have such an illustrious reputation? I'm honored! I really haven't given this thread the attention it deserves, even before I left, but I'm hoping to change that in the next few days. It will be a useful distraction from what's happening here.


Quote
By the way, I am going to be a poll worker this year.

Oh, congrats!! That's a great commitment, especially right now.

What do you think of the election organization where you are? I've heard that in general things seem to be going fairly well, but it might feel differently on the ground.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 17, 2020, 05:11:59 PM

Oh wow, do I really have such an illustrious reputation? I'm honored! I really haven't given this thread the attention it deserves, even before I left, but I'm hoping to change that in the next few days. It will be a useful distraction from what's happening here.


Quote
By the way, I am going to be a poll worker this year.

Oh, congrats!! That's a great commitment, especially right now.

What do you think of the election organization where you are? I've heard that in general things seem to be going fairly well, but it might feel differently on the ground.


There has been a small section of houses in my city which have seen their polling place get moved but I haven't heard of anything else.

Doing all the repetitive poll work while having a mask on the face all day is probably going to be extremely frustrating, but I can't know in advance.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 17, 2020, 09:04:37 PM
Well, I'm back! Couldn't miss such a momentous electoral cycle in my home country. Glad there's been a vibrant discussion going on without me, though! :) Battista, I don't think we've interacted much before, but it's great to have a fellow Italian (and one so knowledgeable) on board to discuss our country's perpetually messed up politics.

Anyway, like Edu, I recently sent out my No ballot, but I'm not getting my hopes up. There's going to be a hard core of right-wingers (and some disaffected anti-M5S lefties) who will bring now up into the 30s or even 40s, but I don't see it being enough to stem the tide of knee-jerk anti-political demagoguery. That's just how Italy rolls...

Seconded everything y'all said about De Luca. The man is a national treasure and I was incredibly relieved to find out he's likely to hang on. If any incumbent this cycle deserves reelection, it's him. I'm also hoping Emiliano can survive, I've always liked the guy. And obviously losing Tuscany would be a massive blow. Oh well. As usual with Italian elections, I'm not optimistic, but I don't want to be all doomer either.

Oooh the King is back!!!

Thank you, Antonio.

By the way, I am going to be a poll worker this year.

I am always surprised when countries rely on volunteers to run their elections instead of doing like where where poll duties are essencially random and mandatory if you get picked (and if you don't go you get a very heavy and easy to enforce fine)

You do get somme advantages though, notably being paid 60€. If you are one of the few people who work on sundays, you still have to be paid by your employer. If you work the next day, you get the right to get the first 5 hours of your workday off the next day.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 18, 2020, 12:50:15 AM
I am always surprised when countries rely on volunteers to run their elections instead of doing like where where poll duties are essencially random and mandatory if you get picked (and if you don't go you get a very heavy and easy to enforce fine)

You do get somme advantages though, notably being paid 60€. If you are one of the few people who work on sundays, you still have to be paid by your employer. If you work the next day, you get the right to get the first 5 hours of your workday off the next day.

In Italy you can choose or not to enroll in "poll worker lists". Poll workers are picked from those lists. At least usually; I imagine that if a certain municipality has not enough people on the lists they just pick random citizens. I'll get paid somewhere around 130€ this year.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: jaichind on September 18, 2020, 04:13:18 PM
When does the polls close on Sunday and any link to results ?


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 18, 2020, 04:37:28 PM
When does the polls close on Sunday and any link to results ?

The polls close at 23 but they are also open on Monday from 7 to 15.

The results will be on a special page of the site of the Ministry of Interior that has not been opened yet.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Velasco on September 19, 2020, 03:48:16 AM
Well, I think that advocating seat reduction as the remedy for the diseases affecting the political system is a rather simplistic and demagogic approach. That sort of fetishism involving the reduction in size of parliaments or government institutions is not exclusive to the M5S. The seat reduction is not good or bad a priori, it's a matter of proportion. The question is: do 400 deputies and 200 senators ensure an addequate and proportional representation of all regions and territories? I tend to think the proposed size is too small. but I'd like to know the opinion of our Italian friends.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 19, 2020, 04:50:35 AM
Well, I think that advocating seat reduction as the remedy for the diseases affecting the political system is a rather simplistic and demagogic approach. That sort of fetishism involving the reduction in size of parliaments or government institutions is not exclusive to the M5S. The seat reduction is not good or bad a priori, it's a matter of proportion. The question is: do 400 deputies and 200 senators ensure an addequate and proportional representation of all regions and territories? I tend to think the proposed size is too small. but I'd like to know the opinion of our Italian friends.

I think somewhat differently. I am not sure that 400 Deputies and 200 Senators is good or bad a priori - although I lean towards the bad side.
However getting there through a seat reduction without anything else, which is not going to cure the ailments of the Italian political system and means first of all making us the people less represented, is idiotic.
Having a round number of members of Parliament is probably the best part of the reform and I'm not joking (well yes, it is also going to save mayyybe 100 million euros each year, but that's literally crumbs for a state like Italy).


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Lord Halifax on September 19, 2020, 05:04:37 AM
Well, I think that advocating seat reduction as the remedy for the diseases affecting the political system is a rather simplistic and demagogic approach. That sort of fetishism involving the reduction in size of parliaments or government institutions is not exclusive to the M5S. The seat reduction is not good or bad a priori, it's a matter of proportion. The question is: do 400 deputies and 200 senators ensure an addequate and proportional representation of all regions and territories? I tend to think the proposed size is too small. but I'd like to know the opinion of our Italian friends.

I think somewhat differently. I am not sure that 400 Deputies and 200 Senators is good or bad a priori - although I lean towards the bad side.
However getting there through a seat reduction without anything else, which is not going to cure the ailments of the Italian political system and means first of all making us the people less represented, is idiotic.
Having a round number of members of Parliament is probably the best part of the reform and I'm not joking (well yes, it is also going to save mayyybe 100 million euros each year, but that's literally crumbs for a state like Italy).

Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What's argument against unicameralism in Italy?


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 19, 2020, 05:07:51 AM
Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What's argument against unicameralism in Italy?

Why should we abolish the Senate? What's the argument for unicameralism in Italy?


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: parochial boy on September 19, 2020, 07:26:26 AM
Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What's argument against unicameralism in Italy?

Why should we abolish the Senate? What's the argument for unicameralism in Italy?

Presumably the usual arguments about gridlock, contradictory or confused mandates, tendancy to be dispropotionately conservative...

But also, in Italy, what purpose does the senate serve? In federal countries, the upper chamber generally represents the federal subjects against a lower chamber that represents the people; or else, it plays a clearly subordinate role like in France or the UK. But in Italy? what is the point of it? what is the use in having it as a separate institution to the chamber of deputies?


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 19, 2020, 08:04:27 AM
Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What's argument against unicameralism in Italy?

Why should we abolish the Senate? What's the argument for unicameralism in Italy?

Presumably the usual arguments about gridlock, contradictory or confused mandates, tendancy to be dispropotionately conservative...

But also, in Italy, what purpose does the senate serve? In federal countries, the upper chamber generally represents the federal subjects against a lower chamber that represents the people; or else, it plays a clearly subordinate role like in France or the UK. But in Italy? what is the point of it? what is the use in having it as a separate institution to the chamber of deputies?

Gridlock exists. The other things you mentioned do not apply at all to Italy.

The purpose is having a separate deliberation from a body with different composition (the minimum age is higher; Senators for life exist) and "checks and balances". Also it gives us an opportunity to vote in two different ways when there are parliamentary elections.

To be honest, while many people seem to think "what's the point of having two chambers if they have roughly equal standing and competences?", my position is "what's the point of having two chambers if the upper one is clearly subordinate and has little power?"


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Alcibiades on September 19, 2020, 08:28:41 AM
Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What's argument against unicameralism in Italy?

Why should we abolish the Senate? What's the argument for unicameralism in Italy?

Presumably the usual arguments about gridlock, contradictory or confused mandates, tendancy to be dispropotionately conservative...

But also, in Italy, what purpose does the senate serve? In federal countries, the upper chamber generally represents the federal subjects against a lower chamber that represents the people; or else, it plays a clearly subordinate role like in France or the UK. But in Italy? what is the point of it? what is the use in having it as a separate institution to the chamber of deputies?

Gridlock exists. The other things you mentioned do not apply at all to Italy.

The purpose is having a separate deliberation from a body with different composition (the minimum age is higher; Senators for life exist) and "checks and balances". Also it gives us an opportunity to vote in two different ways when there are parliamentary elections.

To be honest, while many people seem to think "what's the point of having two chambers if they have roughly equal standing and competences?", my position is "what's the point of having two chambers if the upper one is clearly subordinate and has little power?"

Well, the rationale for having two chambers is usually that they fulfil different roles or represent different bodies (usually one for the people and one for the states). Thus it follows that they must have different powers; even leaving aside the possibility for gridlock and the redundancy of having two chambers carry out the same procedures and functions, it is hardly fair that the one house, which will inevitably be less democratic (usually the upper house), should have equal power.

In Italy, though, notwithstanding the fairly minor differences you mentioned, both chambers broadly represent the people, which raises the question of why have two chambers fulfilling the same roles and representing the same bodies?


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 19, 2020, 08:56:08 AM

In Italy, though, notwithstanding the fairly minor differences you mentioned, both chambers broadly represent the people, which raises the question of why have two chambers fulfilling the same roles and representing the same bodies?

My rationale is there is more and different deliberation and we get two votes, as I stated.

I don't understand the purpose of most imperfect bicameralisms - especially in non-federal nations.

Anyway I am going to count, sign and stamp ballots for the next two hours. To the next update!


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 19, 2020, 09:48:38 AM
Well, I think that advocating seat reduction as the remedy for the diseases affecting the political system is a rather simplistic and demagogic approach. That sort of fetishism involving the reduction in size of parliaments or government institutions is not exclusive to the M5S

Just cutting the numbers of seats, without any other significant "anti-corruption" measures, looks like a way to increase public disaffection with things rather than the opposite.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 19, 2020, 11:38:34 AM

In Italy, though, notwithstanding the fairly minor differences you mentioned, both chambers broadly represent the people, which raises the question of why have two chambers fulfilling the same roles and representing the same bodies?

My rationale is there is more and different deliberation and we get two votes, as I stated.

I don't understand the purpose of most imperfect bicameralisms - especially in non-federal nations.

Anyway I am going to count, sign and stamp ballots for the next two hours. To the next update!

The technical benefits of getting more deliberation (fixing mistakes, making sure that a law is considered carefully) can be achieved without giving the Senate a veto power over legislation that potentially leads to a situation of total gridlock. Admittedly, this is less of a problem now than it used to be because the voting systems for the House and Senate are pretty closely aligned (it was the electoral discrepancy of the Porcellum that created such a complete mess in 2006-2008 and 2013-2018). Still, perfect bicameralism is generally a terrible idea. It's no coincidence that the countries that practice it tend to have the most dysfunctional politics.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 19, 2020, 11:41:48 AM
As for flatly cutting the number of MP, it is indeed a pointless, demagogic move. It is true that the "quality of representation" argument is a little dulled by the fact that we have a voting system that doesn't really allow voters to choose their MPs, but that's no excuse to make matters even worse.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 19, 2020, 11:44:56 AM
In Italy, though, notwithstanding the fairly minor differences you mentioned, both chambers broadly represent the people, which raises the question of why have two chambers fulfilling the same roles and representing the same bodies?

My rationale is there is more and different deliberation and we get two votes, as I stated.

I don't understand the purpose of most imperfect bicameralisms - especially in non-federal nations.

Anyway I am going to count, sign and stamp ballots for the next two hours. To the next update!

The technical benefits of getting more deliberation (fixing mistakes, making sure that a law is considered carefully) can be achieved without giving the Senate a veto power over legislation that potentially leads to a situation of total gridlock. Admittedly, this is less of a problem now than it used to be because the voting systems for the House and Senate are pretty closely aligned (it was the electoral discrepancy of the Porcellum that created such a complete mess in 2006-2008 and 2013-2018). Still, perfect bicameralism is generally a terrible idea. It's no coincidence that the countries that practice it tend to have the most dysfunctional politics.

"Porcellum" was absolutely nonsensical - and it showed in 2013 when the coalition that won took only 30% of the votes.
I like perfect bicameralism instead. I can concede that unicameralism may be better but having a half-assed Senate would make me puke.

In any case, stamping ballots is pretty cool for such a repetitive task. The hammering noise of the stamp feels good. We have almost finished for today I think now.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 19, 2020, 12:05:16 PM
"Porcellum" was absolutely nonsensical - and it showed in 2013 when the coalition that won took only 30% of the votes.

Yeah, no disagreement here. Although I despise the Rostellum almost as much - such a disingenuous system that pretends to be something it's not and ends up with the worst of both worlds. The Mattarellum was tolerable I guess, but tbh at this point I'd be willing to go back to the First Republic (not that it was perfect, far from it).


Quote
I like perfect bicameralism instead. I can concede that unicameralism may be better but having a half-assed Senate would make me puke.

I don't understand why you're so opposed to imperfect bicameralism. There are some forms of it that are pretty silly (like the British version, lmao) but I think in Germany for example it works pretty well. I certainly don't mind plain old unicameralism, though (as long as it's with a sufficiently proportional system).


Quote
In any case, stamping ballots is pretty cool for such a repetitive task. The hammering noise of the stamp feels good. We have almost finished for today I think now.

Congrats!


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: SPQR on September 19, 2020, 12:14:19 PM
Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What's argument against unicameralism in Italy?

Why should we abolish the Senate? What's the argument for unicameralism in Italy?

Not abolish, but rather change its functions.
A "regional Senate", such as the one of the 2016 constitutional reform.

Anyway, I fully agree that simply cutting the number of seats in the name of "politicians are bad let's get rid of them" is very bad, especially in the middle-long term.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 19, 2020, 12:19:42 PM
Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What's argument against unicameralism in Italy?

Why should we abolish the Senate? What's the argument for unicameralism in Italy?

Not abolish, but rather change its functions.
A "regional Senate", such as the one of the 2016 constitutional reform.

Anyway, I fully agree that simply cutting the number of seats in the name of "politicians are bad let's get rid of them" is very bad, especially in the middle-long term.

Oh no the regional Senate would be horrendous, I would have easily voted against the 2016 reform.
I don't think there has ever been any constitutional referendum where I would have voted Yes to be honest.
Most of my family is voting No this year except probably my maternal grandmother since she buys into "politicians are bad let's get rid of them" pretty heavily (although it's also possible she is voting No "to screw over M5S", I am not sure).

"Porcellum" was absolutely nonsensical - and it showed in 2013 when the coalition that won took only 30% of the votes.

Yeah, no disagreement here. Although I despise the Rostellum almost as much - such a disingenuous system that pretends to be something it's not and ends up with the worst of both worlds. The Mattarellum was tolerable I guess, but tbh at this point I'd be willing to go back to thw First Republic (not that it was perfect, far from it).

Yes, paradoxically (?) the First Party System had the best electoral law so far.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Lord Halifax on September 19, 2020, 03:41:38 PM
Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What's argument against unicameralism in Italy?

Why should we abolish the Senate? What's the argument for unicameralism in Italy?

Answering a question with a question is annoying so please avoid doing that.

Unicameralism is the default in a non-federal parliamentary system as it's cheaper and more efficient, so you need an argument for why bicameralism is necessary. In a federal system one of the chambers represents the states or provinces, but in a unitary state bicameralism essentially serves no valid purpose other than - ideally - making the legislative procedure more thorough, but that's often a bogus argument and it doesn't seem to apply to Italy.

So I'll repeat my question: "Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What is the argument against unicameralism in Italy?"


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 19, 2020, 04:03:10 PM
Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What's argument against unicameralism in Italy?

Why should we abolish the Senate? What's the argument for unicameralism in Italy?

Answering a question with a question is annoying so please avoid doing that.

Unicameralism is the default in a non-federal parliamentary system as it's cheaper and more efficient, so you need an argument for why bicameralism is necessary. In a federal system one of the chambers represents the states or provinces, but in a unitary state it essentially serves no valid purpose other than - ideally - making the legislative procedure more thorough, but that's often a bogus argument and it doesn't seem to apply to Italy.

So I'll repeat my question: "Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What is the argument against unicameralism in Italy?"

I am sorry if I was annoying, but the fact is I have never seen much discussion about unicameralism. I can't tell you what's the argument against unicameralism in Italy if no one is proposing unicameralism in Italy!

I think I have already explained what purpose I find in our system.
If you ask me why it was created this way in the first place, the honest answer is that I haven't read the works of the Constituent Assembly enough to know.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 20, 2020, 12:03:20 AM
Voting has now officially started in Italy!

To the next update.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 20, 2020, 06:03:19 AM

I have just finished my lunch break, during which I was able to go to Mass, vote at my precinct, and also actually have lunch.

To the next update.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Velasco on September 20, 2020, 12:20:42 PM
Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What's argument against unicameralism in Italy?

Why should we abolish the Senate? What's the argument for unicameralism in Italy?

Answering a question with a question is annoying so please avoid doing that.

Unicameralism is the default in a non-federal parliamentary system as it's cheaper and more efficient, so you need an argument for why bicameralism is necessary. In a federal system one of the chambers represents the states or provinces, but in a unitary state it essentially serves no valid purpose other than - ideally - making the legislative procedure more thorough, but that's often a bogus argument and it doesn't seem to apply to Italy.

So I'll repeat my question: "Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What is the argument against unicameralism in Italy?"

I am sorry if I was annoying, but the fact is I have never seen much discussion about unicameralism. I can't tell you what's the argument against unicameralism in Italy if no one is proposing unicameralism in Italy!

I think I have already explained what purpose I find in our system.
If you ask me why it was created this way in the first place, the honest answer is that I haven't read the works of the Constituent Assembly enough to know.

I might be wrong but I think Italian 'perfect' bicameralism was a compromise solution adopted by the constituents in 1948, since the right rejected the unicameral model proposed by the left and the latter rejected the idea of a corporative Senate. I know little about these complex matters, but I think the constitutional text left some room for the creation of a regional senate, although the idea was never developed as Italy hasn't gone too far along the road to a decentralized state.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 20, 2020, 04:03:27 PM

I have just finished my lunch break, during which I was able to go to Mass, vote at my precinct, and also actually have lunch.

To the next update.

Sunday voting has just finished.

Turnout in the precinct I am working at was about 33% today. I am disappointed. It is very low and is most likely not going to soar tomorrow. I haven't seen data about Italy as a whole, though.

To the next update.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Mike88 on September 20, 2020, 06:28:42 PM


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 20, 2020, 11:35:47 PM
Turnout is 56% in Valle d'Aosta, 51% in Veneto, 48% in Tuscany and Marche, 44% in Puglia and Liguria, 43% in Campania. Higher than the national average across the board (thankfully), but still far from stellar. We can hope that tomorrow will bring the total above 50% everywhere. Turnout in Tuscany at the last EU elections was over 60% - I doubt we will get there this time.

Trying to read signals into the provincial turnout patterns, there might be some encouraging patterns in Tuscany. Firenze has the highest turnout, and Siena is on par with the regional average. Pisa (normally a left-leaning province but also Ceccardi's home turf) is above average, but the traditional areas of right-wing strength (Massa-Carrara, Lucca, Arezzo, Grosseto) are all below average. That might be what saves Giani, although of course it might change tomorrow.

I couldn't make much of the Puglia pattern, especially since it's not clear where candidates have their areas of strength (somehow Emiliano actually underperformed in Taranto in 2015). Marche are inconclusive as well. In Campania, the good omens for De Luca might be confirmed: turnout is above average in Salerno and Avellino, and below average in Naples.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 21, 2020, 12:02:11 AM
Turnout is 56% in Valle d'Aosta, 51% in Veneto, 48% in Tuscany and Marche, 44% in Puglia and Liguria, 43% in Campania. Higher than the national average across the board (thankfully), but still far from stellar. We can hope that tomorrow will bring the total above 50% everywhere. Turnout in Tuscany at the last EU elections was over 60% - I doubt we will get there this time.

Trying to read signals into the provincial turnout patterns, there might be some encouraging patterns in Tuscany. Firenze has the highest turnout, and Siena is on par with the regional average. Pisa (normally a left-leaning province but also Ceccardi's home turf) is above average, but the traditional areas of right-wing strength (Massa-Carrara, Lucca, Arezzo, Grosseto) are all below average. That might be what saves Giani, although of course it might change tomorrow.

I couldn't make much of the Puglia pattern, especially since it's not clear where candidates have their areas of strength (somehow Emiliano actually underperformed in Taranto in 2015). Marche are inconclusive as well. In Campania, the good omens for De Luca might be confirmed: turnout is above average in Salerno and Avellino, and below average in Naples.

I don't think that Campanian provinces are as clear cut as you make them (and certainly the city of Naples is... hmm... not a right-wing stronghold) unless both De Luca and Caldoro have a sh**tload of local appeal, but we'll see. I agree with the rest.


Also: Sicily and Sardinia :(
The usual low turnout of the islands aches.


In other news, the second day of voting has just started!

To the next update.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 21, 2020, 12:15:38 AM
Naples was Caldoro's best province in 2015 (I know, I was surprised too), and Salerno is De Luca Country par excellence. So yeah, my guess in a region like Campania is that the favorite son effect is likely to be strong. We'll see soon enough, of course.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 21, 2020, 08:01:07 AM
In other news, the second day of voting has just started!

To the next update.

Voting has now officially ended in Italy!

Final turnout at the precinct I am working at is around 45%.

I will spend the next couple hours counting votes.
As every other precinct starts counting, an Italy-sized hellish dumpster fire is going to begin soon.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 21, 2020, 08:07:16 AM


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 21, 2020, 08:49:27 AM
The precinct I am at voted 65% Yes and 35% No.
Not a good start at all.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: SPQR on September 21, 2020, 09:01:52 AM
65-35 in favour of the reform is what exit polls are saying too - pretty underwhelming result

For the rest, all as expected
Campania - center-left above 50%
Veneto - center-right with Zaia above 70%
Marche - center-right around 50%
Liguria - center-right above 50%
Toscana - tilt center-left (45-42 but within MoE)
Puglia - pure tossup, all exit polls are giving the exact same intervals for Emiliano (centerleft) and Fitto (centerleft)


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: jaichind on September 21, 2020, 09:05:24 AM
Looks like Lega is behind in Tuscany in exit polls.  Oh well, I was hoping they could filip this one


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Mike88 on September 21, 2020, 09:21:57 AM
New projection gives 67.8% for YES and 32.2% for NO.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 21, 2020, 09:25:43 AM
Looks like Lega is behind in Tuscany in exit polls.  Oh well, I was hoping they could filip this one

"Scratch a libertarian..."

Relieving to see Tuscany leaning towards keeping in its leftist traditions. Fingers crossed for Puglia.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Mike88 on September 21, 2020, 09:28:07 AM
Results from the referendum: https://elezioni.repubblica.it/2020/referendum/20200920/italia?ref=RHPPTP-DE

20.7% counted:

69.2% Yes
30.8% No

54.3% Turnout


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 21, 2020, 09:46:25 AM
So the regional pattern for the referendum seems to track M5S support pretty closely--over 70% in most of the South (plus TAA for some reason), under 60% in FVG, 60-70% everywhere else. It's actually breaking 80% in Molise.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 21, 2020, 09:54:26 AM
Hey folks, I'm already up. Of course the counting is less than halfway in for the referendum and has barely started for the regionals. Oh well.

The writing is clearly on the wall for the referendum. It's going to be Yes above 65%, with a decent chance of above 70%. That's definitely an underperformance, though not as big of one as I was hoping for.

The first regional projections are hopeful, but of course we have to wait and see. Fingers crossed that Emiliano can pull it off in Puglia too.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: SPQR on September 21, 2020, 10:01:29 AM
An exit poll has shown 55% of PD voters have voted No in the referendum.
Zingaretti's next few months might be rocky regardless of the regional elections.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 21, 2020, 10:05:01 AM
Looks like Lega is behind in Tuscany in exit polls.  Oh well, I was hoping they could filip this one

"Scratch a libertarian..."

Relieving to see Tuscany leaning towards keeping in its leftist traditions. Fingers crossed for Puglia.

"...and find a tradcath"

(yesterday a friend of mine sent me an article according to which Ceccardi hosted a wake by an anti-gay tradcath group and was accused of not registering civil unions during her term as mayor)

Fingers crossed!!!


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 21, 2020, 10:05:54 AM
An exit poll has shown 55% of PD voters have voted No in the referendum.
Zingaretti's next few months might be rocky regardless of the regional elections.

<3 I am one of them.

I'm sorry for Zingaretti though.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 21, 2020, 10:07:00 AM
Looks like Lega is behind in Tuscany in exit polls.  Oh well, I was hoping they could filip this one

"Scratch a libertarian..."

Relieving to see Tuscany leaning towards keeping in its leftist traditions. Fingers crossed for Puglia.

"...and find a tradcath"

(yesterday a friend of mine sent me an article according to which Ceccardi hosted a wake by an anti-gay tradcath group and was accused of not registering civil unions during her term as mayor)

Fingers crossed!!!

...who the hell has an ideology-specific wake

Never mind, I digress. First results trickling in from Veneto and it looks like a real ZAIASLIDE.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: SPQR on September 21, 2020, 10:08:54 AM
No is winning in the city centres of Milan, Turin and Rome. Usual centre-periphery trend.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 21, 2020, 10:20:10 AM
No is winning in the city centres of Milan, Turin and Rome. Usual centre-periphery trend.

Lol this is *exactly* what I was expecting to happen.

Digressing, the precinct I am at was won by Toti (narrowly) but PD and Lega tied exactly at 66 votes and I find it funny.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 21, 2020, 10:20:27 AM
An exit poll has shown 55% of PD voters have voted No in the referendum.
Zingaretti's next few months might be rocky regardless of the regional elections.

I don't think Zingaretti should have that much trouble because of it, as long as PD hold up decently in the regional elections. He did his job out of loyalty to the government, but it was always known that there was some opposition from within the PD base. With Yes winning nationally, I don't think there will be much interest in relitigating the issue, within the PD or anywhere else.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: GlobeSoc on September 21, 2020, 10:21:04 AM
is there a regional election link?


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 21, 2020, 10:22:56 AM

Tuscany (https://elezioni2020.regione.toscana.it/Elezioni2020/www/Affluenza/09000000.html)

Everywhere else (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/regionali/scrutini/20200920/elenchiRI)


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: MaxQue on September 21, 2020, 10:23:44 AM
Looks like Lega is behind in Tuscany in exit polls.  Oh well, I was hoping they could filip this one

"Scratch a libertarian..."

Relieving to see Tuscany leaning towards keeping in its leftist traditions. Fingers crossed for Puglia.

"...and find a tradcath"

(yesterday a friend of mine sent me an article according to which Ceccardi hosted a wake by an anti-gay tradcath group and was accused of not registering civil unions during her term as mayor)

Fingers crossed!!!

...who the hell has an ideology-specific wake

Never mind, I digress. First results trickling in from Veneto and it looks like a real ZAIASLIDE.

Tradcats do. They refuse the Vatican II reforms and so, it's still all said in Latin.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 21, 2020, 10:24:40 AM
First SWG projection has Emiliano up 9(!!!), 47-38. If that holds, I think they can pop out the champagne at the Nazareno.

It also has De Luca at 67%. What a nice projection.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 21, 2020, 10:25:04 AM
Looks like Lega is behind in Tuscany in exit polls.  Oh well, I was hoping they could filip this one

"Scratch a libertarian..."

Relieving to see Tuscany leaning towards keeping in its leftist traditions. Fingers crossed for Puglia.

"...and find a tradcath"

(yesterday a friend of mine sent me an article according to which Ceccardi hosted a wake by an anti-gay tradcath group and was accused of not registering civil unions during her term as mayor)

Fingers crossed!!!

...who the hell has an ideology-specific wake

Never mind, I digress. First results trickling in from Veneto and it looks like a real ZAIASLIDE.

Tradcats do. They refuse the Vatican II reforms and so, it's still all said in Latin.

It's not the idea of an FSSP or ICKSP or whatever wake that's baffling to me, it's the idea of a wake that manages to be expressly anti-gay.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: windjammer on September 21, 2020, 10:35:07 AM
Looking good for the PS and a disaster for Five Stars Movement


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 21, 2020, 10:36:16 AM
Looks like Lega is behind in Tuscany in exit polls.  Oh well, I was hoping they could filip this one

"Scratch a libertarian..."

Relieving to see Tuscany leaning towards keeping in its leftist traditions. Fingers crossed for Puglia.

"...and find a tradcath"

(yesterday a friend of mine sent me an article according to which Ceccardi hosted a wake by an anti-gay tradcath group and was accused of not registering civil unions during her term as mayor)

Fingers crossed!!!

...who the hell has an ideology-specific wake

Never mind, I digress. First results trickling in from Veneto and it looks like a real ZAIASLIDE.

Tradcats do. They refuse the Vatican II reforms and so, it's still all said in Latin.

It's not the idea of an FSSP or ICKSP or whatever wake that's baffling to me, it's the idea of a wake that manages to be expressly anti-gay.

As far as I was able to reckon:

1. They seem to protest pretty much everything of what most people would call gay rights.

2. Given that their name is Sentinelle in piedi i.e. "Standing watchguards" what they did is not surprising.

P. S. I think I misused the word tradcath. I am not sure what they believe about Vatican II. I guess I meant tradcon. Sorry for the misunderstanding.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 21, 2020, 10:36:54 AM
Looking good for the PS and a disaster for Five Stars Movement

What is the PS?


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Mike88 on September 21, 2020, 10:39:22 AM
I think he means PD. Typo error, I assume.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: parochial boy on September 21, 2020, 10:39:31 AM
The relatively weak Yes votes in Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia, was that to be expected? Like the latter in particular doesn't strike me as the kind of place that would stand out in that direction?


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 21, 2020, 10:40:02 AM

Or maybe he's still salty about the French PS completely going shıt.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: windjammer on September 21, 2020, 10:41:26 AM
I meant PD sorry :P. (The PS did quite well in the last mayoral elections btw)


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 21, 2020, 10:53:34 AM
The relatively weak Yes votes in Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia, was that to be expected? Like the latter in particular doesn't strike me as the kind of place that would stand out in that direction?

It wasn't particularly expected, although it makes sense if you imagine a lot of Lega voters voting No to try to embarrass the government. Then again, the Lombardy vote is on par with the national average, so maybe the explanation is not so easy. And TAA is over 70% Yes for some reason.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 21, 2020, 11:01:15 AM
The relatively weak Yes votes in Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia, was that to be expected? Like the latter in particular doesn't strike me as the kind of place that would stand out in that direction?

It wasn't particularly expected, although it makes sense if you imagine a lot of Lega voters voting No to try to embarrass the government. Then again, the Lombardy vote is on par with the national average, so maybe the explanation is not so easy. And TAA is over 70% Yes for some reason.

When the number of total Senators gets cut by 33% but TAA only passes from 7 to 6, I guess Trentinians and South Tyroleans will find the option very appealing.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 21, 2020, 11:04:19 AM
Tuscany's going to go to a runoff with these numbers, correct? Just want to confirm/remind myself of things.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: parochial boy on September 21, 2020, 11:18:04 AM
The relatively weak Yes votes in Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia, was that to be expected? Like the latter in particular doesn't strike me as the kind of place that would stand out in that direction?

It wasn't particularly expected, although it makes sense if you imagine a lot of Lega voters voting No to try to embarrass the government. Then again, the Lombardy vote is on par with the national average, so maybe the explanation is not so easy. And TAA is over 70% Yes for some reason.

Largely due to Südtirol by the looks of it; although the SVP at least appear to have not backed either side so I'm not sure what would be going on there


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 21, 2020, 11:34:56 AM
Tuscany's going to go to a runoff with these numbers, correct? Just want to confirm/remind myself of things.

No, the runoff only applies if no candidate reaches 40%.


Largely due to Südtirol by the looks of it; although the SVP at least appear to have not backed either side so I'm not sure what would be going on there

Guess the crypto-Austrians just love the idea of cutting some dead weight in Rome. :P Especially combined with Battista's point about relative representation.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 21, 2020, 11:36:49 AM
I have now finished my work as a poll worker and have just got home. It was actually pretty boring.

I am waiting for more precincts reporting for the regionals.

To parochial boy and Antonio: see my post about TAA gaining relative representation through this.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 21, 2020, 11:37:29 AM
Tuscany's going to go to a runoff with these numbers, correct? Just want to confirm/remind myself of things.

No, the runoff only applies if no candidate reaches 40%.


Which is why I asked. There was seeming agreement earlier it also applied if everyone was in the 40s without anyone crossing 50%.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 21, 2020, 11:43:56 AM
New SWG Puglia projection has Emiliano at 46 and Fitto at 38. Slightly less than the first one, but not enough to make a difference.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Logical on September 21, 2020, 11:48:39 AM
Center Left overperforming exit polls everywhere except Veneto.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Picciriddu on September 21, 2020, 12:03:02 PM
nice


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 21, 2020, 12:08:03 PM

Welcome to the forum! :)

Are you Calabrese or Sicilian? I'm one of the few people who know what your username means, and I highly approve.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Picciriddu on September 21, 2020, 12:12:07 PM

Welcome to the forum! :)

Are you Calabrese or Sicilian? I'm one of the few people who know what your username means, and I highly approve.

thank you!!
I'm Calabrese, from Gerace.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 21, 2020, 12:16:14 PM
YOUR REVOLUTION IS OVER, CECCARDI! CONDOLENCES! THE FASH LOST! THE FASH WILL ALWAYS LOSE!


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: SPQR on September 21, 2020, 12:18:24 PM
Meanwhile the right risks winning the Senate by-election in Sardinia (former M5S seat) against a center-left fielding 3 candidates...


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 21, 2020, 12:21:11 PM

Welcome to the forum! :)

Are you Calabrese or Sicilian? I'm one of the few people who know what your username means, and I highly approve.

thank you!!
I'm Calabrese, from Gerace.

Oh wonderful!! My father is Calabrese, from Melito (I've lived most of my life in France and currently I'm in California as my avatar suggests, but I still feel strongly Italian). It's nice to have a close compatriot on here.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 21, 2020, 12:39:17 PM
YOUR REVOLUTION IS OVER, CECCARDI! CONDOLENCES! THE FASH LOST! THE FASH WILL ALWAYS LOSE!

If it wasn't too long, I would change my display name to "In the privacy of the polling booth, God sees you - Salvini doesn't".


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 21, 2020, 12:47:44 PM
YOUR REVOLUTION IS OVER, CECCARDI! CONDOLENCES! THE FASH LOST! THE FASH WILL ALWAYS LOSE!

If it wasn't too long, I would change my display name to "In the privacy of the polling booth, God sees you - Salvini doesn't".

Great minds think alike!

()


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 21, 2020, 12:53:23 PM
YOUR REVOLUTION IS OVER, CECCARDI! CONDOLENCES! THE FASH LOST! THE FASH WILL ALWAYS LOSE!

If it wasn't too long, I would change my display name to "In the privacy of the polling booth, God sees you - Salvini doesn't".

Great minds think alike!

()

<3


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 21, 2020, 01:06:03 PM
The man, the myth, the legend, the one and only VINCENZO DE LUCA speaking now.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 21, 2020, 01:09:32 PM
The man, the myth, the legend, the one and only VINCENZO DE LUCA speaking now.

MR. VINCENT DE LUCA 😎


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 22, 2020, 02:24:58 AM
The man, the myth, the legend, the one and only VINCENZO DE LUCA speaking now.

MR. VINCENT DE LUCA 😎

Unbeatable Titan Vincenzo De Luca! <3

[I promised the display name would be out today]


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 22, 2020, 04:20:26 AM
All referendum votes have been counted. Yes has won with 69.64% of the votes.

To the dismay of Edu and Antonio among others, Italians Abroad has been a Yes landslide bigger than any region save Molise.
My region, Liguria, has been one of only three where No cracked 35%, which is slightly relieving.

Final turnout is slightly above 50%, which is bad but not abysmal. More than 26,000,000 people have voted.

After screening for whether or not a region had regional elections, the geographic turnout differential has been pretty small, which is a good turnabout, because after 2018 (77% in the North - 68% in the South) and 2019 (62.5% in the North - 46.5% in the South), I was not necessarily expecting to see Piedmont and Lombardy at 51.5% vs Abruzzo+Basilicata+Calabria+Molise at 48.5%. Exception are the Islands, which always disappoint on this front, and for some obscure reason, our friends in TAA.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 22, 2020, 08:21:23 AM
So overall the regional elections weren't too bad for the centre-left?


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Velasco on September 22, 2020, 08:52:29 AM
So overall the regional elections weren't too bad for the centre-left?

Retaining Tuscany, Campania and Puglia was important for the centre-left, especially the former. Add to this that the referendum on the constitutional reform proposed by M5S was successful and the result is that the Conte government is reinforced However, the right retains Veneto and other bastions and Fratelli D'Italia is about to snatch the Marche region


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 22, 2020, 09:23:57 AM
Quick and dirty map of the left-right topline in the provinces:

()

You really get a sense of De Luca, Zaia, and Toti's landslides vs. Acquaroli, Emiliano, and Giani's somewhat more modest victories, plus Tuscany's seemingly greater degree of political diversity (and self-sorting--sad!) than the other regions that voted this weekend.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 22, 2020, 11:35:14 AM
Quick and dirty map of the left-right topline in the provinces:

()

You really get a sense of De Luca, Zaia, and Toti's landslides vs. Acquaroli, Emiliano, and Giani's somewhat more modest victories, plus Tuscany's seemingly greater degree of political diversity (and self-sorting--sad!) than the other regions that voted this weekend.

So how do those results compare with previously?


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 22, 2020, 11:52:48 AM

So how do those results compare with previously?

It depends on what you mean with "previously".

Last regional cycle (2015) Italy was still in the midst of a Renzi crush.
Last parliamentary elections (2018) Italy was high on Five Star sugar.
Last European elections (2019) are probably the most comparable and what you'd get is basically "the left has gained" but to very different degrees in different places.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 22, 2020, 11:55:49 AM
So how do those results compare with previously?

In 2015 the left swept the Tuscan, Apulian, and Marchesan provinces, as well as winning La Spezia province in Liguria; however, the right won Naples and Caserta provinces in Campania. But it needs to be remembered that M5S was much stronger then than it is now and that the lockstep center-right-to-right bloc hadn't fully consolidated yet. There were plenty of left-wing plurality victories five years ago that became right-wing plurality victories this weekend.

Relative to the 2018 general and 2019 EP elections, though, yes the left has bounced back.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Estrella on September 22, 2020, 12:04:12 PM
Possibly clueless #analysis and musings:

I know that the blowout in Campania and record-high percentages for the right in Red Belt were local results with all that follows from that. Still, I wonder if we might see a trend where both Central and Southern Italy become some sort of...swing regions? Something like if right wins, they'll be winning in Emilia-Romagna and if left wins, they'll be winning in Apulia - because of/despite the likelihood that the 2013 and 2018 three-cornered freak shows were aberrations that won't be repeated anytime soon.

Methinks that Fratelli are not Forza and will never be getting those kinds of results in the South, while Lega is MSI boogaloo elettrico - not an explicitly regional party, but doing quite a bit better in one part of the county than others (and also crazy far-right nuts). Sure, the border of that part has shifted a few hundred kilometres southwards but they will not become a truly national force like Forza (hah) either. Point being, Salvini and Meloni will have strongholds in their respective halves of the country, but the former will be stronger than Berlusconi in formerly lefty places and the latter will be weaker than him in formerly righty ones.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 22, 2020, 12:26:22 PM
Possibly clueless #analysis and musings:

I know that the blowout in Campania and record-high percentages for the right in Red Belt were local results with all that follows from that. Still, I wonder if we might see a trend where both Central and Southern Italy become some sort of...swing regions? Something like if right wins, they'll be winning in Emilia-Romagna and if left wins, they'll be winning in Apulia - because of/despite the likelihood that the 2013 and 2018 three-cornered freak shows were aberrations that won't be repeated anytime soon.

Methinks that Fratelli are not Forza and will never be getting those kinds of results in the South, while Lega is MSI boogaloo elettrico - not an explicitly regional party, but doing quite a bit better in one part of the county than others (and also crazy far-right nuts). Sure, the border of that part has shifted a few hundred kilometres southwards but they will not become a truly national force like Forza (hah) either. Point being, Salvini and Meloni will have strongholds in their respective halves of the country, but the former will be stronger than Berlusconi in formerly lefty places and the latter will be weaker than him in formerly righty ones.

No. The results in Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany are in line with the previous two decades if you adjust for the national climate. They are still pretty red - although I reckon they are so in a different way from the past because of urban-rural polarization - they are not going to become swing regions.
Southern Italy *was* mostly a swing area before M5S happened, and I think it can come back to be one if the left plays its cards well.

I think your point about the regionality of the right-wing is correct, assuming the right-wing remains a Lega-FdI tandem. I wouldn't rule out crazy things happening, but of course I don't know what these crazy things would be.
Your point about formerly lefty and formerly righty areas is interesting but I am not sure how much I agree.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 22, 2020, 12:55:12 PM
So, what happened in the Aosta Valley? Why did the AV local party get hit so hard?


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 22, 2020, 01:00:28 PM
By the way:
The province of La Spezia has been the worst one for Toti. Yas!

I am a bit salty that he still won the city of La Spezia, however a funny thing is that here his personal list has done particularly badly and it is one of the few places where both Lega and FdI have beaten it.

I went check some precincts and the main culprit is that muh city centre liberals* voted big for Toti. However precinct no. 62 covering the noted #Communist <3 village of Pitelli voted Sansa 67-32.

*in the European sense


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: palandio on September 22, 2020, 01:12:23 PM
So how do those results compare with previously?
Italy during the Second Republic has been leaning slightly to the right.

In the most recent past Italy has leaned strongly to the right (e.g. 2019 EP election). (And the Right has become more right-wing than in the past.)

It's difficult to extrapolate from yesterday's results to the national level, but it seems to me that the Right still is clearly favored on the national level, not as much as during the last two years or so, but clearly favored. On the other hand the left has been able to consolidate, mostly at the expense of M5S (and to a minor degree FI?), but outside of Emilia-Romagna and Toscana it seems to still trail the right. Large parts of the South have been swingy during the Second Republic. The results in Campania and Apulia show that under the right circumstances the left-wing potential is still there in the South, but it won't necessarily translate to the national level.

When talking about where regions are going to lean, we should take into account not only one side (Lega+FdI), but all sides. The Left is deeply rooted in parts of the Center-North and socio-economic trends are favorable to it in parts of the Center-North. Therefore the Lega won't magically take it all over with no resistance. On the other hand the South will not just vote for the Left because there isn't anyone else left, the Left will have to actively win back the South.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: palandio on September 22, 2020, 01:17:47 PM
I went check some precincts and the main culprit is that muh city centre liberals* voted big for Toti.
The success of Zaia's and Toti's personal lists, the Lega's relative(!) weakness and the assumption that FdI can't completely fill out the center-right space in the South make me think:

Is a tandem really a safe option for Lega and FdI or would they gain a lot by including FI or some "moderate" successor in their alliance?


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 22, 2020, 01:31:43 PM
I went check some precincts and the main culprit is that muh city centre liberals* voted big for Toti.
The success of Zaia's and Toti's personal lists, the Lega's relative(!) weakness and the assumption that FdI can't completely fill out the center-right space in the South make me think:

Is a tandem really a safe option for Lega and FdI or would the gave to gain a lot by including FI or some "moderate" successor in their alliance?

I don't know if that assumption is valid to be honest.
People forget that AN took 16% of the votes in 1996. And Fini had identified as a neofascist until two years and a half before. FdI can do even better in my opinion.

I don't know if they have to gain or not. I think FI will be a part of the coalition as long as the party exists, but I also think that they are slowly dying out and I have no idea how a moderate successor could look like.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 22, 2020, 01:43:00 PM
No. The results in Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany are in line with the previous two decades if you adjust for the national climate. They are still pretty red - although I reckon they are so in a different way from the past because of urban-rural polarization - they are not going to become swing regions.

Also the point is that the Left was able to win in Tuscany whilst running an actual block of wood as its candidate. Do that almost anywhere else, and the result would be (and often has been) decidedly less pretty. But what is true - and this is not a phenomenon unique to Italy! - is that party allegiances are weaker than they have ever been, and this means greater and greater electoral volatility. Occasionally this will mean results that, in combination, will look perverse. But they will not represent a new order.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 22, 2020, 01:52:50 PM
No. The results in Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany are in line with the previous two decades if you adjust for the national climate. They are still pretty red - although I reckon they are so in a different way from the past because of urban-rural polarization - they are not going to become swing regions.

Also the point is that the Left was able to win in Tuscany whilst running an actual block of wood as its candidate. Do that almost anywhere else, and the result would be (and often has been) decidedly less pretty. But what is true - and this is not a phenomenon unique to Italy! - is that party allegiances are weaker than they have ever been, and this means greater and greater electoral volatility. Occasionally this will mean results that, in combination, will look perverse. But they will not represent a new order.

Yes. If the left had had a Bonaccini-level candidate in Tuscany I think it would have been by more, like 12 to 15 percentage points.
Party allegiances have been extraordinarily weak in Italy in the last few years, but I sort of think that we have just reached and possibly passed a low point.

So, what happened in the Aosta Valley? Why did the AV local party get hit so hard?

I have no idea. Aosta Valley politics is pretty obscure (also reminder that the Aosta Valley has less people than the city of Livorno).


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: palandio on September 22, 2020, 02:13:11 PM
[...]
assumption that FdI can't completely fill out the center-right space in the South
[...]
I don't know if that assumption is valid to be honest.
People forget that AN took 16% of the votes in 1996. And Fini had identified as a neofascist until two years and a half before. FdI can do even better in my opinion.
And in parts of the South AN was even stronger than this. I know that a part of the Southern FI and CCD-CDU vote was not ideological, that today is a different time and that maybe FdI is more palatable than AN was in 1996. But still, in 1996 FI took over 20% in most of the South (in Sicily 32%), not even accounting for the CCD-CDU. I doubt that a party that is basically the successor of post-fascist AN without the moderate wing, can inherit (Southern) AN, FI and CCD-CDU at the same time.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: parochial boy on September 22, 2020, 02:18:49 PM
So, what happened in the Aosta Valley? Why did the AV local party get hit so hard?

It turns out the entire Aostan political class has been in the pockets of the Calabrese mafia for decades, it seems the revelation didn't go down well.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 22, 2020, 02:21:12 PM
[...]
assumption that FdI can't completely fill out the center-right space in the South
[...]
I don't know if that assumption is valid to be honest.
People forget that AN took 16% of the votes in 1996. And Fini had identified as a neofascist until two years and a half before. FdI can do even better in my opinion.
And in parts of the South AN was even stronger than this. I know that a part of the Southern FI and CCD-CDU vote was not ideological, that today is a different time and that maybe FdI is more palatable than AN was in 1996. But still, in 1996 FI took over 20% in most of the South (in Sicily 32%), not even accounting for the CCD-CDU. I doubt that a party that is basically the successor of post-fascist AN without the moderate wing, can inherit (Southern) AN, FI and CCD-CDU at the same time.

No, but it doesn't need to, because Lega is far from inexistent in the South, and it would "inherit" part of those votes.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: BigSerg on September 22, 2020, 02:38:06 PM
The election results were not "good" for the left.

Tuscany Right Increase 10.1%
Apulian  Right Increase 6.2%


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 22, 2020, 03:02:33 PM
The election results were not "good" for the left.

Tuscany Right Increase 10.1%
Apulian  Right Increase 6.2%


LMAO
Maybe you mean they were not good for M5S?

2015 Tuscany, centre-left candidate Enrico Rossi - 48%
2020 Tuscany, centre-left candidate Eugenio Giani - 48.6%

2015 Apulia, centre-left candidate Michele Emiliano - 47.1%
2020 Apulia, centre-left candidate Michele Emiliano - 46.8%


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: palandio on September 22, 2020, 04:19:17 PM
The election results were not "good" for the left.

Tuscany Right Increase 10.1%
Apulian  Right Increase 6.2%

Whom are you even replying to?


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 22, 2020, 11:52:47 PM
So, here's my #analysis, a little belatedly (sorry, it's been another busy day - been having a lot of those lately).

The biggest surprise for me was Puglia. Honestly, before the election my guts were telling me Emiliano was toast (though I didn't say so out of scaramanzia). He had everybody against him, both M5S (because the local M5S leadership is full of idiots) and IV (because Renzi and Emiliano are bitter enemies), and a right-wing united around a strong candidate. All that while being a divisive figure in a region with a right-leaning history at a time where the right is still polling high nationwide. It was enough of a surprise that the polls were so competitive, but to win (with about the same percentage he got in 2015, and the same margin that Giani and Bonaccini won by in the red regions)... well, that's nothing short of remarkable. I guess my perception of him as an impressive politician was correct all along. There is a lot to quibble about the other races this cycle, but this is a clear-cut victory for the left and we have every right to celebrate it. And while talks of trends in other regions are indeed greatly exaggerated, I think there might be some truth to it here. This used to be one of the most conservative regions in the South, and yet the left has been able to hold it down for 15, through two separate waves of right-wing ascendancy. This is starting to look meaningful.

Toscana is nice. I was feeling a bit better about it going in, due to the precedent in E-R. It's easier to believe that there's a resilient leftist vote there that will come home on election day (to keep up the US parallel, think of how Connecticut or Oregon flirt with electing Republicans but always come around for Dems in the end). I was still worried, of course, especially because I'd heard Ceccardi being hyped up as this great leghista ace in the hole since before the EU election. Well, the hype turned out to be just that. You know the most hilarious thing? Ceccardi, a symbol of a Lega "rooted deep in the territories" of former red bastions... lost the town she had been the mayor of, Cascina. And not by a hair either: by a whopping 10 points. Turns out those who knew her best didn't like her much anymore. The internal provincial patterns were very interesting, and aptly if colorfully described by Battista. The results in the Siena province are especially dear to my heart because this is basically my favorite place in Italy. It's glad to see there is a tradition of rural leftism that is still alive and kicking. Anyway, winning Tuscany by just 8 points is still an underperformance, of course, but like E-R, it's a marked recovery since 2019 and even possibly since 2018.

Campania and Veneto mirror each other, and in a way it's really nice to see. Those are highly abnormal election results for Italy - we've almost never elections for offices higher than mayors turn into blowouts. But those abnormal elections took place in abnormal times, abnormal times where the connection between sound policies and saved lives is clearer than ever. I'm no fan of Zaia, but there's no denying that his COVID policies were a resounding success. Veneto was the only region to adopt systematic testing from the very beginning, and despite being one of the earliest epicenters of the pandemics, saw its healthcare system weather the crisis successfully. By June, it had less than a quarter the death rate of Lombardy, and less than half that of Piedmont and E-R. Whatever you think of Zaia as a leader, this is a remarkable achievement, and it makes voters' gratitude very understandable.

The same story goes in Campania. De Luca went viral, in classic De Luca fashion, for calling on cops to come at the people who flouted the lockdown with flamethrowers. But it was more than just bluster: De Luca consistently put the health and safety of Campanians first in his policies, and was always a voice calling for stricter and more severe policies to prevent the spread of the epidemic (unfortunately, the national government didn't always listen to him, and that's part of why we're in the middle of a second wave now). Once again, voters saw all that and they were grateful. Before the pandemic, De Luca was down 10 points in the polls - he won by over 50. That has to be one of the greatest turnarounds in the history of democratic elections worldwide. It's really nice to see that sometime, plain old good government can make a difference in an election. And thank God for it - now we can look forward to 5 more years of wonderful rhetorical flourishes and merciless eviscerations on the part of this titan of modern politics. My King Is Alive indeed!

Marche is of course a bitter pill to swallow. Battista is right that it was never as red as the other Red Regions, but it was part of the same continuum and is one of those more remote, sparsely-populated places where left-wing support has been eroding. It is quite telling that the left still controls 5 of the 9 "big" regions (those with more than 5% of the population), but not a single one of the "small" regions. And to add insult to injury, the winner is a full-blown neofascist. Sadly that doesn't seem to be a serious flaw to voters anymore... Well, at least the 12-point margin is not quite the 20-point margin in Umbria, and it remains to be seen how durable those shifts are.

Liguria is a really bitter pill to swallow. Toti was barely elected in 2015 due to a stupid left-wing split, and he's fundamentally an unserious lightweight. There's no real good-government motivation here: Liguria weathered the COVID outbreak pretty badly and Toti gave a poor example when he was caught multiple times not wearing his mask when he should have. Pundits say the rebuilding of the Genoa bridge that collapsed tow years ago bolstered his campaign, and that might well be true, but it's pretty undeserved given that most of the work was done by the mayor (who is right-wing himself) and the national government. Anyway, Toti won by 17 points, the biggest win for the right in the region in the modern era. I have no idea what this result means in the long run, but I have to hope there's no long-term trend at work. Liguria is historically basically a Red Region, and it must stay that way.

Valle d'Aosta... is Valle d'Aosta. As Parochial Boy points out, there was a big corruption scandal there that engulfed the incumbent regional council (indeed, that forced its dissolution, since it would normally have had 3 more years to go). And now Lega is the first party here, the only genuinely good result of the night for Salvini. Still, since the political system there still works based on good old (normal, sane) First Republic rules, there's no telling what that will entail concretely. I'm kind of hoping that a majority can be cobbled up without relying on Lega votes (of course that would mean relying on some of the disgraced incumbent parties, but that's life). I still have family ties in Valle d'Aosta and I'd hate for Lega to gain a foothold in this weird remote corner of the country.

The referendum results are exactly what we all expected. No big surprises there. Very disappointing to see Italians abroad vote for it even more massively than residents - we are usually less into populist bullsh*t than other Italians. On the other hand, I guess Italians abroad don't have much reason to care about their connection to their MP. Oh well. Either way, the implications are mixed. We know the bad news, but the good news is that this makes it imperative to pass a new electoral law. Until a new law is pass, I'm not even sure if it's constitutionally possible to have elections right now, which is. Quite the can of worms. This means that 1. there's no chance of the government collapsing any time soon, and 2. when a new electoral law is passed, it's hard not to believe that it would be largely a return to some form of PR. Which is exactly what we need right now to ensure that Salvini never gains the "full power" he so craves. So, I guess there's a silver linin to every cloud.

So that's it, those are my ramblings, if anyone cares. :P


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Mike Thick on September 23, 2020, 12:40:22 AM
Found out about the Tuscan regional elections when, yesterday, I got a postcard from the Italian Government telling me they were happening. Got here too late for me to actually make a decision, but I probably wouldn't have traveled all the way to Italy just to vote lmao. Fortunately, PD didn't need my help.

Also cast my first Italian vote ever in the Constitutional Referendum a few weeks ago -- voted no because I read somewhere that Lega supported it, but probably would have gone yes if I'd mailed by ballot after PD said they support it. Kind of feel bad that I'm about as high-info a voter as you can be in America, but I have no idea what's going on in Italy. Oh well. Staying up to date on America keeps my hands full :P


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 23, 2020, 12:53:18 AM
Found out about the Tuscan regional elections when, yesterday, I got a postcard from the Italian Government telling me they were happening. Got here too late for me to actually make a decision, but I probably wouldn't have traveled all the way to Italy just to vote lmao. Fortunately, PD didn't need my help.

Also cast my first Italian vote ever in the Constitutional Referendum a few weeks ago -- voted no because I read somewhere that Lega supported it, but probably would have gone yes if I'd mailed by ballot after PD said they support it. Kind of feel bad that I'm about as high-info a voter as you can be in America, but I have no idea what's going on in Italy. Oh well. Staying up to date on America keeps my hands full :P

<3 you voted the right way - as did the other Atlas Italians Abroad.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 23, 2020, 01:55:52 AM

Apart from our - mostly rhetorical - disagreement on the last part (I am also frustrated like as hell at the idea of the fourth different electoral law in 15 years), I'll add this:

LIGURIA
Liguria I think will come back to its status as Red Region Lite. It's actually pretty urban. Genoa = 1/3 of Liguria.
Toti won by so much because his list slamdunked in the city of Genoa for I don't know what reason. It was unexpected.
La Spezia 2019: Right 45 - Left 35
Savona 2019: Right 41.5 - Left 38
Genoa 2019: Left 39.5 - Right 39

La Spezia 2020: Toti +4
Savona 2020: Toti +1
At which point you would expect Genoa to be say Sansa +5 or so and instead it was Toti +8. Meh.

I think Genoa will snap back to pretty left-leaning at the next national election.

TUSCANY
Thanks for the recognition hahaha, I literally spouted that just because I wanted to say "Siena hick Marxists" and then got along.
Lol at Ceccardi losing Cascina. Maybe we can arrest the suburban drift. There's also the fact that people in the town may be kinda enraged that in 2019 she said "whoops I was elected MEP, bye bye" and now her former deputy mayor is in charge of Cascina.

Yesterday Nathan wrote this - I am not sure he had Ceccardi in mind but I actually think it fits her well.
"political Catholicism is when you're right-wing; the more right-wing you are, the more Catholic it is :)" nonsense-mongering

> Opposed strongly the construction of a mosque in a city she's not even in charge of
> Gave honorary citizenship to Magdi Cristiano Allam
> Names her daughter after a legendary Pisan heroine who stopped a Saracen invasion

> Was accused of not registering civil unions
> So much a defender of the traditional family that she lives with her partner but they are not married or anything

Also this quote from late 2016: "Demonstrations against violence on women are not useful [...] teach them first of all how not to be preys"

Too bad that Ceccardi <Tender Branson> is actually a very good-looking woman </Tender Branson>


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 23, 2020, 07:27:57 AM
The election results were not "good" for the left.

Tuscany Right Increase 10.1%
Apulian  Right Increase 6.2%

Whom are you even replying to?

Someone imaginary?


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 23, 2020, 09:26:32 AM
The election results were not "good" for the left.

Tuscany Right Increase 10.1%
Apulian  Right Increase 6.2%


Bubbeleh, nobody is claiming that these elections were good for the left relative to the last elections in these regions, only that they're a bounce-back from the left's 2018-2019 nadir. Nobody is claiming that the left is returning to Renzi-honeymoon levels or even to its relative strength in the 1994-2006 period. Relax.

> So much a defender of the traditional family that she lives with her partner but they are not married or anything

I was reading about Giorgia Meloni on Wikipedia the other day and this is true of her too. And of course Salvini has been through three domestic partners since divorcing his wife in 2010. Lots of hypocrisy on this one very specific "lifestyle" issue on the Italian hard right.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 23, 2020, 10:03:35 AM

> So much a defender of the traditional family that she lives with her partner but they are not married or anything

I was reading about Giorgia Meloni on Wikipedia the other day and this is true of her too. And of course Salvini has been through three domestic partners since divorcing his wife in 2010. Lots of hypocrisy on this one very specific "lifestyle" issue on the Italian hard right.

Yeah lol and don't even get started on Berlusconi! Bunga Bunga.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: palandio on September 23, 2020, 02:36:23 PM
LIGURIA
Liguria I think will come back to its status as Red Region Lite. It's actually pretty urban. Genoa = 1/3 of Liguria.
Toti won by so much because his list slamdunked in the city of Genoa for I don't know what reason. It was unexpected.
La Spezia 2019: Right 45 - Left 35
Savona 2019: Right 41.5 - Left 38
Genoa 2019: Left 39.5 - Right 39

La Spezia 2020: Toti +4
Savona 2020: Toti +1
At which point you would expect Genoa to be say Sansa +5 or so and instead it was Toti +8. Meh.

I think Genoa will snap back to pretty left-leaning at the next national election.

Regarding the comparison of results in Genoa (city) 2019 and 2020:
Toti overperformed the 2019 Lega+FdI+FI numbers by 12.6 points. Overperformance is actually relatively evenly distributed throughout the city, but looking the results by unità urbanistica you can still see some patterns.

The strongest overperformances:
Bavari+18.0    village in the East
Puggia+16.8    bourgeois quarter on the Eastern coast
Apparizione+16.6    village in the East
Foce+15.9    relatively bourgeois, east of center
Lido+15.9    bourgeois quarter on the Eastern coast
S. Giuliano+15.5    bourgeois quarter on the Eastern coast
Quartara+15.5    bourgeois quarter on the Eastern coast
Quezzi+15.2    high-density working class periphery around old village
Albaro+15.2    bourgeois quarter on the Eastern coast

The weakest overperformances:
Morego+2.5    peripheral village near the Polcevera valley
Campi+6.0    industrial area near the Polcevera mouth
Borzoli Est+7.4    village turned working class periphery on a hill between Western coast and Polcevera valley
Borzoli Ovest+8.0    "
S. Quirico+8.5    village in the Polcevera valley
Voltri+8.5    working-class town on the far Western coast, left-wing stronghold
Pré+9.1    immigrant-heavy quarter in the medieval/renaissance center
Palmaro+9.2    working-class quarter on the far Western coast
Sestri+9.5    working-class city-in-a-city on the Western coast, left-wing stronghold
Bolzaneto+9.8    working-class town in the Polcevera valley
Multedo+10.0    quarter on the Western coast
Molo+10.0    immigrant-heavy quarter in the medieval/renaissance center

Compared to 2019 it seems that some of Genoa's bourgeois quarters have reverted to a very traditional pattern.

On the other hand there seems to be no evidence that many 2019 M5S voters (the M5S vote in Genoa was almost perfectly negatively correlated to income) went towards the Right in 2020. Which might come a bit as a surprise, because after all at the 2019 European elections the M5S was still governing with the Lega.

Like you I think that Genoa voted so far for the Right this one time (because of the bridge?) and that Genoa will revert to a more left-wing course at the national level. I would be cautious though to put Genoa into the same basket as Milan, Bologna, etc. Genoa is very much a post-industrial city with different issues from other big cities.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 23, 2020, 03:59:08 PM
Like you I think that Genoa voted so far for the Right this one time (because of the bridge?) and that Genoa will revert to a more left-wing course at the national level. I would be cautious though to put Genoa into the same basket as Milan, Bologna, etc. Genoa is very much a post-industrial city with different issues from other big cities.

Well yes Genoa is different from other big cities but is still prone to the left-wing lately as all big cities, although I reckon with a different internal geography.
La Spezia (and Savona) are also industrial and this presumably contributes to them being less bad than most for the left lately.
I should do a "La Spezia lay of the land" one day tbh.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on September 23, 2020, 04:58:24 PM
Okay I really don't get the argument for "no" on the referendum. Anything more than 300 representatives or so seems absurd. What's the point of having all of them?


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 24, 2020, 12:30:11 AM
To continue the points Battista and Palandio made, here's a comparison of Toti's scores in 2015 and 2020:
+22 in Imperia province (43% to 65%)
+19 in Savona province (40% to 59%)
+24 in Genoa city (28% to 52%)
+22 in Genoa province, city excluded (37% to 59%)
+18 in La Spezia province (33% to 51%)

So yeah, here as well there's been a stronger trend in Genoa proper than anywhere else. My guess would be that this was all about the bridge reconstruction, yeah. It's really frustrating, but I guess not particularly surprising. Oh well. Glad to see that La Spezia is still the most left-wing province! I guess this does bode reasonably well for the future.


Okay I really don't get the argument for "no" on the referendum. Anything more than 300 representatives or so seems absurd. What's the point of having all of them?

300 representatives can't possibly "represent" jack sh*t in a country of 60 million inhabitants. I mean, granted, it's not like 600 representatives were doing a great job to begin with, but this will just make it worse.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: MRCVzla on September 24, 2020, 01:58:39 AM
Summary of elected Regional Councils (compared to the 2015 results)
Veneto
Centre-right: 42 seats (+8; in 2015, including Tosi-led centre list)
Centre-left: 9 seats (-3)
M5S: 0 (-5)

Liguria
Centre-right: 19 seats (+3)
Centre-left+:M5S 12 seats (-3; in 2015, Csx, M5S and Rete a Sinistra -today Linea Condivisa- ran separately)

Tuscany
Centre-left: 25 seats (=)
Centre-right: 14 seats (+5; in 2015 LN/FdI and FI ran separately)
M5S: 2 seats (-3)
Left-wing (Fattori): 0 (-2)

Marche
Centre-right: 20 seats (+13; in 2015 LN/FdI and FI/Area Popolare ran separately)
Centre-left: 9 seats (-10)
M5S: 2 seats (-3)

Campania
Centre-left: 33 seats (+2)
Centre-right: 11 seats (-2)
M5S: 7 seats (=)

Apulia
Centre-left: 28 seats (-2)
Centre-right: 18 seats (+5)
M5S: 5 seats (-3)

Total coalitions (six regions, compared with 2015 results):
Centre-right: 124 seats (+32)
Centre-left: 114 seats (-12)
M5S: 18 seats* (-18)
Left-wing: 0 (-2)

*M5S elected 2 seats in Liguria (-4 respect 2015) as part of the centre-left coalition.

Total main national parties (six regions, including elected regional candidates):
PD: 69/256
Lega: 39/256
FdI: 31/256
M5S: 18/256
FI: 12/256
IV: 6 (4 in Campania, 2 in Tuscany)
UDC: 2 (Campania and Marche)
Europa Verde: 2 (Veneto and Campania)
+Europa: 1 (Campania)

Zaia' civic list got 24 seats in Veneto (plus the President seat), Toti' Cambiamo list got 8 seats in Liguria (plus the President seat), De Luca' civic list got 6 seats in Campania (12 parties got seats inside of the coalition).

Aosta Valley (compared to current Regional Council)
Lega 11 (+4)
Valdostan Union 7 (+2)
Civic Progressive Project (PD, Rete Civica and Verdi) 7 (+5)
Valdostan Alliance-Stella Alpina-Italia Viva 4 (-5)
United Aosta Valley (Mouv'-Ensemble) 3 (=)
For the Autonomy 3 (new)

Centre-right (FI-FdI) and Rinascimento lists came shortly to surpass the local threshold and failed to gain seats.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 24, 2020, 02:09:02 AM
Campania
Centre-left: 33 seats (+2)
Centre-right: 11 seats (-2)
M5S: 7 seats (=)

....so De Luca's coalition somehow got a smaller share of the seats than his share of the vote. What kind of imbecile wrote this electoral law??


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on September 24, 2020, 12:02:52 PM
Okay I really don't get the argument for "no" on the referendum. Anything more than 300 representatives or so seems absurd. What's the point of having all of them?

300 representatives can't possibly "represent" jack sh*t in a country of 60 million inhabitants. I mean, granted, it's not like 600 representatives were doing a great job to begin with, but this will just make it worse.

That's 1/200,000 residents. Which is absolutely fine. I'd target one rep per 200,000-500,000 people as ideal in most countries. Places like the UK, with more than one MP/100,000 people are just absurd.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 24, 2020, 12:13:39 PM
To continue the points Battista and Palandio made, here's a comparison of Toti's scores in 2015 and 2020:
+22 in Imperia province (43% to 65%)
+19 in Savona province (40% to 59%)
+24 in Genoa city (28% to 52%)
+22 in Genoa province, city excluded (37% to 59%)
+18 in La Spezia province (33% to 51%)

So yeah, here as well there's been a stronger trend in Genoa proper than anywhere else. My guess would be that this was all about the bridge reconstruction, yeah. It's really frustrating, but I guess not particularly surprising. Oh well. Glad to see that La Spezia is still the most left-wing province! I guess this does bode reasonably well for the future.

I don't know what that bodes for the future to be honest except that I am happy because, you know, I live in La Spezia. In theory one would want Genoa to be the most left-wing because Genoa is where the most votes are found.

One thing I had not mentioned is that it's pretty telling (and sad) that the ciTy cEnTre bOurGeoIs precincts where as I said Toti won were very weak for Yes (and at least one voted No), while Communist <3 Pitelli where as I said Sansa got a landslide were >75% for Yes (and the same can be said for another village, Biassa, precinct no. 48).


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 24, 2020, 12:18:29 PM
That's 1/200,000 residents. Which is absolutely fine. I'd target one rep per 200,000-500,000 people as ideal in most countries. Places like the UK, with more than one MP/100,000 people are just absurd.

Italy and Great Britain do not have federal systems of government. Both countries also draw their ministries from the legislature.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 24, 2020, 12:37:59 PM
Okay I really don't get the argument for "no" on the referendum. Anything more than 300 representatives or so seems absurd. What's the point of having all of them?

300 representatives can't possibly "represent" jack sh*t in a country of 60 million inhabitants. I mean, granted, it's not like 600 representatives were doing a great job to begin with, but this will just make it worse.

That's 1/200,000 residents. Which is absolutely fine. I'd target one rep per 200,000-500,000 people as ideal in most countries. Places like the UK, with more than one MP/100,000 people are just absurd.

You know that's funny, seeing Blairite of all posters taking the muh rash populist position. If GMac comes here too arguing for Yes we may as well lock the thread lmao.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on September 24, 2020, 12:49:17 PM
Okay I really don't get the argument for "no" on the referendum. Anything more than 300 representatives or so seems absurd. What's the point of having all of them?

300 representatives can't possibly "represent" jack sh*t in a country of 60 million inhabitants. I mean, granted, it's not like 600 representatives were doing a great job to begin with, but this will just make it worse.

That's 1/200,000 residents. Which is absolutely fine. I'd target one rep per 200,000-500,000 people as ideal in most countries. Places like the UK, with more than one MP/100,000 people are just absurd.

You know that's funny, seeing Blairite of all posters taking the muh rash populist position. If GMac comes here too arguing for No we may as well lock the thread lmao.

I don't really care about whether or not the crazies in the five star movement agree with me for whatever reason. What I do care about is creating an efficient, functional legislature and imo that's usually easier when there are fewer members.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on September 24, 2020, 12:50:51 PM
That's 1/200,000 residents. Which is absolutely fine. I'd target one rep per 200,000-500,000 people as ideal in most countries. Places like the UK, with more than one MP/100,000 people are just absurd.

Italy and Great Britain do not have federal systems of government. Both countries also draw their ministries from the legislature.

True. That doesn't mean the extra hundred backbenchers actually help the government do anything.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 24, 2020, 01:09:54 PM
Not surprising that a neoliberal would oppose effective local representation. One rep for 500,000 people? lololol


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 24, 2020, 01:16:50 PM
Eh Italy is fine with 400 MPs. It's not like that is an insanely small number. Maybe Italy might need slightly more than that (I'd personally go with 450 or 500) but it's not that small.

Especially when Italy uses Party List PR and presumably individual MPs are essencially mindless drones. You could replace the parliament with as little as 7 MPs (the 7 party leaders from each of the main parties) if you introduced weighted voting.

And like others said, unicameralism would be a plus for Italy, as the Senate is very much redundant (now if it got elected by region then sure). At the very least the Senate should not be able to veto a PM (I am fine with it vetoing bills though).


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 24, 2020, 01:18:25 PM
Okay I really don't get the argument for "no" on the referendum. Anything more than 300 representatives or so seems absurd. What's the point of having all of them?

300 representatives can't possibly "represent" jack sh*t in a country of 60 million inhabitants. I mean, granted, it's not like 600 representatives were doing a great job to begin with, but this will just make it worse.

That's 1/200,000 residents. Which is absolutely fine. I'd target one rep per 200,000-500,000 people as ideal in most countries. Places like the UK, with more than one MP/100,000 people are just absurd.

You know that's funny, seeing Blairite of all posters taking the muh rash populist position. If GMac comes here too arguing for No we may as well lock the thread lmao.

He is an avowed neoliberal, the "Downsizing Democracy" ideology par excellence. I'm not surprised.

But no, 1 MP for 200K people is not nearly enough. Even 1 per 100K is not enough. The ideal would be 1 every 1000 or so (which is of course impracticable in Italy, but there's no excuse for not having 600-700 MPs at the very least).


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 24, 2020, 01:27:10 PM
Okay I really don't get the argument for "no" on the referendum. Anything more than 300 representatives or so seems absurd. What's the point of having all of them?

300 representatives can't possibly "represent" jack sh*t in a country of 60 million inhabitants. I mean, granted, it's not like 600 representatives were doing a great job to begin with, but this will just make it worse.

That's 1/200,000 residents. Which is absolutely fine. I'd target one rep per 200,000-500,000 people as ideal in most countries. Places like the UK, with more than one MP/100,000 people are just absurd.

You know that's funny, seeing Blairite of all posters taking the muh rash populist position. If GMac comes here too arguing for No we may as well lock the thread lmao.

He is an avowed neoliberal, the "Downsizing Democracy" ideology par excellence. I'm not surprised.

But no, 1 MP for 200K people is not nearly enough. Even 1 per 100K is not enough. The ideal would be 1 every 1000 or so (which is of course impracticable in Italy, but there's no excuse for not having 600-700 MPs at the very least).

I mean I get why you are not surprised, but I found that ironic because I guess the closest Italian equivalent to neoliberals is the muh city centre bobo "PD is the party of ZTL's" crowd and they went pretty hard for No.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 24, 2020, 01:34:04 PM
Okay I really don't get the argument for "no" on the referendum. Anything more than 300 representatives or so seems absurd. What's the point of having all of them?

300 representatives can't possibly "represent" jack sh*t in a country of 60 million inhabitants. I mean, granted, it's not like 600 representatives were doing a great job to begin with, but this will just make it worse.

That's 1/200,000 residents. Which is absolutely fine. I'd target one rep per 200,000-500,000 people as ideal in most countries. Places like the UK, with more than one MP/100,000 people are just absurd.

You know that's funny, seeing Blairite of all posters taking the muh rash populist position. If GMac comes here too arguing for No we may as well lock the thread lmao.

He is an avowed neoliberal, the "Downsizing Democracy" ideology par excellence. I'm not surprised.

But no, 1 MP for 200K people is not nearly enough. Even 1 per 100K is not enough. The ideal would be 1 every 1000 or so (which is of course impracticable in Italy, but there's no excuse for not having 600-700 MPs at the very least).

I mean I get why you are not surprised, but I found that ironic because I guess the closest Italian equivalent to neoliberals is the muh city centre bobo "PD is the party of ZTL's" crowd and they went pretty hard for No.

The Italian liberal center still has more reverence for old-fashioned concepts of democratic representation. It has fully been neoliberalized when it comes to economics, but still holds a bit more of a traditionalist bent based on the values of the 1948 constitution. By contrast, American (and British, and honestly, probably the French too) neoliberals couldn't give less of a sh*t about meaningful democratic representation. To them, democracy just means voters get to "buy" a government as a product and get to passively "consume" the policies for the rest of the term.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 24, 2020, 03:44:51 PM
fwiw the cube root "rule" would give the Italian population an ideal legislature size of about 392 members.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: MaxQue on September 24, 2020, 03:55:51 PM
Okay I really don't get the argument for "no" on the referendum. Anything more than 300 representatives or so seems absurd. What's the point of having all of them?

300 representatives can't possibly "represent" jack sh*t in a country of 60 million inhabitants. I mean, granted, it's not like 600 representatives were doing a great job to begin with, but this will just make it worse.

That's 1/200,000 residents. Which is absolutely fine. I'd target one rep per 200,000-500,000 people as ideal in most countries. Places like the UK, with more than one MP/100,000 people are just absurd.

You know that's funny, seeing Blairite of all posters taking the muh rash populist position. If GMac comes here too arguing for No we may as well lock the thread lmao.

I don't really care about whether or not the crazies in the five star movement agree with me for whatever reason. What I do care about is creating an efficient, functional legislature and imo that's usually easier when there are fewer members.

Thank you Bankerite to tell us again and again what the technocrats want.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on September 24, 2020, 04:20:18 PM
Watching everyone flip out over my position and try to ascribe an ideological value to it is entertaining but also ridiculous. I definitely don't decide my opinions on Italian referendums based on what all the "centrist technocrats blah blah blah" are saying.

I just don't get the point of having 600 rather than 400 MPs. This is particularly funny considering many of my detractors presumably support PR while I always support geographic constituencies for the very specific reason of promoting local representation.

But when you talk about national legislatures in countries with any serious population, local representation means representing the interests of Puglia or Liguria or the entire city of Milan, not neighborhood-level constituencies. If you instituted a runoff system, I actually think the U.S. house is the model legislature. The implication of this, then, is that districts of 150,000 people or 200,000 people or 400,000 people are basically the same because they operate on the regional basis--not the local basis. Therefore, the most relevant question is which district size allows the operation of the legislature itself to be most efficient.

I think it's clear that the answer to that is a legislature of 300-400 people at most allows each member to have a relevant impact on policy and still allow effective and convenient coalition building. Beyond that point, each additional member doesn't actually help the body do anything.

Also, Antonio, your example of 1 rep/1,000 people is insane. That would be dumb on the municipal level, let alone the national level. In my neighborhood, that's like 1 United States representative/2.5 apartment buildings. Do you really not see how having 0.1% of an entire country's population serving full-time in national-level government would be problematic? That would mean like 1 out of every 50 people in the world are involved in politics on a professional level. It clearly wouldn't work.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: parochial boy on September 24, 2020, 04:43:27 PM
There's no reason a system with PR can't also have geographical representation. I dare say that most forms of PR use some form of regional constituency, be it the German MMP format or the multi-member constituencies you get in the likes of Spain or Switzerland or Sweden (albeit with top-ups in that case). The advantage of the latter form is that you are considerably more likely to also have a local representative who you actually voted for, and therefore probably more responsive to your concerns. So, you know, a PSOE supporter in Salamanca still has a PSOE deputy representating them. Good luck with that if you're a Democrat in Tulsa.

And I suspect most of those posting in this thread would agree that the US has a uniquely, um, awful system of generally failing to function as a representative democracy


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 24, 2020, 04:45:58 PM
fwiw the cube root "rule" would give the Italian population an ideal legislature size of about 392 members.

If you use the "Wyoming rule", which I prefer as it's not as arbitrary, you get 477 seats.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 24, 2020, 04:48:56 PM
I actually think the U.S. house is the model legislature.

Ah yes, the famously ideal US legislature. Where you need to raise millions of dollars just to be competitive.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on September 24, 2020, 04:50:20 PM
There's no reason a system with PR can't also have geographical representation. I dare say that most forms of PR use some form of regional constituency, be it the German MMP format or the multi-member constituencies you get in the likes of Spain or Switzerland or Sweden (albeit with top-ups in that case). The advantage of the latter form is that you are considerably more likely to also have a local representative who you actually voted for, and therefore probably more responsive to your concerns. So, you know, a PSOE supporter in Salamanca still has a PSOE deputy representating them. Good luck with that if you're a Democrat in Tulsa.

I get that, but I still don't think it's ideal.

Basically in electoral politics, you can come of with a model that forces coalition building at the ballot box or coalition building in smoke-filled rooms. By having single member districts with a runoff system, the voters as a bloc choose which of the top two candidates they want to represent them in parliament--basically, what the French do.

The usual outcome of this, of course, is that a single party that receives a minority of first-round votes but an overwhelming majority of second round votes has the mandate to lead a government directly from the people. In my view, a system like this forms a government that most people are at least somewhat happy with which seems more democratic than having party leaders hash some convoluted coalition out after facing the voters.

In a multi-party system, many of those Democrats in Tulsa may not have a local liberal representative, but at least they elect someone they can ultimately get behind. I'd rather that than having one liberal representing the whole state of Oklahoma that probably isn't part of any government on the national level.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on September 24, 2020, 04:53:00 PM
I actually think the U.S. house is the model legislature.

Ah yes, the famously ideal US legislature. Where you need to raise millions of dollars just to be competitive.

I'm obviously talking about the general size of districts, the fact that it uses districts rather than PR, and the rules governing the body--not the electoral process itself. Campaign finance law is, of course, not inherently attached to one form of national legislature.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on September 24, 2020, 05:04:35 PM
fwiw the cube root "rule" would give the Italian population an ideal legislature size of about 392 members.

If you use the "Wyoming rule", which I prefer as it's not as arbitrary, you get 477 seats.

I suppose in this case, it would be called the Aosta rule. Regardless, I think it's clear that under most normal reapportionment guidelines 500+ seats is excessive.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: parochial boy on September 24, 2020, 05:36:44 PM
There's no reason a system with PR can't also have geographical representation. I dare say that most forms of PR use some form of regional constituency, be it the German MMP format or the multi-member constituencies you get in the likes of Spain or Switzerland or Sweden (albeit with top-ups in that case). The advantage of the latter form is that you are considerably more likely to also have a local representative who you actually voted for, and therefore probably more responsive to your concerns. So, you know, a PSOE supporter in Salamanca still has a PSOE deputy representating them. Good luck with that if you're a Democrat in Tulsa.

I get that, but I still don't think it's ideal.

Basically in electoral politics, you can come of with a model that forces coalition building at the ballot box or coalition building in smoke-filled rooms. By having single member districts with a runoff system, the voters as a bloc choose which of the top two candidates they want to represent them in parliament--basically, what the French do.

The usual outcome of this, of course, is that a single party that receives a minority of first-round votes but an overwhelming majority of second round votes has the mandate to lead a government directly from the people. In my view, a system like this forms a government that most people are at least somewhat happy with which seems more democratic than having party leaders hash some convoluted coalition out after facing the voters.

In a multi-party system, many of those Democrats in Tulsa may not have a local liberal representative, but at least they elect someone they can ultimately get behind. I'd rather that than having one liberal representing the whole state of Oklahoma that probably isn't part of any government on the national level.

Erm, overall I would far prefer a government agenda to be set based on the input of a legislature representing a cross-section of opinions that are broadly refelctive of society as a whole. I would find that eminently more democratic than a party being able to push its entire policy agenda through unopposed on the basis that a plurality of the population deemed it the least worse option. I think the first is an eminently more democratic practice.

I mean, the satisfaction of the French in their political leaders is uniquely low. That is in no small part due to the fact their system was designed essentially to the advantage of one man who quite popular 50 years ago.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 24, 2020, 06:45:07 PM
In practice the old Italian electoral system - the one used before 1994 - did allow for local representation, because it used open lists. Candidates would tend to focus their efforts on particular parts of the constituency that they ran in (these were huge) and if they were elected would concentrate constituency services in them as well. This extended to nationally prominent politicians: indeed, it was rather difficult to progress far in the DC without having a secure geographical base. So, Giulio Andreotti, who regularly topped the DC poll in the Rome-Viterbo-Latina-Frosinone constituency, always focused his efforts on the towns of the Valle Latina to the east of the city, rather than on the capital itself.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 25, 2020, 01:19:40 AM
In practice the old Italian electoral system - the one used before 1994 - did allow for local representation, because it used open lists. Candidates would tend to focus their efforts on particular parts of the constituency that they ran in (these were huge) and if they were elected would concentrate constituency services in them as well. This extended to nationally prominent politicians: indeed, it was rather difficult to progress far in the DC without having a secure geographical base. So, Giulio Andreotti, who regularly topped the DC poll in the Rome-Viterbo-Latina-Frosinone constituency, always focused his efforts on the towns of the Valle Latina to the east of the city, rather than on the capital itself.

Yes. One of the main problems of the last national electoral law, and of the previous one, is that they don't allow for preference voting, which creates all sorts of problems.
Whereas European Parliament uses open lists (three preference votes) and I think almost all regions do (it probably depends - in Liguria there are two votes).
Sadly a sizable chunk of voters do not care about expressing preference votes even when they can, though.
Of course, well, European Parliament constituencies are HUGE, so at that level there is a bit of luck involved (like, I wouldn't be surprised if there were currently 0 MEPs from Basilicata). I guess I am lucky because there is a MEP from La Spezia - whom I voted for by the way.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2020, 02:20:52 AM
To me, the ideal electoral system would be PR in small constituencies (5-10 seats) with preference voting and a tiered compensation system like Denmark's to ensure overall national proportionality. I would ideally still hope for no more than 10k people per constituency, but of course that wouldn't be feasible in Italy. You could have at most probably 150 constituencies (for a parliament of around 1000) which would therefore represent around 400k people, and hopefully within those constituencies some degree of local representation. That would be far from perfect, but probably the best we can get right now.

Of course I would get rid of the Senate, so 1000 total MPs wouldn't be much of an increase from the 950 or so we currently have. Having them work together in a single house would require logistical changes, but Italy already has a strong committee system, so the infrastructure is already there.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: MaxQue on September 28, 2020, 02:30:31 PM
In practice the old Italian electoral system - the one used before 1994 - did allow for local representation, because it used open lists. Candidates would tend to focus their efforts on particular parts of the constituency that they ran in (these were huge) and if they were elected would concentrate constituency services in them as well. This extended to nationally prominent politicians: indeed, it was rather difficult to progress far in the DC without having a secure geographical base. So, Giulio Andreotti, who regularly topped the DC poll in the Rome-Viterbo-Latina-Frosinone constituency, always focused his efforts on the towns of the Valle Latina to the east of the city, rather than on the capital itself.

Yes. One of the main problems of the last national electoral law, and of the previous one, is that they don't allow for preference voting, which creates all sorts of problems.
Whereas European Parliament uses open lists (three preference votes) and I think almost all regions do (it probably depends - in Liguria there are two votes).
Sadly a sizable chunk of voters do not care about expressing preference votes even when they can, though.
Of course, well, European Parliament constituencies are HUGE, so at that level there is a bit of luck involved (like, I wouldn't be surprised if there were currently 0 MEPs from Basilicata). I guess I am lucky because there is a MEP from La Spezia - whom I voted for by the way.

There is an MEP form Basilicata

Count by region:
Lombardy: 16
Lazio: 13
Campania: 8
Sicily: 8
Veneto: 7
Emilia-Romagna: 5
Puglia: 5
Piemont: 3
Tuscany: 3
Friuli Venezia Giulia: 2
Liguria: 2
Basilicata: 1
Calabria: 1
Molise: 1
Sudtirol: 1

0 for Aosta, Umbria, Marche, Abruzzi and Sardinia.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 28, 2020, 02:41:09 PM
There is an MEP form Basilicata

Count by region:
Lombardy: 16
Lazio: 13
Campania: 8
Sicily: 8
Veneto: 7
Emilia-Romagna: 5
Puglia: 5
Piemont: 3
Tuscany: 3
Friuli Venezia Giulia: 2
Liguria: 2
Basilicata: 1
Calabria: 1
Molise: 1
Sudtirol: 1

0 for Aosta, Umbria, Marche, Abruzzi and Sardinia.

Thanks for the research!

Well my point still stands (and even stands more, given that Umbria, Marche, Abruzzo and Sardinia have all larger populations than Basilicata).

Sardinia in particular kind of has it up the wazoo because the Islands constituency has only 8 seats, which means parties get at most 2 seats unless they make total slam dunks (by Italian standards), and Sicily having triple the inhabitants of Sardinia makes it very easy for the top Sardinian to be third of the list or so i.e. not elected.
I'd say the other constituencies work better though.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 29, 2020, 03:32:12 PM
Map Time!

Italian Constitutional Referendum 2020 - Provinces

()


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 29, 2020, 03:52:04 PM
Italian Regional Elections September 2020 - Provinces

[margins of victory]

()


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 29, 2020, 07:48:22 PM
Fantastic maps, thank you!

Interesting to see No's strength in triveneto (aside from the Austrians) but not in the rest of the North, even in very right-wing areas. Not surprising that Yes' strongest areas were in the South, but some of the patterns within the South are interesting (weaker around the Gulf of Taranto and the Strait of Messina, stronger in more inland areas).


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 30, 2020, 05:51:29 AM
Fantastic maps, thank you!

Interesting to see No's strength in triveneto (aside from the Austrians) but not in the rest of the North, even in very right-wing areas. Not surprising that Yes' strongest areas were in the South, but some of the patterns within the South are interesting (weaker around the Gulf of Taranto and the Strait of Messina, stronger in more inland areas).

Thanks!

Some other interesting things I noticed are:
Yes getting more in MI than in RM (whereas my gut feeling would associate Milan to muh "central" liberal big city more than Rome);
the almost zero correlation between left vs right leaning and Yes vs No strength in the Red regions and especially Emilia-Romagna (given that they normally have the most clear-cut and possibly the most polarized political geography);
the anti-Southernization of Sardinia (Yes getting only 61% in CA? wtf).

I also didn't expect such a sharp fault line where the South begins (which incidentally is also where M5S begins - and Lega fades), and Liguria is funny in that it almost seems like a displaced piece of Triveneto.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 30, 2020, 09:26:44 AM
Italian Regional Elections September 2020 - Provinces

[margins of victory]

()

That's a *lot* of narrow right wing wins (or am I actually misreading it?)


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 30, 2020, 09:33:30 AM
Italian Regional Elections September 2020 - Provinces

[margins of victory]


That's a *lot* of narrow right wing wins (or am I actually misreading it?)

It depends on what you mean.
There were seven provinces carried by the centre-right candidate with a single-digit margin:
La Spezia in Liguria by Toti.
Massa e Carrara, Pistoia, Arezzo, Grosseto in Tuscany by Ceccardi.
Pesaro e Urbino in Marche by Acquaroli.
Brindisi in Apulia by Fitto.

Coincidentally there were also seven provinces carried by the centre-left candidate with a single-digit margin.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 30, 2020, 11:33:34 AM
So all those very light blue places actually didn't vote?


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 30, 2020, 01:54:53 PM
So all those very light blue places actually didn't vote?

You mean the light grey places? Lol

Yes, they were regions which had no regional election this cycle.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 30, 2020, 01:59:45 PM
So all those very light blue places actually didn't vote?

You mean the light grey places? Lol

Yes, they were regions which had no regional election this cycle.

Blue-Grey colorblindness is a thing...


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 01, 2020, 08:02:36 AM
So all those very light blue places actually didn't vote?

You mean the light grey places? Lol

Yes, they were regions which had no regional election this cycle.

Many would genuinely describe that as light blue-grey, tbf ;)

So what is the dark grey bit in the NW corner?


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 01, 2020, 08:06:46 AM
So all those very light blue places actually didn't vote?

You mean the light grey places? Lol

Yes, they were regions which had no regional election this cycle.

Many would genuinely describe that as light blue-grey, tbf ;)

So what is the dark grey bit in the NW corner?

Valle d'Aosta, which I left "N/A" because 1. the president of the region is not directly elected 2. there are strong regionalist parties which make for a different political system than the rest of Italy.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 01, 2020, 03:52:10 PM
So all those very light blue places actually didn't vote?

You mean the light grey places? Lol

Yes, they were regions which had no regional election this cycle.

Many would genuinely describe that as light blue-grey, tbf ;)

So what is the dark grey bit in the NW corner?

Valle d'Aosta, which I left "N/A" because 1. the president of the region is not directly elected 2. there are strong regionalist parties which make for a different political system than the rest of Italy.

Plus it's plain old PR, without coalitions. Lega topped the polls there for what it's worth, but with just 23%.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 01, 2020, 04:28:14 PM
So all those very light blue places actually didn't vote?

You mean the light grey places? Lol

Yes, they were regions which had no regional election this cycle.

Many would genuinely describe that as light blue-grey, tbf ;)

So what is the dark grey bit in the NW corner?

Valle d'Aosta, which I left "N/A" because 1. the president of the region is not directly elected 2. there are strong regionalist parties which make for a different political system than the rest of Italy.

Plus it's plain old PR, without coalitions. Lega topped the polls there for what it's worth, but with just 23%.

Yes exactly. It's just incommensurable with the other regions. I wonder what kind of coalition will the new Aosta Valley regional government have.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Andrea on October 05, 2020, 03:03:20 PM
Mayoral run-offs held yesterday and today.

Results in main towns ("capoluoghi di provincia", provincial capitals)

CR=centre-right; CL=centre-left

Arezzo: CR (incumbent) 54.5% CL 46.5% HOLD
Lecco: CL 50.1% CR 49.9% HOLD by 31 votes. (10,978 vs 10,947)
Reggio Calabria: CL (incumbent) 58.4% CR 41.6%. HOLD
Matera: 5 Stars 67.3% CR 32.4% GAIN FROM INDY
Crotone: Local 64% CR 36%. GAIN
Chieti: CL 55.8% CR 44.2% GAIN
Andria: CL 58.9% M5S 41.1%. GAIN
Aosta: CL 53.3% Rinascimento 46.7%. HOLD
Bolzano: CL 57.2% CR 42.8% (SVP backed CL in the run off)


Main towns with mayor elected on first round 2 weeks ago:

Macerata: CR 52.8% CL 32.6%. Gain from CL (incumbent term-limited)
Mantova: CL (incumbent) 70.7% CR 22.1%
Venezia: CR (incumbent)54.1% CL 29.3%
Fermo: Independent (incumbent) 71.4% CL 14.8% Lega 10.2%
Trento: CL 54.7% CR 30.2%. CL incumbent stood down
Trani: CL (incumbent) 65.4% CR 16.1%


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 05, 2020, 03:12:56 PM
Mayoral run-offs held yesterday and today.

Results in main towns ("capoluoghi di provincia", provincial capitals)

CR=centre-right; CL=centre-left

Arezzo: CR (incumbent) 54.5% CL 46.5% HOLD
Lecco: CL 50.1% CR 49.9% HOLD by 31 votes. (10,978 vs 10,947)
Reggio Calabria: CL (incumbent) 58.4% CR 41.6%. HOLD
Matera: 5 Stars 67.3% CR 32.4% GAIN FROM INDY
Crotone: Local 64% CR 36%. GAIN
Chieti: CL 55.8% CR 44.2% GAIN
Andria: CL 58.9% M5S 41.1%. GAIN
Aosta: CL 53.3% Rinascimento 46.7%. HOLD
Bolzano: CL 57.2% CR 42.8% (SVP backed CL in the run off)

Lecco lol N U T nailbiter.
Is a recount allowed?

Chieti gain for the centre-left is really the last thing I was expecting.

SVP backing the centre-left in Bolzano is good, but why? It's a break from the last two years where they have shifted to backing the centre-right.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Andrea on October 05, 2020, 03:44:23 PM
Mayoral run-offs held yesterday and today.

Results in main towns ("capoluoghi di provincia", provincial capitals)

CR=centre-right; CL=centre-left

Arezzo: CR (incumbent) 54.5% CL 46.5% HOLD
Lecco: CL 50.1% CR 49.9% HOLD by 31 votes. (10,978 vs 10,947)
Reggio Calabria: CL (incumbent) 58.4% CR 41.6%. HOLD
Matera: 5 Stars 67.3% CR 32.4% GAIN FROM INDY
Crotone: Local 64% CR 36%. GAIN
Chieti: CL 55.8% CR 44.2% GAIN
Andria: CL 58.9% M5S 41.1%. GAIN
Aosta: CL 53.3% Rinascimento 46.7%. HOLD
Bolzano: CL 57.2% CR 42.8% (SVP backed CL in the run off)

Lecco lol N U T nailbiter.
Is a recount allowed?

Chieti gain for the centre-left is really the last thing I was expecting.

SVP backing the centre-left in Bolzano is good, but why? It's a break from the last two years where they have shifted to backing the centre-right.

Disputed ballots in Lecco are 15.
Local electoral commission will have now to officially declare the results. They will go through all the "verbali" from polling stations, re-doing the additions.

I remember some places with recounts in the past. Candidates need to ask for them to TAR or Consiglio di stato. I saw some places where the recount was granted one year after the election.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 05, 2020, 03:47:42 PM
Mayoral run-offs held yesterday and today.

Results in main towns ("capoluoghi di provincia", provincial capitals)

CR=centre-right; CL=centre-left

Arezzo: CR (incumbent) 54.5% CL 46.5% HOLD
Lecco: CL 50.1% CR 49.9% HOLD by 31 votes. (10,978 vs 10,947)
Reggio Calabria: CL (incumbent) 58.4% CR 41.6%. HOLD
Matera: 5 Stars 67.3% CR 32.4% GAIN FROM INDY
Crotone: Local 64% CR 36%. GAIN
Chieti: CL 55.8% CR 44.2% GAIN
Andria: CL 58.9% M5S 41.1%. GAIN
Aosta: CL 53.3% Rinascimento 46.7%. HOLD
Bolzano: CL 57.2% CR 42.8% (SVP backed CL in the run off)

Lecco lol N U T nailbiter.
Is a recount allowed?

Chieti gain for the centre-left is really the last thing I was expecting.

SVP backing the centre-left in Bolzano is good, but why? It's a break from the last two years where they have shifted to backing the centre-right.

Disputed ballots in Lecco are 15.
Local electoral commission will have now to officially declare the results. They will go through all the "verbali" from polling stations, re-doing the additions.

I remember some places with recounts in the past. Candidates need to ask for them to TAR or Consiglio di stato. I saw some places where the recount was granted one year after the election.

There is a Senate constituency in Emilia-Romagna where the 2018 result was overturned by a recount in SUMMER 2019.


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 06, 2020, 01:20:38 AM
Wow, yeah, surprisingly good results for the left. And proof that the M5S-PD alliance can work in some cases (although it's still to be seen if it's nationally viable). That's nice to see. Let's hope the government doesn't squander all its political capital by being unable to do anything for the next 3 years... (I know, fat chance)

and lmao @ the glacial pace of the Italian judiciary


Title: Re: Italian Regional Elections and Constitutional Referendum (Sept. 20-21)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 15, 2020, 06:14:58 AM
Jole Santelli, President of Calabria, died last night. She was only 51 years old. She was suffering from a cancer.
RIP
https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2020/10/15/news/calabria_muore_la_presidente_jole_santelli-270629214



It is the first time since regional presidents are directly elected that one of them dies in office... so there are no precedents for this, but apparently the regional law states that new elections must be held within a couple months.
So Antonio you may change the thread title.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 16, 2020, 01:10:38 AM
Changed the title to the general mood of the day. Will update it when we have a confirmed date for the Calabria election (it's quite possible it will get delayed given how bad the situation is getting).

As for Santelli, I'm sorry to see her go this way. Her bio makes her sound like your standard Berlusconi hack, but that obviously doesn't mean she deserved this, and on a personal level she was apparently quite friendly. Rest in peace.

In general news, yep, the second wave is on. I'll have updated charts of how bad things are getting at some point next week, but in terms of case growth we've gone all the way back to the  darkest hours of March-April (thankfully, the growth in hospitalizations is far slower, but they're still starting to severely stress the healthcare systems of some regions).

Legendary Badass Vincenzo De Luca, whose region is the second worst hit (the worst is once again Lombardy), has taken action and decided to close down schools and universities. Obviously he's getting criticized by the feckless clowns who run the national government, but I'm sure he'll answer in kind during his weekly briefing tomorrow. He continues to prove he's one of the few politicians in this country who has what it takes to save his constinuents' lives.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 16, 2020, 05:59:27 AM
Changed the title to the general mood of the day. Will update it when we have a confirmed date for the Calabria election (it's quite possible it will get delayed given how bad the situation is getting).

As for Santelli, I'm sorry to see her go this way. Her bio makes her sound like your standard Berlusconi hack, but that obviously doesn't mean she deserved this, and on a personal level she was apparently quite friendly. Rest in peace.

In general news, yep, the second wave is on. I'll have updated charts of how bad things are getting at some point next week, but in terms of case growth we've gone all the way back to the  darkest hours of March-April (thankfully, the growth in hospitalizations is far slower, but they're still starting to severely stress the healthcare systems of some regions).

Legendary Badass Vincenzo De Luca, whose region is the second worst hit (the worst is once again Lombardy), has taken action and decided to close down schools and universities. Obviously he's getting criticized by the feckless clowns who run the national government, but I'm sure he'll answer in kind during his weekly briefing tomorrow. He continues to prove he's one of the few politicians in this country who has what it takes to save his constinuents' lives.

The Virgin Attilio Fontana vs. The Chad Vincenzo De Luca


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 21, 2020, 07:24:50 PM
(yesterday a friend of mine sent me an article according to which Ceccardi hosted a wake by an anti-gay tradcath group and was accused of not registering civil unions during her term as mayor)

Yesterday Nathan wrote this - I am not sure he had Ceccardi in mind but I actually think it fits her well.
"political Catholicism is when you're right-wing; the more right-wing you are, the more Catholic it is :)" nonsense-mongering

> Was accused of not registering civil unions
> So much a defender of the traditional family that she lives with her partner but they are not married or anything

> https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=405839.0

Ayy lmao

CONDOLENCES! AGAIN!


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 21, 2020, 09:13:17 PM
(yesterday a friend of mine sent me an article according to which Ceccardi hosted a wake by an anti-gay tradcath group and was accused of not registering civil unions during her term as mayor)

Yesterday Nathan wrote this - I am not sure he had Ceccardi in mind but I actually think it fits her well.
"political Catholicism is when you're right-wing; the more right-wing you are, the more Catholic it is :)" nonsense-mongering

> Was accused of not registering civil unions
> So much a defender of the traditional family that she lives with her partner but they are not married or anything

> https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=405839.0

Ayy lmao

CONDOLENCES! AGAIN!

CHECKMATE CATTOLEGHISTI 8)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on October 21, 2020, 09:14:29 PM
(yesterday a friend of mine sent me an article according to which Ceccardi hosted a wake by an anti-gay tradcath group and was accused of not registering civil unions during her term as mayor)

Yesterday Nathan wrote this - I am not sure he had Ceccardi in mind but I actually think it fits her well.
"political Catholicism is when you're right-wing; the more right-wing you are, the more Catholic it is :)" nonsense-mongering

> Was accused of not registering civil unions
> So much a defender of the traditional family that she lives with her partner but they are not married or anything

> https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=405839.0

Ayy lmao

CONDOLENCES! AGAIN!

CHECKMATE CATTOLEGHISTI 8)

The Virgin Susanna Ceccardi and the Chad Dunstan Thompson (https://hudsonreview.com/2015/05/two-poets-named-dunstan-thompson/#.X5Dq-e0pDIU)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 22, 2020, 05:48:17 AM
(yesterday a friend of mine sent me an article according to which Ceccardi hosted a wake by an anti-gay tradcath group and was accused of not registering civil unions during her term as mayor)

Yesterday Nathan wrote this - I am not sure he had Ceccardi in mind but I actually think it fits her well.
"political Catholicism is when you're right-wing; the more right-wing you are, the more Catholic it is :)" nonsense-mongering

> Was accused of not registering civil unions
> So much a defender of the traditional family that she lives with her partner but they are not married or anything

> https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=405839.0

Ayy lmao

CONDOLENCES! AGAIN!

CHECKMATE CATTOLEGHISTI 8)

The Virgin Susanna Ceccardi and the Chad Dunstan Thompson (https://hudsonreview.com/2015/05/two-poets-named-dunstan-thompson/#.X5Dq-e0pDIU)

Not to mention that her former deputy mayor has lost the municipal election and Cascina is governed by the centre-left again now.
CONGRATS CATTOLEGHISTI! YOU LOST THRICE!


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 30, 2020, 02:51:01 PM
Since I am a numbers man and not a news man, I won't talk about the (potential or actual) new restrictions or the galloping coronavirus cases, but instead I finally tabulated together the list votes across all the regions which voted on September, and here is the result.

LIST VOTES

PD: 19.8%
Lega: 14%
FdI: 10.6%
Zaia's list: 10.2% hot f[inks]
M5S: 7.5%
FI: 5.4%
IV: 3.5%
De Luca's list: 3.5%
Green Europe: 2%
Toti's list: 1.6%
Fitto's list: 1.6%
Extreme left: 1.5%
Emiliano's list: 1.2%
[I didn't tabulate separately smaller ones]
Unclassifiable and/or tiny centre-left lists*: a whopping 14%
Unclassifiable and/or tiny centre-right lists: 2.1%
Everything else**: 1.6%

SUMMING UP BY IDEOLOGICAL AREA

Centre-right: 45.5%
Basic centre-left: 40.5%
M5S: 7.5%
IV: 3.5%
Everything else: 3.1%

*I put pretty much all the fluffy lists with fluffy names and no correspondence to known parties that spawned in Campania and Apulia there.
**Including all those regional Aosta Valley parties, whose numbers are extremely tiny on a national scale.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 02, 2020, 11:37:50 AM
Well since this would get a lot of "who dat?" in reply if I posted it on Off-Topic Board, and since there is not a separate thread for Italian General Discussion, I will post this here:

RIP Absolute Legend Gigi Proietti :(

https://www.repubblica.it/spettacoli/people/2020/11/02/news/morto_gigi_proietti-272698267

This is really saddening, I think he was my favourite living Italian actor. Fittingly for someone born on the Day of the Dead, he died on his (80th) birthday...



Today is also the 45th anniversary of Pier Paolo Pasolini's death. Pasolini strikes me as someone who must be a favourite of threadmaster Antonio.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 03, 2020, 01:52:14 AM
Well since this would get a lot of "who dat?" in reply if I posted it on Off-Topic Board, and since there is not a separate thread for Italian General Discussion, I will post this here:

RIP Absolute Legend Gigi Proietti :(

https://www.repubblica.it/spettacoli/people/2020/11/02/news/morto_gigi_proietti-272698267

This is really saddening, I think he was my favourite living Italian actor. Fittingly for someone born on the Day of the Dead, he died on his (80th) birthday...



Today is also the 45th anniversary of Pier Paolo Pasolini's death. Pasolini strikes me as someone who must be a favourite of threadmaster Antonio.

I love Pasolini, yeah. I don't think I'd enjoy all of his movies (*coughSalòcough*) but there are many I like, and he was a fascinating and much-needed voice in his time. F**k the Italian deep state for murdering him.

I'm honestly not too familiar with Gigi Proietti (I'm sure I've seen him in movies but I didn't really register him), but RIP FF.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 03, 2020, 08:10:33 AM
I'm honestly not too familiar with Gigi Proietti (I'm sure I've seen him in movies but I didn't really register him), but RIP FF.

Some random examples of his sketches:
https://youtu.be/ZeJV11iVp2Q
https://youtu.be/_ylQEOeXCoE

He was also the director of the Globe Theatre in Rome (a direct replica of the one in London), situated in Villa Borghese.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 25, 2020, 07:38:06 AM
In electoral news, things that have happened in the last month or so:

1. Apparently the regional election in Calabria will be held between February and April.

2. Former Minister of the Economy and Finance Pier Carlo Padoan resigned from his Chamber seat to enter the board of directors of Unicredit (ugggh) and since he was elected from a single-member constituency, there will be a by-election... some day.

2a. Padoan represented Tuscany - 12 (Siena), which probably means we are in for a new round of collective leftist freakout about the Red Regions, although the Bonaccini/Giani experience may have quelled the doom.

2b. I've read articles reporting about rumours of... parachuting Zingaretti to the seat. I find the idea very stupid for a number of reasons, but we'll see.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: FrancoAgo on November 25, 2020, 01:32:48 PM
If Zingaretti accept to run for the Chamber is crazy, they risk to loss the Lazio


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 25, 2020, 08:18:05 PM
I'm guessing this is coming from Zingaretti's enemies? They're usually the ones who try hard to get him to accept a new job. :P


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 26, 2020, 05:10:15 AM
I'm guessing this is coming from Zingaretti's enemies? They're usually the ones who try hard to get him to accept a new job. :P

It's possible, I don't know. It may also be that someone had a stupid idea thinking it was great, which seems a very PD thing to do.

Meanwhile, there is also talk of a cabinet reshuffle of some sort, which I'm certain would go badly.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 08, 2021, 07:07:27 PM
Today I found a lot of cool infographics about the regional elections from Bidimedia:

Liguria -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/regionali-liguria-2020-la-mappa-interattiva-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-comune-per-comune/
As expected, the medieval centre of Genoa is RAD, whereas Foce/Albaro/San Martino (the near-east) are very right-bourgeois. All in the space of like 7 km².
It is funny because La Spezia is not even remotely as polarized; excluding the anomalous left-wing strongholds, mon amours Biassa and Pitelli, there wasn't a single precinct where either candidate broke 60% (that link only has the precincts map for Genoa, but I know the precinct results of La Spezia as well because they're on our municipality website).
There are probably more things to say about Liguria but I think we fleshed it out with palandio pretty well some months ago.

Veneto -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/regionali-veneto-2020-la-mappa-interattiva-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-comune-per-comune/
This one is extremely boring and not very informative for obvious reasons, however I won a bet I made with a friend of mine - he thought Mestre and Marghera were more left-wing than the historic centre of Venice, I thought the opposite, and Zaia's result was indeed much worse (although still an easy win) in the historic centre. It may be a fluke, but I doubt it.

Campania -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/regionali-campania-2020-la-mappa-interattiva-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-comune-per-comune/
This one more than boring is a mess to decipher, but still not so informative for the same obvious reasons. However interesting that even here M5S shows a relative overperformance in the northern suburbs and working class neighbourhoods of Naples. One thing I did not expect was the PD list specifically having its better result in Naples in the eastern periphery of Barra and San Giovanni a Teduccio, which goes against the latest conventional wisdom.

Marche -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/regionali-marche-2020-la-mappa-interattiva-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-comune-per-comune/
We never talked about Marche. It is not a region I know particularly well, but the Northern part being the most left-leaning and the rural hilly province of Macerata being very right-leaning make sense to me. As does Mangialardi carrying the main cities in the Northern part, specifically Senigallia > Jesi - Ancona > Pesaro - Urbino (although he lost Fano by a lot). I find interesting that the right carried the historic centre and the seaside of Pesaro and the left carried all the surrounding neighbourhoods. Another case of right-bourgeois old town vs. working class additions I guess? I didn't know that.

Apulia -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/regionali-puglia-2020-la-mappa-interattiva-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-comune-per-comune/
We never talked about Apulia either, but it looks like another mess. Also, this is a region I know even less than Marche. I have never been to Apulia in my life. I can only say that seeing that San Nicola (the historic centre) in Bari, while still won by Emiliano, had him doing sizably worse than in all surrounding neighbourhoods, with the same holding true for the M5S candidate, is a good indication that we have another right-bourgeois old town here. Also it looks like the Bari metro area was really wot won it for Emiliano.

Tuscany -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/regionali-toscana-2020-la-mappa-interattiva-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-comune-per-comune/
THERE ARE TOO MANY THINGS TO SAY ABOUT TUSCANY
I probably know it even more in detail than Liguria lmao. I'll answer to eventual questions, rather than starting myself. Or maybe I'll start myself, but on another day.
One funny thing I noticed though is that precincts in the city of Florence have really odd shapes.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 08, 2021, 08:26:51 PM
Fascinating maps, thank you!! All that's missing are swing/trend maps to compare with 2015. That could have taught us a lot about what's happening here.

Also, worth noting that we've got a bit of a government crisis on our hands. Nothing as flashy as what's going on in the US, of course :P but Renzi seems pretty much dead set on toppling Conte, and if that happens nobody knows what comes next.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 08, 2021, 09:04:33 PM
Fascinating maps, thank you!! All that's missing are swing/trend maps to compare with 2015. That could have taught us a lot about what's happening here.

Also, worth noting that we've got a bit of a government crisis on our hands. Nothing as flashy as what's going on in the US, of course :P but Renzi seems pretty much dead set on toppling Conte, and if that happens nobody knows what comes next.

I know, my father talks about that a lot (because he has an irrational hatred for Conte), but I find Renzi a rather unpredictable character, so I'm not expecting the government to fall in, say, X days.
My dad's fever dream seems to be some sort of centre-right-ish government including everyone save from M5S (and maybe PD?) but that's definitely not going to happen. Personally I don't have any expectations, but I would rather not have parliamentary elections in 2021. Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 08, 2021, 09:04:46 PM
Speaking of those maps, I will make some Tuscany discourse because I can't help myself:
I find it interesting by probably unsurprising that Carrara centre and Massa centre were narrow left victories whereas Marina di Carrara and Marina di Massa (which by the way are both boring and not remotely worth Viareggio) were narrow right victories.
The effect was much bigger in Pisa with the historic centre and immediate surroundings being more than comfortable victories for Giani and Marina di Pisa/Tirrenia big for Ceccardi, although I should note that Pisa's geography is quite different from Carrara's and Massa's.
Kind of surprised that Viareggio's centre voted (very narrowly) for Giani, not necessarily that Torre del Lago Puccini is so right-wing.
Lucca is hilarious, I have basically only been inside the old citadel - wonderful place, which apparently voted to the left, but was outvoted by the vast periphery to the west (the periphery to the east is the separate town of Capannori instead).
Also lmao Florence. Even the precincts containing Piazza della Signoria, the Uffizi, Piazza della Repubblica and Palazzo Strozzi, which must be absurdly rich, voted Giani by double digits. And are surrounded by historic centre precincts which were mostly left landslides, which are surrounded by more peripheric precincts which for the most part were even bigger left landslides. Florence is just something else.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 09, 2021, 12:34:20 AM
Fascinating maps, thank you!! All that's missing are swing/trend maps to compare with 2015. That could have taught us a lot about what's happening here.

Also, worth noting that we've got a bit of a government crisis on our hands. Nothing as flashy as what's going on in the US, of course :P but Renzi seems pretty much dead set on toppling Conte, and if that happens nobody knows what comes next.

I know, my father talks about that a lot (because he has an irrational hatred for Conte), but I find Renzi a rather unpredictable character, so I'm not expecting the government to fall in, say, X days.
My dad's fever dream seems to be some sort of centre-right-ish government including everyone save from M5S (and maybe PD?) but that's definitely not going to happen. Personally I don't have any expectations, but I would rather not have parliamentary elections in 2021. Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

lmao, your dad wants a government that goes from PD to Lega? Yeah, fat chance.

Agreed that Renzi is quite unpredictable, but he really seems serious about this. He's had many chances to deescalate the conflict and he's only ramped it up. I think he's an egotistical blowhard, obviously, although he has some valid points (Conte has been a little cavalier in his governing style since the pandemic began, and taking the ESM money is a no-brainer). Above all else, though, you're right, having an election right now is Not a good idea. I'm still kinda, sorta hoping we can enact a more proportional electoral system before going to new elections, though this is exactly what Renzi is opposing. And of course, we need to elect Mattarella's successor. Throughout the Second Republic, the right has never been able to elect a President - and I want this streak to continue.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 09, 2021, 01:31:00 AM
Fascinating maps, thank you!! All that's missing are swing/trend maps to compare with 2015. That could have taught us a lot about what's happening here.

Also, worth noting that we've got a bit of a government crisis on our hands. Nothing as flashy as what's going on in the US, of course :P but Renzi seems pretty much dead set on toppling Conte, and if that happens nobody knows what comes next.

I know, my father talks about that a lot (because he has an irrational hatred for Conte), but I find Renzi a rather unpredictable character, so I'm not expecting the government to fall in, say, X days.
My dad's fever dream seems to be some sort of centre-right-ish government including everyone save from M5S (and maybe PD?) but that's definitely not going to happen. Personally I don't have any expectations, but I would rather not have parliamentary elections in 2021. Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

lmao, your dad wants a government that goes from PD to Lega? Yeah, fat chance.

Agreed that Renzi is quite unpredictable, but he really seems serious about this. He's had many chances to deescalate the conflict and he's only ramped it up. I think he's an egotistical blowhard, obviously, although he has some valid points (Conte has been a little cavalier in his governing style since the pandemic began, and taking the ESM money is a no-brainer). Above all else, though, you're right, having an election right now is Not a good idea. I'm still kinda, sorta hoping we can enact a more proportional electoral system before going to new elections, though this is exactly what Renzi is opposing. And of course, we need to elect Mattarella's successor. Throughout the Second Republic, the right has never been able to elect a President - and I want this streak to continue.

My dad just wants to see M5S (and Conte) nuked out of orbit. He hates PD too but less, and the right-wing/far-right but even less.

Renzi is indeed an egotistical blowhard, although I have to admit I respect the ability to con people he showed in 2014 and 2015 (remember when PD took 41% at the Europeans? F***ing insane) even if it didn't last. He seems serious but I don't know what his endgame exactly is. He's not gonna bring IV from 3% to relevancy if he topples the government.
I hope for a serious proportional system and not this mess too. I don't know why Renzi opposes that, but it seems to me that the people proposing majoritarianism are always something something neoliberal/lolbertarian/Moderate Hero. I think Mattarella's successor is up in the air in any case, and I am not that concerned with Presidential elections, but I see the merits of your point.
One streak I personally don't want to break is that of having parliamentary elections in the first half of the year, but that's just me.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 09, 2021, 01:39:23 AM
Fascinating maps, thank you!! All that's missing are swing/trend maps to compare with 2015. That could have taught us a lot about what's happening here.

Also, worth noting that we've got a bit of a government crisis on our hands. Nothing as flashy as what's going on in the US, of course :P but Renzi seems pretty much dead set on toppling Conte, and if that happens nobody knows what comes next.

I know, my father talks about that a lot (because he has an irrational hatred for Conte), but I find Renzi a rather unpredictable character, so I'm not expecting the government to fall in, say, X days.
My dad's fever dream seems to be some sort of centre-right-ish government including everyone save from M5S (and maybe PD?) but that's definitely not going to happen. Personally I don't have any expectations, but I would rather not have parliamentary elections in 2021. Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

lmao, your dad wants a government that goes from PD to Lega? Yeah, fat chance.

Agreed that Renzi is quite unpredictable, but he really seems serious about this. He's had many chances to deescalate the conflict and he's only ramped it up. I think he's an egotistical blowhard, obviously, although he has some valid points (Conte has been a little cavalier in his governing style since the pandemic began, and taking the ESM money is a no-brainer). Above all else, though, you're right, having an election right now is Not a good idea. I'm still kinda, sorta hoping we can enact a more proportional electoral system before going to new elections, though this is exactly what Renzi is opposing. And of course, we need to elect Mattarella's successor. Throughout the Second Republic, the right has never been able to elect a President - and I want this streak to continue.

My dad just wants to see M5S (and Conte) nuked out of orbit. He hates PD too but less, and the right-wing/far-right but even less.

Renzi is indeed an egotistical blowhard, although I have to admit I respect the ability to con people he showed in 2014 and 2015 (remember when PD took 41% at the Europeans? F***ing insane) even if it didn't last. He seems serious but I don't know what his endgame exactly is. He's not gonna bring IV from 3% to relevancy if he topples the government.
I hope for a serious proportional system and not this mess too. I don't know why Renzi opposes that, but it seems to me that the people proposing majoritarianism are always something something neoliberal/lolbertarian/Moderate Hero. I think Mattarella's successor is up in the air in any case, and I am not that concerned with Presidential elections, but I see the merits of your point.
One streak I personally don't want to break is that of having parliamentary elections in the first half of the year, but that's just me.

To Renzi's credit, he's been a consistent advocate for majoritarianism, even now when it's not in his political self-interest. Either way, he was wrong then (although I admit at the time I was convinced by him) and he's very wrong now.

And to me, elections ought to be in late Spring. May and June are election months. February and March feel a little too early for my tastes, but I guess at least it's not something really dumb like November. :P


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 09, 2021, 01:43:20 AM

To Renzi's credit, he's been a consistent advocate for majoritarianism, even now when it's not in his political self-interest. Either way, he was wrong then (although I admit at the time I was convinced by him) and he's very wrong now.

And to me, elections ought to be in late Spring. May and June are election months. February and March feel a little too early for my tastes, but I guess at least it's not something really dumb like November. :P

Oh so you were once conned by Renzi too? Proving my point. :P

Entirely agreed on the date of the election. May/June have also the nice touch of coinciding with the end of the school year.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 09, 2021, 01:46:50 AM

To Renzi's credit, he's been a consistent advocate for majoritarianism, even now when it's not in his political self-interest. Either way, he was wrong then (although I admit at the time I was convinced by him) and he's very wrong now.

And to me, elections ought to be in late Spring. May and June are election months. February and March feel a little too early for my tastes, but I guess at least it's not something really dumb like November. :P

Oh so you were once conned by Renzi too? Proving my point. :P

yeah... Well all make mistakes in our youth - you're young enough you probably have a few ahead of you. ;)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: CumbrianLefty on January 09, 2021, 08:07:06 AM
As we know in this country, political con men can be highly persuasive.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Lord Halifax on January 09, 2021, 08:52:54 AM
Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

???


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 09, 2021, 08:56:07 AM
Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

???

The President of the Republic cannot dissolve Parliament during the last six months of their tenure (unless compelled to because the legislature's term would expire as well in that same time frame). This is commonly called semestre bianco (white semester).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Lord Halifax on January 09, 2021, 10:04:02 AM
Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

???

The President of the Republic cannot dissolve Parliament during the last six months of their tenure (unless compelled to because the legislature's term would expire as well in that same time frame). This is commonly called semestre bianco (white semester).

Okay, I can see there is a Wiki article under the Italy name.(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semestre_bianco ).

But why did they make that rule?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 09, 2021, 10:14:38 AM
Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

???

The President of the Republic cannot dissolve Parliament during the last six months of their tenure (unless compelled to because the legislature's term would expire as well in that same time frame). This is commonly called semestre bianco (white semester).

Okay, I can see there is a Wiki article under the Italy name.(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semestre_bianco ).

But why did they make that rule?

Presumably to avoid that a President on their way out could use the opportunity to artificially lenghten their term and/or to engineer a new Parliament more favourable to their re-election or the election of someone from their political wing.
Of course the President of the Republic cannot dissolve Parliament just on a whim, but the amount of soft power that's available to them is theoretically unlimited (to make a real life example, it's pretty clear that Berlusconi was sort of forced to resign by Napolitano in 2011).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: rob in cal on January 09, 2021, 06:48:07 PM
   What does M5S have to say about all this?  From the discussions it almost seems that they are a marginal player, which is ironic since they are the biggest party in the government. Is it that they are just trying to go along as long as possible and avoid new elections or rocking the boat because they know they will take huge losses in the next elections. 


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 10, 2021, 11:20:48 AM
   What does M5S have to say about all this?  From the discussions it almost seems that they are a marginal player, which is ironic since they are the biggest party in the government. Is it that they are just trying to go along as long as possible and avoid new elections or rocking the boat because they know they will take huge losses in the next elections. 

I guess so. M5S has no incentive to see the government fall or a snap election happen, and in any case all the discourse seems to be incredibly personality driven, between the big ego of Renzi and the probably-bigger-than-he-lets-on ego of Conte.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: PSOL on January 10, 2021, 10:19:50 PM
Why is the Pope attacking the leader of PD?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 10, 2021, 10:30:41 PM
As we know in this country, political con men can be highly persuasive.

Oh come on, there's a big gap between falling for Renzi's shtick and falling for BoJo's. Don't put me in the same category. :P


Why is the Pope attacking the leader of PD?

Is he? I can't find any news about it (and Italian news studiously cover everything the Pope says or does).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 11, 2021, 05:27:54 AM
Why is the Pope attacking the leader of PD?

He absolutely has not done that. He has received Zingaretti in quality of President of Lazio (and later received Virginia Raggi, mayor of Rome) because it's tradition that he meet local administrators, and later, separately, has given an interview attacking "culture of waste" (where he has even tried to ground his appeals in a 'secular' form btw). I don't think I need to explain what Francis means by culture of waste.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 11, 2021, 05:31:24 AM
Why is the Pope attacking the leader of PD?

Is he? I can't find any news about it (and Italian news studiously cover everything the Pope says or does).

Isn't it beautiful to live in a papist theocracy <3


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: CumbrianLefty on January 11, 2021, 07:07:48 AM
As we know in this country, political con men can be highly persuasive.

Oh come on, there's a big gap between falling for Renzi's shtick and falling for BoJo's. Don't put me in the same category. :P

Fair point - Renzi is arguably much more of a Blair :)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 11, 2021, 07:26:02 AM
As we know in this country, political con men can be highly persuasive.

Oh come on, there's a big gap between falling for Renzi's shtick and falling for BoJo's. Don't put me in the same category. :P

Fair point - Renzi is arguably much more of a Blair :)

Renzi himself has mentioned (more than once I think) Tony Blair as an inspiration, so it makes perfect sense.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Diouf on January 12, 2021, 03:38:42 PM
It sounds like there's a government drama tonight. Renzi's Italia Viva could leave the government over disagreements about the recovery plan, and then the questions is whether the government still has a majority behind it.

Quote
The anti-establishment 5-Star Movement (M5S) and the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) on Tuesday warned ex-premier Matteo Renzi against plunging Premier Giuseppe Conte's coalition government into crisis. Ministers from Renzi's centrist Italia Viva (IV) party may resign after a cabinet meeting later on Tuesday to approve the government's Recovery Plan.
Renzi has been at odds with Conte for weeks about the government's programme on how to spend some 209 billion euros Italy will get in grants and low-interest loans from the EU's COVID-19 Recovery Fund. Renzi has blasted the plan as lacking ambition while also saying IV's problems with the government go beyond this issue, including the failure to take up the option of getting 37 billion in cash from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) for a national health system pushed to the limit by COVID-19
There is speculation Conte could resign and form what would be his third government after a cabinet reshuffle, with the premier being flanked by deputy premiers from the parties supporting the executive. But this executive may not have enough parliamentary support without IV, especially in the Senate

It sounds like Renzi is ready to leave, but the latest news report seems more optimistic about Conte finding enough support to continue the government without IV.

Quote
Ex-premier and centrist Italia Viva (IV) party leader Matteo Renzi said Tuesday Premier Giuseppe Conte was "convinced" he would have enough parliamentary support without IV which was therefore set to join the opposition. "If the premier has taken this line he is clearly convinced he has the numbers an that's OK, it's called parliamentary democracy and we'll go into opposition," said the former leader of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD).
With IV's upcoming defection over the COVID Recovery Plan, Conte needs 18 Senators to make up for the loss of Renzi's party. Observers said he was likely to get them.

https://www.ansa.it/english/news/general_news/2021/01/12/pd-and-m5s-warn-renzis-iv-against-triggering-govt-crisis_a8238adb-797c-4a78-bd5c-010b8b5d4735.html
https://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2021/01/12/conte-convinced-he-has-numbers-iv-to-opposition-renzi_bebb4a2a-126a-4906-8258-455739bf58d6.html


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Tender Branson on January 13, 2021, 12:31:28 PM
BREAKING:

Italy's government has just fallen apart.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Tender Branson on January 13, 2021, 12:37:32 PM
BREAKING:

Italy's government has just fallen apart.

Article:

Quote
ROME (Reuters) - Italy’s former premier Matteo Renzi said on Wednesday he was pulling his party’s ministers from the cabinet, effectively leaving the ruling coalition without a majority in parliament.

His decision, announced at a news conference, throws Italy into political chaos even as the country is struggling to contain the resurgent COVID-19 pandemic.

Renzi, who heads the tiny Italia Viva party, had long threatened to quit the government, complaining about Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s plans over how to spend billions of euros promised by the European Union to relaunch the economy.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-politics-renzi/italys-renzi-pulls-his-party-from-ruling-coalition-idUSKBN29I2I9


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Tender Branson on January 13, 2021, 12:48:20 PM
BREAKING:

Italy's government has just fallen apart.

How likely are new elections ?

It would be the typical 3 years or so after the last Italian election ... but the timing is pretty bad this year. Renzi seems kinda selfish for pulling out at this difficult time, but I don't know the background story and his motivations.

Anyway, Lega+FdI+FI are around 50% - but such a far-right coalition seems very unlikely. And even if they'd win a majority and form a government, it would fall apart pretty soon due to the usual fights that are the norm in far-right governments.

Poor Italy.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Mike88 on January 13, 2021, 12:50:30 PM
BREAKING:

Italy's government has just fallen apart.



Not sure what Renzi thinks he will win with this, but whatever. He's not even popular. He should spend his time playing Wheel of Fortune, but he seems to be bad at that as he is in politics.

Is it true that Berlusconi could save Conte? I've read that somewhere.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 13, 2021, 12:50:34 PM
HOLY MARY!

Anyway, this is apparently the beginning of a government crisis, but the possible scenarios are theoretically endless, so don't run too fast.

Also lol, even Reuters calls Renzi's party tiny!

@Antonio moment for a thread title update I guess


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 13, 2021, 12:51:53 PM
Not sure what Renzi thinks he will win with this, but whatever. He's not even popular. Is it true that Berlusconi could save Conte? I've read that somewhere.

It's theoretically possible, and it would be hilarious in a bad way, but I have no idea what Berlusconi actually thinks of all of this.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Mike88 on January 13, 2021, 12:55:11 PM
Not sure what Renzi thinks he will win with this, but whatever. He's not even popular. Is it true that Berlusconi could save Conte? I've read that somewhere.

It's theoretically possible, and it would be hilarious in a bad way, but I have no idea what Berlusconi actually thinks of all of this.
Well, if he somehow saves Conte during this awful period, we can probably say, very, very quietly: "Menomale che Silvio c'è"

But, it seems unlikely, in my opinion, not to say it would a re-run of a bad show, but this is 2021. We'll see.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 13, 2021, 01:00:23 PM
Not sure what Renzi thinks he will win with this, but whatever. He's not even popular. Is it true that Berlusconi could save Conte? I've read that somewhere.

It's theoretically possible, and it would be hilarious in a bad way, but I have no idea what Berlusconi actually thinks of all of this.
Well, if he somehow saves Conte during this awful period, we can probably say, very, very quietly: "Menomale che Silvio c'è"

Lmaooo

A very hilarious possibility would be a M5S-FI government; they likely have the numbers, and both parties stand to lose big from new elections. After the yellow-green government and the yellow-red government, in for the yellow-blue one? Realistically there's like <1% chance it happens, but who knows...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Mike88 on January 13, 2021, 01:03:53 PM
Not sure what Renzi thinks he will win with this, but whatever. He's not even popular. Is it true that Berlusconi could save Conte? I've read that somewhere.

It's theoretically possible, and it would be hilarious in a bad way, but I have no idea what Berlusconi actually thinks of all of this.
Well, if he somehow saves Conte during this awful period, we can probably say, very, very quietly: "Menomale che Silvio c'è"

Lmaooo

A very hilarious possibility would be a M5S-FI government; they likely have the numbers, and both parties stand to lose big from new elections. After the yellow-green government and the yellow-red government, in for the yellow-blue one? Realistically there's like <1% chance it happens, but who knows...
And any possibility of Renzi retracting his exit from the government? Or of a revolt in his caucus? It wouldn't be the first time.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 13, 2021, 01:08:14 PM
Not sure what Renzi thinks he will win with this, but whatever. He's not even popular. Is it true that Berlusconi could save Conte? I've read that somewhere.

It's theoretically possible, and it would be hilarious in a bad way, but I have no idea what Berlusconi actually thinks of all of this.
Well, if he somehow saves Conte during this awful period, we can probably say, very, very quietly: "Menomale che Silvio c'è"

Lmaooo

A very hilarious possibility would be a M5S-FI government; they likely have the numbers, and both parties stand to lose big from new elections. After the yellow-green government and the yellow-red government, in for the yellow-blue one? Realistically there's like <1% chance it happens, but who knows...
And any possibility of Renzi retracting his exit from the government? Or of a revolt in his caucus? It wouldn't be the first time.

Both things are possible, yes (I could actually argue that the former is even likely, but I won't do it). I don't think Renzi's endgame is really a snap election, and I don't know how other people in IV are assessing the situation.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Astatine on January 13, 2021, 01:14:00 PM
Not sure what Renzi thinks he will win with this, but whatever. He's not even popular. Is it true that Berlusconi could save Conte? I've read that somewhere.

It's theoretically possible, and it would be hilarious in a bad way, but I have no idea what Berlusconi actually thinks of all of this.
Well, if he somehow saves Conte during this awful period, we can probably say, very, very quietly: "Menomale che Silvio c'è"

Lmaooo

A very hilarious possibility would be a M5S-FI government; they likely have the numbers, and both parties stand to lose big from new elections. After the yellow-green government and the yellow-red government, in for the yellow-blue one? Realistically there's like <1% chance it happens, but who knows...
And any possibility of Renzi retracting his exit from the government? Or of a revolt in his caucus? It wouldn't be the first time.

Both things are possible, yes (I could actually argue that the former is even likely, but I won't do it). I don't think Renzi's endgame is really a snap election, and I don't know how other people in IV are assessing the situation.
Yeah, when you're polling at 3 % your goal shouldn't be a snap election.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Mike88 on January 13, 2021, 01:23:08 PM
Not sure what Renzi thinks he will win with this, but whatever. He's not even popular. Is it true that Berlusconi could save Conte? I've read that somewhere.

It's theoretically possible, and it would be hilarious in a bad way, but I have no idea what Berlusconi actually thinks of all of this.
Well, if he somehow saves Conte during this awful period, we can probably say, very, very quietly: "Menomale che Silvio c'è"

Lmaooo

A very hilarious possibility would be a M5S-FI government; they likely have the numbers, and both parties stand to lose big from new elections. After the yellow-green government and the yellow-red government, in for the yellow-blue one? Realistically there's like <1% chance it happens, but who knows...
And any possibility of Renzi retracting his exit from the government? Or of a revolt in his caucus? It wouldn't be the first time.

Both things are possible, yes (I could actually argue that the former is even likely, but I won't do it). I don't think Renzi's endgame is really a snap election, and I don't know how other people in IV are assessing the situation.
I ask that because this crisis gives me a sense of deja-vú: a politician with a huge ego forcing a crisis in the worst possible moment for very vague reasons. Irrevocable Paulo Portas. It was five years ago (https://www.dn.pt/poder/paulo-portas-irrevogavel-foi-ha-cinco-anos-9537368.html)
Quote
The then Minister of Foreign Affairs was not pleased to learn that Maria Luís Albuquerque was going to replace Vítor Gaspar. And he slammed the door, without anyone knowing. It lasted four days


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 13, 2021, 01:27:37 PM
Ah, I see that someone else is trying the now famous Blazing Saddles Negotiation Tactic.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Clarko95 📚💰📈 on January 13, 2021, 01:50:59 PM
Ma buttana di quella travestita vergine madonna e tuttu gli angeli in colonna, porco dio

Seriously, why is he like this?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 13, 2021, 01:58:39 PM
[censored]

Seriously, why is he like this?

I mean, please, we can do without the extreme blasphemies...

Aside from that, I can relate to how you're feeling, and my only answer is that Renzi's ego can never be underestimated.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 13, 2021, 07:30:37 PM
@Antonio moment for a thread title update I guess

Here you go. ;)


I won't hazard a prediction otherwise. I have no idea what Renzi's endgame is supposed to be, but I doubt he'll be able to convince PD and M5S to get rid of Conte and agree to all his demands. Somehow I have trouble seeing it come to snap elections either - it would be pure insanity in the current situation. No idea what else can happen, but in Italian politics, you should often expect the unexpected.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 14, 2021, 06:13:07 AM
@Antonio moment for a thread title update I guess

Here you go. ;)


I won't hazard a prediction otherwise. I have no idea what Renzi's endgame is supposed to be, but I doubt he'll be able to convince PD and M5S to get rid of Conte and agree to all his demands. Somehow I have trouble seeing it come to snap elections either - it would be pure insanity in the current situation. No idea what else can happen, but in Italian politics, you should often expect the unexpected.

Well you forgot that we are now in 2021, lol. ;)


I totally agree. I've seen many people mention a hypothetical Conte III but no one has an idea about its supposed specifics. I haven't seen much talk of snap elections instead. Either way we're in for a wild ride.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 14, 2021, 06:16:11 AM
[censored]

Seriously, why is he like this?

I mean, please, we can do without the extreme blasphemies...

Aside from that, I can relate to how you're feeling, and my only answer is that Renzi's ego can never be underestimated.

It wouldn't be Italian politics without the extreme blasphemies after all :P


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Lord Halifax on January 14, 2021, 06:56:24 AM
Ma buttana di quella travestita vergine madonna e tuttu gli angeli in colonna, porco dio

Translation?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 14, 2021, 07:04:58 AM

Comparing the Virgin, Our Lady, to a transvestite whore, all the angels in a row, comparing God to a swine.

Yeah, welcome to the magic tragic world of Italian blasphemies.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Alcibiades on January 14, 2021, 07:10:03 AM

Comparing the Virgin, Our Lady, to a transvestite whore, all the angels in a row, comparing God to a swine.

Yeah, welcome to the magic tragic world of Italian blasphemies.

I feel that Catholic countries have much more imaginative obscenities.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 14, 2021, 07:16:32 AM

Comparing the Virgin, Our Lady, to a transvestite whore, all the angels in a row, comparing God to a swine.

Yeah, welcome to the magic tragic world of Italian blasphemies.

I feel that Catholic countries have much more imaginative obscenities.

I feel like it's an Italian thing specifically. But tack50 feel free to illuminate me as to whether Spaniards curse with "D*** perro" or "M**** puta".


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Skye on January 14, 2021, 08:11:55 AM

Comparing the Virgin, Our Lady, to a transvestite whore, all the angels in a row, comparing God to a swine.

Yeah, welcome to the magic tragic world of Italian blasphemies.

I feel that Catholic countries have much more imaginative obscenities.

I feel like it's an Italian thing specifically. But tack50 feel free to illuminate me as to whether Spaniards curse with "D*** perro" or "M**** puta".

Spaniards are incredibly blasphemous when insulting lmao. The insults aren't quite the same, but they'd still be considered pretty obscene.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 14, 2021, 08:16:47 AM

Comparing the Virgin, Our Lady, to a transvestite whore, all the angels in a row, comparing God to a swine.

Yeah, welcome to the magic tragic world of Italian blasphemies.

I feel that Catholic countries have much more imaginative obscenities.

I feel like it's an Italian thing specifically. But tack50 feel free to illuminate me as to whether Spaniards curse with "D*** perro" or "M**** puta".

Spaniards are incredibly blasphemous when insulting lmao. The insults aren't quite the same, but they'd still be considered pretty obscene.

Yeah, not quite to Italian levels perhaps, but there are certainly tons of blasphemous insults in Spain, perhaps the most extended by far being "Me cago en Di** y en la Vir***" (ie I s**t on God and the Virgin); and derivatives of it.

Though it is usually just shortened to "Me cago en..." or to "Me cago en diez" (I sh**t on 10) and left at that; which wouldn't be blasphemous

Alcibiades makes a great point that Catholic countries tend to have much more imaginative (and blasphemous) obscenities


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Estrella on January 14, 2021, 08:31:13 AM
Alcibiades makes a great point that Catholic countries tend to have much more imaginative (and blasphemous) obscenities

Yeah, I guess that religion is just as important as culture or language when it comes to this. European French insults are kinda boring (they're pretty similar to English ones, actually)... but in Québec, until recently much more religious than France, you have such great things as tabarnak de criss d'ostie de câlisse (okay, no idea if anyone would actually say this exact phrase, but it's still beautiful).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 14, 2021, 08:48:36 AM
Alcibiades makes a great point that Catholic countries tend to have much more imaginative (and blasphemous) obscenities

Yeah, I guess that religion is just as important as culture or language when it comes to this. European French insults are kinda boring (they're pretty similar to English ones, actually)... but in Québec, until recently much more religious than France, you have such great things as tabarnak de criss d'ostie de câlisse (okay, no idea if anyone would actually say this exact phrase, but it's still beautiful).

Interestingly, in Italy people from Veneto are often stereotyped as the biggest serial blasphemers, and Veneto is one of the most religious regions.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Astatine on January 14, 2021, 09:19:35 AM

Comparing the Virgin, Our Lady, to a transvestite whore, all the angels in a row, comparing God to a swine.

Yeah, welcome to the magic tragic world of Italian blasphemies.

I feel that Catholic countries have much more imaginative obscenities.

Same goes for Serbo-Croatian/BHS, where God is often disrespected in insult (Jebem ti boga). In the Serbian standard variant of BHS you will often see insults against the Pope (directed towards Croats) or Islam (directed towards Bosniaks/Albanians). I even found a research paper on that: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336589682_AN_INTANGIBLE_BUT_VERY_LOUD_HERITAGE_SWEAR_WORDS_IN_SERBIAN :P

Anyways, not to derail this thread into swearing in foreign languages: I read somewhere that the President of the Italian Supreme Court, Marta Cartabia, is rumored to be a potential successor for Conte as Prime Minister. Any infos on that?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 14, 2021, 09:27:10 AM
Anyways, not to derail this thread into swearing in foreign languages: I read somewhere that the President of the Italian Supreme Court, Marta Cartabia, is rumored to be a potential successor for Conte as Prime Minister. Any infos on that?

What do you MEAN shifting the thread topic from "Renzi opens government crisis" to "Catholics have such imaginatively obscene ways to break the Second Commandment" just because I got mad at Clarko's language is derailing??

Anyway, personally I have never heard Marta Cartabia mentioned by anyone except by my father during his fever dreams of an institutional (and anti-M5S) government. Also, she is not a member of the Constitutional Court anymore.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Astatine on January 14, 2021, 09:33:35 AM
Anyways, not to derail this thread into swearing in foreign languages: I read somewhere that the President of the Italian Supreme Court, Marta Cartabia, is rumored to be a potential successor for Conte as Prime Minister. Any infos on that?

What do you MEAN shifting the thread topic from "Renzi opens government crisis" to "Catholics have such imaginatively obscene ways to break the Second Commandment" just because I got mad at Clarko's language is derailing??

Anyway, personally I have never heard Marta Cartabia mentioned by anyone except by my father during his fever dreams of an institutional (and anti-M5S) government. Also, she is not a member of the Constitutional Court anymore.
Me adding some more info on blasphemic insults in a non-Romanic language was the derailment, so I wanted to balance that a bit. :P

Just researched again where I found that, it was in the Austrian "Der Standard" and some other German news outlets apparently copied that.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: CumbrianLefty on January 14, 2021, 09:43:25 AM
BREAKING:

Italy's government has just fallen apart.

Wasn't that a more or less permanent headline for literally decades? :D


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Ridin' the Second Wave
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 14, 2021, 09:46:13 AM
BREAKING:

Italy's government has just fallen apart.

Wasn't that a more or less permanent headline for literally decades? :D

Conte II is the sixty-sixth government in 74.5 years of Italian Republic.
It is also the one-hundred-and-thirty-first in 160 years of united Italy, and the one-hundred-and-thirtieth in 139 years if one excludes the looong and, ahem, peculiar, Mussolini government.
So yeah it never was not a permanent headline (except during Fascism).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Sir Mohamed on January 14, 2021, 10:08:54 AM
What are the reasons Italy's govts are so unstable over decades? Seems like this isn't the case elsewhere in Europe. Even in Spain, which is similar in terms of economic and social status. France obviously has a different governing system while Germany and Northern European countries are generally more stable.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 14, 2021, 10:17:45 AM
What are the reasons Italy's govts are so unstable over decades? Seems like this isn't the case elsewhere in Europe. Even in Spain, which is similar in terms of economic and social status. France obviously has a different governing system while Germany and Northern European countries are generally more stable.

A (for the most periods proportional) parliamentary system with lots of parties, almost never a strong bipolarism, all the clienterarism that ran within and around DC (and the Kingdom-era liberals for that matter) etc. etc. etc.
Compare Belgium (almost 50 governments since the end of WW2, and that's considering that they've had caretaker periods far longer than ours).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: parochial boy on January 14, 2021, 10:35:30 AM
What are the reasons Italy's govts are so unstable over decades? Seems like this isn't the case elsewhere in Europe. Even in Spain, which is similar in terms of economic and social status. France obviously has a different governing system while Germany and Northern European countries are generally more stable.

A (for the most periods proportional) parliamentary system with lots of parties, almost never a strong bipolarism, all the clienterarism that ran within and around DC (and the Kingdom-era liberals for that matter) etc. etc. etc.
Compare Belgium (almost 50 governments since the end of WW2, and that's considering that they've had caretaker periods far longer than ours).

And France was almost always in the same situation until the 5th Republic. Which does make you wonder if pursuing governmental stability at the cost of all else is really the best thing to do


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2020: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: palandio on January 14, 2021, 02:47:33 PM
Hyperbolically speaking it could be argued that the governments during Italy's First Republic were very stable in the sense that it was always the same parties involved and the general outlook was always the same*. And exactly this led to a very short average survival time for each cabinet. If things will remain almost the same anyways then why not topple the government as soon as there is the opportunity for a litte gain?

*There were of course some significant developments over time like the compromesso storico, the rise of Craxi's Socialists, etc.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: President Johnson on January 14, 2021, 03:32:10 PM
I think it's irresponsible from Renzi to blow up the government right now with a pandemic raging. This is not the time for such moves.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 14, 2021, 03:40:05 PM
Hyperbolically speaking it could be argued that the governments during Italy's First Republic were very stable in the sense that it was always the same parties involved and the general outlook was always the same*. And exactly this led to a very short average survival time for each cabinet. If things will remain almost the same anyways then why not topple the government as soon as there is the opportunity for a litte gain?

*There were of course some significant developments over time like the compromesso storico, the rise of Craxi's Socialists, etc.

Yeah, the First Republic governments were fairly stable in terms of the policies they pursued, even if which specific people pursued them changed all the time. And this long-term policy stability allowed them to advance long-term projects in a way Italian governments have just stopped doing since the 1990s (the last one was really entry into the Euro).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 14, 2021, 03:51:55 PM
Hyperbolically speaking it could be argued that the governments during Italy's First Republic were very stable in the sense that it was always the same parties involved and the general outlook was always the same*. And exactly this led to a very short average survival time for each cabinet. If things will remain almost the same anyways then why not topple the government as soon as there is the opportunity for a litte gain?

*There were of course some significant developments over time like the compromesso storico, the rise of Craxi's Socialists, etc.

Yeah, the First Republic governments were fairly stable in terms of the policies they pursued, even if which specific people pursued them changed all the time. And this long-term policy stability allowed them to advance long-term projects in a way Italian governments have just stopped doing since the 1990s (the last one was really entry into the Euro).

What you both say is true, and, I mean, it's peak Italianness.
As Il Gattopardo says: If we want that everything stays the same, we need that everything change.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: bore on January 14, 2021, 04:32:32 PM
Hyperbolically speaking it could be argued that the governments during Italy's First Republic were very stable in the sense that it was always the same parties involved and the general outlook was always the same*. And exactly this led to a very short average survival time for each cabinet. If things will remain almost the same anyways then why not topple the government as soon as there is the opportunity for a litte gain?

*There were of course some significant developments over time like the compromesso storico, the rise of Craxi's Socialists, etc.

Yeah, the First Republic governments were fairly stable in terms of the policies they pursued, even if which specific people pursued them changed all the time. And this long-term policy stability allowed them to advance long-term projects in a way Italian governments have just stopped doing since the 1990s (the last one was really entry into the Euro).

What you both say is true, and, I mean, it's peak Italianness.
As Il Gattopardo says: If we want that everything stays the same, we need that everything change.

I've always interpreted that line in the context of the novel as a very clever man deluding himself about his own failure, not an actually coherent philosophy. For all the clever tactical victories achieved by The Leopard during the Risorgimento, in the last two chapters of the book (Don Fabrizio's death and his daughter elderly spinsterhood) we see that ultimately everything he's been trying to preserve has disappeared.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: palandio on January 14, 2021, 05:45:13 PM
Hyperbolically speaking it could be argued that the governments during Italy's First Republic were very stable in the sense that it was always the same parties involved and the general outlook was always the same*. And exactly this led to a very short average survival time for each cabinet. If things will remain almost the same anyways then why not topple the government as soon as there is the opportunity for a litte gain?

*There were of course some significant developments over time like the compromesso storico, the rise of Craxi's Socialists, etc.

Yeah, the First Republic governments were fairly stable in terms of the policies they pursued, even if which specific people pursued them changed all the time. And this long-term policy stability allowed them to advance long-term projects in a way Italian governments have just stopped doing since the 1990s (the last one was really entry into the Euro).

What you both say is true, and, I mean, it's peak Italianness.
As Il Gattopardo says: If we want that everything stays the same, we need that everything change.

I've always interpreted that line in the context of the novel as a very clever man deluding himself about his own failure, not an actually coherent philosophy. For all the clever tactical victories achieved by The Leopard during the Risorgimento, in the last two chapters of the book (Don Fabrizio's death and his daughter elderly spinsterhood) we see that ultimately everything he's been trying to preserve has disappeared.
That's an interesting interpretational ambiguity. In fact what Tomasi di Lampedusa originally meant and how it was widely understood don't necessarily need to be the same. I never read the novel but in the film it looked like Don Fabrizio approved of Tancredi's successful adaption to the new regime. And I think that this is how many understood it.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 14, 2021, 06:09:18 PM
In the book the point is put across in a rather sharper manner than the film. But one reason why that line is so clever is that it does have multiple meanings: as the delusion of a clever man trying to convince himself that he isn't presiding over the slow destruction of his universe, but also as a barbed comment on the politics of the late 19th and early 20th centuries.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 16, 2021, 02:09:30 AM
So Conte has until Tuesday to find enough "responsible" (or "treasonous", depending on your political inclinations) MPs who would defect from their parties and form a new parliamentary group to buffer his majority without Renzi's support. There is a proud tradition of past governments cobbling together governments that way, of course, but no guarantee.

Yesterday, it looked like he was on track to find them. Today, it's been less clear, and there are talks of renewed negotiations with IV instead. Hard to know what to make of it. The situation remains very fluid, as they say.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 16, 2021, 06:40:17 AM
To be clear, the Chamber will vote on a motion of (no) confidence on Monday, and the Senate will do the same on Tuesday.

The government's numbers look worse in the Senate.

I have no expectations, I prefer to look forward to the change in U.S. government that will happen on Wednesday [and will be accompanied by a change in my display name].


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: jaichind on January 16, 2021, 08:32:09 AM
Would not Senators from Renzi and Berlusconi parties have an incentive to break ranks and vote with the government ?  A snap election most likely they lose their seats.  As much as I want a snap election where Lega sweeps into power I sort of doubt that will actually take place.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Estrella on January 16, 2021, 02:18:46 PM
Would not Senators from Renzi and Berlusconi parties have an incentive to break ranks and vote with the government ?  A snap election most likely they lose their seats.  As much as I want a snap election where Lega sweeps into power I sort of doubt that will actually take place.

I know you have always treaded the line between responsible orthodox economic policies and the supporting the most right-wing option available, but I thought you liked the former more than the latter?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 16, 2021, 04:38:44 PM
Would not Senators from Renzi and Berlusconi parties have an incentive to break ranks and vote with the government ?  A snap election most likely they lose their seats.  As much as I want a snap election where Lega sweeps into power I sort of doubt that will actually take place.

I know you have always treaded the line between responsible orthodox economic policies and the supporting the most right-wing option available, but I thought you liked the former more than the latter?

By now you should understand that "scratch a libertarian, a fascist bleeds" is a 100% accurate summary of jaichind's politics. He's the literal living embodiment of the phrase.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Coldstream on January 17, 2021, 06:32:17 AM
Would not Senators from Renzi and Berlusconi parties have an incentive to break ranks and vote with the government ?  A snap election most likely they lose their seats.  As much as I want a snap election where Lega sweeps into power I sort of doubt that will actually take place.

I know you have always treaded the line between responsible orthodox economic policies and the supporting the most right-wing option available, but I thought you liked the former more than the latter?

By now you should understand that "scratch a libertarian, a fascist bleeds" is a 100% accurate summary of jaichind's politics. He's the literal living embodiment of the phrase.

Aren’t Lega Nord quite economically interventionist too? I’d have thought Brothers of Italy would be more suitable for a fascist adjacent Libertarian.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 17, 2021, 06:52:27 AM
Would not Senators from Renzi and Berlusconi parties have an incentive to break ranks and vote with the government ?  A snap election most likely they lose their seats.  As much as I want a snap election where Lega sweeps into power I sort of doubt that will actually take place.

I know you have always treaded the line between responsible orthodox economic policies and the supporting the most right-wing option available, but I thought you liked the former more than the latter?

By now you should understand that "scratch a libertarian, a fascist bleeds" is a 100% accurate summary of jaichind's politics. He's the literal living embodiment of the phrase.

Aren’t Lega Nord quite economically interventionist too? I’d have thought Brothers of Italy would be more suitable for a fascist adjacent Libertarian.

Yeah, the famously economically interventionist party which *checks notes* has proposed a 15% flat income tax and also *checks notes* supports giving more autonomy to rich Northern regions.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: CumbrianLefty on January 17, 2021, 07:37:07 AM
Seriously, when did "libertarians" get so attracted to ethnic chauvinism?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Estrella on January 17, 2021, 08:06:14 AM
Seriously, when did "libertarians" get so attracted to ethnic chauvinism?

It's not even a new thing. Just an example: Robert A. Heinlein* is considered one of the foremost American libertarians, and yet he wrote Starship Troopers - a book that is simultaneously one of the best sci-fi novels of all time and a deeply ideological, fanatically fascist screed.

* I always have the urge to call him Henlein; I wonder what is beind that. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Konrad_Henlein)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 17, 2021, 08:13:15 AM
Yeah, the famously economically interventionist party which *checks notes* has proposed a 15% flat income tax and also *checks notes* supports giving more autonomy to rich Northern regions.

In fairness to Lega Nord (never thought I'd say that); giving more autonomy to the regions isn't an inherently left wing or right wing policy :P

Their reasoning for the extra autonomy clearly is right wing though; "Roma ladrona" is fairly clear.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: parochial boy on January 17, 2021, 08:15:38 AM
Seriously, when did "libertarians" get so attracted to ethnic chauvinism?

Prepare for a bit of a hot take, but is it really surprising that an ideology devoted to fanatically worshipping the idea of social and economic hierarchy would be pretty excited by the idea of an ethnic hierarchy too?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 17, 2021, 09:03:08 AM
Yeah, the famously economically interventionist party which *checks notes* has proposed a 15% flat income tax and also *checks notes* supports giving more autonomy to rich Northern regions.

In fairness to Lega Nord (never thought I'd say that); giving more autonomy to the regions isn't an inherently left wing or right wing policy :P

Their reasoning for the extra autonomy clearly is right wing though; "Roma ladrona" is fairly clear.

Boi, don't make me quote the sacred texts.

Quote from: Fratelli Tutti §125
What applies to nations is true also for different regions within each country, since there too great inequalities often exist. At times, the inability to recognize equal human dignity leads the more developed regions in some countries to think that they can jettison the “dead weight” of poorer regions and so increase their level of consumption.

Let's put it like this:
"We are not saying we hate the terroni, but we would unplug their life support to charge our phones. BIG DIFFERENCE"

Autonomist or separatist movements in areas wealthier than the country as a whole really just cannot ever be trusted. Tale as old as time.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Coldstream on January 17, 2021, 02:27:17 PM
Would not Senators from Renzi and Berlusconi parties have an incentive to break ranks and vote with the government ?  A snap election most likely they lose their seats.  As much as I want a snap election where Lega sweeps into power I sort of doubt that will actually take place.

I know you have always treaded the line between responsible orthodox economic policies and the supporting the most right-wing option available, but I thought you liked the former more than the latter?

By now you should understand that "scratch a libertarian, a fascist bleeds" is a 100% accurate summary of jaichind's politics. He's the literal living embodiment of the phrase.

Aren’t Lega Nord quite economically interventionist too? I’d have thought Brothers of Italy would be more suitable for a fascist adjacent Libertarian.

Yeah, the famously economically interventionist party which *checks notes* has proposed a 15% flat income tax and also *checks notes* supports giving more autonomy to rich Northern regions.

That’s why I asked. All I knew was Salvini used to be a communist. And my question whether they were “more interventionist” than FdL.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 17, 2021, 02:42:48 PM
The Italian right likes to posture in favor of Keynesian deficit spending against EU-sponsored austerity (that was true of Berlusconi in 2013 as well), but usually it comes in the form of either regressive tax policies like Salvini's ridiculous flat tax proposal, or to aid to very specific categories like small business owners or pensioners. Other than that they're as neoliberal as it gets.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 18, 2021, 04:32:43 PM
Apparently the Chamber today confirmed its confidence to the Conte II government with 321 Yes, 259 No and 27 abstentions (coming all from Italia Viva).

Of course the biggest hurdle will be the Senate tomorrow. I still have no expectations.

In the meantime, the regional election in Calabria will be held on April 11th - hoping it does not get postponed again - while the date of the Chamber by-election in the Siena constituency is still unclear. Since the centre-left is notoriously masochist, there is some skirmish happening between the national PD, the local PD, IV, and what not over who should be the nominee in the by-election. Zero news about potential candidates in Calabria.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Velasco on January 19, 2021, 02:31:33 AM
I think you can explain this chart better than me

() (https://ibb.co/9nMjXMg)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: palandio on January 19, 2021, 04:32:00 AM
I think you can explain this chart better than me

() (https://ibb.co/9nMjXMg)
There are 321 senators, hence for a (absolute) majority you need 161 of them.

Before the crisis the government had 166, of these 18 from Renzi's Italia Viva.

Subtracting them you get 148 votes, short of the 161 you need. Three senators from the mixed group that hadn't supported the majority before, up to three senators from FI/Udc and up to three life-long senators might join the majority for a total of 151-157 senators, still short of 161. For 161 you would need another 4-10 senators to join the majority.

If the Italia Viva's senators choose to abstain, there would be at most 303 votes, if furthermore all life-long senators abstain, then there would be at most 297. Which would reduce the number of votes needed for a majority to 149 or 152 respectively, enabling Conte to reach a majority.

(I think that the makers of the chart fumbled a bit with the life-long senators in the third diagram. All of them just vanish from the Senate, but at the same time up to three of them are in the new majority. It doesn't make sense.)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 19, 2021, 01:07:36 PM
I have been listening to some Senators' speeches. Matteo Renzi said some good things mixed together with tiresome globe-emoji ideologism, as usual. Alberto Bagnai (Lega's leading economist) was sharp and cunning, as usual, but when he complained that in 2019 too little money was spent on public investments I couldn't help laughing.

Also I think I might love Andrea Cioffi (M5S) now:
- grated turbo-neoliberalism (and implicitly Renzi)
- made a reference to Bernie Sanders
- made a reference to the Gospel of Mark
- talked about putting people first, recognizing their love and their pain, and promoting brotherhood
- made a very poetic description of the glucose cycle as the material motor of life


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Mike88 on January 19, 2021, 01:39:49 PM
It seems that Conte is on track to win the Senate vote, is that right?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Alcibiades on January 19, 2021, 01:58:07 PM
Where do Conte’s sympathies now lie ideologically? Obviously he was originally chosen by the ‘populist coalition’ to lead their government, but to survive the confidence vote he was making appeals to liberals and social democrats. Is he still most closely linked with M5S out of all the parties in his government? Also, does he have any long-term political ambitions or desire to get involved in party politics, and does he intend to try and remain PM or otherwise continue to be active in politics after the next election, or if this government collapses?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: brucejoel99 on January 19, 2021, 02:31:04 PM
It seems that Conte is on track to win the Senate vote, is that right?

Yes, looks like he's on track to win a plurality in the Senate rather than an absolute majority, though he'll come close to one thanks to some of the life-long senators & a few floor-crossers from Italia Viva & Forza Italia. In any event, governments have been permitted in the past to command only a plurality in the Senate, so Mattarella will (obviously) allow Conte to continue at the helm.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 19, 2021, 02:39:43 PM
Where do Conte’s sympathies now lie ideologically? Obviously he was originally chosen by the ‘populist coalition’ to lead their government, but to survive the confidence vote he was making appeals to liberals and social democrats. Is he still most closely linked with M5S out of all the parties in his government? Also, does he have any long-term political ambitions or desire to get involved in party politics, and does he intend to try and remain PM or otherwise continue to be active in politics after the next election, or if this government collapses?

1. No one knows
2. For the moment, the answer has to be yes
3. It looks more and more like he has long-term ambitions, but the contours are still very unclear


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 19, 2021, 03:28:05 PM
And Matteo Salvini unsurprisingly greatly exceeded the time limit for his speech, provoking vociferous protests.

His speech has actually been a pretty good rundown of #populist conservative fusionism on every issue.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Diouf on January 19, 2021, 04:07:00 PM
Sounds like Conte reiterated in his speech today that the government wants a proportional electoral law, so hopefully there can soon be a good agreement on this crucial subject. Renzi and Italia Viva has done their to block it, mainly due to the proposed 5% threshold, but hopefully his role is less important now.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 19, 2021, 04:39:19 PM
Conte got 156 votes. 5 short of a majority, but enough, it seems, to live on to fight another day. Hopefully there's still the chance that a few more will join the ranks.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 19, 2021, 04:40:56 PM
The Senate today confirmed its confidence to the Conte II government with 156 Yes, 140 No and 16 abstentions (coming from Italia Viva).

I am not exactly *happy* - not the right word - however:
- Renzi: owned
- Salvini: owned


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Andrea on January 19, 2021, 05:05:40 PM
It went on for an extra half an hour because Ciampolillo (ex 5 Stars) and Nencini (Socialist, grouped with Italia Viva) declared to vote at the end of the second rolling call.
Speaker Casellati had to check the videorecording to understand if they asked to vote before or after she closed the voting period.

Both were admitted to vote in the end and voted "yes".

Earlier in the evening, 2 Forza Italia senators (Maria Rosaria Rossi and Andrea Causin) defected to the yes camp.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 19, 2021, 05:22:50 PM
Based Nencini. <3 Hopefully he takes back his symbol so that Renzi's band of traitors is left without a parliamentary group. That would serve him well.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 19, 2021, 05:37:20 PM
Based Nencini. <3 Hopefully he takes back his symbol so that Renzi's band of traitors is left without a parliamentary group. That would serve him well.

I mean, Nencini's use of the red carnation symbol and the Socialist name is kind of hilarious itself since he strikes me as to the right of PD (or at least, he tends to ally/form electoral lists with such subjects).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 19, 2021, 05:47:57 PM
Based Nencini. <3 Hopefully he takes back his symbol so that Renzi's band of traitors is left without a parliamentary group. That would serve him well.

I mean, Nencini's use of the red carnation symbol and the Socialist name is kind of hilarious itself since he strikes me as to the right of PD (or at least, he tends to ally/form electoral lists with such subjects).

Considering that most of Craxi's people became the leading cadre of Forza Italia, the rump PSI being to the right of PD is far from surprising. :P


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 19, 2021, 05:54:57 PM
Based Nencini. <3 Hopefully he takes back his symbol so that Renzi's band of traitors is left without a parliamentary group. That would serve him well.

I mean, Nencini's use of the red carnation symbol and the Socialist name is kind of hilarious itself since he strikes me as to the right of PD (or at least, he tends to ally/form electoral lists with such subjects).

Considering that most of Craxi's people became the leading cadre of Forza Italia, the rump PSI being to the right of PD is far from surprising. :P

I know, and I always find that puzzling. It only makes sense if you think that by the early 90's the PSI did not have a purpose anymore except pwning the PCI and promoting Craxi's personal preferences... which is probably pretty close to the mark, lol.

[and being a graft machine, of course, but that was hardly distinctive in 1992 Italy]


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 21, 2021, 07:57:57 PM
Apparently Andrea Cioffi has become viral on social media after his speech last Tuesday. And understandably so!

So I want to share his "glucose" speech with you, because it's just beautiful. Translated by yours truly.

To know when a system is circular, it suffices to think about the glucose cycle.
The sun, motor of life, when the green of spring explodes and covers earth with frisson, power, vital energy.
When you look at a leaf against the light and see its structure, its internal veins, and you know that those tunnels connect air and earth, leaves that make it so that air is enriched with what at the beginning of history was a poison: oxygen.
There, on the leaf's surface, a microcosm of affections and magic is recreated. A world dominated by the union, interaction, and transformation of simple elements, from hydrogen to oxygen, from nitrogen to potassium.
A series of elements spinning, dancing around their mentor: carbon. And there, on the leaf's surface, love is born, when carbon dioxide enters the green and dancing beneath the sunshine, inebriated from its heat, it breaks apart, leaving oxygen free to fly and carbon free to rejoin with the other guests at the feast to define a marvellous chain, glucose, sweet nectar flowing up to the fruit.
And from there it enters a child's mouth, it flows into their blood and feeds the part that most needs it, the part where thought is conceived, where questions and answers are conceived, that nerve cell which produces love and pain, thought and memory.
And it is in that cell that carbon parts from its old dance partners and through the blood vessels arrives to the lungs, where it rejoins with its two old oxygen friends, and combining back with them is free again to fly in the air, and a new ride starts, entering again a gull's wings, a cricket's legs, a worm's blood, a lion's claws.
Life. Life.
Now, President of the Council of Ministers, it's for that life, for that love perpetuating between carbon and oxygen that all good-willed people are asking that you carry on. Love requires courage, and as an Athenian historian, a father of the polis, said, certainly the bravest are those who have the clearest vision of what awaits them, of the glory as much as of the danger - and in spite of that confront it and don't flee, I would add. So carry on with head held high President, the Five Star Movement is with you.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 21, 2021, 08:38:27 PM
Where do Conte’s sympathies now lie ideologically? Obviously he was originally chosen by the ‘populist coalition’ to lead their government, but to survive the confidence vote he was making appeals to liberals and social democrats. Is he still most closely linked with M5S out of all the parties in his government? Also, does he have any long-term political ambitions or desire to get involved in party politics, and does he intend to try and remain PM or otherwise continue to be active in politics after the next election, or if this government collapses?

1. No one knows
2. For the moment, the answer has to be yes
3. It looks more and more like he has long-term ambitions, but the contours are still very unclear

Only in Italy would it be an open question whether the incumbent Prime Minister has "long-term ambitions" in politics or not!


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 21, 2021, 09:17:05 PM
Where do Conte’s sympathies now lie ideologically? Obviously he was originally chosen by the ‘populist coalition’ to lead their government, but to survive the confidence vote he was making appeals to liberals and social democrats. Is he still most closely linked with M5S out of all the parties in his government? Also, does he have any long-term political ambitions or desire to get involved in party politics, and does he intend to try and remain PM or otherwise continue to be active in politics after the next election, or if this government collapses?

1. No one knows
2. For the moment, the answer has to be yes
3. It looks more and more like he has long-term ambitions, but the contours are still very unclear

Only in Italy would it be an open question whether the incumbent Prime Minister has "long-term ambitions" in politics or not!

This is because only in Italy would the Incumbent Prime Minister be someone who before the start of the legislature was a totally random civil servant literally no one in the public had ever heard about.


Also, to bring up an issue I know you care about, you might be pleased (lol) to know that Salvini made some brief pro-life grandstanding Tuesday, saying "We're for defence of life always. My model are crisis pregnancy centres, not abortive pills given for free [?] on the street to anyone [??]", which is about as substantive as a Republican screaming Deficit Bad, but I noted because I can't even remember the last time I had heard about the topic in Italian politics.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 21, 2021, 09:56:44 PM
Where do Conte’s sympathies now lie ideologically? Obviously he was originally chosen by the ‘populist coalition’ to lead their government, but to survive the confidence vote he was making appeals to liberals and social democrats. Is he still most closely linked with M5S out of all the parties in his government? Also, does he have any long-term political ambitions or desire to get involved in party politics, and does he intend to try and remain PM or otherwise continue to be active in politics after the next election, or if this government collapses?

1. No one knows
2. For the moment, the answer has to be yes
3. It looks more and more like he has long-term ambitions, but the contours are still very unclear

Only in Italy would it be an open question whether the incumbent Prime Minister has "long-term ambitions" in politics or not!

This is because only in Italy would the Incumbent Prime Minister be someone who before the start of the legislature was a totally random civil servant literally no one in the public had ever heard about.


Also, to bring up an issue I know you care about, you might be pleased (lol) to know that Salvini made some brief pro-life grandstanding Tuesday, saying "We're for defence of life always. My model are crisis pregnancy centres, not abortive pills given for free [?] on the street to anyone [??]", which is about as substantive as a Republican screaming Deficit Bad, but I noted because I can't even remember the last time I had heard about the topic in Italian politics.

The Lega folks in Veneto made the news a few years ago for hosting some kind of pro-life event, but I didn't think Salvini was explicitly on board with it. I guess he's decided he really wants to Americanize Italian political debate in every respect...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 21, 2021, 10:22:53 PM
Where do Conte’s sympathies now lie ideologically? Obviously he was originally chosen by the ‘populist coalition’ to lead their government, but to survive the confidence vote he was making appeals to liberals and social democrats. Is he still most closely linked with M5S out of all the parties in his government? Also, does he have any long-term political ambitions or desire to get involved in party politics, and does he intend to try and remain PM or otherwise continue to be active in politics after the next election, or if this government collapses?

1. No one knows
2. For the moment, the answer has to be yes
3. It looks more and more like he has long-term ambitions, but the contours are still very unclear

Only in Italy would it be an open question whether the incumbent Prime Minister has "long-term ambitions" in politics or not!

This is because only in Italy would the Incumbent Prime Minister be someone who before the start of the legislature was a totally random civil servant literally no one in the public had ever heard about.


Also, to bring up an issue I know you care about, you might be pleased (lol) to know that Salvini made some brief pro-life grandstanding Tuesday, saying "We're for defence of life always. My model are crisis pregnancy centres, not abortive pills given for free [?] on the street to anyone [??]", which is about as substantive as a Republican screaming Deficit Bad, but I noted because I can't even remember the last time I had heard about the topic in Italian politics.

The Lega folks in Veneto made the news a few years ago for hosting some kind of pro-life event, but I didn't think Salvini was explicitly on board with it. I guess he's decided he really wants to Americanize Italian political debate in every respect...

I am not sure you are referring to this, but the only thing that comes to my mind is when the 2019 edition of the World Congress of Families was hosted in Verona. It made some news but basically everyone forgot about it soon afterwards. Salvini's speech last Tuesday felt very 'Americanized' in its entirety, but in all likelihood that part was mostly an aside and irrelevant to the Debate [to the dismay of Tommaso Scandroglio and other r a d t r a d s].


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 21, 2021, 10:29:28 PM
Where do Conte’s sympathies now lie ideologically? Obviously he was originally chosen by the ‘populist coalition’ to lead their government, but to survive the confidence vote he was making appeals to liberals and social democrats. Is he still most closely linked with M5S out of all the parties in his government? Also, does he have any long-term political ambitions or desire to get involved in party politics, and does he intend to try and remain PM or otherwise continue to be active in politics after the next election, or if this government collapses?

1. No one knows
2. For the moment, the answer has to be yes
3. It looks more and more like he has long-term ambitions, but the contours are still very unclear

Only in Italy would it be an open question whether the incumbent Prime Minister has "long-term ambitions" in politics or not!

This is because only in Italy would the Incumbent Prime Minister be someone who before the start of the legislature was a totally random civil servant literally no one in the public had ever heard about.


Also, to bring up an issue I know you care about, you might be pleased (lol) to know that Salvini made some brief pro-life grandstanding Tuesday, saying "We're for defence of life always. My model are crisis pregnancy centres, not abortive pills given for free [?] on the street to anyone [??]", which is about as substantive as a Republican screaming Deficit Bad, but I noted because I can't even remember the last time I had heard about the topic in Italian politics.

The Lega folks in Veneto made the news a few years ago for hosting some kind of pro-life event, but I didn't think Salvini was explicitly on board with it. I guess he's decided he really wants to Americanize Italian political debate in every respect...

I am not sure you are referring to this, but the only thing that comes to my mind is when the 2019 edition of the World Congress of Families was hosted in Verona. It made some news but basically everyone forgot about it soon afterwards. Salvini's speech last Tuesday felt very 'Americanized' in its entirety, but in all likelihood that part was mostly an aside and irrelevant to the Debate [to the dismay of Tommaso Scandroglio and other r a d t r a d s].

I think that's what I was referring to, yeah. It's been a long time and I've mostly blacked it out.

Anyway, if Salvini or Meloni are serious about undermining legal abortion once they (inevitably) get their shot at power, I can only hope Italian women will make them pay a high price for it. This isn't America and it isn't even Poland. We have a broad consensus around safe, legal, subsidized and tightly-regulated abortion. It's not my ideal if I would design it from scratch, but right now upsetting it in any direction would just blow up in everyone's faces.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: njwes on January 21, 2021, 10:38:34 PM
Maybe a bit obscure, but figured this was the best place to ask: what was the ideology of the Italian Communist Party in the 80s? Or maybe more precisely the last 5 or 10 years before it split into the PRC and the PDS? Were any of the party leaders/politicians still actual doctrinaire Marxists/Marxist-LeninistS by that point, or had everyone more or less evolved into sort of milquetoast Euro social democrats?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 21, 2021, 11:23:46 PM
Anyway, if Salvini or Meloni are serious about undermining legal abortion once they (inevitably) get their shot at power, I can only hope Italian women will make them pay a high price for it. This isn't America and it isn't even Poland. We have a broad consensus around safe, legal, subsidized and tightly-regulated abortion. It's not my ideal if I would design it from scratch, but right now upsetting it in any direction would just blow up in everyone's faces.

Nah, they don't actually have any plans to do anything to law n. 194.

Also *checks demographic trends* soon there won't be abortions anymore in Italy anyway because people will just stop making kids :) :) :)

Forgive my black humour pls

Maybe a bit obscure, but figured this was the best place to ask: what was the ideology of the Italian Communist Party in the 80s? Or maybe more precisely the last 5 or 10 years before it split into the PRC and the PDS? Were any of the party leaders/politicians still actual doctrinaire Marxists/Marxist-LeninistS by that point, or had everyone more or less evolved into sort of milquetoast Euro social democrats?

The party under Natta (1984-1988) had currents going in both directions, and the main atmosphere was just that of "wilderness years". The most notable thing was when it called a referendum to repeal changes that the Craxi government had made to the sliding wage scale (TL;DR automatically indexing wages to inflation)... and lost.
The party under Occhetto (1988-1991) had a psychodrama induced by the fall of the Berlin Wall, of course, and the rift between the two tendencies opened bigly. Obviously the majority was just going along the transition to social democrats, and indeed PDS is normally considered the "official heir" to PCI.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 21, 2021, 11:46:35 PM
Honestly, at this point I wouldn't be shocked if Salvini turned out to be a Primitive Baptist sleeper agent sent to weaken Catholicism on its home turf by making it as all'americana as possible, even though if that were the case he probably would have become a crooked priest rather than an extremist politician.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 21, 2021, 11:52:42 PM
Also *checks demographic trends* soon there won't be abortions anymore in Italy anyway because people will just stop making kids :) :) :)

Forgive my black humour pls

True :'(

And of course, every government's solution to that is to make patronizing ads scolding women for not having more kids instead of, you know, creating the socio-economic conditions that make family-building possible.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 22, 2021, 01:57:49 AM
Also *checks demographic trends* soon there won't be abortions anymore in Italy anyway because people will just stop making kids :) :) :)

Forgive my black humour pls

True :'(

And of course, every government's solution to that is to make patronizing ads scolding women for not having more kids instead of, you know, creating the socio-economic conditions that make family-building possible.

Honestly I am not sure what kind of ads you're referring to.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 22, 2021, 02:01:04 AM
Also *checks demographic trends* soon there won't be abortions anymore in Italy anyway because people will just stop making kids :) :) :)

Forgive my black humour pls

True :'(

And of course, every government's solution to that is to make patronizing ads scolding women for not having more kids instead of, you know, creating the socio-economic conditions that make family-building possible.

Honestly I am not sure what kind of ads you're referring to.

That was news from back from the Renzi days. I don't remember the details except that it was cringe.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: jaichind on January 25, 2021, 10:47:46 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-24/italy-s-conte-resisting-pressure-to-resign-as-senate-vote-looms

What?  There is another Senate vote ?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 25, 2021, 10:58:51 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-24/italy-s-conte-resisting-pressure-to-resign-as-senate-vote-looms

What?  There is another Senate vote ?

That is a vote on a report on the state of the judiciary system that will be presented by Minister of Justice Alfonso Bonafede. Of course it is not binding for confidence matters (well, unless the government calls a confidence question upon the vote, and I have no idea whether it shall happen) but in any case it might make Conte look extremely bad if the report was turned down by the Senate.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: jaichind on January 25, 2021, 11:11:52 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-24/italy-s-conte-resisting-pressure-to-resign-as-senate-vote-looms

What?  There is another Senate vote ?

That is a vote on a report on the state of the judiciary system that will be presented by Minister of Justice Alfonso Bonafede. Of course it is not binding for confidence matters (well, unless the government calls a confidence question upon the vote, and I have no idea whether it shall happen) but in any case it might make Conte look extremely bad if the report was turned down by the Senate.

I am reading in various news wires that Conte’s coalition allies are pressing him to step down before this Senate vote they expect he will lose in a tactical move to allow him a chance to try to form a new government.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Astatine on January 25, 2021, 02:01:23 PM
Conte apparently just announced his resignation...

Edit: ...to seek a mandate for a 3rd cabinet. Shouldn't just read news article headlines.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: brucejoel99 on January 25, 2021, 04:05:22 PM
Does "forming a new government" just mean trying to re-negotiate Italia Viva back into the fray?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 25, 2021, 04:07:04 PM
Does "forming a new government" just mean trying to re-negotiate Italia Viva back into the fray?

No, it can mean basically anything, although I assume that one is the preferential option (actually, do I? it all feels so in flux).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: njwes on January 25, 2021, 04:40:40 PM
Does "forming a new government" just mean trying to re-negotiate Italia Viva back into the fray?

No, it can mean basically anything, although I assume that one is the preferential option (actually, do I? it all feels so in flux).

As best as you can tell, is the current Italian government situation very much changing day by day and all the politicians are just improvising as they go along? Or, do you think this was all part of some months long "plan" (even if sort of clumsy and shambolic) on the part of the governing parties and Italia Viva? Because all of the Conte government drama and activity in the last month seems sort of unnecessarily chaotic and destabilizing lol


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 25, 2021, 05:56:12 PM
Does "forming a new government" just mean trying to re-negotiate Italia Viva back into the fray?

No, it can mean basically anything, although I assume that one is the preferential option (actually, do I? it all feels so in flux).

As best as you can tell, is the current Italian government situation very much changing day by day and all the politicians are just improvising as they go along? Or, do you think this was all part of some months long "plan" (even if sort of clumsy and shambolic) on the part of the governing parties and Italia Viva? Because all of the Conte government drama and activity in the last month seems sort of unnecessarily chaotic and destabilizing lol

It may be part of a "plan" on part of Italia Viva, but I strongly doubt anyone else was intending this (especially the other governing parties - I don't see what they gain out of this). Conte may play 3D chess sometimes, but definitely not 12D chess. And you know, all of Italy's history is sort of unnecessarily chaotic and destabilizing. :P


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 26, 2021, 02:17:27 AM
Does "forming a new government" just mean trying to re-negotiate Italia Viva back into the fray?

No, it can mean basically anything, although I assume that one is the preferential option (actually, do I? it all feels so in flux).

As best as you can tell, is the current Italian government situation very much changing day by day and all the politicians are just improvising as they go along? Or, do you think this was all part of some months long "plan" (even if sort of clumsy and shambolic) on the part of the governing parties and Italia Viva? Because all of the Conte government drama and activity in the last month seems sort of unnecessarily chaotic and destabilizing lol

It may be part of a "plan" on part of Italia Viva, but I strongly doubt anyone else was intending this (especially the other governing parties - I don't see what they gain out of this). Conte may play 3D chess sometimes, but definitely not 12D chess. And you know, all of Italy's history is sort of unnecessarily chaotic and destabilizing. :P

Yeah, I think each of the parties involved are gambling rather than planning. Some of the gambles might pay off, others will not. We'll find out soon enough which (or will we even? maybe each side finds a way to draw it out as long as possible).

Either way, Salvini ought to be feeling better about his position than he has since the Summer 2019. I hope if we get some type of at least short-term governmental agreement, the parties manage to make a more proportional election law before we go to the polls again.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 26, 2021, 12:46:23 PM
Giuseppe Conte resigned today, in the end. The crisis of government has officially started. Of course the Conte II government will remain in charge for current affairs until the next one is sworn in. If the crisis lasts long enough, its length could surpass that of the Gentiloni and Monti governments. Let alone if God forbid we go to new elections.
Going by people, it feels very weird, but Conte is now less than two months away from surpassing Renzi for time spent as head of government.

Now all bets are off, I guess. The wild ride is going to get even more wild.

Either way, Salvini Meloni ought to be feeling better about his her position than she has since the Summer 2019. I hope if we get some type of at least short-term governmental agreement, the parties manage to make a more proportional election law before we go to the polls again.

FTFY


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: jaichind on January 26, 2021, 12:51:41 PM
I may be naïve but it seems to me it would be pretty easy for Conte to round up some FI and IV Senator to back his new government.  They would all be too petrified of a snap election where they would lose their seats.  Getting FI onboard seems the way to avoid having IV as the single point of failure for Conte III.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 26, 2021, 12:55:41 PM
()


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 26, 2021, 01:56:53 PM
I may be naïve but it seems to me it would be pretty easy for Conte to round up some FI and IV Senator to back his new government.  They would all be too petrified of a snap election where they would lose their seats.  Getting FI onboard seems the way to avoid having IV as the single point of failure for Conte III.

And that's exactly what he's trying to do. However, it appears that right now Berlusconi believe that his political survival requires hugging his right+wing partners as tightly as possible, and he has enough pull to enforce discipline in his own party. This might change though.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 27, 2021, 12:58:07 PM
A new euRopEist CentRist parliamentary group has been founded in the Senate. It is called "Europeisti-MAIE-Centro Democratico" (MAIE being a hilarious party representing Italians abroad - Antonio may have more to say about this). The group among other people "borrowed" PD Senator Tatjana Rojc (who remains a member of PD) to reach the magic number of 10, which is sad because I would have much respect for a writer and literary critic representing the Slovenian minority in Parliament, as long as she doesn't make silly stuff like this. Also the group seems to be taking yet other random indies with it and growing beyond 10, so that move was useless.
Some of these people are implying that they would immediately back Conte if there were an election and he got into the fray... which would be more pukeworthy than Monti's Scelta Civica back in 2013 honestly.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 27, 2021, 01:35:34 PM
Also totally unrelated but I am enjoying this thread much more than I would have expected when I first entered it (as can be seen in my very first post here), which I attribute to a variety of reasons:

- I am less of a knee-jerk contrarian (and possibly more of a leftist) than I was last August.
- The Lega ilk have not been in the news that much since they stopped being in government, which means I don't have to suffer a bunch of people (foreigners especially) debating iS sAlvIni a FasCisT and other similar things that get to my nerves.
- I have in some sense taken control of the thread's day-to-day (sorry, Antonio).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 27, 2021, 10:34:45 PM
Also totally unrelated but I am enjoying this thread much more than I would have expected when I first entered it (as can be seen in my very first post here), which I attribute to a variety of reasons:

- I am less of a knee-jerk contrarian (and possibly more of a leftist) than I was last August.

<3 <3 <3


Quote
- The Lega ilk have not been in the news that much since they stopped being in government, which means I don't have to suffer a bunch of people (foreigners especially) debating iS sAlvIni a FasCisT and other similar things that get to my nerves.

Oh, just you wait until the right wins the next election (which might be very soon). I'm fully prepared to doom for the next 5 years.


Quote
- I have in some sense taken control of the thread's day-to-day (sorry, Antonio).

lmao, no worries :D I'm clearly getting too old for this sh*t, so I guess my time has come to pass the torch to the new generation. :P


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 29, 2021, 07:54:25 PM
Sergio Mattarella today conferred an explorative mandate to President of the Chamber Roberto Fico (M5S). I doubt it will bring to anything, but in any case, Fico has time till Tuesday to, well, explore.
PD and M5S want Conte. IV keeps saying "we want to have a peaceful debate and find points of convergence bla bla bla". Salvini is calling for new elections, but maybe kinda sorta also for a centre-right government without passing from the ballot.
Mattarella has said that a new government is to be found fast.

Also PD is seriously getting on my nerves with all the appeals to EurOpeisM. Is it so difficult to say "we don't want a right-wing government" instead?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Estrella on January 29, 2021, 08:04:23 PM
Apologies for this Tenderism, but I just wanted to note that Roberto Fico became President of the Chamber two days after Robert Fico resigned as PM of Slovakia and was succeeded by a guy with an Italian surname.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 29, 2021, 08:47:19 PM
Apologies for this Tenderism, but I just wanted to note that Roberto Fico became President of the Chamber two days after Robert Fico resigned as PM of Slovakia and was succeeded by a guy with an Italian surname.

If that is true, RIP Italy :(


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: brucejoel99 on January 29, 2021, 09:11:07 PM
Definitely a stupid question but asking those of you who actually know & follow Italian politics on an active basis because I have no earthly ability to even attempt to garner an answer myself: what, in your opinion, is the most likely outcome of all of this?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Estrella on January 29, 2021, 09:15:57 PM
Apologies for this Tenderism, but I just wanted to note that Roberto Fico became President of the Chamber two days after Robert Fico resigned as PM of Slovakia and was succeeded by a guy with an Italian surname.

If that is true, RIP Italy :(

In case you're curious about the Slovak equivalent of Roberto Fico (i.e. speaker of the legislature)...




Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 30, 2021, 12:17:46 AM
Sergio Mattarella today conferred an explorative mandate to President of the Chamber Roberto Fico (M5S). I doubt it will bring to anything, but in any case, Fico has time till Tuesday to, well, explore.
PD and M5S want Conte. IV keeps saying "we want to have a peaceful debate and find points of convergence bla bla bla". Salvini is calling for new elections, but maybe kinda sorta also for a centre-right government without passing from the ballot.
Mattarella has said that a new government is to be found fast.

Also PD is seriously getting on my nerves with all the appeals to EurOpeisM. Is it so difficult to say "we don't want a right-wing government" instead?

I mean, they are in the uncomfortable situation of needing to court right-wingers to avoid a right-wing government. That does mean some rhetorical appeals to common values are required.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 30, 2021, 12:20:12 AM
Definitely a stupid question but asking those of you who actually know & follow Italian politics on an active basis because I have no earthly ability to even attempt to garner an answer myself: what, in your opinion, is the most likely outcome of all of this?

At this point, I think either they patch things up with Renzi, or we're headed for new elections (which may be delayed slightly with a short-lived "national unity government" taking over for a few months). The possibility of a Conte III government without Renzi but with enough support in the Senate from miscellaneous centrists and party-switchers doesn't seem practicable at the moment, sadly.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 30, 2021, 04:07:27 AM
Sergio Mattarella today conferred an explorative mandate to President of the Chamber Roberto Fico (M5S). I doubt it will bring to anything, but in any case, Fico has time till Tuesday to, well, explore.
PD and M5S want Conte. IV keeps saying "we want to have a peaceful debate and find points of convergence bla bla bla". Salvini is calling for new elections, but maybe kinda sorta also for a centre-right government without passing from the ballot.
Mattarella has said that a new government is to be found fast.

Also PD is seriously getting on my nerves with all the appeals to EurOpeisM. Is it so difficult to say "we don't want a right-wing government" instead?

I mean, they are in the uncomfortable situation of needing to court right-wingers to avoid a right-wing government. That does mean some rhetorical appeals to common values are required.

That's not true unless you consider Italia Viva a right-wing party.
But also, I just wish there were a painless way out of the mess.


Totally unrelated but tonight I think I dreamt that Salvini (or some right-winger) was leaving government and that he was preannouncing that in his last rally/interview would have had just one question for the incoming left-wing government, something about gay couples (do you want to pass same-sex marriage? I guess).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 30, 2021, 04:58:30 AM
Sergio Mattarella today conferred an explorative mandate to President of the Chamber Roberto Fico (M5S). I doubt it will bring to anything, but in any case, Fico has time till Tuesday to, well, explore.
PD and M5S want Conte. IV keeps saying "we want to have a peaceful debate and find points of convergence bla bla bla". Salvini is calling for new elections, but maybe kinda sorta also for a centre-right government without passing from the ballot.
Mattarella has said that a new government is to be found fast.

Also PD is seriously getting on my nerves with all the appeals to EurOpeisM. Is it so difficult to say "we don't want a right-wing government" instead?

I mean, they are in the uncomfortable situation of needing to court right-wingers to avoid a right-wing government. That does mean some rhetorical appeals to common values are required.

That's not true unless you consider Italia Viva a right-wing party.
But also, I just wish there were a painless way out of the mess.


Totally unrelated but tonight I think I dreamt that Salvini (or some right-winger) was leaving government and that he was preannouncing that in his last rally/interview would have had just one question for the incoming left-wing government, something about gay couples (do you want to pass same-sex marriage? I guess).

Well, that's relatively optimistic.

I once had a dream where elections were coming up and Lega+FdI were guaranteed to win 60%+ of the vote, and the only question was which of the two parties would come out ahead and lead the coalition, so I was preparing to cast a very reluctant vote for FdI. Now that's nightmarish.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 30, 2021, 08:25:59 AM
Sergio Mattarella today conferred an explorative mandate to President of the Chamber Roberto Fico (M5S). I doubt it will bring to anything, but in any case, Fico has time till Tuesday to, well, explore.
PD and M5S want Conte. IV keeps saying "we want to have a peaceful debate and find points of convergence bla bla bla". Salvini is calling for new elections, but maybe kinda sorta also for a centre-right government without passing from the ballot.
Mattarella has said that a new government is to be found fast.

Also PD is seriously getting on my nerves with all the appeals to EurOpeisM. Is it so difficult to say "we don't want a right-wing government" instead?

I mean, they are in the uncomfortable situation of needing to court right-wingers to avoid a right-wing government. That does mean some rhetorical appeals to common values are required.

That's not true unless you consider Italia Viva a right-wing party.
But also, I just wish there were a painless way out of the mess.


Totally unrelated but tonight I think I dreamt that Salvini (or some right-winger) was leaving government and that he was preannouncing that in his last rally/interview would have had just one question for the incoming left-wing government, something about gay couples (do you want to pass same-sex marriage? I guess).

Well, that's relatively optimistic.

I once had a dream where elections were coming up and Lega+FdI were guaranteed to win 60%+ of the vote, and the only question was which of the two parties would come out ahead and lead the coalition, so I was preparing to cast a very reluctant vote for FdI. Now that's nightmarish.

If that nightmare came to pass I would take the opportunity to cast the most hilarious ballot of my life.
Or otherwise I would just hop on the bandwagon to try and get more Social Democracy But Reactionary and less Neoliberalism But Reactionary.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Estrella on January 30, 2021, 04:56:32 PM
I know that there are more important things to watch about Italy now, mafia gonna mafia after all, plus it doesn't really fit this thread - but could anybody tell me more about the 'Ndrangheta trial that started two weeks ago?

Slovakposting again, but I'm curious since there are well-founded suspicions that those guys had friends in high places here, up to and including Cabinet Office.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 30, 2021, 05:07:52 PM
I know that there are more important things to watch about Italy now, mafia gonna mafia after all, plus it doesn't really fit this thread - but could anybody tell me more about the 'Ndrangheta trial that started two weeks ago?

Slovakposting again, but I'm curious since there are well-founded suspicions that those guys had friends in high places here, up to and including Cabinet Office.

Yayyyyy!
I do remember that they talked about 'Ndrangheta Slovak connections.

This new process is a maxi-processo (using the terminology invented at the time of Falcone & Borsellino) with some three hundreds of defendants, all sorts of criminal charges, and basically the entire mafia of Vibo Valentia, based around the Mancuso family, is involved. It's hopefully a landmark point.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Estrella on January 30, 2021, 08:35:50 PM
RENZIMANIA



Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 30, 2021, 08:47:05 PM
RENZIMANIA

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1355525215938342912

LOL!

2.4% for Italia Viva is actually below their polling average.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 30, 2021, 09:06:46 PM
What's with all the tiny irrelevant left of centre parties? Why are there so many of them?

And more importantly, will that hurt PD in some way?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 30, 2021, 09:52:36 PM
What's with all the tiny irrelevant left of centre parties? Why are there so many of them?

And more importantly, will that hurt PD in some way?

Because:

- the Greens want to pretend they're relevant
- the Radicals (+Europa) need to exist because otherwise who would the overedumucated liberal bourgeoisie and the #woke university kids vote for?
- Renzi gonna Renzi
- Calenda refused to be in a party in government with the M5S, but also didn't join +E because reasons
- the more hard-edged social democrats need their own party/coalition (La Sinistra), understandably

And of course there are the half dozen k-onmmunist parties, all basically irrelevant, all presumably hating each other's guts, and of which PC is the largest.

Well, Italia Viva and Azione definitely hurt PD's standing in the polls. It's impossible to know about the others. As for the future, it depends on what will be the electoral law and what will be the coalitions, both of which are question marks.

But really, personalistic parties is one of Italy's favourite sports in the last quarter century, and this gives no sign to be changing.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: FrancoAgo on February 01, 2021, 12:35:13 PM
Elections update
The next spring would be a round of 1285 mayor elections
within Roma, Milano, Napoli, Torino, Bologna and Trieste

At moment the 11th April would be the regional elections in Calabria


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: parochial boy on February 01, 2021, 03:58:49 PM
Who is claiming they're going to vote Italia Viva anyway? I mean, Renzi fanboys, but who the christ is a Renzi fanboy in this the year 2021?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 01, 2021, 04:24:15 PM
Who is claiming they're going to vote Italia Viva anyway? I mean, Renzi fanboys, but who the christ is a Renzi fanboy in this the year 2021?

A friend of mine (sort of) is a Renzi fanboy (sort of - he was more of one some years ago) though he isn't in Italia Viva and apparently he's leaning towards Azione.

Also my paternal grandfather, of all people, is now an Italia Viva voter and I'm still trying to understand why - it might have to do with whatever local administrator he's friends with or something. He's basically an old school Christian democrat and I wouldn't call him a Renzi fanboy really.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 01, 2021, 05:30:24 PM
what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Estrella on February 01, 2021, 05:59:33 PM
what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 01, 2021, 07:37:27 PM
Tomorrow (well, today, because it's past midnight in Italy) Roberto Fico, the man of Slovak coincidences*, should refer to Sergio Mattarella about his, ahem, government explorations. I am not sure what he is going to say, really.

And to add to what Estrella had said about the right-wing, it is clear that Lega has bled plenty of votes to FdI in the last year and a half, and also that many of these votes hadn't been in Lega for long.



*it should be noted that Roberto Fico is read ['fiko] whereas Robert Fico is read ['fitsɔ].


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Estrella on February 01, 2021, 07:54:50 PM
And to add to what Estrella had said about the right-wing, it is clear that Lega has bled plenty of votes to FdI in the last year and a half, and also that many of these votes hadn't been in Lega for long.

I recall that back in 2019 Fratelli actually won some seats in northern regions. If the next election takes place with polling numbers like we have now (obvs a big if), could we see a result where Lega does decently in the Mezzogiorno, but Fratelli also do decently in the North?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 01, 2021, 08:06:16 PM
And to add to what Estrella had said about the right-wing, it is clear that Lega has bled plenty of votes to FdI in the last year and a half, and also that many of these votes hadn't been in Lega for long.

I recall that back in 2019 Fratelli actually won some seats in northern regions. If the next election takes place with polling numbers like we have now (obvs a big if), could we see a result where Lega does decently in the Mezzogiorno, but Fratelli also do decently in the North?

I am not sure what seats you mean (in the European Parliament? Yeah, but that's not very surprising) but what you are describing now for the next election is the modal outcome. Of course Lega will do much better in the North regardless, and Fratelli d'Italia will most likely do better in the South (but best of all in the Centre, or precisely in what we can call "enlarged Lazio"), but that's beside the point.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Estrella on February 01, 2021, 10:22:42 PM
And to add to what Estrella had said about the right-wing, it is clear that Lega has bled plenty of votes to FdI in the last year and a half, and also that many of these votes hadn't been in Lega for long.

I recall that back in 2019 Fratelli actually won some seats in northern regions. If the next election takes place with polling numbers like we have now (obvs a big if), could we see a result where Lega does decently in the Mezzogiorno, but Fratelli also do decently in the North?

I am not sure what seats you mean (in the European Parliament? Yeah, but that's not very surprising) but what you are describing now for the next election is the modal outcome. Of course Lega will do much better in the North regardless, and Fratelli d'Italia will most likely do better in the South (but best of all in the Centre, or precisely in what we can call "enlarged Lazio"), but that's beside the point.

Yeah, I meant the EP. But - well, I'm not sure if I misunderstood your answer or you misunderstood my question. What I meant is, FdI will do well in the south/enlarged Lazio, but will Lega still keep a significant vote in those places? And vice versa.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 01, 2021, 10:29:14 PM
what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI
So is meloni and salvini like a sibling rivalry with as berlusconi the father?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 01, 2021, 10:33:25 PM
Yeah, I meant the EP. But - well, I'm not sure if I misunderstood your answer or you misunderstood my question. What I meant is, FdI will do well in the south/enlarged Lazio, but will Lega still keep a significant vote in those places? And vice versa.

Yes, my answer was that it will keep a signficant vote in those places, and vice versa. I think the results of the regional elections (as unreliable as they may be) point in that direction too.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Estrella on February 01, 2021, 10:49:36 PM
what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI
So is meloni and salvini like a sibling rivalry with as berlusconi the father?

More like adoptive, now estranged father. The movements they represent precede Berlusconi's 1990s entry into politics and as things stand now, they're better off without him (it's not like he's relevant anymore).

Lega (until very recently Lega Nord, let's not forget) was born out of a Northern regionalist/separatist* movement who thought the central government was too strong and taxes should be lower. They also used to be quite shockingly racist against Southerners.

Fratelli are a descendant of National Alliance and its predecessor, the fascist Italian Social Movement. These people thought that the central government is too weak and spending should be higher. They got their support from regions that benefited most from Mussolini's regime - South and swamps-turned-suburbs around Rome.

Tellingly, when Berlusconi tried to unite Italian right back in 1994, he had to make two separate alliance: one with Lega in the North, one with the National Alliance in the south - they just couldn't stomach being in one room with each other (and they didn't and Silvio's first government fell apart after like a year). Relations slowly improved to the current level of "sibling rivalry", but it's still a rivalry.

* but it's not like they were ever seriously serious about it


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 01, 2021, 10:52:58 PM
Lega (until very recently Lega Nord, let's not forget) was born out of a Northern regionalist/separatist* movement who thought the central government was too strong and taxes should be lower. They also used to be quite shockingly racist against Southerners.

Fratelli are a descendant of National Alliance and its predecessor, the fascist Italian Social Movement. These people thought that the central government is too weak and spending should be higher. They got their support from regions that benefited most from Mussolini's regime - South and swamps-turned-suburbs around Rome.

Not shocking to anyone who knows something about Italian culture tbh.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 02, 2021, 05:18:49 AM
what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI
So is meloni and salvini like a sibling rivalry with as berlusconi the father?

More like adoptive, now estranged father. The movements they represent precede Berlusconi's 1990s entry into politics and as things stand now, they're better off without him (it's not like he's relevant anymore).

Lega (until very recently Lega Nord, let's not forget) was born out of a Northern regionalist/separatist* movement who thought the central government was too strong and taxes should be lower. They also used to be quite shockingly racist against Southerners.

Fratelli are a descendant of National Alliance and its predecessor, the fascist Italian Social Movement. These people thought that the central government is too weak and spending should be higher. They got their support from regions that benefited most from Mussolini's regime - South and swamps-turned-suburbs around Rome.

Tellingly, when Berlusconi tried to unite Italian right back in 1994, he had to make two separate alliance: one with Lega in the North, one with the National Alliance in the south - they just couldn't stomach being in one room with each other (and they didn't and Silvio's first government fell apart after like a year). Relations slowly improved to the current level of "sibling rivalry", but it's still a rivalry.

* but it's not like they were ever seriously serious about it
Who is berlusconi successor btw the man has to be grooming someone? Who isn’t a underage.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Estrella on February 02, 2021, 07:53:13 AM
what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI
So is meloni and salvini like a sibling rivalry with as berlusconi the father?

More like adoptive, now estranged father. The movements they represent precede Berlusconi's 1990s entry into politics and as things stand now, they're better off without him (it's not like he's relevant anymore).

Lega (until very recently Lega Nord, let's not forget) was born out of a Northern regionalist/separatist* movement who thought the central government was too strong and taxes should be lower. They also used to be quite shockingly racist against Southerners.

Fratelli are a descendant of National Alliance and its predecessor, the fascist Italian Social Movement. These people thought that the central government is too weak and spending should be higher. They got their support from regions that benefited most from Mussolini's regime - South and swamps-turned-suburbs around Rome.

Tellingly, when Berlusconi tried to unite Italian right back in 1994, he had to make two separate alliance: one with Lega in the North, one with the National Alliance in the south - they just couldn't stomach being in one room with each other (and they didn't and Silvio's first government fell apart after like a year). Relations slowly improved to the current level of "sibling rivalry", but it's still a rivalry.

* but it's not like they were ever seriously serious about it
Who is berlusconi successor btw the man has to be grooming someone? Who isn’t a underage.

No one. The crumbling of Berlusconi started long ago; just after his 2008 landslide victory, in fact. The events of how exactly it happened would be prime tragicomedy material, but it was basically like this:
- The economy went to shxt and took Silvio's popularity down with it
- He lost his parliamentary majority and had no alternative but to support an unpopular technocratic government
- Then he lost an election but had to enter a coalition with the left to make the country at least a little less ungovernable
 - Which, unsurprisingly made him even more unpopular and the psychodrama of his exit from said coalition didn't help
- Finally, he was prosecuted for corruption, expelled from Senate and banned from holding public office. By then, Salvnini had already eclipsed him and the only way was down. The small bump before the 2018 election turned out to be a mirage.

The above is one half of why there is no one who could be Berlusconi's successor; the brand is just toxic. The other half is that Berlusconi is, well, Berlusconi - there is no one who could replicate that magic. The same thing is going to happen on America: Trump Jr or Ivanka might pretend to have some of that special appeal, but there is only one real Trump: the Donald.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 02, 2021, 09:00:37 AM
The above is one half of why there is no one who could be Berlusconi's successor; the brand is just toxic. The other half is that Berlusconi is, well, Berlusconi - there is no one who could replicate that magic. The same thing is going to happen on America: Trump Jr or Ivanka might pretend to have some of that special appeal, but there is only one real Trump: the Donald.

Technically speaking the successor of Berlusconi has to be Antonio Tajani, but I both doubt Silvio will leave the leadership of the party as long as he is alive and doubt that Forza Italia will be able to survive his death.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Estrella on February 02, 2021, 10:01:31 AM
The above is one half of why there is no one who could be Berlusconi's successor; the brand is just toxic. The other half is that Berlusconi is, well, Berlusconi - there is no one who could replicate that magic. The same thing is going to happen on America: Trump Jr or Ivanka might pretend to have some of that special appeal, but there is only one real Trump: the Donald.

Technically speaking the successor of Berlusconi has to be Antonio Tajani, but I both doubt Silvio will leave the leadership of the party as long as he is alive and doubt that Forza Italia will be able to survive his death.

I wonder, who are those 5-10% of people that would still vote for him?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 02, 2021, 10:23:42 AM
The above is one half of why there is no one who could be Berlusconi's successor; the brand is just toxic. The other half is that Berlusconi is, well, Berlusconi - there is no one who could replicate that magic. The same thing is going to happen on America: Trump Jr or Ivanka might pretend to have some of that special appeal, but there is only one real Trump: the Donald.

Technically speaking the successor of Berlusconi has to be Antonio Tajani, but I both doubt Silvio will leave the leadership of the party as long as he is alive and doubt that Forza Italia will be able to survive his death.

I wonder, who are those 5-10% of people that would still vote for him?

- Southerners who are right-wing but not right-wing enough for FdI
- teh b0urge0isie
- "Liberal internationalist" Christian democrats
- People in retirement age, who understandably have a particularly bad opinion of extremisms

etc. etc. [note that there is overlap among these groups]

Also according to exit polls surprisingly many unemployed people?

I mean, if you go past the fact that Berlusconi is an unprincipled clownish person (which apparently is not so difficult to do) and Forza Italia his personalistic party, voting for it is makes a lot of sense if you have a certain ideological predisposition.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 02, 2021, 03:34:05 PM
what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI
So is meloni and salvini like a sibling rivalry with as berlusconi the father?

More like adoptive, now estranged father. The movements they represent precede Berlusconi's 1990s entry into politics and as things stand now, they're better off without him (it's not like he's relevant anymore).

Lega (until very recently Lega Nord, let's not forget) was born out of a Northern regionalist/separatist* movement who thought the central government was too strong and taxes should be lower. They also used to be quite shockingly racist against Southerners.

Fratelli are a descendant of National Alliance and its predecessor, the fascist Italian Social Movement. These people thought that the central government is too weak and spending should be higher. They got their support from regions that benefited most from Mussolini's regime - South and swamps-turned-suburbs around Rome.

Tellingly, when Berlusconi tried to unite Italian right back in 1994, he had to make two separate alliance: one with Lega in the North, one with the National Alliance in the south - they just couldn't stomach being in one room with each other (and they didn't and Silvio's first government fell apart after like a year). Relations slowly improved to the current level of "sibling rivalry", but it's still a rivalry.

* but it's not like they were ever seriously serious about it
Who is berlusconi successor btw the man has to be grooming someone? Who isn’t a underage.

No one. The crumbling of Berlusconi started long ago; just after his 2008 landslide victory, in fact. The events of how exactly it happened would be prime tragicomedy material, but it was basically like this:
- The economy went to shxt and took Silvio's popularity down with it
- He lost his parliamentary majority and had no alternative but to support an unpopular technocratic government
- Then he lost an election but had to enter a coalition with the left to make the country at least a little less ungovernable
 - Which, unsurprisingly made him even more unpopular and the psychodrama of his exit from said coalition didn't help
- Finally, he was prosecuted for corruption, expelled from Senate and banned from holding public office. By then, Salvnini had already eclipsed him and the only way was down. The small bump before the 2018 election turned out to be a mirage.

The above is one half of why there is no one who could be Berlusconi's successor; the brand is just toxic. The other half is that Berlusconi is, well, Berlusconi - there is no one who could replicate that magic. The same thing is going to happen on America: Trump Jr or Ivanka might pretend to have some of that special appeal, but there is only one real Trump: the Donald.
Basically who ever follows him as leader will be the q meditators between brothers and league and what about salvini? Anyone likely to take his place once he done with politics?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 02, 2021, 03:36:03 PM
Fico has thrown in the towel. Renzi and M5S just couldn't find agreements on a number of key points including using the ESM and judicial reform. Honestly, as much as I like to beat on Renzi, it sounds like M5S was equally unwilling to make compromises. Both parties are just not serious about working with the other. It's just sad.

Anyway, Mattarella will now attempt to form a national unity government. His speech today was basically a plea to avoid snap elections, which would paralyze political activity for the next 4 or 5 months at a time when we absolutely need it. We'll have to see if that can work. Berlusconi at least has been open to it before.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 02, 2021, 03:36:22 PM
Basically who ever follows him as leader will be the q meditators between brothers and league and what about salvini? Anyone likely to take his place once he done with politics?

Salvini is less than 50 years old and still in a pretty good position. I don't see him being done with politics any time soon.



In other news, our friend Roberto Fico has "ascended the Hill" i.e. gone to the Quirinale palace and it seems that his response to Mattarella was that it wasn't possible to find an agreement.
Sergio Mattarella has announced that either we find a new government immediately or he dissolves Parliament.
I hear rumours about the possibility of Draghi government, but it is not clear to me how serious they are.

Oh lol, I was jinxed by Antonio. Whatever.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 02, 2021, 03:46:11 PM
The above is one half of why there is no one who could be Berlusconi's successor; the brand is just toxic. The other half is that Berlusconi is, well, Berlusconi - there is no one who could replicate that magic. The same thing is going to happen on America: Trump Jr or Ivanka might pretend to have some of that special appeal, but there is only one real Trump: the Donald.

Technically speaking the successor of Berlusconi has to be Antonio Tajani, but I both doubt Silvio will leave the leadership of the party as long as he is alive and doubt that Forza Italia will be able to survive his death.

I wonder, who are those 5-10% of people that would still vote for him?

- Southerners who are right-wing but not right-wing enough for FdI
- teh b0urge0isie
- "Liberal internationalist" Christian democrats
- People in retirement age, who understandably have a particularly bad opinion of extremisms

etc. etc. [note that there is overlap among these groups]

Also according to exit polls surprisingly many unemployed people?

I mean, if you go past the fact that Berlusconi is an unprincipled clownish person (which apparently is not so difficult to do) and Forza Italia his personalistic party, voting for it is makes a lot of sense if you have a certain ideological predisposition.
Who are southern league voters and norther fdi voters?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 02, 2021, 03:56:35 PM

Who are southern league voters and norther fdi voters?

Northern FdI voters may be nationalists, former neofascists, people who don't think the other parties on the right are right-wing or serious enough... mostly the same kind of people who vote FdI in the South, just there are a bit fewer of them.
Southern Lega voters pretty much didn't exist until five years ago or so, therefore it's more complicated, but I imagine many of them are attracted by Salvini's message specifically. They presumably don't care that much about Lega's history about ~terroni~ just like most people don't care that much that the predecessors of FdI were fascist or the pre-pre-predecessors of PD (in part) were communist.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 02, 2021, 04:00:42 PM
Mattarella supposedly meeting with Mario Draghi tomorrow at noon. Draghi has been rumored for months if not years as a potential consensus PM, so, you know, something to watch.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 02, 2021, 04:02:41 PM
Mattarella supposedly meeting with Mario Draghi tomorrow at noon. Draghi has been rumored for months if not years as a potential consensus PM, so, you know, something to watch.

Get us all ready for the "technical government"!

like dis if u cri evry tiem


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 02, 2021, 04:04:01 PM
Mattarella supposedly meeting with Mario Draghi tomorrow at noon. Draghi has been rumored for months if not years as a potential consensus PM, so, you know, something to watch.
A national unity government? Can’t wait to see this sh*tshow fall apart in a year


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Astatine on February 02, 2021, 04:15:09 PM
Regarding Berlusconi... In German there is a nice proverb: "Hast du einen Opa, dann schick ihn nach Europa" (If you have a grandpa, send him to Europe[an politics]).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Diouf on February 02, 2021, 04:52:59 PM
Mattarella supposedly meeting with Mario Draghi tomorrow at noon. Draghi has been rumored for months if not years as a potential consensus PM, so, you know, something to watch.

So in order for this to pass, I guess M5S will at least have to abstain? There is no majority if both Lega and M5S vote against, and I guess Salvini will vote against?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 02, 2021, 05:06:16 PM
Mattarella supposedly meeting with Mario Draghi tomorrow at noon. Draghi has been rumored for months if not years as a potential consensus PM, so, you know, something to watch.

So in order for this to pass, I guess M5S will at least have to abstain? There is no majority if both Lega and M5S vote against, and I guess Salvini will vote against?

Yes, the presumption would be that this government would be supported by every party except Lega and FdI. We're going to have to see if that's actually practicable. On paper, you'd think M5S would hate Draghi's "sinister Eurocrat" background, but in fact they've had some good things to say about him. It's really hard not to given that he almost single-handedly saved Southern Europe from economic implosion.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: FrancoAgo on February 02, 2021, 07:48:26 PM
Vote for Draghi for PD&M5SS will be a huge error, to the next election Salvini and Meloni will take 60% without FI; a this point try to do a Conte ter government w/o IV go to Senate if not get the confidence go to elections


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 03, 2021, 01:28:06 AM
Vote for Draghi for PD&M5SS will be a huge error, to the next election Salvini and Meloni will take 60% without FI; a this point try to do a Conte ter government w/o IV go to Senate if not get the confidence go to elections

Having elections right now would genuinely be really bad for Italy. For economic reasons, and also because the electoral law is absolute trash and needs to be made more proportional.

Get the EU money, vaccinate people, start getting the economy out of the ditch, and enact a proportional system. If we get to January 2022, give us the added bonus of another left-leaning President. Then we can go to vote.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: FrancoAgo on February 03, 2021, 05:11:09 AM
And get a far right government with ad huge majority in the parliament, i predict many constitutional laws


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 03, 2021, 05:35:38 AM
The logical thing to do is to pass a proportional law that eliminates "electoral coalitions", which don't make sense anyway in a proportional system and were only maintained by the Calderoli law because of that monstrous mAjOrity pRizE.
Which is how it worked during the First Party System, and how it works in Spain/Portugal/Belgium/Finland/the Netherlands/etc. by the way, even though I suspect people have now been conditioned to the idea that coalitions happen before the election.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 03, 2021, 10:38:12 AM
Sergio Mattarella has officially appointed Mario Draghi now.
He is likely going to find enough support for a government, but it remains to be seen from whom exactly.

M5S is insisting this must be "a political government, not a technical one". Silvio Berlusconi had expressed agnosticism about Draghi. Even Matteo Salvini has said "we don't have prejudices, we want to meet prof. Draghi so that we can listen, propose, and make our judgments" which may not mean anything but is a more open position that I might have expected. PD and LeU are saying a lot of programmatic things and that the centre-left must work coordinately. I don't know anything about Queen Giorgia.
Alessandro Di Battista, who famously represents the tankie wing of M5S, is furious and has proclaimed "Draghi is a no-go, let the establishment parties vote for him".


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: jaichind on February 03, 2021, 10:40:52 AM
If a Draghi government is formed without M5S support does that not mean a second wind for M5S in the next election for them to pick up the anti-establishment vote that it lost.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Conservatopia on February 03, 2021, 10:52:34 AM
Could somebody please give a overview of how the electoral law works at the moment?

What exactly does it mean that Lega and FI are in coalition?  Do you vote for the CDX or for individual parties within the coalition?  How do coalitions work in single member seats?

I think I recall that Sardinian Action ran with Lega at the last election.  However they aren't part of the CDX per se?  How does that work?

Likewise Raffaele Fitto had his own party (Direction which had ties to the Tories) which was inside NcI which in turn was part of the CDX.  What was going on there?

Sorry - a lot of questions about the complex law!


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 03, 2021, 01:06:52 PM
Could somebody please give a overview of how the electoral law works at the moment?

What exactly does it mean that Lega and FI are in coalition?  Do you vote for the CDX or for individual parties within the coalition?  How do coalitions work in single member seats?

I think I recall that Sardinian Action ran with Lega at the last election.  However they aren't part of the CDX per se?  How does that work?

Likewise Raffaele Fitto had his own party (Direction which had ties to the Tories) which was inside NcI which in turn was part of the CDX.  What was going on there?

Sorry - a lot of questions about the complex law!

Using the current electoral law:

1. You vote for a single list, and the vote is also transferred to the single-member constituency candidate put up by that list. Parties can form coalitions, which means that they all stand behind the same candidate in each constituency (though that candidate is officially affiliated to one of the lists that support him - or is an independent).

2. The Partito Sardo d'Azione (party) didn't run as an autonomous list in 2018, but ran some candidates inside the Lega lists. Lega in turn was one of the four lists inside the CDX coalition.

3. Likewise Fitto's party ran candidates inside the Noi con l'Italia lists. And NcI was one of the four lists inside the CDX coalition too.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Conservatopia on February 03, 2021, 01:24:48 PM
Could somebody please give a overview of how the electoral law works at the moment?

What exactly does it mean that Lega and FI are in coalition?  Do you vote for the CDX or for individual parties within the coalition?  How do coalitions work in single member seats?

I think I recall that Sardinian Action ran with Lega at the last election.  However they aren't part of the CDX per se?  How does that work?

Likewise Raffaele Fitto had his own party (Direction which had ties to the Tories) which was inside NcI which in turn was part of the CDX.  What was going on there?

Sorry - a lot of questions about the complex law!

Using the current electoral law:

1. You vote for a single list, and the vote is also transferred to the single-member constituency candidate put up by that list. Parties can form coalitions, which means that they all stand behind the same candidate in each constituency (though that candidate is officially affiliated to one of the lists that support him - or is an independent).

2. The Partito Sardo d'Azione (party) didn't run as an autonomous list in 2018, but ran some candidates inside the Lega lists. Lega in turn was one of the four lists inside the CDX coalition.

3. Likewise Fitto's party ran candidates inside the Noi con l'Italia lists. And NcI was one of the four lists inside the CDX coalition too.
Thanks for that!

So you only cast one vote?  And say I wanted to vote Lega on the list but didn't like the FI candidate in my constituency then tough my Lega vote counts towards that FI candidate's total?

That's naff if it's the case.  I'm all for MMP but it should be that you cast two votes - one for the list and one for the FPTP seat.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Diouf on February 03, 2021, 02:16:04 PM
Thanks for that!

So you only cast one vote?  And say I wanted to vote Lega on the list but didn't like the FI candidate in my constituency then tough my Lega vote counts towards that FI candidate's total?

That's naff if it's the case.  I'm all for MMP but it should be that you cast two votes - one for the list and one for the FPTP seat.

It's not a MMP system. There is no overall proportionality. It's a mixed system, where 37% of seats are distributed via FPTP and 63% via PR. So the significant share of FPTP seats, mean that the overall outcome can be quite disproportional.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera on February 03, 2021, 02:22:23 PM
Thanks for that!

So you only cast one vote?  And say I wanted to vote Lega on the list but didn't like the FI candidate in my constituency then tough my Lega vote counts towards that FI candidate's total?

That's naff if it's the case.  I'm all for MMP but it should be that you cast two votes - one for the list and one for the FPTP seat.

It's not a MMP system. There is no overall proportionality. It's a mixed system, where 37% of seats are distributed via FPTP and 63% via PR. So the significant share of FPTP seats, mean that the overall outcome can be quite disproportional.

Is it what's sometimes called "parallel voting"?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Diouf on February 03, 2021, 02:26:44 PM
Is it what's sometimes called "parallel voting"?

Yes, I have seen that term used. It is similar to the Hungarian system; just slightly more proportional as the FPTP share of seats in Hungary is all the way up at 53%.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 03, 2021, 02:42:42 PM
So you only cast one vote?  And say I wanted to vote Lega on the list but didn't like the FI candidate in my constituency then tough my Lega vote counts towards that FI candidate's total?

That's naff if it's the case.  I'm all for MMP but it should be that you cast two votes - one for the list and one for the FPTP seat.

Yes, you only cast one vote, which is one of the many stupid aspects of this law. And, as diouf said, it is not an MMP system.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: palandio on February 03, 2021, 03:13:01 PM
So you only cast one vote?  And say I wanted to vote Lega on the list but didn't like the FI candidate in my constituency then tough my Lega vote counts towards that FI candidate's total?

That's naff if it's the case.  I'm all for MMP but it should be that you cast two votes - one for the list and one for the FPTP seat.

Yes, you only cast one vote, which is one of the many stupid aspects of this law. And, as diouf said, it is not an MMP system.
In Germany ideas to introduce a Grabenwahlrecht ("moat electoral law") similar to the Rosatellum existed in the 60s. "Moat" because the expectation was that voters would cast a vote for one of CDU/CSU or SPD because of the FPTP part and that smaller parties would "fall into the moat" because there were 50% proportional seats, but no second vote. It was one of several issus that over time led to an alienation of the FDP from CDU/CSU and to the social-liberal coalition in 1969.

I think that for example in Italian regional and comune-level electoral law the disjoint vote is actually very questionable. With your governor/mayor vote you determine which coalition gets 60% (or a similar number) of the seats and then you can influence the composition of the other coalition with your list vote. That's nonsensical.

But the Rosatellum abolished the disjoint vote in a situation where this would not have been a problem. Therefore I think that the motivation was similar to the one behind the Grabenwahlrecht: Make this a two-coalition fight between center-left and center-right and prevent proportional votes for parties outside of the coalitions (in particular M5S). It just didn't work at all.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: brucejoel99 on February 03, 2021, 03:52:56 PM
Again, a potentially stupid question from somebody who doesn't actively pay attention to Italian politics outside of significant moments like this, but just genuinely curious: would Draghi be inclined to keep Conte on-board in a high-up position like foreign minister or something along those lines, or is Conte just done?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: FrancoAgo on February 03, 2021, 04:16:07 PM
Actually we have not a electoral law, the law is for the old number of parliament member
we need at minimum a new law with the new constituencies and districts


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 03, 2021, 04:57:19 PM
Actually we have not a electoral law, the law is for the old number of parliament member
we need at minimum a new law with the new constituencies and districts

Unfortunately, that law was already enacted as a decree a couple months ago. I'm afraid the Rosatellum will be quite operational if government formation fails and we go to news elections.


Again, a potentially stupid question from somebody who doesn't actively pay attention to Italian politics outside of significant moments like this, but just genuinely curious: would Draghi be inclined to keep Conte on-board in a high-up position like foreign minister or something along those lines, or is Conte just done?

That probably depends on M5S. If they 1. are willing to play ball with a Draghi government, and 2. are interested in sticking it out for Conte, then I'd expect Draghi  and other coalition partners to be okay with that. M5S' own behavior, though, is often harder to predict.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 03, 2021, 05:14:01 PM
Actually we have not a electoral law, the law is for the old number of parliament member
we need at minimum a new law with the new constituencies and districts

Well actually there are new constituencies and districts, redrawn in record time, and the Rosato law should be able to adapt to them.

https://www.youtrend.it/2020/11/28/nuovi-collegi-del-rosatellum-le-mappe-interattive-youtrend/

Actually we have not a electoral law, the law is for the old number of parliament member
we need at minimum a new law with the new constituencies and districts

Unfortunately, that law was already enacted as a decree a couple months ago. I'm afraid the Rosatellum will be quite operational if government formation fails and we go to news elections.

Yes. And I hate it, among other things because come on, what the frock does it mean to have single-member constituencies for the Senate that are almost as large as those for the American House of Representatives? Lmao

Also, the design is hilarious if you consider it was made by a centre-left government. They could have at least tried not to make a Milan Central and a Rome Central Camera constituencies that look perfectly made to waste centre-left votes.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 03, 2021, 05:19:16 PM
Yes. And I hate it, among other things because come on, what the frock does it mean to have single-member constituencies for the Senate that are almost as large as those for the American House of Representatives? Lmao

Also, the design is hilarious if you consider it was made by a centre-left government. They could have at least tried not to make a Milan Central and a Rome Central Camera constituencies that look perfectly made to waste centre-left votes.

The worst part about the Rosatellum is that it's not even REALLY a single-member constituency system. You have only one vote that counts for both party lists AND your constituency vote, so if you want to vote for a given party you're locked into supporting their candidate in the relevant constituency. That KILLS THE WHOLE POINT of single-member constituencies, since it means voters can't vote for candidates on their individual merits.

This law is a monstrosity. I'd honestly prefer the Porcellum, as at least it's more honest about what it's doing.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 03, 2021, 05:22:30 PM
Yes. And I hate it, among other things because come on, what the frock does it mean to have single-member constituencies for the Senate that are almost as large as those for the American House of Representatives? Lmao

Also, the design is hilarious if you consider it was made by a centre-left government. They could have at least tried not to make a Milan Central and a Rome Central Camera constituencies that look perfectly made to waste centre-left votes.

The worst part about the Rosatellum is that it's not even REALLY a single-member constituency system. You have only one vote that counts for both party lists AND your constituency vote, so if you want to vote for a given party you're locked into supporting their candidate in the relevant constituency. That KILLS THE WHOLE POINT of single-member constituencies, since it means voters can't vote for candidates on their individual merits.

This law is a monstrosity. I'd honestly prefer the Porcellum, as at least it's more honest about what it's doing.

I agree, though I don't prefer Porcellum in a million years, and if they hadn't cut the number of members of Parliament - ::) ::) ::) - I would have somewhat liked to keep this law for quite some time, as hideous as it is, because I'm freaking sick of having a new electoral law be written every half decade.

Also *checks all the recommends to my last Italy 2019 project thread* the old constituencies were quite fun.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 03, 2021, 05:26:26 PM
Yes. And I hate it, among other things because come on, what the frock does it mean to have single-member constituencies for the Senate that are almost as large as those for the American House of Representatives? Lmao

Also, the design is hilarious if you consider it was made by a centre-left government. They could have at least tried not to make a Milan Central and a Rome Central Camera constituencies that look perfectly made to waste centre-left votes.

The worst part about the Rosatellum is that it's not even REALLY a single-member constituency system. You have only one vote that counts for both party lists AND your constituency vote, so if you want to vote for a given party you're locked into supporting their candidate in the relevant constituency. That KILLS THE WHOLE POINT of single-member constituencies, since it means voters can't vote for candidates on their individual merits.

This law is a monstrosity. I'd honestly prefer the Porcellum, as at least it's more honest about what it's doing.

I agree, though I don't prefer Porcellum in a million years, and if they hadn't cut the number of members of Parliament - ::) ::) ::) - I would have somewhat liked to keep this law for quite some time, as hideous as it is, because I'm freaking sick of having a new electoral law be written every half decade.

Also *checks all the recommends to my last Italy 2019 project thread* the old constituencies were quite fun.

Honestly, the Mattarellum was a fine system. It had decoupled votes that allowed voters to pick their preferred local candidate, fairly small constituencies, and compensatory PR to ensure that the overall parliament wasn't too disproportional. There was some room for abuse with the shell parties, but it wasn't that big a deal all considered. We could have easily gone back to it in 2018, but nooooo, we had to invent this abomination instead.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: FrancoAgo on February 03, 2021, 07:35:55 PM
thanks for the update, they did it the last days of the year


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 03, 2021, 08:03:12 PM
Honestly, the Mattarellum was a fine system. It had decoupled votes that allowed voters to pick their preferred local candidate, fairly small constituencies, and compensatory PR to ensure that the overall parliament wasn't too disproportional. There was some room for abuse with the shell parties, but it wasn't that big a deal all considered. We could have easily gone back to it in 2018, but nooooo, we had to invent this abomination instead.

I agree, it was better than this (although the scorporo in practice was totally nonsensical - I don't know why they didn't devise a better system for proportionality). And of course, the smaller constituencies were a great thing.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: FrancoAgo on February 03, 2021, 08:50:21 PM
imo the best system was the original, the proportional before of the Mattarellum,
the alone change that could been acceptable was to delete the CUN and redesign the districts* in same population fashion, this only for the Chamber. the Senate law was ok

* but not grow the districts number, stay with around 30 district so to get around 20 deputies for each


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: MRCVzla on February 03, 2021, 10:19:37 PM
Likewise Raffaele Fitto had his own party (Direction which had ties to the Tories) which was inside NcI which in turn was part of the CDX.  What was going on there?

Sorry - a lot of questions about the complex law!
3. Likewise Fitto's party ran candidates inside the Noi con l'Italia lists. And NcI was one of the four lists inside the CDX coalition too.

Fitto's party (Direzione Italia) merged with Fratelli d'Italia since 2019 (and was the access card for Queen Giorgia to enter into ECR party and EP group).

I believe that the current electoral horizon for the minor centrist parties within CDX, have would be either to remake a "quarta gamba" between Noi con l'Italia, UDC and Cambiamo! or that some of them join the lists of the major CDX parties (likely NCI and UDC in the FI list while Toti and allies in the FdI one) in the event that a new proportional electoral law is done.

If the Rosatellum remains in force, members of these parties could run as candidates in safe single-member districts for the CDX (as happened with the candidates elected by NCI-UDC in 2018, although at that time they expected better results in the South, overshadowed for the outstanding performance of the M5S).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 04, 2021, 06:47:27 AM
Why has Italy changed its election law so many times anyways?

To be honest I think the way to go for Italy would be a simple "return to basics", abolish the FPTP seats and simply use pure PR (with an election threshold at say, 3%); which to my understanding is what Italy already did before 1994 anyways?

If Italy wants to a majoritarian system instead, my take is to simply use good old FPTP with nothing else, like the UK or US do. Perhaps in a 2 round system format like France does in legislative elections.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 04, 2021, 07:56:32 AM
Why has Italy changed its election law so many times anyways?

To be honest I think the way to go for Italy would be a simple "return to basics", abolish the FPTP seats and simply use pure PR (with an election threshold at say, 3%); which to my understanding is what Italy already did before 1994 anyways?

If Italy wants to a majoritarian system instead, my take is to simply use good old FPTP with nothing else, like the UK or US do. Perhaps in a 2 round system format like France does in legislative elections.

I agree that the best law was the one used (at the Chamber) during the First Party System.

As to all the changes:

Part 1.
In the late 1980's and especially early 1990's everything about the political system was seen as pretty stale and people were generally fed up, calls for muh reforms were quite common. Now, you can see how proposal for majoritarianism worked quite well there.
Mani pulite was opening a Pandora's box on, well, everything, and that includes this front. In 1993 the leader of the "Majoritarian System Good" camp, Mariotto Segni, managed to call a referendum on the Senate electoral law. Brief background: the Senate law was actually a mixed system, but the majoritarian part only activated when if one candidate got 65% of the votes in their constituency, which was basically impossible, so in practice it worked like a proportional law. It was so obvious to everyone that the constituencies were just a pro forma that they were never redrawn, even though by the 1990's some had triple the population of others. The referendum abolished the 65% threshold and opened up to (mixed) majoritarianism.

Part 2.
Literally all Italian ones in the last thirty years.

1993
75% majoritarian and 25% proportional for no reason at all. No actually the reason was to force bipolarism upon people without totally scrapping the proportional.
The proportional part was closed lists for the Chamber of Deputies. For the Senate it was literally giving seats to the best losers in the region.
Ah and there was this magical thing called scorporo which basically meant that majoritarian candidates were linked to proportional lists and when you won your constituency your votes got subtracted from your list's proportional tally and it was just hilariously minoritarian until politicians got smarter and in 2001 both the left and the right just linked all their majoritarian candidates to fake lists to shift the scorporo burden on the fake lists.
After that it was decided to make a new law.

2005
100% proportional but had much bigger problems.
Literally if your coalition took 26% of the votes and the other coalition took 25% of the votes, you were automatically guaranteed 55% of the seats. However only in the Chamber of Deputies because in the Senate it worked on a regional basis (which tended to neutralize the effect if different coalitions won different regions).
Also closed lists, again.
In the end it was declared unconstitutional lol.

2017
37% majoritarian and 63% proportional for no reason at all. No actually the reason is that the Senate has half the seats of the Chamber of Deputies and they thought recycling the 1993 Senate map for the 2017 Chamber was a clever idea saving a lot of work to lawmakers.
The proportional part is closed lists. You can't even make panachage. Choice level = 0.
Hilarious gerrymandering in the Senate (really, look at the Emilia-Romagna map, it doesn't make any sense).
This is going to end soon since too bad we have just cut the number of Deputies and Senators - because we are stupid :) :) :) - and this is now obsolete.

To add to that, the 2005 law change was made by the centre-right government I think in part because it perceived itself as disfavoured by the single-member constituencies or something like that.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: njwes on February 04, 2021, 05:25:39 PM
Apologies if this was addressed way back in the post, but if the next election produces a right-wing majority and FI, Lega, and FdI agree to form a government (which I'm assuming they would) how much could such a government actually get done and accomplish? I understand that they're both* positioned as "right-wing" and populist-y (maybe more accurate for FdI than Lega) and that they've both positioned themselves as somewhat anti-left/anti-globalist/anti-neoliberal--finding the right terminology here is tricky lol--but how much common ground actually exists between them in terms of reforms, laws, regulations, policy etc that they wish to enact (or maybe repeal)?

*Using "both" because I assume that FI wouldn't have a ton of say in a right-wing government's actual policy, but I could be totally wrong.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 04, 2021, 05:59:50 PM
Apologies if this was addressed way back in the post, but if the next election produces a right-wing majority and FI, Lega, and FdI agree to form a government (which I'm assuming they would) how much could such a government actually get done and accomplish? I understand that they're both* positioned as "right-wing" and populist-y (maybe more accurate for FdI than Lega) and that they've both positioned themselves as somewhat anti-left/anti-globalist/anti-neoliberal--finding the right terminology here is tricky lol--but how much common ground actually exists between them in terms of reforms, laws, regulations, policy etc that they wish to enact (or maybe repeal)?

*Using "both" because I assume that FI wouldn't have a ton of say in a right-wing government's actual policy, but I could be totally wrong.

1. Forza Italia would not have a ton to say but it would have still a bit to say (in part because most likely its support would be decisive for such a government, just like the support of Italia Viva was decisive for Conte II).

2. Actually it is Lega that has the more populist-y posturing (and more downscale electorate), even though Fratelli d'Italia is likely a bit more populist/interventionist on concrete policy.

3. I think they share enough common ground to pass, or try to pass, quite a substantive agenda, but I would guess that a big hurdle may arise when the topic of regionalism comes up, to make an obvious example. There may be some attrition on some soshul ishoos as well, but it's unclear.*

4. I know what you are trying to get at by "anti-neoliberal" but it's never a bad day to remind that using the original definition of the word the Italian right-wing is, well, pretty neoliberal.

*it would be absolutely hilarious if, while in government together, Salvini tried to give some concreteness to his pipe dream of reopening brothels and Meloni destroyed his proposal playing the #feminist card


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: JoeInator on February 04, 2021, 08:20:24 PM
I'm sorry if this has already been asked, but I'm totally lost on how all this government formation stuff works. Could someone please explain to me how these multi-party coalitions form and collapse and how someone who isn't a member/leader of one of the parties in government (someone like Conte or Draghi) gets to become Prime Minister? Also, I've heard the terms "center-left coalition" and "center-right coalition" being thrown around. Which parties would fall into each category and are there any that don't fall into either?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 04, 2021, 08:44:02 PM
I'm sorry if this has already been asked, but I'm totally lost on how all this government formation stuff works. Could someone please explain to me how these multi-party coalitions form and collapse and how someone who isn't a member/leader of one of the parties in government (someone like Conte or Draghi) gets to become Prime Minister? Also, I've heard the terms "center-left coalition" and "center-right coalition" being thrown around. Which parties would fall into each category and are there any that don't fall into either?

1. The President of the Republic, who is the head of state, appoints someone to lead the government. That someone consults with various parliamentary forces to see if they are able to garner enough support for a new government. If they believe they have, they present their list of ministers to the President of the Republic, who normally will accept it, and proceed to make the new government take the oath of office, which marks its official beginning. After that the new government needs to receive the confidence of both houses of Parliament within a fixed time (20 days if I recall correctly?). If they somehow lose either motion of confidence, they must resign and the process can start anew.

2. Multi-party coalitions form because basically never a single party has a majority in Parliament.

3. The government may also fall if a motion of no confidence is called on it by the Parliament and it passes, which forces it to resign. Or if the President of the Council of Ministers (i.e. the head of government) resigns by personal choice for whatever reason.

4. The President of the Republic has the right to appoint whomever they wish as head of government. Usually it is a member of Parliament, of course, but times like these where it is not clear which kind of 'natural' governing majority may exist in Parliament are more prone to see the appointment of external figures.

5. The centre-right coalition is currently Forza Italia, Lega, Fratelli d'Italia, and technically also a galaxy of tiny parties mostly working as satellites to FI. The centre-left coalition is Partito Democratico, and then it's not completely clear because left-leaning parties tend to be much more willy-nilly about alliances, but some or all out of +Europa, Italia Viva, Azione, whatever is left of the Greens, whatever the latest name for the Left alliance is (Liberi e Uguali at the last parliamentary election), and technically also a galaxy of tiny parties mostly working as satellites to PD. Movimento 5 Stelle is the clearest example of a party outside of the two coalitions recently, though it may now be considered (maybe??) in the centre-left because it has governed with PD in the Conte II cabinet and it has allied with it in some regional elections recently. All other parties outside the coalitions tend to be tiny and irrelevant.

Hope this helps!


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: JoeInator on February 04, 2021, 09:04:28 PM
I'm sorry if this has already been asked, but I'm totally lost on how all this government formation stuff works. Could someone please explain to me how these multi-party coalitions form and collapse and how someone who isn't a member/leader of one of the parties in government (someone like Conte or Draghi) gets to become Prime Minister? Also, I've heard the terms "center-left coalition" and "center-right coalition" being thrown around. Which parties would fall into each category and are there any that don't fall into either?

1. The President of the Republic, who is the head of state, appoints someone to lead the government. That someone consults with various parliamentary forces to see if they are able to garner enough support for a new government. If they believe they have, they present their list of ministers to the President of the Republic, who normally will accept it, and proceed to make the new government take the oath of office, which marks its official beginning. After that the new government needs to receive the confidence of both houses of Parliament within a fixed time (20 days if I recall correctly?). If they somehow lose either motion of confidence, they must resign and the process can start anew.

2. Multi-party coalitions form because basically never a single party has a majority in Parliament.

3. The government may also fall if a motion of no confidence is called on it by the Parliament and it passes, which forces it to resign. Or if the President of the Council of Ministers (i.e. the head of government) resigns by personal choice for whatever reason.

4. The President of the Republic has the right to appoint whomever they wish as head of government. Usually it is a member of Parliament, of course, but times like these where it is not clear which kind of 'natural' governing majority may exist in Parliament are more prone to see the appointment of external figures.

5. The centre-right coalition is currently Forza Italia, Lega, Fratelli d'Italia, and technically also a galaxy of tiny parties mostly working as satellites to FI. The centre-left coalition is Partito Democratico, and then it's not completely clear because left-leaning parties tend to be much more willy-nilly about alliances, but some or all out of +Europa, Italia Viva, Azione, whatever is left of the Greens, whatever the latest name for the Left alliance is (Liberi e Uguali at the last parliamentary election), and technically also a galaxy of tiny parties mostly working as satellites to PD. Movimento 5 Stelle is the clearest example of a party outside of the two coalitions recently, though it may now be considered (maybe??) in the centre-left because it has governed with PD in the Conte II cabinet and it has allied with it in some regional elections recently. All other parties outside the coalitions tend to be tiny and irrelevant.

Hope this helps!

This cleared a lot of what I was confused about up! Thank you so much!


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 04, 2021, 09:30:48 PM
Vote for Draghi for PD&M5SS will be a huge error, to the next election Salvini and Meloni will take 60% without FI; a this point try to do a Conte ter government w/o IV go to Senate if not get the confidence go to elections

Having elections right now would genuinely be really bad for Italy. For economic reasons, and also because the electoral law is absolute trash and needs to be made more proportional.

Get the EU money, vaccinate people, start getting the economy out of the ditch, and enact a proportional system. If we get to January 2022, give us the added bonus of another left-leaning President. Then we can go to vote.
Have elections in June then


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: brucejoel99 on February 04, 2021, 10:30:50 PM
Vote for Draghi for PD&M5SS will be a huge error, to the next election Salvini and Meloni will take 60% without FI; a this point try to do a Conte ter government w/o IV go to Senate if not get the confidence go to elections

Having elections right now would genuinely be really bad for Italy. For economic reasons, and also because the electoral law is absolute trash and needs to be made more proportional.

Get the EU money, vaccinate people, start getting the economy out of the ditch, and enact a proportional system. If we get to January 2022, give us the added bonus of another left-leaning President. Then we can go to vote.

Have elections in June then

A Draghi government would presumably seek to do all of those things over the course of ~a year (as opposed to <4 months) so that they can actually be implemented in a competent manner.

Not to mention, in the event of a hypothetical June election being held & resulting in a hung parliament, Mattarella wouldn't be constitutionally able to call a 2nd election were one needed to resolve the deadlock, as Parliament can't be dissolved within the last 6 months of a presidential term.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: FrancoAgo on February 05, 2021, 07:54:18 AM
Hung parliament, nah, right coalition win


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 05, 2021, 11:38:25 AM
This government crisis is sponsored by: George R. R. Martin.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Dance_with_Dragons

For whomever doesn't get it, draghi means dragons in Italian

More seriously, this is how the dance of the parties looks right now:

- LeU won't participate if Lega is included
- M5S is having some internal conflicts and it isn't clear what exactly they are proposing (although they'll likely get in)
- PD has expressed confidence
- IV is literally idolizing Draghi
- FI looks like they'll get in
- Lega is wishy-washy and Salvini has said he would like a government including everyone
- FdI won't participate in any case


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: brucejoel99 on February 05, 2021, 12:10:16 PM
Hung parliament, nah, right coalition win

Didn't say it would be a hung parliament, but that it could be a hung parliament (& it very well could, because who knows what could happen over the course of a campaign?), & it's that fact which renders an election as late as June pretty irresponsible since a follow-up election could very well be necessary yet not holdable 'til ~Apr. 2022.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on February 05, 2021, 03:14:35 PM
My memory is fuzzy: before last election a small crew of old school (i.e. crooked) politicians like Bersani, D'Alema (and maybe Letta?) split away from PD, i recall. Where did they end up going?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 05, 2021, 03:41:34 PM
My memory is fuzzy: before last election a small crew of old school (i.e. crooked) politicians like Bersani, D'Alema (and maybe Letta?) split away from PD, i recall. Where did they end up going?

Imagine calling Bersani crooked when the context of his split is Renzi.

Enrico Letta left PD in an unrelated way in 2015 and got back in 2019.
Bersani and D'Alema among others left in 2017 and founded a party called Articolo Uno. It was part of the Liberi e Uguali coalition in the last parliamentary election and now Bersani sits in the LeU parliamentary group. The party ran a couple candidates in the PD lists at the European election. Its future status is unclear.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Estrella on February 05, 2021, 05:02:48 PM
Courtesy of r/italy: Lega posters from the 1990s

()

"further from Rome, closer to Europe" ijfknskjsdfsfdn

"partisan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_resistance_movement) conscience" aaaaaaaaaaaaaa


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 05, 2021, 05:15:13 PM
"Le Pen [father] is fascist like the parties of Rome" lmaoooooooooooooo

Also the poster in the upper right quadrant is the nakedest dog-whistle about terroni I have ever seen in my life.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on February 05, 2021, 06:32:51 PM
My memory is fuzzy: before last election a small crew of old school (i.e. crooked) politicians like Bersani, D'Alema (and maybe Letta?) split away from PD, i recall. Where did they end up going?

Imagine calling Bersani crooked when the context of his split is Renzi.

Touche; i probably meant more "fossil generation".


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 05, 2021, 06:36:34 PM
My memory is fuzzy: before last election a small crew of old school (i.e. crooked) politicians like Bersani, D'Alema (and maybe Letta?) split away from PD, i recall. Where did they end up going?

Imagine calling Bersani crooked when the context of his split is Renzi.

Touche; i probably meant more "fossil generation".

Oh well. I think the best word here is rottamati, if you get what I mean.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera on February 05, 2021, 10:05:24 PM
Any news on the government formation?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 06, 2021, 06:00:52 AM
#quellavoltacheDraghi ("that time Draghi...") is the new Thing on Italian Twitter.

Among my favourites:
- That time Draghi got a different result from his electronic calculator, and the calculator corrected itself and apologized
- That time Draghi was contacted by a call center and he convinced the call center operator to change bank
- That time Draghi was 5 years old but actually he was already 8 thanks to the interest rates

Then of course every joke about the fact that euro bills printed between 2011 and 2019 have a good Draghi signature on them.

And my favourite of all:
- That time Draghi defeated Saint George lmaooooo


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 06, 2021, 07:46:33 AM
"Le Pen [father] is fascist like the parties of Rome" lmaoooooooooooooo

Also the poster in the upper right quadrant is the nakedest dog-whistle about terroni I have ever seen in my life.

Given that, I wonder what would the Lega founders think about being now an anti-EU party allied with Le Pen [daughter] :P

In fact, how is Bossi seen nowadays by the Lega and their supporters?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 06, 2021, 08:03:11 AM
"Le Pen [father] is fascist like the parties of Rome" lmaoooooooooooooo

Also the poster in the upper right quadrant is the nakedest dog-whistle about terroni I have ever seen in my life.

Given that, I wonder what would the Lega founders think about being now an anti-EU party allied with Le Pen [daughter] :P

In fact, how is Bossi seen nowadays by the Lega and their supporters?

It is not very clear because Bossi is irrelevant now and no one talks about him much, but generally speaking the more "old guard" an official or a voter is and the more likely they are to view Bossi positively.
There exists an internal faction of Lega that dislikes Salvini and in general the new Southern-inclusive #populist nationalism, and preferred Bossi, but they are very much on the sidelines.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 06, 2021, 09:17:13 AM
"Le Pen [father] is fascist like the parties of Rome" lmaoooooooooooooo

Also the poster in the upper right quadrant is the nakedest dog-whistle about terroni I have ever seen in my life.

Given that, I wonder what would the Lega founders think about being now an anti-EU party allied with Le Pen [daughter] :P

In fact, how is Bossi seen nowadays by the Lega and their supporters?

It is not very clear because Bossi is irrelevant now and no one talks about him much, but generally speaking the more "old guard" an official or a voter is and the more likely they are to view Bossi positively.
There exists an internal faction of Lega that dislikes Salvini and in general the new Southern-inclusive #populist nationalism, and preferred Bossi, but they are very much on the sidelines.
Didn’t salvini said he was willing to support the government if they possible a spring election?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 06, 2021, 09:25:45 AM
"Le Pen [father] is fascist like the parties of Rome" lmaoooooooooooooo

Also the poster in the upper right quadrant is the nakedest dog-whistle about terroni I have ever seen in my life.

Given that, I wonder what would the Lega founders think about being now an anti-EU party allied with Le Pen [daughter] :P

In fact, how is Bossi seen nowadays by the Lega and their supporters?

It is not very clear because Bossi is irrelevant now and no one talks about him much, but generally speaking the more "old guard" an official or a voter is and the more likely they are to view Bossi positively.
There exists an internal faction of Lega that dislikes Salvini and in general the new Southern-inclusive #populist nationalism, and preferred Bossi, but they are very much on the sidelines.

Didn’t salvini said he was willing to support the government if they possible a spring election?

Salvini has just said he is open to support the government and has specifically said "we didn't put any conditions" on Draghi, but I don't see in which way this relates to Bossi whatsoever.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 06, 2021, 08:59:33 PM
#quellavoltacheDraghi ("that time Draghi...") is the new Thing on Italian Twitter.

Among my favourites:
- That time Draghi got a different result from his electronic calculator, and the calculator corrected itself and apologized
- That time Draghi was contacted by a call center and he convinced the call center operator to change bank
- That time Draghi was 5 years old but actually he was already 8 thanks to the interest rates

Then of course every joke about the fact that euro bills printed between 2011 and 2019 have a good Draghi signature on them.

And my favourite of all:
- That time Draghi defeated Saint George lmaooooo

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

AMAZING :D


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 07, 2021, 04:05:26 AM
#quellavoltacheDraghi ("that time Draghi...") is the new Thing on Italian Twitter.

Among my favourites:
- That time Draghi got a different result from his electronic calculator, and the calculator corrected itself and apologized
- That time Draghi was contacted by a call center and he convinced the call center operator to change bank
- That time Draghi was 5 years old but actually he was already 8 thanks to the interest rates

Then of course every joke about the fact that euro bills printed between 2011 and 2019 have a good Draghi signature on them.

And my favourite of all:
- That time Draghi defeated Saint George lmaooooo

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

AMAZING :D

PLEASE
PLEASE
I have just realized how to upgrade the best one, I can't believe it:

Government formation without FdI? That time Draghi defeated Saint Giorgia. :D


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 07, 2021, 02:26:13 PM
Could somebody please give a overview of how the electoral law works at the moment?

What exactly does it mean that Lega and FI are in coalition?  Do you vote for the CDX or for individual parties within the coalition?  How do coalitions work in single member seats?

I think I recall that Sardinian Action ran with Lega at the last election.  However they aren't part of the CDX per se?  How does that work?

Likewise Raffaele Fitto had his own party (Direction which had ties to the Tories) which was inside NcI which in turn was part of the CDX.  What was going on there?

Sorry - a lot of questions about the complex law!

Using the current electoral law:

1. You vote for a single list, and the vote is also transferred to the single-member constituency candidate put up by that list. Parties can form coalitions, which means that they all stand behind the same candidate in each constituency (though that candidate is officially affiliated to one of the lists that support him - or is an independent).

2. The Partito Sardo d'Azione (party) didn't run as an autonomous list in 2018, but ran some candidates inside the Lega lists. Lega in turn was one of the four lists inside the CDX coalition.

3. Likewise Fitto's party ran candidates inside the Noi con l'Italia lists. And NcI was one of the four lists inside the CDX coalition too.
have the centerists party considering forming a liberal bloc?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 07, 2021, 02:41:32 PM
Could somebody please give a overview of how the electoral law works at the moment?

What exactly does it mean that Lega and FI are in coalition?  Do you vote for the CDX or for individual parties within the coalition?  How do coalitions work in single member seats?

I think I recall that Sardinian Action ran with Lega at the last election.  However they aren't part of the CDX per se?  How does that work?

Likewise Raffaele Fitto had his own party (Direction which had ties to the Tories) which was inside NcI which in turn was part of the CDX.  What was going on there?

Sorry - a lot of questions about the complex law!

Using the current electoral law:

1. You vote for a single list, and the vote is also transferred to the single-member constituency candidate put up by that list. Parties can form coalitions, which means that they all stand behind the same candidate in each constituency (though that candidate is officially affiliated to one of the lists that support him - or is an independent).

2. The Partito Sardo d'Azione (party) didn't run as an autonomous list in 2018, but ran some candidates inside the Lega lists. Lega in turn was one of the four lists inside the CDX coalition.

3. Likewise Fitto's party ran candidates inside the Noi con l'Italia lists. And NcI was one of the four lists inside the CDX coalition too.

have the centerists party considering forming a liberal bloc?

Unsure what parties you are referring to, but right now I don't think there is any centrist/liberal coalition on the horizon. Certainly not within the current parties.
Also, I think the experience of Monti in 2013 doesn't bode well for this sort of thing.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 07, 2021, 02:53:02 PM
#quellavoltacheDraghi ("that time Draghi...") is the new Thing on Italian Twitter.

Among my favourites:
- That time Draghi got a different result from his electronic calculator, and the calculator corrected itself and apologized
- That time Draghi was contacted by a call center and he convinced the call center operator to change bank
- That time Draghi was 5 years old but actually he was already 8 thanks to the interest rates

Then of course every joke about the fact that euro bills printed between 2011 and 2019 have a good Draghi signature on them.

And my favourite of all:
- That time Draghi defeated Saint George lmaooooo

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

AMAZING :D

PLEASE
PLEASE
I have just realized how to upgrade the best one, I can't believe it:

Government formation without FdI? That time Draghi defeated Saint Giorgia. :D

8) 8) 8)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: bore on February 07, 2021, 05:35:05 PM
Courtesy of r/italy: Lega posters from the 1990s

()

"further from Rome, closer to Europe" ijfknskjsdfsfdn

"partisan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_resistance_movement) conscience" aaaaaaaaaaaaaa


I love how the bottom right one has the exact same cadence as "Works on contingency? No, money down!"


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 07, 2021, 08:40:03 PM
Could somebody please give a overview of how the electoral law works at the moment?

What exactly does it mean that Lega and FI are in coalition?  Do you vote for the CDX or for individual parties within the coalition?  How do coalitions work in single member seats?

I think I recall that Sardinian Action ran with Lega at the last election.  However they aren't part of the CDX per se?  How does that work?

Likewise Raffaele Fitto had his own party (Direction which had ties to the Tories) which was inside NcI which in turn was part of the CDX.  What was going on there?

Sorry - a lot of questions about the complex law!

Using the current electoral law:

1. You vote for a single list, and the vote is also transferred to the single-member constituency candidate put up by that list. Parties can form coalitions, which means that they all stand behind the same candidate in each constituency (though that candidate is officially affiliated to one of the lists that support him - or is an independent).

2. The Partito Sardo d'Azione (party) didn't run as an autonomous list in 2018, but ran some candidates inside the Lega lists. Lega in turn was one of the four lists inside the CDX coalition.

3. Likewise Fitto's party ran candidates inside the Noi con l'Italia lists. And NcI was one of the four lists inside the CDX coalition too.

have the centerists party considering forming a liberal bloc?

Unsure what parties you are referring to, but right now I don't think there is any centrist/liberal coalition on the horizon. Certainly not within the current parties.
Also, I think the experience of Monti in 2013 doesn't bode well for this sort of thing.
Iv e+ azonia


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on February 08, 2021, 07:01:51 AM
Just thinking this morning what I'd do if I was an Italian leftist. Probably kill myself rather than face the kafkaesque trap they're in of a choice between permanent deflationary politics tied to dead hand Bundesbankers or an incredibly painful economic transition out of the Eurozone that would probably require alliance with literal fascists.

I suppose the current strategy of praying that a pro-fiscal expansion coalition manages to take over Europe has some merit given the other options, but Christ...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Diouf on February 08, 2021, 12:51:48 PM
M5S members will have an online vote on whether the party should support Draghi. It will take place from 10 January 13.00 to 11 January 13.00.
ANSA writes that most of the party heavyweights have come out in favour of supporting Draghi.

https://www.ansa.it/english/news/2021/02/08/m5s-to-vote-on-draghi-on-feb-10-11_5f28e69e-c087-42ad-bccb-0de48c67ade2.html


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 09, 2021, 04:53:39 AM
Just thinking this morning what I'd do if I was an Italian leftist. Probably kill myself rather than face the kafkaesque trap they're in of a choice between permanent deflationary politics tied to dead hand Bundesbankers or an incredibly painful economic transition out of the Eurozone that would probably require alliance with literal fascists.

I suppose the current strategy of praying that a pro-fiscal expansion coalition manages to take over Europe has some merit given the other options, but Christ...

Well, hello, I'm and Italian leftist, and while I'm pretty doomer about things I wouldn't necessarily be that doomer. I don't think the barriers for leftist action within the EU are necessarily any worse than those for leftist action in the US. The EU has genuinely changed pretty significantly over the past few years in its attitude to economic policy (Mario Draghi being a big reason why). Of course it's not enough, but it shows there is a way forward there.

And while even as late as 2 years ago I might have felt differently, right now I think it's clear that the threat of fascism is more advanced in the US than it is in Italy. There are a few simple things that could be done that could defuse that threat significantly (mainly, making the electoral system proportional and electing a liberal President), and overall the strength of our institutions as well as the natural entropy of Italian politics makes consolidating power very difficult.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 10, 2021, 02:47:38 PM
So as of today apparently Grillo suddenly suspended the M5S online vote, but Draghi has what one article called "virtually unconditional" support from PD, Lega, FI, and IV, which of course is itself already a fairly comfortable majority in both houses. What does everyone think the Five Stars will end up doing?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 10, 2021, 02:55:18 PM
So as of today apparently Grillo suddenly suspended the M5S online vote, but Draghi has what one article called "virtually unconditional" support from PD, Lega, FI, and IV, which of course is itself already a fairly comfortable majority in both houses. What does everyone think the Five Stars will end up doing?

As far as I was able to reckon the vote has just been slightly postponed. The Five Star Movement will end up doing whatever its powers that be want it to do, which most likely is joining the government coalition.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: TheSaint250 on February 10, 2021, 06:26:36 PM
So as of today apparently Grillo suddenly suspended the M5S online vote, but Draghi has what one article called "virtually unconditional" support from PD, Lega, FI, and IV, which of course is itself already a fairly comfortable majority in both houses. What does everyone think the Five Stars will end up doing?

Would Lega provide actual voting support in getting the government in place or just abstain from voting if the public support continues?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 10, 2021, 06:33:32 PM
So as of today apparently Grillo suddenly suspended the M5S online vote, but Draghi has what one article called "virtually unconditional" support from PD, Lega, FI, and IV, which of course is itself already a fairly comfortable majority in both houses. What does everyone think the Five Stars will end up doing?

Would Lega provide actual voting support in getting the government in place or just abstain from voting if the public support continues?

It's looking increasingly like they'll not only actively support it, but have their own ministers in it. I have to say I didn't see that coming, but there we are. There's no telling how long that will last, of course.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: TheSaint250 on February 10, 2021, 06:35:22 PM
So as of today apparently Grillo suddenly suspended the M5S online vote, but Draghi has what one article called "virtually unconditional" support from PD, Lega, FI, and IV, which of course is itself already a fairly comfortable majority in both houses. What does everyone think the Five Stars will end up doing?

Would Lega provide actual voting support in getting the government in place or just abstain from voting if the public support continues?

It's looking increasingly like they'll not only actively support it, but have their own ministers in it. I have to say I didn't see that coming, but there we are. There's no telling how long that will last, of course.

Wow, that's pretty surprising. Haven't been following it really closely, so why is Lega looking to support Draghi?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 10, 2021, 06:40:43 PM
So as of today apparently Grillo suddenly suspended the M5S online vote, but Draghi has what one article called "virtually unconditional" support from PD, Lega, FI, and IV, which of course is itself already a fairly comfortable majority in both houses. What does everyone think the Five Stars will end up doing?

Would Lega provide actual voting support in getting the government in place or just abstain from voting if the public support continues?

It's looking increasingly like they'll not only actively support it, but have their own ministers in it. I have to say I didn't see that coming, but there we are. There's no telling how long that will last, of course.

Wow, that's pretty surprising. Haven't been following it really closely, so why is Lega looking to support Draghi?

Gotta be part of the clique that's going to spend those sweet, sweet EU bucks. :P

In all seriousness, I'm not entirely sure what Salvini is thinking here. I guess he's seen that being in opposition for the past year or so didn't work out for him like he'd hoped, so maybe he's trying to recapture the magic of the yellow-green government (although the practical situation will be very different). There is also still a pro-business (and thus pro-EU) wing within the party, so perhaps he's afraid of alienating it too much.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 10, 2021, 06:51:47 PM
So as of today apparently Grillo suddenly suspended the M5S online vote, but Draghi has what one article called "virtually unconditional" support from PD, Lega, FI, and IV, which of course is itself already a fairly comfortable majority in both houses. What does everyone think the Five Stars will end up doing?

Would Lega provide actual voting support in getting the government in place or just abstain from voting if the public support continues?

It's looking increasingly like they'll not only actively support it, but have their own ministers in it. I have to say I didn't see that coming, but there we are. There's no telling how long that will last, of course.

Wow, that's pretty surprising. Haven't been following it really closely, so why is Lega looking to support Draghi?

Gotta be part of the clique that's going to spend those sweet, sweet EU bucks. :P

In all seriousness, I'm not entirely sure what Salvini is thinking here. I guess he's seen that being in opposition for the past year or so didn't work out for him like he'd hoped, so maybe he's trying to recapture the magic of the yellow-green government (although the practical situation will be very different). There is also still a pro-business (and thus pro-EU) wing within the party, so perhaps he's afraid of alienating it too much.

Or maybe he wants to ensure the technocratic government gets set up so he can attack it as an unresponsive tool of insiders...despite him backing it of course. There's also the thought that he wants to delay elections to a period when PD is out of govt, cause Lega had a bigger lead and PD was doing worse when he was the junior partner - though that is ignorant of a bunch of other developments since then. Or he just doesn't want a vote now during Corona.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 10, 2021, 06:56:50 PM
So as of today apparently Grillo suddenly suspended the M5S online vote, but Draghi has what one article called "virtually unconditional" support from PD, Lega, FI, and IV, which of course is itself already a fairly comfortable majority in both houses. What does everyone think the Five Stars will end up doing?

Would Lega provide actual voting support in getting the government in place or just abstain from voting if the public support continues?

It's looking increasingly like they'll not only actively support it, but have their own ministers in it. I have to say I didn't see that coming, but there we are. There's no telling how long that will last, of course.

Wow, that's pretty surprising. Haven't been following it really closely, so why is Lega looking to support Draghi?

Because they want the power.

Also, as Antonio said, probably Salvini sees this as an opportunity to assecondate business concerns.

Personally I think this will work out for Lega's prospects as well as its recent period in opposition, that is to say not very.

Or maybe he wants to ensure the technocratic government gets set up so he can attack it as an unresponsive tool of insiders...despite him backing it of course. There's also the thought that he wants to delay elections to a period when PD is out of govt, cause Lega had a bigger lead and PD was doing worse when he was the junior partner - though that is ignorant of a bunch of other developments since then. Or he just doesn't want a vote now during Corona.

No. If that were his objective he wouldn't be applying for a hecking Ministry in the very government.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on February 10, 2021, 07:54:25 PM
Just thinking this morning what I'd do if I was an Italian leftist. Probably kill myself rather than face the kafkaesque trap they're in of a choice between permanent deflationary politics tied to dead hand Bundesbankers or an incredibly painful economic transition out of the Eurozone that would probably require alliance with literal fascists.

I suppose the current strategy of praying that a pro-fiscal expansion coalition manages to take over Europe has some merit given the other options, but Christ...

Well, hello, I'm and Italian leftist, and while I'm pretty doomer about things I wouldn't necessarily be that doomer. I don't think the barriers for leftist action within the EU are necessarily any worse than those for leftist action in the US. The EU has genuinely changed pretty significantly over the past few years in its attitude to economic policy (Mario Draghi being a big reason why). Of course it's not enough, but it shows there is a way forward there.

ECB turning on the spigots with quantitative easing just about saved the Eurozone from another sovereign debt crisis, you're right. And the €750 billion coronabonds are welcome, if largely for the principle established for future packages. But consider this: the US did a $2.2 trillion stimulus in March last year, then an additional $900 billion in the lame duck omnibus, and is now about to pass another $1.9 trillion stimulus package soon. Where do the economic goals of the left (full employment giving greater bargaining power and more robust wage growth for labour over capital)  look brighter given that gulf in government action?



The real worry is that the Eurozone continues to gives Italy and similar economies just enough to not explode in a debt crisis but not enough to help break it out of a death spiral of poor economic performance and emigration. Is there any prospect of northern economies agreeing to do what needs to be done on that score? Certainly not absent a real crisis that threatens the Eurozone itself like 2011, and by then it might be too late.

I agree though that the Republican Party is becoming overtly anti-democratic in a terrifying way not mirrored in Europe.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 10, 2021, 09:20:32 PM
so Iv e+ azonia arent going to make anything??? would be a way for renzi to survived. and could this techocratic pm make a party of his own last the last one did


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 11, 2021, 05:01:41 AM
so Iv e+ azonia arent going to make anything??? would be a way for renzi to survived. and could this techocratic pm make a party of his own last the last one did

Probably not to both questions.

Draghi may well be elected President of the Republic in 2022 instead (which would be much much better than founding a liberal party that becomes irrelevant after a couple years like Dini and Monti did).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Coldstream on February 11, 2021, 06:48:00 AM
Surely Salvini is handing Meloni a huge, unnecessary, win by allowing her to be only opposition? Unless he thinks he’ll be able to wield the same power he did in Conte I.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 11, 2021, 11:34:40 AM
Surely Salvini is handing Meloni a huge, unnecessary, win by allowing her to be only opposition? Unless he thinks he’ll be able to wield the same power he did in Conte I.

Or unless he thinks that a Meloni government would be better than a Salvini government by virtue of him having fewer official responsibilities to take.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 11, 2021, 01:28:31 PM
M5S online voters back Draghi 59-41.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Coldstream on February 11, 2021, 01:35:17 PM
Surely Salvini is handing Meloni a huge, unnecessary, win by allowing her to be only opposition? Unless he thinks he’ll be able to wield the same power he did in Conte I.

Or unless he thinks that a Meloni government would be better than a Salvini government by virtue of him having fewer official responsibilities to take.

Salvini out here playing 6D chess and I’m playing dominoes.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 11, 2021, 01:37:19 PM
Also, to be clear, even if Salvini starts throwing Lega's weight around within a Draghi Cabinet, it's still enormously preferable on both institutional and policy grounds to a new election that the centrodestra would almost certainly storm home in, right?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Diouf on February 11, 2021, 02:55:55 PM

Di Battista is leaving the party. We will see how big the split will be


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 11, 2021, 03:30:03 PM
Also, to be clear, even if Salvini starts throwing Lega's weight around within a Draghi Cabinet, it's still enormously preferable on both institutional and policy grounds to a new election that the centrodestra would almost certainly storm home in, right?

Well, I think the answer is self-obvious. There is approximately zero chance a Draghi government becomes a trazione leghista, realistically.


Di Battista is leaving the party. We will see how big the split will be

Probably unsubstantial, unless he founds a new party himself. And even then, I am skeptical.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 11, 2021, 06:31:03 PM
Lmao so Italy now has the peak meme government of Lega-M5S-PD? :P


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Estrella on February 11, 2021, 07:51:34 PM
Lmao so Italy now has the peak meme government of Lega-M5S-PD? :P

Salvini and Grillists, led by literally former president of ECB. Try going back in time to, I don't know, the peak of Renzimania, tell this to people and watch their heads explode.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 11, 2021, 08:54:31 PM
Lmao so Italy now has the peak meme government of Lega-M5S-PD? :P

"One is a racist would-be whoremonger with a Dorito-trap 'beard' who thinks he is literally more Catholic than the Pope. One is a bald Roman Jew who is so averse to taking the top job himself that he doesn't even have a seat in Parliament. Together, they fight COVID!"


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Logical on February 12, 2021, 02:05:22 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/09/world/europe/italy-renzi-interview.html
The narcissism in this lmao


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 12, 2021, 02:13:19 AM
Yeah, these past few weeks have provided fresh new fuel for the "Only in Italy" memes. :D

What's going to happen within M5S in the coming months will be interesting. Lots of simmering tensions coming to a head (Di Battista is the visible face of it, but lurking in the background is the question of the Movement's relationship with the Casaleggio Associati corporation - the Casaleggio scion doesn't seem to be happy with where the Movement has been going lately). Maybe they'll manage to sweep it under the rug again, but we'll see.

The coolest feature of this new government is that it will have such an ample majority that no single party (not even M5S with its massive parliamentary groups) can bring it down on its own, like Salvini did with Conte I and Renzi did with Conte II. This mean no brinkmanship this time: if one coalition partner isn't happy with what Draghi is doing, he can shut them up and dare them to leave and risk political isolation. This puts Draghi in a stronger position than Conte ever was, of course, but it will also make parliamentary dynamics potentially more powerful. It will be interesting, for example, to see if we find differing majorities on specific issues.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Estrella on February 12, 2021, 03:42:57 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/09/world/europe/italy-renzi-interview.html
The narcissism in this lmao

Confirms that the best description of Renzi I could come up with is "an energetic moron". This served him well when he was - as a politician who was a complete opposite of his in every way once put it - not exactly living in a world of giants. But there's only so much you can accomplish with that and when he needed actual strategic thinking, well...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 12, 2021, 04:47:55 AM
Lmao so Italy now has the peak meme government of Lega-M5S-PD? :P

"One is a racist would-be whoremonger with a Dorito-trap 'beard' who thinks he is literally more Catholic than the Pope. One is a bald Roman Jew who is so averse to taking the top job himself that he doesn't even have a seat in Parliament. Together, they fight COVID!"

Wait what? I learned today that the Zingaretti's have Jewish ancestry.

One, a xenophobic would-be whoremonger who thinks attracting the critiques of the Pope, Avvenire and Famiglia Cristiana for his performative Catholicism is fine as long as Cardinal Ruini winks at him
One, a bald man who talks like Donald Duck and is so averse to the spotlight that his actor brother is literally ten times more famous even though he is the governor of the second largest Region, which includes Rome
One, a bombastic Ligurian comedian who had stopped being involved in the day-to-day of the party he's founded but has now come back just to renege the times when he yelled "F**k the bankers"
One, a shady real estate developer and media mogul who had political power for far too long, made his time in prison, and is now back to give his blessings from Bruxelles
One, a cunning Florentine yuppie who took a party, brought it to new heights, crashed it, then left it, and now thinks he can control Italian politics through an organization polling at 3%

And the master: a central banker with an ineffable charm that's either an unresponsive tool of the elites or the main reason why Italy hasn't defaulted to second-world country status depending on who you ask

Together, they fight with each other COVID!


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 12, 2021, 05:38:02 AM
Lmao so Italy now has the peak meme government of Lega-M5S-PD? :P

Salvini and Grillists, led by literally former president of ECB. Try going back in time to, I don't know, the peak of Renzimania, tell this to people and watch their heads explode.

Try going back to the peak of Renzimania and tell people that the last government was between PD (which has been left by Renzi and is now barely polling 20% headed by the brother of Il commissario Montalbano) and M5S (except Grillo has semi-retired from politics, is now mostly on Facebook videos where he sounds like he's on LSD, and the new leader is that very young Neapolitan guy in the new "direttorio" - no, not Fico; the one that's even younger), led by literally an absolutely random lawyer they can't ever have heard about unless they work for the administrative judiciary. Ah and of course Renzi's new party, which punches above its weight but is surprisingly tiny.
In addition, FdI has soared, Umbria is governed by the centre-right and it's not even close, and Lega literally got a higher percentage in Sardinia than in the city of Milan at the last European election.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Clarko95 📚💰📈 on February 12, 2021, 07:11:56 AM
Welcome to The EstablishmentTM, Five Stars! We told you it was more fun on this side; we have biscotti al cioccolato. Glad to have you!


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 12, 2021, 07:29:26 AM
Welcome to The EstablishmentTM, Five Stars! We told you it was more fun on this side; we have biscotti al cioccolato. Glad to have you!

Di Battista's head right now:

SI SONO VENDUTI ALLA CASTA AAAAAAAAA


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 12, 2021, 10:56:29 AM
I mean if the official heir to both the DCs and the PCI can be literally the same party (as is the case!) then anything is possible. And so it goes.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Andrea on February 12, 2021, 02:09:26 PM
The government announced. To be sworn in tomorrow at lunch time


without portfolio

Relationship with Parliament: Federico d’Inca  (5 Stars) * incumbent

Technological Innovation: Vittorio Colao (Ind)

Public administration: Renato Brunetta (Forza Italia)

Regional affairs: Maria Stella Gelmni  (Forza Italia)

South: Mara Carfagna  (Forza Italia)

Youth policies: Fabiana Dadone (5 Stars) *reshuffled from public administration ministry

Equal opportunities: Elena Bonetti (Italia Viva) * incumbent

Disabilities: Erika Stefani  (Lega)

with portfolio

Tourism: Massimo Graravaglia (Lega)

Foreign Affairs: Luigi Di Maio (5 Stars)  * incumbent

Home affairs: Luciana Lamorgese (Ind) * incumbent

Justice: Marta Cartabia  (Ind, former president of the costituional court)

Defence: Lorenzo Guerini (PD) *incumbent

Economy: Daniele Franco (Ind, director general of National Bank)

Economic Development: Giancarlo Giorgetti (Lega)

Agricolture: Stefano Patuanelli (5 Stars) * *reshuffled from economic development

Econological transition: Roberto Cingolani (Ind)

Infrastructure: Enrico Giovannini (Ind, former president of National Statistics Institute and former minister under Letta)

Work: Andrea Orlando (PD)

Education: Patrizio Bianchi (Ind)

Research and University: Cristina Messa (Ind)

Culture: Dario Franceschini (PD) * incumbent

Health: Roberto Speranza (Free and Equal) * incumbent


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Andrea on February 12, 2021, 02:16:04 PM
After Brunetta, Gelmini and Carfagna (read one of the other at the beginning), I thought we were back  to 2005


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 12, 2021, 03:08:34 PM
I have decided my next display name is going to be "The legend of Saint Giorgia and the Draghi". In honour of the Flawless Beautiful Queen who refused to join the #establishment #partitocratic #elitist government. And also in honour of the Slay King our Lord, who #saved Italy once and is back to #save it another time.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 12, 2021, 03:33:07 PM
Well, here we go. This is going to be be an interesting next few months for Italy. Tune in for the most recent developments in this great sitcom!

Here's a new title to reflect the new situation. Let's hope it goes better than Super Mario 1.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Mike88 on February 12, 2021, 04:03:11 PM


What a stable genius Renzi is. 8)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: brucejoel99 on February 12, 2021, 08:36:12 PM
"May Draghi finally get Italy's politics & economy in order," I said, knowing full well that this is Italian politics, & so that won't be happening, like, ever.

In any event, though, a flourishing Italy would be incredibly based.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 13, 2021, 06:48:48 AM

Super Mario is already fighting the virus!


()


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 13, 2021, 07:18:28 PM
Apparently Draghi lives in Umbria (Città della Pieve, near Orvieto), even though he's from Rome originally. Ex-red regions stay winning!


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: jaichind on February 13, 2021, 07:20:56 PM
Is this not good news for FdI since now they can cleanup the anti-establishment vote in the next election ?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: windjammer on February 13, 2021, 07:31:35 PM


What a stable genius Renzi is. 8)
Renzi has always been some attention whore imbecile


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 13, 2021, 08:34:26 PM
Is this not good news for FdI since now they can cleanup the anti-establishment vote in the next election ?

FdI will likely make hay out of being the only opposition, yes. Joining this government seems like a strategic blunder on both Matteos' parts.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 14, 2021, 04:35:01 AM
Is this not good news for FdI since now they can cleanup the anti-establishment vote in the next election ?

FdI will likely make hay out of being the only opposition, yes. Joining this government seems like a strategic blunder on both Matteos' parts.

I agree that FdI is likely to make gains out of this, but you would be hard pressed to say that Renzi was going to take many "anti-establishment" votes otherwise.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: jaichind on February 14, 2021, 10:45:28 AM
Is this not good news for FdI since now they can cleanup the anti-establishment vote in the next election ?

FdI will likely make hay out of being the only opposition, yes. Joining this government seems like a strategic blunder on both Matteos' parts.

I agree that FdI is likely to make gains out of this, but you would be hard pressed to say that Renzi was going to take many "anti-establishment" votes otherwise.

I was thinking that Fdl takes votes from Lega and M5S


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Mike88 on February 14, 2021, 10:50:21 AM
Is this not good news for FdI since now they can cleanup the anti-establishment vote in the next election ?

FdI will likely make hay out of being the only opposition, yes. Joining this government seems like a strategic blunder on both Matteos' parts.




Io Sono Giorgia, Sono una donna, sono una madre, sono una cristiana.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 14, 2021, 10:54:19 AM
So how long will this sh*tshow of a goverment  last i say till next spring.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Estrella on February 14, 2021, 11:04:46 AM
Is this not good news for FdI since now they can cleanup the anti-establishment vote in the next election ?

FdI will likely make hay out of being the only opposition, yes. Joining this government seems like a strategic blunder on both Matteos' parts.




Io Sono Giorgia, Sono una donna, sono una madre, sono una cristiana.

()


ahaha that's funny but I'm guessing that was just a one-off, there's no way she... oh. oh. I see. paging brtd. (https://www.facebook.com/giorgiameloni.paginaufficiale/posts/10156584065652645/)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 14, 2021, 11:08:01 AM
Is this not good news for FdI since now they can cleanup the anti-establishment vote in the next election ?

FdI will likely make hay out of being the only opposition, yes. Joining this government seems like a strategic blunder on both Matteos' parts.




Io Sono Giorgia, Sono una donna, sono una madre, sono una cristiana.

()


ahaha that's funny but I'm guessing that was just a one-off, there's no way she... oh. oh. I see. paging brtd. (https://www.facebook.com/giorgiameloni.paginaufficiale/posts/10156584065652645/)
was that her offical account?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Estrella on February 14, 2021, 11:20:00 AM
Is this not good news for FdI since now they can cleanup the anti-establishment vote in the next election ?

FdI will likely make hay out of being the only opposition, yes. Joining this government seems like a strategic blunder on both Matteos' parts.




Io Sono Giorgia, Sono una donna, sono una madre, sono una cristiana.

()


ahaha that's funny but I'm guessing that was just a one-off, there's no way she... oh. oh. I see. paging brtd. (https://www.facebook.com/giorgiameloni.paginaufficiale/posts/10156584065652645/)
was that her offical account?

yep, she seems to unironically like it lmao


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 14, 2021, 12:51:35 PM
WTF I love Meloni now

I guess we just need AfD-kun now and we'd have the full Axis powers back in anime form :P


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 14, 2021, 01:14:14 PM
WTF I love Meloni now

I guess we just need AfD-kun now and we'd have the full Axis powers back in anime form :P

Tired: Flawless Beautiful Queen Giorgia

Wired: Flawless Beautiful Tennō Giorgia-chan


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 15, 2021, 03:22:37 AM
omfg I'm dying

trad anime waifu Giorgia-chan. I don't know how to deal with this.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 15, 2021, 08:47:18 AM
omfg I'm dying

trad anime waifu Giorgia-chan. I don't know how to deal with this.

Why does this sound like an implicit admission of guilt that you're secretly wishing you were Andrea Giambruno now?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 15, 2021, 08:58:52 AM
Also appropriate to bring back this:

> So much a defender of the traditional family that she lives with her partner but they are not married or anything

I was reading about Giorgia Meloni on Wikipedia the other day and this is true of her too. And of course Salvini has been through three domestic partners since divorcing his wife in 2010. Lots of hypocrisy on this one very specific "lifestyle" issue on the Italian hard right.

I mean seriously, it almost seems like all the politicians who are into "Difendere la famiglia tradizionale" hate the actual concept of Christian marriage/family.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 15, 2021, 03:44:57 PM
omfg I'm dying

trad anime waifu Giorgia-chan. I don't know how to deal with this.

Why does this sound like an implicit admission of guilt that you're secretly wishing you were Andrea Giambruno now?

Nah, you got it mixed up. What I am is an avid anime fan. I have nothing but contempt for Meloni. It's the association of this wonderful, adorable anime aesthetic with such a vile character that I can't handle.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 15, 2021, 03:55:58 PM
omfg I'm dying

trad anime waifu Giorgia-chan. I don't know how to deal with this.

Why does this sound like an implicit admission of guilt that you're secretly wishing you were Andrea Giambruno now?

Nah, you got it mixed up. What I am is an avid anime fan. I have nothing but contempt for Meloni. It's the association of this wonderful, adorable anime aesthetic with such a vile character that I can't handle.

Lol. I am not really an anime fan (and I can't bring myself to have contempt for people in general as much as you do) so I can only partially relate.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 15, 2021, 04:00:07 PM
WTF I love Meloni now

I guess we just need AfD-kun now and we'd have the full Axis powers back in anime form :P

Tired: Flawless Beautiful Queen Giorgia

Wired: Flawless Beautiful Tennō Giorgia-chan

Tennō 天皇 is the wrong word to use in this context; it's the (gender-neutral) word specifically for the Japanese emperor. The word for a Western queen is joō 女王.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 15, 2021, 04:06:43 PM
WTF I love Meloni now

I guess we just need AfD-kun now and we'd have the full Axis powers back in anime form :P

Tired: Flawless Beautiful Queen Giorgia

Wired: Flawless Beautiful Tennō Giorgia-chan

Tennō 天皇 is the wrong word to use in this context; it's the (gender-neutral) word specifically for the Japanese emperor. The word for a Western queen is joō 女王.

I purposefully used the word for a Japanese emperor/empress, actually. RL Giorgia may be a Western queen, but anime Giorgia would be the Japanese empress (in my opinion at least).
What I am not sure is right is using the -chan suffix together with it, you may give me elucidations on this.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 15, 2021, 07:52:46 PM
WTF I love Meloni now

I guess we just need AfD-kun now and we'd have the full Axis powers back in anime form :P

Tired: Flawless Beautiful Queen Giorgia

Wired: Flawless Beautiful Tennō Giorgia-chan

Tennō 天皇 is the wrong word to use in this context; it's the (gender-neutral) word specifically for the Japanese emperor. The word for a Western queen is joō 女王.

I purposefully used the word for a Japanese emperor/empress, actually. RL Giorgia may be a Western queen, but anime Giorgia would be the Japanese empress (in my opinion at least).

That makes sense.

Quote
What I am not sure is right is using the -chan suffix together with it, you may give me elucidations on this.

No adult member of royalty would ever take the -chan honorific in a million years in real life, but in anime anything is possible.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Cassius on February 16, 2021, 08:54:42 AM
As there are six parties in this new government can we christen it as the Sexapartito in honour of the Pentapartito?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 16, 2021, 09:32:57 AM
As there are six parties in this new government can we christen it as the Sexapartito in honour of the Pentapartito?

As there is Berlusconi's party in this new government we can christen it as the Sex-a-partito.



Aaaaanyway, the correct term using Italian prefixes would be Esapartito.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Cassius on February 16, 2021, 09:49:49 AM
As there are six parties in this new government can we christen it as the Sexapartito in honour of the Pentapartito?

As there is Berlusconi's party in this new government we can christen it as the Sex-a-partito.



Aaaaanyway, the correct term using Italian prefixes would be Esapartito.

Damn morphology.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 16, 2021, 10:12:52 AM
As there are six parties in this new government can we christen it as the Sexapartito in honour of the Pentapartito?

As there is Berlusconi's party in this new government we can christen it as the Sex-a-partito.



Aaaaanyway, the correct term using Italian prefixes would be Esapartito.

Damn morphology.

Maledetta morfologia, you mean.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 17, 2021, 05:16:17 PM
Journalist and Senator Gianluigi Paragone, who was expelled from M5S a year ago, has decided to go overboard with... I'm not sure how to call his ideology exactly, but he has officially founded a party: Italexit, which is anti-EU, anti-establishment, anti-neoliberal, and 'souverainist'. Actually the party was born months ago, but I have only caught up to it now because lately Paragone is a bit more in the spotlight as one of the few people vocally in opposition to the Draghi government.

I think he is inspiring to Nigel Farage in part, although it is my impression that Farage was much more economically liberal. You could also argue he's going back to the "original values" of M5S that the party has supposedly betrayed, although possibly more radically.

I don't know if his nationalistic socialistic (?) dream has much of a future, nor if it will devolve into being uncomfortably close to that thing which starts with an F, but if it ever gets more traction than having two Senators (there's also ex-M5S Mario Giarrusso), it sounds like a great fit for the mythical "anti-establishment vote".


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 17, 2021, 06:02:19 PM
Journalist and Senator Gianluigi Paragone, who was expelled from M5S a year ago, has decided to go overboard with... I'm not sure how to call his ideology exactly, but he has officially founded a party: Italexit, which is anti-EU, anti-establishment, anti-neoliberal, and 'souverainist'. Actually the party was born months ago, but I have only caught up to it now because lately Paragone is a bit more in the spotlight as one of the few people vocally in opposition to the Draghi government.

I think he is inspiring to Nigel Farage in part, although it is my impression that Farage was much more economically liberal. You could also argue he's going back to the "original values" of M5S that the party has supposedly betrayed, although possibly more radically.

I don't know if his nationalistic socialistic (?) dream has much of a future, nor if it will devolve into being uncomfortably close to that thing which starts with an F, but if it ever gets more traction than having two Senators (there's also ex-M5S Mario Giarrusso), it sounds like a great fit for the mythical "anti-establishment vote".

Paragone used to have a talk show on La7 a few years ago and it was absolute trash. The most bad-faith, uninformed, attention-grabbing drivel that you normally only find on Mediaset channels. I'm glad he's found his calling as a Salvini-lite demagogue, because that's far more suited to his "talents" than journalism.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 17, 2021, 06:12:59 PM
Journalist and Senator Gianluigi Paragone, who was expelled from M5S a year ago, has decided to go overboard with... I'm not sure how to call his ideology exactly, but he has officially founded a party: Italexit, which is anti-EU, anti-establishment, anti-neoliberal, and 'souverainist'. Actually the party was born months ago, but I have only caught up to it now because lately Paragone is a bit more in the spotlight as one of the few people vocally in opposition to the Draghi government.

I think he is inspiring to Nigel Farage in part, although it is my impression that Farage was much more economically liberal. You could also argue he's going back to the "original values" of M5S that the party has supposedly betrayed, although possibly more radically.

I don't know if his nationalistic socialistic (?) dream has much of a future, nor if it will devolve into being uncomfortably close to that thing which starts with an F, but if it ever gets more traction than having two Senators (there's also ex-M5S Mario Giarrusso), it sounds like a great fit for the mythical "anti-establishment vote".

Paragone used to have a talk show on La7 a few years ago and it was absolute trash. The most bad-faith, uninformed, attention-grabbing drivel that you normally only find on Mediaset channels. I'm glad he's found his calling as a Salvini-lite demagogue, because that's far more suited to his "talents" than journalism.

I know that Paragone had a talk show on LA7, but I never watched it much at all. I usually try to steer away from talk shows. Anyway, I don't think calling him a Salvini-lite is totally correct, he seems more "rhetorically leftist" in a sense than Salvini ever was (in recent times).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: parochial boy on February 17, 2021, 06:14:21 PM
Journalist and Senator Gianluigi Paragone, who was expelled from M5S a year ago, has decided to go overboard with... I'm not sure how to call his ideology exactly, but he has officially founded a party: Italexit, which is anti-EU, anti-establishment, anti-neoliberal, and 'souverainist'. Actually the party was born months ago, but I have only caught up to it now because lately Paragone is a bit more in the spotlight as one of the few people vocally in opposition to the Draghi government.


Oh my, Michel Onfray says hello

The last thing you guys need is to start importing pretentious French pseudo-inellectual wankery


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 17, 2021, 06:29:04 PM
Journalist and Senator Gianluigi Paragone, who was expelled from M5S a year ago, has decided to go overboard with... I'm not sure how to call his ideology exactly, but he has officially founded a party: Italexit, which is anti-EU, anti-establishment, anti-neoliberal, and 'souverainist'. Actually the party was born months ago, but I have only caught up to it now because lately Paragone is a bit more in the spotlight as one of the few people vocally in opposition to the Draghi government.


Oh my, Michel Onfray says hello

The last thing you guys need is to start importing pretentious French pseudo-inellectual wankery

Oh, don't worry about that. Nobody would think of mistaking Paragone for an intellectual, pseudo or otherwise.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 17, 2021, 06:32:35 PM
Journalist and Senator Gianluigi Paragone, who was expelled from M5S a year ago, has decided to go overboard with... I'm not sure how to call his ideology exactly, but he has officially founded a party: Italexit, which is anti-EU, anti-establishment, anti-neoliberal, and 'souverainist'. Actually the party was born months ago, but I have only caught up to it now because lately Paragone is a bit more in the spotlight as one of the few people vocally in opposition to the Draghi government.


Oh my, Michel Onfray says hello

The last thing you guys need is to start importing pretentious French pseudo-inellectual wankery

Lmao

I don't think that's a good comparison though. Paragone is pretentious but not at that level - he's not a philosopher for starters - and this Onfray thing of post-anarchism or whatever seems too explicitly to the "left" and too thought out to relate to someone like Paragone.

Partially jinxed by Antonio.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: njwes on February 17, 2021, 08:28:35 PM
When is M5S going to splinter apart? They don't seem to have a raison d'être anymore other than maybe clinging to power for its own sake, but one would assume their voters might not be fond of that


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 18, 2021, 07:20:56 AM
When is M5S going to splinter apart? They don't seem to have a raison d'être anymore other than maybe clinging to power for its own sake, but one would assume their voters might not be fond of that

Not in the foreseeable future, I think.
M5S is a useless party in various ways, but I absolutely think it has its raisons d'être - providing a "non-aligned" option to low-info voters, supporting or at least paying lip service to the South (especially that), scooping up #populist voters who also think Salvini is a fascist, this sort of things.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Estrella on February 18, 2021, 11:25:10 AM

there's literally "uscITA" ffs


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 18, 2021, 11:37:32 AM
When is M5S going to splinter apart? They don't seem to have a raison d'être anymore other than maybe clinging to power for its own sake, but one would assume their voters might not be fond of that

Not in the foreseeable future, I think.
M5S is a useless party in various ways, but I absolutely think it has its raisons d'être - providing a "non-aligned" option to low-info voters, supporting or at least paying lip service to the South (especially that), scooping up #populist voters who also think Salvini is a fascist, this sort of things.

The latter is an incredibly important function on the Italian political scene right now. I don't even want to think about how much support Lega and FdI might be pulling without a non-fash #populist <3 option for people to vote for.

Journalist and Senator Gianluigi Paragone, who was expelled from M5S a year ago, has decided to go overboard with... I'm not sure how to call his ideology exactly, but he has officially founded a party: Italexit, which is anti-EU, anti-establishment, anti-neoliberal, and 'souverainist'. Actually the party was born months ago, but I have only caught up to it now because lately Paragone is a bit more in the spotlight as one of the few people vocally in opposition to the Draghi government.


Oh my, Michel Onfray says hello

The last thing you guys need is to start importing pretentious French pseudo-inellectual wankery

Is this the same Michel Onfray who ten or fifteen years ago tried to present himself as a sort of Continental Richard Dawkins?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 18, 2021, 12:06:48 PM
The latter is an incredibly important function on the Italian political scene right now. I don't even want to think about how much support Lega and FdI might be pulling without a non-fash #populist <3 option for people to vote for.

I mean, ideally I would like to see all the M5S votes migrating to the proper centre-left (specifically, a version of PD that sets its priorities straight) and the party burning in hellfire. Of course, that has zero chance of happening.

Is this the same Michel Onfray who ten or fifteen years ago tried to present himself as a sort of Continental Richard Dawkins?

Yes, Michel Onfray is a sort of New Atheist and apparently bangs relentlessly about Islam(ism).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 18, 2021, 01:48:28 PM
Yesterday the Draghi government received the confidence of the Senate with 262 Yes, 40 No, and 2 abstentions (coming from M5S members).

The flash news is that fifteen M5S Senators voted No, and they will all be expelled from the party. What a dumb and useless party, holy Mary. If you consider that it has never undergone any substantial party breakaway, but instead pretty much only parliamentarians leaving alone or getting expelled, their defection rates are simply insane.

Today there is the confidence vote in the Chamber. I wonder how many defections there will be among the M5S Deputies in light of that news. I also wonder how many of those expelled Senators will join Paragone's party, if any.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 18, 2021, 05:29:01 PM
Today there is the confidence vote in the Chamber. I wonder how many defections there will be among the M5S Deputies in light of that news. I also wonder how many of those expelled Senators will join Paragone's party, if any.

The Draghi government received the confidence of the Chamber with 535 Yes, 56 No, and 5 abstentions.

Sixteen M5S Deputies voted No. I assume that Vito Crimi tomorrow will declare all of them expelled as well.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: njwes on February 18, 2021, 07:02:21 PM
When is M5S going to splinter apart? They don't seem to have a raison d'être anymore other than maybe clinging to power for its own sake, but one would assume their voters might not be fond of that

Not in the foreseeable future, I think.
M5S is a useless party in various ways, but I absolutely think it has its raisons d'être - providing a "non-aligned" option to low-info voters, supporting or at least paying lip service to the South (especially that), scooping up #populist voters who also think Salvini is a fascist, this sort of things.


The latter is an incredibly important function on the Italian political scene right now. I don't even want to think about how much support Lega and FdI might be pulling without a non-fash #populist <3 option for people to vote for.

Journalist and Senator Gianluigi Paragone, who was expelled from M5S a year ago, has decided to go overboard with... I'm not sure how to call his ideology exactly, but he has officially founded a party: Italexit, which is anti-EU, anti-establishment, anti-neoliberal, and 'souverainist'. Actually the party was born months ago, but I have only caught up to it now because lately Paragone is a bit more in the spotlight as one of the few people vocally in opposition to the Draghi government.


Oh my, Michel Onfray says hello

The last thing you guys need is to start importing pretentious French pseudo-inellectual wankery

Is this the same Michel Onfray who ten or fifteen years ago tried to present himself as a sort of Continental Richard Dawkins?

Educate yourself on what fascism actually is, and stop saying "#fash" unless you're on the Red Scare subreddit plz.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 18, 2021, 09:12:20 PM
When is M5S going to splinter apart? They don't seem to have a raison d'être anymore other than maybe clinging to power for its own sake, but one would assume their voters might not be fond of that

Not in the foreseeable future, I think.
M5S is a useless party in various ways, but I absolutely think it has its raisons d'être - providing a "non-aligned" option to low-info voters, supporting or at least paying lip service to the South (especially that), scooping up #populist voters who also think Salvini is a fascist, this sort of things.


The latter is an incredibly important function on the Italian political scene right now. I don't even want to think about how much support Lega and FdI might be pulling without a non-fash #populist <3 option for people to vote for.

Journalist and Senator Gianluigi Paragone, who was expelled from M5S a year ago, has decided to go overboard with... I'm not sure how to call his ideology exactly, but he has officially founded a party: Italexit, which is anti-EU, anti-establishment, anti-neoliberal, and 'souverainist'. Actually the party was born months ago, but I have only caught up to it now because lately Paragone is a bit more in the spotlight as one of the few people vocally in opposition to the Draghi government.


Oh my, Michel Onfray says hello

The last thing you guys need is to start importing pretentious French pseudo-inellectual wankery

Is this the same Michel Onfray who ten or fifteen years ago tried to present himself as a sort of Continental Richard Dawkins?

Educate yourself on what fascism actually is, and stop saying "#fash" unless you're on the Red Scare subreddit plz.


I've given talks on Holocaust theology at the postgraduate level, and do not need to be told this by some random blue avatar with less than 500 posts.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: CumbrianLefty on February 19, 2021, 09:56:21 AM
OK, lets just never hear "Hitler/Nazis were left wing because they had SOCIALIST in their name" ever again from your side in return. Deal?? :p


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 20, 2021, 03:05:45 PM
Vito Crimi has announced that all the Deputies and Senators who abstained on the confidence motion will be expelled too just like those who voted No.

I just can't

And I am not even a supporter of those who voted No, mind you. I am just eight years full of the M5S appreciation of purges.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 20, 2021, 04:11:48 PM
Vito Crimi has announced that all the Deputies and Senators who abstained on the confidence motion will be expelled too just like those who voted No.

I just can't

And I am not even a supporter of those who voted No, mind you. I am just eight years full of the M5S appreciation of purges.

............

Yeah this is suicidal. The M5S groups have already lost, what, over a third of their former members? They won twice as many votes as Lega, but their parliamentary groups are almost identical in size. They're basically just hamstringing themselves.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 21, 2021, 06:13:26 PM
I havent see meloni attack salvini at all centre right doing good cop bad cop with this?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 25, 2021, 10:09:25 AM
I havent see meloni attack salvini at all centre right doing good cop bad cop with this?

Meloni is going to attack the government in general but presumably not Salvini specifically, and that's for the simple reason that she needs Salvini as an electoral ally.

Partially relatedly, Salvini is pushing to delay the local elections and the Calabria regional election to the fall, whereas Meloni is eager to vote in the spring.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 26, 2021, 11:30:42 AM
I havent see meloni attack salvini at all centre right doing good cop bad cop with this?

Meloni is going to attack the government in general but presumably not Salvini specifically, and that's for the simple reason that she needs Salvini as an electoral ally.

Partially relatedly, Salvini is pushing to delay the local elections and the Calabria regional election to the fall, whereas Meloni is eager to vote in the spring.

question who will be the next president and is their likely a snap election next spring???


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 26, 2021, 11:35:28 AM
I havent see meloni attack salvini at all centre right doing good cop bad cop with this?

Meloni is going to attack the government in general but presumably not Salvini specifically, and that's for the simple reason that she needs Salvini as an electoral ally.

Partially relatedly, Salvini is pushing to delay the local elections and the Calabria regional election to the fall, whereas Meloni is eager to vote in the spring.

question who will be the next president and is their likely a snap election next spring???

I have no idea who will be the next President of the Republic but if I had to spitball, I'd say Draghi or secondarily Cartabia. I would think a snap election in spring 2022 is pretty likely, yes.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 01, 2021, 07:03:57 AM
Update #1 (national)

Super-important: it looks like Beppe Grillo has asked Giuseppe Conte to become a leader of the Five Star Movement and to help "refound" it. I am not exactly sure where this is going right now, but maybe we'll have a "Conte party" after all... lmao.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 01, 2021, 07:08:34 AM
Update #2 (regional)

The date of the Calabria regional election is still set on April 11th, but it is hanging by a thread because it looks probable to be postponed again. I don't know what to say.

Forza Italia is proposing Deputy Roberto Occhiuto as centre-right candidate, which is interesting because last year they had pushed for his brother Mario, mayor of Cosenza, who of course was vetoed by Lega leading to the final candidacy of the late Jole Santelli. I don't know how Lega or FdI are reacting to Roberto this time.
PD is proposing regional councillor Nicola Irto, but I feel like the centre-left is in flux. I have no idea what M5S is doing.
In a masterful bit of "carpetbagging but not really" incumbent term-limited Naples mayor Luigi De Magistris, who also is a former prosecutor in Calabria (NB: he was indeed born and raised in Naples) has announced his candidacy. De Magistris notoriously was elected two times with a left-leaning anti-PD coalition. Here he has just received the support of Carlo Tansi, a guy who ran with a civic list in 2020.
In an even more masterful bit of "carpetbagging and YES really" like he has done a countless number of times, art critic turned politician turned pop culture icon Vittorio Sgarbi has announced his candidacy as well. Sgarbi is notoriously right-leaning, but there's no guarantee as to what his electorate might be.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on March 01, 2021, 10:47:39 AM
Update #1 (national)

Super-important: it looks like Beppe Grillo has asked Giuseppe Conte to become a leader of the Five Star Movement and to help "refound" it. I am not exactly sure where this is going right now, but maybe we'll have a "Conte party" after all... lmao.

It seems like Conte still favors close cooperation with PD? In that case this looks like there isn't much danger of support being pulled from the government.

ETA: Yep, Financial Times reports that he has a mandate from Grillo to convert M5S into a more mainstream political force with permanent ties to the center-left.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Estrella on March 01, 2021, 11:00:54 AM
In an even more masterful bit of "carpetbagging and YES really" like he has done a countless number of times, art critic turned politician turned pop culture icon Vittorio Sgarbi has announced his candidacy as well. Sgarbi is notoriously right-leaning, but there's no guarantee as to what his electorate might be.

People who like when someone YELLS VERY LOUDLY ON THE TELLY, perhaps?







Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 01, 2021, 11:12:44 AM
It seems like Conte still favors close cooperation with PD? In that case this looks like there isn't much danger of support being pulled from the government.

ETA: Yep, Financial Times reports that he has a mandate from Grillo to convert M5S into a more mainstream political force with permanent ties to the center-left.

Pulling support from the government is not a problem in any case.

The first thing he should do if the point is to convert M5S in a "mainstream" force would be to sack Grillo (and Crimi, and arguably Di Maio). Then rewrite entirely the party's statute and hopefully change the name too.


In an even more masterful bit of "carpetbagging and YES really" like he has done a countless number of times, art critic turned politician turned pop culture icon Vittorio Sgarbi has announced his candidacy as well. Sgarbi is notoriously right-leaning, but there's no guarantee as to what his electorate might be.

People who like when someone YELLS VERY LOUDLY ON THE TELLY, perhaps?

CAPRA! SEI UNA CAPRA IGNORANTE!


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: njwes on March 01, 2021, 12:20:43 PM
When is M5S going to splinter apart? They don't seem to have a raison d'être anymore other than maybe clinging to power for its own sake, but one would assume their voters might not be fond of that

Not in the foreseeable future, I think.
M5S is a useless party in various ways, but I absolutely think it has its raisons d'être - providing a "non-aligned" option to low-info voters, supporting or at least paying lip service to the South (especially that), scooping up #populist voters who also think Salvini is a fascist, this sort of things.

How about now?  O:)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Renzi Pulls the Plug
Post by: njwes on March 01, 2021, 12:35:10 PM
Apologies if this was addressed way back in the post, but if the next election produces a right-wing majority and FI, Lega, and FdI agree to form a government (which I'm assuming they would) how much could such a government actually get done and accomplish? I understand that they're both* positioned as "right-wing" and populist-y (maybe more accurate for FdI than Lega) and that they've both positioned themselves as somewhat anti-left/anti-globalist/anti-neoliberal--finding the right terminology here is tricky lol--but how much common ground actually exists between them in terms of reforms, laws, regulations, policy etc that they wish to enact (or maybe repeal)?

*Using "both" because I assume that FI wouldn't have a ton of say in a right-wing government's actual policy, but I could be totally wrong.

1. Forza Italia would not have a ton to say but it would have still a bit to say (in part because most likely its support would be decisive for such a government, just like the support of Italia Viva was decisive for Conte II).

2. Actually it is Lega that has the more populist-y posturing (and more downscale electorate), even though Fratelli d'Italia is likely a bit more populist/interventionist on concrete policy.

3. I think they share enough common ground to pass, or try to pass, quite a substantive agenda, but I would guess that a big hurdle may arise when the topic of regionalism comes up, to make an obvious example. There may be some attrition on some soshul ishoos as well, but it's unclear.*

4. I know what you are trying to get at by "anti-neoliberal" but it's never a bad day to remind that using the original definition of the word the Italian right-wing is, well, pretty neoliberal.

*it would be absolutely hilarious if, while in government together, Salvini tried to give some concreteness to his pipe dream of reopening brothels and Meloni destroyed his proposal playing the #feminist card


Sorry for being late on this but thanks so much for this--I clearly had a lot of misconceptions! Very interesting stuff. Following up on a few of these points:

#2: I'm actually shocked that Lega has the more downscale electorate! Does that mean then that FdI's core voters are more firmly middle class, maybe petit bourgeois types? And, who does the downscale electorate in Southern Italy vote for? The PD? Maybe a combination of that and 5Star, and just turning out less?

#3: Well that's sort of what I was getting at, what would that "substantial agenda" actually BE? If not regionalism, and not EU-related, and maybe not much on economics, what exactly? And the same re: social issues--I imagine that it would be difficult for them to even do a tightening up of abortion regulation, for instance.

#4: I hate the term neoliberalism and I'm aware that "anti-neoliberal" is even more of a nightmare lol. I wish I could stop using it when I think about politics but it's often just so useful. That's why I used "anti-left/anti-globalist/anti-neoliberal", just trying to paint a picture. I wish there was a less muddy terminology, but the closest thing I could think of in the Anglo-Saxon tradition for those stances would probably be something like "traditionalist conservatism" which is itself a difficult and contentious term and more importantly doesn't actually seem to describe Lega (maybe it's more fitting for some segments of FdI, I'm not sure).

Last thing: the changing of your avatar deeply startled me 😂 Thanks for all the good work you do here.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 01, 2021, 01:11:52 PM
When is M5S going to splinter apart? They don't seem to have a raison d'être anymore other than maybe clinging to power for its own sake, but one would assume their voters might not be fond of that

Not in the foreseeable future, I think.
M5S is a useless party in various ways, but I absolutely think it has its raisons d'être - providing a "non-aligned" option to low-info voters, supporting or at least paying lip service to the South (especially that), scooping up #populist voters who also think Salvini is a fascist, this sort of things.

How about now?  O:)

It remains to be seen, but there's no reason why it can't keep doing those things (unless Conte transforms it into a woketariat party, but that would be incredibly difficult and stupid).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 01, 2021, 01:51:32 PM
Sorry for being late on this but thanks so much for this--I clearly had a lot of misconceptions! Very interesting stuff. Following up on a few of these points:

#2: I'm actually shocked that Lega has the more downscale electorate! Does that mean then that FdI's core voters are more firmly middle class, maybe petit bourgeois types? And, who does the downscale electorate in Southern Italy vote for? The PD? Maybe a combination of the
and 5Star, and just turning out less?

#3: Well that's sort of what I was getting at, what would that "substantial agenda" actually BE? If not regionalism, and not EU-related, and maybe not much on economics, what exactly? And the same re: social issues--I imagine that it would be difficult for them to even do a tightening up of abortion regulation, for instance.

#4: I hate the term neoliberalism and I'm aware that "anti-neoliberal" is even more of a nightmare lol. I wish I could stop using it when I think about politics but it's often just so useful lol. That's why I used "anti-left/anti-globalist/anti-neoliberal", just trying to paint a picture. I wish there was a less muddy terminology, but the closest thing I could think of in the Anglo-Saxon tradition for those stances would probably be something like "traditionalist conservatism" which is itself a difficult and contentious term and more importantly doesn't actually seem to describe Lega (maybe it's more fitting for some segments of FdI, I'm not sure.

Last thing: the changing of your avatar deeply startled me 😂 Thanks for all the good work you do here.

#2 Yes, the FdI core voters are the ones you mentioned plus some old money Rich Catholic types - which after all is the same kind of people who used to vote MSI.* The electorate in Southern Italy is all downscale to begin with compared to Northern Italy, but for the downscale of the downscale, you are looking at a pretty fragmented situation - rural villages in the South can be completely random sometimes - but yes, generally big on M5S, and low turnout.

#3 Immigration and muh law and order surely, probably an infrastructure plan, criminal justice reform if it does not pass sooner, something about pensions and taxes (hopefully not the flat tax but who knows), probably whatever pro-family economic policies FdI puts forward, and vague protectionist stuff, for instance. Actually I think they are still fairly in sync on the EU too.

#4 "Traditionalist conservatism" has somewhat seeped into Lega as well with Salvini I'd say, but it is more fitting for FdI, yes. Lega to me is mostly liberal conservatism and nationalism mixed up in a #populist fashion. I recognize that in the end labels are not particularly useful though.

*compare this: https://sondaggibidimedia.com/regionali-liguria-2020-la-mappa-interattiva-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-comune-per-comune/
I had already linked to this series of maps. It's the 2020 regional election in Liguria, which I am using because Genoa has a fairly starkly identifiable 'favoured quarter', is in the North, and the election was relatively competitive. If you look at the map by quartieri you can see Lega does worst in the rich east coast, whereas FdI does best in the same area (especially in the near east coast, the richest part of all).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Estrella on March 01, 2021, 07:42:41 PM
In an even more masterful bit of "carpetbagging and YES really" like he has done a countless number of times, art critic turned politician turned pop culture icon Vittorio Sgarbi has announced his candidacy as well. Sgarbi is notoriously right-leaning, but there's no guarantee as to what his electorate might be.

People who like when someone YELLS VERY LOUDLY ON THE TELLY, perhaps?

CAPRA! SEI UNA CAPRA IGNORANTE!

And you only talk about the dead because you need the dead so you can pretend to be alive is prime song lyric material.

The other one is just... well, a highly intellectual debate about dialectics, moralism and vaguely Freudian armchair psychoanalysis about "eternal return to a state of infantility" that quickly devolves into a shouting match full of insults about how the other guy is a spoiled brat who's never accomplished anything and speaks a dead language and has no taste because "that's the tragedy of doctor's sons" or that he's a GOAT! GOAT! GOAT!, all, of course, joined together with lots and lots of gesticulation and swearwords, and then out of the blue there's a surreal segue to skimpily dressed girls dancing to cheery pop music and the guy who was arguing just seconds ago jumps out of his chair and starts hopping and dancing all over the studio... that's just pure, distilled Italianness. Forget Dante and da Vinci and Vivaldi, this is your national heritage.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 01, 2021, 07:48:57 PM
In a masterful bit of "carpetbagging but not really" incumbent term-limited Naples mayor Luigi De Magistris, who also is a former prosecutor in Calabria (NB: he was indeed born and raised in Naples) has announced his candidacy. De Magistris notoriously was elected two times with a left-leaning anti-PD coalition. Here he has just received the support of Carlo Tansi, a guy who ran with a civic list in 2020.

Huh, weird move. He must be desperate to escape the ire of his arch-enemy De Luca. ;D

I used to like De Magistris but he's proven himself an incompetent buffoon during the COVID crisis. He'll almost certainly go down in flames.


Quote
In an even more masterful bit of "carpetbagging and YES really" like he has done a countless number of times, art critic turned politician turned pop culture icon Vittorio Sgarbi has announced his candidacy as well. Sgarbi is notoriously right-leaning, but there's no guarantee as to what his electorate might be.

oh God please no

Speaking of buffoons...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on March 01, 2021, 08:28:29 PM
Let us suppose we have not heard of this Vittorio Sgarbi. Tell us of him.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Estrella on March 01, 2021, 10:26:08 PM
lmaoooo



Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 02, 2021, 04:04:15 AM
Let us suppose we have not heard of this Vittorio Sgarbi. Tell us of him.

He was born almost seventy years ago in Ferrara and has had a successful career as university professor and art critic. At some point he started getting invited to TV shows to make divulgative art lessons... and he became rapidly a TV personality, notorious for having fiery opinions on his area of expertise and yelling and swearing a lot, especially against others. Then he decided to enter politics, switching around parties and/or regions faster than a spinning top. And this is how he has been for, what, more than thirty years.
Most people know him more for being the art critic who both can make engaging lessons and behaves like a buffoon at talk shows and picks fights with all sorts of other people, especially renowned is his favourite insult "YOU'RE IGNORANT AS A GOAT!" but I think his political career is possibly even more hilarious.
Before a wall of text about that which will take another post, let me just add that he has affirmed many times of being atheist, and some times of being Catholic, and that some time ago he was involved in my city's matters when he tried to stop the renovation of a central square, which he considered artistically heinous apparently.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 02, 2021, 04:50:44 AM
Vittorio Sgarbi's political career!
NB: I am probably missing something.

- A self described liberal.
- Despite not living in the Marche at all, in 1990 he accepted a PCI candidacy for the municipal council of Pesaro, then backed down and accepted one for the PSI in the small town of San Severino Marche, where he was elected.
- Between 1992 and 1993 he even became mayor of the latter town thanks to DC and MSI votes (mayors were not elected directly in Italy back then)...
- ...but in the meantime he had been elected Deputy with PLI at the 1992 election [in Sardinia]!
- In 1994 he was re-elected Deputy with Forza Italia [in Calabria] but he spent all the legislature sitting in the mixed group.
- In 1996 again he was elected to the Chamber in the FI lists [in Friuli-Venezia Giulia] but inscribed in the mixed group.
- In 1999 he briefly stopped his crazy wandering and ran for mayor of his hometown of Ferrara and for MEP from the North-East, both with Forza Italia. He was only elected to the latter.
- He left Bruxelles when in 2001 he was again re-elected Deputy with FI [in Veneto].
- He became Undersecretary of Cultural Heritage in the Berlusconi II government but he had, uhm, strong opinions on the matter and he was removed from the post after a year.
- Sgarbi then ran in the 2004 European election with whatever was left of the PRI (not even came close to being elected).
- In 2005 he switched to the centre-left and decided to run in the 2006 parliamentary election with a small centre-left list, but this time his luck ran out...
- ...but he also stipulated an agreement with the centre-right candidate for mayor of Milan, and when she was elected he became assessore [i.e. member of the municipal executive] for cultural heritage.
- In 2008 he was removed from the post but he did a honey badger move and just ran for mayor of the Sicilian village of Salemi with a centrist coalition and was elected.
- He resigned from that in 2012 and then the municipal administration was dissolved and commissioned because apparently some of the people who had supported his candidacy were using him as a cover and were doing affairs with the mafia behind his back.
- He then ran for mayor of another Sicilian town, Cefalù, in the same year, without getting elected.
- He spent the following years flipping between various assessore offices around the country.
- In 2017 he founded his own political movement called Rinascimento [Renaissance], and also had an upgrade to member of a regional executive, being nominated assessore of cultural heritage of Sicily.
- It only lasted some months because in 2018 he came back home <3 and ran for Deputy with Forza Italia. He ran in a single-member constituency in Campania, where he was destroyed by the M5S tide (precisely by Luigi Di Maio himself lmao), but also in the proportional lists... in the Modena-Ferrara constituency finally! He was elected from the latter.
- In 2018 he also ran for mayor of the small town of Sutri in Lazio, because of course he did, and won. He then - surprise surprise - switched from FI to the mixed group in the Chamber.
- In 2020 he was the FI list leader in the Emilia-Romagna regional election. He was elected but never took his seat because he preferred to remain in Parliament.

In this very moment Vittorio Sgarbi is the mayor of Sutri, and a member of the Chamber of Deputies.
He is also a murmured 2021 candidate for a) mayor of Rome b) mayor of Milan c) president of Calabria.
Of course, as you can guess he spends way more time explaining art and going to talk shows than administering Sutri. However one notable thing he did is that apparently he tried to ban mask wearing in Sutri last August *eyeroll*

EDIT: Forgot to add that apparently in 2018 his reasoning for moving to the mixed group again was "I invited Silvio to Sutri to celebrate my election but he didn't come. Hrumph >:( ".


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on March 02, 2021, 09:15:05 AM
Amazing. He sounds like a true Italian original, in the way that Ozawa Ichiro is a true Japanese original.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on March 02, 2021, 09:42:34 AM
Vittorio Sgarbi's political career!
NB: I am probably missing something.

- A self described liberal.
- Despite not living in the Marche at all, in 1990 he accepted a PCI candidacy for the municipal council of Pesaro, then backed down and accepted one for the PSI in the small town of San Severino Marche, where he was elected.
- Between 1992 and 1993 he even became mayor of the latter town thanks to DC and MSI votes (mayors were not elected directly in Italy back then)...
- ...but in the meantime he had been elected Deputy with PLI at the 1992 election [in Sardinia]!
- In 1994 he was re-elected Deputy with Forza Italia [in Calabria] but he spent all the legislature sitting in the mixed group.
- In 1996 again he was elected to the Chamber in the FI lists [in Friuli-Venezia Giulia] but inscribed in the mixed group.
- In 1999 he briefly stopped his crazy wandering and ran for mayor of his hometown of Ferrara and for MEP from the North-East, both with Forza Italia. He was only elected to the latter.
- He left Bruxelles when in 2001 he was again re-elected Deputy with FI [in Veneto].
- He became Undersecretary of Cultural Heritage in the Berlusconi II government but he had, uhm, strong opinions on the matter and he was removed from the post after a year.
- Sgarbi then ran in the 2004 European election with whatever was left of the PRI (not even came close to being elected).
- In 2005 he switched to the centre-left and decided to run in the 2006 parliamentary election with a small centre-left list, but this time his luck ran out...
- ...but he also stipulated an agreement with the centre-right candidate for mayor of Milan, and when she was elected he became assessore [i.e. member of the municipal executive] for cultural heritage.
- In 2008 he was removed from the post but he did a honey badger move and just ran for mayor of the Sicilian village of Salemi with a centrist coalition and was elected.
- He resigned from that in 2012 and then the municipal administration was dissolved and commissioned because apparently some of the people who had supported his candidacy were using him as a cover and were doing affairs with the mafia behind his back.
- He then ran for mayor of another Sicilian town, Cefalù, in the same year, without getting elected.
- He spent the following years flipping between various assessore offices around the country.
- In 2017 he founded his own political movement called Rinascimento [Renaissance], and also had an upgrade to member of a regional executive, being nominated assessore of cultural heritage of Sicily.
- It only lasted some months because in 2018 he came back home <3 and ran for Deputy with Forza Italia. He ran in a single-member constituency in Campania, where he was destroyed by the M5S tide (precisely by Luigi Di Maio himself lmao), but also in the proportional lists... in the Modena-Ferrara constituency finally! He was elected from the latter.
- In 2018 he also ran for mayor of the small town of Sutri in Lazio, because of course he did, and won. He then - surprise surprise - switched from FI to the mixed group in the Chamber.
- In 2020 he was the FI list leader in the Emilia-Romagna regional election. He was elected but never took his seat because he preferred to remain in Parliament.

In this very moment Vittorio Sgarbi is the mayor of Sutri, and a member of the Chamber of Deputies.
He is also a murmured 2021 candidate for a) mayor of Rome b) mayor of Milan c) president of Calabria.
Of course, as you can guess he spends way more time explaining art and going to talk shows than administering Sutri. However one notable thing he did is that apparently he tried to ban mask wearing in Sutri last August *eyeroll*

EDIT: Forgot to add that apparently in 2018 his reasoning for moving to the mixed group again was "I invited Silvio to Sutri to celebrate my election but he didn't come. Hrumph >:( ".


Pure gold, love that guy.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 02, 2021, 12:54:58 PM
Amazing. He sounds like a true Italian original, in the way that Ozawa Ichiro is a true Japanese original.

Yeah, I think Vittorio Sgarbi is in many ways quintessentially Italian. He actually reminds me of a mid-Kingdom-era politician: liberal, intellectual, non-clerical, shape-shifting, disaffected from the idea of party allegiance.

Totally random but I also found this. Sgarbi has children, but has never cared much for them or raised them. Apparently he once declared this on the matter: "I am against fatherhood. That of the father is not a category I reckon I should belong to. That said I am also against abortion. There are women who have wanted children from me, but never I from them because there cannot be an obligation to become father". Y i k e s


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 02, 2021, 09:15:46 PM
Amazing. He sounds like a true Italian original, in the way that Ozawa Ichiro is a true Japanese original.

Yeah, I think Vittorio Sgarbi is in many ways quintessentially Italian. He actually reminds me of a mid-Kingdom-era politician: liberal, intellectual, non-clerical, shape-shifting, disaffected from the idea of party allegiance.

Totally random but I also found this. Sgarbi has children, but has never cared much for them or raised them. Apparently he once declared this on the matter: "I am against fatherhood. That of the father is not a category I reckon I should belong to. That said I am also against abortion. There are women who have wanted children from me, but never I from them because there cannot be an obligation to become father". Y i k e s

Holy sh*t I didn't know that part.

I didn't know my opinion of Sgarbi could go any lower, but I stand corrected. What a guy.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Clarko95 📚💰📈 on March 04, 2021, 12:23:25 PM
Zingaretti resigns. Good night sweet prince :(


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 04, 2021, 12:26:29 PM
Yes, Nicola Zingaretti has just resigned from the leadership of PD, after a lot of tensions with ex-renziani.

I don't know what will happen next, but I start from the assumption that PD will do something stupid until proven otherwise.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 04, 2021, 03:03:49 PM
F**k. He was one of the few good ones.

PD just can't help committing suicide again and again, can it?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on March 04, 2021, 03:04:50 PM
goodbye sweet prince


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: FrancoAgo on March 04, 2021, 03:38:21 PM
And local elections postponed to 15th September -15th October


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Diouf on March 04, 2021, 04:29:08 PM
Happy to see Zingaretti out after the rumours that he wanted to make a deal with Salvini on a horrible majoritarian electoral system. Hopefully some of the pro-PR voices can now help push a good electoral law through


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: SPQR on March 04, 2021, 05:46:33 PM
It was a surprise move - and I still think it might be a tactical one, aimed at being reconfirmed at the national assembly and shut all internal minorities.

In general, I think a discussion about PD's placement and alliances is necessary, the push towards M5S is too strong to ignore. Conte has been praised and defended beyond all sense, and now if he is to lead M5S there is a real risk that PD ends up losing masses of votes.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 04, 2021, 07:35:55 PM
It was a surprise move - and I still think it might be a tactical one, aimed at being reconfirmed at the national assembly and shut all internal minorities.

In general, I think a discussion about PD's placement and alliances is necessary, the push towards M5S is too strong to ignore. Conte has been praised and defended beyond all sense, and now if he is to lead M5S there is a real risk that PD ends up losing masses of votes.

I agree that the placement with regards to M5S has not been dealt with greatly, but I don't think that the solution is to lapdog Renzi instead, and my understanding is that the centrist currents definitely want to lapdog Renzi.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Estrella on March 04, 2021, 07:39:16 PM
It was a surprise move - and I still think it might be a tactical one, aimed at being reconfirmed at the national assembly and shut all internal minorities.

In general, I think a discussion about PD's placement and alliances is necessary, the push towards M5S is too strong to ignore. Conte has been praised and defended beyond all sense, and now if he is to lead M5S there is a real risk that PD ends up losing masses of votes.

I agree that the placement with regards to M5S has not been dealt with greatly, but I don't think that the solution is to lapdog Renzi instead, and my understanding is that the centrist currents definitely want to lapdog Renzi.

You'd think they'd see Renzi's MASSIVE SUPPORT of 3-4% and put two and two together.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 04, 2021, 07:44:13 PM
It was a surprise move - and I still think it might be a tactical one, aimed at being reconfirmed at the national assembly and shut all internal minorities.

In general, I think a discussion about PD's placement and alliances is necessary, the push towards M5S is too strong to ignore. Conte has been praised and defended beyond all sense, and now if he is to lead M5S there is a real risk that PD ends up losing masses of votes.

I agree that the placement with regards to M5S has not been dealt with greatly, but I don't think that the solution is to lapdog Renzi instead, and my understanding is that the centrist currents definitely want to lapdog Renzi.

You'd think they'd see Renzi's MASSIVE SUPPORT of 3-4% and put two and two together.

But maybe their way of putting two and two together is that if they court Renzi to join back PD they get that 3-4% as a boost in the polls, instead.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: FrancoAgo on March 04, 2021, 08:04:37 PM
imho, if Renzi join back to PD, this go down of 3/4%, Renzi is hated from almost 80% of italians.
Renzi party is more on 2-3%, and probably less, smaller parties are overrapresented in the polls


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: CumbrianLefty on March 05, 2021, 08:45:29 AM
imho, if Renzi join back to PD, this go down of 3/4%, Renzi is hated from almost 80% of italians.
Renzi party is more on 2-3%, and probably less, smaller parties are overrapresented in the polls

And its fair to say that never used to be the case, its almost as if he is Blair on steroids.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Flyersfan232 on March 07, 2021, 05:17:45 PM
Has league ever considered a san Marino branch of the party? That political lane seem to be wide open


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 08, 2021, 03:50:59 AM
Has league ever considered a san Marino branch of the party? That political lane seem to be wide open

1. The average Italian never thinks about San Marino.

2. Even though before Mani pulite the San Marino party system was remarkably similar to the Italian one, this is not because their parties were branches of ours. Of course for example the Sanmarinese Christian Democratic Party had a close relationship with the Christian Democracy and so on, but they were functionally separate things (actually the PDCS still exists, which is pretty funny).

3. The concerns that have sustained Lega along the years (regional imbalance, federalism, immigration, the European Union) don't exist in any way in San Marino, so I am not sure there is any demand for such a political lane.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 12, 2021, 05:10:59 PM
Nicola Zingaretti has endorsed former President of the Council Enrico Letta as new PD secretary. Unless something weird happens at the party Assembly, he should become such.
Letta of course is remembered for having been basically ousted from the presidency of the Council by Renzi in 2014, shortly after Renzi's infamous "Enrico stai sereno" [Enrico, don't worry] tweet, then leaving PD in 2015 because of disagreement with the florentine yuppie himself, spending the following years as a professor and a policy expert around the world, and later getting back into PD after Zingaretti's election.

This behaviour that would arguably collocate him as closer to the left wing of the party is quite interesting for someone who comes from a DC/PPI/Margherita background. Honestly if he actually becomes secretary then PD will have managed to clearly beat my low expectations, although what will happen next remains to be seen.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: SPQR on March 14, 2021, 06:21:53 PM
Letta is officially the new secretary of PD.
Today he made a good speech, widely praised, mostly about PD having a strong identity and not being subalternate to M5S.
Essentially, after thanking Zingaretti in the very beginning, he went the opposite direction...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 15, 2021, 06:28:39 AM
Letta is officially the new secretary of PD.
Today he made a good speech, widely praised, mostly about PD having a strong identity and not being subalternate to M5S.
Essentially, after thanking Zingaretti in the very beginning, he went the opposite direction...

Letta's speech was pretty good, yes.
I wouldn't characterize this as going the opposite direction of Zingaretti, since there is much more to PD's placement than its relationship with M5S. I think it had quite a bit of shades of Prodi.
Anyway, for now I am feeling like PD managed to prove my assumptions wrong and make a good move. It should be noted that the latest polls have been quite rough for the party, seeing how this will evolve now that Letta has been elected is going to be of much interest.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: SPQR on March 15, 2021, 06:01:04 PM
Letta is officially the new secretary of PD.
Today he made a good speech, widely praised, mostly about PD having a strong identity and not being subalternate to M5S.
Essentially, after thanking Zingaretti in the very beginning, he went the opposite direction...

Letta's speech was pretty good, yes.
I wouldn't characterize this as going the opposite direction of Zingaretti, since there is much more to PD's placement than its relationship with M5S. I think it had quite a bit of shades of Prodi.
Anyway, for now I am feeling like PD managed to prove my assumptions wrong and make a good move. It should be noted that the latest polls have been quite rough for the party, seeing how this will evolve now that Letta has been elected is going to be of much interest.

Well, all of the talk in the latest months was purely about how close PD should be to M5S and how good Conte was and should be regarded as leader of the progressives, brought about by Zingaretti and his close advisors (such as Bettini).
Putting back PD under the spotlights, while obvious and necessary, is in quite sharp contrast to this.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Ethelberth on March 23, 2021, 03:22:20 AM
Has league ever considered a san Marino branch of the party? That political lane seem to be wide open

1. The average Italian never thinks about San Marino.

2. Even though before Mani pulite the San Marino party system was remarkably similar to the Italian one, this is not because their parties were branches of ours. Of course for example the Sanmarinese Christian Democratic Party had a close relationship with the Christian Democracy and so on, but they were functionally separate things (actually the PDCS still exists, which is pretty funny).

3. The concerns that have sustained Lega along the years (regional imbalance, federalism, immigration, the European Union) don't exist in any way in San Marino, so I am not sure there is any demand for such a political lane.

The most hilarious party used to be Sanmarinese National Alliance. 


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 23, 2021, 05:58:08 AM
Has league ever considered a san Marino branch of the party? That political lane seem to be wide open

1. The average Italian never thinks about San Marino.

2. Even though before Mani pulite the San Marino party system was remarkably similar to the Italian one, this is not because their parties were branches of ours. Of course for example the Sanmarinese Christian Democratic Party had a close relationship with the Christian Democracy and so on, but they were functionally separate things (actually the PDCS still exists, which is pretty funny).

3. The concerns that have sustained Lega along the years (regional imbalance, federalism, immigration, the European Union) don't exist in any way in San Marino, so I am not sure there is any demand for such a political lane.

The most hilarious party used to be Sanmarinese National Alliance. 

Yes, but they unsurprisingly never really went anywhere, since San Marino has a structural preference for parties positioned on the left.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 24, 2021, 10:12:38 AM
Some random updates just because:

- There will be a round of reopenings, most significantly of schools (and in some cases universities, though as far as I reckon individual institutions have ample latitude), starting on April 26th.
- The Draghi government has presented a revised version of the Recovery Plan, but unsurprisingly it seems the government parties are divided on it.
- President of the Chamber of Deputies Roberto Fico has been proposed as a possible CSX+M5S candidate for the mayor seat in Naples. I prefer not to comment.
- Tomorrow is Liberation Day, and I am looking forward to hard right concern trolling about it being a dIviSive hOlidAy.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on May 21, 2021, 08:11:09 AM
It is probably time to give some sort of monthly update for whoever reads this:

- As I long expected would sometime happen, Lega, PD and FdI are now all crammed together between 18-19% and 21-22% in the polls and tightening.
- Relatedly, Lega and FdI are skirmishing over everything and Salvini and Meloni have not had proper coalition meetings in months. What were considered the likely centre-right candidates for mayor in Milan (Gabriele Albertini, former mayor) and in Rome (Guido Bertolaso, former Civil Protection chief and therefore someone with plenty of experience with emergencies and disasters) have both renounced.
- Confidence in the Draghi government seems to be pretty high. Considering COVID is by far the primary focus and what we have seen so far has been ever-accelerating vaccination rates and some rounds of reopenings, I am not surprised.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 05, 2021, 03:11:18 PM
1. The final draft of the Recovery Plan which will make use of the EU funds has been approved and should be in the process of being vetted in Bruxelles right now, but I don't know about the technical details. I skimmed through it and it sounds pretty cool. The allocation of funds is divided into six parts: digitalization, innovation, culture and tourism; ecological transition and green policies; infrastructure and transport; education and research; cohesion and inclusion; healthcare. The ecological part has been allocated the most funds and it is not close (as we had known for long), but all the six are pretty big - at least 20 billion euros each. The infrastructure and transport part has a massive focus on trains and a significant focus on the South, and I being who I am, I was euphoric when I read that.

2. The Ligurian regional president, Giovanni Toti, who had broke from Forza Italia a couple years and founded his own tiny party called Cambiamo!, has decided to join forces with Venice mayor Luigi Brugnaro and former FI dinosaur Gaetano Quagliariello. They have also managed to scoop up a surprising number of members of Parliament, especially Deputies snatched from Forza Italia - currently the new group numbers 23 in the Chamber. Coraggio Italia sits at around 2% in its first polls. Gah, I'd rather not have such a character as regional president.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 08, 2021, 07:41:24 AM
1. It looks like Salvini proposed a "federation" of Forza Italia and Lega, Berlusconi replied favourably, and then backtracked after most FI regional coordinators were seething mad at this, which stalled everything. Now among other things a meeting between the two parties to discuss the local elections has been canceled. This, of course, must be understood in the context of Lega and FI being together in government, as opposed to FdI, and the latter party having almost reached Lega in the polls. In short, another episode of big spicy right-wing infighting.

2. I think I should mention that this hilarious parliamentary group (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=294475.msg7920372#msg7920372) was very short-lived and disbanded at the end of March, including Tatjana Rojc going back to the PD group. What an absolutely pointless operation lmao

3. I am not sure I had ever realized how making so many consecutive posts sucks. But Antonio has a doctoral dissertation to write and as long as the non-Italians don't have much to say this thread will continue that way.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Conservatopia on June 08, 2021, 10:32:51 AM
It seems a shame for Batty to make lots of posts in a row so I'll break it up by saying:

Go Meloni !!1!!1!


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on June 09, 2021, 12:39:25 AM
It seems a shame for Batty to make lots of posts in a row so I'll break it up by saying:

Go Meloni !!1!!1!

I appreciate that you opt for the #girlboss-led hard right over the overgrown-Call of Duty-bro-led hard right.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Conservatopia on June 09, 2021, 01:54:35 AM
It seems a shame for Batty to make lots of posts in a row so I'll break it up by saying:

Go Meloni !!1!!1!

I appreciate that you opt for the #girlboss-led hard right over the overgrown-Call of Duty-bro-led hard right.

I'm such a simp right?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 09, 2021, 02:41:46 PM
It seems a shame for Batty to make lots of posts in a row so I'll break it up by saying:

Go Meloni !!1!!1!

I appreciate that you opt for the #girlboss-led hard right over the overgrown-Call of Duty-bro-led hard right.

I'm such a simp right?

Apparently. On an unrelated note, I can't express exactly how irritating it is to be called "Batty".


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Geoffrey Howe on June 09, 2021, 02:52:30 PM
FdI seem completely nutty.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 09, 2021, 04:22:40 PM

Do they seem more completely nutty than Lega to you?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Geoffrey Howe on June 09, 2021, 04:31:13 PM

My impression was that their rise was a reaction to Salvini becoming “too moderate” or “selling out.”


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 09, 2021, 04:35:12 PM

My impression was that their rise was a reaction to Salvini becoming “too moderate” or “selling out.”

Mine has always been that their rise was a reaction to Salvini overplaying his hand and becoming a tired thing after his move in August 2020 spectacularly backfired. I don't think Salvini was seen as "selling out" at least until his party joined the Draghi government. I am not sure how many Italians see Lega as more moderate than FdI - I am not one of them in any case.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Geoffrey Howe on June 09, 2021, 04:36:58 PM

My impression was that their rise was a reaction to Salvini becoming “too moderate” or “selling out.”

Mine has always been that their rise was a reaction to Salvini overplaying his hand and becoming a tired thing after his move in August 2020 spectacularly backfired. I don't think Salvini was seen as "selling out" at least until his party joined the Draghi government. I am not sure how many Italians see Lega as more moderate than FdI - I am not one of them in any case.

I don’t follow Italian politics closely, but there was an interesting article about it in the Economist; also, their rise in the polls is a mirror image of Lega’s fall.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 09, 2021, 04:51:01 PM

My impression was that their rise was a reaction to Salvini becoming “too moderate” or “selling out.”

Mine has always been that their rise was a reaction to Salvini overplaying his hand and becoming a tired thing after his move in August 2020 spectacularly backfired. I don't think Salvini was seen as "selling out" at least until his party joined the Draghi government. I am not sure how many Italians see Lega as more moderate than FdI - I am not one of them in any case.

I don’t follow Italian politics closely, but there was an interesting article about it in the Economist; also, their rise in the polls is a mirror image of Lega’s fall.

Oh, I perfectly realize the second part - and it probably would be shocking if it were not so - I just think that Salvini has revealed himself as a bad strategist and has seen his novelty wear off somewhat.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: MRCVzla on June 09, 2021, 05:57:31 PM
2. The Ligurian regional president, Giovanni Toti, who had broke from Forza Italia a couple years and founded his own tiny party called Cambiamo!, has decided to join forces with Venice mayor Luigi Brugnaro and former FI dinosaur Gaetano Quagliariello. They have also managed to scoop up a surprising number of members of Parliament, especially Deputies snatched from Forza Italia - currently the new group numbers 23 in the Chamber. Coraggio Italia sits at around 2% in its first polls. Gah, I'd rather not have such a character as regional president.

When they presented the group, Toti and Brugnaro literally sayed "Thank you Silvio for leading the moderate center-right, but your time is up...". The group also has 7 senators (6 from the Idea-Cambiamo! sub-component in Mixed Group, and they added former Liguria president Sandro Biassotti from FI). It's very europeist and supports Draghi cabinet. Note apart to say of the 10 MP who formed the Cambiamo!-Popolo Protagonista (a christian democrat splinter from M5S) sub-component, 2 MP not joined the new CI group and still in the Mixed Group.

On election notes, along the administrative/local and Calabria regional elections, in September also will held 2 by-elections from the Chamber, the Siena district who has months vacant and other one in Rome (held in 2018 by M5S, MP for the district left the seat days ago). Rumors says that Enrico Letta and Giuseppe Conte will potentially be the candidates for the CSX+M5S alliance in that districts.

Alongside Recovery Fund, a hot topic in Italian politics in the last months it's the known as "DDL Zan" (Law Decree Zan) named after proponent PD MP Alessandro Zan, the bill is against any type of discrimination for the LGBT+ community (or "anti homophobia"), and "suprisly", opinion polls showed overall support for the bill, even by most of the center-right voters

In a last, but sadly note, this week passed away Guglielmo Epifani, MP for Liberi and Eguali and also brief PD leader during 2013 (between Bersani and Renzi terms), also was the first socialist to lead the CGIL, a notorious workers central, may he RIP.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Oryxslayer on June 09, 2021, 06:09:39 PM
My impression was always that the support for Lega in the polls was weak, but not in the traditional sense. Lega, as a northern party, was never a perfect fit for the southern conservatives and populists, but after the decline of Forza it was the only horse in town. The FdI have now stepped into that vacuum.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 15, 2021, 02:26:58 PM
I would like to mention that a few days ago a poll came out which was the first one in more than two years and a half not to have Lega in first place, and also likely the first one ever to have Fratelli d'Italia above Lega, although both hard right parties were below PD. This was somewhat of an outlier of course, for the Democratic Party in particular, but it is symbolic. At this point I expect to see polls with FdI as the first party pretty soon. This is liable to have a significant effect within the right wing.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: FrancoAgo on June 15, 2021, 05:08:56 PM


Alongside Recovery Fund, a hot topic in Italian politics in the last months it's the known as "DDL Zan" (Law Decree Zan) named after proponent PD MP Alessandro Zan

DDL mean Disegno di Legge, so i think the right translation is proposed Bill or draft law


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 16, 2021, 04:53:16 PM
Some updates on the Calabrian regional election:

- Today the centre-right coalition made official the choice of Roberto Occhiuto (who, again, is a Deputy for Forza Italia and the brother of the mayor of Cozenza) as their candidate to the presidency.
- Carlo Tansi, after months of support to and work together with Luigi De Magistris, recently broke with him and apparently has decided to run again with his civic list like he did in 2020. De Magistris is still running himself, of course.
- Italia Viva looks likely to present a candidate of their own, separate from the main centre-left one, possibly Senator Ernesto Magorno.
- Still nothing definitive in the centre-left coalition; most significantly, Nicola Irto, whom I had mentioned being the most likely name to lead the coalition, has officially renounced.

At this point I think it is safe to conclude that Roberto Occhiuto is by far the most likely next president of Calabria.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Conservatopia on June 17, 2021, 07:12:33 AM
Sgarbi-mentum incoming and LOUD.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 17, 2021, 08:35:22 AM

It is not even clear if he is actually going to run in Calabria, or if he prefers the Rome mayoral election, or neither. But if you have read my post about his crazy political career, this is hardly surprising.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 20, 2021, 08:59:33 AM
Today there are the centre-left coalition electoral type event primaries for mayor of Rome. The local PD has endorsed former Minister of the Economy and Finance Roberto Gualtieri, therefore I fully expect him to win against the closest opposition, represented by Giovanni Caudo, a centre-left independent currently serving as president of Municipio III [north-east Rome].

Meanwhile, the centre-right officialized a few days ago the choice of lawyer Enrico Michetti as their candidate, and the way our national treasure Sgarbi fits into that appears to be that he has renounced to be a candidate himself in exchange for being named assessore of Culture in case Michetti wins.

I will make a longer post on the race presumably tomorrow after the centre-left primaries' result is known.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 21, 2021, 01:45:50 PM
Oh well. Roberto Gualtieri unsurprisingly won the centre-left nomination in Rome, so we now should have the final list of main contenders to the mayoralty of the largest city and capital of Italy:

1. Roberto Gualtieri, Deputy for the single-member Roma Centro/Trionfale constituency and former Minister of the Economy and Finance. Supported by PD and various other minor left and centre-left parties.
2. Enrico Michetti, lawyer and law professor, with no previous active political experience. Supported by FI, Lega, FdI - the entire centre-right coalition.
3. Virginia Raggi, incumbent mayor. Supported by M5S.
4. Carlo Calenda, member of the European Parliament and former Minister for Economic Development. Supported by Azione, Italia Viva and +E.

Recent first-round polling suggests that Michetti and Gualtieri are roughly tied for first place, with Michetti actually maybe slightly ahead, and both have a sizable lead over Raggi in third place and then Calenda in fourth (a very recent poll has Calenda above Raggi, but it was commissioned by Azione so I take it with a huge grain of salt). The likely runoff is therefore between Gualtieri and Michetti, and it looks like the former has the upper hand.
This would be an awfully big turn from 2016, when Raggi got 35% in the first round and then won the runoff with two thirds of the vote, but not a surprising one considering her significant unpopularity (and the fact that M5S has in general less support now than it had back then). However it would also be par for the course for recent Rome mayors, considering how Gianni Alemanno got crushed in the 2013 runoff only for his defeater Ignazio Marino to face an ignoble early end to his term followed by the aforementioned disaster of PD's candidate in the 2016 runoff.

A couple polls I have seen also had crosstabs for subsections of the city. One of them I would discard because I couldn't find how the various zones were defined and the results looked bunk (Raggi doing the best by far in north Rome? the opposite for Michetti? colour me skeptical); the other one however was pretty informative. It confirmed my presumptions in that it showed a centre-left vote distribution that is less strongly centralized and gentrified than in 2018/2019 thanks mostly to Calenda stealing votes of ~rich liberals~ (watch out for Municipio II).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on June 24, 2021, 12:36:09 PM
From 1 to 100, how this modern PSI is just a corruption-nepotist scheme and not a real, left-wing political party? (inb4 all Italian political parties are corruption schemes).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 25, 2021, 11:55:10 AM
From 1 to 100, how this modern PSI is just a corruption-nepotist scheme and not a real, left-wing political party? (inb4 all Italian political parties are corruption schemes).

If you mean Riccardo Nencini's PSI, I don't believe it is meaningfully left-wing or a meaningful party at all, but I have no idea how corrupt it is.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 26, 2021, 08:13:41 AM
I would like to mention that a few days ago a poll came out which was the first one in more than two years and a half not to have Lega in first place, and also likely the first one ever to have Fratelli d'Italia above Lega, although both hard right parties were below PD. This was somewhat of an outlier of course, for the Democratic Party in particular, but it is symbolic. At this point I expect to see polls with FdI as the first party pretty soon. This is liable to have a significant effect within the right wing.

And so it has happened. In the last couple days we have gotten a poll with Lega and Fratelli d'Italia tied for first place, and then one with FdI leading if only by a tenth of a percentage point, for the first time ever. This is historic, although what will come next remains to be seen. Still the rise of Giorgia Meloni continues.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Flyersfan232 on June 27, 2021, 05:55:45 PM
I would like to mention that a few days ago a poll came out which was the first one in more than two years and a half not to have Lega in first place, and also likely the first one ever to have Fratelli d'Italia above Lega, although both hard right parties were below PD. This was somewhat of an outlier of course, for the Democratic Party in particular, but it is symbolic. At this point I expect to see polls with FdI as the first party pretty soon. This is liable to have a significant effect within the right wing.

And so it has happened. In the last couple days we have gotten a poll with Lega and Fratelli d'Italia tied for first place, and then one with FdI leading if only by a tenth of a percentage point, for the first time ever. This is historic, although what will come next remains to be seen. Still the rise of Giorgia Meloni continues.
salvini pulls out of the draghl government?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 27, 2021, 10:25:24 PM
I would like to mention that a few days ago a poll came out which was the first one in more than two years and a half not to have Lega in first place, and also likely the first one ever to have Fratelli d'Italia above Lega, although both hard right parties were below PD. This was somewhat of an outlier of course, for the Democratic Party in particular, but it is symbolic. At this point I expect to see polls with FdI as the first party pretty soon. This is liable to have a significant effect within the right wing.

And so it has happened. In the last couple days we have gotten a poll with Lega and Fratelli d'Italia tied for first place, and then one with FdI leading if only by a tenth of a percentage point, for the first time ever. This is historic, although what will come next remains to be seen. Still the rise of Giorgia Meloni continues.
salvini pulls out of the draghl government?

No, I don't think that's going to happen. Lega has decided to try and play from the inside and have a direct influence on government policy and it seems to me it would be unsound to leave now.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 28, 2021, 11:34:17 AM
From 1 to 100, how this modern PSI is just a corruption-nepotist scheme and not a real, left-wing political party? (inb4 all Italian political parties are corruption schemes).

If you mean Riccardo Nencini's PSI, I don't believe it is meaningfully left-wing or a meaningful party at all, but I have no idea how corrupt it is.

I guess the point is that in order to be corrupt you need to get into power first there :P


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on June 28, 2021, 12:32:19 PM
From 1 to 100, how this modern PSI is just a corruption-nepotist scheme and not a real, left-wing political party? (inb4 all Italian political parties are corruption schemes).

If you mean Riccardo Nencini's PSI, I don't believe it is meaningfully left-wing or a meaningful party at all, but I have no idea how corrupt it is.

I guess the point is that in order to be corrupt you need to get into power first there :P


Well, you can be corrupt even having one town councillor on your side tbh


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 02, 2021, 02:22:35 PM
The Five Star Movement is being subject to a big infighting between its founder Beppe Grillo and Giuseppe Conte, who joined the party after leaving the Presidency of the Council. Also, Salvini and Meloni today both signed a document that has been described as a "charter of European souverainists" together with all other parties affiliated with the ECR and I&D European Parliament groups plus Fidesz.

We should also have the final outline of the main candidates in the regional election in Calabria, since the centre-left and M5S have officialized their joint candidate in Maria Antonietta Ventura, president of the regional chapter of UNICEF.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Conservatopia on July 03, 2021, 01:55:45 PM
We should also have the final outline of the main candidates in the regional election in Calabria, since the centre-left and M5S have officialized their joint candidate in Maria Antonietta Ventura, president of the regional chapter of UNICEF.

Let them eat panettone.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 03, 2021, 02:05:30 PM
We should also have the final outline of the main candidates in the regional election in Calabria, since the centre-left and M5S have officialized their joint candidate in Maria Antonietta Ventura, president of the regional chapter of UNICEF.

Let them eat panettone.

I had a feeling someone would make a pun about her name...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 07, 2021, 12:02:39 PM
We should also have the final outline of the main candidates in the regional election in Calabria, since the centre-left and M5S have officialized their joint candidate in Maria Antonietta Ventura, president of the regional chapter of UNICEF.

...and her candidacy was extremely short-lived. Ventura renounced a few days ago, and the Calabrian centre-left has to be in chaos now.

Meanwhile Michetti seems to have taken a bigger lead in recent polls of Rome, and one of these days I should make a comprehensive post about the municipal elections of all other major cities who go to the poll this year.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Conservatopia on July 07, 2021, 02:45:37 PM
We should also have the final outline of the main candidates in the regional election in Calabria, since the centre-left and M5S have officialized their joint candidate in Maria Antonietta Ventura, president of the regional chapter of UNICEF.

...and her candidacy was extremely short-lived. Ventura renounced a few days ago, and the Calabrian centre-left has to be in chaos now.


Coincidentally Marie Antoinette also got cut short.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Estrella on July 07, 2021, 03:13:45 PM
We should also have the final outline of the main candidates in the regional election in Calabria, since the centre-left and M5S have officialized their joint candidate in Maria Antonietta Ventura, president of the regional chapter of UNICEF.

...and her candidacy was extremely short-lived. Ventura renounced a few days ago, and the Calabrian centre-left has to be in chaos now.


Coincidentally Marie Antoinette also got cut short.

Can't believe people keep telling these stale puns thinking they're something revolutionary.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: PSOL on July 07, 2021, 11:31:51 PM
If I was an Italian voter I would abstain from voting in this joke of a political climate. I say this knowing that a right-wing government is on the door, but given Italy is ungovernable I doubt they last long.

All of Italy’s political establishment is junk, complete junk. The actual Italian left is a complete failure for not organizing a cohesive ticket together.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 20, 2021, 06:32:32 PM
And of course, the Calabrian election keeps having twists and turns!

The centre-left and M5S coalition has settled on neurologist Amalia Bruni as their candidate, our old friend Carlo Tansi has decided to retire his candidacy and support Bruni, Italia Viva's Ernesto Magorno has also retired his candidacy but the new plans of Renzi's party have not been announced yet, and Fratelli d'Italia is now moaning about Occhiuto and potentially threatening centre-right unity.

Meanwhile, the rift in the national M5S seems to have been closed, and I am still procrastinating on making an effortpost about non-Rome mayoral races.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Libertas Vel Mors on July 22, 2021, 08:11:46 PM
If I was an Italian voter I would abstain from voting

Good.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 13, 2021, 05:04:51 PM
Election Day 2021 has been officially announced: voting will be held on October 3rd (Sunday) and October 4th (Monday). Time for a yuuuge recollection post!
In addition, municipal runoffs, which happen between the top two mayoral candidates in case no one received an absolute majority of the votes, will be held on October 17th and 18th.


REGIONAL ELECTIONS

CALABRIA
This election is being held just one year (well, one year and a half) after the previous one because the Regional President elected in 2020, Jole Santelli from Forza Italia, died unexpectedly last October due to cancer complications. The main candidates are:

1. Roberto Occhiuto, Deputy for Forza Italia. Supported by a broad centre-right coalition.
2. Amalia Bruni, neurologist with no previous political experience. Supported by much of the centre-left and by M5S.
3. Luigi De Magistris, incumbent mayor of Naples (who cannot by law seek another term) and former assistant prosecutor for the judicial district of Catanzaro. Supported by an array of civic lists with a mostly leftist orientation.

Polling for the race is scarce and kind of unreliable but it seems clear that Occhiuto has the advantage. I would be rather surprised to see him lose, barring unforeseen developments.


MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS

As with every year, there will be local elections in a sizable share of Italian municipalities. This year is particularly important because among those who vote are included all of the four largest cities in Italy (Rome, Milan, Naples, Turin), in addition to another one of the top ten (Bologna). I will limit myself to covering these ones for now, as my time and energy and interest are constrained.

ROME
Incumbent mayor Virginia Raggi (M5S) was elected in 2016 in a runoff landslide, but she is currently quite unpopular and may not even reach the runoff this year. I have already gone over the candidates here:

1. Roberto Gualtieri, Deputy for the single-member Roma Centro/Trionfale constituency and former Minister of the Economy and Finance. Supported by PD and various other minor left and centre-left parties.
2. Enrico Michetti, lawyer and law professor, with no previous active political experience. Supported by FI, Lega, FdI - the entire centre-right coalition.
3. Virginia Raggi, incumbent mayor. Supported by M5S.
4. Carlo Calenda, member of the European Parliament and former Minister for Economic Development. Supported by Azione, Italia Viva and +E.

The most recent polls now have Michetti clearly leading in the first round, with Gualtieri second, Raggi third and Calenda fourth. The likely runoff is still between Michetti and Gualtieri - the latter is quite less sure of reaching it, but should he do that he is also in a significantly better position to win.

MILAN
Incumbent mayor Giuseppe Sala (centre-left independent) was only narrowly elected in a runoff in 2016, but he has strong chances of re-election. The main candidates are:

1. Giuseppe Sala, incumbent mayor. Supported by a broad centre-left coalition.
2. Luca Bernardo, pediatrician with no previous political experience. Supported by a broad centre-right coalition.
3. Elena Sironi, member of the local council of Milan's Municipio 4. Supported by the M5S. Well, technically she has been indicated by the activist base but not yet officialized by the high ranks i.e. Conte, but I doubt she will be rejected.

I mentioned Sironi (or whoever the M5S candidate will end up being) mostly for completeness, as all polls broadly agree in having Sala and Bernardo in the 40's with M5S in the single digits, in percentage terms. Thus Sala and Bernardo are the only ones with a real chance to a win, although in all certainty the result will be decided in a runoff, where the Five Stars' and other minor candidates' supporters might tip the balance. As a side note, among the flurry of minor candidates I should at least mention noted personality Gianluigi Paragone, whom I had dedicated a post to a while ago (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=294475.msg7956317#msg7956317).

NAPLES
Incumbent mayor Luigi De Magistris is unable to run again as noted above. The notable candidates are:

1. Gaetano Manfredi, former rector of the University of Naples and former Minister of University. Supported by much of the centre-left and by M5S, with strong endorsements from the likes of Vincenzo De Luca and Giuseppe Conte (the latter of which has just been forcefully denying rumours that he is going to run for this position as well).
2. Catello Maresca, assistant prosecutor for the judicial district of Naples, although he has been in... leave of absence since officializing his candidacy. Supported by the centre-right coalition.
3. Antonio Bassolino, already mayor of Naples during the 1990's, but also President of Campania during the 2000's, in both cases the first person to be directly elected to the office; he had also been a Deputy and Minister of Labour; always on the left (PCI -> PDS -> DS -> PD) but has been an independent since 2017. Supported by civic lists on the left, but also surprisingly endorsed by Carlo Calenda and his Azione.
4. Alessandra Clemente, member of the De Magistris municipal administration who has just resigned to concentrate on her mayoral candidacy. Supported by De Magistris's personal party (DemA) of course, so in a leftist or progressive area.

Polling suggests that Manfredi is solidly in first place, not far from clearing the 50% majority and winning in the first round but also not quite there yet. Maresca is in second and appears to have ample margin over Bassolino, third, and Clemente, fourth. Even if a runoff is needed, I think Manfredi is the clear favourite.

TURIN
Incumbent mayor Chiara Appendino (M5S) was elected in 2016 in a way not dissimilar from her Roman counterpart. However she self-suspended from the party and declined to run for re-election last year after a conviction for fraudulently producing an inaccurate budget. Here are the main candidates to replace her:

1. Paolo Damilano, enterpreneur, once again someone from outside the political world. Supported by the centre-right coalition.
2. Stefano Lo Russo, city council member for PD. Supported by the centre-left coalition.
3. Valentina Sganga, city council member for M5S. Supported by M5S and by the incumbent administration of course.

The polling situation appears very similar to that in Milan, except in this case the centre-right has a clear if slight edge, and the M5S should do a bit better.

BOLOGNA
Incumbent Virginio Merola (PD) is barred from running for re-election a second time, like De Magistris. The city has always been a stronghold for the left/centre-left, and while this surprisingly broke at the municipal level once in 1999, there is next to no chance of this happening this year. The two main contenders are:

1. Matteo Lepore, former member of the Merola administration. Supported by all the centre-left and M5S.
2. Fabio Battistini, another enterpreneur. Supported by the centre-right coalition.

As I said, Lepore is a clear favourite, and may very well win in the first round, with some polls already putting him over 50%.


PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS

There will be two by-elections to first-past-the-post seats in the Chamber of Deputies as well. One of them is unlikely to attract significant attention at all, but the other is different. As a disclaimer I cannot find polls for either of them.

TUSCANY - 12 (SIENA)
Seat left open when Pier Carlo Padoan (PD) resigned to join the board of directors of the Unicredit bank group. Pretty significant to me for a couple reasons: firstly, it is a historical stronghold for the left/centre-left but it could be competitive nowadays; secondly, perhaps more importantly, PD leader Enrico Letta is running in it to try and re-enter Parliament.
Letta is supported by pretty much all of the centre-left and by M5S. His opponent for the centre-right coalition will be Tommaso Marrocchesi Marzi, unsurprisingly... a local enterpreneur. I assume Letta to have the clear upper hand especially since he can shore up the centre-left support with Five Stars voters.

LAZIO 1 - 11 (ROMA PRIMAVALLE)
Seat left open when Emanuela Del Re (M5S) resigned to become special EU representative for the Sahel region. The district covers an urban-to-suburban area in western Rome, which doesn't seem to obviously favour one coalition or the other. There is speculation that Giuseppe Conte may run for this seat, but as of now the only significant person to have officially declared his candidacy seems to be Luca Palamara, a famous former judge who was expelled from the judiciary in 2020 after he was exposed as a key figure in a system of corruption, favouritisms, shady deals in appointing prosecutors and the like. I don't expect Palamara to end up as a relevant player at all however.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: PSOL on August 13, 2021, 05:17:54 PM
Well now I’m voting for LeU.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 15, 2021, 02:10:33 PM
There surely is much to add to my last effortpost, especially on national politics but I am on holiday and the electoral aspect of things is more spicy anyway, so what I will talk about today is just that our old friend Vittorio Sgarbi (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=294475.msg7978930#msg7978930) - who by the way has surprisingly or unsurprisingly ended up not running for anything this electoral cycle - has endorsed Palamara in the Rome by-election and urged the rest of the centre-right to support him as well (which will not happen). This is both extremely in character for the art critic and extremely hilarious, not least since Salvini is currently all engaged in collecting signatures for a series of referenda on the judiciary.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 27, 2021, 09:33:15 AM
On the topic of the parliamentary by-elections, we still somehow have no major party candidate officialized in the Rome one (and Conte will not run), but what we have is another notable name among the minor candidates: Elisabetta Trenta, former Minister of Defence during the Conte I government.

Meanwhile, since this is mid-to-late August and most people (even most pollsters lol) are on vacation, the biggest domestic news of the day is that Claudio Durigon, a government undersecretary from Lega, has just resigned after controversy ensued from his proposal to rename a park in Latina dedicated to Falcone and Borsellino after Benito Mussolini's brother. Good riddance.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: njwes on August 27, 2021, 11:10:16 AM
Meanwhile, since this is mid-to-late August and most people (even most pollsters lol) are on vacation...

Thanks for this--I was getting worried about the shocking dearth of Italy polls in recent weeks!  :'[


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 27, 2021, 05:17:20 PM
Meanwhile, since this is mid-to-late August and most people (even most pollsters lol) are on vacation...

Thanks for this--I was getting worried about the shocking dearth of Italy polls in recent weeks!  :'[

That happens pretty regularly with Italian polls in August, don't worry.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Conservatopia on August 28, 2021, 04:07:37 AM
Why does Italy have so many polls compared to other countries?  Is it just much cheaper somehow or is there another reason?

I wish other countries would do as much polling as the Italians pump out.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 29, 2021, 01:11:10 AM
All right folks, Battista has been pestering me to update the thread title for a few weeks, and now I can finally do so. I'm not planning on ceding control of this megathread anytime soon. ;D

I don't have much in the way of thoughts on Italian politics lately, it seems to be largely same-old-same-old stuff. There were some fun developments a few months ago, including the hilarious standoff between Conte and Grillo, but that's old news. Mostly now we're just waiting for the inevitable march toward the next general elections and the inevitable victory of the (far-)right. I doubt this government will be doing anything significant except bicker. That is, after all, the natural state of Italian politics.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 29, 2021, 06:33:42 AM
Why does Italy have so many polls compared to other countries?  Is it just much cheaper somehow or is there another reason?

I wish other countries would do as much polling as the Italians pump out.

Tbf there were a *lot* of GB polls before their big debacle in the 2015 GE (in particular, YouGov used to publish a "tracker" at least 5 times a week)


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 29, 2021, 10:38:22 AM
All right folks, Battista has been pestering me to update the thread title for a few weeks, and now I can finally do so. I'm not planning on ceding control of this megathread anytime soon. ;D

Thank you! Finally. ;D

Quote
I don't have much in the way of thoughts on Italian politics lately, it seems to be largely same-old-same-old stuff. There were some fun developments a few months ago, including the hilarious standoff between Conte and Grillo, but that's old news. Mostly now we're just waiting for the inevitable march toward the next general elections and the inevitable victory of the (far-)right. I doubt this government will be doing anything significant except bicker. That is, after all, the natural state of Italian politics.

Oh I have to disagree here, this government is intent on passing a significant justice reform and a tax reform and will have to effectively implement the Recovery Plan, for one. I also think that the local elections might affect our political balance - but maybe I am just deluding myself. We'll see!


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 29, 2021, 01:58:41 PM
All right folks, Battista has been pestering me to update the thread title for a few weeks, and now I can finally do so. I'm not planning on ceding control of this megathread anytime soon. ;D

Thank you! Finally. ;D

Quote
I don't have much in the way of thoughts on Italian politics lately, it seems to be largely same-old-same-old stuff. There were some fun developments a few months ago, including the hilarious standoff between Conte and Grillo, but that's old news. Mostly now we're just waiting for the inevitable march toward the next general elections and the inevitable victory of the (far-)right. I doubt this government will be doing anything significant except bicker. That is, after all, the natural state of Italian politics.

Oh I have to disagree here, this government is intent on passing a significant justice reform and a tax reform and will have to effectively implement the Recovery Plan, for one. I also think that the local elections might affect our political balance - but maybe I am just deluding myself. We'll see!

I guess that's fair. Ultimately all of this seems pretty futile to me, but maybe I'm being overly gloomy. We shall see.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2021: Super Mario 2
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 08, 2021, 08:27:38 AM
Some updates on the local elections because I can:

3. Elena Sironi, member of the local council of Milan's Municipio 4. Supported by the M5S. Well, technically she has been indicated by the activist base but not yet officialized by the high ranks i.e. Conte, but I doubt she will be rejected.

Ha! I really shouldn't have talked, should I? Sironi was rejected and the actual M5S candidate in Milan will be Layla Pavone, until a couple weeks ago a member of the directors board of the newspaper Il Fatto Quotidiano. This is all extremely on brand for the party - not that it matters of course since their chances to go to a runoff are fundamentally zero.

Also, I should say something about Trieste, the largest city electing its mayor this year I did not cover in that long post. Incumbent centre-right mayor Roberto Dipiazza is seeking re-election to yet another term - he's had a remarkable career, being mayor of the nearby town of Muggia from 1996 to 2001, then mayor of Trieste from 2001 to 2011, and again since 2016. His main opponent for the centre-left is Francesco Russo, FVG regional councilor and former Senator. The M5S is running separately but their candidate looks very likely to take crumbs. All in all a pretty similar situation to the other Northern cities of Turin and Milan, but in this case the centre-right i.e. Dipiazza has clearly the upper hand - may be the incumbency factor? Still I would expect to see a runoff happen.

I would also like to mention one very famous mayor who is running for re-election this year, even if his city is not particularly significant beyond being a provincial seat: Benevento's Clemente Mastella, a household name from the Berlusconi era notable for starting a load of "centrist" parties, shifting alliances as he pleased, managing to be a minister both under Berlusconi and under Prodi, causing the downfall of the Prodi II government. A true inland Appenninic Campanian original - I assume he will be easily re-elected.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on September 14, 2021, 09:07:05 AM
How the Presidential race shaping up?


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 14, 2021, 12:14:27 PM

This is a difficult question to answer because it is not a popular election and often Presidential elections start with parties being very far from anything like an agreement. Having said that there are a few things we know.

Mario Draghi is considered the most plausible candidate, but it is unclear how willing he would be to leave his post as head of government. There is some support for the proposal of re-electing Mattarella in a similar fashion to Napolitano in 2013, although Mattarella is officially uninterested. Another non-partisan name that is often mentioned is Minister of Justice Marta Cartabia - who would be the first female President of the Republic. Various partisan figures are in the mix too - for instance it is no secret that many on the right would love to elect Berlusconi - but I doubt any would get the trasversal support that is needed to win.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 19, 2021, 06:53:54 PM
Since Italian law - in what I realize tends to appear very silly to foreigners - prohibits to publish electoral polls less than a fortnight before an election, we will not have any more of them for this year's local elections, so I think it is time for a final update on that.

First now that I have covered all the big cities I'd like to talk a bit about those in the following tier by size (all over 100,000 people).
In Salerno incumbent PD mayor Vincenzo Napoli - a close ally of his predecessor and current regional president Vincenzo De Luca - was elected in an epic landslide of 70% in the first round five years ago and looks poised to win re-election very easily against both the centre-right and the Five Stars.
In Ravenna incumbent PD mayor Michele De Pascale was elected narrowly in 2016 but this year is running with the support of M5S and against a divided right, so I consider him a strong favourite even with a lack of public polls (the city is also quite historically leftist - although most notable for having been a PRI stronghold).
In nearby Rimini the PD incumbent is term-limited; the centre-left candidate and member of the current administration Jamil Sadegholvaad, notable for being half Iranian, should have the upper hand against the centre-right candidate and the M5S one.
In Latina incumbent Damiano Coletta was elected in 2016 as an independent in strange circumstances - got into a runoff with a hard-right candidate as both of them narrowly edged the PD one while a more moderate rightist for FI got a distant fourth, scooped up literally all the vote that was up for grabs in the second round and won with an unbelievable 75% - even stranger since Latina is historically a very rightist city (including sizable fascist sympathies). This time Coletta is running with the support of the Democratic Party, but against a unified centre-right again and with M5S and Azione/+E running separately - just like in Rome hilariously - his reelection is far from certain.

About the elections I had already talked about the last polls did not show nothing new for the most part, except that Sala has developed a much stronger lead and a Gaultieri-Michetti Rome runoff is ever more likely. I also suspect that there will be many recriminations in the centre-left about De Magistris splitting the vote in Calabria, because Occhiuto winning with a plurality while both of the other major candidates take solid chunks is more than probable.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 03, 2021, 05:43:13 AM
Today is Election Day! Well, the first of the two election days. I am sure I already mentioned this somewhere but either way it's useful to repeat - the polls are open from 7 to 23 today and from 7 to 15 tomorrow.

The turnout is reported to be 13.7% at noon, which seems a bit weak but nothing too bad. Obviously don't expect reports on much of anything else today, but results should come out fairly quickly in the afternoon and evening tomorrow - although most of the important races will likely be decided in the runoff two weeks from now.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Estrella on October 03, 2021, 06:19:13 PM
I have a historical question unrelated to this election: what causes the differences between some parties' results in the Chamber and the Senate? I know that there's a higher voting age for the latter, but I'm not sure if that explains it. It's especially interesting during the First Republic - today it could be due to personalities or whatever, but I wonder what was behind it in the old rigid party system.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 04, 2021, 03:05:27 AM
I have a historical question unrelated to this election: what causes the differences between some parties' results in the Chamber and the Senate? I know that there's a higher voting age for the latter, but I'm not sure if that explains it. It's especially interesting during the First Republic - today it could be due to personalities or whatever, but I wonder what was behind it in the old rigid party system.

During the First Republic the voting system in the Senate was on a theoretical level based on single-member constituencies (approximately two hundreds of then if I recall correctly) with a proportional retrieve of the losers to make up the rest, although the threshold to be elected with the former system was an all but impossible 65% and so in practice it was fully proportional. Still, this meant that there tended to be fewer parties running, that it was easier to find parties forming lists together, and presumably that there was more personal vote. This should be the most significant difference together with the different voting age and randomness.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 04, 2021, 03:23:31 AM
In other news, turnout at 23 at the end of yesterday was 41.7% which is again weak, although the facile comparison to the much higher one in 2016 - that is the last time most of these municipalities had had local elections - is flawed given that there was only one voting day that year.

Interestingly turnout is lower than average in the big cities - and also much lower in the Calabria regional, but that's par for the course with the middling numbers of 2020 and 2014.

Speaking of which I somehow had completely missed that former regional president Mario Oliverio made a last-minute entrance in the race and is the fourth and last candidate. I doubt he is getting much support but I have to wonder why the Calabrian centre-left is so keen on vote splitting and self-sabotaging.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 04, 2021, 05:17:41 AM
Speaking of which I somehow had completely missed that former regional president Mario Oliverio made a last-minute entrance in the race and is the fourth and last candidate. I doubt he is getting much support but I have to wonder why the Calabrian centre-left is so keen on vote splitting and self-sabotaging.

The center-left is a joke political bloc, and Calabria is a joke region, so that means the Calabrian center-left is a joke squared.

Anyway, God I hope turnout is robust today. It'd be truly pitiful if we couldn't even break 50%.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 04, 2021, 05:20:20 AM
Speaking of which I somehow had completely missed that former regional president Mario Oliverio made a last-minute entrance in the race and is the fourth and last candidate. I doubt he is getting much support but I have to wonder why the Calabrian centre-left is so keen on vote splitting and self-sabotaging.

The center-left is a joke political bloc, and Calabria is a joke region, so that means the Calabrian center-left is a joke squared.

Anyway, God I hope turnout is robust today. It'd be truly pitiful if we couldn't even break 50%.

I mean Mario Oliverio won with 61% of the vote in 2014 so this sounds a bit excessive. Although we all know that 2014 was almost literally worlds apart from today. Thanks, Renzi!


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 04, 2021, 05:23:04 AM
Speaking of which I somehow had completely missed that former regional president Mario Oliverio made a last-minute entrance in the race and is the fourth and last candidate. I doubt he is getting much support but I have to wonder why the Calabrian centre-left is so keen on vote splitting and self-sabotaging.

The center-left is a joke political bloc, and Calabria is a joke region, so that means the Calabrian center-left is a joke squared.

Anyway, God I hope turnout is robust today. It'd be truly pitiful if we couldn't even break 50%.

I mean Mario Oliverio won with 61% of the vote in 2014 so this sounds a bit excessive. Although we all know that 2014 was almost literally worlds apart from today. Thanks, Renzi!

I'm not saying the Calabrian center-left can't win. This is Italy, being a joke and winning elections are far from mutually exclusive. :P


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 04, 2021, 05:26:04 AM
Speaking of which I somehow had completely missed that former regional president Mario Oliverio made a last-minute entrance in the race and is the fourth and last candidate. I doubt he is getting much support but I have to wonder why the Calabrian centre-left is so keen on vote splitting and self-sabotaging.

The center-left is a joke political bloc, and Calabria is a joke region, so that means the Calabrian center-left is a joke squared.

Anyway, God I hope turnout is robust today. It'd be truly pitiful if we couldn't even break 50%.

I mean Mario Oliverio won with 61% of the vote in 2014 so this sounds a bit excessive. Although we all know that 2014 was almost literally worlds apart from today. Thanks, Renzi!

I'm not saying the Calabrian center-left can't win. This is Italy, being a joke and winning elections are far from mutually exclusive. :P

I'll bite the bullet then: in Italy being a joke is a pre-requisite to win elections. :P


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 04, 2021, 08:09:57 AM
The polls have closed and we have the first projections.

Left-wing candidates are on track to win outright in Bologna, Milan, and Naples (not sure if anyone was expecting that!). Torino and Rome will have classic left vs right runoffs (with the left-wing candidate ahead in Torino, and the right-wing one ahead in Rome but most of the outstanding votes are left-leaning). In Calabria the right is winning easily, and De Magistris is doing almost as well as Bruni.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 04, 2021, 08:50:02 AM
Runoff in Trieste too, this one with the right-wing incumbent pretty favored though (he's in the mid-40s with the left-winger in the mid-30s).


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 04, 2021, 09:24:13 AM
OK so the projections are changing a lot. No idea what to make of it, but the newest SWG projection has Gualtieri and Raggi tied for second in Rome. The left's margin of victory has also come down a bit in Bologna, while the right is doing much better in Calabria.

It's starting to look like the exit polls were seriously off.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Andrea on October 04, 2021, 09:26:39 AM
It's starting to look like the exit polls were seriously off.

Where is the news? :-)
 
The early projections for Rome are different between La7 and Mediaset at the moment. Mediaset have Michetti 29 Gualtieri 26 Raggi 20


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: jeron on October 04, 2021, 09:37:07 AM
The polls have closed and we have the first projections.

Left-wing candidates are on track to win outright in Bologna, Milan, and Naples (not sure if anyone was expecting that!).

Naples has had a leftist mayor for more than 40 years and the leftist parties rallied around Manfredi, so it is probably not that much of a surprise


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 04, 2021, 10:18:02 AM
The polls have closed and we have the first projections.

Left-wing candidates are on track to win outright in Bologna, Milan, and Naples (not sure if anyone was expecting that!).

Naples has had a leftist mayor for more than 40 years and the leftist parties rallied around Manfredi, so it is probably not that much of a surprise

True, and apparently the polls did show it was a possibility. I guess I was assuming a bit of reversion to the mean from Naples, since it's not really left-wing at the national level. But the PD-M5S union worked wonders there.

Anyway, Rome is... weird. All the projections now have Gualtieri ahead of Raggi (24% to 21% in the SWG one now), but still quite an underperformance given how strong the left is everywhere else.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Andrea on October 04, 2021, 10:20:04 AM
191 polling stations out of 292

Siena parliamentary by-election

Letta 49.34%
Centre-right 39.36%


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 04, 2021, 10:23:02 AM
191 polling stations out of 192

Siena parliamentary by-election

Letta 49.34%
Centre-right 39.36%

That doesn't seem like a great result, honestly.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Andrea on October 04, 2021, 10:24:25 AM
I had a typo. it is 191 out of 292 polling stations for Siena by-election.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 04, 2021, 10:38:02 AM
Anyway, Rome is... weird. All the projections now have Gualtieri ahead of Raggi (24% to 21% in the SWG one now), but still quite an underperformance given how strong the left is everywhere else.

Well if you consider for one Calenda's presence and his likely strong appeal to the kind of rich educated demographic that has trended left recently, secondly that an incumbent M5S candidate in a place like Rome is bound to do better than a non-incumbent one somewhere up North like Turin or Milan, it was never surprising that Gualtieri's absolute result would be comparatively weak. Although I can concede he appears to be doing somewhat worse than expected.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 04, 2021, 11:47:59 AM
Anyway, Rome is... weird. All the projections now have Gualtieri ahead of Raggi (24% to 21% in the SWG one now), but still quite an underperformance given how strong the left is everywhere else.

Well if you consider for one Calenda's presence and his likely strong appeal to the kind of rich educated demographic that has trended left recently, secondly that an incumbent M5S candidate in a place like Rome is bound to do better than a non-incumbent one somewhere up North like Turin or Milan, it was never surprising that Gualtieri's absolute result would be comparatively weak. Although I can concede he appears to be doing somewhat worse than expected.

Yeah, it makes sense, but still disappointing.

I have to hope Gualtieri is still favored in the runoff, though. He should get a clear majority of Raggi voters and hopefully most Calenda voters as well.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 04, 2021, 11:56:31 AM
New SWG projection has Michetti at 31%, Gualtieri 26%, Raggi 20%. Starting to look somewhere halfway between the exit polls and the early SWG projection. Here's hoping the gap narrows a little more in the next updates.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Andrea on October 04, 2021, 01:13:28 PM
Tuscany #12 (Siena and some bits of Arezzo province) parliamentary by-election

Final result

Enrico Letta 49.92%
Lega+Brothers of Italia+Forza Italia - UDC 37.83%
Communist Party (fielding former MP and former MEP Marco Rizzo) 4.69%
Power to the People 2.95%
National Italian Movement 1.48%
Italexit 1.73%
3V (No Vax) 1.4%

Turnout 35.6%


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Andrea on October 04, 2021, 02:02:07 PM
The good people of Morterone have spoken

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/comunali/scrutini/20211003/scrutiniGI030980550

3 Cllrs for the Gay Party after polling 42% (which means 9 votes).

None of the elected Cllrs (of both lists) live there. The winning list was apparently registered some minutes after the actual deadline because "the electoral office was in Ballabio and it takes some time to reach it as it was not advertised that the clarks at Morterone would have not accepted the nominations there".

A legal challenge will follow.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Mike88 on October 04, 2021, 06:54:36 PM
Why is the counting so slow in Rome? (And here I was, a week ago, criticizing Lisbon for the slow vote count ::) )

Also, turnout seems really, really low, compared with the 57% in 2016.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 05, 2021, 03:11:25 AM
Rome has been... a wild ride. In the end it appears that Raggi has slipped in fourth (!) even narrowly surpassed by Calenda - whose only list is the most voted one, pulling ahead of both PD and FdI. Either way Michetti and Gualtieri will go to a runoff. Also the centre-left candidate Andrea Casu won in the by-election in the Lazio 1 - 11 (Primavalle) seat. What I find particularly hilarious is that his margin of victory over the centre-right candidate appears to be almost identical (around 5.9%) to the vote share taken by our old friend Luca Palamara.

It confirmed my presumptions in that it showed a centre-left vote distribution that is less strongly centralized and gentrified than in 2018/2019 thanks mostly to Calenda stealing votes of ~rich liberals~ (watch out for Municipio II).

LOL Calenda won Municipio II outright.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 05, 2021, 05:23:02 AM
In the end, the first SWG projection was wildly off the mark. Gualtieri is only 3 points behind Michetti, and a whopping 8 points ahead of Raggi (who, as Battista mentioned, came in fourth). It's pretty ridiculous when the notoriously-awful exit polls come closer to the final result than the supposedly more accurate projections.

Battista has provided me with Municipio-level data, and I'd be happy to make a few maps out of it if someone can provide me with a Paint-friendly base map. Some of the patterns here are pretty hilarious.

In other major cities, the left won outright in Milan (57.73%), Bologna (61.9%) and Naples (62.9%). Those are landslide margins that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago, and Naples in particular was a stellar proof of concept for what a PD-M5S alliance can achieve.

The left-wing candidate is also in a surprisingly strong position in Turin, having won 43.86% against 38.9% for the right-wing candidate who was seen as the favorite. The other main contenders were the M5S (9.01%) and the lefty list (2.53%). Those should theoretically favor the left as well, although there is a lot of bad blood between PD and M5S in the city, and with low turnout anything can happen, so I wouldn't could this out yet. In Trieste meanwhile, there will be a runoff as well but the right-wing incumbent is clearly favored (also and anti-Vax list got 5% there lol, joke city).


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 05, 2021, 06:22:34 AM
I would also like to mention one very famous mayor who is running for re-election this year, even if his city is not particularly significant beyond being a provincial seat: Benevento's Clemente Mastella, a household name from the Berlusconi era notable for starting a load of "centrist" parties, shifting alliances as he pleased, managing to be a minister both under Berlusconi and under Prodi, causing the downfall of the Prodi II government. A true inland Appenninic Campanian original - I assume he will be easily re-elected.

Shockingly, he has been forced into a runoff, winning only 49.33%. His main opponent seems to be a PD-backed candidate with 32.34%. I assume he'll still win easily.

Also, in Salerno, De Luca's handpicked successor Vincenzo Napoli won with "only" 57.4%, quite a drop from the 70.5% he won last time. His main opposition will be M5S-led.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: FrancoAgo on October 05, 2021, 06:44:24 AM
Mayor Election results, regional capitol

Bologna:
Center-left+M5S 61.9%, elected
Right 29.6%
Power to the People 2.5%
An other five candidates  6%

Milano
Center-left 57.7%, elected
Right 32%
Italexit 3%
M5S 2.7%
An other nine candidates 5.6%

Napoli
Center-left+M5S 62.9%, elected
Right 21.9%
Dissident center-left 8.2%
Left 5.6%
An other three candidates 1.4%

Roma
Right 30.1%, to run-off
Center-left 27%, to run-off
Dissident center-left 19.8%
M5S 19.1%
An other sixteen candidates 4%

Torino
Center-left 43.9%, to run-off
Right 38.9%, to run-off
M5S 9%
Left 2.5%
An other nine candidates 5.7%

Trieste
Right 46.9%,to run-off
Center-left 31.6% to run-off
Local list 8.6% (look like a left leaning candidate)
Anti-Vax 4.5%
M5S 3.4%
An other five candidates 5%

p.s. i corrected the Trieste local list from center-left leaning to left leaning



Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Conservatopia on October 05, 2021, 12:33:17 PM
Green shoots of recovery for the Italian left or too early to tell?


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 05, 2021, 12:49:52 PM
I would also like to mention one very famous mayor who is running for re-election this year, even if his city is not particularly significant beyond being a provincial seat: Benevento's Clemente Mastella, a household name from the Berlusconi era notable for starting a load of "centrist" parties, shifting alliances as he pleased, managing to be a minister both under Berlusconi and under Prodi, causing the downfall of the Prodi II government. A true inland Appenninic Campanian original - I assume he will be easily re-elected.

Shockingly, he has been forced into a runoff, winning only 49.33%. His main opponent seems to be a PD-backed candidate with 32.34%. I assume he'll still win easily.

Also, in Salerno, De Luca's handpicked successor Vincenzo Napoli won with "only" 57.4%, quite a drop from the 70.5% he won last time. His main opposition will be M5S-led.

Thanks. To close in with the other cities I had talked about, De Pascale (PD) was re-elected in Ravenna, Sadegholvaad (PD) was elected in Rimini, while in Latina incumbent Coletta will go to a runoff with the centre-right candidate Vincenzo Zaccheo.

Among other interesting results, Davide Galimberti, the first directly elected centre-left mayor of Varese, has been forced to a runoff but has the upper hand. Galimberti succeeded Attilio Fontana in this office and, well, I wonder if he'll try to succeed Fontana as President of Lombardy too.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 05, 2021, 01:02:59 PM
Green shoots of recovery for the Italian left or too early to tell?

I'd put this at too early to tell, although this was a pretty rosy result - if anything because I want to wait for the Rome runoff's result. On the other hand I don't think it is too early to say that this was a concrete confirmation of Lega's substantial slippage in favour of Fratelli d'Italia and a disappointing moment for Salvini more than anyone else.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 06, 2021, 02:34:49 AM
Green shoots of recovery for the Italian left or too early to tell?

I'd put this at too early to tell, although this was a pretty rosy result - if anything because I want to wait for the Rome runoff's result. On the other hand I don't think it is too early to say that this was a concrete confirmation of Lega's substantial slippage in favour of Fratelli d'Italia and a disappointing moment for Salvini more than anyone else.

Yeah, a lot has to do with specific local issues or candidates, but at least (and especially if Rome and Turin go left as well) this election has proved that the right is not quite the unbeatable juggernaut I thought it was. It's still not going to be easy to beat at the national level, for a whole host of reasons, but now there's a somewhat plausible path to it if PD and M5S can form a proper alliance.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 10/03-04 (first round), 10/17-18 (runoff)
Post by: FrancoAgo on October 06, 2021, 10:56:06 AM
Mayoral elections, municipality over 100k inhab., non regional capitol

Latina
Right 48.3%, to run-off
Center-Left 35.7%, to run-off
Local list 5.1% (i suspect this is right leaning)
Far Right 3.3%
M5S 3.3%
Center-left dissident 3.2%
An other three candidates 1.1%

Novara
Right 69.6%, elected
Center-Left 20.5%
M5S 6.4%
Center-Left dissident 2.6%
an other candidate 0.9%

Ravenna
Center-Left+M5S 59.5%, elected
Right 22.5%
Local list 5% (centrist)
Italexit 3.9%
Forza Italia 3.3%
Antivax 2.9%
an other five candidates 2.9%

Rimini
Center-Left 51.3%, elected
Right 32.9%
M5S 8.9%
Antivax 4.1%
an other two candidates 2.8%

Salerno
Center-Left 57.4%, elected
M5S 16.8%
Right 16%
Local list 3.5% (right leaning)
an other five candidates 6.3%


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: NewYorkExpress on October 08, 2021, 01:54:12 PM
Interestingly, Benitio Mussolini's grandaughter won the most votes in the City Council elections in Rome. (https://thehill.com/policy/international/575808-mussolinis-granddaughter-wins-most-votes-in-rome-city-council-elections)

Quote
The granddaughter of former Italian Dictator Benito Mussolini has won a second term as city councillor in Rome, reportedly bringing in more votes than any other candidate.

Rachelle Mussolini belongs to the far-right political party Brothers of Italy, which has roots in postwar neofascism and, after formerly being somewhat of a fringe party, is rising in popularity.

This year, Mussolini racked in 8,200 votes, compared to only 657 in 2016. Support for Brothers of Italy has gone up, even in the left-leaning northern part of the country.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 08, 2021, 04:05:31 PM
Interestingly, Benitio Mussolini won the most votes in the City Council elections in Rome. (https://thehill.com/policy/international/575808-mussolinis-granddaughter-wins-most-votes-in-rome-city-council-elections)

Quote
The granddaughter of former Italian Dictator Benito Mussolini has won a second term as city councillor in Rome, reportedly bringing in more votes than any other candidate.

Rachelle Mussolini belongs to the far-right political party Brothers of Italy, which has roots in postwar neofascism and, after formerly being somewhat of a fringe party, is rising in popularity.

This year, Mussolini racked in 8,200 votes, compared to only 657 in 2016. Support for Brothers of Italy has gone up, even in the left-leaning northern part of the country.

A perfect example of what is mentioned above: that the polls are right in that Lega no longer monopolizes the Right. FdI on the rise, and likely more in the south and centre rather than the north.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 08, 2021, 04:21:17 PM
Interestingly, Benitio Mussolini won the most votes in the City Council elections in Rome. (https://thehill.com/policy/international/575808-mussolinis-granddaughter-wins-most-votes-in-rome-city-council-elections)

Quote
The granddaughter of former Italian Dictator Benito Mussolini has won a second term as city councillor in Rome, reportedly bringing in more votes than any other candidate.

Rachelle Mussolini belongs to the far-right political party Brothers of Italy, which has roots in postwar neofascism and, after formerly being somewhat of a fringe party, is rising in popularity.

This year, Mussolini racked in 8,200 votes, compared to only 657 in 2016. Support for Brothers of Italy has gone up, even in the left-leaning northern part of the country.

A perfect example of what is mentioned above: that the polls are right in that Lega no longer monopolizes the Right. FdI on the rise, and likely more in the south and centre rather than the north.

I mean, assorted creeps and loons topping the individual preference vote is not rare at all in Italy, and it's not super meaningful per se. The list vote is far more indicative (and yes, it shows FdI as the most voted party in the Michetti coalition, which was to be expected).


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 08, 2021, 04:34:05 PM
Interestingly, Benitio Mussolini won the most votes in the City Council elections in Rome. (https://thehill.com/policy/international/575808-mussolinis-granddaughter-wins-most-votes-in-rome-city-council-elections)

Quote
The granddaughter of former Italian Dictator Benito Mussolini has won a second term as city councillor in Rome, reportedly bringing in more votes than any other candidate.

Rachelle Mussolini belongs to the far-right political party Brothers of Italy, which has roots in postwar neofascism and, after formerly being somewhat of a fringe party, is rising in popularity.

This year, Mussolini racked in 8,200 votes, compared to only 657 in 2016. Support for Brothers of Italy has gone up, even in the left-leaning northern part of the country.

A perfect example of what is mentioned above: that the polls are right in that Lega no longer monopolizes the Right. FdI on the rise, and likely more in the south and centre rather than the north.

I mean, assorted creeps and loons topping the individual preference vote is not rare at all in Italy, and it's not super meaningful per se. The list vote is far more indicative (and yes, it shows FdI as the most voted party in the Michetti coalition, which was to be expected).

I mean this detail is not even particularly interesting for curiosity - we already had another granddaughter of Benito in national politics for over two decades with Alessandra Mussolini.

On the other hand I noticed that the article linked to said "even in the left-leaning northern part of the country" and I want to point out this because it is such obvious bullsh**t. Just because FdI and its predecessor political traditions are weaker in the North it doesn't mean the North is left-leaning. Ah yes, the famed leftist strongholds of checks notes Veneto, eastern and northern Lombardy, southern Piedmont... give me a break.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 10, 2021, 07:44:10 AM
Yesterday a protest against the COVID green pass in Rome was taken over by Forza Nuova (small unironically neofascist party) gangs who assaulted the police and most notably vandalized the main building of CGIL, the more historically leftist of the three big labour unions in Italy. Perhaps even worse, in a separate incident a man showed himself at a hospital after being wounded in the clashes with the police, but then proceeded to assault the emergency room together with a significant group of other rioters.

The strongest reaction comes from Emanuele Fiano, PD Deputy (who incidentally is Jewish and as far as I know the only Jewish member of the Chamber), who has announced he will propose in Parliament to dissolve Forza Nuova and similar groups.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: NewYorkExpress on October 12, 2021, 10:34:27 PM
The frontrunner in the race for Mayor of Rome, Enrico Michetti, has been forced to apologize for comments on the Holocaust that some have deemed Anti-Semitic.  (https://www.timesofisrael.com/candidate-for-rome-mayor-apologizes-for-holocaust-remarks-decried-as-antisemitic/)

Quote
A leading candidate for mayor in Rome has apologized to Italy’s Jewish community over an article he wrote last year in which he suggested that victims of mass murders other than the Holocaust gain less attention because they “didn’t own banks.”

Jewish community leaders and others had decried the comments by Enrico Michetti, a radio host who is the center-right coalition’s candidate in the October 17 and 18 mayoral election. He received more than 30 percent of votes in the election’s first round earlier this month, more than any other candidate.

“Each year, 40 Holocaust-related movies are shot, trips and cultural initiatives of all sorts are financed to commemorate that horrible persecution, and up to here, I have nothing to say,” Michetti wrote at the time on the website of the radio station where he is a host. “But I wonder, why the same pity and the same consideration are not given to the dead killed in the foibe massacres [of Italians by Yugoslav Partisans], in the refugee camps, and in the mass murders that still take place in the world?”



Among the answers he offered: “Perhaps because they did not own banks, perhaps because they did not belong to lobbies capable of deciding the destinies of the planet.”


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 13, 2021, 07:18:20 AM
There's still a lot of it about, unfortunately.....


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 13, 2021, 08:18:54 AM
It's so deeply embedded in the cultures of most societies that you have to despair, you really do. But these remarks are even worse than 'usual' - they ought to be instantly career-ending.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Flyersfan232 on October 13, 2021, 09:25:29 AM
Interestingly, Benitio Mussolini won the most votes in the City Council elections in Rome. (https://thehill.com/policy/international/575808-mussolinis-granddaughter-wins-most-votes-in-rome-city-council-elections)

Quote
The granddaughter of former Italian Dictator Benito Mussolini has won a second term as city councillor in Rome, reportedly bringing in more votes than any other candidate.

Rachelle Mussolini belongs to the far-right political party Brothers of Italy, which has roots in postwar neofascism and, after formerly being somewhat of a fringe party, is rising in popularity.

This year, Mussolini racked in 8,200 votes, compared to only 657 in 2016. Support for Brothers of Italy has gone up, even in the left-leaning northern part of the country.

A perfect example of what is mentioned above: that the polls are right in that Lega no longer monopolizes the Right. FdI on the rise, and likely more in the south and centre rather than the north.
could lega still end up with more seat in the next election base on geography?


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 13, 2021, 04:04:05 PM
Interestingly, Benitio Mussolini won the most votes in the City Council elections in Rome. (https://thehill.com/policy/international/575808-mussolinis-granddaughter-wins-most-votes-in-rome-city-council-elections)

Quote
The granddaughter of former Italian Dictator Benito Mussolini has won a second term as city councillor in Rome, reportedly bringing in more votes than any other candidate.

Rachelle Mussolini belongs to the far-right political party Brothers of Italy, which has roots in postwar neofascism and, after formerly being somewhat of a fringe party, is rising in popularity.

This year, Mussolini racked in 8,200 votes, compared to only 657 in 2016. Support for Brothers of Italy has gone up, even in the left-leaning northern part of the country.

A perfect example of what is mentioned above: that the polls are right in that Lega no longer monopolizes the Right. FdI on the rise, and likely more in the south and centre rather than the north.
could lega still end up with more seat in the next election base on geography?

While taking fewer votes than FdI? Perhaps, it also depends on candidate selection within the right-wing coalition. But only if the two parties come reasonably close.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: MRCVzla on October 17, 2021, 04:20:35 AM
Runoffs or "ballotaggio" are happening between today and tomorrow Monday, meanwhile last week some first-round local elections was hold in the autonomous regions, as the possible ban of radical-neofascists parties is discussed, but one thing happened under the table, an express constitutional reform has come into force on the reduction of the voting age in the Senate in which young people between 18-25 years old will also be able to vote in elections for the Upper House.

In fact, it was in force since the parliament approved the reform in July but until now, no one had requested that a confirmatory referendum be held as happened last year when the reduction in the number of parliamentarians was approved, once the 3-month term has expired to request, the reform has already been validated.


Quote
Yesterday the deadline to ask for a confirmatory referendum on the constitutional reform that raises the minimum age to vote for the Senate from 25 to 18 years old.
The reform is now officially in force: from the next general election the two Chambers will thus have the same electoral base.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 17, 2021, 05:22:54 AM
I've been disenfranchised twice because of this stupid age restriction (I was a few days short of 25 when the 2018 election happened) and this comes just too late for me, but glad to see this injustice corrected.

On the other hand, this makes Italian bicameralism even more useless than it already was...


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 17, 2021, 08:30:04 AM
Turnout at noon was 9.73%, down from 12.18% in the first round. This doesn't bode well...


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 17, 2021, 09:25:13 AM
Turnout at noon was 9.73%, down from 12.18% in the first round. This doesn't bode well...

Turnout is always lower in runoffs. This is perhaps unfortunate, but there is no reason to fret now.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 17, 2021, 01:34:04 PM
Turnout in at 7pm:
- Rome: 25.28% (-4.22 from the first round)
- Turin: 25% (-4.29)
- All cities: 26.71% (-4.94)


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 17, 2021, 02:53:56 PM
In a bit of local news intersecting with national policy, I just learnt that the power plant in my city of La Spezia, once one of the biggest coal plants in Europe, should finally stop using coal at the very end of this year - sooner than previous plans and even sooner than what is set to be the national deadline of 2025. It may or may not continue as a natural gas plant, and hopefully it will be later on converted into one using renewable energies (solar?).


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 17, 2021, 05:22:21 PM
Turnout in at 7pm:
- Rome: 25.28% (-4.22 from the first round)
- Turin: 25% (-4.29)
- All cities: 26.71% (-4.94)

11pm:

Rome: 30.87% (-5.95)
Turin: 32.61% (-3.89)

All cities: 33.33% (-6.53)

Massive overanalysis alert, but the turnout dropoff seems to have recovered somewhat in Turin, but only gotten worse in Rome and most of the rest of Italy. Don't know if that means anything, but that might matter if it continues.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Andrea on October 18, 2021, 08:04:00 AM
Exit polls for Rai


Rome

Gualtieri (centre-left) 59-63%
Michetti (centre-right) 37-41%

Turin
Lo Russo (centre-left) 56-60%
Damilano (centre-right) 40-44%



Trieste

Dipiazza (centre-right) 48-52%
Russo (centre-left) 48-52%


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 18, 2021, 08:06:06 AM
Polls have just closed, and SWG apparently feels comfortable calling Rome for Gualtieri. They've also all-but-called Turin for Lo Russo, and Trieste is apparently the one major city that's most uncertain (despite the right-wing incumbent having a huge advantage in the first round). Same projections from RAI.

Still early, and projections have had an egg on their face before, but if so that is a complete victory for the left.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Andrea on October 18, 2021, 08:33:01 AM
250 polling stations out of 919 in Turin reported

Lo Russo is at 59%

http://www.comune.torino.it



Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 18, 2021, 08:38:32 AM
250 polling stations out of 919 in Turin reported

Lo Russo is at 59%

http://www.comune.torino.it

Huh, this is going fast this time. Good to know.

SWG now is projecting both Gualtieri and Lo Russo to win 57-59%. I guess we'll have a little derby to see who wins by more. :P


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Andrea on October 18, 2021, 08:49:40 AM
Counting half way in Varese (42 polling stations out of 85)

PD incumbent Galimberti leading 53 to 47%


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Andrea on October 18, 2021, 09:01:18 AM
Projection for Trieste indicates Dipiazza will hold on 51 to 49%.

Varese looks like a PD hold. 61 out of 82 reported and it is 53.4% for Galimberti.

Cosenza and Spezia looks like centre-left wins after over 1/3 counted.

Mastella towards re-election in Benevento.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 18, 2021, 09:05:32 AM
250 polling stations out of 919 in Turin reported

Lo Russo is at 59%

http://www.comune.torino.it

Huh, this is going fast this time. Good to know.

SWG now is projecting both Gualtieri and Lo Russo to win 57-59%. I guess we'll have a little derby to see who wins by more. :P

Looks like Gualtieri is winning the derby right now, at least according to SWG. Latest projections have him at 59.8% vs 58.6% for Lo Russo.

Meanwhile, no projection for Trieste yet, but unofficial sources from the left side have their candidate Russo (no relation) at 48%.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 18, 2021, 09:12:34 AM
Gualtieri speaks already.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Andrea on October 18, 2021, 09:19:29 AM
I meant Savona, not Spezia in my earlier post.

Anyway, Savona and Cosenza to centre-left. Currently polling 62% and 58% with 2/3 of the count completed.

Caserta looks very close half-way.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 18, 2021, 09:24:09 AM
We have final turnout figures for Rome: 40.68% (-7.86). Could've been worse, at least both Gualtieri and Michetti probably increased their raw vote count from the first round (you'd think that always happens, but there are famous examples when it didn't). Still absolutely pathetic though. Gualtieri will be the mayor of about a quarter of the voters.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 18, 2021, 09:39:58 AM
And for Turin: 42.14% (-5.94). This time the right-wing candidate Damilano might actually have won fewer votes than in the first round. The runoff system is really broken.

Among all the cities with runoffs, turnout was 43.94% (-8.73).


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Andrea on October 18, 2021, 09:40:11 AM
Cosenza have finished counting


Francesco Caruso (centre-left) 57,81
Francesco Caruso (centre-right) 42,19   

Yes, they have the same name.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Andrea on October 18, 2021, 09:42:22 AM
Savona finished

Marco Russo (centre-left) 62,25%
Angelo Schirru (centre-right) 37,75   

CL gain


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 18, 2021, 09:49:51 AM
Cosenza have finished counting


Francesco Caruso (centre-left) 57,81
Francesco Caruso (centre-right) 42,19   

Yes, they have the same name.

hahahahahaha, amazing


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 18, 2021, 09:53:07 AM
Seems like Dipiazza has won in Trieste. Shame, it would have been quite a coup for the left to take the city (especially since it's been such a center of anti-vaccine passport agitation in the past few days).


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Andrea on October 18, 2021, 09:53:09 AM
Damiano Coletta set to be re-elected in Latina.
He is at 54.5% with 100/116 reported.

CR candidate was at 48% in R1. Coletta go 35% (with both PD and M5S already in).


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Andrea on October 18, 2021, 10:28:46 AM
Turin final

Lo Russo 59.23%
Damilano 40.77%

Caserta and Isernia won by centre-left.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 18, 2021, 10:43:57 AM
Whoa, I had the centre-left favoured in both Rome and Turin but I would not have expected such landslides for Gualtieri and Lo Russo. Almost 60% for both! Now the centre-left will control the mayoralty in all of the six largest Italian cities (the ones over 500k people) except for Genoa, which is mildly ironic as Genoa is the most historically leftist one.

Aside from Trieste it seems that the only other mayoral runoff in a provincial seat that the centre-left lost was Benevento, home of our old friend Clemente Mastella. Of course, knowing him, he might as well switch to the "centre-left" again one of these days too...


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Andrea on October 18, 2021, 10:48:14 AM
Trieste final

Dipiazza (CR) 51.3%
Russo (CL) 48.7%

CR hold

Isernia final

Pietro Castrataro  (CL) 58,72
Gabriele Melogli  (CR) 41.28

CL gain

Benevento final

Clemente Mastella (CR) 52,68
Luigi Parafano (CL) 47,32

Mastella hold


Varese final

Davide Galimberti (CL) 53.20%
Matteo Bianchi (CR) 46.8%

CL hold. Used to be a Lega stronghold until 2016.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 18, 2021, 10:49:25 AM
Whoa, I had the centre-left favoured in both Rome and Turin but I would not have expected such landslides for Gualtieri and Lo Russo. Almost 60% for both! Now the centre-left will control the mayoralty in all of the six largest Italian cities (the ones over 500k people) except for Genoa, which is mildly ironic as Genoa is the most historically leftist one.

Aside from Trieste it seems that the only other mayoral runoff in a provincial seat that the centre-left lost was Benevento, home of our old friend Clemente Mastella. Of course, knowing him, he might as well switch to the "centre-left" again one of these days too...

In his victory interview with La7 he had some choice words for Letta and started talking up about "building a great center" with Renzi and Calenda, so I wouldn't count on him being particularly helpful for the left.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Alcibiades on October 18, 2021, 11:12:58 AM
Nice to see some results that put at least a small dent in the narrative of hegemonic right-wing ascendancy. Maybe I should always go to Italy when there’s an election on - clearly my presence here has powered the centre-left to victory! :P


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 18, 2021, 12:11:48 PM
Whoa, I had the centre-left favoured in both Rome and Turin but I would not have expected such landslides for Gualtieri and Lo Russo. Almost 60% for both! Now the centre-left will control the mayoralty in all of the six largest Italian cities (the ones over 500k people) except for Genoa, which is mildly ironic as Genoa is the most historically leftist one.

Aside from Trieste it seems that the only other mayoral runoff in a provincial seat that the centre-left lost was Benevento, home of our old friend Clemente Mastella. Of course, knowing him, he might as well switch to the "centre-left" again one of these days too...

In his victory interview with La7 he had some choice words for Letta and started talking up about "building a great center" with Renzi and Calenda, so I wouldn't count on him being particularly helpful for the left.

Oh, of course he wants to build "a great centre"... he probably would like to bring back the Democrazia Cristiana if he could.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: FrancoAgo on October 18, 2021, 04:21:55 PM
result municipality over 50k inhabitants

Bologna: CL Hold
Center-left+M5S 61.9%, elected
Right 29.6%
Power to the People 2.5%
An other five candidates  6%

Milano: CL Hold
Center-left 57.7%, elected
Right 32%
Italexit 3%
M5S 2.7%
An other nine candidates 5.6%

Napoli: CL gain from Left
Center-left+M5S 62.9%, elected
Right 21.9%
Dissident center-left 8.2%
Left 5.6%
An other three candidates 1.4%

Roma: CL gain from M5S
Right 30.1%, to run-off 39.9%
Center-left 27%, to run-off 60.1%
Dissident center-left 19.8%
M5S 19.1%
An other sixteen candidates 4%

Torino: CL gain from M5S
Center-left 43.9%, to run-off 59.2%
Right 38.9%, to run-off 40.8%
M5S 9%
Left 2.5%
An other nine candidates 5.7%

Trieste: R hold
Right 46.9%,to run-off 51.3%
Center-left 31.6% to run-off 48.7%
Local list 8.6% (look like a left leaning candidate)
Anti-Vax 4.5%
M5S 3.4%
An other five candidates 5%

Latina: CL Hold
Right 48.3%, to run-off 45.1%
Center-Left 35.7%, to run-off 54.9%
Local list 5.1% (i suspect this is right leaning)
Far Right 3.3%
M5S 3.3%
Center-left dissident 3.2%
An other three candidates 1.1%

Novara: R Hold
Right 69.6%, elected
Center-Left 20.5%
M5S 6.4%
Center-Left dissident 2.6%
an other candidate 0.9%

Ravenna: CL Hold
Center-Left+M5S 59.5%, elected
Right 22.5%
Local list 5% (centrist)
Italexit 3.9%
Forza Italia 3.3%
Antivax 2.9%
an other five candidates 2.9%

Rimini: CL Hold
Center-Left 51.3%, elected
Right 32.9%
M5S 8.9%
Antivax 4.1%
an other two candidates 2.8%

Salerno: CL Hold
Center-Left 57.4%, elected
M5S 16.8%
Right 16%
Local list 3.5% (right leaning)
an other five candidates 6.3%

Cosenza: CL gain from R
Right 37.4% to run-off 42.4%
Center-left 23.8% to run-off 57.6%
Right dissident 13.9%
M5S 12.7%
Left 4.8%
Local center-right list 3.5%
An other two candidates 3.9%

Cerignola (FG): CL gain from local CR
Local center-right 29.6% to run-off 46.1%
Center-left+M5S 23.3% to run-off 53.9%
Dissident center-left 22%
Right 18.3%
an other local center-right 5.5%
An other two candidates 1.3%

Battipaglia (SA): Dissident R Hold
Dissident Right 45.7% to run-off 65.7%
Center-left 33.1% to run-off 34.3%
Local (center-left leaning) 8.2%
Right/FdI 4.9%
Left 3.4%
M5S 3%
an other candidate 1.7%

Afragola (NA): R Hold
Right 43.4% to run-off 51.4%
Center-right 35.9% to run-off 48.6%
Center-left+M5S 20.8%

Benevento: CR Hold
Center-right 49.4% to run-off 52.7%
Center-left 32.4% to run-off 47.3%
Left 13.2%
Right/FdI 5%

Caserta: CL Hold
Center-left 35.3% to run-off 53.6%
Right 30.1% to run-off 46.4%
Right dissident 13%
Local left 10.7%
an other local left 8.1%
an other two candidates 2.8%

Grosseto: R Hold
Right 56.2%
Center-left+M5S 31.1%
Center-left dissident 5.5%
An other five candidates 7.2%

Savona: CL gain from R
Center-left 47.8% to run-off 62.3%
Right 37.3% to run-off 37.7%
M5S 9.8%
Local, center-right leaning 3.9%
an other candidate 1.2%

Novara: R Hold
Right 69.6%
Center-left 20.5%
M5S 6.4%
Center-left dissident 2.6%
an other candidate 0.9%

Busto Arsizio (VA): R Hold
Right 55.1%
Center-left+M5S 20.7%
Center-right 14.7%
Center-left dissident 5.4%
Left 2.6%
an other candidate 1.5%

Gallarate (VA): R Hold
Right 52.8%
Center-left 34%
Local right 6.4%
Local, centrist leaning 5%
an other candidate 1.8%

Varese: CL Hold
Center-left+M5S 48% to run-off 53.2%
Right 44.9% to run-off 46.8%
Local transformist 2.8%
An other four candidates 4.3%

Rho (MI): CL Hold
Center-left 52.5%
Right 32.3%
Local, center-right 12.2%
Left 3%

Pordenone: R Hold
Right 65.4%
Center-left+M5S 29.9%
Local buxom woman 3.2%
An other candidate 1.5%

Olbia (SS): R Hold
Right 52.1%
Center-left+M5S 47.9%

Vittoria (RG) TBD
Center-left 39.1% to run-off 56%
Right 29.5% to run-off 44%
M5S 16.6%
local, left leaning 14.8%



Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 18, 2021, 06:53:06 PM
I was looking at Rome data and started doing some #analysis. It seems self-evident that both Calenda voters and Raggi voters split fairly comfortably for Gualtieri in the runoff. Gualtieri's and Michetti's gains from the first round were pretty evenly distributed around the city, but noticeably unusually strong for the latter and weak for the former in what were already the clearest strongholds for Michetti, municipi VI and XV (hilariously two areas very different in many respects). The VI in particular is the only municipio that Gualtieri lost in the runoff, which makes me kind of salty since with such a resounding overall victory I could have asked for a clean sweep. It would have compensated Raggi's clean sweep in 2016.

Further #analysis and maps will probably come up later on when I have more time.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 31, 2021, 08:59:22 PM
I have now gotten around to make nice maps by municipio of the Rome mayoral election. There is a lot of interesting stuff going on. I could talk about it here but for #analysis and maps at a further level of detail, made by people with more resources than me, I suggest the following: https://www.mapparoma.info/mappe/elezioni-comunali-2021-lastensione-e-il-voto-nelle-sette-rome/. Either way, I'll post the aforementioned maps made by myself in the next posts. Have fun!


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 31, 2021, 09:02:56 PM
Maps time! Round 1:

()
()
()
()


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 31, 2021, 09:06:19 PM
Maps time! Round 2:

()
()


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 31, 2021, 09:11:08 PM
And now combining together, maps showing the leading candidate with margins.

Round 1:
()


Round 2:
()


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 01, 2021, 05:25:15 AM
Beautiful, thank you!

Definitely looks like the Calenda -> Gualtieri transfer was a lot stronger than the Raggi -> Gualtieri one. I guess that's not too surprising.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 01, 2021, 12:13:22 PM
Beautiful, thank you!

Definitely looks like the Calenda -> Gualtieri transfer was a lot stronger than the Raggi -> Gualtieri one. I guess that's not too surprising.

Thanks. It was likely stronger but I am not sure it was a lot (I guess maps can be a little deceptive). I had already gone over that anyway:

It seems self-evident that both Calenda voters and Raggi voters split fairly comfortably for Gualtieri in the runoff. Gualtieri's and Michetti's gains from the first round were pretty evenly distributed around the city, but noticeably unusually strong for the latter and weak for the former in what were already the clearest strongholds for Michetti, municipi VI and XV (hilariously two areas very different in many respects).

But you gave me the idea that I should map the gains from first to second round as well.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 09, 2021, 01:06:56 PM
Being reported that M5S wants to join the PES, which I suppose makes sense given that its voter profile now looks amusingly like that of a social democratic party. Looking at its vote distribution in Rome recently, I did joke that Italian politics finally has what it has been missing: an extremely ineffectual labour party.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 10, 2021, 12:00:34 PM
Being reported that M5S wants to join the PES, which I suppose makes sense given that its voter profile now looks amusingly like that of a social democratic party. Looking at its vote distribution in Rome recently, I did joke that Italian politics finally has what it has been missing: an extremely ineffectual labour party.

To be fair M5S has had quite that kind of vote distribution for a while now - even though I am sure at their peak around 2018 it included along for the ride quite a few people who are not and have never been interested in a social democratic party. I suppose after two years of sort-of-not-really aligning itself with the traditional centre-left this is a logical move, but I cannot help having a gut reaction of just "lol".


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 10, 2021, 08:17:25 PM
And now for another, more unusual, set of maps of Rome. I did these a) to better visualize the race between the two most voted candidates in the first round b) because Calenda and Raggi had stunningly inverse voter distributions - and to some level had Michetti and Gualtieri too - more so than any other possible pair c) for fun.

Michetti vs Gualtieri in Round 1:
()

Note that this is not the same as the map showing the leading candidate and their margin of victory [over the second-placed one] since in a number of municipi either Gualtieri or Michetti fell in third.

Calenda vs Raggi in Round 1:
()

Atlas will have a field day with this because it is very easy to interpret it as a map of #populism <3 and #elitism :( in the city.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 10, 2021, 08:30:43 PM
I also have another map yet.

But you gave me the idea that I should map the gains from first to second round as well.

I reckoned that a good way to visualize this, to account for the fact that not all areas had simply as many possible total votes to pick up, was to subtract Michetti's gains in the runoff from Gualtieri's gains in the runoff.

()

As I have already mentioned, gains pretty equally distributed (low thirty-something percentage points for Gualtieri, little less than ten points for Michetti, subtracted makes 21-25 better in relative terms for the former) except for the XV and - especially - the VI. Two markedly different municipi, as the Calenda/Raggi map shows painfully well. But perhaps a logical couple in Anno Domini 2021.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 20, 2021, 11:48:07 AM
A bit late perhaps, but since last year I had linked here the interactive maps of the regional elections made by Bidimedia, I guess this year I should do the same for the Calabria regional election and the big city mayoral elections.

Calabria -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/regionali-calabria-2021-la-mappa-interattiva-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-comune-per-comune/

Naples -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/comunali-napoli-2021-la-mappa-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-quartiere-per-quartiere/

Bologna -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/comunali-bologna-2021-la-mappa-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-sezione-per-sezione/

Milan -
https://sondaggibidimedia.com/comunali-milano-2021-la-mappa-bidimedia-con-i-risultati-sezione-per-sezione/

Turin -
1st round - https://sondaggibidimedia.com/comunali-torino-2021-1-turno-mappa-bidimedia-risultati-sezione-per-sezione/
2nd round - https://sondaggibidimedia.com/comunali-torino-2021-ballottaggio-mappa-bidimedia/

I will not bother writing a longer #analysis here, considering all these articles (just like the Rome one from mapparoma I posted a while ago) already include it, but I will note some things:
- Calabria can only be described as "a huge mess". But then again hard to expect otherwise...
- The PD list had by far its best results in Naples in the neighbourhoods of the eastern industrial periphery (San Giovanni a Teduccio, Barra, Ponticelli) that historically were the heartland of the left in the city, something I consider significant as this was very much not the case in 2018 and 2019.
- Antonio Bassolino did best in the southwestern favoured quarter of Naples. I can't help finding this amusing, even though it is unsurprising given his biggest backer was none other than Calenda.
- In the three northern cities, there are fairly divergent electoral geographies. Milan is very radial with Sala's margin decreasing (together with wealth) going away from the centre. Bologna on the other hand has Lepore doing best in a ring of peripheries north and around the historic centre, and worst in the rich - though sparsely populated - southern hills, and some adjacent central areas. Turin is somewhat in the middle and more complicated, with the northern periphery quite to the right of the western and southern ones, Lo Russo peaking in some quasi-central neighbourhoods, and its own rightist rich and sparsely populated hills on the other side of the Po east/southeast. One thing that caught my eye is that in all three the PD list tended to have a more peripheral voter distribution than the centre-left taken as a whole (or alternatively, than the mayoral candidate it supported). All in all, if one subscribes to Trends Are Real, it could be said that Milan has undergone them more than Turin has undergone them more than Bologna...

EDIT: I had originally sent the wrong link for Naples. I have now fixed this.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 23, 2021, 09:16:30 AM
A few days ago Renzi made his annual speech at the Leopolda convention, where he sounded as combative as ever. From what I can tell he attacked PD and M5S more than anyone else, and hinted at the construction of a centrist liberal pole "inspired to Macron" possibly including even some parts of Forza Italia and Coraggio Italia. He of course also addressed - or rather scoffed at - the fire he has been receiving for his paid speeches in Saudi Arabia and membership on the board of trustees of an organization directly linked to Mohammed bin Salman (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Investment_Initiative_Institute).
Calenda reacted badly, saying he is sick of Renzi and doesn't care for his way of doing politics, and that his idea of a reformist centre is rather different. Incidentally, Calenda announced a couple weeks ago his move from the S&D to the RE group [where Italia Viva already sits] in the European Parliament in reaction to the M5S PES news.

In other news, Berlusconi recently came out in favour of the citizenship income, which many took to mean an attempt to curry favour with M5S members in case of a candidacy of his to President of the Republic - a prospect that seems to have become more concrete now. Manfred Weber of all people just expressed support for it.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on November 23, 2021, 10:45:22 AM
tl;dr Renzi doesn't hate gay people :) He just doesn't-hate plutocratic despots more than he doesn't-hate gay people :)


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on December 06, 2021, 07:53:47 PM
A reminder that another by-election will be held in the Roma Centre constituency, since Roberto Gualtieri resigned his parliamentary seat to take the office of mayor. The election date has been already established, January 16th.

The centre-left is definitely dominant in the constituency nowadays (and Gualtieri had been elected in a landslide himself in the original by-election, though of course with terrible turnout) so the most interesting question is who their candidate will be. The Democratic Party reportedly offered none other than Giuseppe Conte their support but he said he is not interesting in entering Parliament now. A possible other choice could be Enrico Gasbarra, former president of the province of Rome. Carlo Calenda has been mulling a run but I am skeptical that this will really affect the 'official' centre-left chances, since even in October he seems to have narrowly lost the area covered by the constituency - and remember this time M5S won't run separately in all likelihood.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections Runoff, 10/17-18
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 01, 2022, 10:36:04 AM
New Year's Update:

For the Rome by-election in two weeks, the centre-left has selected Cecilia D'Elia, former member of Veltroni's municipal administration and Zingaretti's regional administration, from the left flank of PD; Italia Viva has responded with Valerio Casini, who was elected city councillor last October with Calenda's list; the centre-right has chosen Simonetta Matone, a judge who a few months ago was Michetti's choice for deputy mayor should he be elected.

The budget was passed and significantly it includes the long-talked ~tax reform~. In particular the IRPEF (income tax) gets simplified from 5 to 4 brackets. In practical terms, the marginal rates from 15k to 50k euros of income were lowered, the ones from 50k to 75k were raised, and the remainder were left the same. The deduction system was also revised. The IRAP (regional tax on productive activities) was abolished for individual businesses. As part of measures to combat the energy bill spikes the IVA (value-added tax) on gas was reduced. Another significant measure is the "single family check" - from 50€ to 175€ a month per child (higher amounts to lower-income parents). Obviously there is much more to it but I wouldn't want to bore you - or myself...

On the topic of the now imminent presidential election, definitely the most talked-about names are still Draghi and Berlusconi, although I tend to think what will actually happen is anyone's guess. The President of the Chamber of Deputies Roberto Fico will officially call a joint session of the Parliament on the 4th of January. The actual election will probably start around the 20th, after regional councils have appointed their delegates (three for each except for Valle d'Aosta which has one - they elect the President of the Republic together with all Deputies and Senators). For reference Mattarella's term ends on the 4th of February.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 01, 2022, 11:17:16 AM
Thanks for the update, Battista. I edited the title to more accurately reflect the current focus.

I really can't see Berlusconi getting in, even though all three right-wing parties seem to be lining up behind him. He's obviously not acceptable for PD and M5S, and even if he somehow made a deal with Renzi, it wouldn't be enough to secure a majority. But he seems to be really trying to go for it, so who knows. It would be kinda hilarious if he got his wish now, after so many years of gunning for it.

Draghi is in a weird spot because on paper he's a great candidate who would be broadly acceptable to all, but him being PM right now means that his election would trigger a government crisis, which most parties would rather avoid (ironically, this has meant that Meloni, the leader of the only major party that doesn't support Draghi, is openly in favor of electing him as a way to have new elections).

So yeah, neither is too likely to go through. The third name you hear a lot about is Giuliano Amato, which is the name PD seems to be converging around (ironically, he was Berlusconi's preferred candidate in 2015). But he doesn't seem to be getting any traction beyond PD.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: Continential on January 01, 2022, 11:32:33 AM
What would happen to FI if Berlusconi becomes President?


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 01, 2022, 12:25:53 PM
What would happen to FI if Berlusconi becomes President?

My dad joked re: the aforementioned deal with Renzi, that in exchange Berlusconi might let him take the leadership of FI.

In all seriousness, it probably collapses into irrelevance. It's already well on its way there.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 01, 2022, 03:52:40 PM
What would happen to FI if Berlusconi becomes President?

My dad joked re: the aforementioned deal with Renzi, that in exchange Berlusconi might let him take the leadership of FI.

In all seriousness, it probably collapses into irrelevance. It's already well on its way there.

I would agree with this, although FI has exceeded my expectations so far since that core 7-8% that says in polls it would vote for the party has not really moved one inch in the last two years or so. Then again its results in most lower-level elections are generally even more pathetic so who knows.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on January 01, 2022, 05:58:02 PM
What would happen to FI if Berlusconi becomes President?

My dad joked re: the aforementioned deal with Renzi, that in exchange Berlusconi might let him take the leadership of FI.
That would be hilarious, I'm all for it.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 10, 2022, 07:00:48 PM
Anyway, we now have an official date for the presidential election: the first vote will be held on the 24th of January at 15. Generally speaking there are two votes per day, although sometimes only one. As a reminder, in the first three votes a 2/3 majority is required to elect the new President for the Republic; from the fourth vote on, an absolute majority is enough.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 10, 2022, 07:23:53 PM
Anyway, we now have an official date for the presidential election: the first vote will be held on the 24th of January at 15. Generally speaking there are two votes per day, although sometimes only one. As a reminder, in the first three votes a 2/3 majority is required to elect the new President for the Republic; from the fourth vote on, an absolute majority is enough.

I think this time they have only planned one vote per day, due to COVID safety precautions (don't ask me for details, I just heard it).

And on a related note, there are about 40 Electors who are sick with COVID right now, and there's no procedure for allowing them to vote, which might potentially skew the result...


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 16, 2022, 09:45:38 PM
Amid unsurprisingly dismal turnout (11.8%) the PD candidate Cecilia D'Elia has won the by-election in the Lazio 1 - 01 (central Rome) constituency by a blowout margin - pretty similar to Gualtieri's in the by-election that had been held two years ago. All the speculations on whether the right or even the centrist IV candidate could be competitive were shattered to pieces by... apathy and inertia (my father joked that there are probably more PD members in the constituency than people who turned out to vote).


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 17, 2022, 06:45:15 AM
On another note, Azione and +Europa have joined together in a "federation" and can be considered for most intents and purposes a single entity now. The first opinion poll I saw with Azione-+Europa constituting a single option had it at around 5%. Calenda was confident that it can reach 10% - I would not be so sure, but mid single digits would already be a respectable showing.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 17, 2022, 07:42:04 AM
On another note, Azione and +Europa have joined together in a "federation" and can be considered for most intents and purposes a single entity now. The first opinion poll I saw with Azione-+Europa constituting a single option had it at around 5%. Calenda was confident that it can reach 10% - I would not be so sure, but mid single digits would already be a respectable showing.

They'll be lucky to even get 5%, especially if they stay out of any electoral coalition. Out-of-coalition small parties almost always underperform their polling.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on January 17, 2022, 08:02:21 AM
On another note, Azione and +Europa have joined together in a "federation" and can be considered for most intents and purposes a single entity now. The first opinion poll I saw with Azione-+Europa constituting a single option had it at around 5%. Calenda was confident that it can reach 10% - I would not be so sure, but mid single digits would already be a respectable showing.
'There are too many minor centrist parties in Italy. Please eliminate three. I am not a crackpot!'


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 17, 2022, 08:19:03 AM
They'll be lucky to even get 5%, especially if they stay out of any electoral coalition. Out-of-coalition small parties almost always underperform their polling.

We'll see. In the meantime I wonder how Renzi reacted to this news - I can't find anything on this. Speaking of whom, he made a total cope tweet about the Rome by-election (where his candidate got 13%) saying it shows The Owls And The Pundits the real strength of IV and that the polls which have it at 2% don't matter. I would hope that Renzi is not stupid enough to actually believe that and that it's all spin/propaganda but...

'There are too many minor centrist parties in Italy. Please eliminate three. I am not a crackpot!'

Well now we are down to two. I suppose we could get down to one in the not so distant future if IV and CI actually form their own "federation" as well, but who knows.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 17, 2022, 08:49:30 AM
About the presidential election: Berlusconi is still the favoured candidate of the centre-right bloc, despite his divisiveness (and none other than Renzi just stated in an interview he does not think Berlusconi has the numbers - also that they haven't talked since the last presidential election), while Draghi keeps being floated especially from the other side but more as an eventuality (among the various speculations, there is one of a large agreement to elect Draghi so as to make a new government where all party leaders would get a ministry, which sounds incredibly Italian). More dark-horse but still prominent candidates include Marta Cartabia, Giuliano Amato, Pier Ferdinando Casini, Maria Elisabetta Alberti Casellati, and even a second term of Sergio Mattarella (forget about that).

Right now I would expect a lot of abstentions in the first three rounds of voting, but otherwise I am ever wary of making predictions. The week that remains before the election could of course still scramble a lot of things.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 22, 2022, 03:18:13 PM
UPDATE!

Silvio Berlusconi just officially renounced to his candidacy for President of the Republic, inviting the centre-right coalition to find another common name. We have no certainty on who this name could be but I'd think Alberti Casellati is the most likely. The coalition also seems now unified in wanting to keep Draghi as President of the Council and preventing his election.

On the other side, the centre-left and M5S don't seem to have a real common alternative, except to keep attempting a deal on Draghi. Their main point is clearly wanting to avoid electing a President from the right, which they believe they have the numbers for.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: xelas81 on January 22, 2022, 03:55:29 PM
Is Mattarella's age (he is 80 years old) the only reason against his second term?


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 22, 2022, 04:53:53 PM
Is Mattarella's age (he is 80 years old) the only reason against his second term?

I wouldn't necessarily say so - Pertini, Ciampi and Napolitano were elected at similar ages. However Mattarella clearly seems to have no desire for another term, and re-electing a President of the Republic is something that is considered... not the norm for various reasons (chiefly among them that a single presidential term is already very long).


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 23, 2022, 05:36:51 AM
UPDATE!

Silvio Berlusconi just officially renounced to his candidacy for President of the Republic, inviting the centre-right coalition to find another common name. We have no certainty on who this name could be but I'd think Alberti Casellati is the most likely. The coalition also seems now unified in wanting to keep Draghi as President of the Council and preventing his election.

On the other side, the centre-left and M5S don't seem to have a real common alternative, except to keep attempting a deal on Draghi. Their main point is clearly wanting to avoid electing a President from the right, which they believe they have the numbers for.

Casellati would be a fine President honestly. Of course she made some biased decisions as president of the Senate, but that's really true of all presidents of a legislative chamber, and generally she's comported herself with great institutional dignity. And honestly, yeah, having a woman President would be nice at long last.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: FrancoAgo on January 23, 2022, 09:09:52 AM
I would prefer Berlusconi to Casellati, that is not Casellati, Casellati is the husband


Title: Italian Presidential Election (Round 2, 01/25/2022)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 24, 2022, 03:37:38 PM
First Round results are in (https://elezioni.repubblica.it/2022/presidente-repubblica), and unsurprisingly it's a landslide for "Blank":

Blank 672
Paolo Maddalena 36
Sergio Mattarella 16
Marta Cartabia 9
Roberto Cassinelli 7
Antonio Tasso 6
Guido De Martini 6
Silvio Berlusconi 6
Ettore Rosato 5
Marco Cappato 5
Umberto Bossi 5
Others 154
Null 49
Didn't vote 32


Next vote tomorrow at 3pm.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: President Johnson on January 24, 2022, 03:49:54 PM
Is Mattarella's age (he is 80 years old) the only reason against his second term?

I wouldn't necessarily say so - Pertini, Ciampi and Napolitano were elected at similar ages. However Mattarella clearly seems to have no desire for another term, and re-electing a President of the Republic is something that is considered... not the norm for various reasons (chiefly among them that a single presidential term is already very long).

I remember reading that it was a long standing tradition presidents don't seek second terms back in 2013 when Napolitano was standing for reelection in a difficult political situation. However, as already promised, he resigned during his second term.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election, Jan.-Feb. 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 24, 2022, 04:45:07 PM
Is Mattarella's age (he is 80 years old) the only reason against his second term?

I wouldn't necessarily say so - Pertini, Ciampi and Napolitano were elected at similar ages. However Mattarella clearly seems to have no desire for another term, and re-electing a President of the Republic is something that is considered... not the norm for various reasons (chiefly among them that a single presidential term is already very long).

I remember reading that it was a long standing tradition presidents don't seek second terms back in 2013 when Napolitano was standing for reelection in a difficult political situation. However, as already promised, he resigned during his second term.

Well indeed Napolitano was not really "standing for reelection" either - he only accepted his unprecedented reelection somewhat begrudgingly after a few inconclusive rounds, to break the deadlock.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 2, 01/25/2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 24, 2022, 04:58:31 PM
As a reference, the most voted candidate today, Paolo Maddalena, is a former judge of the constitutional court, and his support comes from various figures in the mixed group (mostly ex-M5S). He is to say the least not a famous figure - honestly I had no idea who he was before today - but apparently he has been chosen among other things because he is a strong critic of neoliberalism and supporter of public goods. Interesting for sure... [he stands approximately no chance obviously].


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 2, 01/25/2022)
Post by: Logical on January 24, 2022, 07:53:51 PM
Has anyone tried nominating the Pope?


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 2, 01/25/2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 25, 2022, 07:13:24 AM
Has anyone tried nominating the Pope?

The current Pope is of course not eligible if anything because he is not an Italian citizen, although I am sure he'd be more popular than just about any alternative.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 2, 01/25/2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 25, 2022, 07:28:56 AM
Today the centre-right is expected to publish a list of possible names for the presidency, which should include people such as Casellati, philosopher Marcello Pera, and former prosecutor Carlo Nordio (especially well-liked by FdI). Another name that has come up recently is former Minister of Foreign Affairs Franco Frattini, who is rumoured to be liked by both Salvini and Conte. I am less sure on what is happening on the centre-left but Letta just remarked we need an "Atlanticist" President in relation to the current news about Russia and Ukraine. In the actual round of voting we will in all likelihood see another landslide of blank ballots of course, although I do wonder whether more random electors will opt for Maddalena or Mattarella just because.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 2, 01/25/2022)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 25, 2022, 08:17:13 AM
Today the centre-right is expected to publish a list of possible names for the presidency, which should include people such as Casellati, philosopher Marcello Pera, and former prosecutor Carlo Nordio (especially well-liked by FdI). Another name that has come up recently is former Minister of Foreign Affairs Franco Frattini, who is rumoured to be liked by both Salvini and Conte. I am less sure on what is happening on the centre-left but Letta just remarked we need an "Atlanticist" President in relation to the current news about Russia and Ukraine. In the actual round of voting we will in all likelihood see another landslide of blank ballots of course, although I do wonder whether more random electors will opt for Maddalena or Mattarella just because.

Someone ring up the Classical Liberal Atlanticist Mod Faction! One of them should run.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 2, 01/25/2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 25, 2022, 08:19:22 AM
Today the centre-right is expected to publish a list of possible names for the presidency, which should include people such as Casellati, philosopher Marcello Pera, and former prosecutor Carlo Nordio (especially well-liked by FdI). Another name that has come up recently is former Minister of Foreign Affairs Franco Frattini, who is rumoured to be liked by both Salvini and Conte. I am less sure on what is happening on the centre-left but Letta just remarked we need an "Atlanticist" President in relation to the current news about Russia and Ukraine. In the actual round of voting we will in all likelihood see another landslide of blank ballots of course, although I do wonder whether more random electors will opt for Maddalena or Mattarella just because.

Someone ring up the Classical Liberal Atlanticist Mod Faction! One of them should run.

Al, for one, probably knows Italian political history better than some of the candidates who have been floated so far.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 3, 01/26/2022)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 25, 2022, 02:31:03 PM
Second Round results: (https://elezioni.repubblica.it/2022/presidente-repubblica)

Blank 527

Paolo Maddalena 39
Sergio Mattarella 39
Renzo Tondo 18
Roberto Cassinelli 17
Ettore Rosato 14
Umberto Bossi 12
Giancarlo Giorgetti 8
Luigi Manconi 8
Marta Cartabia 8
Giuseppe Moles 7
Silvio Berlusconi 7
Nicola Gratteri 6
Pier Luigi Bersani 6
Serafino Generoso 6
Cesare Pianasso 5
Others 213

Null 38

Didn't vote 31


Quite a few more votes this time around, but still all meaningless. Party leaders are still slowly working toward an agreement, and there should be a meeting tomorrow that might start resolving things. Still, who knows.

Tomorrow we'll have the third round of voting, which will be the final one to require a qualified 2/3rds majority. Starting with the fourth round, only a majority will be required. This should encourage parties to get a bit bolder.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 2, 01/25/2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 25, 2022, 03:08:51 PM
Today the centre-right is expected to publish a list of possible names for the presidency, which should include people such as Casellati, philosopher Marcello Pera, and former prosecutor Carlo Nordio (especially well-liked by FdI).

The list has now been published and to my surprise there was no Casellati - the third name alongside Nordio and Pera was instead former mayor of Milan Letizia Moratti. But we'll have to see whether this is not just a tactical move to force the centre-left to take more specific stances.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 2, 01/25/2022)
Post by: President Johnson on January 25, 2022, 03:14:14 PM
Could there be an opening for Mario Draghi? At least his name was mentioned a few months ago and seems that he's widely popular to win a majority. But I guess he wants to stay on as prime minister?


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 2, 01/25/2022)
Post by: FrancoAgo on January 25, 2022, 07:18:05 PM

The list has now been published and to my surprise there was no Casellati - the third name alongside Nordio and Pera was instead former mayor of Milan Letizia Moratti. But we'll have to see whether this is not just a tactical move to force the centre-left to take more specific stances.

to this 3 i prefer Berlusconi


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 2, 01/25/2022)
Post by: jeron on January 26, 2022, 04:59:43 AM

The list has now been published and to my surprise there was no Casellati - the third name alongside Nordio and Pera was instead former mayor of Milan Letizia Moratti. But we'll have to see whether this is not just a tactical move to force the centre-left to take more specific stances.

to this 3 i prefer Berlusconi

Why?


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 2, 01/25/2022)
Post by: FrancoAgo on January 26, 2022, 05:12:49 AM

The list has now been published and to my surprise there was no Casellati - the third name alongside Nordio and Pera was instead former mayor of Milan Letizia Moratti. But we'll have to see whether this is not just a tactical move to force the centre-left to take more specific stances.

to this 3 i prefer Berlusconi

Why?
because is a well known bastard, the others are less known but in deeply worst, already the fact that the 2 female use their husband surname...


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 2, 01/25/2022)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 26, 2022, 12:51:16 PM
Third Round, the last one that requited a 2/3rds majority. (https://elezioni.repubblica.it/2022/presidente-repubblica) Once again it went nowhere though.

Blanks 412

Sergio Mattarella 125
Guido Crosetto 114
Paolo Maddalena 61
Pier Ferdinando Casini 52
Giancarlo Giorgetti 19
Luigi Manconi 8
Marta Cartabia 8
Pier Luigi Bersani 7
Umberto Bossi 7
Clemente Mastella 6
Marco Doria 6
Marco Cappato 6
Giuseppe Moles 6
Mario Draghi 5
Others 121

Null 22
Didn't vote 24

A few more people coming out of the woodwork, most of all the FdI and Lega contingent flexing a bit by converging on Crosetto, but that still means very little. Mattarella must no doubt be annoyed to be getting so many votes though. :P

The latest news is that Salvini is meeting with the eminent jurist Sabino Cassese, who on paper seems like an unimpeachable presidential candidate, but might have taken stances that put him at odds with Draghi. We'll see if anything comes out of it.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 2, 01/25/2022)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 26, 2022, 01:54:02 PM
Obligatory (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBuGyTAqz04)


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 2, 01/25/2022)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 26, 2022, 03:07:37 PM
Update: Lega sources have denied meeting with Cassese. Meanwhile Letta put a veto on Casellati and Conte put a veto on Casini, and still no one wants Draghi, so we're still nowhere near a solution.

Many rounds of meetings scheduled for tonight and tomorrow morning, so hopefully something comes out of it.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 2, 01/25/2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 26, 2022, 03:59:05 PM
Huh, the third round was definitely more interesting than the previous two. I wonder where all the new votes for Mattarella come from - one would guess PD [also for sure the source of Casini support] but I think there's a strong chance a lot of them were M5S members.

Speaking of which, Grillo had a telephone conversation with Conte to discuss the next moves and it was alleged that he told the new leader to vote for Draghi, something which Grillo immediately denied. It would be too funny if true...


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 2, 01/25/2022)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 27, 2022, 10:08:29 AM
Fourth round went through and still nothing came out of it. This time decided to abstain instead of voting blank for some reason, and the rest scattered around in a bunch of candidates. Pathetic stuff all around. I won't bother listing the tally because who the f**k cares.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 5 upcoming)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 27, 2022, 10:57:57 AM
Well I will list the tally of round IV (https://parlamento18.camera.it/61) then if anyone is interested.

Sergio Mattarella 166
Nino Di Matteo 56
Luigi Manconi 8
Marta Cartabia 6
Mario Draghi 5
Giuliano Amato 4
Pier Ferdinando Casini 3
Maria Teresa Baldini 2
Elisabetta Belloni 2
Pier Luigi Bersani 2
Others 20

Blank 261
Null 5
Present but abstained 441 (+ 28 absentees)

The right as Antonio mentioned decided to just abstain. The former Paolo Maddalena voters moved over to Nino Di Matteo, a Sicilian public prosecutor who has handled various high profile Mafia cases. Mattarella has kept gaining new votes (scooping up those who opted for Casini yesterday, I imagine).
Nothing conclusive is known yet, although in additional to the usual names Belloni (and Cassese) seem to have gained some traction now.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 5 upcoming)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 27, 2022, 11:00:52 AM
Moving on from today's round, Matteo Salvini was just quoted by reporters expressing a lot of confidence about tomorrow and saying Lega will stop voting blank in the fifth round. Obviously, we can only speculate as to what that actually means and whether the rest of the political spectrum will accept his offer...


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 5 upcoming)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 28, 2022, 10:13:06 AM
And now the tally of round V (https://parlamento18.camera.it/61) which went on this morning.

Maria Elisabetta Alberti Casellati 382
Sergio Mattarella 46
Nino Di Matteo 38
Silvio Berlusconi 8
Marta Cartabia 7
Antonio Tajani 7
Pier Ferdinando Casini 6
Mario Draghi 3
Elisabetta Belloni 2
Joseph-César Perrin 2
Others 9

Blank 11
Null 9
Present but abstained 406 (+ 73 absentees)

So this morning it was revealed that Salvini's name was, so trivially that it looped back to being surprising to me at least, Alberti Casellati. All the centre-left and M5S got mad at the unilateral decision and decided to abstain in response. Mattarella kept getting a bunch of votes nonetheless, many of whom are likely to be defectors from the right. The obvious and sizable number of defections was met with animosity, and FdI and Lega seem to be now implicitly accusing Forza Italia of disloyalty.
In any case, from today on we have two rounds of voting per day, so we'll see what happens this evening [sixth round starts at 17 Italian time]. My understanding is that the name of Casellati is considered to have flopped, but I can't tell the immediate alternative.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 6 happening now)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 28, 2022, 11:08:56 AM
This is getting absolutely pathetic, and no party leader is coming off well. Salvini is just flailing around pulling new names out of his ass without consulting anyone, Letta is saying no to everything without giving an indication of whom he might actually support, and Conte seems to be randomly scheming to double-cross him for no discernable reason. It shouldn't be so hard for the three to get together and hash it out.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 6 happening now)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 28, 2022, 12:42:16 PM
It shouldn't be so hard for the three to get together and hash it out.

...and it looks like this is finally happening. The Big Three have just emerged from a confidential meeting, and will meet again in about an hour. Still no official announcement but rumors that progress is being made.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 6 happening now)
Post by: parochial boy on January 28, 2022, 01:50:20 PM
Five days and counting?

Tell me you're Italian politics without telling me you're Italian politics


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 6 happening now)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 28, 2022, 02:35:06 PM
Apparently what the Big Three decided this evening is that the new president should be a woman. Which... actually narrows things quite a bit, barring an upset. Casellati was initially the strongest candidate as far as women went, but then Salvini tried to force her through, and the failure of that attempt leaves her candidacy dead in the water. That leaves Elisabetta Belloni, a prominent career civil servant with a focus on diplomacy and intelligence agencies. She's apparently well-liked across the board, so she makes a ton of sense as a compromise candidate. But it ain't done till it's done.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 6 happening now)
Post by: jeron on January 28, 2022, 02:49:06 PM
Apparently what the Big Three decided this evening is that the new president should be a woman. Which... actually narrows things quite a bit, barring an upset. Casellati was initially the strongest candidate as far as women went, but then Salvini tried to force her through, and the failure of that attempt leaves her candidacy dead in the water. That leaves Elisabetta Belloni, a prominent career civil servant with a focus on diplomacy and intelligence agencies. She's apparently well-liked across the board, so she makes a ton of sense as a compromise candidate. But it ain't done till it's done.

I do wonder where all these Mattarella votes are coming from now...


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 6 happening now)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 28, 2022, 04:11:51 PM
Five days and counting?

Tell me you're Italian politics without telling me you're Italian politics

We have had a fair few presidential elections that lasted significantly more than five days, although admittedly the last one was in 1992 so politically speaking eons ago.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 6 happening now)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 28, 2022, 04:31:47 PM
So since Belloni became the de-facto nominee the fault lines around her candidacy are starting to emerge. And those fault lines take us all the way back to... 2018. Don't ask me why, but it appears that the main forces that are pushing her are Lega and M5S (along with FdI, Meloni being apparently personally close with Belloni). Meanwhile, Renzi and FI have both come out against her, on the (fairly spurious to me) basis that it would be wrong for someone involved with intelligence agencies to become the head of state. PD has also indicated some doubts about her candidacy (despite Letta having been in the meeting that seemingly led to her naming), though not as explicitly.

So, long story short, we still have no clue what's going on here. If Belloni makes it through, that would seemingly create a rift in the government's majority, which might be a serious problem.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 6 happening now)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 28, 2022, 04:49:52 PM
The tally of round VI (https://parlamento18.camera.it/61) was interesting.

Sergio Mattarella 336
Nino Di Matteo 41
Pier Ferdinando Casini 9
Luigi Manconi 8
Marta Cartabia 5
Mario Draghi 5
Elisabetta Belloni 4
Giuliano Amato 3
Maria Elisabetta Alberti Casellati 2
Others 9

Blank 106
Null 4
Present but abstained 445 (+ 33 absentees)

For this evening, the sides switched again and it's been the centre-right to abstain. On the other side, the centre-left announced officially the intention to vote blank but in practice most of its members went for Mattarella, as a form of signaling.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 7 on 01/28)
Post by: FrancoAgo on January 28, 2022, 06:13:05 PM
the title is wrong the round 7 will be the 29th january


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 7 on 01/29)
Post by: Estrella on January 29, 2022, 06:44:18 AM
A Mattarella second term is being talked about again, with support from Salvini of all people.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 7 ongoing)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 29, 2022, 07:08:23 AM
Jesus F**king Christ

So in a great redo of 2013, all the parties have officially begged Mattarella to stay. He hasn't accepted yet but from the looks of it it sounds like he will.

This is beyond pathetic, and if anyone had any sense of shame they'd all resign and f**k off.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 6 happening now)
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 29, 2022, 07:35:58 AM
Five days and counting?

Tell me you're Italian politics without telling me you're Italian politics

I said this somewhere else, but even Papal conclaves somehow manage to be more transparent and effective than Italian Presidential elections.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 8 upcoming)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 29, 2022, 07:43:59 AM
In the meantime round 7 was another flop, with Mattarella crawling up to 387 votes but 400 or so abstentions.

Round 8 should be the one that actually reelects him.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 8 upcoming)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on January 29, 2022, 08:02:32 AM
Genuine LOL.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 6 happening now)
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on January 29, 2022, 08:15:48 AM
Five days and counting?

Tell me you're Italian politics without telling me you're Italian politics

I said this somewhere else, but even Papal conclaves somehow manage to be more transparent and effective than Italian Presidential elections.

I'm sure Italian Presidential elections would work better too if we locked up the electors in the Sistine Chapel until they make a sensible selection.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 8 upcoming)
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on January 29, 2022, 08:21:30 AM
Just restore the House of Savoy and the Italian kingdom already. Time to realize constitutional monarchy is just better.   


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 8 upcoming)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 29, 2022, 09:17:40 AM
This is extremely, extremely funny.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 8 upcoming)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 29, 2022, 09:28:20 AM
I will diligently attach the tally of round VII (https://parlamento18.camera.it/61) then.

Sergio Mattarella 387
Carlo Nordio 64
Nino Di Matteo 40
Pier Ferdinando Casini 10
Elisabetta Belloni 8
Luigi Manconi 6
Marta Cartabia 4
Mario Draghi 2
Emilio Scalzo 2
Others 9

Blank 60
Null 4
Present but abstained 380 (+ 33 absentees)

Yes, Fratelli d'Italia voted for Nordio. The absentions seem to come from the rest of the centre-right. All I can add is - lol.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 8 upcoming)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 29, 2022, 09:37:01 AM
It would be glorious if Mattarella told the parties he is not available, but alas... They deserve 30 rounds of voting to showcase their incompetence, We deserve 30 rounds of voting for our entertainment, and Mattarella deserves his earned retirement (well he'd become Senator for life after his term ends so not exactly but you get what I mean).


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Round 8 upcoming)
Post by: FrancoAgo on January 29, 2022, 10:19:16 AM
if the right coalition broke up after this allora ne è valsa la pena
and i don't see  needs of the rush for elect the new president Mattarella first term end the 3rd February and also if there hadn't be a new president-elect, we have the senato president for this work (like US vice-president)


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Mattarella IN, round 8 ongoing)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 29, 2022, 10:37:25 AM
Well, round 8 has begun, and by all accounts it should be a landslide for Mattarella.

He really should have told the parties to f**k off and get their act together. But oh well. He has more sense of duty than this country deserves.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Mattarella IN, round 8 ongoing)
Post by: Mike88 on January 29, 2022, 01:42:59 PM
There counting right now, right?


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Mattarella IN, round 8 ongoing)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 29, 2022, 01:43:46 PM

About to begin.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Mattarella IN, round 8 ongoing)
Post by: Mike88 on January 29, 2022, 01:44:20 PM

Let's see if it's the final one.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Mattarella IN, round 8 ongoing)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 29, 2022, 01:45:30 PM

It should be. Mattarella is expected to get over 800 votes.

Edit: here it starts.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Mattarella landslide incoming)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 29, 2022, 01:46:49 PM
Live count here: https://www.la7.it/dirette-tv


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Mattarella landslide incoming)
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on January 29, 2022, 01:47:22 PM
He should let them re-elect him and then either immediately resign or dissolve parliament and then resign.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Mattarella IN, round 8 ongoing)
Post by: Mike88 on January 29, 2022, 01:48:21 PM

Yeah, I'm watching a live feed of the count, and the Counting Chair says Mattarella's name over and over again as each ballot is given to him.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Mattarella IN, round 8 ongoing)
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on January 29, 2022, 01:51:32 PM

Yeah, I'm watching a live feed of the count, and the Counting Chair says Mattarella's name over and over again as each ballot is given to him.



Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Mattarella landslide incoming)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 29, 2022, 02:01:44 PM
He should let them re-elect him and then either immediately resign or dissolve parliament and then resign.

That would be the ultimate troll move. If only...


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election (Mattarella landslide incoming)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 29, 2022, 02:05:48 PM
Mattarella just crossed 300 votes with about 400 votes counted. A bit more scattered votes than anticipated, so at this point it looks like he'll be around 750 rather than 800.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 29, 2022, 02:21:28 PM
Mattarella crossed 505. Here we go, it's official.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 29, 2022, 02:43:17 PM
It's done. 759 votes for Mattarella.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: President Johnson on January 29, 2022, 02:48:21 PM
I wonder whether he'll serve the full seven year term or pull a Napolitano and resign in a year or two?


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 29, 2022, 02:54:46 PM
Full Round 8 results: (https://elezioni.repubblica.it/2022/presidente-repubblica)

Sergio Mattarella 759
Carlo Nordio 90
Nino Di Matteo 37
Silvio Berlusconi 9
Elisabetta Belloni 6
Mario Draghi 5
Pier Ferdinando Casini 5
Maria Elisabetta Alberti Casellati 4
Others 32

Blank 25
Null 13
Didn't vote 24


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 29, 2022, 02:58:49 PM
I wonder whether he'll serve the full seven year term or pull a Napolitano and resign in a year or two?

That's the big question. I sure hope he doesn't resign when the right-wing parties have a majority, because it would be the nightmare scenario.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: Flyersfan232 on January 30, 2022, 03:46:27 PM
will they be push for a directly elected president after this?


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 30, 2022, 04:36:14 PM
will they be push for a directly elected president after this?

I hope not considering the nature of the Italian presidency, but never underestimate the stupidity of institutional reform ideas in il bel paese.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 30, 2022, 04:39:44 PM
will they be push for a directly elected president after this?

I hope not considering the nature of the Italian presidency, but never underestimate the stupidity of institutional reform ideas in il bel paese.

Yeah, the very last thing Italy needs is more personalization of politics.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: Flyersfan232 on January 30, 2022, 04:49:49 PM
will they be push for a directly elected president after this?

I hope not considering the nature of the Italian presidency, but never underestimate the stupidity of institutional reform ideas in il bel paese.
couple of royal families doing nothing


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 30, 2022, 05:12:04 PM
will they be push for a directly elected president after this?

I hope not considering the nature of the Italian presidency, but never underestimate the stupidity of institutional reform ideas in il bel paese.

A significant number of people would favour a semi-presidential or presidential republic, but I would think that's been the case since at least the time of Mani pulite or so, therefore I doubt this will actually lead to anything in the foreseeable future.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: Flyersfan232 on January 30, 2022, 06:29:16 PM
will they be push for a directly elected president after this?

I hope not considering the nature of the Italian presidency, but never underestimate the stupidity of institutional reform ideas in il bel paese.
couple of royal families doing nothing
Speaking of this what is the monarchist scene like now a days


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 30, 2022, 07:48:54 PM
will they be push for a directly elected president after this?

I hope not considering the nature of the Italian presidency, but never underestimate the stupidity of institutional reform ideas in il bel paese.
couple of royal families doing nothing
Speaking of this what is the monarchist scene like now a days

Uhm... pretty much entirely irrelevant, same as it's been for many decades? I think it's possible that the death of Amedeo of Savoy-Aosta half a year ago could have affected the dynastic dispute between his line (now represented by his son Aimone) and the direct line represented by Vittorio Emanuele (son of Umberto II), but I have no idea since these circles are very fringe and I know next to nothing about them.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 04, 2022, 07:42:00 PM
Italia Viva (Renzi) and Coraggio Italia (Toti) have just announced that they will form a single parliamentary group, which is the first step towards their union in a single political force which is expected to take the name of Italia al Centro. Also included are among others Riccardo Nencini's PSI (currently sitting with IV) and Gaetano Quagliariello's IdeA (currently sitting with CI).

'There are too many minor centrist parties in Italy. Please eliminate three. I am not a crackpot!'

Well now we are down to two. I suppose we could get down to one in the not so distant future if IV and CI actually form their own "federation" as well, but who knows.

And now we are down to one! Congratulations to Heat I guess.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: Estrella on February 11, 2022, 07:59:32 PM
The peak of the Atlas brand of dweebery is watching random old election coverage from other countries, preferably in a language you don't understand. I couldn't find much for Italy, but what I did find was fascinating. Italian election nights used to be wild.

Quote
A clip from "TG1 Non Stop Elections 1983", the coverage of the first network for the general elections of 1983. The entertainment part is entrusted to Raffaella Carrà and Beppe Grillo while Bruno Vespa takes care of the vote counting. Raffaella opens the programme with "Ballo Ballo" and then welcomes the first great guest, Bonnie Tyler, who performs "Total Eclipse of the Heart".


With how long it takes America to count the votes, I'm sure their networks could squeeze in a musical number or two.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: FrancoAgo on February 12, 2022, 06:32:56 AM
Thats were the 80s, was not wild for the 80s or the late 70s


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 12, 2022, 09:52:32 AM
The peak of the Atlas brand of dweebery is watching random old election coverage from other countries, preferably in a language you don't understand. I couldn't find much for Italy, but what I did find was fascinating. Italian election nights used to be wild.

Quote
A clip from "TG1 Non Stop Elections 1983", the coverage of the first network for the general elections of 1983. The entertainment part is entrusted to Raffaella Carrà and Beppe Grillo while Bruno Vespa takes care of the vote counting. Raffaella opens the programme with "Ballo Ballo" and then welcomes the first great guest, Bonnie Tyler, who performs "Total Eclipse of the Heart".


With how long it takes America to count the votes, I'm sure their networks could squeeze in a musical number or two.

Here's coverage of the 2018 elections, if you're curious!




Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 16, 2022, 12:14:47 PM
The peak of the Atlas brand of dweebery is watching random old election coverage from other countries, preferably in a language you don't understand. I couldn't find much for Italy, but what I did find was fascinating. Italian election nights used to be wild.

Quote
A clip from "TG1 Non Stop Elections 1983", the coverage of the first network for the general elections of 1983. The entertainment part is entrusted to Raffaella Carrà and Beppe Grillo while Bruno Vespa takes care of the vote counting. Raffaella opens the programme with "Ballo Ballo" and then welcomes the first great guest, Bonnie Tyler, who performs "Total Eclipse of the Heart".

Ah, the good old days when Beppe Grillo was just an entertainer and did not also "lead" a "party". Too bad a few years later he would be sacked for making an off-limits joke about Craxi and Martelli...

Here's coverage of the 2018 elections, if you're curious!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D7DbpupTI8c

I have only rarely watched the Maratona Mentana myself (I imagine you have much more experience of it) but it's basically an institution, yes.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 16, 2022, 01:19:02 PM
In other news, this year we have regional elections in Sicily [and a bunch of local elections as always - see below], and things seem to be getting messy.

Incumbent right-wing president Nello Musumeci intends to run for re-election but for now he only has the support of Fratelli d'Italia and his personal list or regional party #DiventeràBellissima [yes. we have a party called 'hashtag it will become very beautiful'. why do you even ask...]. The behaviour of Lega and of UDC is unclear, while Forza Italia wants to run Gianfranco Miccichè, currently president of the regional assembly and a big name in Sicilian politics; Micchiché incidentally already ran in 2012 and probably acted as a spoiler for Musumeci, who was the 'official' candidate for the right (PdL) back then already. I am not knowledgeable enough to understand the dynamics at play in detail, but it is clear there are some serious divisions within the Sicilian right. Although Musumeci's camp is suggesting that the only divisions are within Sicilian FI and Berlusconi hasn't actually approved of Miccichè's run... oh well.
The independent mayor of Messina Cateno De Luca (centre-to-centre-right ex-DC area) is also officially running, potentially with some sort of centrist coalition, and actually just resigned his office to concentrate on his regional candidacy. In the centre-left, PD would like to run one of its two MEPs from the Islands constituency, while in the Five Star Movement Dino Giarrusso, also a MEP, has expressed his interest. However there are suggestions of holding coalition primaries, so we may have to wait for those.

The Sicilian election is presumed to be held later in the year, as the last one was in November 2017. On the other hand, the local elections should go back to be held in the spring after COVID forced to shift the last two cycles to September/October. Incidentally, the biggest city of this year's round is Palermo. Other notable cities going to the polls include Monza, Verona, Padua, Parma, L'Aquila, Catanzaro, Genoa and my home city of La Spezia.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 16, 2022, 01:22:34 PM
Forgive the triple posting but:

More dark-horse but still prominent candidates include Marta Cartabia, Giuliano Amato, Pier Ferdinando Casini, Maria Elisabetta Alberti Casellati, and even a second term of Sergio Mattarella (forget about that).

Right now I would expect a lot of abstentions in the first three rounds of voting, but otherwise I am ever wary of making predictions. The week that remains before the election could of course still scramble a lot of things.

Damn was I wrong. Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. In my defense, it is fairly probable Mattarella himself was thinking "forget about that" back then...


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 16, 2022, 06:12:30 AM
I forgot to mention this earlier, but this year we will also have five referenda on the judicial system (two about the composition and structure of the Superior Council of the Judiciary, one about preventive detention, one about the law which automatically bars certain convicted criminal from public offices, and one about separating definitively the career paths of judge and prosecutor). A sixth referendum proposal about civil responsibility for judges was disallowed by the Constitutional Court together with one on marijuana and one on euthanasia.

The election date has not been set yet but we will likely know soon - in any case it is almost certain to coincide with the local elections.


Title: Re: Italian Presidential Election: Mattarella re-elected
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 03, 2022, 06:17:32 AM
The date of the local elections and referendums has been officially set at the 12th of June (obviously, eventual runoffs in the mayoral races will be held on the 26th).

The date of the Sicilian regional election, on the other hand, is still unknown. What we have is a prospective date for a broad centre-left front primary - 9th of July seems to be the PD's choice - but we still have to hear from the M5S and it looks like some minor partners are now opposed to holding one. Incidentally, I also found that Cateno De Luca posted on Facebook a rumour that "they" don't want Musumeci to run for re-election. Ah, Sicily...


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 03, 2022, 08:29:43 AM
Changed the title by popular (ie, one particular person's (very insistent)) demand. Couldn't think of anything quippy so enjoy the next reminder in Italy's always thick* electoral calendar.

*Almost as thick as Giuseppe Conte's skull. There, I found a quip.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 03, 2022, 11:20:02 AM
Changed the title by popular (ie, one particular person's (very insistent)) demand. Couldn't think of anything quippy so enjoy the next reminder in Italy's always thick* electoral calendar.

*Almost as thick as Giuseppe Conte's skull. There, I found a quip.

To be fair, I alone constitute 50% of this thread's readership. :P


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on May 20, 2022, 02:38:48 PM
I haven't had much time or interest to update this thread recently... but last Saturday was the date by which official lists and candidates for the local elections had to be presented so it's time for a recollection of the biggest contests. I would have done this a few days ago but the Sicily deadline was a little later (ah, Sicily) so I preferred to wait.

PALERMO
Incumbent mayor Leoluca Orlando (PD), who across his three separate stints has occupied the mayor office for almost a quarter century now, is ineligible for re-election - although I am not quite sure he would go very far if he could run. The centre-right after very long deliberations agreed on the candidacy of the regional minister for education Roberto Lagalla (also de facto supported by IV even though Renzi seems still not over Davide Faraone's candidacy falling through). The centre-left including M5S - which at this point is going separately only in rare circumstances - opted for architect and former member of the municipal government Franco Miceli, while Azione/+E chose hilariously enough Fabrizio Ferrandelli, who was the centre-right candidate last time in 2017. Among minor candidates I consider notable the presence of Rita Barbera, former director of Palermo's jail supported by the far left of PaP. All polls I could find are from before the line-up was clear and probably useless... but the race should be quite competitive.

GENOA
The incumbent Marco Bucci (cdx independent), the first directly elected centre-right mayor of the city, is running again and facing as his main opponent Ariel Dello Strologo, a lawyer and the president of Genoa's Jewish community supported by all the centre-left. All... if IV and A don't count, as they seem to be behind Bucci through a civic list. Bucci is pretty popular, presumably in large part due to his handling of disasters like the crash of the Polcevera highway bridge, and the polls consistently suggest he should have an easy time.

VERONA
Now this case is more unusual. Flavio Tosi, mayor from 2007 to 2017, is running against his successor Federico Sboarina (FdI). Tosi was originally a Lega member but he left and founded his own party called "Fare!" in 2015 - being barred from a third consecutive term five years ago, his then-fiancée and current wife ran instead but lost to Sboarina in the runoff. Now he's seeking a rematch of sorts and has the support of FI and IV in addition to that of his party, while Lega and FdI and most of the rest of the right wing are behind Sboarina. On the other side, the centre-left (plus A/+E) is running Damiano Tommasi, most famous as a football player for AS Roma and the national team two decades ago. Despite the split on the right, I would still bet on a Sboarina-Tommasi runoff - where the former would in theory be favourite but the bad blood between him and Tosi might cause strange things to happen - and the polls agree. But who knows...

MESSINA
Another less-than-straightforward situation. This early election - the current term originally expired in 2023 - was triggered by the resignation of mayor Cateno De Luca (independent) to run for president of Sicily, which I noted in a previous post. De Luca has an anointed successor in Federico Basile, general director of the municipality, who also conquered the support of Lega together with a slew of civic lists. FI, FdI and the rest of the centre-right are instead supporting Maurizio Croce, a former regional minister. The centre-left is united behind an ex regional councillor, Franco De Domenico. No polls here... but I'd put my money on Basile because of course.

PADUA
The incumbent mayor Sergio Giordani (csx independent) is running for re-election with the support of all the centre-left and also the centre. His main opponent for the centre-right is Francesco Peghin, local entrepreneur [insert "we saw how that went down in 2021!" quip here]. To be fair he is also a former sports champion like Tommasi, but in his case in sailing and therefore infinitely less famous. Either way, Giordani is reasonably popular and looks likely to be elected again.

PARMA
Forget about Verona or Messina, this is something else entirely. The incumbent Federico Pizzarotti (IiC) made headlines in 2012 for being the first M5S mayor elected in a city of significant size, but he left the party in 2016 and won a second term in 2017 running with his personal list. He also founded the party "Italia in Comune" in 2018, because this is Italy, which is meant to be a ~party of mayors~. In any case, he is not eligible this time, but he endorsed the PD candidate Michele Guerra, who is a member of the current administration. However, the centre-left is the opposite of unified: the Five Star Movement which obviously hates Pizzarotti is not running any list, while Green Europe is curiously going separately with biologist Enrico Ottolini, and there's also a dissident PD candidacy in Michela Canova. Azione is running yet another candidate in architect Dario Costi. And just to make things spicier, there is also a split in the centre-right: FI and Lega are running ex mayor Pietro Vignali, who resigned in 2011 due to accusations of corruption in his administration but was recently cleared and compensated for an investigation that had followed him for a decade, whereas FdI supports its local party leader Priamo Bocchi. All in all, though, it looks like Guerra and Vignali will be the only two strong contenders, and they'll play this out in a runoff.

TARANTO
Rinaldo Melucci (PD) was elected in 2017 but lost the confidence of the council and was forced to resign six months ago. However, he is running again for the centre-left. And if this seems odd, the centre-right candidate Walter Musillo was the provincial PD secretary and a Melucci ally until half a decade ago. There are just two minor candidates, but I'll name them for a certain reason. One, Massimo Battista, is a municipal councillor and a worker at the infamous local steelworks popularly known by their previous name of Ilva; the other, Luigi Abbate, is a journalist running for a civic list called "Taranto without I.L.V.A.". That story would deserve a separate and much bigger post, and with my current knowledge I could really only scratch the surface, so I'll leave it there.

---

I am not going to bother with smaller cities for now except to mention my own, La Spezia. Similarly to the regional seat of Genoa, we have an incumbent who was first elected in 2017 as the first centre-right mayor in a long time and who is running again (Pierluigi Peracchini) against a lawyer for the centre-left (Piera Sommovigo). In our case however Italia Viva is going alone (Antonella Franciosi) and Azione too (Andrea Buondonno). They're all lawyers lmao. There's also a fairly significant contingent of minor independents, although the total of 10 candidates is still smaller than five years ago when they were 12. I don't have much to say about Peracchini - I've generally liked all the new public projects in the last five years, most notably a park running along our old city walls, but those are often things that are conceived and happen across different administrations. Some of his proposals for his second term look bizarre or stupid to me, too. An important topic is what to do about our Enel power plant (once upon a time the second largest coal plant in Europe), which recently stopped burning coal, is still momentarily working as a gas plant, but there's a consensus to turn it into something else. I have a hunch that most candidates really have the same ideas (something something renewable energy something something keep collaborating with Enel) but use different words... and of course the State has the final say on most everything... but maybe I am cynical. Don't ask me how I am going to vote.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Estrella on May 29, 2022, 03:06:37 PM
Your previews are great! What's the situation in national politics right now? Has the Draghi government passed any major policies? Do they plan to stay on until the election next year?


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on May 30, 2022, 08:54:32 AM
Your previews are great! What's the situation in national politics right now? Has the Draghi government passed any major policies? Do they plan to stay on until the election next year?

Most major policies in recent times have been related to the war in Ukraine (humanitarian and military aid, energy subsidies etc.). The Cartabia reform on the judiciary, which may preempt or complement parts of the referenda, seems still in a process of revision, although the Senate will hold a vote in June. I don't see any real indication that the Draghi government intends to leave before the election next year, even though the majority is very shaky and basically always in conflict.

On a related note, the most recent major national news is that Matteo Salvini was planning a trip to Moscow (for vague peacemaking reasons?) but this was leaked and he decided to cancel everything. I can only say one thing about this: lol.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on May 31, 2022, 05:39:51 AM
For what it's worth, we have a few referendum polls and they suggest that a majority of voters would vote against the Severino law repeal and the limitations to preventive detention, but would vote in favour of the other three questions. However all of them also show the quorum of 50% turnout wouldn't be reached.

There's a nice Wikipedia table with party positions on the referenda that has M5S, PD (which however "leaves a free vote" rofl) and the far left officially against, and the liberals and the right officially for. However among the latter FdI isn't supporting the first two questions... incidentally the same ones which polls show people would vote against.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 02, 2022, 09:57:38 AM
I have some free time so I'll add some other significant cities to my preview.

MONZA: Incumbent Dario Allevi (FI) is running for re-election and has as his main opponent municipal councillor Paolo Pilotto, supported by all the centre-left including Azione and IV. Allevi won in a close runoff in 2017 - my completely unscientific guess is that things will be similar this year (there are tediously many minor candidates as well).

PIACENZA: Here is another centre-right incumbent running for re-election (Patrizia Barbieri) but an unusual split on the other side of the spectrum - PD, Art. 1 and Azione are supporting a different candidate (Katia Tarasconi) from M5S, EV and SI (Stefano Cugini). We have quite a few polls and the picture they paint is that Barbieri will easily top the poll in the first round but likely be forced to a runoff with Tarasconi, which may be pretty competitive.

BARLETTA: Election one year in advance, as the previous mayor Cosimo Cannito (cdx independent) was elected in 2018 but lost his majority last autumn. Cannito, unsurprisingly, is running again as the centre-right candidate. His opposition is very much not unified: the PD-led coalition is running the general director of the municipality Santa Scommegna, but here too the Five Stars are running a different candidate (Maria Angela Carone), and in one of the strangest alliances* of this round of locals there is another candidate (Carmine Doronzo) supported by IV and SI at the same time. I suspect much of that has to do with the various feuds regional president Emiliano has - indeed there are multiple civic lists supporting Scommegna which bear his name... In 2018 splintering and general disorganization on the left allowed Cannito to win in the first round. Will this happen again?

*Well... among larger cities and provincial seats at least. Apparently in the booming Rome suburb of Fonte Nuova (31k people) PD is supporting the incumbent FdI mayor lol.

CATANZARO: [I skipped a couple larger cities, but Catanzaro seems more important to me because it is a regional seat, and it also has one of the most interesting situations] With incumbent Sergio Abramo (Coraggio Italia) ineligible to run again after two terms - which were actually his third and fourth as he had already been mayor from 1997 to 2005 - the CDX has fractured away and possibly given some hope to the CSX in this city usually hostile to the left. While national Deputy (and former provincial president) Wanda Ferro is running for FdI and has the endorsement of Abramo, Lega and FI (and also IV and UdC) are bizarrely enough supporting law professor Valerio Donato, originally a centre-left man and a PD member until not long ago. One wonders... To make things stranger, there is a third candidate (Antonello Talerico) supported by Azione and various centre-centre-right groups. The centre-left's hopes are instead with Nicola Fiorita, already an independent candidate in 2017 when he had taken 23% of the votes. I won't hazard a prediction, but I want to feel confident about Fiorita.

L'AQUILA: The last regional seat voting this year. Incumbent Pierluigi Biondi (FdI) is running for re-election for the centre-right. The centre-left candidate from 2017, Americo Di Benedetto is also running again... but this time as an independent with the backing of A/+E. Di Benedetto by the way had almost won in the first round but then managed the humiliating the feat of seeing his vote share decrease in the runoff. The rest of the centre-left is instead supporting Deputy Stefania Pezzopane, also a former Senator and provincial president. Biondi will definitely win the most votes in the first round and may even get a majority and avoid a runoff (a poll commissioned by FdI says so)... but we'll see.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Flyersfan232 on June 03, 2022, 04:57:21 AM
I love all the drama in Italians politics.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 03, 2022, 07:11:59 AM
I love all the drama in Italians politics.

Speaking of drama, I just found out that Arturo Lorenzoni, ex deputy of Giordani in Padua (see a few posts above) isn't supporting him but endorsed instead Independent Francesca Gislon. Lorenzoni had been a mayoral candidate himself in 2017 and had helped Giordani win the runoff; he then became deputy mayor as I said until his hopeless and kind of sad run for regional president in 2020 following which he became a regional councillor. It appears that he didn't like being treated as a convenient sacrificial lamb in that occasion.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 11, 2022, 05:50:43 AM
Two candidates in lists supporting Roberto Lagalla in Palermo have been arrested for Mafia vote buying. I am shocked, SHOCKED I tell you.

In other news, I may have mentioned this already but I am a poll worker again this year, which may influence my ability to post here tomorrow (and to an extent on Monday).


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 12, 2022, 12:14:12 AM
Polls have officially opened! They will stay open until 23. I am in for a long day (as always).

Updates coming in later.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 12, 2022, 04:59:33 AM
I voted half an hour ago! I went with Sommovigo (centre-left) in the end and I voted No/No/Yes/Yes/Yes in the five referenda, if anyone is interested.

Turnout seems to be moderate... anyway we'll have the official nationwide reporting in a matter of minutes I think.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 12, 2022, 06:51:27 AM
Turnout at noon was 17.4% for local elections (not bad at all) but just between 5 and 6% for the referenda (remember that the clear majority of municipalities and people have no locals today), which means they are all going to fail.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Mike88 on June 12, 2022, 12:27:03 PM
Will ballots start to be counted after the 11pm poll closing, or will they do it "Irish style" and start counting only during tomorrow morning?


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 12, 2022, 12:54:14 PM
Will ballots start to be counted after the 11pm poll closing, or will they do it "Irish style" and start counting only during tomorrow morning?

Referendum ballots will start to be counted immediately after the polls close, while local election ballots will be counted tomorrow.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 12, 2022, 12:56:39 PM
Anyway, turnout at 19 was around 42% for local elections (meh or average) and a ridiculously low 11 to 12% for the referenda. Will this be the lowest turnout ever in an Italian referendum? The answer is likely yes.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 12, 2022, 04:05:50 PM
Polls have now officially closed! And I am about to count and count and count. The Yes/No splits of the referenda will surely be interesting, but they are all going to miss the quorum and by a lot so in a sense we already know what to expect.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: S019 on June 12, 2022, 04:24:23 PM
Whole bunch of exit polls on Rai, I regret not taking screens of them, but here they are:

Bucci (CDX) at 51-55% in Genova, Dello Strologo (CSX) 36-40%

40-44 Danato (FI+Lega) in Catanzaro, 31-35% Fiorita (CSX)

Bondi (CDX) 49-53% in A'Quila, Pezzopane (CSX) 23%-27%

Tomassi 37-41 (CSX) in Verona, Sboarina (Lega+Fratelli) 27-31 tied with Tosi 27-31 (Forza+some other right wing parties)

40-44 Guerra (CSX) in Parma, 19-23 Vignali (Lega+Forza)

Referendum 1 with Yes at 52-56

Ref 2 with Yes at 54-58

Ref 3 with Yes at 67-71

Ref 4 with Yes at 67-71

Ref 5 with Yes at 66-70

43-47 for Lagalla (CDX) in Palermo, 27-31% for Micelli (CSX)


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 12, 2022, 08:36:21 PM
We are almost finished counting... if my precinct is any indication the difference between the Yes percentage in the first two referenda and the Yes percentage in the other three is massive (just as polls said). Not that this matters at all of course.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 13, 2022, 06:06:52 AM
Good morning to the many people who are following this with me. In the end referendum turnout was around 20% (lowest ever indeed), while the total local elections turnout was around 55%, which seems to be five points less than five years ago (sigh) although the comparison isn't perfect since there are a fair few municipalities which voted this year but not in 2017 or vice versa.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 13, 2022, 08:07:59 AM
Wow, the referendum turnout is pathetic. I knew there was a chance of not meeting the quorum, but I was expecting at least a good 40% would at least bother to vote. Justice is traditionally a very politicized issue in Italy, and you'd expect at least core right wing voters to be hyped up about sticking it to those lefty judges. But nope, seems like nobody cared in the end. Oh well. I wasn't too invested in the outcome, but this is still bad for democracy.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Mike88 on June 13, 2022, 08:48:50 AM
Polls have now officially closed! And I am about to count and count and count. The Yes/No splits of the referenda will surely be interesting, but they are all going to miss the quorum and by a lot so in a sense we already know what to expect.

Were you a polling volunteer in this election?


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 13, 2022, 10:38:40 AM
Polls have now officially closed! And I am about to count and count and count. The Yes/No splits of the referenda will surely be interesting, but they are all going to miss the quorum and by a lot so in a sense we already know what to expect.

Were you a polling volunteer in this election?

Yes, I mentioned this in the previous page (and to be clear, we are paid volunteers).


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 13, 2022, 03:06:58 PM
I am basically finished counting for today as well. It looks like Peracchini will be re-elected in the first round (just like Bucci in Genoa). I can't say I am particularly sad, except for the additional compensation I would have taken as a poll worker in the runoff, nor am I surprised.

On a national level, the centre-left fragorously (but somewhat predictably) flopped in Palermo, but it is also posting a strong performance in Verona and has already regained the smaller city of Lodi in addition to keeping Padua and Taranto.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Mike88 on June 13, 2022, 05:16:11 PM
Polls have now officially closed! And I am about to count and count and count. The Yes/No splits of the referenda will surely be interesting, but they are all going to miss the quorum and by a lot so in a sense we already know what to expect.

Were you a polling volunteer in this election?

Yes, I mentioned this in the previous page (and to be clear, we are paid volunteers).

Ah, sorry, I must have spiked that info. Yes, I know it's paid volunteers, here they are paid around 52 euros, I presume that it's more in Italy.

The results seem to be as expected between the "center-left" and "center-right". No major changes, expect with the win of the right in Palermo. About the referendums, what was the point of them? I know they were about judicial changes, but was a referendum really necessary?


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 13, 2022, 05:34:28 PM
Polls have now officially closed! And I am about to count and count and count. The Yes/No splits of the referenda will surely be interesting, but they are all going to miss the quorum and by a lot so in a sense we already know what to expect.

Were you a polling volunteer in this election?

Yes, I mentioned this in the previous page (and to be clear, we are paid volunteers).

Ah, sorry, I must have spiked that info. Yes, I know it's paid volunteers, here they are paid around 52 euros, I presume that it's more in Italy.

The results seem to be as expected between the "center-left" and "center-right". No major changes, expect with the win of the right in Palermo. About the referendums, what was the point of them? I know they were about judicial changes, but was a referendum really necessary?

I should be paid 208 euros this year, so yes much more.

It is arguable whether the referenda were "really necessary" and indeed a good part of the centre-left opposition to the whole thing was that it overlapped with the Cartabia reform and made the latter harder to work about. But I did think they were good questions for the most part so why not?


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Mike88 on June 13, 2022, 05:50:23 PM
Polls have now officially closed! And I am about to count and count and count. The Yes/No splits of the referenda will surely be interesting, but they are all going to miss the quorum and by a lot so in a sense we already know what to expect.

Were you a polling volunteer in this election?

Yes, I mentioned this in the previous page (and to be clear, we are paid volunteers).

Ah, sorry, I must have spiked that info. Yes, I know it's paid volunteers, here they are paid around 52 euros, I presume that it's more in Italy.

The results seem to be as expected between the "center-left" and "center-right". No major changes, expect with the win of the right in Palermo. About the referendums, what was the point of them? I know they were about judicial changes, but was a referendum really necessary?

I should be paid 208 euros this year, so yes much more.

It is arguable whether the referenda were "really necessary" and indeed a good part of the centre-left opposition to the whole thing was that it overlapped with the Cartabia reform and made the latter harder to work about. But I did think they were good questions for the most part so why not?

208 euros?!? Wow!, if that was the case here, I would sign up to be a poll worker in every election. ;D

I believe that referendums should be held when there's a topic that really divides and could create big changes, and in even some cases, I also have doubts about it's effectiveness. But, it is what it is. Despite the dismal turnout, the changes will be implemented, right? Or there's any kind of threshold?


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 13, 2022, 06:02:07 PM
Polls have now officially closed! And I am about to count and count and count. The Yes/No splits of the referenda will surely be interesting, but they are all going to miss the quorum and by a lot so in a sense we already know what to expect.

Were you a polling volunteer in this election?

Yes, I mentioned this in the previous page (and to be clear, we are paid volunteers).

Ah, sorry, I must have spiked that info. Yes, I know it's paid volunteers, here they are paid around 52 euros, I presume that it's more in Italy.

The results seem to be as expected between the "center-left" and "center-right". No major changes, expect with the win of the right in Palermo. About the referendums, what was the point of them? I know they were about judicial changes, but was a referendum really necessary?

I should be paid 208 euros this year, so yes much more.

It is arguable whether the referenda were "really necessary" and indeed a good part of the centre-left opposition to the whole thing was that it overlapped with the Cartabia reform and made the latter harder to work about. But I did think they were good questions for the most part so why not?

208 euros?!? Wow!, if that was the case here, I would sign up to be a poll worker in every election. ;D

I believe that referendums should be held when there's a topic that really divides and could create big changes, and in even some cases, I also have doubts about it's effectiveness. But, it is what it is. Despite the dismal turnout, the changes will be implemented, right? Or there's any kind of threshold?

No, <50% turnout means the referendums are not valid.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: FrancoAgo on June 14, 2022, 07:40:11 AM
Like the 2021 i give some result
Mayoral elections, municipality over 100k inhab., and regional capitol

Catanzaro
Right (-FdI) 43,8%, to run-off (the man was a member of the PCI (communist party))
Center-left+M5S 31,9%, to run-off
Center-right dissident 13,2%
Right/FdI 9,2%
An other two candidates 1,9%

Genova
Right 55,5%, elected
Center-left+M5S 38%
Against Draghi coalition (minor left to right parties) 3,6%
An other four candidates 2,9%

L'Aquila
Right 54,4%, elected
Center-left dissident 23,8%
Center-left+M5S 20,6%
An other candidate 1,2%

Palermo (564/600)
Right 48%, elected, the regional law is different
Center-left+M5S 29,2%
Center/Liberal 14,2%
Left/PaP 4,3%
Anti-vax 3,2%
An other candidate 1,1%

Messina (168/253)
Local center+Lega 45,6%, elected as above
Right (- Lega) 27,5%
Center-left +M5S 23%
An other two candidates 3,9%

Monza
Right 47,1%, to run-off
Center-left 40,1%, to run-off
Local list 5,8%
An other six candidates 7%

Padova
Center-left+ M5S 58,4%, elected
Right 33,5%
An other seven candidates 8,1%

Parma
Center-left 44,2%, to run-off
Right (-FdI) 21,3%, to run-off
Local center-right 13,5%
Right/FdI 7,5%
Green 4,2%
Left/Pap+Commies 3,6%
Local center 2,7%
An other three candidates 3%

Piacenza
Center-left 39,9%, to run-off
Right 37,7%, to run-off
M5S+Left&Green 10,7%
local center-right 8,3%
An other two candidates 3,4%

Taranto
Center-left+M5S 60,6%, elected
Right 29,8%
Local list (centrist) 5,1%
Local list 4,4%

Verona
Center-left 39,8%, to run-off
Right (-FI) 32,7%, to run-off
Local centr-right+FI 23,9%
No-vax 2,6%
An other 2 candidates 2%






Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 15, 2022, 07:30:11 AM
Some comments on the first round results...

The left bombing in Palermo and Lagalla winning in the first round isn't quite what I expected but is also not terribly surprising given how unpopular Leoluca Orlando had become. Meanwhile Basile, the "De Luca continuity candidate", should win in Messina and that is exactly what I expected. Biondi's immediate re-election in L'Aquila also comes to no one's surprise but the fact that Di Benedetto came second again beating the "official centre-left" candidate is still notable and pretty embarrassing. The right also won in the first round in the two Ligurian cities - it is interesting how similar Bucci's and Peracchini's performances are to each other and to Toti's in 2020, although both did better than the latter considering much of Toti's margin came from traditionally right-wing areas in western Liguria and in the hinterland between GE and SP.

The centre-left had fewer first-round victories but being confirmed in Padua (pour one out for Lorenzoni) and Taranto is still significant. It also has quite a few important runoff opportunities - see below.

Parma will go to a runoff but Guerra's margin over Vignali is so large (and there were a number of votes going to minor left-wing candidates) that a centre-left win seems all but certain. Beating my expectations, the centre-left also starts ahead in Piacenza (strong pickup opportunity) and Verona (this depends a lot on what Tosi does). The centre-right is instead ahead with its incumbent in Monza and quasi-incumbent in Barletta, but both should be competitive, and it is notable that Cannito in the latter did much worse than in 2018. To conclude, I talked about centre-left hopes in Catanzaro but flip-flopper Donato getting 44% to Fiorita's 32% has probably dashed them in advance... meanwhile Ferro stopped at 9% despite Abramo's endorsement and FdI being on the upswing (the most hilarious bit is that the FdI list massively underperformed her mayoral result, only getting 5%).

In general, we see that the Democratic Party held up fairly well whereas the M5S did extremely poorly, often getting fewer votes than left-of-PD lists including EV or SI. On the other side, FdI overtook Lega almost everywhere including in the latter's Northern strongholds, while Forza Italia had occasional decent results but in most cases especially up North did terribly (here in La Spezia it managed to get fewer votes than the somehow-still-existing UDC, which amuses me to no end).


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 17, 2022, 04:42:04 AM
Update on Verona: Flavio Tosi just joined Forza Italia (lmao) and asked for an election agreement to have his lists linked to Sboarina for the runoff - this is an ordinary if somewhat uncommon procedure, called apparentamento - but Sboarina refused that while accepting the endorsement. I think this still makes Tommasi's path somewhat harder... but all is far from certain.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 21, 2022, 12:35:28 PM
Unrelated to the local elections but there is a Big F---ing Deal of an update - to quote the President of the USA - regarding the struggle between Di Maio and Conte within the M5S, which seems to have reached a bitter end. Luigi Di Maio is rumoured to be leaving the party soon and is collecting signatures for a new parliamentary group in both houses. Predictably figures who were once more relevant (Grillo, Di Battista) have come out to attack the decision. I don't really know what to say except that this is so painfully in character for the Five Stars Movement - I would point out that if this goes through they will manage the incredible feat of falling to second biggest party in Parliament after Lega (they started the legislature with almost twice the seats). Great job you idiots, never change.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: MRCVzla on June 21, 2022, 08:20:29 PM
Unrelated to the local elections but there is a Big F---ing Deal of an update - to quote the President of the USA - regarding the struggle between Di Maio and Conte within the M5S, which seems to have reached a bitter end. Luigi Di Maio is rumoured to be leaving the party soon and is collecting signatures for a new parliamentary group in both houses. Predictably figures who were once more relevant (Grillo, Di Battista) have come out to attack the decision. I don't really know what to say except that this is so painfully in character for the Five Stars Movement - I would point out that if this goes through they will manage the incredible feat of falling to second biggest party in Parliament after Lega (they started the legislature with almost twice the seats). Great job you idiots, never change.

And it's official, the M5S is a dying party. Di Maio has left the "MoVimento" and named his new group "Together for the Future" with a pro-NATO/pro-EU stance, around 50 deputies and 15 senators will form the respective parliamentary groups, leaving M5S with more than a half of the MPs who were elected in 2018 (Lega will be now the first minority group, at least in the "Camera"). Bloomberg reports rumours about what the Conte' remains of M5S may leave Draghi' national unity cabinet. Let's see...


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 26, 2022, 04:58:36 AM
Today is the day of the local election runoffs! Since La Spezia's mayor was elected in the first round, I can rest instead of working at the polls a second time. Updates coming later.

In other news, the first polls after the Di Maio split show Insieme per il Futuro getting a paltry 1% but also M5S slipping more and more. Opinions on the government and the general situation have also worsened, although honestly a President of the Council getting the approval of half the population still feels historic to me.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 26, 2022, 05:28:12 AM
And speaking of microparties, Brugnaro and Toti have split apart too, with Coraggio Italia (Brugnaro) and Italia al Centro (Toti) now forming separate parliamentary groups. Such are our politicians... I am sure we will enjoy a lot of renewed drama in the next year with the two of them, Calenda, Renzi, Di Maio, probably Carfagna even if she is still in FI, and maybe others too, trying to put together the much craved GREAT CENTRE and essentially jostling around with their egos.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Mike88 on June 26, 2022, 10:41:02 AM
Today is the day of the local election runoffs! Since La Spezia's mayor was elected in the first round, I can rest instead of working at the polls a second time. Updates coming later.

In other news, the first polls after the Di Maio split show Insieme per il Futuro getting a paltry 1% but also M5S slipping more and more. Opinions on the government and the general situation have also worsened, although honestly a President of the Council getting the approval of half the population still feels historic to me.

M5S is polling now bellow 10% for the first time since 2012. Draghi is clearly benefited for not belonging to any political party and for being above the complete mess of party politics. But, next year's elections are going to be... well... complicated. If Meloni comes out on top, I don't have any idea who could be Draghi's successor as the new President of the Council of Ministers.

Alongside M5S's colapse, Lega's downfall is also spectacular.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 26, 2022, 01:03:28 PM
Today is the day of the local election runoffs! Since La Spezia's mayor was elected in the first round, I can rest instead of working at the polls a second time. Updates coming later.

In other news, the first polls after the Di Maio split show Insieme per il Futuro getting a paltry 1% but also M5S slipping more and more. Opinions on the government and the general situation have also worsened, although honestly a President of the Council getting the approval of half the population still feels historic to me.

M5S is polling now bellow 10% for the first time since 2012. Draghi is clearly benefited for not belonging to any political party and for being above the complete mess of party politics. But, next year's elections are going to be... well... complicated. If Meloni comes out on top, I don't have any idea who could be Draghi's successor as the new President of the Council of Ministers.

Alongside M5S's colapse, Lega's downfall is also spectacular.

I mean, Meloni should be Draghi's successor in that case... unless the other parties on the right decide to break the alliance unconditionally, which still seems far-fetched.

Oh of course Lega's downfall is also spectacular (and hilarious)... but it's less catastrophic in many ways.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Andrea on June 26, 2022, 04:43:25 PM
Guerra easily winning in Parma. Currently at 65.71% with count almost half way.

Centre-left leading Piacenza 54 to 46%. 54 polling places reported out of 108.

Tommasi is leading in Verona with 54% with 111 polling places reported out of 265.

It seems centre-left is also leading in Catanzaro.

Lucca is tight so far.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Oryxslayer on June 26, 2022, 04:59:19 PM
Today is the day of the local election runoffs! Since La Spezia's mayor was elected in the first round, I can rest instead of working at the polls a second time. Updates coming later.

In other news, the first polls after the Di Maio split show Insieme per il Futuro getting a paltry 1% but also M5S slipping more and more. Opinions on the government and the general situation have also worsened, although honestly a President of the Council getting the approval of half the population still feels historic to me.

M5S is polling now bellow 10% for the first time since 2012. Draghi is clearly benefited for not belonging to any political party and for being above the complete mess of party politics. But, next year's elections are going to be... well... complicated. If Meloni comes out on top, I don't have any idea who could be Draghi's successor as the new President of the Council of Ministers.

Alongside M5S's colapse, Lega's downfall is also spectacular.

I mean, Meloni should be Draghi's successor in that case... unless the other parties on the right decide to break the alliance unconditionally, which still seems far-fetched.

Oh of course Lega's downfall is also spectacular (and hilarious)... but it's less catastrophic in many ways.

Why is Lega's decline funny? Their lost voters appear to be going 1:1 to FdI which: is another right-aligned party, will likely run together with Lega when the next general election occurs, and may not be that different from Lega besides geography of support.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Andrea on June 26, 2022, 05:00:45 PM
Tommasi has won in Verona

220 polling places out of 265

Tommasi 53.63%
Sboarina 46.37%


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Andrea on June 26, 2022, 05:18:22 PM
Other trends emerging

Alessandria, Cuneo, Carrara to CL

Frosinone, Barletta, Gorizia to CR

Monza is tight.

CR now leading in Lucca. Still tight.

Independent wins in Como.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 26, 2022, 05:38:33 PM
Today is the day of the local election runoffs! Since La Spezia's mayor was elected in the first round, I can rest instead of working at the polls a second time. Updates coming later.

In other news, the first polls after the Di Maio split show Insieme per il Futuro getting a paltry 1% but also M5S slipping more and more. Opinions on the government and the general situation have also worsened, although honestly a President of the Council getting the approval of half the population still feels historic to me.

M5S is polling now bellow 10% for the first time since 2012. Draghi is clearly benefited for not belonging to any political party and for being above the complete mess of party politics. But, next year's elections are going to be... well... complicated. If Meloni comes out on top, I don't have any idea who could be Draghi's successor as the new President of the Council of Ministers.

Alongside M5S's colapse, Lega's downfall is also spectacular.

I mean, Meloni should be Draghi's successor in that case... unless the other parties on the right decide to break the alliance unconditionally, which still seems far-fetched.

Oh of course Lega's downfall is also spectacular (and hilarious)... but it's less catastrophic in many ways.

Why is Lega's decline funny? Their lost voters appear to be going 1:1 to FdI which: is another right-aligned party, will likely run together with Lega when the next general election occurs, and may not be that different from Lega besides geography of support.

It is funny because it is a constant blow to Salvini's massive ego, because it is a party I don't like getting smashed, and because FdI is still marginally better.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 26, 2022, 05:52:54 PM
Anyway, it seems like the centre-left is having a great night (on reduced turnout - but that is sadly normal for our runoffs). Guerra is winning in a landslide in Parma, Tarasconi ahead in Parma, Tommasi has a solid lead in Verona and somehow even Fiorita in Catanzaro has scored a blowout. They're also ahead in Monza, and the centre-right looks like it is winning only smaller cities.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Andrea on June 26, 2022, 06:17:58 PM
Monza is going to centre-left, 51 to 49%
They never re-elected the incumbent since the introduction of directly elected mayors. And they continued the trend today.

Only centre-left disappointment seems to be Lucca.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Conservatopia on June 27, 2022, 07:03:52 AM
Ultimately Brugnaro will, I imagine, likely form a joint list with other nobodies (IDEA, UDC, Sgarbi) to create the fourth leg of CDX's stool (a la Fitto in '18) and Giovanni Toti will run with Renzi and possibly Calenda. I can't see an IV-IaC-Az list* having much more success than Monti did though unless Draghi inexplicably decided to run as head of the list.

* I wonder if it would have painful En Marche knockoff name like Avanti! or something...


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 27, 2022, 09:25:01 AM
So overall seems like a pretty disappointing day for the right and a surprisingly decent one for the left? Interesting. That would continue the trend of right-wing underperformance in local elections starting in 2020.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 27, 2022, 10:53:54 AM
Ultimately Brugnaro will, I imagine, likely form a joint list with other nobodies (IDEA, UDC, Sgarbi) to create the fourth leg of CDX's stool (a la Fitto in '18) and Giovanni Toti will run with Renzi and possibly Calenda. I can't see an IV-IaC-Az list* having much more success than Monti did though unless Draghi inexplicably decided to run as head of the list.

* I wonder if it would have painful En Marche knockoff name like Avanti! or something...

I would agree on the former but I am much less sure on the latter - especially about Calenda. And such a list would if anything have much less success than Monti did in all likelihood (double digits?? lol).

On the last point, Avanti! is of course the name of the historic PSI newspaper (often recycled for publications associated with the various ersatz microparties trying to carry on the PSI legacy afterwards, some of which are more right-wing than others) which makes its use pretty unlikely. But since Renzi clearly sees himself as the Italian Macron, who knows...


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 27, 2022, 11:12:04 AM
So overall seems like a pretty disappointing day for the right and a surprisingly decent one for the left? Interesting. That would continue the trend of right-wing underperformance in local elections starting in 2020.

The best part of the night was the "right-wing" candidate in Catanzaro losing vote share compared to two weeks ago and that in spite of the two significant candidates eliminated in the first round not being exactly raging leftists... perhaps next time Lega and Forza Italia will learn better than to run a university professor who was a card-carrying PD member until half a year before lol.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: FrancoAgo on June 28, 2022, 01:07:15 PM
Updated my results with the run-off results
Mayoral elections, municipality over 100k inhab., and regional capitol

Catanzaro
Right (-FdI) 43,8%, (the man was a member of the PCI (communist party))to run-off 41,8%
Center-left+M5S 31,9%, to run-off 58,2% elected
Center-right dissident 13,2%
Right/FdI 9,2%
An other two candidates 1,9%

Genova
Right 55,5%, elected
Center-left+M5S 38%
Against Draghi coalition (minor left to right parties) 3,6%
An other four candidates 2,9%

L'Aquila
Right 54,4%, elected
Center-left dissident 23,8%
Center-left+M5S 20,6%
An other candidate 1,2%

Palermo
Right 47,6%, elected, the regional law is different
Center-left+M5S 29,6%
Center/Liberal 14,2%
Left/PaP 4,4%
Anti-vax 3,1%
An other candidate 1,1%

Messina
Local center+Lega 45,5%, elected as above
Right (- Lega) 27,8%
Center-left +M5S 22,9%
An other two candidates 3,8%

Monza
Right 47,1%, to run-off 48,8%
Center-left 40,1%, to run-off 51,2% elected
Local list 5,8%
An other six candidates 7%

Padova
Center-left+ M5S 58,4%, elected
Right 33,5%
An other seven candidates 8,1%

Parma
Center-left 44,2%, to run-off 66,2% elected
Right (-FdI) 21,3%, to run-off 33,8%
Local center-right 13,5%
Right/FdI 7,5%
Green 4,2%
Left/Pap+Commies 3,6%
Local center 2,7%
An other three candidates 3%

Piacenza
Center-left 39,9%, to run-off 53,5% elected
Right 37,7%, to run-off 46,5%
M5S+Left&Green 10,7%
local center-right 8,3%
An other two candidates 3,4%

Taranto
Center-left+M5S 60,6%, elected
Right 29,8%
Local list (centrist) 5,1%
Local list 4,4%

Verona
Center-left 39,8%, to run-off 53,4% elected
Right (-FI) 32,7%, to run-off 46,6%
Local centr-right+FI 23,9%
No-vax 2,6%
An other 2 candidates 2%


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 29, 2022, 01:58:46 PM
I did not mention this but while the centre-left did pretty well overall last Sunday it also had its own Catanzaro-tier blunder in Barletta, with Santa Scommegna losing vote share (yes, her too) and Cosimo Cannito being re-elected in a landslide despite all the lists which had supported Carmine Doronzo in the first round - including IV, Az, SI, Italia in Comune - pairing themselves to Scommegna for the runoff.

Monza as mentioned flipped to the left (and so did Alessandria), while Lucca made the opposite journey. Como also elected a total independent (was governed by the CDX before).


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 02, 2022, 11:30:16 AM
The situation between Conte and Draghi has been tense ever since Di Maio left the M5S. The two are expected to meet next Monday but for now there is a lot of "unease" with accusations from the Five Stars that Draghi engineered the split and rumours about the party potentially leaving the government.

Relatedly, new polls have come out - some of them put IpF at significantly more than 1% (meaning 3-4%), while the long decline of the "populist" parties continues, with Lega hitting a new post-2018 low under 14% and a couple of outliers even showing M5S in single digits.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Mike88 on July 03, 2022, 05:40:56 PM
The situation between Conte and Draghi has been tense ever since Di Maio left the M5S. The two are expected to meet next Monday but for now there is a lot of "unease" with accusations from the Five Stars that Draghi engineered the split and rumours about the party potentially leaving the government.

Relatedly, new polls have come out - some of them put IpF at significantly more than 1% (meaning 3-4%), while the long decline of the "populist" parties continues, with Lega hitting a new post-2018 low under 14% and a couple of outliers even showing M5S in single digits.

Draghi would still have a comfortable majority if M5S leaves the government, but M5S seems like they are just at the verge of extinction. I wasn't aware that Di Maio was able to "steal" almost a third of the M5S to his new party. If somehow, M5S ceases to exist by the next election, who would benefit? Di Maio's party or PD? I'm probably gonna rule out Lega, Berlusconi and FdI as possible options for former M5S voters.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 04, 2022, 04:20:46 AM
The situation between Conte and Draghi has been tense ever since Di Maio left the M5S. The two are expected to meet next Monday but for now there is a lot of "unease" with accusations from the Five Stars that Draghi engineered the split and rumours about the party potentially leaving the government.

Relatedly, new polls have come out - some of them put IpF at significantly more than 1% (meaning 3-4%), while the long decline of the "populist" parties continues, with Lega hitting a new post-2018 low under 14% and a couple of outliers even showing M5S in single digits.

Draghi would still have a comfortable majority if M5S leaves the government, but M5S seems like they are just at the verge of extinction. I wasn't aware that Di Maio was able to "steal" almost a third of the M5S to his new party. If somehow, M5S ceases to exist by the next election, who would benefit? Di Maio's party or PD? I'm probably gonna rule out Lega, Berlusconi and FdI as possible options for former M5S voters.

Draghi would indeed have a solid majority regardless (and the M5S seems more interested in a position of external support/confidence and supply than full opposition) but it's clear that there would be some unwillingness to just carry on after such a major change in composition.

The M5S is in a rather damaged state but it's still not particularly close to being wiped out (and of course, Di Maio's strength in Parliament is not equal to his strength among the voters). If somehow it just disappeared before the next election I would expect everyone else's polling numbers to improve but with PD and perhaps IpF taking the lion's share... however that's more or less out of the question, unless a merge happened, which in turn only seems more and more unlikely given Conte's antics. I can see the party merely fading into irrelevance though.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on July 04, 2022, 05:43:49 AM
The situation between Conte and Draghi has been tense ever since Di Maio left the M5S. The two are expected to meet next Monday but for now there is a lot of "unease" with accusations from the Five Stars that Draghi engineered the split and rumours about the party potentially leaving the government.

Relatedly, new polls have come out - some of them put IpF at significantly more than 1% (meaning 3-4%), while the long decline of the "populist" parties continues, with Lega hitting a new post-2018 low under 14% and a couple of outliers even showing M5S in single digits.

Draghi would still have a comfortable majority if M5S leaves the government, but M5S seems like they are just at the verge of extinction. I wasn't aware that Di Maio was able to "steal" almost a third of the M5S to his new party. If somehow, M5S ceases to exist by the next election, who would benefit? Di Maio's party or PD? I'm probably gonna rule out Lega, Berlusconi and FdI as possible options for former M5S voters.

Draghi would indeed have a solid majority regardless (and the M5S seems more interested in a position of external support/confidence and supply than full opposition) but it's clear that there would be some unwillingness to just carry on after such a major change in composition.

The M5S is in a rather damaged state but it's still not particularly close to being wiped out (and of course, Di Maio's strength in Parliament is not equal to his strength among the voters). If somehow it just disappeared before the next election I would expect everyone else's polling numbers to improve but with PD and perhaps IpF taking the lion's share... however that's more or less out of the question, unless a merge happened, which in turn only seems more and more unlikely given Conte's antics. I can see the party merely fading into irrelevance though.
Could IpF just end up joining the centre-left?


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 04, 2022, 06:23:24 AM
The situation between Conte and Draghi has been tense ever since Di Maio left the M5S. The two are expected to meet next Monday but for now there is a lot of "unease" with accusations from the Five Stars that Draghi engineered the split and rumours about the party potentially leaving the government.

Relatedly, new polls have come out - some of them put IpF at significantly more than 1% (meaning 3-4%), while the long decline of the "populist" parties continues, with Lega hitting a new post-2018 low under 14% and a couple of outliers even showing M5S in single digits.

Draghi would still have a comfortable majority if M5S leaves the government, but M5S seems like they are just at the verge of extinction. I wasn't aware that Di Maio was able to "steal" almost a third of the M5S to his new party. If somehow, M5S ceases to exist by the next election, who would benefit? Di Maio's party or PD? I'm probably gonna rule out Lega, Berlusconi and FdI as possible options for former M5S voters.

Draghi would indeed have a solid majority regardless (and the M5S seems more interested in a position of external support/confidence and supply than full opposition) but it's clear that there would be some unwillingness to just carry on after such a major change in composition.

The M5S is in a rather damaged state but it's still not particularly close to being wiped out (and of course, Di Maio's strength in Parliament is not equal to his strength among the voters). If somehow it just disappeared before the next election I would expect everyone else's polling numbers to improve but with PD and perhaps IpF taking the lion's share... however that's more or less out of the question, unless a merge happened, which in turn only seems more and more unlikely given Conte's antics. I can see the party merely fading into irrelevance though.
Could IpF just end up joining the centre-left?

I'd be surprised if that didn’t happen, since I don't think Di Maio quite fits in with the shxtty liberal GREAT CENTRE gang (parts of which of course may end up joining the centre-left themselves) and running all alone would be quite the foolish endeavour.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: MRCVzla on July 05, 2022, 07:13:59 AM
To add another update to Di Maio' split, they finally formed the Senate group with the help of Tabacci' Centro Democratico with the minimum of 10 senators. By Italian Senate regulations, only lists/parties what participated in the last elections can form a group or a component within the Mixed group (the latter also applies in the Camera, with a mininum of 3 MPs), as already known Italia Viva group was formed thanks to the PSI, and recently, the other main M5S split in this legislature, left-wing Alternativa, formed its Senate group thanks to Italia dei Valori -member of the extinct Civica Popolare list- and the Partito Communista (ofc all his members were former M5S), also Paragone' Italexit formed a component within the Mixed group thanks to the minor Human Value Party...

In other news, a little bit under the radar but last weekend was officially announced the common list between Sinistra Italiana and Europa Verde for the 2023 election, the name of the left-green list is "Nuove Energie" (New Energies) and is nicknamed as "the watermelon" (green outside, red inside). They commisioned an internal poll about its potential electorate, the core group is at 4% (the current combined polling between SI and EV) with a maximum potential of 13% (very very unlikely). Termometro Politico has several months already polling this common list and currently is below the 3% Rosatellum PR threshold.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 05, 2022, 08:54:36 AM
In other news, a little bit under the radar but last weekend was officially announced the common list between Sinistra Italiana and Europa Verde for the 2023 election, the name of the left-green list is "Nuove Energie" (New Energies) and is nicknamed as "the watermelon" (green outside, red inside).

SI and EV joining forces is a good development but geezum crow couldn't they pick a normal name like Sinistra Verde? This trend in Italian politics fills me with bafflement. Then again, I voted for their common list called LeAli a Spezia [pun meaning both "loyal to Spezia" and "wings for Spezia"] in the mayoral election last month, so who am I to talk.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 05, 2022, 09:01:30 AM
In other news, yesterday Draghi had to go visit an area of the Dolomites where a glacier collapsed and tragically killed at least half a dozen people, so his meeting with Conte has been postponed to tomorrow [other things have undergone a change of schedule too, like the next council of ministers or the next national council of the M5S].


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 07, 2022, 07:00:39 PM
The result of the meeting between Conte and Draghi was essentially that Conte presented a document with nine fundamental points representing the M5S's priorities [such as keeping the citizenship income intact, introduction of a minimum wage, a new better version of the controversial superbonus for buildings efficiency improvements, opposition to new big investments in fossil fuels etc.] and asked for "answers within the end of July". In the next few days the Senate will vote on converting into law the decree with the big aid package for the Ukraine crisis, and the government will test its parliamentary confidence on it; the M5S should vote in favour as it did in the first Chamber reading, but things are still tense.


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 11, 2022, 04:19:53 PM
The result of the meeting between Conte and Draghi was essentially that Conte presented a document with nine fundamental points representing the M5S's priorities [such as keeping the citizenship income intact, introduction of a minimum wage, a new better version of the controversial superbonus for buildings efficiency improvements, opposition to new big investments in fossil fuels etc.] and asked for "answers within the end of July". In the next few days the Senate will vote on converting into law the decree with the big aid package for the Ukraine crisis, and the government will test its parliamentary confidence on it; the M5S should vote in favour as it did in the first Chamber reading, but things are still tense.

Well, there was a second Chamber vote today and the M5S abstained. That prompted Draghi to go to the Quirinale Palace - he did not resign of course, just had a meeting with Mattarella about the general situation the details of which have not been released, but this further shows the tense atmosphere that is in Rome right now. On to the Senate vote I guess?


Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: MRCVzla on July 13, 2022, 11:20:47 AM
Well, the Government Crisis atmosphere is being real this time, and all depends on the Senate vote for the "DL Aiuti" (the defacto confidence vote on the government), rumors says what M5S will vote against, if this happens, seems game over (for real) for this legislature. Draghi dares to resign if this happens bc he not see his cabinet without M5S, Salvini says if M5S votes against, the Lega also will dropout the government and we go to snap elections, also Letta says if M5S is out this will mean go the polls as the most logical choice.

There will be a meeting of M5S MPs in the next hours to define what will vote. Conte has called Draghi to accord another meeting soon over the issue.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.




Title: Re: Italian Local Elections - 06/12-06/26
Post by: Mike88 on July 13, 2022, 05:15:28 PM
There will be a meeting of M5S MPs in the next hours to define what will vote. Conte has called Draghi to accord another meeting soon over the issue.

M5S has decided to not take part in the vote.  (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italys-government-faces-collapse-if-5-star-pulls-out-2022-07-13/)According to the report, Draghi has said he will quit if M5S walks out from government and other coalition parties are aligning in the same line. However, Conte is open for more talks with Draghi, but no response has come yet from him.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 14, 2022, 03:22:42 AM
New political sequence, new title. As often happens in Italian politics, things have escalated quickly. Having elections now sure would be an interesting turn of things, or in other words a massive sh*tshow. We'll see if Conte is bluffing but he might actually be deluded enough to think it's a good idea.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 14, 2022, 04:58:43 AM
New political sequence, new title. As often happens in Italian politics, things have escalated quickly. Having elections now sure would be an interesting turn of things, or in other words a massive sh*tshow. We'll see if Conte is bluffing but he might actually be deluded enough to think it's a good idea.

I think if the M5S just abstains then we will have another round of grumbles and agony probably not amounting to anything in the end, but I may be horribly wrong. Having elections now would also be incredibly stupid for most of the parties, but of course they only have themselves to blame for not changing the electoral law earlier. Nice pun, by the way.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: MRCVzla on July 14, 2022, 10:40:21 AM
DL Aiuti (voted as confidence vote to the govt.) was approved 172 for and 39 against with the M5S didn't vote as announced. That didn't stop Draghi to cancel today's Council of Ministers and going to the  Qurinale anyway. Likely resignment?

According internal sources, in the yesterday' call between Conte and Draghi, the M5S leader asked the PM for help with the internal discontent in the party, but Draghi replied a la "that's not my problem".

In the case if they we going first to consultation round, some analysts and politicians like De Alema are trying to invoke the "ipotesi Amato", in reference to call the former PM and current President of the Constitutional Court Giuliano Amato to be nominated as interim PM (like happened in 1992 or 2000) for what remains to the legislature or until snap elections.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 14, 2022, 10:53:58 AM
172 votes are actually more than enough for a majority, so I'm not sure what the fretting is all about. Just kick M5S out and carry on.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: jaichind on July 14, 2022, 11:52:27 AM
Draghi Says He Will Resign


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 14, 2022, 12:17:36 PM
In the case if they we going first to consultation round, some analysts and politicians like De Alema are trying to invoke the "ipotesi Amato", in reference to call the former PM and current President of the Constitutional Court Giuliano Amato to be nominated as interim PM (like happened in 1992 or 2000) for what remains to the legislature or until snap elections.

An Amato III government would be so absurd, so logic-defying, so ridiculously "digging up political fossils" that it is probably exactly what Italy deserves (and would give the parties time to write a new electoral law and pass a budget and whatever else). Obviously I am not surprised that it was Massimo D'Alema to reportedly come up with this big-brained idea, it's what he does best.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 14, 2022, 12:20:20 PM
172 votes are actually more than enough for a majority, so I'm not sure what the fretting is all about. Just kick M5S out and carry on.

Mattarella can definitely refuse the resignation for that reason... but we have to see whether the rest of the majority is going to crumble apart afterwards.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: jaichind on July 14, 2022, 12:55:51 PM
Italian President Sergio Mattarella rejected a resignation offer from Prime Minister Mario Draghi, according to a statement from the head of state’s office.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 14, 2022, 01:36:18 PM
It sounds like Draghi really wants out regardless, even though he could go on without M5S. Tbh, he seems to have gotten sick of the job after he failed to be elected President last Winter, and might have been looking for an excuse to ride off into the sunset. Still though, that's a pretty awful time to do it, and I'd much rather he stay on (although admittedly giving Salvini control over when the next elections happen would be its own can of worms).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 14, 2022, 02:54:18 PM
It sounds like Draghi really wants out regardless, even though he could go on without M5S. Tbh, he seems to have gotten sick of the job after he failed to be elected President last Winter, and might have been looking for an excuse to ride off into the sunset. Still though, that's a pretty awful time to do it, and I'd much rather he stay on (although admittedly giving Salvini control over when the next elections happen would be its own can of worms).

What control would Salvini have? It's not like he can keep propping up Draghi but then pull the plug in the middle of budget negotiations, and I don't think it would make much difference to vote in January 2023 or March 2023.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 14, 2022, 03:15:44 PM
It sounds like Draghi really wants out regardless, even though he could go on without M5S. Tbh, he seems to have gotten sick of the job after he failed to be elected President last Winter, and might have been looking for an excuse to ride off into the sunset. Still though, that's a pretty awful time to do it, and I'd much rather he stay on (although admittedly giving Salvini control over when the next elections happen would be its own can of worms).

What control would Salvini have? It's not like he can keep propping up Draghi but then pull the plug in the middle of budget negotiations, and I don't think it would make much difference to vote in January 2023 or March 2023.

I mean it would be a silly thing to do, but you never know with these people. Either way, it doesn't seem like Draghi is interested in exploring the option.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Mike88 on July 14, 2022, 04:51:51 PM
It sounds like Draghi really wants out regardless, even though he could go on without M5S. Tbh, he seems to have gotten sick of the job after he failed to be elected President last Winter, and might have been looking for an excuse to ride off into the sunset. Still though, that's a pretty awful time to do it, and I'd much rather he stay on (although admittedly giving Salvini control over when the next elections happen would be its own can of worms).

What control would Salvini have? It's not like he can keep propping up Draghi but then pull the plug in the middle of budget negotiations, and I don't think it would make much difference to vote in January 2023 or March 2023.

If Draghi does resign and Parliament is dissolved during this month, the general election will only happen in January next year? Isn't that too late?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: FrancoAgo on July 14, 2022, 05:55:35 PM
no over 70 day from the dissolution, but i've many doubt they dissolve the parliament this month, the use it's try to form a government so we lost some time, weeks


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: bore on July 14, 2022, 06:25:29 PM
The myth of "consensual" resignation

M5S: I consent
Mario Draghi: I consent
Sergio Mattarella: I don't

Isn't there someone you forgot to ask?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 14, 2022, 07:30:18 PM
It sounds like Draghi really wants out regardless, even though he could go on without M5S. Tbh, he seems to have gotten sick of the job after he failed to be elected President last Winter, and might have been looking for an excuse to ride off into the sunset. Still though, that's a pretty awful time to do it, and I'd much rather he stay on (although admittedly giving Salvini control over when the next elections happen would be its own can of worms).

What control would Salvini have? It's not like he can keep propping up Draghi but then pull the plug in the middle of budget negotiations, and I don't think it would make much difference to vote in January 2023 or March 2023.

If Draghi does resign and Parliament is dissolved during this month, the general election will only happen in January next year? Isn't that too late?

No, we were talking about the scenario where Draghi does not resign and Parliament isn't dissolved during this month.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: jaichind on July 15, 2022, 11:57:19 AM
Bloomberg reports: Mario Draghi has signaled that he’s determined to resign as Italy’s prime minister next week since he doesn’t have the backing of all the parties in his splintered governing alliance, according to people familiar with the matter. 


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: PetrSokol on July 16, 2022, 12:46:28 PM
Is there any chance that Draghi will in the next elections? Is he thinking about a new party?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 16, 2022, 02:40:08 PM
Is there any chance that Draghi will in the next elections? Is he thinking about a new party?

He'd be lucky to do as well as Monti and Dini when they tried that.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: FrancoAgo on July 16, 2022, 05:22:02 PM
a Draghi party would be only to help the right to win


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: jaichind on July 17, 2022, 07:35:03 PM
Bloomberg : "In a joint statement following a meeting in Sardinia, Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi ruled out the possibility of the two right-center-parties remaining in the governing coalition, which included the Five Star Movement."


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Mike88 on July 17, 2022, 07:41:00 PM
Bloomberg : "In a joint statement following a meeting in Sardinia, Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi ruled out the possibility of the two right-center-parties remaining in the governing coalition, which included the Five Star Movement."

So, it's over. Snap election during October are almost certain.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 19, 2022, 12:33:36 PM
Draghi met Letta at Palazzo Chigi today before going to the Quirinale. I am not sure what they discussed but the meeting was criticized by the centre-right side of the government - precisely Berlusconi, Salvini and Cesa (UdC) who were together for lunch in the Alban Hills at one of Silvio's villas. Naturally Meloni was elsewhere, and it is clear that she is distrustful of what should be her "allies".

Bloomberg : "In a joint statement following a meeting in Sardinia, Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi ruled out the possibility of the two right-center-parties remaining in the governing coalition, which included the Five Star Movement."

So, it's over. Snap election during October are almost certain.

This is not true (yet). Salvini and Berlusconi rejected the possibility of remaining in government with the M5S, but not of staying in more generally. Of course they would be happy with new elections (especially Salvini), but they are also facing significant internal resistance - for example Veneto governor Luca Zaia unsurprisingly pledged "firm and resolute" support for Draghi.*

*On this note it would be very funny if Zaia and the "institutionalists" finally couped Salvini... but this is still not in the cards for now.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: jaichind on July 20, 2022, 12:14:57 PM
Bloomberg: 

Italy Coalition on Cusp of Collapse as Parties Don’t Back Draghi

"The center-right League party indicated on Wednesday that it will join Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia in skipping a confidence vote over Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government, raising the prospect the government will collapse and of snap elections as soon as the fall."


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 20, 2022, 12:37:02 PM
Yep, it's over.

No one wants to be responsible for the fall of the government, but everyone (except PD, IV etc.) has basically made it clear they're not available to continue on. Including Draghi, who imposed very harsh conditions on M5S and also Lega to come back to the fold. Honestly good on him, I respect him saying "this is my agenda, take it or leave it" rather than desperately trying to woo everyone off. I still think this is a terrible time to have a caretaker government, but oh well. Democracy is messy and I'm glad we're still one.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 20, 2022, 03:51:31 PM
The Senate confirmed its confidence to Draghi, but FI and Lega skipped the vote and M5S abstained, so the result was pretty pathetic. Draghi is expected to resign tomorrow after the confidence vote in the Chamber.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 20, 2022, 03:54:10 PM
The Senate confirmed its confidence to Draghi, but FI and Lega skipped the vote and M5S abstained, so the result was pretty pathetic. Draghi is expected to resign tomorrow after the confidence vote in the Chamber.

And Mattarella will most likely call for new elections to be held on October 2.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2022, 05:11:24 AM
Draghi resignation accepted


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2022, 05:12:58 AM
The right wing parties got what they wanted: an early election but with 5 Star taking the blame for the fall of the current government


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Mike88 on July 21, 2022, 06:15:11 AM
The Italian government colapses on the same day the ECB plans to increase interest rates by more than expected. Plus, 10 year bonds for southern european countries are already surging: Italy at 3.63%, Greece at 3.61%, Spain at 2.52% and Portugal at 2.46%.

This is going to be very complicated, because polls don't predict a stable or clear outcome at all.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2022, 07:06:26 AM
The ECB is in a very difficult situation.  Raise rates to stop price surge means the Italian bond market might be in real big trouble since the Italian bond spreads already surged on political turmoil.  ECB has a "tool" to contain the Italian bond spreads from rising too much but it is just de facto QE which defeats the point of rate increases.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Logical on July 21, 2022, 08:57:14 AM
Reducing the number of Italian MPs is a crime against comedy. The next parliament could hardly dream of being as chaotic and entertaining as this one.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: MRCVzla on July 21, 2022, 10:58:44 AM
Snap elections could be held most likely... not in October 2th, but on September either the 18th or 25th. On 25th is Jewish' New Year but the italian jewish community don't see a problem to the election being held that day. Right now at the Quirinale are Fico and Casellati along with President Mattarella to being agree on a election day. Draghi is (at the moment of redact this) going to Quirinale to sign the decree about the dissolution of the parliament (activation of the Art. 88 of Italian Constitution) and in the next hours we know the the definitive election day.

Many consecuences about the fall of the government and the snap election. Letta has announced that the PD-M5S coalition it's over, seems a little bit suicidal as we are going into election with the (adapted) Rosatellum electoral law, and some projections with this scenario shows the centre-right having super majority of 2/3 of the seats in both chambers... unless the centrist bloc (Azione/+Europa, Italia Viva) or PD itself concentrates the so called "Draghi vote" (people anger of the govt. fall, likely former M5S or FI voters).

Speaking of the centrist bloc, FI longtime ranks and ministers Mariastella Gelmini and Renato Brunetta are anounced to left the party and are most likely joining Azione, also FI senator Andrea Cangemi who was one of the few centre-right senators to vote yesterday for the confidence against the party line also left the party.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2022, 11:10:32 AM
Bloomberg reports that Italy Set to Hold Early Elections on September 25


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: MRCVzla on July 21, 2022, 12:06:08 PM
It's official, Parliament dissolved, Snap elections on September 25
"Important" dates:
August 12-14: Deposit of Electoral symbols (parties/lists to will run) at the Viminale (Interior ministry)
August 21-22: Deadline to present electoral lists/FPTP candidates
September 10: Deadline to publish opinion polls (poll ban)
October 28 or later (likely): New government will be formed.

Electoral system: Rosatellum (modified per reduction of MPs); Chamber: 245 PR, 147 FPTP, 8 Abroad; Senate: 122 PR, 74 FPTP, 4 Abroad (1 per each constituency); PR thresholds: 10% per coalitions, 3% per party list (1% to be included in the PR distribution), Linguistic minorites threshold (SVP in Trentino-Alto Adige/South Tyrol) is 20% to be included in Chamber' PR distribution (in Senate, the South Tyrol will only elect by their 6 fixed FPTP seats)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Oryxslayer on July 21, 2022, 12:10:36 PM
So unless something changes, the reconstituted Conservative alliance is likely going to end up make Meloni PM...right? Yuck.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2022, 12:24:35 PM
So unless something changes, the reconstituted Conservative alliance is likely going to end up make Meloni PM...right? Yuck.

I assume the Right-wing alliance of Fdl Lega and FI will have a deal where the leader of the largest of the 3 becomes PM.  If so I wonder if both Fdl and Lega might de facto undermine each other during the campaign and the voting in a race to be the bigger party.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Oryxslayer on July 21, 2022, 12:40:31 PM
So unless something changes, the reconstituted Conservative alliance is likely going to end up make Meloni PM...right? Yuck.

I assume the Right-wing alliance of Fdl Lega and FI will have a deal where the leader of the largest of the 3 becomes PM.  If so I wonder if both Fdl and Lega might de facto undermine each other during the campaign and the voting in a race to be the bigger party.

They had that sort of deal in 2018, and it was a complete upset that Lega topped the alliance: polling for months had FI up by 2-4 points and the final result flipped that margin in favor of Salvini. I don't exactly remember how the alliance members treated each other, but the Right-wing did win that election, it just broke up following the populist surge to give the people the coalition it appeared they wanted.

But if PD and M5S are gonna run separately then I have a hard time seeing the Right-wing parties not get a large majority. Both former govvernment partners have enough of a base to prevent total tactical voting consolidation during the next few months. Maybe the major narrative will focus on who will be in the conservative  government and who leads it if victory seems assured though.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 21, 2022, 02:11:11 PM
Average of the polls conducted in the past week:
FdI 22.8%
PD 22.2%
Lega 14.6%
M5S 11.0%
FI 8.2%
+E/Azione 4.6%
Misc. left of PD 4.4%
IV 2.6%
Italexit (lol) 2.4%

So yeah. On those numbers a united right is at 45.6%, enough to win a comfortable majority even if there's some degree of consolidation. Of course it's not necessarily impossible to bring it down - especially as they're catching a lot of flak for their role in torpedoing Draghi in this final act. We'll see how it plays out, but this is the election that should make you nervous if you care about the future of the EU and NATO.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2022, 02:50:08 PM
Any news on what alliances will look like outside the Right win alliance? Will  IpF run with anyone?  What about the various PD splinters?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 21, 2022, 02:54:08 PM
Any news on what alliances will look like outside the Right win alliance? Will  IpF run with anyone?  What about the various PD splinters?

No, but we'll probably find out pretty soon, given the relatively short filing deadlines.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: TiltsAreUnderrated on July 21, 2022, 04:15:16 PM
This will be the first GE after the expiration of Berlusconi’s public office ban.

Meloni’s party will probably do best, but once the results are in, the deals are being made and the regular instability of Italian politics is threatening new governments, he could get much leverage out of what is set to be a small Forza Italia group.

Don’t sleep on the corrupt king!


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 21, 2022, 04:48:08 PM
This will be the first GE after the expiration of Berlusconi’s public office ban.

Meloni’s party will probably do best, but once the results are in, the deals are being made and the regular instability of Italian politics is threatening new governments, he could get much leverage out of what is set to be a small Forza Italia group.

Don’t sleep on the corrupt king!

Paradoxically then, he wouldn't want his coalition to do too well - otherwise Lega and FdI might have a majority on their own (nightmare scenario, but sadly plausible). So that might lead to some fun, er, teamwork depending on how the polls look.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Mike88 on July 21, 2022, 05:40:06 PM
This will be the first GE after the expiration of Berlusconi’s public office ban.

Meloni’s party will probably do best, but once the results are in, the deals are being made and the regular instability of Italian politics is threatening new governments, he could get much leverage out of what is set to be a small Forza Italia group.

Don’t sleep on the corrupt king!

Paradoxically then, he wouldn't want his coalition to do too well - otherwise Lega and FdI might have a majority on their own (nightmare scenario, but sadly plausible). So that might lead to some fun, er, teamwork depending on how the polls look.

Time to remember this: Lady's and Gentleman, I give you Giorgia Meloni.




Io Sono Giorgia, Sono una donna, sono una madre, sono una cristiana.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: crals on July 21, 2022, 06:00:21 PM
Average of the polls conducted in the past week:
FdI 22.8%
PD 22.2%
Lega 14.6%
M5S 11.0%
FI 8.2%
+E/Azione 4.6%
Misc. left of PD 4.4%
IV 2.6%
Italexit (lol) 2.4%

So yeah. On those numbers a united right is at 45.6%, enough to win a comfortable majority even if there's some degree of consolidation. Of course it's not necessarily impossible to bring it down - especially as they're catching a lot of flak for their role in torpedoing Draghi in this final act. We'll see how it plays out, but this is the election that should make you nervous if you care about the future of the EU and NATO.
Di Maio nowhere to be seen?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 21, 2022, 06:03:08 PM
Average of the polls conducted in the past week:
FdI 22.8%
PD 22.2%
Lega 14.6%
M5S 11.0%
FI 8.2%
+E/Azione 4.6%
Misc. left of PD 4.4%
IV 2.6%
Italexit (lol) 2.4%

So yeah. On those numbers a united right is at 45.6%, enough to win a comfortable majority even if there's some degree of consolidation. Of course it's not necessarily impossible to bring it down - especially as they're catching a lot of flak for their role in torpedoing Draghi in this final act. We'll see how it plays out, but this is the election that should make you nervous if you care about the future of the EU and NATO.
Di Maio nowhere to be seen?

Di Maio too small and polled inconsistently.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Mike88 on July 21, 2022, 06:05:03 PM
Average of the polls conducted in the past week:
FdI 22.8%
PD 22.2%
Lega 14.6%
M5S 11.0%
FI 8.2%
+E/Azione 4.6%
Misc. left of PD 4.4%
IV 2.6%
Italexit (lol) 2.4%

So yeah. On those numbers a united right is at 45.6%, enough to win a comfortable majority even if there's some degree of consolidation. Of course it's not necessarily impossible to bring it down - especially as they're catching a lot of flak for their role in torpedoing Draghi in this final act. We'll see how it plays out, but this is the election that should make you nervous if you care about the future of the EU and NATO.
Di Maio nowhere to be seen?

The last poll that showed numbers for his party, only gave him 1.6%. In other polls, his numbers may be so small that he fits in the "Other parties" category. I don't think he has a lot, or any at all, political strength in order to lead a successful campaign.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 21, 2022, 06:10:12 PM
I think a "comfortable" right-wing majority is the most likely outcome, but of course many things can still happen. I've also seen some people talk about a "supermajority", which I don't quite comprehend and is probably indicative of a misunderstanding of how constitutional revision in Italy works... in any case I don't expect the CDX to exceed 60%.

I am very sad about the timing of this election. I broke the timeline - first parliamentary election I am eligible for, first one in the second half of the year since the Republic. I also may not seek to be a poll worker this time around (and I still haven't seen the money from June lol).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Coldstream on July 21, 2022, 06:30:32 PM
Salvini must resent the way that Meloni has supplanted him as the far right leader, perhaps the best hope for Italian Democracy is that this divide can be manipulated somehow.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Mike88 on July 21, 2022, 06:42:35 PM
I think a "comfortable" right-wing majority is the most likely outcome, but of course many things can still happen. I've also seen some people talk about a "supermajority", which I don't quite comprehend and is probably indicative of a misunderstanding of how constitutional revision in Italy works... in any case I don't expect the CDX to exceed 60%.

I am very sad about the timing of this election. I broke the timeline - first parliamentary election I am eligible for, first one in the second half of the year since the Republic. I also may not seek to be a poll worker this time around (and I still haven't seen the money from June lol).

I also agree that the rightwing will win, and FdI will probably be the largest party, but I'm not sure it will be a stable solution. Meloni and Salvini don't get along that easily now, right? Specially since FdI surpassed Lega in the polls, and Lega crashed like a comet entering the atmosphere. We'll see. Don't feel bad about being a poll worker, here in Portugal, several poll workers haven't received their money yet, and the elections were in January xD.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on July 21, 2022, 06:45:05 PM
Salvini must resent the way that Meloni has supplanted him as the far right leader, perhaps the best hope for Italian Democracy is that this divide can be manipulated somehow.

I only really have a rudimentary understanding of Italian politics, but what is the difference between the Brothers of Italy and the League? Does Italy really need two major far-right parties?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Oryxslayer on July 21, 2022, 06:45:55 PM
This will be the first GE after the expiration of Berlusconi’s public office ban.

Meloni’s party will probably do best, but once the results are in, the deals are being made and the regular instability of Italian politics is threatening new governments, he could get much leverage out of what is set to be a small Forza Italia group.

Don’t sleep on the corrupt king!

To this end, I wonder if it is Berlusconi's or FI's interests to join an alliance with Lega and FdI. Obviously their action at the confidence vote doesn't suggest it is likely, but the poor yet stable state of FI polling compared to their Right-wing partners suggest that there is a constituency who are explicitly not opting to leave FI. The maximum political advantage might be gained by running separate of the populists (but maybe with some of the minors) on a "both sides/reasonable right" platform that wins votes separate of the bigger coalition but gains the leverage to squeeze them at the negotiating table.

Or maybe this is the exactly wrong take to have, and running alone will cause the remaining FI voters to flee in response to the fear of a wasted vote. We'll see what happens when the lists get registered.

Salvini must resent the way that Meloni has supplanted him as the far right leader, perhaps the best hope for Italian Democracy is that this divide can be manipulated somehow.

I only really have a rudimentary understanding of Italian politics, but what is the difference between the Brothers of Italy and the League? Does Italy really need two major far-right parties?

Different backgrounds and approaches.

Lega was at one time the Northern League, a separatist/regionalist party for the economically advantaged north. This meant that the people who have long had a pro-League voting habit were all in the North. Salvini took over a party in disarray and declining identity in 2013 and reoriented it towards the cultural Far Right. He changed the name and revived it's fortunes, but most of their voters were still northerners.

During Conte I government, Salvini was the tail that wagged the M5S dog. Lega surged, eating up a chunk of the FI vote and a larger portion of the M5S vote. These were southern voters checking out an unfamiliar party that was saying the right stuff. We saw this to a degree in the EU elections with Lega winning almost 35% on its own and pushing down the peninsula geographically.

FdI has until now been a minor party. They have a reputation as 'nostalgic fascists' similar to VOX in Spain mainly because the party has not been big enough previously to define itself other than by its small cadre of voters and its predecessors. It was founded as a split from Forza and a merger with the old National Conservative AN (Alleanza Nazionale), so that influences so of its programs. FdI and the national conservative predecessors historically had a base in central Italy when compared to other conservative parties. Meloni is certainly more vocally culturally conservative on non-immigration issues than her allies.

FdI has remained in opposition during the entire 2018-2022 period, despite the populist Conte I government and the Draghi Grand Coalition. This made it attractive as Salvini fell out of favor and lost his southern vote, and then as the other Conservative parties entered the grand coalition. Those who were never quite at home with Lega but want a rightward turn - including the geographic element -  have now gone FdI.

Also Salvini, like Zemmour in France, wasn't painted in the best light following Putin's invasion of Ukraine, whereas FdI appears to have navigated that issue similar to Le Pen. But that is just one cause of many behind the evolution of the conservative vote.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2022, 06:47:41 PM
Maybe Salvini and Meloni can work out a deal where they rotate the PM role with each getting 2.5 years of a 5 years term.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 21, 2022, 06:51:31 PM
Italy is one of those countries in which public opinion is now apt to shift quite radically over the course of a campaign: for instance the last election was assumed to be an easy victory for the Right coalition and it was assumed that the PD would not collapse catastrophically in the South. However.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 21, 2022, 07:04:09 PM
Salvini must resent the way that Meloni has supplanted him as the far right leader, perhaps the best hope for Italian Democracy is that this divide can be manipulated somehow.

I only really have a rudimentary understanding of Italian politics, but what is the difference between the Brothers of Italy and the League? Does Italy really need two major far-right parties?

There are many posts on this thread about this, but I also understand they're hard to dig up immediately so I'll sum it up by saying that they exist separately because they have completely different histories [Lega: strange vehicle for Northern conservative resentment with a kooky history in support of separatism which later sought to become a more typical "right-wing populist" party and get a nationwide appeal / FdI: continuation of the national conservative tradition (AN) which is heir to the neo-fascist tradition from before the 90s (MSI) and suffice to say its base has never been in the North]. There are of course differences in policy and issue emphasis too, mostly flowing from that.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 21, 2022, 07:09:08 PM
Italy is one of those countries in which public opinion is now apt to shift quite radically over the course of a campaign: for instance the last election was assumed to be an easy victory for the Right coalition and it was assumed that the PD would not collapse catastrophically in the South. However.

Italy is also a country where you can't publish polls in the last two weeks of a campaign, which means what ones you have are fairly prone to end up horribly wrong. Notably both in 2013 and 2018 M5S stood out for significantly overperforming in the actual election... but that was a time before they were so damaged and worn out.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on July 21, 2022, 07:10:34 PM
Salvini must resent the way that Meloni has supplanted him as the far right leader, perhaps the best hope for Italian Democracy is that this divide can be manipulated somehow.

I only really have a rudimentary understanding of Italian politics, but what is the difference between the Brothers of Italy and the League? Does Italy really need two major far-right parties?

There are many posts on this thread about this, but I also understand they're hard to dig up immediately so I'll sum it up by saying that they exist separately because they have completely different histories [Lega: strange vehicle for Northern conservative resentment with a kooky history in support of separatism which later sought to become a more typical "right-wing populist" party and get a nationwide appeal / FdI: continuation of the national conservative tradition (AN) which is heir to the neo-fascist tradition from before the 90s (MSI) and suffice to say its base has never been in the North]. There are of course differences in policy and issue emphasis too, mostly flowing from that.

Thanks for responding. It seems like Italy is on a pretty dark trajectory, unless what others are saying is true and this likely far-right government does in fact end up falling short by the time the election comes around.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Oppo on July 21, 2022, 07:23:25 PM


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: TiltsAreUnderrated on July 21, 2022, 08:31:48 PM
Maybe Salvini and Meloni can work out a deal where they rotate the PM role with each getting 2.5 years of a 5 years term.

Either there’s more than one rotation scheduled or there’s an invitation for government collapse as soon as the first PM relinquishes power. That’s the most precedent set twice now in Israel.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: njwes on July 21, 2022, 11:02:42 PM
So does Draghi remain on as the Prime Minister-in-name until the election? Or will the president appoint a stopgap/caretaker PM?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Beagle on July 22, 2022, 04:18:22 AM
Electoral system: Rosatellum (modified per reduction of MPs); Chamber: 245 PR, 147 FPTP, 8 Abroad; Senate: 122 PR, 74 FPTP, 4 Abroad (1 per each constituency); PR thresholds: 10% per coalitions, 3% per party list (1% to be included in the PR distribution) Linguistic minorites threshold (SVP in Trentino-Alto Adige/South Tyrol) is 20% to be included in Chamber' PR distribution (in Senate, the South Tyrol will only elect by their 6 fixed FPTP seats)
Sorry for the dumb question, but does this mean that a party running on its own needs 3%, while a party running in a coalition needs 1% of the total vote to get PMs?
Also:
Are Az/+Eu a party list or a coalition for threshold purposes?
Is Giovanni Toti's outfit running with IV or is he seeking a path back to the centre right?
I was also wondering if some of the controversial politicians of the (not-so) distant past are still vying for relevancy or are they retired now: Gianfranco Fini and Nichi Vendola come to mind.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Coldstream on July 22, 2022, 08:24:58 AM
*Surely* Di Maio, Toti and Renzi have to work together? If not with the PD at least with each other - otherwise they all go down. I get they are egos, but they can’t possibly think they have any hope of relevance without cooperation.

I’m resigned that this won’t happen, and Meloni will win an even bigger majority than the polls show because this is the world we live in - but still, someone should try and broker a deal across the
Pro-Eu/Pro Nato centre & left.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 22, 2022, 08:32:33 AM
*Surely* Di Maio, Toti and Renzi have to work together? If not with the PD at least with each other - otherwise they all go down. I get they are egos, but they can’t possibly think they have any hope of relevance without cooperation.

I’m resigned that this won’t happen, and Meloni will win an even bigger majority than the polls show because this is the world we live in - but still, someone should try and broker a deal across the
Pro-Eu/Pro Nato centre & left.

Di Maio and Renzi specifically working together seems. Rather implausible given their history, but then again, stranger things have happened in Italian politics. If they end up together it will almost certainly be as part of a PD-led coalition, though.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 22, 2022, 08:40:40 AM
Maybe Salvini and Meloni can work out a deal where they rotate the PM role with each getting 2.5 years of a 5 years term.

Either there’s more than one rotation scheduled or there’s an invitation for government collapse as soon as the first PM relinquishes power. That’s the most precedent set twice now in Israel.

That's the precedent which Italy itself set in the 1980s! Craxi was supposed to only lead the government for half the legislature, but then he was reappointed after his first cabinet fell and the DC only accepted begrudgingly... and then forced early elections when Craxi resigned the second time with a surreal motion of no confidence. For what it's worth, I don't think Salvini and Meloni will make any sort of rotation deal.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 22, 2022, 08:43:35 AM
So does Dragging remain on as the Prime Minister-in-name until the election? Or will the president appoint a stopgap/caretaker PM?

Draghi will remain President of the Council to handle current affairs until a new government takes the oath of office, which is the normal procedure.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 22, 2022, 09:50:19 AM
Electoral system: Rosatellum (modified per reduction of MPs); Chamber: 245 PR, 147 FPTP, 8 Abroad; Senate: 122 PR, 74 FPTP, 4 Abroad (1 per each constituency); PR thresholds: 10% per coalitions, 3% per party list (1% to be included in the PR distribution) Linguistic minorites threshold (SVP in Trentino-Alto Adige/South Tyrol) is 20% to be included in Chamber' PR distribution (in Senate, the South Tyrol will only elect by their 6 fixed FPTP seats)
Sorry for the dumb question, but does this mean that a party running on its own needs 3%, while a party running in a coalition needs 1% of the total vote to get PMs?
Also:
Are Az/+Eu a party list or a coalition for threshold purposes?
Is Giovanni Toti's outfit running with IV or is he seeking a path back to the centre right?
I was also wondering if some of the controversial politicians of the (not-so) distant past are still vying for relevancy or are they retired now: Gianfranco Fini and Nichi Vendola come to mind.

1. Any list needs to get 3% to get Deputies or Senators through the proportional part, whether it is inside a coalition or not. I think what the 1% means is that votes for lists which garnered less than that aren't considered when PR seats are distributed.
2. Az/+E are going to run a common list.
3. It is unclear what Toti (or Brugnaro) will do, but the original idea of joining IV seems dead?
4. Fini and Vendola are basically retired from electoral politics. I think Vendola is still a member of SI but he is mostly involved with poetry and social activism now. Fini is completely outside of this and presumably has no interest in any currently active party.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: xelas81 on July 22, 2022, 10:30:17 AM
Can party can just only run on PR lists?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on July 22, 2022, 10:46:21 AM
I refuse to suffer alone:



Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 22, 2022, 10:59:45 AM
Can party can just only run on PR lists?

No, the list has to be linked to a FPTP candidate. I am not sure why you'd want to do that though...


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Coldstream on July 22, 2022, 12:24:01 PM
*Surely* Di Maio, Toti and Renzi have to work together? If not with the PD at least with each other - otherwise they all go down. I get they are egos, but they can’t possibly think they have any hope of relevance without cooperation.

I’m resigned that this won’t happen, and Meloni will win an even bigger majority than the polls show because this is the world we live in - but still, someone should try and broker a deal across the
Pro-Eu/Pro Nato centre & left.

Di Maio and Renzi specifically working together seems. Rather implausible given their history, but then again, stranger things have happened in Italian politics. If they end up together it will almost certainly be as part of a PD-led coalition, though.

Di Maio seems to have made a complete about face on everything M5S stood for though and embraced the EU.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: MRCVzla on July 22, 2022, 01:05:31 PM
The South Tyrol autonomists SVP are running alone this time, last time they ran apart of any coalition was in 2008, in 2018 ran with the centre-left but after the regional/provincial elections of that year they have the Lega as is government partner (in the 2019 EP election they votes were linked nationally to FI). Anyway, they have very safe their 2 Bolzano districts in both chambers (plus 1 PR seat they probably will get in the Chamber), the question mark should be the proper Bolzano italian-friendly district in the Senate who remained unchanged and is a competitive seat for both Csx, Cdx and the SVP itself.

In Aosta Valley, PD wants to form a "great autonomist front" between local parties UV, AV and Mouv, but they have some minor problems in the formation of the alliance. In 2018, the Chamber seat was won by M5S meanwhile the Senate seat was held by the PD-backed autonomist candidate, as in 2018 and in the latest regional election, the Center-right was divided between the Lega and FI-FDI, likely will happen again unless last minute moves.

Centrists updates: Calenda rejects being in the same coalition "to the far-left (SI/EV) to Di Maio", he's confident to pull a similar result to their Rome mayoral run (20%) running alone or with other centrists (sure), as Azione is collecting some of the politicians who recently left FI like Senator Cangemi or some rumors point about Ministers Gelmini and Brunetta (or even Mara Carfagna) to join the party in next days.

Meanwhile in the far-left, Rifondazione Comunista (member of the Popular Union alliance) had proposed to the M5S to form a "popular alliance" coalition.

Rumors say former PD leader Nicola Zingaretti will resign to his post of President of the Lazio Region to ran in the General Elections, this could also push a snap regional election (before March 2023) in the capital' region (in case he's elected, probably sure if he ran in the PR quota or in a very safe Rome district).

They are also (minor) problems at the Centre-right coalition in the distribution of the districts per party. FDI wants to use the most recent opinon polls meanwhile Lega and FI prefer a 6-month poll average (less penalizating for both parties)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 22, 2022, 01:43:13 PM
*Surely* Di Maio, Toti and Renzi have to work together? If not with the PD at least with each other - otherwise they all go down. I get they are egos, but they can’t possibly think they have any hope of relevance without cooperation.

I’m resigned that this won’t happen, and Meloni will win an even bigger majority than the polls show because this is the world we live in - but still, someone should try and broker a deal across the
Pro-Eu/Pro Nato centre & left.

Di Maio and Renzi specifically working together seems. Rather implausible given their history, but then again, stranger things have happened in Italian politics. If they end up together it will almost certainly be as part of a PD-led coalition, though.

Di Maio seems to have made a complete about face on everything M5S stood for though and embraced the EU.

I mean, yeah, but that doesn't mean old grudges are suddenly forgotten. The rhetoric between PD and M5S before and during the 2018 campaign was extremely violent (with some M5S figure at one point even devolving into QAnon-adjacent rhetoric). And Renzi's only reason for being in politics at this point seems to be to make life hell for his enemies. It's possible they end up together for self-preservation purposes, but it won't be a happy alliance.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 22, 2022, 01:53:53 PM
*Surely* Di Maio, Toti and Renzi have to work together? If not with the PD at least with each other - otherwise they all go down. I get they are egos, but they can’t possibly think they have any hope of relevance without cooperation.

I’m resigned that this won’t happen, and Meloni will win an even bigger majority than the polls show because this is the world we live in - but still, someone should try and broker a deal across the
Pro-Eu/Pro Nato centre & left.

Di Maio and Renzi specifically working together seems. Rather implausible given their history, but then again, stranger things have happened in Italian politics. If they end up together it will almost certainly be as part of a PD-led coalition, though.

Di Maio seems to have made a complete about face on everything M5S stood for though and embraced the EU.

I mean, yeah, but that doesn't mean old grudges are suddenly forgotten. The rhetoric between PD and M5S before and during the 2018 campaign was extremely violent (with some M5S figure at one point even devolving into QAnon-adjacent rhetoric). And Renzi's only reason for being in politics at this point seems to be to make life hell for his enemies. It's possible they end up together for self-preservation purposes, but it won't be a happy alliance.

Renzi's only reason for being in politics at this point is to own the left let's be honest (you could say that was always his main reason, but that is a different conversation). I am not sure what Di Maio wants his deal to be now, but as you said he and Renzi don't quite make much sense together. I feel like the former is much more likely to end up with the PD.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 22, 2022, 01:56:46 PM
I mean, yeah, but that doesn't mean old grudges are suddenly forgotten. The rhetoric between PD and M5S before and during the 2018 campaign was extremely violent (with some M5S figure at one point even devolving into QAnon-adjacent rhetoric). And Renzi's only reason for being in politics at this point seems to be to make life hell for his enemies. It's possible they end up together for self-preservation purposes, but it won't be a happy alliance.

Given the way Italian politics tends to go, from this description it almost sounds crashingly, hilariously inevitable.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Lord Halifax on July 22, 2022, 02:14:30 PM
what sort of people still support Forza Italia?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 22, 2022, 03:19:31 PM
what sort of people still support Forza Italia?

This is another question that has already come up, but in short: they tend to be either a subsection of People of Money who will think of themselves as the "centro" part of "centrodestra" or quite a number of Southern voters (particularly in Sicily I think), who appear to skew unemployed.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on July 22, 2022, 05:58:22 PM
I refuse to suffer alone:



What the hell? Especially with Salvini. Is this a normal thing in Italy?

Meloni though...it's too bad she's so hideous on the inside.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on July 23, 2022, 08:59:01 AM
or quite a number of Southern voters (particularly in Sicily I think), who appear to skew unemployed.
There seemed to be a lean towards housewives, or am I misremembering?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 23, 2022, 10:16:54 AM
or quite a number of Southern voters (particularly in Sicily I think), who appear to skew unemployed.
There seemed to be a lean towards housewives, or am I misremembering?

Probably. Come to think of it, I wouldn't be surprised if the strongest predictor of FI vote was how many hours of TV per day a person watched on average between, say, 1990 and 2010.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on July 23, 2022, 10:19:03 AM
or quite a number of Southern voters (particularly in Sicily I think), who appear to skew unemployed.
There seemed to be a lean towards housewives, or am I misremembering?

Probably. Come to think of it, I wouldn't be surprised if the strongest predictor of FI vote was how many hours of TV per day a person watched on average between, say, 1990 and 2010.
Probably impossible, but someone should do this analysis with both Berlusconi and Trump voters.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 23, 2022, 11:26:08 AM
or quite a number of Southern voters (particularly in Sicily I think), who appear to skew unemployed.
There seemed to be a lean towards housewives, or am I misremembering?

Yes of course (I was meaning to include them as well). Naturally, they may also be the wives of people in the first category I mentioned.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: MRCVzla on July 23, 2022, 07:16:26 PM
Despite the national-level brokeup, today were held the Primaries of the "large camp" area (PD+M5S+left) for the coalition' presidential candidate in the upcoming Sicilian regional election. Most of the votes were online and turnout was more than 2/3 of the less of 50k inscrits. MEP Caterina Chinnici (PD) will be the coalition' candidate, the M5S has conceded the result


In other nationwide news relate to the now weak "MoVimento", Beppe Grillo reconfirmed the party' two-term limit policy who barres to run any of the party MPs who are on parliament since 2013 (and probably one of the reasons of the Di Maio' faction spilt from the party). This caused the return to the party of Alessandro Di Battista, one of the politicians most linked to the M5S' original populist/anti-system stances and who was disastified with the Di Maio/pro-Draghi direction of the party.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oppo on July 23, 2022, 10:56:26 PM
or quite a number of Southern voters (particularly in Sicily I think), who appear to skew unemployed.
There seemed to be a lean towards housewives, or am I misremembering?

Probably. Come to think of it, I wouldn't be surprised if the strongest predictor of FI vote was how many hours of TV per day a person watched on average between, say, 1990 and 2010.
A rather exhaustive study came to that conclusion — Mediaset really dumbed down Italians into voting for Silvio.

https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20150958


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 24, 2022, 03:11:10 AM
or quite a number of Southern voters (particularly in Sicily I think), who appear to skew unemployed.
There seemed to be a lean towards housewives, or am I misremembering?

Probably. Come to think of it, I wouldn't be surprised if the strongest predictor of FI vote was how many hours of TV per day a person watched on average between, say, 1990 and 2010.
A rather exhaustive study came to that conclusion — Mediaset really dumbed down Italians into voting for Silvio.

https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20150958

Thanks for sharing. This is terrifying but not at all surprising, as it's been the sort of thing people in Italy have noticed anecdotally for a long time.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on July 24, 2022, 05:06:26 AM
https://www.youtrend.it/2022/07/22/simulazione-youtrend-cattaneo-zanetto-co-senza-alleanza-pd-m5s-supermaggioranza-in-parlamento-per-il-centrodestra/

YouTrend has the Right-wing alliance with a small majority of the seats if PD and M5S get into an alliance.    I am skeptical about how transferable the PD and M5S votes are to each other.
()


It has a bigger Right-wing alliance majority if PD and M5S fight separately.
()


An a ultra-thin majority for the Right-wing alliance if everyone gangs up on them
()


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on July 24, 2022, 05:07:14 AM
Bloomberg: "Italy’s Democrats are weighing possible alliances for the country’s national elections in September and will decide in the coming days and weeks on the makeup of any new coalitions, party leader Enrico Letta said in an interview with la Repubblica published Sunday."


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 24, 2022, 06:34:34 AM
or quite a number of Southern voters (particularly in Sicily I think), who appear to skew unemployed.
There seemed to be a lean towards housewives, or am I misremembering?

Probably. Come to think of it, I wouldn't be surprised if the strongest predictor of FI vote was how many hours of TV per day a person watched on average between, say, 1990 and 2010.
A rather exhaustive study came to that conclusion — Mediaset really dumbed down Italians into voting for Silvio.

https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20150958

Thanks for sharing. This is terrifying but not at all surprising, as it's been the sort of thing people in Italy have noticed anecdotally for a long time.

I had already seen this study* and the effect of early exposure to Mediaset is definitely eye-popping but also hardly a very strong correlation (it's also probably in the past now, since the study notes it was "transferred" to the M5S in 2013 and all the electorate shifts in the last decade must have shaken it twelve times over). I am sure watching more Mediaset in later decades has a significant correlation with voting to the right, but that has the risk of confusing cause and effect.

*Side note: the study deserves to be trashed regardless of everything else just for asserting the PD existed in 1994 and never correcting the mistake, jao.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 24, 2022, 07:08:18 AM
Despite the national-level brokeup, today were held the Primaries of the "large camp" area (PD+M5S+left) for the coalition' presidential candidate in the upcoming Sicilian regional election. Most of the votes were online and turnout was more than 2/3 of the less of 50k inscrits. MEP Caterina Chinnici (PD) will be the coalition' candidate, the M5S has conceded the result

Floridia getting 33% of online votes and only 14% of in-person votes is classic M5S... in general online primaries are a terrible idea but what can I say, I guess better than nothing.

I still think Musumeci will be re-elected, but I suppose Chinnici has a chance if the right decides to shoot itself in the foot (not unlikely given many of them don't want Musumeci starting from Gianfranco Miccichè). Personally I would have preferred Fava as the centre-left candidate, although he probably couldn't win either vote.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oppo on July 24, 2022, 11:03:42 AM
Apparently he lost a bet with Berlusconi…idk about you guys but he looks disgusting now



Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 24, 2022, 02:38:11 PM
Letta confirms that the alliance with M5S is dead and buried but opens to a broad "progressive democratic" alliance including IV, Azione, IpF and the whole galaxy to the left of PD. It's exceedingly unlikely that all of them will play ball. We'll see how many he manages to get.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on July 25, 2022, 03:01:43 AM
How well is Renzi expected to do ? What's he been up to in all this ?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on July 25, 2022, 03:33:55 AM
How well is Renzi expected to do ? What's he been up to in all this ?

Is usually polling at 2-3%.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on July 25, 2022, 04:10:59 AM
(Bloomberg) --Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy gains in Italy polls, leading with 23.8%, followed by the Democrats at 22.5% and Matteo Salvini’s League at 13.4%, according to Quorum/Youtrend poll for SkyTG24 published Monday.
Five Star at 9.8%, Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia at 8.3%
In case of Democrats’ coalition with centrist parties only, rightwing bloc would win with 45.3% versus 36.3%; in case of Democrats’ coalition with Five Star the rightwing bloc would win 48.1% to 34%


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: xelas81 on July 25, 2022, 12:36:09 PM
Wil the Sicilian regional election be held before or at the same time as the national election?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 25, 2022, 03:01:43 PM
Wil the Sicilian regional election be held before or at the same time as the national election?

We don't have an official date yet but it is very likely that the regional election will be held after the national election (the last one in 2017 was on 5 November).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: MRCVzla on July 25, 2022, 06:56:53 PM
Speranza has given the OK for Articolo 1 to run together in a common list with PD (on Wednesday the party leadership would make the decision official), the PSI will also join this list which will be called "Democrats and Progressives" (ofc along with the PD symbol). Today was also the presentation of the appeal for a "republican pact" by Azione and +Europa, where once again they reinforce their position against the centre-right and everything that is or has been related to the M5S, while not closing to a return to the centre-left alliance.

In more scoop related to the formation of the center-left coalition...

Quote
More and more insistent voices speak of an agreement between PD, Azione/Più Europa, a Centrist list (Di Maio and others), EV-SI. Renzi out of the center-left.
Could this be why the former PM presented a new symbol in recent days?

(Probably if this scenario turns out to be true, this will ultimately atract Toti to team up with Renzi and run alone, even though the two combined (according to polls) are around -if not below- the 3% threshold for the PR quota).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: PSOL on July 25, 2022, 10:39:42 PM
I see the coalition of chaos is forming, let’s see if they flop as hard as NUPES or like the Hungarian mess.

A lot of these party leaders are so out of touch with their own voters, no wonder the edgy fashies are going to win hard.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 26, 2022, 04:18:50 AM
lmao, if Renzi really wants to go alone against a coalition that goes all the way from Speranza to Calenda, he really doesn't give a sh*t anymore. He'd rather destroy any political relevance he might have had than cooperate with Letta. I guess I shouldn't be surprised but I am, a little bit.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on July 26, 2022, 05:10:47 AM
lmao, if Renzi really wants to go alone against a coalition that goes all the way from Speranza to Calenda, he really doesn't give a sh*t anymore. He'd rather destroy any political relevance he might have had than cooperate with Letta. I guess I shouldn't be surprised but I am, a little bit.

Could not one counterargue that if the Right wing bloc is going to win no matter what then Renzi should prioritize holding on to his limited vote base?  Joining a Center-Left bloc would just mean his voters drift back to PD.  There is an argument that Renzi should try to expand his vote base which gives him more bargaining power next election when there is a chance that a Center-Left bloc can win.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Estrella on July 26, 2022, 05:22:39 AM
lmao, if Renzi really wants to go alone against a coalition that goes all the way from Speranza to Calenda, he really doesn't give a sh*t anymore. He'd rather destroy any political relevance he might have had than cooperate with Letta. I guess I shouldn't be surprised but I am, a little bit.

Could not one counterargue that if the Right wing bloc is going to win no matter what then Renzi should prioritize holding on to his limited vote base?  Joining a Center-Left bloc would just mean his voters drift back to PD.  There is an argument that Renzi should try to expand his vote base which gives him more bargaining power next election when there is a chance that a Center-Left bloc can win.

his what

Renzi's centrism can be summed up as "everyone hates me, therefore I'm right". Nobody who doesn't already vote for him will be convinced to back him in five years. Of course you could say that everyone hates Berlusconi and he still keeps getting his 45% 30% 15% 7%, but the difference is that he has an actual base, decrepit as it is. Renzi isn't polarizing because you need two poles for that.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 26, 2022, 06:04:48 AM
lmao, if Renzi really wants to go alone against a coalition that goes all the way from Speranza to Calenda, he really doesn't give a sh*t anymore. He'd rather destroy any political relevance he might have had than cooperate with Letta. I guess I shouldn't be surprised but I am, a little bit.

Could not one counterargue that if the Right wing bloc is going to win no matter what then Renzi should prioritize holding on to his limited vote base?  Joining a Center-Left bloc would just mean his voters drift back to PD.  There is an argument that Renzi should try to expand his vote base which gives him more bargaining power next election when there is a chance that a Center-Left bloc can win.

Renzi has no actual vote base, wtf. Going alone is if anything more likely to make his share further plummet, and in any case this would be an incredibly stupid bargain when he is at serious risk of not clearing the threshold.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 26, 2022, 06:38:05 AM
lmao, if Renzi really wants to go alone against a coalition that goes all the way from Speranza to Calenda, he really doesn't give a sh*t anymore. He'd rather destroy any political relevance he might have had than cooperate with Letta. I guess I shouldn't be surprised but I am, a little bit.

Could not one counterargue that if the Right wing bloc is going to win no matter what then Renzi should prioritize holding on to his limited vote base?  Joining a Center-Left bloc would just mean his voters drift back to PD.  There is an argument that Renzi should try to expand his vote base which gives him more bargaining power next election when there is a chance that a Center-Left bloc can win.

In addition to what has been said, it's just not the case empirically that parties do better when they run autonomously rather than as part of a coalition. If anything, experience suggests the opposite. PRC, PdCI and the Greens got a combined 10% when they ran as part of L'Unione in 2006. Two years later when they ran against the PD-backed coalition they only got 3%. SEL in 2013 did better than RC as well. And before you say this is only an issue on the left, centrist outfits running outside of the main two coalitions also have a rich history of underperforming their initial polling. Chances are this is what will happen to Renzi as well if he decides to run alone - and given that his starting point is just 2-3%, that doesn't bode well for his survival.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 26, 2022, 03:14:42 PM
Yeah, 'Genepool DCs for Unspecified Reform!!!!!' is not a massive section of the electorate, to put it mildly, and by this point everyone else thinks that Renzi is (how shall we put it) a fine example of a Country Member.

The tendency for small parties to poll better when they form part of joint lists seems at first to be bizarre as that's really not how things work elsewhere, but it makes perfect sense if you think of parties and lists as the average Italian voter does. No one wants to waste their vote and, frankly, most of these parties and lists won't be around (at least not in the same form, with the same branding) next time round, so it becomes a matter of functional electoral credibility.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on July 26, 2022, 07:55:54 PM
I see the coalition of chaos is forming, let’s see if they flop as hard as NUPES or like the Hungarian mess.

There's a big difference between NUPES, which underperformed but only about as badly as the shambolic rightist government it exists to A-Log did, and the Hungarian disaster. A center-left-to-left pole doing relatively as well in the Italian context as NUPES did in the French one would be on the rosier side of expectations.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on July 26, 2022, 08:28:50 PM
I see the coalition of chaos is forming, let’s see if they flop as hard as NUPES or like the Hungarian mess.

There's a big difference between NUPES, which underperformed but only about as badly as the shambolic rightist government it exists to A-Log did, and the Hungarian disaster. A center-left-to-left pole doing relatively as well in the Italian context as NUPES did in the French one would be on the rosier side of expectations.

Yes, barring a reversal (on the part of both partners) and reconfiguration of the PD-M5S alliance, there just arn't the votes for PD + minors to do anything else than lose with dignity. M5S at this point still has a clear identity and platform distinct from everyone else, so its hard to imagine the electoral squeeze occurring as voters go to the bigger alliances...and not all if forced to choose would pick the PD's alliance over the conservatives.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 27, 2022, 05:49:53 AM
Yeah, 'Genepool DCs for Unspecified Reform!!!!!' is not a massive section of the electorate, to put it mildly, and by this point everyone else thinks that Renzi is (how shall we put it) a fine example of a Country Member.

Renzi loves to talk about the European Union and about how 'worldly' he is (which of course is a pretty genepool Christian Democrat thing to do, in spite of some people thinking that one can only be turbodeplorable on all issues at once) but he is definitely the wrong person and the wrong personality to capture the votes of the sort of educated young person who cares an outsized amount about that. Enter on the scene Carlo Calenda...


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: MRCVzla on July 27, 2022, 05:58:15 AM
Latest updates: Conte re-confirmed yesterday on an interview what the M5S is running alone (no alliances neither to the left yet), Renzi also sayed IV will running alone (for now), Di Maio meanwhile is assembly his centrist list along Tabacci' Centro Democratico or Milano mayor Beppe Sala (also some notes says former Parma mayor Federico Pizzarotti would be also around). As the exodus from Forza Italia continues as Mara Carfagna confirmed she's leaving FI joing fellow ministers Gelmini and Brunetta to the mixed group in the way to likely joining Azione or other centrist parties (as today, 9 MPs left FI since the start of the political crisis).

Many simbols were unveiled: The Europa Verde-Sinistra Italiana joint list will finally named as "Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra" (Greens and Left Alliance), still unclear if they will running alone or be partner of either centre-left or the M5S. The souveranist left (anti-Draghi, anti-NATO and a little bit antivaxx too...) around the "United for the Constitution" Senate group also presented their list named "Italy Sovereign and Popular", supported among others by Marco Rizzo' Partito Comunista or Antonio Ingroia (who led a few left-wing souveranist lists in the last two elections), neither other members of the group like M5S-splinter Alternativa or what remains of Italia dei Valori are joining this list (yet). As in the centre-right camp, Maurizio Lupi presented a new symbol for Noi con l'Italia who probably will be used again as the coalition' "fourth leg" (in 2018 were a common list along the UDC -screwed by M5S' strong performance in the South-, today are now a full party and likely are trying to secure some safe FPTP seats)

In a minor but kind of relevant note for the next legislature, as the Senate is still working through August 6, the minimal number to form a group as been lowered from 10 to 7 senators.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 27, 2022, 06:40:28 AM
Many simbols were unveiled: The Europa Verde-Sinistra Italiana joint list will finally named as "Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra" (Greens and Left Alliance), still unclear if they will running alone or be partner of either centre-left or the M5S. The souveranist left (anti-Draghi, anti-NATO and a little bit antivaxx too...) around the "United for the Constitution" Senate group also presented their list named "Italy Sovereign and Popular", supported among others by Marco Rizzo' Partito Comunista or Antonio Ingroia (who led a few left-wing souveranist lists in the last two elections), neither other members of the group like M5S-splinter Alternativa or what remains of Italia dei Valori are joining this list (yet). As in the centre-right camp, Maurizio Lupi presented a new symbol for Noi con l'Italia who probably will be used again as the coalition' "fourth leg" (in 2018 were a common list along the UDC -screwed by M5S' strong performance in the South-, today are now a full party and likely are trying to secure some safe FPTP seats)

I am glad SI-EV settled on a normal name instead of that hideous NUOVE ENERGIE idea, rare Italian political onomatology W. I am sure Alternativa will join what I will affectionately name the left-wing cranks (on the other side, Italexit will presumably join with Simone Di Stefano and Mario Adinolfi to form the right-wing cranks). The mention of Ingroia made me want to check what Luigi De Magistris is doing and apparently he is pushing hard for a left-wing populist alliance with M5S, Greens and Left - and his microparty of course; lots of contacts between him and good old Alessandro Di Battista.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on July 27, 2022, 09:46:02 AM
The mention of Ingroia made me want to check what Luigi De Magistris is doing and apparently he is pushing hard for a left-wing populist alliance with M5S, Greens and Left - and his microparty of course; lots of contacts between him and good old Alessandro Di Battista.
I'm sure you aren't surprised by my one-note takes on modern Italian politics at this point, but I think I'd have to vote for this if it happened.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 27, 2022, 11:38:23 AM
The mention of Ingroia made me want to check what Luigi De Magistris is doing and apparently he is pushing hard for a left-wing populist alliance with M5S, Greens and Left - and his microparty of course; lots of contacts between him and good old Alessandro Di Battista.
I'm sure you aren't surprised by my one-note takes on modern Italian politics at this point, but I think I'd have to vote for this if it happened.

I could not quite blame you but that is also a good reason why it must not happen. Although it is interesting that those parties are seemingly pretty close on policy but also very different in their vote bases...


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on July 27, 2022, 11:44:26 AM
The mention of Ingroia made me want to check what Luigi De Magistris is doing and apparently he is pushing hard for a left-wing populist alliance with M5S, Greens and Left - and his microparty of course; lots of contacts between him and good old Alessandro Di Battista.
I'm sure you aren't surprised by my one-note takes on modern Italian politics at this point, but I think I'd have to vote for this if it happened.

I could not quite blame you but that is also a good reason why it must not happen. Although it is interesting that those parties are seemingly pretty close on policy but also very different in their vote bases...
The Greens and the designated left-of-the-social-democrats party having different voter bases to the designated labour party? Many such cases ;)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 27, 2022, 12:07:21 PM
The mention of Ingroia made me want to check what Luigi De Magistris is doing and apparently he is pushing hard for a left-wing populist alliance with M5S, Greens and Left - and his microparty of course; lots of contacts between him and good old Alessandro Di Battista.
I'm sure you aren't surprised by my one-note takes on modern Italian politics at this point, but I think I'd have to vote for this if it happened.

I could not quite blame you but that is also a good reason why it must not happen. Although it is interesting that those parties are seemingly pretty close on policy but also very different in their vote bases...
The Greens and the designated left-of-the-social-democrats party having different voter bases to the designated labour party? Many such cases ;)

However actually "designated" labour parties often have a voter base that is less like M5S and more like in between M5S and PD. Except the Labour Party par excellence of course, as long as the Tories keep bribing the old with ground rent and the Greens keep being a joke.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on July 27, 2022, 01:45:43 PM
The mention of Ingroia made me want to check what Luigi De Magistris is doing and apparently he is pushing hard for a left-wing populist alliance with M5S, Greens and Left - and his microparty of course; lots of contacts between him and good old Alessandro Di Battista.
I'm sure you aren't surprised by my one-note takes on modern Italian politics at this point, but I think I'd have to vote for this if it happened.

I could not quite blame you but that is also a good reason why it must not happen. Although it is interesting that those parties are seemingly pretty close on policy but also very different in their vote bases...
The Greens and the designated left-of-the-social-democrats party having different voter bases to the designated labour party? Many such cases ;)

However actually "designated" labour parties often have a voter base that is less like M5S and more like in between M5S and PD. Except the Labour Party par excellence of course, as long as the Tories keep bribing the old with ground rent and the Greens keep being a joke.
Correct, which is why everyone involved ought to stop resisting the obvious realignment of the Italian left now that the opportunity may be on the horizon. Maybe if M5S manages to not blow itself up by the time Girlboss Meloni inevitably falters...


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 27, 2022, 02:21:01 PM
The mention of Ingroia made me want to check what Luigi De Magistris is doing and apparently he is pushing hard for a left-wing populist alliance with M5S, Greens and Left - and his microparty of course; lots of contacts between him and good old Alessandro Di Battista.
I'm sure you aren't surprised by my one-note takes on modern Italian politics at this point, but I think I'd have to vote for this if it happened.

I could not quite blame you but that is also a good reason why it must not happen. Although it is interesting that those parties are seemingly pretty close on policy but also very different in their vote bases...
The Greens and the designated left-of-the-social-democrats party having different voter bases to the designated labour party? Many such cases ;)

However actually "designated" labour parties often have a voter base that is less like M5S and more like in between M5S and PD. Except the Labour Party par excellence of course, as long as the Tories keep bribing the old with ground rent and the Greens keep being a joke.
Correct, which is why everyone involved ought to stop resisting the obvious realignment of the Italian left now that the opportunity may be on the horizon. Maybe if M5S manages to not blow itself up by the time Girlboss Meloni inevitably falters...

On the contrary, the M5S is a stupid party even by our standards and it is necessary that it blows itself up instead of furthering this ideological zombie apocalypse, especially if you want something better to arise from its ashes. I suppose, say, Roberto Fico wants a job afterwards...


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: MRCVzla on July 27, 2022, 04:56:59 PM
Today was an held an important meeting of the centre-right at Montecitorio palace (House' place) between Meloni, Salvini, Berlusconi, their respective parties high ranks, plus Lupi (NCI), De Poli (UDC) and Brugnaro (Coraggio Italia).

Quote
The center-right tonight during the Montecitorio summit would also have reached an agreement on the premiership

As in 2018, in the event of a victory, the coalition party that gets the most votes will have the right to indicate the prime minister


Quote
Repubblica writes that the center-right has closed an agreement for the division of the 221 single-member constituencies on these numbers:
FDI 98 (44%) Lega 70 (32%) FI 42 (19%) NcI 11 (5%)

The parties' share taking the latest average polls were:
FDI 49% Lega 32% FI 18% NcI 1%

NCI quota also includes CI and UDC will run inside of FI' lists, All parties are running with their own lists to a total of 5, also they agreed to present a common list in the overseas constituencies, as they did -the big 3- in 2018.

Meanwhile the internal problems in the M5S continues around founder Grillo' two-term limit rule as Conte seems being against of it.

Quote
According to the Corriere della Sera, there would have been an ultimatum from Grillo to Conte: "If you waive the second mandate, I leave the Movement"


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Mike88 on July 27, 2022, 05:16:38 PM
M5S is doing everything in their power to be declared dead after this election (if it's not already, they just don't know it yet). I have a hunch they will poll in single digits. But, they will not be missed, IMO.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 28, 2022, 03:14:56 AM

Quote
Repubblica writes that the center-right has closed an agreement for the division of the 221 single-member constituencies on these numbers:
FDI 98 (44%) Lega 70 (32%) FI 42 (19%) NcI 11 (5%)

The parties' share taking the latest average polls were:
FDI 49% Lega 32% FI 18% NcI 1%

That's a pretty good deal for FdI, all considered. aside from NCI being overrepresented (which is kind of inevitable for a fake party that exists as a personal vehicle for a bunch of has-beens), they're getting almost exactly their share of the polls, which is very generous considering that the other parties were arguing for taking into account past results. At the end of the day FdI has the most to gain from the right-wing coalition to win a majority, as that would almost certainly make Meloni PM. Of course, Salvini and Berlusconi are also putting their political survival at stake, so I'm not surprised they found an agreement. The Italian right always falls in line (while the Italian left usually falls apart - bur inshallah maybe not this time).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: FrancoAgo on July 28, 2022, 03:35:26 AM
Hom many is not important, is what the point
not all the seats are the same


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on July 28, 2022, 08:44:03 AM
Hom many is not important, is what the point
not all the seats are the same

Yes, this is important given that sometimes these pacts give one group a bunch of the safest seats, or a different group the guaranteed losses. I'm sure Lega will for example get a lot of the north, just given their historic base and current decline.

However, this is only the second major FPTP election in recent history. Last time M5S snuck in and swept the south, and now they will be lucky to get anything. This time is looking like a conservative majority, but with limited data to pull from, only a portion of the seats can be decidedly assumed to be safe for left or right. And depending on the coalition the conservatives might just sweep all but the Left's strongholds - as suggested by a some of the potential alliance models - at which point seat distribution south of Rome won't even matter. So it all seems a bit up in the air.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on July 28, 2022, 09:00:53 AM
Hom many is not important, is what the point
not all the seats are the same

Yes, this is important given that sometimes these pacts give one group a bunch of the safest seats, or a different group the guaranteed losses. I'm sure Lega will for example get a lot of the north, just given their historic base and current decline.

However, this is only the second major FPTP election in recent history. Last time M5S snuck in and swept the south, and now they will be lucky to get anything. This time is looking like a conservative majority, but with limited data to pull from, only a portion of the seats can be decidedly assumed to be safe for left or right. And depending on the coalition the conservatives might just sweep all but the Left's strongholds - as suggested by a some of the potential alliance models - at which point seat distribution south of Rome won't even matter. So it all seems a bit up in the air.

That is my superficial view as well: that the South will be the battleground on who picks up those MS5 seats.   I assume that FdI will get assigned most of those seats


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: FrancoAgo on July 28, 2022, 09:13:32 AM
the only battle ground will be few seats in the old red belt
will be a landslide in the single seat for the right


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Mike88 on July 28, 2022, 12:47:01 PM
La Stampa has a report saying that Salvini's team had contacts with the Russian embassy in Rome, in which the embassy asked if Lega would consider removing their support to Draghi's government. Salvini is denying the report's accusations.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: PSOL on July 28, 2022, 01:39:49 PM
After some time thinking, I will not be abstaining this election, as my vote has the impact of tanking most of the centrist grifter parties and completely breaking PD’s ability to regroup once and for all, allowing better organizations to have breathing room.

I am voting for the UP alliance on account of them being the least s•••e option on being the least likely to join the governing coalition and being right there in tanking the centrist party. The PCI, one of the strongest in Europe in the past, has completely gone full stupid in adopting left-populism. It is time to crash this M5S driven-train with no survivors.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Estrella on July 28, 2022, 03:21:17 PM
After some time thinking, I will not be abstaining this election, as my vote has the impact of tanking most of the centrist grifter parties and completely breaking PD’s ability to regroup once and for all, allowing better organizations to have breathing room.

I am voting for the UP alliance on account of them being the least s•••e option on being the least likely to join the governing coalition and being right there in tanking the centrist party. The PCI, one of the strongest in Europe in the past, has completely gone full stupid in adopting left-populism. It is time to crash this M5S driven-train with no survivors.

The PCI has completely gone full stupid in continuing with the Historic Compromise forty years past its sell-by date and turned themselves into Lib Dems all'italiano in the process. A few cranks with the same name does not a successor make.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 28, 2022, 03:43:05 PM
After some time thinking, I will not be abstaining this election, as my vote has the impact of tanking most of the centrist grifter parties and completely breaking PD’s ability to regroup once and for all, allowing better organizations to have breathing room.

I am voting for the UP alliance on account of them being the least s•••e option on being the least likely to join the governing coalition and being right there in tanking the centrist party. The PCI, one of the strongest in Europe in the past, has completely gone full stupid in adopting left-populism. It is time to crash this M5S driven-train with no survivors.

I am almost impressed by how wrong or deluded everything in this post is. You're not an Italian citizen as far as I am aware so you won't be voting and you will have no impact. Not that Unione Popolare is going to "tank" anyone since it will be lucky to get 2% - let alone the PD, which is the last party in Italy to have problems "regrouping". Also you might like to know that the PCI dissolved in 1991. And somehow even your last sentence makes no sense, since UP's designated leader is Luigi De Magistris and he wants to form an alliance with Conte!


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on July 28, 2022, 03:46:40 PM
After some time thinking, I will not be abstaining this election, as my vote has the impact of tanking most of the centrist grifter parties and completely breaking PD’s ability to regroup once and for all, allowing better organizations to have breathing room.

I am voting for the UP alliance on account of them being the least s•••e option on being the least likely to join the governing coalition and being right there in tanking the centrist party. The PCI, one of the strongest in Europe in the past, has completely gone full stupid in adopting left-populism. It is time to crash this M5S driven-train with no survivors.

I am almost impressed by how wrong or deluded everything in this post is. You're not an Italian citizen as far as I am aware so you won't be voting and you will have no impact. Not that Unione Popolare is going to "tank" anyone since it will be lucky to get 2% - let alone the PD, which is the last party in Italy to have problems "regrouping". Also you might like to know that the PCI dissolved in 1991. And somehow even your last sentence makes no sense, since UP's designated leader is Luigi De Magistris and he wants to form an alliance with Conte!

I mean, certainly PSOL's pronouncements on broader leftist strategy would be a bit more compelling if his favored parties in the US were at least capable of winning Multnomah County Commissioner of Elementary School Mural Removal. Supporting an alliance polling at 2% is a step up.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 28, 2022, 03:56:10 PM
After some time thinking, I will not be abstaining this election, as my vote has the impact of tanking most of the centrist grifter parties and completely breaking PD’s ability to regroup once and for all, allowing better organizations to have breathing room.

I am voting for the UP alliance on account of them being the least s•••e option on being the least likely to join the governing coalition and being right there in tanking the centrist party. The PCI, one of the strongest in Europe in the past, has completely gone full stupid in adopting left-populism. It is time to crash this M5S driven-train with no survivors.

The PCI has completely gone full stupid in continuing with the Historic Compromise forty years past its sell-by date and turned themselves into Lib Dems all'italiano in the process. A few cranks with the same name does not a successor make.

This is... a very oversimplified and not quite accurate description of what happened, although you are not really wrong. Of course, you're right that neither the current microparty called Partito Comunista Italiano nor the other microparties called a variation of that are "successors" of the original - except for Rifondazione Comunista which definitely is but also is not where the bulk of officials or voters went and is now a sort of zombie.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 28, 2022, 03:58:34 PM
After some time thinking, I will not be abstaining this election, as my vote has the impact of tanking most of the centrist grifter parties and completely breaking PD’s ability to regroup once and for all, allowing better organizations to have breathing room.

I am voting for the UP alliance on account of them being the least s•••e option on being the least likely to join the governing coalition and being right there in tanking the centrist party. The PCI, one of the strongest in Europe in the past, has completely gone full stupid in adopting left-populism. It is time to crash this M5S driven-train with no survivors.

I am almost impressed by how wrong or deluded everything in this post is. You're not an Italian citizen as far as I am aware so you won't be voting and you will have no impact. Not that Unione Popolare is going to "tank" anyone since it will be lucky to get 2% - let alone the PD, which is the last party in Italy to have problems "regrouping". Also you might like to know that the PCI dissolved in 1991. And somehow even your last sentence makes no sense, since UP's designated leader is Luigi De Magistris and he wants to form an alliance with Conte!

I mean, certainly PSOL's pronouncements on broader leftist strategy would be a bit more compelling if his favored parties in the US were at least capable of winning Multnomah County Commissioner of Elementary School Mural Removal. Supporting an alliance polling at 2% is a step up.

Unione Popolare / Potere al Popolo is not polling at 2% - it is so small I don't even know if it gets regularly polled. I was setting that as their likely ceiling (PaP got 1.1% in 2018).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: PSOL on July 28, 2022, 04:22:56 PM
I’m not voting for them to win, I’m voting for them to make sure that other parties don’t cross the threshold.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on July 28, 2022, 04:31:22 PM
I’m not voting for them to win, I’m voting for them to make sure that other parties don’t cross the threshold.

So, because you want the impending hard-right government, arguably Italy's first since World War II, to have as big a majority as possible.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 28, 2022, 04:34:41 PM
I’m not voting for them to win, I’m voting for them to make sure that other parties don’t cross the threshold.

You would like to vote for a microparty to stop another microparty from crossing the threshold? What other parties are you even talking about?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Alcibiades on July 28, 2022, 04:39:19 PM
I’m not voting for them to win, I’m voting for them to make sure that other parties don’t cross the threshold.

Found that Italian passport behind the sofa yet, huh?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: WD on July 28, 2022, 04:40:47 PM
I am certain that PSOL will be voting for no one, lmao.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: PSOL on July 28, 2022, 05:00:20 PM
I’m not voting for them to win, I’m voting for them to make sure that other parties don’t cross the threshold.

So, because you want the impending hard-right government, arguably Italy's first since World War II, to have as big a majority as possible.
The next government’s seat count has no bearing on these objectives

I am certain that PSOL will be voting for no one, lmao.
I found it inside my pasta this morning, I had accidentally dropped it with the meatballs


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: PSOL on July 28, 2022, 05:24:16 PM
I’m not voting for them to win, I’m voting for them to make sure that other parties don’t cross the threshold.

You would like to vote for a microparty to stop another microparty from crossing the threshold? What other parties are you even talking about?
The parties polling 4% or lower on the latest EMG poll

Also I am supporting Unita Populare, the other UP.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: FrancoAgo on July 28, 2022, 05:28:44 PM
I would vote Unione popolare, if there is not change in meantime, and i'm long time italian citizen, or better a natural born italian citizen, or my family is italian from since the piemontese invaded the Lazio


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: VPH on July 28, 2022, 05:40:11 PM
What's Tabacci's Christian centrist/center-left party up to this election?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 28, 2022, 05:50:25 PM
What's Tabacci's Christian centrist/center-left party up to this election?

Seemingly intent on running a common list with Di Maio and Sala.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 29, 2022, 04:07:26 AM
It's recently come out that both Salvini and Berlusconi had meetings with Russian diplomats shortly before breaking with Draghi. How unexpected and shocking.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 29, 2022, 07:54:27 AM
It's recently come out that both Salvini and Berlusconi had meetings with Russian diplomats shortly before breaking with Draghi. How unexpected and shocking.

More precisely, Salvini and a close associate of his (Antonio Capuano, former Forza Italia Deputy) had these meetings - related to Salvini's famous planned trip to Moscow - where they also discussed the possibility of Lega leaving the Draghi government. La Stampa (the newspaper breaking the story) attributed the documents to Italian intelligence but Franco Gabrielli, Draghi's undersecretary, quickly denied that.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: rob in cal on July 29, 2022, 01:36:46 PM
  What is the deal with Italexit? Who are their voters and if they clear the threshold would their delegates vote for Meloni if she needed them?
  speaking of thresholds, when the dust settles, which of the smaller parties are likely to be running on their own, and thus likely to absorb votes that might not get any representation?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 29, 2022, 01:47:50 PM
It's recently come out that both Salvini and Berlusconi had meetings with Russian diplomats shortly before breaking with Draghi. How unexpected and shocking.

More precisely, Salvini and a close associate of his (Antonio Capuano, former Forza Italia Deputy) had these meetings - related to Salvini's famous planned trip to Moscow - where they also discussed the possibility of Lega leaving the Draghi government. La Stampa (the newspaper breaking the story) attributed the documents to Italian intelligence but Franco Gabrielli, Draghi's undersecretary, quickly denied that.

Berlusconi had a meeting too (he denies it, of course, but it's being reported by Repubblica and others so I know who I trust).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on July 29, 2022, 03:40:42 PM
It's recently come out that both Salvini and Berlusconi had meetings with Russian diplomats shortly before breaking with Draghi. How unexpected and shocking.

More precisely, Salvini and a close associate of his (Antonio Capuano, former Forza Italia Deputy) had these meetings - related to Salvini's famous planned trip to Moscow - where they also discussed the possibility of Lega leaving the Draghi government. La Stampa (the newspaper breaking the story) attributed the documents to Italian intelligence but Franco Gabrielli, Draghi's undersecretary, quickly denied that.

Berlusconi had a meeting too (he denies it, of course, but it's being reported by Repubblica and others so I know who I trust).

Is FdI the most pro-Europe/pro-NATO rightist party at this point?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 29, 2022, 03:58:55 PM
It's recently come out that both Salvini and Berlusconi had meetings with Russian diplomats shortly before breaking with Draghi. How unexpected and shocking.

More precisely, Salvini and a close associate of his (Antonio Capuano, former Forza Italia Deputy) had these meetings - related to Salvini's famous planned trip to Moscow - where they also discussed the possibility of Lega leaving the Draghi government. La Stampa (the newspaper breaking the story) attributed the documents to Italian intelligence but Franco Gabrielli, Draghi's undersecretary, quickly denied that.

Berlusconi had a meeting too (he denies it, of course, but it's being reported by Repubblica and others so I know who I trust).

Is FdI the most pro-Europe/pro-NATO rightist party at this point?

I would not call FdI more pro-EU than FI at all. I am not quite sure about pro-NATO (Berlusconi of course was long personally close to Putin, which never stopped him from proclaiming his strong Atlanticism).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on July 29, 2022, 04:11:27 PM
It's recently come out that both Salvini and Berlusconi had meetings with Russian diplomats shortly before breaking with Draghi. How unexpected and shocking.

More precisely, Salvini and a close associate of his (Antonio Capuano, former Forza Italia Deputy) had these meetings - related to Salvini's famous planned trip to Moscow - where they also discussed the possibility of Lega leaving the Draghi government. La Stampa (the newspaper breaking the story) attributed the documents to Italian intelligence but Franco Gabrielli, Draghi's undersecretary, quickly denied that.

Berlusconi had a meeting too (he denies it, of course, but it's being reported by Repubblica and others so I know who I trust).

Is FdI the most pro-Europe/pro-NATO rightist party at this point?

More that I feel their friends on the right have deeper/older ties with Putin and Russia. So they just end up looking good by comparison in a weird way. This happened earlier in the year with Salvini getting the flack when Putin attacked Ukraine (photos of him in that shirt didn't help) and the FdI getting enough wiggle room to make the pivot in support of Ukraine.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 29, 2022, 04:33:15 PM
Yeah, I'd say FdI is the most pro-NATO and FI the most pro-EU. Weird dynamic to be sure.

Anyway, feels like I'd try my hand at a simple polling tracker (just of an average of the last polls from each individual pollster who published one in the past week) as these are otherwise quite noisy. Here's those conducted since 07/21, the day of dissolution:

PD/Art1: 23.8%
FdI: 23.6%
Lega: 13.9%
M5S: 10.1%
FI: 7.6%
+E/Azione: 5%
SI/Greens: 3.3%
IV: 2.4%
Italexit: 2.1%
IpF: 1.2%

United right at 45.1% (-0.5). Hypothetical united center-left at 35.7% (+1.5). M5S lost 0.9.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Mike88 on July 29, 2022, 05:13:18 PM
It seems that PD is negotiating with Renzi:


Quote
The PD opens to Italia Viva, #Letta: "Dialogue with Renzi, he is our interlocutor"


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 29, 2022, 05:13:43 PM
  What is the deal with Italexit? Who are their voters and if they clear the threshold would their delegates vote for Meloni if she needed them?
  speaking of thresholds, when the dust settles, which of the smaller parties are likely to be running on their own, and thus likely to absorb votes that might not get any representation?

Italexit's deal is, I believe, accurately described by its name... their voters seem like they should be disproportionately lower middle class Northerners, which fits an anti-system and basically far-right-adjacent M5S splinter. I doubt they would choose to support the CDX to give it a parliamentary majority, but who knows how easily they could get bribed.

I think Italexit, Italia Viva, an array of various far-left groups, and perhaps some declared neofascists (is Forza Nuova even still legal?) will run on their own. For the rest I'm sure of the opposite or I don't see things as clear.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Conservatopia on July 30, 2022, 07:21:17 AM
It's not yet finalised but here's how things stand for the Centre-right Coalition (CDX):

Fratelli d'Italia
LegaLega per Salvini Premier
Sardinian Action Party
Italian Liberal Right
Forza Italia-UDCForza Italia
Union of the Centre
New Italian Socialist Party
Pensioners' Party
Christian Revolution
Animalist Movement
Noi con l'Italia
Coraggio Italia

There will be a number of right-of-centre regionalist parties (AAC, MpA, DB etc) running on the lists of one of the main three partners and a joint list (last time named "Berlusconi-Salvini-Meloni") for the Italians Abroad.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: VPH on July 31, 2022, 09:54:53 AM
How are results going to be broken down? By party, or just by coalition?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 31, 2022, 10:50:14 AM
How are results going to be broken down? By party, or just by coalition?

Both. Parties for the PR seats, coalitions for FPP.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: MRCVzla on July 31, 2022, 10:10:14 PM
It's not yet finalised but here's how things stand for the Centre-right Coalition (CDX):

Fratelli d'Italia
LegaLega per Salvini Premier
Sardinian Action Party
Italian Liberal Right
Forza Italia-UDCForza Italia
Union of the Centre
New Italian Socialist Party
Pensioners' Party
Christian Revolution
Animalist Movement
Noi con l'Italia
Coraggio Italia

There will be a number of right-of-centre regionalist parties (AAC, MpA, DB etc) running on the lists of one of the main three partners and a joint list (last time named "Berlusconi-Salvini-Meloni") for the Italians Abroad.

Not necessary "Rivoluzione Cristiana" but Gianfranco Rotondi' current christ-dem one-man microparty is named "Verde e Popolare" (Green and Popular), just saying. Also inside Lega (per Salvini Premier) there's still around the original Lega Nord who conserves their autonomy as a party despite being outside the basically the same (kind complicate to resume). Nor rule out a possible rejoin from Toti' Italia al Centro (Cambiamo!-IDeA) to the coalition, which in past days has been more than likely rather than run with Renzi or alone.

Weekend update:
- The agreement of the joint list between PD, Articolo 1, PSI and minor social christian party DemoS is official, PD' list nickname will be "Italy Democratic and Progressive", Letta, in an attempt to counteract the M5S term limit rule, has suggested that potential PD' FPTP candidates should not run on PR lists to avoid being re-fished (parachuted) if they lose their district (as was the case with various party heavyweights in 2018). Meanwhile Zingaretti has confirmed he's running
- Tomorrow Monday, it will be decided whether Azione/+Europa will finally run alongside the center-left, although Calenda is still not sure whether to go in the same alliance from Fratoianni to Di Maio, but understands that the current electoral law is what it is if the scenario is to avoid a supermajority of the Cdx, Calenda also today posted a letter to Letta with their toughts about how is going the "Republican agreement" (no alliance with any who voted against Draghi, among others). Meanwhile former FI ministers Gelmini and Carfagna have officially joined Azione and are more favorable to the line of a "Rome scenario" (the center running apart)
- Also tomorrow will be unveiled the symbol and program between Di Maio and Tabacci' centrist list (the latter is the key to not needing to collect signatures*), the name of the list will be Civic Commitment ("Impegno Civico"). Rumors / false news would have indicated that Di Maio would be reserved for the safe district of Modena (even the local PD branch did not see it with good eyes), but the minister has denied that information (most likely he runs in some district in Campania)
- House' Speaker Roberto Fico will respect the M5S' two-term limit rule and he's not seeking reelection, but others two-term M5S MP like Davide Crippa (former M5S group leader in the House) or minister Federico D'Inca' had left the party.
- Small centrist lists have appeared in recent days, Federico Pizzarotti together with Piercamillo Falasca have launched the National Civic List "L'Italia c'e'" advocated so that mayors and various independents can present within the list, it will also run without the need to collect signatures (*) as Italia Viva has changed the name of its House group to include this reform-oriented micro-party (of which some IV' MPs are also members)
- Other centrist list running alone is Referendum and Democracy headed by Marco Capatto, an exponent always linked to the Radicals and defender not only of pan-Europeanism but also that referendums such as those regarding euthanasia or cannabis legalization can be carried out, members of Possibile and Volt' italian branch will also be on this list as well MP Alessandro Fusacchia (elected with +Europa in 2018), also has (kind of) the support of former FI MP Elio Vito.
- Another centrist list that will run on its own will be Clemente Mastella' Noi Di Centro, who, although he offered himself to the center-left, will finally present his own candidates, especially in his native Campania.
- Also moves on the fringe right. Italexit will run on a joint list with fellow M5S splinter, anti-system Alternativa, Paragone has also announced some of the candidates, several with an antivaxx/anti-COVID/green pass measures profile. Also in the COVID-denialist camp' will run a list called "Vita" (Life) who is headed by MP Sara Cunial.

(*)
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.




Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Conservatopia on August 01, 2022, 01:54:20 PM
This may be incorrect but as I understand it Lega Nord (LN) is dormant and is not technically contesting this election but is loaning its symbol to Lega per Salvini Premier (LSP). All members of LN have been given memberships in LSP. My source for this is Rai News.

LN cannot dissolve or merge with LSP because of outstanding debts and the need to keep autonomists in the fold.

To make things more confusing LSP seem to be using "Italy First" branding alongside its LSP electoral symbol in posters.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Coldstream on August 01, 2022, 03:54:54 PM
It seems that PD is negotiating with Renzi:


Quote
The PD opens to Italia Viva, #Letta: "Dialogue with Renzi, he is our interlocutor"

Good news from a vote-splitting perspective, though I hope they don’t offer Renzi more than he’s worth.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: S019 on August 02, 2022, 01:05:12 AM
Calenda and Letta will meet today at 11 AM Italy time

It seems that PD is negotiating with Renzi:


Quote
The PD opens to Italia Viva, #Letta: "Dialogue with Renzi, he is our interlocutor"

Good news from a vote-splitting perspective, though I hope they don’t offer Renzi more than he’s worth.

Yesterday evening he said that Forza and Lega would toast (as in clink glasses) in the event of a PD-Azione agreement and he has been concern trolling about a “third pole.”


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 02, 2022, 06:52:03 AM
Calenda and Letta will meet today at 11 AM Italy time

It seems that PD is negotiating with Renzi:


Quote
The PD opens to Italia Viva, #Letta: "Dialogue with Renzi, he is our interlocutor"

Good news from a vote-splitting perspective, though I hope they don’t offer Renzi more than he’s worth.

Yesterday evening he said that Forza and Lega would toast (as in clink glasses) in the event of a PD-Azione agreement and he has been concern trolling about a “third pole.”

Two days ago he also joined the right-wing in accusing the PD of being the party of taxes because Letta reproposed his signature idea of raising the estate tax to pay for a grant to the youth. I think he knows that without Calenda he is going nowhere which is why he made that bizarre comment.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 02, 2022, 09:45:51 AM
And speaking of which, Letta and Calenda have reached a coalition agreement (https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2022/08/02/news/accordo_calendaletta_ecco_il_testo-360148144/?ref=RHTP-BH-I360145683-P1-S2-T1). Apparently they're going to split the FPP seats 70-30, which is frankly ridiculous when their polling numbers are more on the order of 80-20 or 85-15. I guess Calenda drove a hard bargain, and Letta felt he really needed him (if nothing else, to isolate Renzi).

But now many parties to the left of PD are dissatisfied and making noises about leaving the negotiating table with PD. We'll see what they do, but I'll still count today as a relative win for the paltry chances we have at stopping a right-wing majority.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: MRCVzla on August 02, 2022, 12:33:36 PM
And speaking of which, Letta and Calenda have reached a coalition agreement (https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2022/08/02/news/accordo_calendaletta_ecco_il_testo-360148144/?ref=RHTP-BH-I360145683-P1-S2-T1). Apparently they're going to split the FPP seats 70-30, which is frankly ridiculous when their polling numbers are more on the order of 80-20 or 85-15. I guess Calenda drove a hard bargain, and Letta felt he really needed him (if nothing else, to isolate Renzi).

But now many parties to the left of PD are dissatisfied and making noises about leaving the negotiating table with PD. We'll see what they do, but I'll still count today as a relative win for the paltry chances we have at stopping a right-wing majority.

Also in the agreement, any of the coalition' party leaders will not run in FPTP districts also neither any of the so-called "divided personalities" as formers MPs and ministers from M5S (Di Maio and co.) or FI (Carfagna, Gelmini...). That was if not the main concern for Calenda as being in the same coalition with Di Maio and likely EV/SI, also EV/SI were the ones who proposed the idea of no leaders (or high-profile politicians) in FPTP seats to court/calm down the liberals. Centre-left FPTP candidatures will mostly being local/independent/low-profile with the main ranks bet all to PR seats (while IC and/or AVS probably at risk to not gaining any seats)

Probably Letta will now do separate agreements with AVS and IC to likely ceede around 15-20% of its 70% share of FPTP candidates and some safe districts... and not write off if the agreement with the liberals will also convince Renzi' IV to finally rejoin and take some of the Azione/+Eu' 30% share of FPTP candidates.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 02, 2022, 01:52:58 PM
Probably Letta will now do separate agreements with AVS and IC to likely ceede around 15-20% of its 70% share of FPTP candidates and some safe districts... and not write off if the agreement with the liberals will also convince Renzi' IV to finally rejoin and take some of the Azione/+Eu' 30% share of FPTP candidates.

That seems pretty optimistic to me, but inshallah you're right. It would be hilarious to see Renzi be cowed like that.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: rob in cal on August 02, 2022, 05:11:48 PM
  In the recent city elections didn't the center left candidates do pretty well, even though nation wide polls were about the same as they are now. In other words, did they overperform polling?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 02, 2022, 05:41:07 PM
  In the recent city elections didn't the center left candidates do pretty well, even though nation wide polls were about the same as they are now. In other words, did they overperform polling?

In certain case yes, in some no. Locals are generally still local.

But the more important factor is that a lot of - but not all - major cities here favor the center-left alliance when compared to the national vote.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: MRCVzla on August 04, 2022, 08:03:45 PM
Sicilian regional election will be also on September 25. Regional President Nello Musumeci as resigned, according some source pressured by FI and Lega.


In other news, talks between PD and Verdi/SI continues and they put a 48-hours limit to reach an agreement and clarify their stauts within the centre-left.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 05, 2022, 04:39:05 PM
Here's this week's polling average.

FdI: 23.9%
PD/A1: 23.6%
Lega: 13.2%
M5S: 10.4%
FI: 8.2%
+E/Az: 5.5%
SI/EV: 3.4%
Italexit: 2.7%
IV: 2.6%
IC: 1.2%

Right at 45.3% (+0.2). Hypothetical center-left (now without IV which has confirmed it's out) at 33.7% (+0.4). M5S gained 0.3 points as well. Overall not much movement, the only significant change from last week is Lega losing a bit and FI and +E/Azione gaining a bit


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: xelas81 on August 05, 2022, 05:05:35 PM
It would be extremely funny but I'm assuming M5S + IV has no chance of happening?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 06, 2022, 02:02:52 PM
PD has completed agreements with SI/EV and with IC. These appear to all be separate, bilateral agreements, so it remains unclear if they'll be able to form a single cohesive coalition including +E/Az as well. Still, that should ensure that they avoid competing against each other in the vast majority of seats. It looks like PD agreed to a 80-20 division of seats with SI/EV, and a 92-8 one with IC. Again, like with Calenda earlier, these are more generous seat distributions than you'd expect from poll numbers. I'm assuming that PD will keep for itself a disproportionate share of winnable seats, though. Either that or Letta is really desperate to have an agreement at any cost (which I can respect tbh).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: FrancoAgo on August 06, 2022, 04:36:49 PM
This bilateral agreement means?
if i understand the 148 FPTP of Chamber wiuld be
84 to PD
36 to A/E+
21 to SI/EV
7 to IC
what you think?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: MRCVzla on August 06, 2022, 07:53:52 PM
This bilateral agreement means?
if i understand the 148 FPTP of Chamber wiuld be
84 to PD
36 to A/E+
21 to SI/EV
7 to IC
what you think?

The overall possible agreement in both chambers seems to be this:


The EV/SI agreement was possible also by an SI' internal vote where 61% were favorable to an alliance with PD.

Also yesterday there were some movements in the other blocs:
- Toti' Italia al Centro oficially rejoined the Centre-right and run in a join list with Lupi' Noi con l'Italia. In the same vein, the UDC (Unione di Centro) will run in a joint list with Brugnaro' Coraggio Italia, instead of run inside of Forza Italia' lists/quota. In both cases, seems FDI will ceede part of their FPTP seats quota to this minor parties.
- Mastella' Noi di Centro reached an agreement with microparty "Europeisti" by senator Raffaele Fantetti (elected in an overseas constituency) what will run at national level without collecting signature, they still run by their own with the hope of elect at least a senator in Campania (probably Mastella' wife Sandra Lonardo, running for reelection).
- Just hours after been presented at the public, Alternativa broke up its alliance with Italexit, arguing what in the Italexit quota were candidates with "neofascist profile" (allegedly related to Casapound)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 07, 2022, 06:01:17 AM
Ah, Clemente Mastella never disappoints with his CENTRIST pure inland Campania trickery. I have no idea how his wife plans to be re-elected if their microparty is running alone but hope is free.

Also very sad day for horseshoe theory when ex-M5S left-wing cranks can't even rejoin ex-M5S right-wing cranks because CasaPound is a step too far. Maybe they will go with Rizzo...


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on August 07, 2022, 09:37:02 AM
Azione leaves the agreement with PD


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Mike88 on August 07, 2022, 10:03:47 AM
Azione leaves the agreement with PD

Più Europa, Azione's alliance partner, on the other hand says that talks with PD are going well and a decision will be made in the next 48 hours:


Quote
BREAKING - Benedetto #DellaVedova: "A Più Europa the pact with the PD is fine. We will take 48 hours to decide."


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 07, 2022, 10:04:46 AM
What a joke. Hopefully he and Renzi will both crash and burn.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 07, 2022, 10:56:26 AM
I read the ANSA article with highlights from Calenda's speech and he sounded pretty delusional... he said that SI/EV are setting the tone of a campaign that will punch more against the liberal area than against the right-wing, that he thought PD had had its Bad Godesberg, and that Letta chose to make a new CLN (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Liberation_Committee) instead of putting forward a government proposal. Lol, lmao.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Coldstream on August 07, 2022, 11:28:21 AM
Never thought I’d be ranking Di Maio ahead of Renzi. I hope Renzi & Calenda crash out of Parliament with 0 seats - absolutely, predictably, appalling self centredness not to come together with the PD.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on August 07, 2022, 01:16:59 PM
Pizzarotti's outfit will run with Italia Viva.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on August 10, 2022, 11:50:47 AM
If you just look at the support for each of the parties it is clear the Right-wing bloc is in very good shape with the only worry being how effective is vote transfer.  On that, question: How prominent is the party ID of the candidate in the FPTP races on the ballots?  Namely, if the voter is just presented with a ballot of alliances with a choice of voting for the party of his or her choice and the party ID of the alliance candidate is not made clear or prominent then that would be very good news for the Right-wing alliance given the lead of the sum of their party support in polls.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: morgieb on August 10, 2022, 09:46:58 PM
What’s the difference between Lega and FdI? Aren’t they both RW populist parties?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 10, 2022, 09:58:13 PM
What’s the difference between Lega and FdI? Aren’t they both RW populist parties?

Salvini must resent the way that Meloni has supplanted him as the far right leader, perhaps the best hope for Italian Democracy is that this divide can be manipulated somehow.

I only really have a rudimentary understanding of Italian politics, but what is the difference between the Brothers of Italy and the League? Does Italy really need two major far-right parties?

Different backgrounds and approaches.

Lega was at one time the Northern League, a separatist/regionalist party for the economically advantaged north. This meant that the people who have long had a pro-League voting habit were all in the North. Salvini took over a party in disarray and declining identity in 2013 and reoriented it towards the cultural Far Right. He changed the name and revived it's fortunes, but most of their voters were still northerners.

During Conte I government, Salvini was the tail that wagged the M5S dog. Lega surged, eating up a chunk of the FI vote and a larger portion of the M5S vote. These were southern voters checking out an unfamiliar party that was saying the right stuff. We saw this to a degree in the EU elections with Lega winning almost 35% on its own and pushing down the peninsula geographically.

FdI has until now been a minor party. They have a reputation as 'nostalgic fascists' similar to VOX in Spain mainly because the party has not been big enough previously to define itself other than by its small cadre of voters and its predecessors. It was founded as a split from Forza and a merger with the old National Conservative AN (Alleanza Nazionale), so that influences its programs and traditions. FdI and the national conservative predecessors historically had a base in central Italy when compared to other conservative parties. Meloni is certainly more vocally culturally conservative on non-immigration issues than her allies.

FdI has remained in opposition during the entire 2018-2022 period, despite the populist Conte I government and the Draghi Grand Coalition. This made it attractive as Salvini fell out of favor and lost his southern vote, and then as the other Conservative parties entered the grand coalition. Those who were never quite at home with Lega but want a rightward turn - including the geographic element -  have now gone FdI.

Also Salvini, like Zemmour in France, wasn't painted in the best light following Putin's invasion of Ukraine, whereas FdI appears to have navigated that issue similar to Le Pen. But that is just one cause of many behind the evolution of the conservative vote.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: S019 on August 11, 2022, 01:36:08 AM
If you just look at the support for each of the parties it is clear the Right-wing bloc is in very good shape with the only worry being how effective is vote transfer.  On that, question: How prominent is the party ID of the candidate in the FPTP races on the ballots?  Namely, if the voter is just presented with a ballot of alliances with a choice of voting for the party of his or her choice and the party ID of the alliance candidate is not made clear or prominent then that would be very good news for the Right-wing alliance given the lead of the sum of their party support in polls.

There is one vote for both seats as strange as this sounds. People vote for a party for the list seat and whatever electoral alliance the party is in is where their vote goes for the FPTP seat. To give an example, someone may vote PD for the list seat and then their FPTP vote goes to whoever was the centre-left candidate in that constituency. Also, the candidate for the FPTP seat is listed on the ballot as are the party lists for the list seats.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on August 11, 2022, 03:12:13 AM
Indeed.

Here is the example of the designa of a ballot paper from 2018

http://www.prefettura.it/FILES/AllegatiPag/1141/Fac-Simile_Scheda_Camera_-_Circoscrizione_Lombardia_1_-_Collegio_Plurinominale_1_-_Collegio_Uninominale_6.pdf

In capital letters you have the FPTP candidates. Then behind each of them the logos of lists backing him and the names of the candidates for the PR part next to the logos.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: FrancoAgo on August 11, 2022, 04:09:46 AM
If you just look at the support for each of the parties it is clear the Right-wing bloc is in very good shape with the only worry being how effective is vote transfer.  On that, question: How prominent is the party ID of the candidate in the FPTP races on the ballots?  Namely, if the voter is just presented with a ballot of alliances with a choice of voting for the party of his or her choice and the party ID of the alliance candidate is not made clear or prominent then that would be very good news for the Right-wing alliance given the lead of the sum of their party support in polls.

There is one vote for both seats as strange as this sounds. People vote for a party for the list seat and whatever electoral alliance the party is in is where their vote goes for the FPTP seat. To give an example, someone may vote PD for the list seat and then their FPTP vote goes to whoever was the centre-left candidate in that constituency. Also, the candidate for the FPTP seat is listed on the ballot as are the party lists for the list seats.

the strange it's not this, if you vote alist that support a FPTP candidate, the vote go also to him, the strange it's the inverse if you vote the FPTP candidate your vote go to the list that support him, proportionally to their actual votes


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on August 11, 2022, 05:20:02 AM
(Bloomberg) --Italy’s centrist Azione party leader Carlo Calenda and the Italia Viva party leader Matteo Renzi are set to meet to iron out last details of an alliance ahead of snap elections next month.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 11, 2022, 07:36:05 AM
If you just look at the support for each of the parties it is clear the Right-wing bloc is in very good shape with the only worry being how effective is vote transfer.  On that, question: How prominent is the party ID of the candidate in the FPTP races on the ballots?  Namely, if the voter is just presented with a ballot of alliances with a choice of voting for the party of his or her choice and the party ID of the alliance candidate is not made clear or prominent then that would be very good news for the Right-wing alliance given the lead of the sum of their party support in polls.

There is one vote for both seats as strange as this sounds. People vote for a party for the list seat and whatever electoral alliance the party is in is where their vote goes for the FPTP seat. To give an example, someone may vote PD for the list seat and then their FPTP vote goes to whoever was the centre-left candidate in that constituency. Also, the candidate for the FPTP seat is listed on the ballot as are the party lists for the list seats.

the strange it's not this, if you vote alist that support a FPTP candidate, the vote go also to him, the strange it's the inverse if you vote the FPTP candidate your vote go to the list that support him, proportionally to their actual votes

Yeah. This has to be one of the stupidest, ugliest electoral systems ever designed. But we're stuck with it thanks to Renzi. :)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on August 11, 2022, 08:34:32 AM
https://www.euronews.com/2022/08/10/right-wing-coalition-on-course-to-win-italy-election-says-study

"Right-wing coalition on course to win Italy election, says study"

Cattaneo Institute  has it at

                             Lower House       Senate
Right wing bloc          245                   127
Left wing bloc            107                    52
Centrist bloc              17                       6  (my guess, the article says 23 in both houses)
M5S                          27                      12


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: crals on August 11, 2022, 10:59:27 AM
Bizarre that Italy has so many one-man-show microparties when the electoral system is so punishing


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Estrella on August 11, 2022, 01:26:36 PM
Bizarre that Italy has so many one-man-show microparties when the electoral system is so punishing

Over the past thirty years, Italy has demonstrated that changing the electoral system has very little impact on how politics actually works. A certain type of British (or Canadian, or American) progressive reformist should perhaps think about that.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 11, 2022, 05:56:17 PM
Carlo Calenda and Matteo Renzi finding a deal quickly is not surprising but still ridiculous in light of all their previous antics (mostly Calenda's). Unfortunately for them, the number of people interested in what they have to sell is quite small, although definitely overrepresented amongst People Of Money.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: MRCVzla on August 11, 2022, 06:52:07 PM
Also to the Azione/Italia Viva joint list (the so-called "third pole") whose frontman is Calenda, was confirmed the joint list of the minor centrist parties of the center-right coalition, the name of the list is "Noi Moderati" (Us Moderates) and their symbol is a huge mess as mixes the planned symbols of the 2 moderates list merged who each one also are mergers of 2 microparties (Noi con l'Italia+Italia al Centro and Coraggio Italia+UDC).

Oh, and the PD also presented the symbol of their "Italy Democratic and Progressive" list, with Articolo Uno, PSI and DemoS, also will ran on the list Volt Italy and some members of the Italian Radicals (part of the +Europa pact) and also supported by the microparty PRI-splinter MRE who was member and had parliamentary representation with the center-left in the 2000s. Other minor move is other microparty changing partners as Possibile is reuniting with SI and EV in the Green-left Alliance when they originally supported the Capatto' Referendum and Democracy list

Tomorrow til' Sunday evening will start the symbol extravaganza at the Viminale (Interior ministry) with the deposit of the symbol who intend to run in the September election, I recommend (Twitter feeds aside) the coverage of I Simboli della Discordia blog who gives details of those fringe microparties who intend to run (and most of them are rejected or barely make it to the ballots)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: McGarry on August 12, 2022, 07:00:19 PM
Yesterday Adinolfi (Alternative for Italy) announced he was able to collect the minimum amount of signatures required in order to run for the election. He also stated that he's trying to be safe by collecting some more signs. The list is composed by the People of Family led by Adinolfi and Exit, a new eurosceptic party founded by the former leader of CasaPound, Simone Di Stefano.
Currently there are six eurosceptic / no-vax party collecting signatures: Vita, led by Sara Cunial and other people, Strength of the People (FdP), Italexit, Unione per le cure, i diritti e le libertà, Sovereign and Popular Italy and Alternative for Italy, as I mentioned before.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 13, 2022, 04:59:45 AM
Yesterday Adinolfi (Alternative for Italy) announced he was able to collect the minimum amount of signatures required in order to run for the election. He also stated that he's trying to be safe by collecting some more signs. The list is composed by the People of Family led by Adinolfi and Exit, a new eurosceptic party founded by the former leader of CasaPound, Simone Di Stefano.
Currently there are six eurosceptic / no-vax party collecting signatures: Vita, led by Sara Cunial and other people, Strength of the People (FdP), Italexit, Unione per le cure, i diritti e le libertà, Sovereign and Popular Italy and Alternative for Italy, as I mentioned before.

Well, glad there will be a few spoiled votes on the right too (though not nearly as many as on the left).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: S019 on August 13, 2022, 11:39:51 AM
In other news, incumbent President of Sicily Nello Musemici will not again be the right’s candidate for the post, which will instead be former President of the Senate Renato Schifani. Musemici is retiring from the post, even though he had previously wanted to run again. I can only assume this is because he was upset at being cast aside in what is a pretty recent development.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: McGarry on August 13, 2022, 07:15:35 PM
In other news, incumbent President of Sicily Nello Musemici will not again be the right’s candidate for the post, which will instead be former President of the Senate Renato Schifani. Musemici is retiring from the post, even though he had previously wanted to run again. I can only assume this is because he was upset at being cast aside in what is a pretty recent development.
Musumeci was vetoed by League and Forza Italia because he was allied with Meloni, and Salvini and Berlusconi didn't want to give to Brothers of Italy both Sicily and Lazio (Lollobrigida is rumored to be the right's candidate for the next election in Lazio, which will be held in the first half of 2023). As a side note, Musumeci announced his resignation on Facebook, and not at the Regional Council. Pretty unusual.

The centre-left in Sicily chose Caterina Chinnici, but the Five Star Movement is making a lot of requests since they broke the alliance with the Democratic Party at the national level: the last one was scraping away the name of Chinnici from the Democratic Party's logo, a request denied. Not sure if the M5S will still be part of the coalition.

Last but not least, yesterday Action and Italia Viva announced their candidate: Gaetano Armao, incumbent vice President of Sicily, as an attempt to take FI's votes. Armao is a well-know person in Sicily, but I'm not sure about how many people will vote for him.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on August 15, 2022, 01:07:12 PM
PD executive was supposed to approve candidates names this morning.
Then they moved the meeting to 3pm. Then to 8pm. Now to 9.30pm.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on August 16, 2022, 11:15:18 AM
PD lists

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vxeMb0325Kc6DWVA8A9jUNLtWR6ghOF5/view

"Coalizione" are the constituencies given to allies.

Yes, Casini got Bologna senatorial constituency again.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: MRCVzla on August 16, 2022, 02:36:31 PM
The PD's (preliminary) list has been fueled of controversy in recent hours, as several important party ranks have complained of being placed in ineligible positions in the PR quota or not appearing on the lists at all, some of them they have even declined the candidacies that have been proposed to them (like Stefano Ceccanti or Alessia Morani) . Also a few posts for their partners in the "Italy Democratic and Progressive" list (despite Speranza's "capolista" and DemoS' Paolo Ciani has been placed in the very safe Roma centre House constituency).

One of the interesting battles probably will be the Roma centre Senate constituency between the until a few weeks-allies Enma Bonino (incumbent) and Carlo Calenda.

Also today were the M5S' internal primaries, with the candidature for the House and the Senate, there's was included a question about approve a select list of candidates proposed by Conte:


Summarizing also in other alliances/parties. FI turns to other football club presidents for candidates on its lists. FDI proposes former Brazilian F1 champion Emerson Fittipaldi as a candidate (in the Cdx joint list) for the South American constituency in the Senate, Italexit postulates former conservative mayor of Rome Gianni Alemmano or the sovereignists/anti-system of Sovereign and Popular Italy nominate 95-year-old actress Gina Lollobrigida also for the Senate.

In the past weekend, 101 symbols of 98 different parties/lists* were deposited at the Viminale (Ministry of Internal Affairs), many of them they are bizarre and with little chance of collecting enough signatures and/or being on the ballot, others simply to prevent someone else from presenting themselves with a similar symbology or name, some of them with internal disputes as occurs with some duplicates (such as the various reincarnations of the DC, the PLI or the Libertas Movement) or to tried to have a preventive symbol in case any of the registered parties manages to evade the collection of signatures (as the leftist Popular' Union). For more detail on the stories of these symbols, check out the I Simboli della Discordia blog (in italian): http://www.isimbolidelladiscordia.it/2022/08/elezioni-politiche-2022-i-simboli-uno.html


And 48 hours later we known what "symbols" were admitted or not and the ones who have to present more documentation (consent to present lists). Reminder: the final lists deadline is until next Monday (August 22)


Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.




Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on August 16, 2022, 03:22:44 PM
) . Also a few posts for their partners in the "Italy Democratic and Progressive" list (despite Speranza's "capolista" and DemoS' Paolo Ciani has been placed in the very safe Roma centre House constituency).

Speranza's lot got 4 seats
Speranza top in Campania 1-01
Arturo Scotto second in Tuscany 3
Nicola Stumpo top in Calabria 01-1
Federico Fornaro top in Piemonte 02-1


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Estrella on August 16, 2022, 03:26:51 PM
Very off topic, but it's so weird how during the 20th century Italy produced so much of world's cutting-edge graphic design (and design in general, of course) and yet 90% of these symbols look like they're from a 1995 middle school project – as does the official notice above them and election night graphics on every TV channel. Like, why?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 16, 2022, 05:25:13 PM
Very off topic, but it's so weird how during the 20th century Italy produced so much of world's cutting-edge graphic design (and design in general, of course) and yet 90% of these symbols look like they're from a 1995 middle school project – as does the official notice above them and election night graphics on every TV channel. Like, why?

To be fair, 90% of these symbols are either hastily made to represent fake parties or do come from 1995 and still represent fake parties. But I do miss carnations, ivies and crossed escutcheons...


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Insula Dei on August 16, 2022, 06:07:33 PM
Very off topic, but it's so weird how during the 20th century Italy produced so much of world's cutting-edge graphic design (and design in general, of course) and yet 90% of these symbols look like they're from a 1995 middle school project – as does the official notice above them and election night graphics on every TV channel. Like, why?

You're an out of touch elite, I'm afraid :(


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Estrella on August 16, 2022, 06:45:40 PM
Very off topic, but it's so weird how during the 20th century Italy produced so much of world's cutting-edge graphic design (and design in general, of course) and yet 90% of these symbols look like they're from a 1995 middle school project – as does the official notice above them and election night graphics on every TV channel. Like, why?

You're an out of touch elite, I'm afraid :(

Would this be more to taste of ordinary Italians?

()


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: kaoras on August 16, 2022, 06:48:47 PM
Very off topic, but it's so weird how during the 20th century Italy produced so much of world's cutting-edge graphic design (and design in general, of course) and yet 90% of these symbols look like they're from a 1995 middle school project – as does the official notice above them and election night graphics on every TV channel. Like, why?

You're an out of touch elite, I'm afraid :(

Would this be more to taste of ordinary Italians?

()

Is not a circle, so no.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 17, 2022, 02:55:03 AM
This is off-topic from the election, but I would like to mention that a few days ago Piero Angela died. He was by far the most popular science journalist/populizer in this country (together with his son Alberto) and absolutely an icon. RIP FF.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on August 17, 2022, 07:55:03 AM
The 15 names proposed by Conte to get high spots on M5S lists are

Stefania Patunelli, former cabinet minister in both Conte's and Draghi's government
Michele Gubitosa, Vice President of M5S
Riccardo Ricciardi, Vice President of M5S
Alessandra Todde, Vice President of M5S
Mario Turco, Vice President of M5S
Chiara Appendino, former mayor of Turin
Francesco Silvestri, head of the parliamentary group at the House
Maria Domenica Castellone,  head of the parliamentary group at the Senate
Ettore Lichere, former head of parliamentary group at the Senate
Barbara Floridia, under-secretary for education in Draghi's government Sergio Costa, former cabinet minister for environment in Conte's government
Federico Cafiero de Raho, former prosecutor
Roberto Scarpinato,  former prosecutor
Livio de Santoli, academic professor in energy management
Alfredo Colucci, the notary of the party







Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: If my soul was made of stone on August 17, 2022, 01:34:11 PM
Very off topic, but it's so weird how during the 20th century Italy produced so much of world's cutting-edge graphic design (and design in general, of course) and yet 90% of these symbols look like they're from a 1995 middle school project – as does the official notice above them and election night graphics on every TV channel. Like, why?

You're an out of touch elite, I'm afraid :(

Would this be more to taste of ordinary Italians?

()

Salvini links up with Eiffel 65 to make a new version of the "Blue (Da Ba Dee)" video where he shoots PlayStation 1 renders of Albanians


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 17, 2022, 02:27:35 PM
Very off topic, but it's so weird how during the 20th century Italy produced so much of world's cutting-edge graphic design (and design in general, of course) and yet 90% of these symbols look like they're from a 1995 middle school project – as does the official notice above them and election night graphics on every TV channel. Like, why?

You're an out of touch elite, I'm afraid :(

Would this be more to taste of ordinary Italians?

()

Salvini links up with Eiffel 65 to make a new version of the "Blue (Da Ba Dee)" video where he shoots PlayStation 1 renders of Albanians




(Green of course being Lega's color)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: If my soul was made of stone on August 17, 2022, 02:39:09 PM
Very off topic, but it's so weird how during the 20th century Italy produced so much of world's cutting-edge graphic design (and design in general, of course) and yet 90% of these symbols look like they're from a 1995 middle school project – as does the official notice above them and election night graphics on every TV channel. Like, why?

You're an out of touch elite, I'm afraid :(

Would this be more to taste of ordinary Italians?

()

Salvini links up with Eiffel 65 to make a new version of the "Blue (Da Ba Dee)" video where he shoots PlayStation 1 renders of Albanians




(Green of course being Lega's color)

I always considered "I'm blue, I would beat off a guy" the superior mondegreen, personally.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 18, 2022, 05:25:36 PM
Very off topic, but it's so weird how during the 20th century Italy produced so much of world's cutting-edge graphic design (and design in general, of course) and yet 90% of these symbols look like they're from a 1995 middle school project – as does the official notice above them and election night graphics on every TV channel. Like, why?

You're an out of touch elite, I'm afraid :(

Would this be more to taste of ordinary Italians?

()

Salvini links up with Eiffel 65 to make a new version of the "Blue (Da Ba Dee)" video where he shoots PlayStation 1 renders of Albanians

tired: this post is so 1990s because it mentions Eiffel 65 and the PS1
wired: this post is so 1990s because it mentions shooting Albanians [presumably coming off a boat]


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on August 19, 2022, 02:45:42 AM
M5S candidates
https://www.movimento5stelle.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/LISTE-DI-CANDIDATI-CAMERA.pdf
https://www.movimento5stelle.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/LISTE-DI-CANDIDATI-SENATO.pdf

Number of votes taken by candidates in the selection processs
https://www.movimento5stelle.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/ESITO-VOTAZIONI-16-AGOSTO-2022.pdf


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oliver on August 20, 2022, 06:14:36 AM
## Bi-Proportional Seat Allocation in Italy ##

I'm interested how seats are assigned to party lists in multi-member districts.

Is there any form of "bi-proportional apportionment" used in order to give proportional results by party list and by multi-member district?

Are there any papers in English or German (I don't speak any Italian)?

Best,
Oliver


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: FrancoAgo on August 20, 2022, 08:11:11 AM
## Bi-Proportional Seat Allocation in Italy ##

I'm interested how seats are assigned to party lists in multi-member districts.

Is there any form of "bi-proportional apportionment" used in order to give proportional results by party list and by multi-member district?

Are there any papers in English or German (I don't speak any Italian)?

Best,
Oliver

i'm not sure to understand, but there is only one proportional one a national level for the chamber and one a regional level for the senate


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on August 20, 2022, 08:33:21 AM
## Bi-Proportional Seat Allocation in Italy ##

I'm interested how seats are assigned to party lists in multi-member districts.

Is there any form of "bi-proportional apportionment" used in order to give proportional results by party list and by multi-member district?

Are there any papers in English or German (I don't speak any Italian)?

Best,
Oliver

i'm not sure to understand, but there is only one proportional one a national level for the chamber and one a regional level for the senate

I think he means how seats are allocated to parties in each circumscription/pluri-nominal constituency.
So the complicated thing in how the number of seats won by each party based on national share are then allocated to circumscription and then from circumscriptions to pluri-nominal constituencies.

It is biproportional because number of seats of each party is proportional to its total votes but also number of seats of each region/circumscriptions/whatever is more or less proportional to its total votes (Lombardia 1 having 16 seats while Lombardia 4 having 7 seats, etc).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on August 20, 2022, 11:43:07 AM
Amendola (under-secretary to Draghi, former European Affairs minister for Conte) got La Regina's top spot in Basilicata list. La Regina resigned this morning after some controversial social media posts were highlighted yesterday.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 20, 2022, 03:46:27 PM
Gonna pick up my polling average even though the amount of polling we're getting right now is really pathetic for being a month before a national election. Only 5 polls conducted within the past week, so take it with a lot of salt. Also the lists still aren't officially finalized, but they might as well be.

PD 23.8%
FdI 23.7%
Lega 13.2%
M5S 11.2%
FI 8.2%
A/IV 5.4%
AVS 3.3%
Italexit 2.3%
+E 2.1%
NM 1.9%
IC 0.8%

Right at 47%, Left at 30%. Lovely stuff all around.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Lord Halifax on August 22, 2022, 06:29:15 AM
Gonna pick up my polling average even though the amount of polling we're getting right now is really pathetic for being a month before a national election. Only 5 polls conducted within the past week, so take it with a lot of salt. Also the lists still aren't officially finalized, but they might as well be.

PD 23.8%
FdI 23.7%
Lega 13.2%
M5S 11.2%
FI 8.2%
A/IV 5.4%
AVS 3.3%
Italexit 2.3%
+E 2.1%
NM 1.9%
IC 0.8%

Right at 47%, Left at 30%. Lovely stuff all around.

It would be easier to get an overview if you divided the parties into right, left and others rather than just list them all in descending order. I think I'm not the only one who can't remember which side all the small ones are on.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 22, 2022, 06:31:24 AM
In fairness they struggle to remember themselves often.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 22, 2022, 06:34:38 AM
Gonna pick up my polling average even though the amount of polling we're getting right now is really pathetic for being a month before a national election. Only 5 polls conducted within the past week, so take it with a lot of salt. Also the lists still aren't officially finalized, but they might as well be.

PD 23.8%
FdI 23.7%
Lega 13.2%
M5S 11.2%
FI 8.2%
A/IV 5.4%
AVS 3.3%
Italexit 2.3%
+E 2.1%
NM 1.9%
IC 0.8%

Right at 47%, Left at 30%. Lovely stuff all around.

It would be easier to get an overview if you divided the parties into right, left and others rather than just list them all in descending order. I think I'm not the only one who can't remember which side all the small ones are on.

I mean that's why I add them up at the end. :P But sure, I can do that.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Coldstream on August 22, 2022, 06:38:57 AM
Can someone more knowledgeable than I explain why AVS didn’t support the Draghi government yet are happy to work with PD? Was it not wanting to support a government containing the right?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 22, 2022, 06:42:02 AM
Can someone more knowledgeable than I explain why AVS didn’t support the Draghi government yet are happy to work with PD? Was it not wanting to support a government containing the right?

Basically? I mean, really, it's not like the Draghi government ever had anything to offer to that side of the political spectrum. It's okay for PD because PD is an ~Institutionalist~ party first and a vaguely center-left-ish party (if you squint) second, but obviously that's not the case with AVS.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 22, 2022, 07:25:54 AM
Can someone more knowledgeable than I explain why AVS didn’t support the Draghi government yet are happy to work with PD? Was it not wanting to support a government containing the right?

Basically? I mean, really, it's not like the Draghi government ever had anything to offer to that side of the political spectrum. It's okay for PD because PD is an ~Institutionalist~ party first and a vaguely center-left-ish party (if you squint) second, but obviously that's not the case with AVS.

l mean let's be fair PD is very clearly centre-left-ish now (even if ish) and Mario Adinolfi, Il Giornale, Renzi fanboys and whoever else is screaming about THE TRANSFORMATION BACK INTO PDS can cope harder... but certainly ~Institutionalism~ is one key thing keeping together that huge jumble, parts of which have rather different priorities from others.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 22, 2022, 07:33:03 AM
In fairness they struggle to remember themselves often.

Speaking of people who never know which side they are on, the latest from our old friend Clemente Mastella is apparently that he intends to go on a hunger strike if TV shows violate the rules of equal opportunities for all parties. I'm sure this is a principled stand that he would have taken otherwise and not just because his microparty is running alone this time after he was unable to complete a deal with any of the main coalitions.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on August 22, 2022, 12:50:16 PM
Pizzarotti's outfit will run with Italia Viva.

It has already ended in tears.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Edu on August 23, 2022, 02:31:36 PM
This election seems it's going to be awful, I'll do my part to mitigate the losses and vote for the PD. I'm just waiting for the consulate to send me the electoral papers.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 23, 2022, 05:12:54 PM
Pizzarotti's outfit will run with Italia Viva.

It has already ended in tears.

As a wise man once said: lol, lmao, lol.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: MRCVzla on August 24, 2022, 02:11:45 AM
Extraofficial lists and FPTP candidates of the main 4 blocs and the main CDX (no Lega lists yet) and CSX parties (minus Impegno Civico, but their lists are on their website btw) per YouTrend: https://www.youtrend.it/2022/08/23/elezioni-politiche-2022-tutti-i-candidati-e-le-liste/

Until Monday were also the final day of recolection of signs. Paragone' Italexit, De Magistris' Unione Popolare, Rizzo' Italia Sovrana e Popolare, Adinolfi' Alternativa per l'Italia, Cunial' Vita and another antivaxx list called Forza del Popolo led by a certain Lillo Massimiliano Musso, all are certain to be on the ballot nationwide. In some of the Trento Senate constituencies (only elect FPTP seats), the centre-left and the centrist/liberal third pole will run together in the "Democratic Alliance for the Autonomy".

In Sicily news, Conte brokeup the "large camp" alliance with the PD, so the M5S will also run alone there, with Nuccio Di Paola as their Regional President candidate, Caterina Chinnici remains as the centre-left alliance. This makes some easy the way to a Schifani win, meanwhile the incumbent President Musumeci will run in the Catania Senate constituency.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Cassius on August 24, 2022, 04:29:54 AM
Can someone more knowledgeable than I explain why AVS didn’t support the Draghi government yet are happy to work with PD? Was it not wanting to support a government containing the right?

Basically? I mean, really, it's not like the Draghi government ever had anything to offer to that side of the political spectrum. It's okay for PD because PD is an ~Institutionalist~ party first and a vaguely center-left-ish party (if you squint) second, but obviously that's not the case with AVS.

l mean let's be fair PD is very clearly centre-left-ish now (even if ish) and Mario Adinolfi, Il Giornale, Renzi fanboys and whoever else is screaming about THE TRANSFORMATION BACK INTO PDS can cope harder... but certainly ~Institutionalism~ is one key thing keeping together that huge jumble, parts of which have rather different priorities from others.

Isn't Letta ex-DC (although I suppose he might have been on the left-wing)?

Edit: Hilarious but fitting that a tiny micro-party styling itself as the successor to the PSI is running as a satellite of Berlusconi's party.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 24, 2022, 04:46:46 AM

Yes. Though, I mean, you only need to look at him to know that haha.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 24, 2022, 05:48:31 AM

Yes, but it doesn't matter much [or at any rate, less than allying with AVS, his personal feud with Renzi, the general direction of the party and so on]. It does make this even more hilarious though.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 24, 2022, 10:04:47 AM

Yes, but it doesn't matter much [or at any rate, less than allying with AVS, his personal feud with Renzi, the general direction of the party and so on]. It does make this even more hilarious though.

Yeah, these days the old "ex DC vs ex PCI" divide doesn't really explain PD factional politics that well. There are tons of ex-PCI types who have turned into shameless neolibs, and even a few ex-DC who are pretty left-wing (like Rosy Bindi back in her days).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 24, 2022, 10:35:36 AM

Yes, but it doesn't matter much [or at any rate, less than allying with AVS, his personal feud with Renzi, the general direction of the party and so on]. It does make this even more hilarious though.

Yeah, these days the old "ex DC vs ex PCI" divide doesn't really explain PD factional politics that well. There are tons of ex-PCI types who have turned into shameless neolibs, and even a few ex-DC who are pretty left-wing (like Rosy Bindi back in her days).

It remains interesting and telling for other reasons but absolutely does not predict policy preferences or personal relations, yes.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 24, 2022, 12:36:55 PM

Yes, but it doesn't matter much [or at any rate, less than allying with AVS, his personal feud with Renzi, the general direction of the party and so on]. It does make this even more hilarious though.

Yeah, these days the old "ex DC vs ex PCI" divide doesn't really explain PD factional politics that well. There are tons of ex-PCI types who have turned into shameless neolibs, and even a few ex-DC who are pretty left-wing (like Rosy Bindi back in her days).

Rosy Bindi is a girlboss and we need more politicians like her... turboleftist Tuscan DC [RIP PBUH La Pira] fighting the long defeat imo.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 24, 2022, 12:49:08 PM

Yes, but it doesn't matter much [or at any rate, less than allying with AVS, his personal feud with Renzi, the general direction of the party and so on]. It does make this even more hilarious though.

Yeah, these days the old "ex DC vs ex PCI" divide doesn't really explain PD factional politics that well. There are tons of ex-PCI types who have turned into shameless neolibs, and even a few ex-DC who are pretty left-wing (like Rosy Bindi back in her days).

It remains interesting and telling for other reasons but absolutely does not predict policy preferences or personal relations, yes.

It predicts a depressing amount of bullsh**t factional thinking however. Economic turboliberals calling each other comrades... is central Emilia just the Dąbrowa Basin with ravioli instead of pierogi? many people are saying this.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on August 24, 2022, 12:55:01 PM

Yes, but it doesn't matter much [or at any rate, less than allying with AVS, his personal feud with Renzi, the general direction of the party and so on]. It does make this even more hilarious though.

Yeah, these days the old "ex DC vs ex PCI" divide doesn't really explain PD factional politics that well. There are tons of ex-PCI types who have turned into shameless neolibs, and even a few ex-DC who are pretty left-wing (like Rosy Bindi back in her days).

It remains interesting and telling for other reasons but absolutely does not predict policy preferences or personal relations, yes.

It predicts a depressing amount of bullsh**t factional thinking however. Economic turboliberals calling each other comrades... is central Emilia just the Dąbrowa Basin with ravioli instead of pierogi? many people are saying this.
I think the levels of casual clientelism ouroboros practiced by your typical Dąbrowa Basin SLD (sorry, NOWA LEWICA) apparatchik may put even Sicilian politicians to shame sometimes, but basically yes.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 24, 2022, 01:03:17 PM

Yes, but it doesn't matter much [or at any rate, less than allying with AVS, his personal feud with Renzi, the general direction of the party and so on]. It does make this even more hilarious though.

Yeah, these days the old "ex DC vs ex PCI" divide doesn't really explain PD factional politics that well. There are tons of ex-PCI types who have turned into shameless neolibs, and even a few ex-DC who are pretty left-wing (like Rosy Bindi back in her days).

It remains interesting and telling for other reasons but absolutely does not predict policy preferences or personal relations, yes.

It predicts a depressing amount of bullsh**t factional thinking however. Economic turboliberals calling each other comrades... is central Emilia just the Dąbrowa Basin with ravioli instead of pierogi? many people are saying this.
I think the levels of casual clientelism ouroboros practiced by your typical Dąbrowa Basin SLD (sorry, NOWA LEWICA) apparatchik may put even Sicilian politicians to shame sometimes, but basically yes.

Ah, but consider: did any Dąbrowa Basin party apparatchik ever do something as egregious as the Sack of Palermo [obligatory Al bait after the you bait of my previous post]?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on August 24, 2022, 02:03:30 PM

Yes, but it doesn't matter much [or at any rate, less than allying with AVS, his personal feud with Renzi, the general direction of the party and so on]. It does make this even more hilarious though.

Yeah, these days the old "ex DC vs ex PCI" divide doesn't really explain PD factional politics that well. There are tons of ex-PCI types who have turned into shameless neolibs, and even a few ex-DC who are pretty left-wing (like Rosy Bindi back in her days).

It remains interesting and telling for other reasons but absolutely does not predict policy preferences or personal relations, yes.

It predicts a depressing amount of bullsh**t factional thinking however. Economic turboliberals calling each other comrades... is central Emilia just the Dąbrowa Basin with ravioli instead of pierogi? many people are saying this.
I think the levels of casual clientelism ouroboros practiced by your typical Dąbrowa Basin SLD (sorry, NOWA LEWICA) apparatchik may put even Sicilian politicians to shame sometimes, but basically yes.

Ah, but consider: did any Dąbrowa Basin party apparatchik ever do something as egregious as the Sack of Palermo [obligatory Al bait after the you bait of my previous post]?
You've got me there, maybe a bit further north in, say, Starachowice though. That said, how many Sicilians ever almost fell for con artists who pretended to be members of the Sovereign Military Order of Malta offering the city 40 million dollars they (obviously) didn't have in exchange for IOUs?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 25, 2022, 07:20:41 AM
This poll showed up in my feed, and I actually like it a lot. Its a poll of party support by geographic region just with an additional step. PD+ is roughly evenly dispersed, FI and Lega are concentrated in the north as suspected, M5S is still strong in the south but FdI has surpassed them and will no doubt sweep a lot of the FPTP seats.



Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: parochial boy on August 25, 2022, 07:36:10 AM
Lazio fans actually less fash than I would have expected.

Shame there aren't any numbers for Livorno.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Coldstream on August 25, 2022, 07:42:11 AM
Lazio fans actually less fash than I would have expected.

Shame there aren't any numbers for Livorno.

I went to Livorno once and it struck me as the perfect place for 21st century RW populists to get power. History of working class movement, combined with huge decay, crumbling infrastructure and general poverty compared to Pisa & Florence. So it pleased me when I found out the left still hold firm there, shows that trends aren’t universal etc.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 25, 2022, 10:53:11 AM
Lazio fans actually less fash than I would have expected.

Shame there aren't any numbers for Livorno.

I went to Livorno once and it struck me as the perfect place for 21st century RW populists to get power. History of working class movement, combined with huge decay, crumbling infrastructure and general poverty compared to Pisa & Florence. So it pleased me when I found out the left still hold firm there, shows that trends aren’t universal etc.

I don't have a sure explanation for this, but I think there's a level of "regional entrenchedness" of the mainstream centre-left and in addition Livorno has strong radical tendencies (incredibly high number of votes for the extraparliamentary far left recently). The post-industrial-ness has of course also manifested in great M5S results by regional standards - and it had a M5S mayor from 2014 to 2019 - which after all defines such places even better than right-wing populist strength.

Separately, I did not find Livorno to look especially bad? If you want a place with infamously crumbling infrastructure and a much bigger decline at least in population terms I know one that starts with G not too far of course.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oppo on August 25, 2022, 12:15:58 PM
In fairness they struggle to remember themselves often.

Speaking of people who never know which side they are on, the latest from our old friend Clemente Mastella is apparently that he intends to go on a hunger strike if TV shows violate the rules of equal opportunities for all parties. I'm sure this is a principled stand that he would have taken otherwise and not just because his microparty is running alone this time after he was unable to complete a deal with any of the main coalitions.
Mastella is so goofy…I think it’s hilarious that he brought down Prodi’s government bc his wife was exposed for corruption and all parties refused to form an alliance with him (Berlusconi said polls showed he would lose 12% support lmao)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Coldstream on August 25, 2022, 01:35:00 PM
Lazio fans actually less fash than I would have expected.

Shame there aren't any numbers for Livorno.

I went to Livorno once and it struck me as the perfect place for 21st century RW populists to get power. History of working class movement, combined with huge decay, crumbling infrastructure and general poverty compared to Pisa & Florence. So it pleased me when I found out the left still hold firm there, shows that trends aren’t universal etc.

I don't have a sure explanation for this, but I think there's a level of "regional entrenchedness" of the mainstream centre-left and in addition Livorno has strong radical tendencies (incredibly high number of votes for the extraparliamentary far left recently). The post-industrial-ness has of course also manifested in great M5S results by regional standards - and it had a M5S mayor from 2014 to 2019 - which after all defines such places even better than right-wing populist strength.

Separately, I did not find Livorno to look especially bad? If you want a place with infamously crumbling infrastructure and a much bigger decline at least in population terms I know one that starts with G not too far of course.

Perhaps it was just the juxtaposition of seeing Pisa & Florence in the same week, but to me it seemed like the whole city was crumbling. Don’t mistake me I think it’s a lovely place and I really liked it there! - I just thought it reminded me of Red Wall types in the UK.

One thing I also found odd is that in an undeniably left wing city, there were still statues of slaves in chains (I think Moors is how they are described on the statue). As someone who grew up in Bristol this seemed surprising!


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 25, 2022, 03:45:56 PM
Lazio fans actually less fash than I would have expected.

Shame there aren't any numbers for Livorno.

I went to Livorno once and it struck me as the perfect place for 21st century RW populists to get power. History of working class movement, combined with huge decay, crumbling infrastructure and general poverty compared to Pisa & Florence. So it pleased me when I found out the left still hold firm there, shows that trends aren’t universal etc.

I don't have a sure explanation for this, but I think there's a level of "regional entrenchedness" of the mainstream centre-left and in addition Livorno has strong radical tendencies (incredibly high number of votes for the extraparliamentary far left recently). The post-industrial-ness has of course also manifested in great M5S results by regional standards - and it had a M5S mayor from 2014 to 2019 - which after all defines such places even better than right-wing populist strength.

Separately, I did not find Livorno to look especially bad? If you want a place with infamously crumbling infrastructure and a much bigger decline at least in population terms I know one that starts with G not too far of course.

Perhaps it was just the juxtaposition of seeing Pisa & Florence in the same week, but to me it seemed like the whole city was crumbling. Don’t mistake me I think it’s a lovely place and I really liked it there! - I just thought it reminded me of Red Wall types in the UK.

One thing I also found odd is that in an undeniably left wing city, there were still statues of slaves in chains (I think Moors is how they are described on the statue). As someone who grew up in Bristol this seemed surprising!

Oh for sure it is very different from Pisa and Florence. I guess the best comparison in the UK would be Liverpool (although Livorno is still not remotely as left-wing).

And yes I also saw the statue of the four enchained Moors. It certainly is a bit jarring... but I don't find it surprising - Statues Discourse has much less salience here.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 27, 2022, 07:10:53 PM
Once again not that many polls this week - just six conducted since last Saturday. Pretty amazing when you consider we're 4 weeks away from the election and just 2 weeks away from the polling ban. Anyway, not much new under the sun.

FdI: 24.6%
Lega: 13.3%
FI: 7.9%
NM: 1.1% (1.6% when polled)
Total Right: 46.9%

PD: 22.5%
AVS: 3.2%
+E: 1.6% (1.9% when polled)
IC: 0.5% (0.8% when polled)
Total Center-Left: 27.8%

M5S: 11.1%

A-IV: 6.0%

Italexit: 2.7%

UP: 0.4% (1.2% when polled)

Compared to last week's average, the right is 0.1 down, the left is 2.2% down (f**king put a bullet in my head), M5S is 0.1 down, and A-IV is 0.6 up (please end it now). So surprisingly there are more undecideds than last week, although it might just be an artifact of the pollsters.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 28, 2022, 12:46:53 AM
This is going to be an absolute bloody massacre isn't it?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 28, 2022, 04:48:30 AM
This is going to be an absolute bloody massacre isn't it?

Oh yes, yes it is.

The margins really matter, though. With two thirds of the seats the right can unilaterally change the constitution without need for a referendum. And with about ~63% of the seats, there's a decent chance that Lega and FdI can have legislative majorities of their own without needing to consult with more "moderate" forces. Below that margin, the damages should be more contained, although either way it will be a dark time for Italy.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 28, 2022, 04:55:20 AM
Of course, because the electoral system is absolute dogsh*t, we have no idea what popular vote margin would translate to what seat counts (there have been some estimates of the district-level results, but they're only worth so much). So we'll just have to find out in a month if democracy survives! :)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 28, 2022, 05:59:54 AM
Why is the right currently so insanely popular?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 28, 2022, 07:09:52 AM
Why is the right currently so insanely popular?

More M5S is both seen as part of the left block after the past few years, but is not accepted as part of that alliance.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: palandio on August 28, 2022, 07:34:08 AM
Yes, on average during the Second Republic the Right has always been a bit stronger than the Left. When there was still near-perfect bipolarism that meant on average more than 50% for the right-of-center bloc. The Five Stars managed to attract voters from both Left and Right, but a majority of their voters from the Right has now returned to the Right. Additionally of course there have been some movements between the blocs. The Right has attracted some votes from the Left (often the movement has been Left -> Five Stars -> Right), Renzi/Calenda have attracted some voters from both Right and Left, and the Left has attracted some voters from the Right. The Five Stars vote-wise by now draw mostly from the left-of-center genepool. So the Left in a wider sense in now split between the PD-led bloc, the Five Stars and Renzi/Calenda (who are not left-wing of course, but genepool PD).

Hence 47% for the main right-of-center bloc is not insanely high by pre-Five Stars standards.

What has changed is the distribution of the right-of-center vote itself. Both FdI and Lega are arguably more right-wing than Forza Italia.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 28, 2022, 07:45:43 AM
Why is the right currently so insanely popular?

More M5S is both seen as part of the left block after the past few years, but is not accepted as part of that alliance.

Basically what happened is that the M5S broad #Populist <3 coalition of 2018 really did transcend ideological cleavages in a lot of ways. To considerably simplify, about half of it was "right-wing" populists who defected to Salvini during the years of the yellow-green government, and then to Meloni since Salvini started making a fool of himself. Meanwhile, the "left-wing" half of the party has largely remained (there has been some flow back to the left, and indeed PD is polling 5 points or so above its 2018 numbers, but not nearly as much). So we are indeed left in a situation where the broad "left" of the Italian political spectrum is split while the right is united.

There's also a general sense that the right deserves to have "its turn" in power, under the pretext that PD was in government in some form or another since 2011 except for the brief yellow-green interlude. Which is silly, of course, because in all of these governments except for the equally brief yellow-red interlude, it was in coalition with elements of the right. But still, for better or worse, the PD is perceived as the incumbent while the right is perceived more as the challenger. And, of course, this is a very anti-incumbent time for Italy.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oppo on August 28, 2022, 10:20:18 AM
New projections out for the Chamber of Deputies…the CdX has a 99.4% chance of winning a majority



Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: palandio on August 28, 2022, 02:05:57 PM
New projections out for the Chamber of Deputies…the CdX has a 99.4% chance of winning a majority



At first I wanted to say that it would have made more sense to order the seats from left-leaning to right-leaning instead of from "most competitive" to "least competitive" for a variety of reasons, but then I noticed that with a few ecceptions for Scandicci, Florence and Bologna the order wouldn't change all that much.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oppo on August 29, 2022, 09:22:22 AM


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Zinneke on August 29, 2022, 02:03:34 PM
Lazio fans actually less fash than I would have expected.

Shame there aren't any numbers for Livorno.

Tbh I am more surprised Atalanta are so right-wing ( have seen Che flags in their sector, and their friendship with Eintracht Frankfurt), but all this shows is that Ultras and hools deform the political perception of a club's fanbase in 90 per cent of cases. Livorno are probably an exception in that respect, with other clubs like Sankt-Pauli, Rayo Vallecano where you have to be blind not to see the club is political in itself. But I see with my club that there is a massive difference between the political ideology of one or two dominant supporters groups and the rest of the fanbase, I see it in places like Charleroi, Eupen (right-wing hard cores with otherwise probably left-voting fanbase) too.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Lord Halifax on August 30, 2022, 12:59:23 AM

The margins really matter, though. With two thirds of the seats the right can unilaterally change the constitution without need for a referendum.

what sort of constitutional changes would they like?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 30, 2022, 06:18:13 AM

The margins really matter, though. With two thirds of the seats the right can unilaterally change the constitution without need for a referendum.

what sort of constitutional changes would they like?

The main thing they've been talking about is "presidentialism" - which would entail directly electing the President and almost certainly increasing its powers beyond the largely ceremonial role it currently holds. Berlusconi has always been a fervent proponent of that, and in the even of such a reform he'd almost certainly run for the job (whether he'd win is a whole other question). Salvini and Meloni have also been supportive of the idea, so it's pretty much a guarantee if they have a supermajority.

On top of that, it's very likely that Salvini would insist on some provision for "fiscal autonomy" for regions (which would obviously benefit the rich Northern regions, are they're the one with the large tax bases to make use of it). This might be tempered by the need to keep some degree of support in the South, but only to some extent. Berlusconi is very likely to support some this given his own base of support, and Meloni likely will too.

There might also be some efforts to rein in the power of the judiciary, as that has also been a longtime battle cry of the right, but given the recent failure of the referendums in that sense I'm not sure how much appetite there is for it now.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 30, 2022, 07:04:22 AM
For the most part it would be a return to how things were the last time they were in charge, which, well,  was substantially responsible for the complete mess the country has been in (is still in) subsequently...


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: crals on August 30, 2022, 08:24:48 AM
So the combined total of the PD and friends, Conte and Renzi/Calenda is not too far away from the right-wing alliance, but they might hand them a two thirds majority nonetheless thanks to egos and the very questionable electoral system. How depressing.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: palandio on August 30, 2022, 02:30:16 PM
So the combined total of the PD and friends, Conte and Renzi/Calenda is not too far away from the right-wing alliance, but they might hand them a two thirds majority nonetheless thanks to egos and the very questionable electoral system. How depressing.

I mean there are reasons for the split that go beyond egos.

Others have complained that the PD is treated like it has been governing alone for the last decade. And yes, it's unfair. But the PD is the only (the only stable one at least) party that has defended the state and its institutions again and again, over and over. The amount of self-identification with the institutions and the self-image as "the only adults in the house" (despite all the infighting) is maybe what keeps the main part of the PD and its remaining voter base together despite all the infighting. The PD is identified with the state to a degree that most other parties in the world are not.

On the other hand no European country has seen the same amount of stagnation and relative impoverishment as has Italy. (You can make a point for Greece during the last 13-14 years, but before that Greece was growing fast. Italy has been shrinking for a long time.) The permanent crisis has hit hard on significant parts of the traditionally left-wing voter base. And large parts of the PD have been unable to find an answer that would convince them.

Now there is a cleavage between the Five Stars on one side and the PD on the other side, with Calenda/Renzi taking the PD position on steroids to a degree that they again seem almost opposition-like. The Five Stars are the expression of impoverishment, both in the South and in working-class neighborhoods of the North and Center. Their political ineffectiveness doesn't really change that.

The problem is that the Italian center-left (in a broader sense) and its voter base don't have a common political vision that would go beyond keeping the Right out of power.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 31, 2022, 11:47:50 AM
While the Right has been talking about "presidentialism" (in a vague sense - the only specific proposal they have put forward is indeed direct elections for the President of the Republic, which could mean a lot of different things in practice), we should mention that Calenzi have proposed the direct election of the President of the Council, turning the office into "Italy's mayor" in their words (although I'm assuming they wouldn't abolish the Quirinal, so that it would look like Israel at the turn of the century more than our local government). Truly big brains!


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 31, 2022, 11:49:46 AM
For the most part it would be a return to how things were the last time they were in charge, which, well,  was substantially responsible for the complete mess the country has been in (is still in) subsequently...

In some ways it might actually be better, because I assume the current composition and strength will mean less interest in laws meant to shield His Lowness and in creative economics (also those of us who remember the Lega Nord of yesteryear know that Salvini comes off as comparatively normal somehow). On the other hand, it's likely to be more radical and unbridled in its aims...


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on August 31, 2022, 12:32:11 PM
So is Meloni likely to be the next PM?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 03, 2022, 05:35:42 PM
Pollsters finally seem to be waking up. We've had 12 individual firm giving us polling results in the past week or so, which hopefully should lead to a more robust average. Of course, that's no guarantee of accuracy, but at least we're not completely in the dark (though we will be soon since we only have one more week before the polling blackout).

FdI: 24.2%
Lega: 12.9%
FI: 8.1%
NM: 1.7% (1.8% when included)
Total Right: 46.9%

PD: 22.3%
AVS: 3.6%
+E: 1.9% (2.1% when included)
IC: 1.0% (1.1% when included)
Total Center-Left: 28.8%

M5S: 11.8%

A-IV: 6.2%

Italexit: 2.8%

UP: 0.5% (1.2% when included)


Well, new polls or not, there still wasn't much change this week. The right's total is actually identical from last week. The left has recovered a point (although that might be due to pollsters finally starting to bother polling smaller coalition partners) but is still nowhere near where it needs to be to close the gap. M5S is also, somehow, gaining back support (+0.7 from last week), while A-IV seems to be plateauing and Italexit inches ever closer to the 3% threshold.

We'll see if any meaningful trends start setting in next week - it'll be our last chance to guess what the trends will be until September 25th, so hopefully they'll give us some room for hope...


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 04, 2022, 05:49:58 AM
Ok, so there are 2 outcomes I am slightly scared of (even within how terrible this election is) so I will ask how likely both scenarios are:

a) The 3 right wing parties adding up to a "constitutional majority"/being able to amend the constitution unilaterally without referendum. Which from what I can tell would mean a 2/3 majority?
 
b) FdI+Lega adding up to a majority by themselves, not needing Forza Italia. Not like Berlusconi is going to be a particularly good moderating force, but it's better than nothing I suppose.

Is either scenario likely to happen?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 04, 2022, 08:03:25 AM
Ok, so there are 2 outcomes I am slightly scared of (even within how terrible this election is) so I will ask how likely both scenarios are:

a) The 3 right wing parties adding up to a "constitutional majority"/being able to amend the constitution unilaterally without referendum. Which from what I can tell would mean a 2/3 majority?
 
b) FdI+Lega adding up to a majority by themselves, not needing Forza Italia. Not like Berlusconi is going to be a particularly good moderating force, but it's better than nothing I suppose.

Is either scenario likely to happen?

The general consensus on a) is that it's a stretch goal for the right, even with its current levels of support. It's definitely achievable, but it would probably require them overperforming current polls by a few points. If they do, then all hell breaks loose.

The likelihood of b) is harder to ascertain, but it's probably a little more likely than a). My best guess is that it would require the coalition winning ~63% of the seats, which is definitely within reach, but it also depends on the internal division of constituencies among the parties, which I haven't really drilled down on. If Forza Italia has more safe seats, the threshold would be higher. Still, this is a strong possibility and definitely one of the things to watch on September 25th.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 05, 2022, 06:58:39 AM
Is it me or does it seem that M5S and the Centrist coalition have been gaining ground against both the Right wing and Left wing blocs?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: rc18 on September 05, 2022, 11:49:20 AM
Yeah, it's just you.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 05, 2022, 01:46:14 PM
M5S has gained maybe a point or two in the past month or so, yes. Of course, its polling a month or so ago was at its lowed in the entire legislature, so that's not exactly a stunning rebound. Still, it might indeed be possible that Conte actually benefited from pulling the plug on Draghi - a deeply worrisome proposition as it validates all of the M5S' worst instincts.

As for the ""third pole"" (lol, sure), it doesn't really make sense to say that it's gained or lost, since it has just barely established itself as a coherent block. That said, I'll admit that it is polling a little higher than I was expecting it to (although I still think it has more room to fall than grow come election day).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oppo on September 05, 2022, 04:00:34 PM
Not the endorsement the Five Star Movement was looking for…



Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Coldstream on September 07, 2022, 05:27:03 PM
M5S has gained maybe a point or two in the past month or so, yes. Of course, its polling a month or so ago was at its lowed in the entire legislature, so that's not exactly a stunning rebound. Still, it might indeed be possible that Conte actually benefited from pulling the plug on Draghi - a deeply worrisome proposition as it validates all of the M5S' worst instincts.

As for the ""third pole"" (lol, sure), it doesn't really make sense to say that it's gained or lost, since it has just barely established itself as a coherent block. That said, I'll admit that it is polling a little higher than I was expecting it to (although I still think it has more room to fall than grow come election day).

I don’t wish to sound solipsistic, but there’s no real way around it. Why on Earth is anyone voting for Calenda/Renzi? Who looks at Enrico Letta and thinks “this man is an extremist who needs to be reigned in by Renzi” who doesn’t just vote for the right.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: FrancoAgo on September 07, 2022, 06:30:34 PM
some people think that renzi and calenda are leftist, more leftist of the PD...
i know a young man call himself communist* and vote and it's member of the Calenda party

* it's clear that he is not know what he tell


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: omar04 on September 07, 2022, 07:18:05 PM
some people think that renzi and calenda are leftist, more leftist of the PD...
i know a young man call himself communist* and vote and it's member of the Calenda party

* it's clear that he is not know what he tell

He can't stomach voting for the ISP?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_and_Popular_Italy


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oppo on September 07, 2022, 08:56:27 PM
some people think that renzi and calenda are leftist, more leftist of the PD...
i know a young man call himself communist* and vote and it's member of the Calenda party

* it's clear that he is not know what he tell
This is as dumb as when Salvini said Berlinguer would vote Lega if he was alive today


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 08, 2022, 12:36:50 PM
M5S has gained maybe a point or two in the past month or so, yes. Of course, its polling a month or so ago was at its lowed in the entire legislature, so that's not exactly a stunning rebound. Still, it might indeed be possible that Conte actually benefited from pulling the plug on Draghi - a deeply worrisome proposition as it validates all of the M5S' worst instincts.

As for the ""third pole"" (lol, sure), it doesn't really make sense to say that it's gained or lost, since it has just barely established itself as a coherent block. That said, I'll admit that it is polling a little higher than I was expecting it to (although I still think it has more room to fall than grow come election day).

I don’t wish to sound solipsistic, but there’s no real way around it. Why on Earth is anyone voting for Calenda/Renzi? Who looks at Enrico Letta and thinks “this man is an extremist who needs to be reigned in by Renzi” who doesn’t just vote for the right.

I don't think anyone (who isn't very right-wing anyway) thinks Letta is an extremist. They think he has allied with extremists - or just with plain idiots in the case of Di Maio - or that he is incoherent and perhaps untrustworthy. I've also heard people who have known him personally say that he isn't really interested in campaigning. But even if they did - and I find that as silly as you do - you are probably underestimating the hostility towards the Right, more so this Right that at least some old Italians who are pretty conservative have... and have for understandable reasons.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: FrancoAgo on September 08, 2022, 04:10:37 PM
some people think that renzi and calenda are leftist, more leftist of the PD...
i know a young man call himself communist* and vote and it's member of the Calenda party

* it's clear that he is not know what he tell

He can't stomach voting for the ISP?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_and_Popular_Italy

probably he think they are not leftist, next time i meet him i ask


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2022, 05:01:00 AM
Bloomberg is doing their own polling average and this week they have MS5 and Centrist bloc gaining ground from both the Right and Left blocs

                         Latest Week, %      Prev Week, %        Change, pp    
Right                            46.2                     47.1                     -0.9    
Center-left                    27.9                     28.9                     -1    
Five Star                       12.6                     11.4                    1.2    
Centrist coalition             6.5                       5.8                    0.7    


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 10, 2022, 03:58:28 PM
Well, here we are. Yesterday was the last day to publish polls, and of course every pollster (including plenty with dubious track record) rushed to get their final survey out. There's been a whopping 27 polls published since 09/03. Many pollsters published multiple ones, but I only kept each firm's final poll, leaving a still robust total of 20. Of course, that's no guarantee that they'll actually pan out, especially since the election is in two weeks. Still, this is the best picture we're going to get, so we'll have to make do with it until the 25th.

FdI: 24.9%
Lega: 12.1%
FI: 7.7%
NM: 1.3% (1.4% when included)
Total Right: 46%

PD: 21.5%
AVS: 3.6%
+E: 1.8% (1.9% when included)
IC: 1% (1.2% when included)
Total Center-Left: 27%

M5S: 13.4%

A-IV: 6.7%

Italexit: 2.7% (2.8% when included)

UP: 0.5% (1.2% when included)

Both major camps have lost ground since last week, but the left more so (-1.8, compared to -0.9 for the right). M5S meanwhile really seems to be the big winner of this campaign so far, having regained another 1.6 points from last week (mostly at the expense of PD it would seem). And A-IV bafflingly, inexplicably has also gained another 0.5 points. So, we're entering the final two weeks on a fragmented political landscape, but one still dominated by the right - and with a 19-point margin, it's still well positioned to sweep the FPP seats.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: MRCVzla on September 14, 2022, 06:30:50 PM
Utility links (all links in Italian):
Candidate lists
Interior Ministry: https://dait.interno.gov.it/elezioni/trasparenza/elezioni-politiche-2022
https://candidatipolitiche2022.netlify.app/

Italian party quiz
Trovapartito (Sky TG24/YouTrend): https://tg24.sky.it/politica/elezioni/trova-partito-per-chi-votare
Itamat: https://itamat.it/
Politicometro (Ultimora.net): https://politicometro.net/ (also on Telegram: https://t.me/Politicometro_Bot )
Navigatore Politico (Quotidiano Nazionale): https://euandi2019.eui.eu/survey/it/navigatorepolitico2022.html

GEDI/Repubblica' Candidate search by municipality+Political quiz (Partitometro): https://lab.gedidigital.it/gedi-visual/2022/candidati-elezioni-25-settembre-collegi-comuni/

Seat-o-meter calculator
Seggiometro (Sky TG24/YouTrend): https://tg24.sky.it/politica/approfondimenti/simulatore-elezioni-maggioranza-parlamento-numero-seggi


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 18, 2022, 05:43:40 AM
This is going to be the Italian version of SaintStan's A Blank Canvas isn't it.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: MRCVzla on September 20, 2022, 08:03:15 AM
As polls are banned since last week, some of the Italian political sites are trying in their socials put some trends of the banned polls... and seems the M5S will be recovering some votes in the South (as happened in 2013 and 2018) at cost of the center-left, so Letta' campaign (already much of communicational disaster since the start) is concentrating all its efforts there (to perhaps prevent the pentastellatos from winning some FPTP seats, especially in the Naples area).

The rest of the campaign focuses mainly on the problems arising from the situation in Ukraine, inflation, rising bills, security and inmigration. Meloni's campaign has been cautious (except when a MP publicly requested to the Peppa Pig episode about a lesbian couple or some other praising Hitler), she is really portraying a PM profile in the rest of the campaign as FdI is still rising while Lega's weak, Salvini still wants to "retaining" immigrant rescue boats and imposing his "flax tax" while Berlusconi is becoming popular on TikTok while he wants to continue to ensure that the center-right coalition will remain pro-EU and pro-NATO. Probably the center-right is not going to eliminate but modify in its own way the "citizenship tax" (M5S' star measure). The centrist "third pole" seems have no other major policy that keep Draghi as PM despite he's not wanting again the job. There were some "debates" at political forums as well a Letta-Meloni face-to-face at Corriere della Sera' website, but not a proper TV debate (Mentana' La7 seems still have is offer up to have one with the four major leaders for this Thursday, but is really unlikely), it seems that they are very comfortable with the interview/press conference format (adjusted with the "par condicio" time limit, more than 30 minutes for lists in Parliament, and like less than 10-15 minutes for the extraparliamentary ones).

The update came for this, if remember that Cappato guy from the Radicals ("high" on social justice-direct democracy) who was trying to run only collecting digital signatures bc they accepted in this year' referendums and hopping a last minute' rule to validate that at general election level, well, all of their lists were rejected so he appealed at a Milano court and if they ruled in his favor, the elections should have to be delayed so their "Referendum and Democracy" lists can be accepted and reimpress all the ballots with their symbol. The court ruled today and... their rejected his appeal (without much surprise, he still wants to appeal to international instances, good luck with that) so the elections are going as scheduled this Sunday (the postal abroad vote is ongoing since some weeks ago).

- Meloni is running in L'Aquila Camera district
- Berlusconi is running in the Monza Senate district, city of the newly promoted Serie A team which he owns (while his younger girlfriend is running in a safe Sicilian Camera seat)
- Three interesting races to watch:
1) Bologna Senate: Pierferdinando Casini running again with the centre-left (this time if he's elected will seat in the PD group) against the always controversial Vittorio Sgarbi (in a Noi Moderati quota, and with some support of his celebrity friends).
2) Roma centre Senate: Emma Bonino vs. Carlo Calenda... but the vote division of the latter could cause the victory of the FdI' Cdx candidate.
3) Napoli-Fuorigrotta Camera: three Draghi ministers running in the same district, Luigi Di Maio (IC), Mara Carfagna (Azione/IV) and Sergio Costa (M5S), who will come out first among them or the Cdx candidate
- To watch also the 3% threshold race at PR level, will the mainstream left (Verdi-Sinistra) not underpolling again?, Italexit will surpass it?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 20, 2022, 08:06:02 AM
Will be interesting to see if M5S outperforms pre-election polls for the third general election in a row.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: NewYorkExpress on September 20, 2022, 08:01:00 PM
The Brothers of Italy sacked one of their candidates for statements comparing Meloni and Hitler and calling both "great leaders". (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62971802)

Quote
The far-right Italian party Brothers of Italy, tipped to win Sunday's election, has suspended one of its candidates for praising Adolf Hitler on social media.

In a 2014 Facebook post, Calogero Pisano, a party co-ordinator in Agrigento in Sicily, compared party leader Giorgia Meloni to "a great statesman of 70 years ago".

He added that he was referring to a "German" and not Benito Mussolini.

The party said Mr Pisano no longer represented it at any level.

Ms Meloni has been trying to distance the Brothers of Italy from its neo-fascist roots.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Senator Incitatus on September 20, 2022, 09:34:12 PM
I looked up Pisano, and he has clearly lost a lot of weight in the past few years. More proof that being fat causes bad opinions.

()

()


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 21, 2022, 06:11:08 AM
Gotta love how talking about fascism in FdI gets you branded as a radical-chic lefty fearmonger until one of them lets the mask slip for a second. And then of course everyone promptly forgets the next day.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - #StopTheConte
Post by: Oppo on September 21, 2022, 03:00:58 PM
Electoral system: Rosatellum (modified per reduction of MPs); Chamber: 245 PR, 147 FPTP, 8 Abroad; Senate: 122 PR, 74 FPTP, 4 Abroad (1 per each constituency); PR thresholds: 10% per coalitions, 3% per party list (1% to be included in the PR distribution) Linguistic minorites threshold (SVP in Trentino-Alto Adige/South Tyrol) is 20% to be included in Chamber' PR distribution (in Senate, the South Tyrol will only elect by their 6 fixed FPTP seats)
Sorry for the dumb question, but does this mean that a party running on its own needs 3%, while a party running in a coalition needs 1% of the total vote to get PMs?
Also:
Are Az/+Eu a party list or a coalition for threshold purposes?
Is Giovanni Toti's outfit running with IV or is he seeking a path back to the centre right?
I was also wondering if some of the controversial politicians of the (not-so) distant past are still vying for relevancy or are they retired now: Gianfranco Fini and Nichi Vendola come to mind.

Vendola announced his return to active politics with the AVS


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 22, 2022, 12:39:07 PM
I wonder what the 538 odds would be for who wins here.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 22, 2022, 02:58:23 PM
I wonder what the 538 odds would be for who wins here.

With a 15 to 20-points lead? Probably around 95%. Maybe 90% if they account for the historical unreliability of Italian polls and the 2-weeks gap.

On that note though, a friend of mine is related to certain well-connected people who happen to have gotten their hands on an illegal poll. Mostly the numbers it shows aren't too different from those pre-09/10, but the main difference seems to be Lega losing and M5S gaining. So I guess that's the main place to look out for over- and underperformances this Sunday.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: MRCVzla on September 22, 2022, 03:03:07 PM
I wonder what the 538 odds would be for who wins here.

95% of centre-right majority according to Gianmarco Di Lella model (based mostly on pre-ban opinion polls): https://politiche2022.netlify.app/

They probably will close to the 2/3 supermajority (267 seats), still probably will have more than 200 seats bc being able to win a lot of FPTP seats thanks to the division of the non-right/Draghi+M5S camp, but like in 2018, the M5S could surprise in the South (Naples, Sicily).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on September 22, 2022, 03:16:06 PM
I wonder what the 538 odds would be for who wins here.

With a 15 to 20-points lead? Probably around 95%. Maybe 90% if they account for the historical unreliability of Italian polls and the 2-weeks gap.

On that note though, a friend of mine is related to certain well-connected people who happen to have gotten their hands on an illegal poll. Mostly the numbers it shows aren't too different from those pre-09/10, but the main difference seems to be Lega losing and M5S gaining. So I guess that's the main place to look out for over- and underperformances this Sunday.
M5S around 15, Lega under 10, let's gooooo~


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 22, 2022, 06:17:07 PM
I wonder what the 538 odds would be for who wins here.

With a 15 to 20-points lead? Probably around 95%. Maybe 90% if they account for the historical unreliability of Italian polls and the 2-weeks gap.

On that note though, a friend of mine is related to certain well-connected people who happen to have gotten their hands on an illegal poll. Mostly the numbers it shows aren't too different from those pre-09/10, but the main difference seems to be Lega losing and M5S gaining. So I guess that's the main place to look out for over- and underperformances this Sunday.
M5S around 15, Lega under 10, let's gooooo~

They say some Swiss towns have even reached 17 constellations (85 stars I guess)...


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Mike88 on September 23, 2022, 06:17:22 AM
According to a "forbidden poll" conducted by BiDiMedia this week, no big changes compared with the last polls from two weeks ago:



Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 23, 2022, 03:21:13 PM
https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-election-candidate-warning-ursula-von-der-leyen/

"Von der Leyen’s warning message to Italy irks election candidates"

Quote
Italian politicians asked European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen not to intervene in domestic politics after she warned that Europe has “the tools” to deal with Italy if things go in a “difficult direction.”

Seems like a dumb move and will only shift votes toward the Right Wing bloc or M5S.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: crals on September 23, 2022, 06:43:14 PM
According to a "forbidden poll" conducted by BiDiMedia this week, no big changes compared with the last polls from two weeks ago:


What a collapse for Lega and FI. Meloni is carrying the right on her back.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Pres Mike on September 23, 2022, 09:42:35 PM
Any hope the far right won't return to power?Any hope at all?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 24, 2022, 03:16:08 AM
I have a prediction that when the returns come tomorrow night the party map will look very much like 2019 but with all the green turned into dark blue (and with the orange eating into the blue somewhat up North and the blue eating into the yellow somewhat down South). The coalition map will of course be a more generalized sea of blue...


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 24, 2022, 04:31:03 AM
Any hope the far right won't return to power?Any hope at all?

The Right coalition is near-certain of victory at this point. The only question is if they will get the 2/3 supermajority to do what they want without referendum.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 24, 2022, 09:41:22 AM
When do the polls close and exit polls come out tomorrow?  I recall back in 2018 it was actually midnight Rome time.  Is that still the case this time around?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Mike88 on September 24, 2022, 10:10:29 AM
When do the polls close and exit polls come out tomorrow?  I recall back in 2018 it was actually midnight Rome time.  Is that still the case this time around?

Polls close at 11PM, 10PM London time, and exit polls will start to be released at that same hour.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: MRCVzla on September 24, 2022, 10:42:16 AM
When do the polls close and exit polls come out tomorrow?  I recall back in 2018 it was actually midnight Rome time.  Is that still the case this time around?

To add Mike88' post with this tweet with the estimate time when we get the exit/instant polls/first projections, Sicily regional election' ballots are the last to be counted in that region so their first projections and results will be known on Monday evening/night.


Also election result site (Interior Ministry' Eligendo) is up: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: DavidB. on September 24, 2022, 10:48:27 AM
What is Azione/IV, what makes them different from the PD and why are they not part of the center-left alliance?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 24, 2022, 10:50:01 AM
What is Azione/IV, what makes them different from the PD and why are they not part of the center-left alliance?

I think they refused to be part of the PD alliance if the left-win AVS bloc is going to be part of the alliance so they are running separately. 


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 24, 2022, 11:08:30 AM
What is Azione/IV, what makes them different from the PD and why are they not part of the center-left alliance?

Renzi leads IV. I think that's all that needs to be known.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 24, 2022, 11:31:56 AM
What is Azione/IV, what makes them different from the PD and why are they not part of the center-left alliance?

Azione is Carlo Calenda's personality party and Italia Viva is Matteo Renzi's personality party - they are running in a single list to avoid the risk of falling below the threshold and because both believe centrist liberalism is an actual ideology (although my perception is that Calenda has more of a yuppie manager vibe and Renzi more of a well-off pensioner for unspecified reform vibe).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 24, 2022, 11:58:20 AM
What is Azione/IV, what makes them different from the PD and why are they not part of the center-left alliance?

Genepool DCs for rEfORm.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on September 24, 2022, 02:50:38 PM
The thing is that the center right coalition might get 2/3rd majority, in which they would be able to make changes to Italy's constitution.

Also, the right wing coalition will definitely win barring a major polling error. Throughout history, M5S has been underpolled often. The left wing Democratic Party might be biggest party, but it likely won't and it seems like FdI got a bigger advantage over them compared to 2 weeks ago. At the end coalitions will matter, and the left failed to get united against a anti-right bloc. Even M5S and Democratic Party aren't in a coalition.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Mike88 on September 25, 2022, 05:47:57 AM
Turnout updates: Turnout at 12pm seems to be stable in the North and Center, but low in the South.



Overall, turnout at 12pm across the country stood at 19.1%, just minus 0.4% compared with 2018.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Frodo on September 25, 2022, 11:59:20 AM
An excellent summary on the state of the Italian election campaign:

Italy poised for glass ceiling-shattering vote, hard right turn (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/italy-poised-for-glass-ceiling-shattering-vote-hard-right-turn/ar-AA12dhPS?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=5e228e5cb76f486dba4d0470f9f8dcff)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: rc18 on September 25, 2022, 12:24:09 PM
7pm turnout looks to be significantly down on 2018 everywhere, though particularly in the South where there is currently a storm. Presumably that'll hurt any M5S comeback.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: ηєω ƒяσηтιєя on September 25, 2022, 12:27:54 PM
Well, Little Miss Mussolini is going to win. Many European countries turn to the far-right isn't surprising.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on September 25, 2022, 12:37:51 PM
Well, Little Miss Mussolini is going to win. Many European countries turn to the far-right isn't surprising.

Hope the US can make Italy and those European nations into a colony of ours.


/s


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: rc18 on September 25, 2022, 01:40:44 PM
7pm turnout was 51.16%, down -7.24%.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: njwes on September 25, 2022, 01:47:00 PM
What's a good place to watch the results/tally?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Logical on September 25, 2022, 01:51:48 PM
Berlusconi under the threshold inshallah


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 01:51:49 PM
Turnout change from 2018 at 19 by region, color coded by North/Center/South.

Lazio -2.05
Lombardia -3.92
Sicilia -5.16
Toscana -5.8
Friuli-Venezia Giulia -6.21
Emilia-Romagna -6.22
Marche -6.47
Veneto -7
Nationwide -7.24
Liguria -7.6
Trentino Alto Adige -7.97
Piemonte -8.24
Umbria -8.7
Abruzzo -9.9
Valle d'Aosta -10.26
Puglia -11.08
Sardegna -11.51
Basilicata -11.86
Molise -12.42
Calabria -12.72
Campania -13.85

Obviously the worst drops are concentrated in the South, which is bad news for M5S but also probably largely priced in by polls already. Turnout holding on decently in the red regions might be good news for the left, but only to a limited extent. And Lazio having the lowest drop... well, Lazio is a weird region but in this particular case I can only think of one reason why it would be so much more motivated than the rest of the country.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 02:03:01 PM
Turnout change in the largest cities:

Roma -1.58
Milano -2.13
Napoli -10.71
Torino -7.72
Palermo -5.37
Genova -7.91


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 25, 2022, 02:06:15 PM
but in this particular case I can only think of one reason why it would be so much more motivated than the rest of the country.

Is this the bad reason that immediately popped into my head or something I'm missing - which is certainly quite possible.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 02:16:52 PM
but in this particular case I can only think of one reason why it would be so much more motivated than the rest of the country.

Is this the bad reason that immediately popped into my head or something I'm missing - which is certainly quite possible.

Well, perhaps it would be fairer to say that there are two interconnected reasons: Lazio's own, er, rich history of neofascist sympathies, and the fact that Meloni herself is from Rome.


What's a good place to watch the results/tally?

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI

Results theoretically start coming in at 23 local time, but more likely around midnight.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Walmart_shopper on September 25, 2022, 02:23:42 PM
Turnout change in the largest cities:

Roma -1.58
Milano -2.13
Napoli -10.71
Torino -7.72
Palermo -5.37
Genova -7.91

Pffft more like No Star.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 25, 2022, 02:26:10 PM
Why does Sicily have a relatively low drop, do we think?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: njwes on September 25, 2022, 02:27:20 PM
Why does Sicily have a relatively low drop, do we think?

I would assume it's because there's also a regional election going on there today


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2022, 02:37:20 PM
Any livestream and links to results?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Sestak on September 25, 2022, 02:38:47 PM
I’d forgotten how insane this voting system was…


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 02:40:11 PM
Why does Sicily have a relatively low drop, do we think?

I would assume it's because there's also a regional election going on there today

That is my best guess, yeah, but if so that would be a new thing in Italy. We haven't really had "reverse coattails" style turnout boosts like this before. It might also just be that the storm that swept through Italy throughout the day just happened to spare Sicily. I haven't seen the weather maps so I can't say for sure, but maybe Battista did.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 25, 2022, 02:45:17 PM
Well, perhaps it would be fairer to say that there are two interconnected reasons: Lazio's own, er, rich history of neofascist sympathies, and the fact that Meloni herself is from Rome.

As I feared then.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 25, 2022, 02:47:27 PM
As I had probably already announced I chose not to be a poll worker this time around. I also chose to vote late, which was kind of a mistake although the storm had already stopped here by the time I got out again. I voted AVS for the Chamber and PD for the Senate, if anyone is interested.

I am saddened by how turnout looks poised to drop again and particularly pissed off that a significant cause of that is... rain. Who knew old NoVA memes would come in handy in such a different scenario?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 25, 2022, 02:54:46 PM
Why does Sicily have a relatively low drop, do we think?

I would assume it's because there's also a regional election going on there today

That is my best guess, yeah, but if so that would be a new thing in Italy. We haven't really had "reverse coattails" style turnout boosts like this before. It might also just be that the storm that swept through Italy throughout the day just happened to spare Sicily. I haven't seen the weather maps so I can't say for sure, but maybe Battista did.

I have searched through some weather maps and it doesn't seem like Sicily was really spared (although the one clearest thing is that the most hit region is Campania). I would assume the regional election, which is probably more felt there than in most regions, is the main reason for the discrepancy.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Double Carpet on September 25, 2022, 03:05:12 PM
Links: (if anyone finds any more, esp. live results maps, please post - thanks)

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/votanti/20220925/votantiCI

https://www.raiplay.it/dirette/rainews24

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVB_Wx5T16g

https://www.la7.it/dirette-tv

https://www.corriere.it/

https://www.repubblica.it/


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 25, 2022, 03:21:17 PM
Links: (if anyone finds any more, esp. live results maps, please post - thanks)

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/votanti/20220925/votantiCI

https://www.raiplay.it/dirette/rainews24

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVB_Wx5T16g

https://www.la7.it/dirette-tv

https://www.corriere.it/

https://www.repubblica.it/

Corriere has a result map similar to last time that should be live updated - you just need to click past the paywalled pages to get to the results section: https://www.corriere.it/elezioni/risultati-politiche-2022/camera.shtml


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: DavidB. on September 25, 2022, 03:48:39 PM
So no real exit polls?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Double Carpet on September 25, 2022, 03:49:22 PM
Exit polls in 11 mins I believe.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 03:50:35 PM

La7 will give us something it calls a "trend poll", which sounds basically like an exit poll weighted with results from early polling statiions. No idea what that methodology is worth, so I'll take it with a grain of salt.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 03:59:23 PM
Here we go. May God help us all.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2022, 04:01:16 PM
*MELONI'S RIGHT BLOC AT 111-131 seats in senate: RAI Poll


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2022, 04:02:00 PM
*MELONI'S RIGHT BLOC AT 227-257 seats in lower house: RAI Poll


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Logical on September 25, 2022, 04:02:22 PM
M5S surge. No 2/3rd super majority for the right.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Clarko95 📚💰📈 on September 25, 2022, 04:03:09 PM
These are some big margins of errors tho

()

()


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2022, 04:03:17 PM
Rai poll has Right-wing bloc vote share at 43%.  SKYTG24 has it at 42%

This is a bit below pre-election polls. Not landslide but solid victory


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 25, 2022, 04:03:19 PM
LA7:

FdI: 25% (23 - 27)
PD: 20% (18 - 22)
M5S: 15.5% (13.5 - 17.5)
LEga: 11.5% (9.5 - 13.5)
Forza: 7% (6 - 8 )
A-IV: 7% (6 - 8 )
AVS: 3.5 (3 - 4)
E+: 2.5% (2 - 3)
Italexit: 2.5% (2 - 3)
No Moderati: 1.5% (1 - 2)

Right Block lead similar to pre-election polling at 43 to 47% vs 25 to 29%.



Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2022, 04:04:36 PM
Looks like MS5 again beat pre-election polls ... this time just a bit.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2022, 04:05:36 PM
SKYTG24 has right win bloc at 228 seats


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: windjammer on September 25, 2022, 04:07:28 PM
Does the rightwing block need Berlusconi's votes for a majority?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2022, 04:07:28 PM
SkyTg24 poll

Right wing bloc 42.6%  in Senate for 115 seats

Right wing bloc at 42% in Lower house for 228 seats

Brothers of Italy at 23.5%
Democratic Party at 20.3%
Five Star Movement at 16.4%
League at 9.6%
Forza Italia 7.8%
Centrist bloc 7.2%


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Logical on September 25, 2022, 04:08:40 PM
Sky/YouTrend exit poll
Senate:
()
House:
()


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 04:09:15 PM
This seems more or less in line with the last few polls. Bad, very bad, but not outright catastrophic.

Now let's wait for the actual results, because historically exit polls in Italy got it wrong plenty of times.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 25, 2022, 04:12:04 PM
Does the rightwing block need Berlusconi's votes for a majority?

Right now the Right would need "the big three" of FdI, Lega, and Forza but could dump the micro-party handers on if desired. But:

This seems more or less in line with the last few polls. Bad, very bad, but not outright catastrophic.

Now let's wait for the actual results, because historically exit polls in Italy got it wrong plenty of times.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Logical on September 25, 2022, 04:14:25 PM
Tecne exit poll. Pretty similar.
Senate:
()
House:
()


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 25, 2022, 04:16:28 PM
This seems more or less in line with the last few polls. Bad, very bad, but not outright catastrophic.

Now let's wait for the actual results, because historically exit polls in Italy got it wrong plenty of times.

Yeah I would just ignore our often unreliable exit polls. We already knew that the result is bad but not disastrous and that M5S had yet another mid campaign surge.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2022, 04:19:18 PM
Looks like it was Lega that underperformed pre-election polls in exit polls


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 25, 2022, 04:28:16 PM
Well ouch. With Sweden it seems that Europe is shifting right.

Both Italy and Sweden had migrant controversies, could this be more backlash?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: DavidB. on September 25, 2022, 04:29:29 PM
Well ouch. With Sweden it seems that Europe is shifting right.
Doesn't work like that.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on September 25, 2022, 04:29:42 PM
Exit Polls - Opinion Polls



Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 04:30:43 PM
Well ouch. With Sweden it seems that Europe is shifting right.

Both Italy and Sweden had migrant controversies, could this be more backlash?

Immigration was a bigger issue in 2018 than this year (in Italy definitely, and I think in Sweden too)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 25, 2022, 04:31:41 PM


Sicily


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 25, 2022, 04:32:03 PM
Neo-fascists win the honor of presiding over a possibly catastrophic economic crisis. As someone who enjoys drinking out of poisoned chalices, I am very envious!  


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Ferguson97 on September 25, 2022, 04:36:26 PM
RIP Italy, you had a good run


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 25, 2022, 04:36:27 PM
Neo-fascists win the honor of presiding over a possibly catastrophic economic crisis. As someone who enjoys drinking out of poisoned chalices, I am very envious!  

I mean Berlusconi, PD, and M5S all had their time at the helm and were unable to right the countries many economic wrongs during the last/ongoing economic crises. Whether correct or incorrect, there is a segment of voters who see 'we've tried everyone else.'


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 25, 2022, 04:37:16 PM
Fascismo leading with 83 votes in.

Are these 2 precincts Italian Dixville Notch or something?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2022, 04:37:23 PM
SkyTg24 is now increasing its vote share for the right win bloc to be in line with other exit polls. Herding ?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 25, 2022, 04:40:37 PM
5/60,399

RIGHT: 165 (61.34%)
LEFT: 41 (15.24%)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 04:40:50 PM
Neo-fascists win the honor of presiding over a possibly catastrophic economic crisis. As someone who enjoys drinking out of poisoned chalices, I am very envious! 

That's nothing to celebrate. Fascists are masters in exploiting crises to consolidate power.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Senator Incitatus on September 25, 2022, 04:42:41 PM
Neo-fascists win the honor of presiding over a possibly catastrophic economic crisis. As someone who enjoys drinking out of poisoned chalices, I am very envious! 

One must consider how fortunate Mohamed Atta was to avoid the wave of Islamophobia in fall of 2001.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Aurelius on September 25, 2022, 04:45:34 PM
Sky/YouTrend exit poll
Senate:
()
House:
()
What is Estero?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 04:45:35 PM
La7 guy now saying Lega is trending further down from its original estimate.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 25, 2022, 04:46:12 PM
Neo-fascists win the honor of presiding over a possibly catastrophic economic crisis. As someone who enjoys drinking out of poisoned chalices, I am very envious!  

I would never assume anything will be a poisoned chalice in Italy, or more precisely I would never assume the main opposition at any given time will stand to really gain from the poisoned chalice (this may just be due to our technocratic government mania folding over the differences, but it's still there).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 25, 2022, 04:46:46 PM

Others. Almost certainly the German regionalist party in Trentino/Sudtirol.

Edit: I thought you were referring to Altri.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2022, 04:47:02 PM

I think abroad


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 25, 2022, 04:47:16 PM

Estero means "Abroad", which is a separate constituency.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 04:47:38 PM

Others. Almost certainly the German regionalist party in Trentino/Sudtirol.

No, estero means "abroad". They're probably referring to parties like MAIE and USEI.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 25, 2022, 04:48:11 PM
SENATE:

18/60,399

RIGHT: 633 (58.13%)
LEFT: 252 (23.14%)

HOUSE:

1/61,417

LEFT: 26 (52.00%)
RIGHT: 12 (24.00%)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Aurelius on September 25, 2022, 04:49:39 PM

Gotcha. In Spanish it means estuary or lagoon. False friends failed me.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 25, 2022, 04:49:47 PM

Interesting the first precinct (poll? circumscription? commune?) on the official site is a PD lead one from Reggio Emilia.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: njwes on September 25, 2022, 04:53:31 PM
Italians--congratulations on your first female and weeb PM.

While I understand the neo-fascist (and just fascist) origins of the FdI, I've heard multiple takes among Anglo media that Meloni herself is more in the Thatcher mode than the Le Pen mode. Any truth to that?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 25, 2022, 04:54:37 PM
SENATE:

34/60,399

RIGHT: 2,109 (58.12%)
LEFT: 836 (23.04%)

HOUSE:

3/61,417

RIGHT: 103 (56.28%)
LEFT: 41 (22.40%)


Interesting the first precinct (poll? circumscription? commune?) on the official site is a PD lead one from Reggio Emilia.

Sezioni, which is plural of 'divided/fraction' methinks.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: NYDem on September 25, 2022, 04:55:19 PM

STOP THE COUNT!!


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 04:56:10 PM
Sezioni are precincts. Small municipalities have just one precinct each, while the bigger ones like Rome and Milan have many.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Lord Halifax on September 25, 2022, 05:00:11 PM
Neo-fascists win the honor of presiding over a possibly catastrophic economic crisis. As someone who enjoys drinking out of poisoned chalices, I am very envious! 

That's nothing to celebrate. Fascists are masters in exploiting crises to consolidate power.

Does Italy have any emergency powers clause Meloni could invoke?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 25, 2022, 05:00:45 PM
SENATE:

73/60,399

RIGHT: 4,941 (54.06%)
LEFT: 2,152 (23.55%)

HOUSE:

6/61,417

RIGHT: 231 (51.33%)
LEFT: 106 (23.56%)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on September 25, 2022, 05:01:42 PM
Is Meloni anti Russia


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on September 25, 2022, 05:04:46 PM
La7 projections based on first counting

Coalition
Right 43.3%
PD and allies 25.4%
M5S 17
Calenda/Renzi 7.9

FdI 26
Lega 8.4
Forza Italia 7.0
Noi moderati 1

PD 18.1
Green Left 3.6
+Europe 3.1
Di Maio 0.6

M5S 167

Renzi-Calenda 7.9


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 25, 2022, 05:05:01 PM
1st senate projection from SWG:

Conservative Alliance: 43.3%
Center-Left Alliance: 25.4%
M5S: 17%
A-IV: 7.9%


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2022, 05:05:43 PM

Yes.  I think Russia policy is an area she will be different from her allies.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 25, 2022, 05:05:51 PM

Much more than Salvini and Berlusconi. Arguably a feature of leading a 'young' party that had few former politicians, so policy planks could be easily shifted. Comparatively, Salvini pre-Invasion was openly Pro-Russian system (the image of him in a Putin shirt is a classic one) and Berlusconi has a history with Putin from his days as PM, a history that may have prompted the recent comments on "the leadership in Kyiv."


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 25, 2022, 05:06:36 PM
SENATE:

149/60,399

RIGHT: 31,111 (51.01%)
LEFT: 6,023 (23.43%)

HOUSE:

6/61,417

RIGHT: 231 (51.33%)
LEFT: 106 (23.56%)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 05:08:23 PM
Absolutely terrible results for both Lega and PD. Absolutely wild for M5S given the circumstances.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on September 25, 2022, 05:08:30 PM

So would you say out of the 3 , she is the lesser evil .


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 25, 2022, 05:10:45 PM
I'll be blunt: flyingmongoose making a new post with the updated count every minute, which is bound to only differ from the previous one by a hair, is very annoying and useless and he is therefore asked to stop. Thank you.

Also, the literal meaning of "sezioni" is just "sections". Etymology is cool like that.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 25, 2022, 05:10:53 PM

Maybe on this current issue. Certainly not on a number of other ones. It certainly prompted a number of pre-election articles I saw on how the EU should support Meloni corral her allies.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2022, 05:11:42 PM
Absolutely terrible results for both Lega and PD. Absolutely wild for M5S given the circumstances.

It seems the voters are out to get anyone that is more aligned with the Mario Draghi government.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Senator Incitatus on September 25, 2022, 05:12:24 PM
I'll be blunt: flyingmongoose making a new post with the updated count every minute, which is bound to only differ from the previous one by a hair, is very annoying and useless and he is therefore asked to stop. Thank you.

Use the ignore function. Am pleased to have avoided this entirely by already having this user ignored.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 05:12:31 PM
Neo-fascists win the honor of presiding over a possibly catastrophic economic crisis. As someone who enjoys drinking out of poisoned chalices, I am very envious! 

That's nothing to celebrate. Fascists are masters in exploiting crises to consolidate power.

Does Italy have any emergency powers clause Meloni could invoke?

Thankfully no. We'll have to see if they'll be able to unilaterally change the constitution, but if these results hold they will not.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2022, 05:13:40 PM
A-IV is running as one party?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on September 25, 2022, 05:13:55 PM
Absolutely terrible results for both Lega and PD. Absolutely wild for M5S given the circumstances.

It seems the voters are out to get anyone that is more aligned with the Mario Draghi government.
That doesn't appear to be unreasonable of a take.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Logical on September 25, 2022, 05:15:53 PM
+E on the cusp of the threshold.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on September 25, 2022, 05:16:06 PM
La7 projections based on first counting

Coalition
Right 43.3%
PD and allies 25.4%
M5S 17
Calenda/Renzi 7.9

FdI 26
Lega 8.4
Forza Italia 7.0
Noi moderati 1

PD 18.1
Green Left 3.6
+Europe 3.1
Di Maio 0.6

M5S 167

Renzi-Calenda 7.9


Projections on Rai TV

FdI 24.6
Lega 8.5
Forza Italia 8.0
Noi moderati 1.1


PD 19.4
Green Left 3.5
+Europe 2.9

M5S 16.5

Renzi-Calenda 7.3


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 25, 2022, 05:16:11 PM

A is Azione or Action

IV is Italia Viva or Italy Alive.

So it is an alliance, but it is separate of the bigger blocks if that is what you mean.

Now why is this Liberal/Left ticket running separate of the center-left ticket? A-IV is partially Renzi's invention, partially Calenda's.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: MaxQue on September 25, 2022, 05:17:32 PM

A is Azione or Action

IV is Italia Viva or Italy Alive.

So it is an alliance, but it is separate of the bigger blocks if that is what you mean.

Now why is this Liberal/Left ticket running separate of the center-left ticket? A-IV is partially Renzi's invention, partially Calenda's.

They did not want to be on the same list as the Greens/Left, as those are too far from center.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2022, 05:17:56 PM

A is Azione or Action

IV is Italia Viva or Italy Alive.

So it is an alliance, but it is separate of the bigger blocks if that is what you mean.

Now why is this Liberal/Left ticket running separate of the center-left ticket? A-IV is partially Renzi's invention, partially Calenda's.

The government election site

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/senato/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniSI

The results are broken out for the Right-wing and center-Left blocs.  But for A-IV it does not break them out so I assumed they ran as one party.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 25, 2022, 05:20:46 PM
Neo-fascists win the honor of presiding over a possibly catastrophic economic crisis. As someone who enjoys drinking out of poisoned chalices, I am very envious!  

That's nothing to celebrate. Fascists are masters in exploiting crises to consolidate power.

Maybe I do not fully understand post-fascism in Italy but the other right-wing populists Italy has had experience with were bumbling fools. If you had to select the ideal time for these people to be in power, it would be now, so I think it's worth taking some heart in that instead of crapping one's drawers and living in fear. Overall, I am tired of impotence on the left, where every election result is an existential crisis.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 25, 2022, 05:21:00 PM
Yeah yeah, I know everyone hates me. But I thought I'd post another update since Facismo is under 50% and we have 500 sezionis declared.

SENATE:

503/60,399

RIGHT: 55,384 (48.44%)
LEFT: 30,644 (26.80%)

HOUSE:

26/61,417

RIGHT: 994 (48.42%)
LEFT: 489 (23.82%)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on September 25, 2022, 05:24:43 PM

Updated La7 projection

Coalition
Right 43.8%
PD and allies 25.8%
M5S 16.6
Calenda/Renzi 7.8

FdI 26
Lega 8.7
Forza Italia 8.2
Noi moderati 0.9

PD 18.3
Green Left 3.7
+Europe 3.1
Di Maio 0.8


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Logical on September 25, 2022, 05:26:53 PM
RAI Senate projection
()


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: DavidB. on September 25, 2022, 05:27:27 PM
I expected Lega to tank and am not that surprised about PD underperforming either, but M5S' result is the surprise of the night. No idea what their appeal still is, after 100,000 U turns, but I reckon they did well in Southern Italy with voters who oppose basically everybody and everything but aren't sold on FdI either, which I guess was always a possibility.

A Lega underperformance (single digits) would probably strengthen FdI's position within the coalition, also symbolically.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2022, 05:30:04 PM
I expected Lega to tank and am not that surprised about PD underperforming either, but M5S' result is the surprise of the night. No idea what their appeal still is, after 100,000 U turns, but I reckon they did well in Southern Italy with voters who oppose basically everybody and everything but aren't sold on FdI either, which I guess was always a possibility.

I did think ahead of time it was a distinct possibility.
Will be interesting to see if M5S outperforms pre-election polls for the third general election in a row.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: DavidB. on September 25, 2022, 05:31:06 PM
Congrats 👍🏻


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2022, 05:33:22 PM
I wonder if the large gap between FdI and Lega could create tensions leading Lega to become a disruptive force in the new right-wing government in order to claw back its old support base.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2022, 05:34:37 PM
The count so far has a Northern bias.  If so then Lega is doomed to be below 10% and PD is doomed to be below 20%.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 25, 2022, 05:42:03 PM
500,000 votes counted

SENATE:

1,730/60,399

RIGHT: 243,965 (47.59%)
LEFT: 138,372 (26.99%)
M5S: 60,371 (11.78%)

HOUSE:

173/61,417

RIGHT: 11,647 (47.47%)
LEFT: 6,290 (25.64%)
M5S: 2,858 (11.65%)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 25, 2022, 05:42:25 PM
The count so far has a Northern bias.  If so then Lega is doomed to be below 10% and PD is doomed to be below 20%.

PD are currently losing all but the Florence Senate seat in Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna. The Senate is the faster count. So either the cities with more votes and more PD votes are going slow (likely given nothing from Rome and Milan so far), PD will perform worse than expected, or a bit of both.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 05:50:13 PM
La7 projects 105-125 seats for the right in the Senate. That's a pretty wide range so it's really not much of a prediction.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on September 25, 2022, 05:50:34 PM
New projection by RAI. Things are pretty stable



https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1574167580545359873?s=20&t=KQPgxgU5H3IWLedPybER0w


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 25, 2022, 05:52:33 PM
1,000,000 votes counted

SENATE:

3,215/60,399

RIGHT: 478,967 (45.51%)
LEFT: 299,562 (28.46%)
M5S: 126,257 (12.00%)

HOUSE:

282/61,417

RIGHT: 22,454 (46.96%)
LEFT: 12,276 (25.67%)
M5S: 5,701 (11.92%)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Logical on September 25, 2022, 05:55:27 PM
The count so far has a Northern bias.  If so then Lega is doomed to be below 10% and PD is doomed to be below 20%.

PD are currently losing all but the Florence Senate seat in Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna. The Senate is the faster count. So either the cities with more votes and more PD votes are going slow (likely given nothing from Rome and Milan so far), PD will perform worse than expected, or a bit of both.

Looks like PD will win the seat in Turin as well.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2022, 05:56:44 PM
It seems M5S is like Antaeus. It must always touch the Mother Earth of being in opposition to having strength or else its support falls apart by being in the ruling bloc.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 25, 2022, 05:58:05 PM
but M5S' result is the surprise of the night. No idea what their appeal still is, after 100,000 U turns...

Basically they're an accidental parody of an ineffectual labour party these days, which turns out to be (it appears) the one viable route to survival. Of course it's rather damning of the PD that this happens to be the case, but, well, what to say.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on September 25, 2022, 05:59:03 PM
The Florence Senate candidate is not even PD, it was "landed" to Green/Left.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 25, 2022, 06:11:34 PM
2,000,000 votes counted

SENATE:

5,719/60,399

RIGHT: 925,793 (45.49%)
LEFT: 571,395 (28.07%)
M5S: 252,963 (12.43%)

HOUSE:

898/61,417

RIGHT: 93,398 (43.94%)
LEFT: 58,738 (27.64%)
M5S: 29,499 (13.88%)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 25, 2022, 06:26:17 PM
3rd Senate Projection:

Blacks:

Right: 44%
Left: 26%
M5S: 16%
A-IV: 7.7%


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 25, 2022, 06:39:42 PM
This will sound like cope but I do think it's significant that PD isn't collapsing further despite all the stupid "liberals" packing for A-IV. Of course, this could have been much better and Letta proving that he doesn't know how to campaign is damning (while that's kind of endearing to me, by definition it doesn't appeal to common people).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 25, 2022, 06:45:26 PM
5,000,000 votes counted

SENATE:

13,031/60,399

RIGHT: 2,235,801 (44.44%)
LEFT: 1,376,179 (27.36%)
M5S: 723,834 (14.39%)

HOUSE:

3,349/61,417

RIGHT: 436,339 (42.55%)
LEFT: 280,099 (27.32%)
M5S: 158,731 (15.48%)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on September 25, 2022, 06:48:21 PM
5,000,000 votes counted

SENATE:

13,031/60,399

RIGHT: 2,235,801 (44.44%)
LEFT: 1,376,179 (27.36%)
M5S: 723,834 (14.39%)

HOUSE:

3,349/61,417

RIGHT: 436,339 (42.55%)
LEFT: 280,099 (27.32%)
M5S: 158,731 (15.48%)
Is it just me or is the Right slowly declining in vote share?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 25, 2022, 06:50:38 PM
5,000,000 votes counted

SENATE:

13,031/60,399

RIGHT: 2,235,801 (44.44%)
LEFT: 1,376,179 (27.36%)
M5S: 723,834 (14.39%)

HOUSE:

3,349/61,417

RIGHT: 436,339 (42.55%)
LEFT: 280,099 (27.32%)
M5S: 158,731 (15.48%)
Is it just me or is the Right slowly declining in vote share?

PD Senate candidate now leading in Emilia-Romagna 3 which covers Bologna and a bit else. They have also gained ground in neighboring seats so yeah, the cities (and the south) are coming in slower.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: MRCVzla on September 25, 2022, 06:51:52 PM
Quorum/YouTrend for SkyTG24 officially projects what M5S minister Sergio Costa wins the Napoli-Fuorigrotta Camera district, this and Impegno Civico projected to be below 1% means what former M5S leader and minister Luigi Di Maio is not reelected and will be OUT OF PARLIAMENT


Meanwhile at Senate early count, Sgarbi is leading the Bologna district against Casini (almost 40yr in parliament at risk) but remains to count a lot of precincts from Bologna city proper. As well, Cateno De Luca' high result projected at Sicily regional election may could help his "South Calls North" list to also win some Camera/Senate districts (at the moment to redact this, its leading the Messina Senate district)

Surprise to me is +Europa around to surpass the 3% threshold to obtain PR seats. Also the "unexpected" race between Lega and FI at 8-9%


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on September 25, 2022, 06:55:03 PM
5,000,000 votes counted

SENATE:

13,031/60,399

RIGHT: 2,235,801 (44.44%)
LEFT: 1,376,179 (27.36%)
M5S: 723,834 (14.39%)

HOUSE:

3,349/61,417

RIGHT: 436,339 (42.55%)
LEFT: 280,099 (27.32%)
M5S: 158,731 (15.48%)
Is it just me or is the Right slowly declining in vote share?

PD Senate candidate now leading in Emilia-Romagna 3 which covers Bologna and a bit else. They have also gained ground in neighboring seats so yeah, the cities (and the south) are coming in slower.
Good news for the left then. A right-wing government might not even be necessarily inevitable?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 25, 2022, 06:55:40 PM
5,000,000 votes counted

SENATE:

13,031/60,399

RIGHT: 2,235,801 (44.44%)
LEFT: 1,376,179 (27.36%)
M5S: 723,834 (14.39%)

HOUSE:

3,349/61,417

RIGHT: 436,339 (42.55%)
LEFT: 280,099 (27.32%)
M5S: 158,731 (15.48%)
Is it just me or is the Right slowly declining in vote share?

PD Senate candidate now leading in Emilia-Romagna 3 which covers Bologna and a bit else. They have also gained ground in neighboring seats so yeah, the cities (and the south) are coming in slower.
Good news for the left then. A right-wing government might not even be necessarily inevitable?

Probably a bit too late at this point.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 25, 2022, 06:58:12 PM
5,000,000 votes counted

SENATE:

13,031/60,399

RIGHT: 2,235,801 (44.44%)
LEFT: 1,376,179 (27.36%)
M5S: 723,834 (14.39%)

HOUSE:

3,349/61,417

RIGHT: 436,339 (42.55%)
LEFT: 280,099 (27.32%)
M5S: 158,731 (15.48%)
Is it just me or is the Right slowly declining in vote share?

PD Senate candidate now leading in Emilia-Romagna 3 which covers Bologna and a bit else. They have also gained ground in neighboring seats so yeah, the cities (and the south) are coming in slower.
Good news for the left then. A right-wing government might not even be necessarily inevitable?

Probably a bit too late at this point.

Yeah this is about saving the furniture - or in this case the stronghold seats - from a 17% percent loss.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on September 25, 2022, 07:08:48 PM
Bologna city results coming in and Casini is now leading 40 to 31%.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 07:20:33 PM
So in the Senate, the Right is almost certain to win at least 54 seats out of 74. M5S is well placed to get 5, and the left (including SVP lol) another 5. Another 10 are still floating around, though in most of them the right is behind.

On the PR side, the right should probably win 55-60 seats. So probably 110 to 120 is where the Senate will end up when all is said and done.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on September 25, 2022, 07:32:49 PM
How are the results ending up comparing to the exits


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 25, 2022, 07:35:41 PM
Meloni speaking.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 07:36:06 PM
Final La7 has the Right at 44.1 and the Left at 26.4 for the Senate.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 25, 2022, 07:39:57 PM
I am going to sleep now... my last considerations are that overall this result in addition to bad is pretty pathetic, but we do have silver linings like the left-of-PD party perhaps not underperforming for the first time in forever or the comic relief of Cateno De Luca's list in Sicily (I did not even know it was running in the national election until today) seemingly posting some hilariously strong results.

On a related note, the Sicily regional election ballots will be counted tomorrow, but the results are already well-known (Schifani will win, De Luca will do surprisingly well, Chinnici and Di Paola will have eaten into each other and caused a humiliation for the broad left).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Logical on September 25, 2022, 07:44:44 PM
Exit poll by age
Senate. Appears that the logos for Lega and M5S were switched.
()
House
()


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 08:01:04 PM
About 50% of precincts have reported for the Senate. Here's the breakdown by region:

Liguria 82%
TAA 78%
Umbria 77%
FVG 74%
Emilia-Romagna 72%
VdA 69%
Marche 67%
Toscana 67%
Puglia 62%
Veneto 60%
Piemonte 60%
Molise 57%
NATIONWIDE 52%
Campania 49%
Abruzzo 49%
Lazio 49%
Basilicata 43%
Calabria 39%
Sardegna 37%
Lombardia 36%
Sicilia 19%

So there's a lot left, mainly from the South but also from Lazio and Lombardy. The Red Regions once again have shot their load early, so we can probably expect the right to gain a bit, but especially M5S to grow.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 08:06:41 PM
So in the Senate, the Right is almost certain to win at least 54 seats out of 74. M5S is well placed to get 5, and the left (including SVP lol) another 5. Another 10 are still floating around, though in most of them the right is behind.

On the PR side, the right should probably win 55-60 seats. So probably 110 to 120 is where the Senate will end up when all is said and done.

La7 says between 114 and 122. Close enough, I guess. We'll see where it ends up exactly. The right looks actually set to sweep all the Rome seats, so that would shift a couple seats around.



Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 08:20:00 PM
So with the current leads the right is on track to win 58 of the 74 Senate seats (they've pulled ahead in VdA too). We'll see how many PR seats they win in the end (if they keep inching up they could get to 59 or 60) but either way I don't think 122 is likely. Either way still a great result, of course.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 25, 2022, 08:33:42 PM
Is it certain that Meloni will be the next PM? Wasn't Draghi and independent?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 25, 2022, 08:38:51 PM

All but.

Quote
Wasn't Draghi and independent?

Yes, but look at the party standings in the outgoing Parliament.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 08:53:54 PM
The reporting is starting to slow to a trickle, but we're at about 2/3 for the Senate.

VdA 100%
Liguria 91%
FVG 90%
Umbria 87%
TAA 86%
Toscana 84%
ER 84%
Marche 83%
Puglia 79%
Veneto 76%
Molise 71%
Piemonte 75%
Campania 67%
Abruzzo 65%
Basilicata 64%
Lazio 64%
Calabria 58%
Lombardia 54%
Sardegna 52%
Sicilia 34%

Lombardy and Sicily are the two big shoes still to drop. Both should heavily favor the right, though Sicily results are really bizarre. Also lots of votes left in Lazio, and especially in its most heavily right-wing parts.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 08:55:01 PM
Also La7 has its final projection for the House at 230 to 244. Again quite a margin.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: ηєω ƒяσηтιєя on September 25, 2022, 08:57:37 PM
Of course, I see nothing but American right wing lunatics on Twitter celebrating Meloni. SMH.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 09:21:11 PM
The right pulled ahead in the Messina seat where the De Luca independent was ahead for a while. They also look poised to eventually overtake M5S in the Foggia one. That could actually put them at 61 FPP seats. Given how they're doing percentage-wise, that actually pretty much guarantees 120 seats right there.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Beet on September 25, 2022, 09:22:02 PM
Awful result.

It's a sign of the right-wing times we live in though.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Logical on September 25, 2022, 09:38:33 PM
Percentage wise the right coalition did not gain that much. CSX+M5S+AZ-IV stands at ~48%, comfortably above CDX at ~43%. What gave the right the majority was the left's failure to coalesce, the massive egos of their leaders and a war crime of an electoral system. The hot takes should be about how the the left deserved to lose not how the right won.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 09:39:14 PM
The right pulled ahead in the Messina seat where the De Luca independent was ahead for a while. They also look poised to eventually overtake M5S in the Foggia one. That could actually put them at 61 FPP seats. Given how they're doing percentage-wise, that actually pretty much guarantees 120 seats right there.

Well, they have pulled ahead in the Foggia seat, but the random indy is back in the lead in Messina. Who the hell knows what ends up happening there.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2022, 10:50:30 PM
For the House, it looks like the right is also ahead in 120 FPP seats. They're gonna get at least 116 PR seats, and maybe as many as 118. So the upper bound is probably 240 there as well.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 26, 2022, 03:26:33 AM
The Right won the Livorno constituency, I note. Which roughly translates as 'Con gain Rhondda', even if, sure, this is a little harder than 'Con' - but then the traditions there were a little harder than 'Lab' as well, so.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 26, 2022, 04:46:18 AM
I feel so sorry for Italy. A Broad Front including PD+M5S+Azione could have prevented this... I hope Berlusconi and FI helps moderate things a bit. I never thought I would say this.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 26, 2022, 05:08:44 AM
Worth remembering that the old National Alliance (the successor to the MSI and the forerunner to the FdI) polled double digits at every General Election during its existence and peaked at 16% in 1996. This is obviously beyond that, but I don't think the idea that the political Right in the future might be dominated by a party from the old fascist tradition would have struck anyone back then as outlandish. This is very much a re-emergence (and how) not a new phenomenon.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Helsinkian on September 26, 2022, 05:14:43 AM
Out of curiosity, did anyone at the time associate The People of Freedom with fascism because of the inclusion of the National Alliance in it?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2022, 05:37:10 AM
Letta is leaving the PD leadership.


Quote
"Unsatisfactory result. In the next few days we will bring together the party organs to speed up the path that will lead to a congress. I will not re-run as a candidate. This legislature will be the most right-wing"


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2022, 05:43:46 AM
Emma Bonino has lost her seat in Rome. Di Maio also has lost his seat.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2022, 05:51:35 AM
FPTP results map:



Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 26, 2022, 06:05:59 AM
It seems M5S will beat out Center-Left bloc in terms of FPTP seats which is reflective of the more concentrated nature of the MS5 vote. 


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2022, 06:17:51 AM
It seems M5S will beat out Center-Left bloc in terms of FPTP seats which is reflective of the more concentrated nature of the MS5 vote. 
In the House or Senate?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 26, 2022, 06:27:16 AM
The Right won the Livorno constituency, I note. Which roughly translates as 'Con gain Rhondda', even if, sure, this is a little harder than 'Con' - but then the traditions there were a little harder than 'Lab' as well, so.

Well, this is like "Con gain Rhondda" if the Rhondda constituency included a big chunk of Carmarthenshire and Brecon and Radnor because someone decided that shrinking the Commons to a couple hundred MPs was just what the country needs...


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 26, 2022, 06:35:44 AM
It seems M5S will beat out Center-Left bloc in terms of FPTP seats which is reflective of the more concentrated nature of the MS5 vote. 
In the House or Senate?

It seems almost certain in the Senate and most likely House too


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 26, 2022, 07:17:13 AM
Letta is leaving the PD leadership.


Quote
"Unsatisfactory result. In the next few days we will bring together the party organs to speed up the path that will lead to a congress. I will not re-run as a candidate. This legislature will be the most right-wing"

Good f**king riddance. Not that I have much hope that his successor will be an improvement...


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 26, 2022, 07:18:50 AM
It seems M5S will beat out Center-Left bloc in terms of FPTP seats which is reflective of the more concentrated nature of the MS5 vote. 
In the House or Senate?

It seems almost certain in the Senate and most likely House too

No, this is false. The FPTP count in the Chamber of Deputies is 12 for the Centre-Left and 10 for the M5S, and even that in the Senate is 6 for the Centre-Left and 5 for the M5S thanks to Trentino-Südtirol electing all Senators from the majoritarian part for some weird reason.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 26, 2022, 07:23:33 AM
It seems M5S will beat out Center-Left bloc in terms of FPTP seats which is reflective of the more concentrated nature of the MS5 vote. 
In the House or Senate?

It seems almost certain in the Senate and most likely House too

No, this is false. The FPTP count in the Chamber of Deputies is 12 for the Centre-Left and 10 for the M5S, and even that in the Senate is 6 for the Centre-Left and 5 for the M5S thanks to Trentino-Südtirol electing all Senators from the majoritarian part for some weird reason.

Ah .. you are right about Trentino-Südtirol.  I did not take that in to account.  For the Senate I just figure M5S will have some more senators to come when Sicily comes in.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 26, 2022, 07:27:21 AM
Letta is leaving the PD leadership.

https://twitter.com/Radio1Rai/status/1574347116767576070
Quote
"Unsatisfactory result. In the next few days we will bring together the party organs to speed up the path that will lead to a congress. I will not re-run as a candidate. This legislature will be the most right-wing"

Good f**king riddance. Not that I have much hope that his successor will be an improvement...

Something, something, the future we (defined as weak elusive weirdos) could have had... they could always bring back Zingaretti, who will be without a job in a few months anyway, but perhaps that's giving the average PD apparatchik too much credit.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 26, 2022, 07:29:42 AM
It seems M5S will beat out Center-Left bloc in terms of FPTP seats which is reflective of the more concentrated nature of the MS5 vote. 
In the House or Senate?

It seems almost certain in the Senate and most likely House too

No, this is false. The FPTP count in the Chamber of Deputies is 12 for the Centre-Left and 10 for the M5S, and even that in the Senate is 6 for the Centre-Left and 5 for the M5S thanks to Trentino-Südtirol electing all Senators from the majoritarian part for some weird reason.

Ah .. you are right about Trentino-Südtirol.  I did not take that in to account.  For the Senate I just figure M5S will have some more senators to come when Sicily comes in.

Sicily is pretty much almost entirely in, the few sections remaining won't change the current leaders (which are CDX in 4 seats, M5S in 1 seat and De Luca in 1 seat).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 26, 2022, 07:31:47 AM
Anyway, it looks like the dust has settled on 59 FPP seats for the right in the Senate, and 121 in the House. It looks like they were a lot luckier with marginal seats in the House for some reason.

PR-wise, they look set to get 57 in the Senate (off-chance of 58) and 115 in the House, along with 2 expat seats. So this all adds up to 116 seats in the Senate (58%) and 238 in the House (59.5%). The largest majorities for the right in the whole Republican history, if I'm remembering right. Although thankfully still a far cry from the most pessimistic predictions.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 26, 2022, 07:48:25 AM
Anyway, it looks like the dust has settled on 59 FPP seats for the right in the Senate, and 121 in the House. It looks like they were a lot luckier with marginal seats in the House for some reason.

PR-wise, they look set to get 57 in the Senate (off-chance of 58) and 115 in the House, along with 2 expat seats. So this all adds up to 116 seats in the Senate (58%) and 238 in the House (59.5%). The largest majorities for the right in the whole Republican history, if I'm remembering right. Although thankfully still a far cry from the most pessimistic predictions.

I don't think the right was luckier with marginals in the Chamber (after all the difference between 121 and 59×2 is just 3), I believe the difference is largely due to the weird system that made Trentino-Südtirol have more FPTP seats in the Senate.

58-59% for the right would be surprisingly low relative to expectations (even mine and I never bought into the idea that they might reach two thirds - I was expecting a little above 60%) and it is actually pretty much the same share of seats they got in 1994 and 2001 if a smidgen higher. Everything must change for everything to remain the same...


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 26, 2022, 08:55:12 AM
Anyway, it looks like the dust has settled on 59 FPP seats for the right in the Senate, and 121 in the House. It looks like they were a lot luckier with marginal seats in the House for some reason.

PR-wise, they look set to get 57 in the Senate (off-chance of 58) and 115 in the House, along with 2 expat seats. So this all adds up to 116 seats in the Senate (58%) and 238 in the House (59.5%). The largest majorities for the right in the whole Republican history, if I'm remembering right. Although thankfully still a far cry from the most pessimistic predictions.

I don't think the right was luckier with marginals in the Chamber (after all the difference between 121 and 59×2 is just 3), I believe the difference is largely due to the weird system that made Trentino-Südtirol have more FPTP seats in the Senate.

I haven't done a systematic breakdown (I'll try to get to it soon!), but anecdotally while browsing through the House results I saw a lot of right-wing wins by less than 2 points. By contrast there were only 2 such wins in the Senate (one in Trentino hilariously, and another in Foggia against M5S).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Lord Halifax on September 26, 2022, 09:23:10 AM
I was wondering is Forza Italia likely to disintegrate when Berlusconi dies? and if so, who is most likely to get their vote?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 26, 2022, 10:25:44 AM
()

This map is normalized to the parties vote overall, so the range for M5S is different from the one for FdI, which is different from the one for Lega, etc.

So one takeaway, from looking at this is that if any alliance wants to win a majority in the post-EU Bailout environment, they need strong appeal relative to the baseline in both the North and South. This is because each side now has different priorities, or different perceptions/reactions/justifications for the same issues. This is very hard to achieve as a single party, with Lega's 2019 EU election results being the most recent example - a situation quickly lost after their failed gamble for early elections. It was also the effective situation in both of Conte's governments: coalitions between a northern party and the southern M5S. When I use those terms, I am referring to what is seen on the economic indicators like GDP/per capita with Rome essentially as the dividing line, not a specific definition using say the Po or old borders of the Two Sicily's.

This is especially visible among the Left, once we understand that voter movements went M5S -> PD and PD -> A-IV in relation to 2018. PD picked up what support M5S has in the north, most visible in Genoa, but also lost some voters to Renzi. Holding said voters would make them even more of a northern party. Like their support in Red Tuscany didn't collapse, it just got outnumbered when compared to a more numerous foe. M5S, sucked of those voters who saw themselves as more right then left, are now the progressive option in the South, best seen by how they held up in Naples, Catania, Palermo, etc. By contrast, I'm not sure how well the right understands this reality rather than lucked into it. Forza and partially FdI carried the conservative Banner in the south, with Lega and FdI carried the north.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Sir Mohamed on September 26, 2022, 10:38:50 AM
I'm skeptical that new govt will last all too long. Italian cabinets are shortlived and I'd be surprised if Moloni makes it half-way through that 5 year legislative term. If recent precedents are followed, she'd be replaced by someone around 2024. By another right-wing that makes things even worse, before some technocrat like Draghi or Monti is appointed for the remainder of the term.

Anyway, this result is bad news for Europe and the Western alliance after all. Possibly for the stability of the Eurozone, too.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Estrella on September 26, 2022, 11:00:04 AM

A nominally social democratic party and a nominally centrist liberal technocratic party have no business having basically the same patterns of support, but that's Italy for you.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: palandio on September 26, 2022, 11:47:44 AM

Good maps. There seems to be an error regarding the FdI percentage in Lombardia 4, though.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 26, 2022, 11:48:48 AM

A nominally social democratic party and a nominally centrist liberal technocratic party have no business having basically the same patterns of support, but that's Italy for you.

Their patterns of support are superficially similar but hardly the same - look at how they did in the rural North (i.e. the right-wing base). They are like two roads running down the same hill but one following a gentle but steady slope and the other alternating steep parts and plateaus. Obviously yes, the M5S is a completely different road... but I have reason to talk since I live in the area of the country where they get the closest to a crossroads.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 26, 2022, 11:49:43 AM
A-IV vote seems highly correlated with the PD vote.  I guess the center-left vote in the South mostly went with M5S


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 26, 2022, 12:05:07 PM

Good maps. There seems to be an error regarding the FdI percentage in Lombardia 4, though.

Thanks for catching that I had 20.8 not 30.8. Fixed.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: parochial boy on September 26, 2022, 12:20:45 PM
Slightly random question, but is there any reason Aosta still maintains it's big regionalist vote?

I mean for all the "French/Arpitan" stuff the region is still very overwhelmingly Italian speaking in practice and doesn't rseem to really have the big cultural distinctiveness that South Tyrol does


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 26, 2022, 12:32:21 PM
Slightly random question, but is there any reason Aosta still maintains it's big regionalist vote?

I mean for all the "French/Arpitan" stuff the region is still very overwhelmingly Italian speaking in practice and doesn't rseem to really have the big cultural distinctiveness that South Tyrol does

I mean Valle d'Aosta overwhelmingly conducts official business in Italian but Arpitan/Patois is far from dead (although I am not sure how much of a factor it is in support for UV and the rest). Still, it is a very small, fairly remote and kind of insular region with extensive autonomy and a distinct cultural background, so it's not surprising that it has maintained its own partially separate politics to me. Maybe it would not be the case if all this time it had just been a province of Piedmont but we'll never know.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 26, 2022, 12:38:11 PM
Slightly random question, but is there any reason Aosta still maintains it's big regionalist vote?

I mean for all the "French/Arpitan" stuff the region is still very overwhelmingly Italian speaking in practice and doesn't rseem to really have the big cultural distinctiveness that South Tyrol does

It's absolutely culturally distinctive, and plenty of people do speak French or Patois. I mean maybe not as much as Alto Adige, but more so than Trentino.

The political distinctiveness is mostly inherited and/or a product of the region's special status encouraging local thinking. It has eroded somewhat in the past decade (Lega getting the regional presidency was a grim milestone) but I don't think it will disappear anytime soon.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 26, 2022, 12:56:23 PM
Why does

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI

show 146 FPTP seats for the lower house. I thought there were 147 FPTP seats ..


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 26, 2022, 12:58:43 PM
The Interior Ministry published a (tentative, since there are still a few dozen unreported precincts) distribution of PR seats, which gives 114 seats to the right in the House and 56 in the Senate - one fewer than I estimated in each. Not sure if the results moved a bit since I last calculated them or if I didn't use the right formula, but either way, worth noting.

FI gets 22 seats in the House and 9 in the Senate - so far not enough to be decisive in either, but we'll have to see who the winners of FPP districts are. FI needs 16 more in the House and 7 more in the Senate, so well within reach.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 26, 2022, 01:00:29 PM
The Interior Ministry published a (tentative, since there are still a few dozen unreported precincts) distribution of PR seats, which gives 114 seats to the right in the House and 56 in the Senate - one fewer than I estimated in each. Not sure if the results moved a bit since I last calculated them or if I didn't use the right formula, but either way, worth noting.

How are the PR seats doled out again? If I remember right they still have constituencies but... it's done nationally? So are the number of seats worked out nationally and then just filled out at constituency level without having to align with votes cast in them, or...?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 26, 2022, 01:04:28 PM
The Interior Ministry published a (tentative, since there are still a few dozen unreported precincts) distribution of PR seats, which gives 114 seats to the right in the House and 56 in the Senate - one fewer than I estimated in each. Not sure if the results moved a bit since I last calculated them or if I didn't use the right formula, but either way, worth noting.

How are the PR seats doled out again? If I remember right they still have constituencies but... it's done nationally? So are the number of seats worked out nationally and then just filled out at constituency level without having to align with votes cast in them, or...?

I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution). In the Senate, I'm not sure. It's possible they're still allotted regionally, which would explain FI's relative underperformance (higher effective threshold).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 26, 2022, 01:16:04 PM
I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution).

Right. This is the part I struggle with... just... what? It seems completely nonsensical?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Ferguson97 on September 26, 2022, 01:21:33 PM
Can't believe they made Mussolini a woman in the reboot. Wokeness run amuck.



Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Logical on September 26, 2022, 01:35:51 PM
The Interior Ministry published a (tentative, since there are still a few dozen unreported precincts) distribution of PR seats, which gives 114 seats to the right in the House and 56 in the Senate - one fewer than I estimated in each. Not sure if the results moved a bit since I last calculated them or if I didn't use the right formula, but either way, worth noting.

FI gets 22 seats in the House and 9 in the Senate - so far not enough to be decisive in either, but we'll have to see who the winners of FPP districts are. FI needs 16 more in the House and 7 more in the Senate, so well within reach.

Are the PR seats distributed in 2 steps (by coalition list and then by parties inside the list) or directly by parties?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on September 26, 2022, 01:46:12 PM
I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution).

Right. This is the part I struggle with... just... what? It seems completely nonsensical?
Italy just have a normal electoral law challenge (screaming, crying, throwing up)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: If my soul was made of stone on September 26, 2022, 01:47:45 PM
I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution).

Right. This is the part I struggle with... just... what? It seems completely nonsensical?
Italy just have a normal electoral law challenge (screaming, crying, throwing up)

The year is 2057. Italians head to the polls for a referendum on reducing the size of the Chamber to 15 (plus 29 winner's bonus seats) elected by Borda count. The proposal is supported by all major parties except Lega (dei Ticinesi)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: ilikeverin on September 26, 2022, 02:03:42 PM
I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution).

Right. This is the part I struggle with... just... what? It seems completely nonsensical?

So, wait... the PR is computed nationally, and then... it's magically copy-pasted to each region‽‽‽


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: President Johnson on September 26, 2022, 02:11:42 PM
So Salvini will return as Interior Minister? Will Silvio "Bunga Bunga" Berlusconi take any cabinet position?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on September 26, 2022, 02:15:27 PM
Why does

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI

show 146 FPTP seats for the lower house. I thought there were 147 FPTP seats ..

the 147th is Aosta Valley. It is not included in that calculation


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on September 26, 2022, 02:16:29 PM
The Interior Ministry published a (tentative, since there are still a few dozen unreported precincts) distribution of PR seats, which gives 114 seats to the right in the House and 56 in the Senate - one fewer than I estimated in each. Not sure if the results moved a bit since I last calculated them or if I didn't use the right formula, but either way, worth noting.

How are the PR seats doled out again? If I remember right they still have constituencies but... it's done nationally? So are the number of seats worked out nationally and then just filled out at constituency level without having to align with votes cast in them, or...?

I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution). In the Senate, I'm not sure. It's possible they're still allotted regionally, which would explain FI's relative underperformance (higher effective threshold).

Yes, alloted at regional level for the Senate




The Interior Ministry published a (tentative, since there are still a few dozen unreported precincts) distribution of PR seats, which gives 114 seats to the right in the House and 56 in the Senate - one fewer than I estimated in each. Not sure if the results moved a bit since I last calculated them or if I didn't use the right formula, but either way, worth noting.

FI gets 22 seats in the House and 9 in the Senate - so far not enough to be decisive in either, but we'll have to see who the winners of FPP districts are. FI needs 16 more in the House and 7 more in the Senate, so well within reach.

Are the PR seats distributed in 2 steps (by coalition list and then by parties inside the list) or directly by parties?

IIRC, yes.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on September 26, 2022, 02:19:00 PM
I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution).

Right. This is the part I struggle with... just... what? It seems completely nonsensical?

It is even worse...broken down in circumscriptions and then from circumscription into plurinominal constituencies....
total seats for circumscriptions and plurinominal constituencies should match their overall entitlements...but the toal for each list should match the national totals....


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 26, 2022, 02:20:46 PM
I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution).

Right. This is the part I struggle with... just... what? It seems completely nonsensical?

I believe each party is assigned as many seats as the number of full quotas they reached inside each multi-member constituency, and then all the remaining seats they are entitled to are assigned to them in the constituencies where they have the highest remainder.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 26, 2022, 02:27:00 PM
...


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: If my soul was made of stone on September 26, 2022, 02:28:41 PM
I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution).

Right. This is the part I struggle with... just... what? It seems completely nonsensical?

I believe each party is assigned as many seats as the number of full quotas they reached inside each multi-member constituency, and then all the remaining seats they are entitled to are assigned to them in the constituencies where they have the highest remainder.

()


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on September 26, 2022, 02:40:11 PM
Point h of article 1 of electoral law

Subsequently, the Office ascertains if the number of seats assigned in all constituencies a
each coalition of lists or single list corresponds to the number of
seats determined pursuant to letter f). [the total number of seats assigned at national level]
If not, proceeds to the following operations, starting with the coalition of lists or single list that has the largest number of excess seats and, in case of parity of excess seats by more than one coalition of lists or single lists, from the one that has obtained the highest national electoral share, then continuing with the other coalitions of lists or single lists in descending order of excess seats:

it subtracts the excess seats from the coalition of lists or single lists in the circumscriptions in which it obtained them with the parties decimals of the attribution quotients, according to their order growing, and in which also the coalitions of lists or singles lists, which have not obtained the number of seats due, have unused decimal parts of quotients.
Consequently, assigns seats to such coalitions of lists or single lists.
 So far as in the same constituency two or more coalitions of lists o individual lists have unused decimal parts of the quotients, the seat is attributed to the coalition of lists or to the single list
with the highest decimal part of the quotient not used or, in case of parity, to the one with the highest national electoral figure.
In the event that it is not possible to assign the seat in excess in the same constituency, as there are no coalitions of lists or single lists in deficit with decimal parts of quotients not
used, the Office continues, for the same coalition of lists o single excess list, in the order of increasing decimals, identify another constituency, until it is possible subtract the surplus seat and assign it to a coalition of lists or single list in deficit in the same constituency.
if it is not possible to refer to same circumscription for the purpose of completing previous operations, up to the number of seats still to be sold, to the coalition of slates or single surplus slates are subtracted from the seats in the circumscriptions in which he obtained them with the minor parts decimals of the attribution quotient and the coalition of lists o seats are consequently assigned to a single list in deficit in the other circumscriptions in which it has the major parts unused decimals of the attribution quotient;


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 26, 2022, 02:55:19 PM
To play devil's advocate, the basic idea here actually makes a lot of sense: you assign within a constituency the seats that parties are actually entitled to based on their results, and send the remaining votes to a higher geographic tier so that you can do another proportional allocation there. That way, as many seats as possible are assigned at the most local level while still ensuring overall proportionality. It's a very elegant concept, and iirc one that's been used in Denmark with great success.

The thing is that it makes no sense within the broader context of Italy's insane electoral system, which doesn't give a sh*t either about proportionality or local representation. Here it's just some pointless, ridiculous complication.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: MRCVzla on September 26, 2022, 03:12:00 PM
Why does

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI

show 146 FPTP seats for the lower house. I thought there were 147 FPTP seats ..

As they say before, Aosta Valley is the 147th seat and it's counted aside of the rest of the country and Abroad constituency for their pure FPTP nature (as well the 6 Senate seats from South Tyrol).

Speaking of Aosta Valley, the House seat was won by the alliance between the PD, Azione/IV and the main autonomist parties (a Union Valdotaine member), but in the Senate was a close race won by the centre-right single candidate (a former regional president from Lega). In the House what cost the gain for the Cdx here was the vote splitting to a local Renaissance Valdotaine candidate, a party linked to Vittorio Sgarbi' national movement (similar be said by the centre-left-autonomist in the Senate, also affected by a vote splitting for a former Senator/regional president candidacy).

The South Tyrol Senate seats went 2 by each pole, Csx won Bolzano and Trento, Cdx hold Rovereto and Pergine Valsugana while the SVP retains their german-speaking districts of Merano and Bressanone, in the Chamber SVP won the 2 Bolzano province seats while the 2 Trento province seats stayed at Cdx)

While in the Abroad constituencies, PD won 3/4 Senators (minus South America who went to MAIE, winning by a landslide in Argentina as usual, meaning former F1 champion Emerson Fittipaldi endorsed by the Cdx lost) and 4/8 seats (including "virologist" Andrea Crisanti in the Europe constituency), the Centre-right only elected a Lega incumbent in Europe and a FdI member in North/Central America, the other seats went to M5S who hold an Europe seat and the usual MAIE seat in South America as well, all of those in the House.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2022, 03:13:34 PM
So Salvini will return as Interior Minister? Will Silvio "Bunga Bunga" Berlusconi take any cabinet position?

From what I've heard in the media, President of the Senate is a possibility.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 26, 2022, 03:25:13 PM
Why does

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI

show 146 FPTP seats for the lower house. I thought there were 147 FPTP seats ..

the 147th is Aosta Valley. It is not included in that calculation

Got it thanks.  I guess a similar question

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/senato/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniSI

has 67 FPTP seats for the Senate.  But I thought there were 74 such FPTP seats.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 26, 2022, 03:32:31 PM
Why does

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI

show 146 FPTP seats for the lower house. I thought there were 147 FPTP seats ..

the 147th is Aosta Valley. It is not included in that calculation

Got it thanks.  I guess a similar question

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/senato/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniSI

has 67 FPTP seats for the Senate.  But I thought there were 74 such FPTP seats.

Six of them are the Trentino-Alto Adige ones [the region has no PR part in the Senate so it's computed separately] and the 74th is again Aosta Valley.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on September 26, 2022, 04:05:33 PM
All calculations in the distribution of PR seats at the House

https://dait.interno.gov.it/documenti/Camera_riparto_italia_20220925.pdf


MPs elected at the House
https://dait.interno.gov.it/documenti/Politiche2022_Eletti_Camera_Italia.pdf
https://dait.interno.gov.it/documenti/Politiche2022_Eletti_Camera_Estero.pdf

MPs elected at the Senate
https://dait.interno.gov.it/documenti/Politiche2022_Eletti_Senato_Italia.pdf
https://dait.interno.gov.it/documenti/Politiche2022_Eletti_Senato_Estero.pdf

Some have been elected in more constituencies, so they will have decide where giving up.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 26, 2022, 04:17:12 PM
()

This map is normalized to the parties vote overall, so the range for M5S is different from the one for FdI, which is different from the one for Lega, etc.

So one takeaway, from looking at this is that if any alliance wants to win a majority in the post-EU Bailout environment, they need strong appeal relative to the baseline in both the North and South. This is very hard to achieve as a single party, with Lega's 2019 EU election results being the most recent example - a situation quickly lost after their failed gamble for early elections. It was also the effective situation in both of Conte's governments: coalitions between a northern party and the southern M5S. When I use those terms, I am referring to what is seen on the economic indicators like GDP/per capita with Rome essentially as the dividing line, not a specific definition using say the Po or old borders of the Two Sicily's.

This is especially visible among the Left, once we understand that voter movements went M5S -> PD and PD -> A-IV in relation to 2018. PD picked up what support M5S has in the north, most visible in Genoa, but also lost some voters to Renzi. Holding said voters would make them even more of a northern party. Like their support in Red Tuscany didn't collapse, it just got outnumbered when compared to a more numerous foe. M5S, sucked of those voters who saw themselves as more right then left, are now the progressive option in the South, best seen by how they held up in Naples, Catania, Palermo, etc. By contrast, I'm not sure how well the right understands this reality rather than lucked into it. Forza and partially FdI carried the conservative Banner in the south, with Lega and FdI carried the north.

I am, as ever, obsessed with the mess that's Basilicata.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 26, 2022, 04:22:51 PM
For those who are interested, Mastella's wife got 14% in her constituency of Benevento, which is pretty impressive but of course very much not enough to win, and the list got crumbs elsewhere.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 26, 2022, 04:26:21 PM
For those who are interested, Mastella's wife got 14% in her constituency of Benevento, which is pretty impressive but of course very much not enough to win, and the list got crumbs elsewhere.

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 26, 2022, 04:31:50 PM
In an election marked by wild swings, one thing stayed the same: PD still managed to sweep the expat seats, winning 4/8 seats in the House and 3/4 in the Senate. The right only got 2 seats in the House and 0 in the Senate. They got really screwed by the reduction in seats there, as all the Senate constituencies were now effectively SMDs, and all but one House constituency had one or two seats.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on September 26, 2022, 04:45:31 PM
And Tabacci lives for another day.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Ex-Assemblyman Steelers on September 26, 2022, 05:13:46 PM
So Salvini will return as Interior Minister? Will Silvio "Bunga Bunga" Berlusconi take any cabinet position?

From what I've heard in the media, President of the Senate is a possibility.
He is going to be Minister of Youth


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: If my soul was made of stone on September 26, 2022, 05:20:20 PM
So Salvini will return as Interior Minister? Will Silvio "Bunga Bunga" Berlusconi take any cabinet position?

From what I've heard in the media, President of the Senate is a possibility.
He is going to be Minister of Youth

Minister for LGBT Rights (he's a quarter lesbian)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 26, 2022, 05:21:57 PM
The centre-left bloc seems to have improved sizably with poorer constituencies (for instance, it scored +7 in Campania 1, a whopping +9 in Sardinia, +7 in the third Rome FPTP district which is the city's poorest and the one where it increased the most, +7 in Settimo Torinese which is Turin's most classically industrial working class suburb) and barely or not at all with the richest ones (it actually lost ground in central Rome, central Milan, Bergamo). This is not surprising - some M5S voters came back for sure, and Calenzi had to take from somewhere - but still somewhat ironic. Then, on the one hand Nature Is Healing, on the other hand this just goes to show how damn stupid and sh**tty the 2018 round was...


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on September 26, 2022, 06:02:29 PM
Congratulations to Italy for breaking the glass ceiling...in the f***ing worst way possible...

At the very least, given Italy's history, Meloni's government will probably implode spectacularly sooner or later. I guess we can look forward to that?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: adma on September 26, 2022, 06:16:17 PM
Congratulations to Italy for breaking the glass ceiling...in the f***ing worst way possible...

At the very least, given Italy's history, Meloni's government will probably implode spectacularly sooner or later. I guess we can look forward to that?

I wonder how much Pollyannaish wishful think (not least among those who voted *this time*) might be instilled that FdI represents some kind of latent benignish-big-tent evolution-beyond a la the heirs to Peronism in Argentina...


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2022, 06:26:40 PM
Results by town/municipality:



Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez on September 26, 2022, 10:27:09 PM
Congratulations to Italy for breaking the glass ceiling...in the f***ing worst way possible...

At the very least, given Italy's history, Meloni's government will probably implode spectacularly sooner or later. I guess we can look forward to that?

It never occurs to many on the Left that low immigration,  a non-globalist framework for policy, and an emphasis on preservation of family and culture is what Italian voters want.

If "God. Family. Country" is now Far Right, then God Help Western Civilization.

Italy is not America.   It gets to be what Italian voters want.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 26, 2022, 10:49:39 PM
Congratulations to Italy for breaking the glass ceiling...in the f***ing worst way possible...

At the very least, given Italy's history, Meloni's government will probably implode spectacularly sooner or later. I guess we can look forward to that?

It never occurs to many on the Left that low immigration,  a non-globalist framework for policy, and an emphasis on preservation of family and culture is what Italian voters want.

If "God. Family. Country" is now Far Right, then God Help Western Civilization.

Italy is not America.   It gets to be what Italian voters want.

Those were more 2018 issues. My understanding is that this time the right's messaging focused more on the last few governments' failure to lastingly improve Italians' living standards. One of many reasons why I agree with Battista that the dynamics of this election are frankly not quite as depressing as those of the last one, even though the results of this one are even worse.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on September 26, 2022, 10:55:17 PM
Congratulations to Italy for breaking the glass ceiling...in the f***ing worst way possible...

At the very least, given Italy's history, Meloni's government will probably implode spectacularly sooner or later. I guess we can look forward to that?

It never occurs to many on the Left that low immigration,  a non-globalist framework for policy, and an emphasis on preservation of family and culture is what Italian voters want.

If "God. Family. Country" is now Far Right, then God Help Western Civilization.

Italy is not America.   It gets to be what Italian voters want.

Those were more 2018 issues. My understanding is that this time the right's messaging focused more on the last few governments' failure to lastingly improve Italians' living standards. One of many reasons why I agree with Battista that the dynamics of this election are frankly not quite as depressing as those of the last one, even though the results of this one are even worse.

Ideally the result of this election would be to make the political parties wake up to the concept of normal politics, where the voters make their choice and then the winner of the election forms government, instead of the endless procession of non-party technocratic governments Italy has had since 2011. It's no wonder that the electorate voted against that!

Unfortunately I think this is unlikely, since Italian politicians have realized that if they never take responsibility for anything they can never be voted out.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 26, 2022, 11:05:39 PM
So I guess just to make myself cry, I made this:

()

Map shows the seats where different alliance patterns could have prevailed over the right (of course that's somewhat theoretical, as not all of those votes would have stuck together in such a scenario):

Won by the Left: 12 (H), 7 (S)
Won by M5S: 10 (H), 5 (S)
Won by others: 4 (H), 3 (S)
Left+Calenda OR Left+M5S beats the Right: 13 (H), 4 (S)
Left+M5S beats the Right: 37 (H), 24 (S)
Left+M5S+Calenda+SVP beats the Right: 18 (H), 9 (S)
Right wins regardless: 53 (H), 22 (S)

So even a simple alliance with Calenda's clique, something that was actually on the verge of happening, would have taken the right a full 13 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate (confirming my intuition that the Right won a lot more marginals in the House than in the Senate). That alone would reduce their majorities to 224 and 111 respectively, which would put it in line with previous right-wing majorities. If the Left had somehow managed an alliance with M5S, meanwhile, they could actually have forced another hung parliament, with only 187 and 87 seats left for the Right. And an (obviously fantastical) "all against the Right" coalition would theoretically have clinched a pretty decisive majority.

Of course only the first scenario is even remotely realistic, but I guess we'll have to see what that means for Italy's future. Most pressingly, what this shows is that there is a real, strong potential for left-populist majorities in Southern Italy which could form the basis for an alternative to the current wave of right-wing populism. Whether M5S and PD can work together to make this potential a reality remains to be seen.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 26, 2022, 11:50:25 PM
LOL The Atlantic:

()


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 27, 2022, 03:25:12 AM
Congratulations to Italy for breaking the glass ceiling...in the f***ing worst way possible...

At the very least, given Italy's history, Meloni's government will probably implode spectacularly sooner or later. I guess we can look forward to that?

It never occurs to many on the Left that low immigration,  a non-globalist framework for policy, and an emphasis on preservation of family and culture is what Italian voters want.

If "God. Family. Country" is now Far Right, then God Help Western Civilization.

Italy is not America.   It gets to be what Italian voters want.

Those were more 2018 issues. My understanding is that this time the right's messaging focused more on the last few governments' failure to lastingly improve Italians' living standards. One of many reasons why I agree with Battista that the dynamics of this election are frankly not quite as depressing as those of the last one, even though the results of this one are even worse.

Ideally the result of this election would be to make the political parties wake up to the concept of normal politics, where the voters make their choice and then the winner of the election forms government, instead of the endless procession of non-party technocratic governments Italy has had since 2011. It's no wonder that the electorate voted against that!

Unfortunately I think this is unlikely, since Italian politicians have realized that if they never take responsibility for anything they can never be voted out.

The voters made their choice in 2013 and in 2018 and in both cases the result was that there was no winner - this was hardly respected in the first case because the stupid electoral system gave the left an artificial Chamber majority, but the second time they got exactly what they wanted (total confusion and the balance of power given to incompetent morons who don't know which side they're on except the side of The People <3). You could argue that this was the case this year as well, since after all more people voted for the non-Right blocs combined than for the Right, but either way the electoral system prized the latter so that's moot.

However, it is certainly ironic that we could return to the "normal politics" that applied two and three decades ago with a majority for the same Right coalition (Giorgia Meloni was literally a minister in Berlusconi IV) whose complete irresponsibility last time they were in power precipitated the mess of the last decade, and it tells you a lot about how terrible our Left is at doing anything.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on September 27, 2022, 04:52:15 AM
At least 35 M5S MPs re-elected

Aiello Davide 
Ascari Stefania 
Baldino Vittoria 
Bruno Raffaele 
Cantone Luciano   
Castellone Maria Domenica 
Cataldi Roberto 
Croatti Marco 
D'orso Valentina 
Dell'olio Gianmauro 
Di Girolamo Gabriella 
Di Lauro Carmela 
Fede Giorgio 
Fenu Emiliano 
Floridia Barbara 
Fontana Ilaria 
Giuliano Carla 
Gubitosa Michele 
Guidolin Barbara 
L'abbate Pasqua 
Licheri Ettore Antonio 
Lomuti Arnaldo 
Maiorino Alessandra 
Naturale Gisella 
Pellegrini Marco 
Pirro Elisa 
Raffa Angela 
Ricciardi Riccardo 
Santillo Agostino 
Scerra Filippo 
Silvestri Francesco 
Sportiello Gilda 
Torto Daniela 
Traversi Roberto 
Turco Mario 


Some people like Conte were elected in more constituencies. I didn't check who was second in line behind them.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Mike88 on September 27, 2022, 06:10:51 AM
Vote transfer diagram:



Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Mike88 on September 27, 2022, 06:47:20 AM
Meloni refuses to give a cabinet post to Salvini:


Quote
Meloni's veto on Salvini: "Matteo will have no key ministries"

Inside Lega, Salvini's leadership is also being questioned and some say that it's time for a new leader. (https://milano.repubblica.it/cronaca/2022/09/27/news/lega_roberto_maroni_matteo_salvini_nuovo_segretario-367510168/?ref=RHTP-BH-I367486161-P3-S1-T1)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Person Man on September 27, 2022, 07:23:31 AM
An excellent summary on the state of the Italian election campaign:

Italy poised for glass ceiling-shattering vote, hard right turn (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/italy-poised-for-glass-ceiling-shattering-vote-hard-right-turn/ar-AA12dhPS?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=5e228e5cb76f486dba4d0470f9f8dcff)

I guess LePen should of run in Italy.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on September 27, 2022, 07:50:07 AM
I see the 16 MPs elected by Green/Left list include 3 former M5S (2 sitting MPs and 1 sitting MEP).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Lord Halifax on September 27, 2022, 08:55:14 AM
I was wondering is Forza Italia likely to disintegrate when Berlusconi dies? and if so, who is most likely to get their vote?

Sorry for bumping this, but given how extremely old Berlusconi is (he turns 86 in a few days) it seems very likely he'll either die or become senile during the term, so what happens to FI afterwards? And if it disintegrates will that benefit FdI?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 27, 2022, 10:19:10 AM
Meloni refuses to give a cabinet post to Salvini:


Quote
Meloni's veto on Salvini: "Matteo will have no key ministries"

Inside Lega, Salvini's leadership is also being questioned and some say that it's time for a new leader. (https://milano.repubblica.it/cronaca/2022/09/27/news/lega_roberto_maroni_matteo_salvini_nuovo_segretario-367510168/?ref=RHTP-BH-I367486161-P3-S1-T1)

Hahahahahahahahahahaha

Gotta respect Meloni for moving to sideline the Kidnapper so quickly.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 27, 2022, 10:24:53 AM
I was wondering is Forza Italia likely to disintegrate when Berlusconi dies? and if so, who is most likely to get their vote?

Sorry for bumping this, but given how extremely old Berlusconi is (he turns 86 in a few days) it seems very likely he'll either die or become senile during the term, so what happens to FI afterwards? And if it disintegrates will that benefit FdI?

The simple answer is that nobody knows. FI has always been Berlusconi's personal vehicle, and it is now more than ever given the exodus of the last "moderates" to Azione in the past few months. Personally I would guess it implodes once Berlusconi is out of the picture, with its voters likely migrating to other right-wing parties, but it's possible it manages to stick around as a token moderating force on the Lega and FdI dominated right.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 27, 2022, 11:08:52 AM
FdI: 24.9%
Lega: 12.1%
FI: 7.7%
NM: 1.3% (1.4% when included)
Total Right: 46%

PD: 21.5%
AVS: 3.6%
+E: 1.8% (1.9% when included)
IC: 1% (1.2% when included)
Total Center-Left: 27%

M5S: 13.4%

A-IV: 6.7%

Italexit: 2.7% (2.8% when included)

UP: 0.5% (1.2% when included)

We still don't have official results because >Italy (most of the unreported precincts come from Southern Sicily, so you can expect both the left and right to go down a bit and M5S to go up, but only by a tenth of a percentage point at most), but screw it, let's see how the polls went.

The right underperformed by 2.2 points (+1.1 for FdI, -3.3 for Lega, +0.4 for FI, -0.4 for NM).
The left underperformed by... wait f**k I made a ridiculous mistake when adding up the Left's vote last time. Oh great. Well. It underperformed by 1.8 points, not 0.9 as it would look from those charts. Specifically -2.4 for PD, just right for AVS, +1 for +E, -0.4 for IC).
M5S overperformed by 2.
A/IV overperformed by 1.1.
Italexit underperformed by 0.8.
UP overperformed by 0.9 lol (although really that's just because they were often not polled).
That also means the miscellaneous other parties also overperformed, which is interesting. I would actually have expected the opposite.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 27, 2022, 01:06:41 PM
Okay, one final metric to try to get around the distortionary effect of the 2-weeks polling ban. I have taken the previously computed polling average and then corrected it using the average swing seen in the two illegal polls published after the ban. Admittedly that's a pretty ad-hoc process (there's a reason I'm only doing it now and not before the election) but it's the best way to actually measure the effect of late trends vs actual, genuine polling error.

Here is what we get:

FdI: 24.7%
Lega: 9.8%
FI: 7.7%
NM: 1.5%
Total Right: 43.7%

PD: 20.4%
AVS: 4.0%
+E: 2.2%
IC: 0.9
Total Center-Left: 27.5%

M5S: 15.9%

A-IV: 7.5%

Italexit: 2.9%


Based on this, the right actually performed exactly as expected, while both the left and even M5S underperformed (as well as Italexit, lol). Sad, but I guess in line with past results.

Looking party by party, the only really significant movements we see is FdI taking an additional point away from Lega, and PD just hemorrhaging 1 to 1.5 points (about half of which went to +E and probably a little to A/IV too).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Ferguson97 on September 27, 2022, 01:44:22 PM


this woman is evil


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: mileslunn on September 27, 2022, 01:51:19 PM
Meloni refuses to give a cabinet post to Salvini:


Quote
Meloni's veto on Salvini: "Matteo will have no key ministries"

Inside Lega, Salvini's leadership is also being questioned and some say that it's time for a new leader. (https://milano.repubblica.it/cronaca/2022/09/27/news/lega_roberto_maroni_matteo_salvini_nuovo_segretario-367510168/?ref=RHTP-BH-I367486161-P3-S1-T1)

She may regret that as he has a huge ego and I cannot see that going over well.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 27, 2022, 02:57:46 PM
Meloni refuses to give a cabinet post to Salvini:


Quote
Meloni's veto on Salvini: "Matteo will have no key ministries"

Inside Lega, Salvini's leadership is also being questioned and some say that it's time for a new leader. (https://milano.repubblica.it/cronaca/2022/09/27/news/lega_roberto_maroni_matteo_salvini_nuovo_segretario-367510168/?ref=RHTP-BH-I367486161-P3-S1-T1)

Hahahahahahahahahahaha

Gotta respect Meloni for moving to sideline the Kidnapper so quickly.

GASLIGHT
GATEKEEP
GIRLBOSS


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: palandio on September 27, 2022, 03:18:32 PM
Okay, one final metric to try to get around the distortionary effect of the 2-weeks polling ban. I have taken the previously computed polling average and then corrected it using the average swing seen in the two illegal polls published after the ban. Admittedly that's a pretty ad-hoc process (there's a reason I'm only doing it now and not before the election) but it's the best way to actually measure the effect of late trends vs actual, genuine polling error.

Here is what we get:

FdI: 24.7%
Lega: 9.8%
FI: 7.7%
NM: 1.5%
Total Right: 43.7%

PD: 20.4%
AVS: 4.0%
+E: 2.2%
IC: 0.9
Total Center-Left: 27.5%

M5S: 15.9%

A-IV: 7.5%

Italexit: 2.9%


Based on this, the right actually performed exactly as expected, while both the left and even M5S underperformed (as well as Italexit, lol). Sad, but I guess in line with past results.

Looking party by party, the only really significant movements we see is FdI taking an additional point away from Lega, and PD just hemorrhaging 1 to 1.5 points (about half of which went to +E and probably a little to A/IV too).
You could also try to extrapolate the trend observed during the weeks before the polling ban:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Opinion_Polls_Italy_General_Election_2022.svg
Or you could look at exit polls.

Whatever you do, one percentage point more or less is not a lot in the polling business. Given their abyssmal track record (even regarding exit polls), I was sure that Italian pollsters would get at least one number completely wrong. They didn't, they were spot on. Either they were super lucky this time or they really improved massively. Chapeau, Italian pollsters!


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on September 27, 2022, 04:05:34 PM


Looks like she just lost a lot of her American online fans


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 27, 2022, 04:52:04 PM


Looks like she just lost a lot of her American online fans

Those fans clearly then were Fairweather, and didn't do their research.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on September 27, 2022, 05:04:26 PM
Congratulations to Italy for breaking the glass ceiling...in the f***ing worst way possible...

At the very least, given Italy's history, Meloni's government will probably implode spectacularly sooner or later. I guess we can look forward to that?

It never occurs to many on the Left that low immigration,  a non-globalist framework for policy, and an emphasis on preservation of family and culture is what Italian voters want.

If "God. Family. Country" is now Far Right, then God Help Western Civilization.

Italy is not America.   It gets to be what Italian voters want.

I just wish they would get those things from a political party that didn't have its roots in Mussolini's Fascist Party. I'm sorry, but when that's the case, I don't think any political party should have any credibility, no matter what they campaign on.

Ideally, if Meloni's government ends up as bad as it looks, it will be a harsh lesson to the rest of the world who wants to flirt with far-right populism.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on September 27, 2022, 05:06:26 PM


Looks like she just lost a lot of her American online fans

Those fans clearly then were Fairweather, and didn't do their research.

I mean most probably just saw that a “populist right” leader won and became fans cause of that . Like you can imagine certain posters on here who would have been happy when she won but then would get mad about this .


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 27, 2022, 05:31:04 PM
Can we not have arguments that are actually about American political psychodramas in this thread? Thank you. :) :) :)


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Mike88 on September 27, 2022, 05:44:04 PM
Meloni refuses to give a cabinet post to Salvini:


Quote
Meloni's veto on Salvini: "Matteo will have no key ministries"

Inside Lega, Salvini's leadership is also being questioned and some say that it's time for a new leader. (https://milano.repubblica.it/cronaca/2022/09/27/news/lega_roberto_maroni_matteo_salvini_nuovo_segretario-367510168/?ref=RHTP-BH-I367486161-P3-S1-T1)

She may regret that as he has a huge ego and I cannot see that going over well.

It depends if Salvini remains as leader of Lega or not. Right now, several in the party want to boot him out, mainly because of the catastrophic results, but also because the party's founder, Umberto Bossi, failed to be elected to the Senate, and this is being perceived, within the party, as total humiliation of Bossi with Salvini the only responsible.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 27, 2022, 05:44:58 PM


Looks like she just lost a lot of her American online fans

Thank God for small blessings.

Hopefully the Constitutional Court will at the very least put the kibosh on any changes to family policy that involve breaking up existing same-sex-parent families.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 27, 2022, 09:32:08 PM
Here's a couple quick-and-dirty maps comparing the coalitions' standings now to the EU elections 3 years ago. Back then, parties that today form the right-wing coalition got 50.2% of the vote, the left coalition got 29.8%, and M5S 17.3% (this is excluding VdA and TAA to make comparison easier). Hilariously enough, all three coalitions got lower percentages this time, even though given the majoritarian-ish voting system there was far more of an incentive to vote tactically. Maurice Duverger must be rolling in his grave.

Comparing these results to those of the Senate this year (Right 44%, Left 26%, M5S 15.6%), we get the following maps by coalitions. I had to find creative color scales for each since these maps are overwhelmingly negative for all three, but I hope this does the trick.

()

The right lost ground everywhere, but most dramatically in Sicily (thanks to the rando center-right independent who managed to get an impressive amount of support there) and in Lombardy, where the decline of Salvinismo probably hit it particularly hard. By contrast, it held up pretty well in Lazio (there has to be at least a bit of a home turf advantage there), and for some reason, Tuscany and Sardinia. Conversely, Tuscany is where the left lost most (perhaps due to a Renzi home turf effect? A/IV managed to get 9% there), while it otherwise held up decently in the North as well as in the central Adriatic area (hilariously improving by 4 points in Molise). Meanwhile, M5S held up well in its Southern strongholds, which is probably all that really matters for it.

Putting those three maps together, we get this one, which basically shows the "swing" among the top two (basically whether the right lost more or less than whichever, of the left or M5S, is its strongest challenger in the region). The right comes out ahead in Lazio and Tuscany (which actually probably netted them quite a few constituencies, as that region is full of marginals). M5S does remarkably well down South, which again was really the key to them. The left improved over the right in the rest of the country, but these improvements were either small or happened in very right-wing regions like Lombary and Veneto, so their actual effect is probably minimal.

()


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: omar04 on September 27, 2022, 10:08:21 PM
How strong are the rural -> rightwards and urban -> leftwards trends? This seems to be a decent predictor looking at the maps for a moment.  From what I can tell Italy's population is well distributed although the north is on top in population and voter turn out.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 27, 2022, 10:27:48 PM
How strong are the rural -> rightwards and urban -> leftwards trends? This seems to be a decent predictor looking at the maps for a moment.  From what I can tell Italy's population is well distributed although the north is on top in population and voter turn out.

That has been the very broad trend in Italy for the past decade or so (although "rural" is really a misnomer here - Italy has very few genuinely rural areas left), but these last results have been a bit messy in this regard, mostly because A/IV did shockingly well in the kind of large well-off cosmopolitan urban centers PD had been gaining ground in. And conversely, M5S doing so well across the poorest parts of the country shows that the right-wing vote isn't exactly working-class. At the end of the day, Italy continues to be very much its own Thing.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 27, 2022, 11:22:14 PM
Oh also, we actually have the final(?) party seat breakdowns, so let's have a look at those. Using seat shares rather than raw seats to compare with 2018 for obvious reasons.

House:

FdI: 119 (29.8%, +24.7)
Lega: 66 (16.5%, -3.3)
FI: 45 (11.3%, -5.3)
NM: 7 (1.8%, +1.1)
Right: 237 (59.3%, +17.2)

PD: 69 (17.3%, -0.5)
AVS: 12 (3%, +0.8)
Others: 4 (1%, =)
Left: 85 (21.3%, +0.3)

M5S: 52 (13%, -23)

A/IV: 21 (5.3%)

Others: 5 (1.3%, +0.3)


Senate:

FdI: 65 (32.5%, +26.8)
Lega: 30 (15%, -3.4)
FI: 18 (9%, -9.1)
NM: 2 (1%, -0.3)
Right: 115 (57.5%, +14)

PD: 40 (20%, +3.2)
AVS: 4 (2%, +0.7)
Left: 44 (22%, +3)

M5S: 28 (14%, -21.6)

A/IV: 9 (4.5%)

Others: 4 (2%, +0.1)


Lega really lucked out with the distribution of FPP seats, and will end up with almost twice its PV share's worth of MPs. I guess that might put Salvini in a stronger bargaining position, but we'll see how much that actually gets him. FdI meanwhile is actually not that overrepresented, again because the FPP seats were allotted on a basis of very different numbers (did I mention how much this electoral system sucks?). PD ends up with a fairly solid caucus, especially in the Senate (those House marginals still sting huh). M5S took a beating, as expected, but in the end it has a comparable share of the parliament as in 2013, which is pretty remarkable in these circumstances. A/IV will, unfortunately, also have its voice.

The left and M5S together have enough seats to force a referendum on any constitutional reform (an important guarantee given that A/IV by contrast has shown some willingness to work with the right on these matters). Also, FdI and Lega on their own will only hold 46.3% of seats in the House and 47.5% in the Senate, so good ol' Silvio will have his voice heard. We'll see if he'll occasionally be the voice of reason, or if he's happy to give Meloni a blank check as long as she gives him some perks.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Aurelius on September 28, 2022, 12:06:39 AM
I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution).

Right. This is the part I struggle with... just... what? It seems completely nonsensical?

"New regulations for the elections of the doge [of Venice] introduced in 1268 remained in force until the end of the republic in 1797. Their intention was to minimize the influence of individual great families, and this was effected by a complex electoral machinery. Thirty members of the Great Council, chosen by lot, were reduced by lot to nine; the nine chose forty and the forty were reduced by lot to twelve, who chose twenty-five. The twenty-five were reduced by lot to nine, and the nine elected forty-five. These forty-five were once more reduced by lot to eleven, and the eleven finally chose the forty-one who elected the doge."


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 28, 2022, 12:16:14 AM
Man between mass-cleansing Mateo and home volcano Berlusconi this new government is going to be great.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: jaichind on September 28, 2022, 08:48:01 AM
I assume this is the lower house
()


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 28, 2022, 08:55:39 AM

Great maps, thank you!

Sardinia is funny but I guess it tracks with the left already posting enormous gains there in 2019 compared to 2018. About Tuscany, you can see it had the smallest decrease for M5S outside the South, and that's probably part of what caused the left to tank (you can see the opposite effect in Liguria, where the left's loss was half the average and the M5S's loss was more than twice the average). Basilicata really stands out, and the reason for that is it has an anomalously high A/IV vote - weird and wonderful Di Maio/Calenzi swing voters...

I will likely do a swing map from 2018 soon (and then at some point in the indefinite future swing maps at a more detailed level, but that will take much more time).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 28, 2022, 09:18:00 AM
The left and M5S together have enough seats to force a referendum on any constitutional reform (an important guarantee given that A/IV by contrast has shown some willingness to work with the right on these matters). Also, FdI and Lega on their own will only hold 46.3% of seats in the House and 47.5% in the Senate, so good ol' Silvio will have his voice heard. We'll see if he'll occasionally be the voice of reason, or if he's happy to give Meloni a blank check as long as she gives him some perks.

I am not sure A/IV is going to accede to Constitutional reform proposals from the Right in general, although they are even more explicitly in favour of switching from a parliamentary system, but still that's significant. And yes, I am sure Silvio will be the voice of reason... of "reasonable" immunity laws and "reasonable" non-coordinated side talks with Putin.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 28, 2022, 10:01:50 AM
()

()

()

Insert comment on #Trends and the converging of western politics via globalization, yada yada yada...


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Person Man on September 28, 2022, 10:15:35 AM


Looks like she just lost a lot of her American online fans

The rest of us are taking what we can to put Putin's army in the ground.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Mike88 on September 28, 2022, 10:17:12 AM
Alleged Meloni-Draghi pact: la Repubblica newspaper reports of a deal between Draghi and Meloni regarding the next government, but the PM's office denies any deal.


Quote
Kiev and public accounts, Draghi’s contacts with the EU: "Meloni will stay at the pacts" [by Tommaso Ciriaco]

Quote
The premier acts as guarantor with Brussels, Paris and Berlin. The three conditions: support for Ukraine, loyalty to NATO and not to blow up the debt. Palazzo Chigi denies

ROME - A compromise to gain accreditation with Europe. A somersault to survive warlike slogans impossible to respect. A few hours after the end of the electoral campaign, Giorgia Meloni shelve the political caresses in Orbán and the promise to "break the back" of the Franco-German axis. And she relies on Mario Draghi. At its "umbrella" with the continental Chancelleries. According to diplomatic sources in Paris, Berlin and Brussels, the president of the Council in office contacted Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz and Ursula von der Leyen. Guaranteeing for the leader of the Brothers of Italy. And reassuring the big names of the Union on the three pillars that will guide the action of the future government.

These are three conditions that the former banker previously submitted to the leader of the Brothers of Italy. And that Meloni has undertaken to accept. First: the new government will continue to support the commitment - including military - for Ukraine and to keep the sanctions against Moscow united. Second: the stable and indisputable anchorage to NATO, without hesitation or unmarking. Third: it will not approve new budget shifts, in order to keep public debt under control.
(...)
THE DISMISSAL OF PALAZZO CHIGI

In the late morning, the denial of Palazzo Chigi "The Prime Minister has not made any agreement or made any commitment to guarantee anything. The President of the Council maintains regular contact with international interlocutors to discuss the main dossiers on the agenda and remains committed to allowing an orderly transition, in the context of correct institutional relations ".


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Senator Incitatus on September 28, 2022, 10:55:51 AM
The chart above has given me pause re: how "educational trends" may simply be downstream from age cohorts and the expanded access to/incentive for education among younger voters. Certainly there is some class aspect to educational background, but it can be overstated in a place like Italy (where education has lagged most globalized nations).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Andrea on September 28, 2022, 11:27:34 AM
Bossi is re-elected

In a news surprising few people, it turns out that Interior Ministry allocation of seats from national to multi-member constituencies was, well, not totally correct.
Other seats were wrongly allocated.  I see one Green/Left seat has gone from Piemonte 2 to Campania 1.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: omar04 on September 28, 2022, 12:01:38 PM
How strong are the rural -> rightwards and urban -> leftwards trends? This seems to be a decent predictor looking at the maps for a moment.  From what I can tell Italy's population is well distributed although the north is on top in population and voter turn out.

That has been the very broad trend in Italy for the past decade or so (although "rural" is really a misnomer here - Italy has very few genuinely rural areas left), but these last results have been a bit messy in this regard, mostly because A/IV did shockingly well in the kind of large well-off cosmopolitan urban centers PD had been gaining ground in. And conversely, M5S doing so well across the poorest parts of the country shows that the right-wing vote isn't exactly working-class. At the end of the day, Italy continues to be very much its own Thing.

couldn't M5S be considered "left" economically although they're ideologically a bit untethered? They set up and are trying to keep the national GMI the Brothers Of Italy apparently want to abolish: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizens%27_income_(Italy)

Also: https://twitter.com/ClassicalSocdem/status/1575117278110154752


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 28, 2022, 01:17:25 PM
How strong are the rural -> rightwards and urban -> leftwards trends? This seems to be a decent predictor looking at the maps for a moment.  From what I can tell Italy's population is well distributed although the north is on top in population and voter turn out.

That has been the very broad trend in Italy for the past decade or so (although "rural" is really a misnomer here - Italy has very few genuinely rural areas left), but these last results have been a bit messy in this regard, mostly because A/IV did shockingly well in the kind of large well-off cosmopolitan urban centers PD had been gaining ground in. And conversely, M5S doing so well across the poorest parts of the country shows that the right-wing vote isn't exactly working-class. At the end of the day, Italy continues to be very much its own Thing.

couldn't M5S be considered "left" economically although they're ideologically a bit untethered? They set up and are trying to keep the national GMI the Brothers Of Italy apparently want to abolish: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizens%27_income_(Italy)

Also: https://twitter.com/ClassicalSocdem/status/1575117278110154752


Yes, but no. After years in and supporting government, the parties voter base collapsed. In 2018 it was truly am amorphous anti-political movement for change. After mass defections to the right among those voters who say themselves as 'more right than left' when measured by polls, and a mass exodus via disillusionment, the resulting voter base is refined into something that clearly sees itself within the left. But the party has not fully changed yet to reflect this, because they didn't need to until election results begin to force their hand.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 28, 2022, 03:53:27 PM
The chart above has given me pause re: how "educational trends" may simply be downstream from age cohorts and the expanded access to/incentive for education among younger voters. Certainly there is some class aspect to educational background, but it can be overstated in a place like Italy (where education has lagged most globalized nations).

I would be remiss not to point out that if the elementary/middle school category was broken down the trend would almost certainly be reversed with PD doing better with the former than with the latter (I believe the 2018 exit poll showed this).


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 28, 2022, 03:58:05 PM
The left and M5S together have enough seats to force a referendum on any constitutional reform (an important guarantee given that A/IV by contrast has shown some willingness to work with the right on these matters). Also, FdI and Lega on their own will only hold 46.3% of seats in the House and 47.5% in the Senate, so good ol' Silvio will have his voice heard. We'll see if he'll occasionally be the voice of reason, or if he's happy to give Meloni a blank check as long as she gives him some perks.

I am not sure A/IV is going to accede to Constitutional reform proposals from the Right in general, although they are even more explicitly in favour of switching from a parliamentary system, but still that's significant. And yes, I am sure Silvio will be the voice of reason... of "reasonable" immunity laws and "reasonable" non-coordinated side talks with Putin.

Yeah, I think it's unlikely that A/IV and the right end up agreeing on a constitutional reform (the latter want presidentialism but the former want "muh sindaco d'Italia" - I'll let you choose which is more cursed, but either way they're not exactly mutually compatible). Still, I don't want to underestimate Calenda and especially Renzi's ability to disappoint us.

As for Berlusconi, of course the former is a given. For the latter though? I sort of doubt he cares enough and I don't think Meloni is ready to give in.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: kaoras on September 28, 2022, 05:52:30 PM
Also, didn't Italy never really have a "normal" correlation between vote and income? The Red Regions have always been richer than the South.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 28, 2022, 05:58:35 PM
Also, didn't Italy never really have a "normal" correlation between vote and income? The Red Regions have always been richer than the South.

The north-south divide has been a thing for a long time, so on average a northern party - like PD now - is going to have a wealthier electorate than the southern-based M5S. But within these regions you still have normal income distributions between rich and poor neighborhoods, cities and countryside, workers and professionals, or other common delineators.

But that is the relative side of the equation. Overall, you would expect the Conservative parties that win northern landsides to have a large share of monied voters. In some cases they do, in others, well, you would expect graphs more resembling A-IV.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 29, 2022, 06:48:02 AM
New title for a new political cycle in Italy. This coming Winter will certainly be an interesting time, as they say.

Meanwhile, government negotiations are ongoing and rumors are that Salvini is not going down without a fight. He still wants to be Minister of the Interior (although some media have reported he might accept Agriculture instead? now that would be something). Apparently he even threatened that Lega would only offer outside support to Meloni's government, which suffice to say would be a bad omen for said government's long-term stability. Salvini had to publicly deny the news, of course. We'll see what comes out of this, but it's hard to see what cards Salvini has to play here. If he refuses to support Meloni, his right-wing voters would surely desert him.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 29, 2022, 06:51:00 AM
()


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 29, 2022, 07:15:25 AM
Also, didn't Italy never really have a "normal" correlation between vote and income? The Red Regions have always been richer than the South.

This is a complicated topic which could probably be discussed for ages... but I believe the short version is that our Left found its first base in industrial workers (obviously less common in less industrialized regions - i.e. the South*) and mezzadria tenants (a form of sharecropping which was disproportionately common in the lower Po Valley and the Tuscany-Umbria-Marche central area) and you can see where that leads. That said half a century ago I'm sure you would have found the left-wing parties doing better with blue-collar workers than with white-collar workers let alone managers.

*although this may also expain Veneto since Veneto was kind of an agricultural backwater relative to the rest of the North until about the 1960s.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 29, 2022, 07:16:52 AM

Beautiful (if depressing) map.

I notice that my earlier assessment that the right lucked out with marginals in the House was exaggerated. Of the 11 seats that were decided by less than 2 points, it looks like the right won 5, and the left and M5S won 3 each, which is as fair a distribution as one can imagine. The right did win a disproportionate amount of seats by 2 to 5 points - I count 8 on this map, compared to 2 for the left and 1 Sicilian Indy - but by that point the sheer fact that they won the most seats has to weigh in.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Person Man on September 29, 2022, 07:59:07 AM
What can she realistically accomplish? I mean, its not like her Government is going pass a fetal heartbeat law, Right to Work, Open Carry, the flat tax, bring back executions, their version of AZ SB 1070, the sunsetting of pensions and public health, Private Prisons, and Don't Say Gay, right? But I imagine there could be things going on in Italy that are just as bad if not worse, even if they don't touch most of these areas.

I think you get my point. What are the likely or reasonably possible consequences?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 29, 2022, 08:19:49 AM
I notice that my earlier assessment that the right lucked out with marginals in the House was exaggerated. Of the 11 seats that were decided by less than 2 points, it looks like the right won 5, and the left and M5S won 3 each, which is as fair a distribution as one can imagine. The right did win a disproportionate amount of seats by 2 to 5 points - I count 8 on this map, compared to 2 for the left and 1 Sicilian Indy - but by that point the sheer fact that they won the most seats has to weigh in.

I think it's an impression you can get by looking at the Tuscan results (the product of a very oddly drawn map that functions as a vicious anti-PD+ gerrymander in a bad year) but it doesn't hold elsewhere, yes.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: crals on September 29, 2022, 09:17:43 AM
Salvini has a point. Why doesn't Meloni want him in the government?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: If my soul was made of stone on September 29, 2022, 09:56:25 AM



Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 29, 2022, 10:56:16 AM
I notice that my earlier assessment that the right lucked out with marginals in the House was exaggerated. Of the 11 seats that were decided by less than 2 points, it looks like the right won 5, and the left and M5S won 3 each, which is as fair a distribution as one can imagine. The right did win a disproportionate amount of seats by 2 to 5 points - I count 8 on this map, compared to 2 for the left and 1 Sicilian Indy - but by that point the sheer fact that they won the most seats has to weigh in.

I think it's an impression you can get by looking at the Tuscan results (the product of a very oddly drawn map that functions as a vicious anti-PD+ gerrymander in a bad year) but it doesn't hold elsewhere, yes.

They should have trolled both livornesi and pisani by putting the two cities in the same constituency (which would then be safe for PD+ even in terrible years) imo.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 29, 2022, 11:04:11 AM
Salvini has a point. Why doesn't Meloni want him in the government?

He is a massive political liability. His stay at the interior ministry is remembered with horror by the ministry's civil service and he still has ongoing lawsuits about his actions there. He is for all intents and purposes bought and paid for by Russia (I still can't f**king believe Lega got away with publicly, overtly signing a "friendship agreement" with United Russia) at a time when Meloni is trying to reassure about Italy's commitment to NATO. He is also, generally speaking, a loudmouthed buffoon whose constant antics are a source of embarrassment for himself and his allies. Lega's pathetic results clearly show that Italians are tired of his nonsense, and while he will need to get something to remain on board, Meloni has a strong interest in sidelining him as much as possible.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Sebastiansg7 on September 29, 2022, 11:11:07 AM
Well, besides the historical reasons for the particular strength of the Italian Left in Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna, I am not surprised at all by the fact that the traditional left is actually stronger in two of the wealthiest regions of the country than in for example, Calabria, or Sicily.

The traditional left-wing parties like Partito Democratico, The Labour Party in the UK, or the German Social Democratic Party have slowly become the parties of the highly educated, and they have been losing their traditional working class support at the same time. The working class has either become unintrested in politics, or has turned to the populist/nationalist right.



Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Sebastiansg7 on September 29, 2022, 11:12:12 AM
Does anyone have a link where I am able to see the electoral results by commune? I haven't been able to find it.



Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 29, 2022, 11:22:03 AM
Does anyone have a link where I am able to see the electoral results by commune? I haven't been able to find it.

You can find them on the Interior Ministry's website (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI) but you'll have to do some browsing, first going through the countless byzantine layers of nested constituencies, and finally once you get to FPP seats you can select an individual comune to look at.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: If my soul was made of stone on September 29, 2022, 11:25:05 AM
The traditional left-wing parties like Partito Democratico

()


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Sebastiansg7 on September 29, 2022, 11:27:17 AM

Well, perhaps they are not traditional left per se because they are not an ancient party, but they are mainstream left: social-democratic, middle-of-the road in many issues, in tune with cultural issues that are of the interest of the highly educated more than they are of the interest of the working class, etc


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: If my soul was made of stone on September 29, 2022, 11:34:51 AM

Well, perhaps they are not traditional left per se because they are not an ancient party, but they are mainstream left: social-democratic, middle-of-the road in many issues, in tune with cultural issues that are of the interest of the highly educated more than they are of the interest of the working class, etc

thatsthejoke.png


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 29, 2022, 12:28:44 PM

The traditional left-wing party is Forza Italia because it is the heir to the Italian Socialist Party of course. jao


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: If my soul was made of stone on September 29, 2022, 12:34:31 PM

The traditional left-wing party is Forza Italia because it is the heir to the Italian Socialist Party of course. jao

And Forza Italia is boldly resisting bourgeois postmaterialism* and #trendz as evidenced by its continued strength in Calabria and Sicily!

*caring about women


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: rob in cal on September 29, 2022, 01:27:15 PM
  Any thoughts on what the results for the FPP seats would have been with a runoff provision where the top two advance?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 29, 2022, 01:40:10 PM
  Any thoughts on what the results for the FPP seats would have been with a runoff provision where the top two advance?

Going back to these maps:

So I guess just to make myself cry, I made this:

()

Map shows the seats where different alliance patterns could have prevailed over the right (of course that's somewhat theoretical, as not all of those votes would have stuck together in such a scenario):

Won by the Left: 12 (H), 7 (S)
Won by M5S: 10 (H), 5 (S)
Won by others: 4 (H), 3 (S)
Left+Calenda OR Left+M5S beats the Right: 13 (H), 4 (S)
Left+M5S beats the Right: 37 (H), 24 (S)
Left+M5S+Calenda+SVP beats the Right: 18 (H), 9 (S)
Right wins regardless: 53 (H), 22 (S)

So even a simple alliance with Calenda's clique, something that was actually on the verge of happening, would have taken the right a full 13 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate (confirming my intuition that the Right won a lot more marginals in the House than in the Senate). That alone would reduce their majorities to 224 and 111 respectively, which would put it in line with previous right-wing majorities. If the Left had somehow managed an alliance with M5S, meanwhile, they could actually have forced another hung parliament, with only 187 and 87 seats left for the Right. And an (obviously fantastical) "all against the Right" coalition would theoretically have clinched a pretty decisive majority.

Of course only the first scenario is even remotely realistic, but I guess we'll have to see what that means for Italy's future. Most pressingly, what this shows is that there is a real, strong potential for left-populist majorities in Southern Italy which could form the basis for an alternative to the current wave of right-wing populism. Whether M5S and PD can work together to make this potential a reality remains to be seen.

The pink seats would almost certainly flip to the left. There's such an abundance of potential transfer votes there that even if the transfers are very poor they should be enough to put the left over the top. The orange seats are the big question marks. My guess is that PD transfers to M5S would probably be better than the other way around (that's been the patterns in runoff elections with M5S before), so you might expect quite a few of the Southern ones to flip. The light blue ones would probably stay to the right barring the occasional upset.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: rob in cal on September 29, 2022, 01:48:35 PM
   Would most A-IV voters have gone to the left in a runoff scenario?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Person Man on September 29, 2022, 02:16:38 PM
What can she realistically accomplish? I mean, its not like her Government is going pass a fetal heartbeat law, Right to Work, Open Carry, the flat tax, bring back executions, their version of AZ SB 1070, the sunsetting of pensions and public health, Private Prisons, and Don't Say Gay, right? But I imagine there could be things going on in Italy that are just as bad if not worse, even if they don't touch most of these areas.

I think you get my point. What are the likely or reasonably possible consequences?

Again. Humor me as the ignorant but curious person here but what will this likely mean? What’s on the table? Do we have enough information to determine what they are going do?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on September 29, 2022, 02:34:29 PM
When does Meloni take over? I remember it took like three months to decide on Conte after 2018 but with such as big win it might be different?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Alcibiades on September 29, 2022, 06:06:47 PM
Also, didn't Italy never really have a "normal" correlation between vote and income? The Red Regions have always been richer than the South.

To add to what Battista said: the Red Regions originally emerged as left-wing strongholds in the early 20th century because they had a very particular agricultural system which engendered violent class conflict between rural labourers and landowners. The flip side of this was that in the immediate post-WWI years, Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna were also the strongholds of Fascist popular support, where it found a natural base among the middle classes terrified by this working class radicalism.

My understanding, though, is that after WWII the nature of left-wing support in the Red Regions underwent quite a dramatic change from the above situation, and the PCI (which had of course supplanted the PSI as the dominant force on the left) became something of a cross-class phenomenon there, a deeply-engrained cultural institution. I’m not fully sure of the reasons for this, but I think it had something to do with these regions being the centre of anti-Fascist Resistance activity during the war. It probably also helped that the PCI was quite distinctive amongst left-wing parties in being founded as much on a core of intellectuals as the mass support of the organised working classes. That said, I think you would still have had much more relatively normal class-based electoral patterns during the First Republic in, for instance, the industrialised North.

Finally, I don’t think it makes sense to think of the South as being the kind of region which would be a natural base for the left in most other countries simply because it is poor. As Battista said, it is the least industrialised part of the country, and it also, for want of a better word, has always lacked ‘political consciousness’, which is certainly a consequence of its poverty, as well as historical and cultural circumstances. Its politics have tended to be based on clientelism and the like rather than the kind of ideological ‘mass politics’ in which socialist, social democratic, and communist parties traditionally tended to thrive.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 29, 2022, 11:43:19 PM
Again. Humor me as the ignorant but curious person here but what will this likely mean? What’s on the table? Do we have enough information to determine what they are going do?

We don't, no. We can safely assume she'll do some pretty heinous stuff, but speculating on what exactly is a fool's errand. Meloni is very right-wing, but she's also shown a lot of pragmatism and seems to be going out of her way to reassure the EU, so in terms of social policy she will probably choose her battlefields carefully.

Also, most of the stuff you cited are very America-specific issues that aren't even discussed in Italy at all. The Italian right bears some similarity with the US right, but not nearly that much.


When does Meloni take over? I remember it took like three months to decide on Conte after 2018 but with such as big win it might be different?

It shouldn't take nearly as long, unless the rift with Salvini gets a lot worse than it looks right now. The right-wing parties have already agreed to govern together long before the elections, so all that's left to do now is hash out the details of who gets what. By contrast, M5S and Lega were starting from scratch in 2018 and needed time to feel each other out on pretty much everything.

One symbolic but important thing to consider is that we're coming up on the 100-year anniversary of the March on Rome, on October 28. Meloni will probably want to be all set up at least a week before that, so as to avoid any unfortunate parallels.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 30, 2022, 10:32:16 AM
()

From Tuscany and points south these patterns are rather familiar, with the exception of the disappearance of a few old strongholds in parts of the South (c.f. Naples city, Messina and parts of Calabria). But in the North... although the area of greatest strength (the South West of Veneto) always saw relatively good results for the old AN in the 1990s, this is very much a new electoral world and a quite remarkable one. Many rural districts where the old AN polled its worst percentages in all of Italy saw extremely strong FdI results this time around. There are breakthroughs and then there's, well, that.

()

Similar to last time, but there are some interesting differences and they are consistently in the direction of a less weird map by historical standards.

()

Vastly reduced in scale, yet the same dominant geographical theme still appears. But look a little closer: in much of the country this is clearly a much more 'left-wing' geography than seen before.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on September 30, 2022, 10:57:23 AM
Snip

From Tuscany and points south these patterns are rather familiar, with the exception of the disappearance of a few old strongholds in parts of the South (c.f. Naples city, Messina and parts of Calabria). But in the North... although the area of greatest strength (the South West of Veneto) always saw relatively good results for the old AN in the 1990s, this is very much a new electoral world and a quite remarkable one. Many rural districts where the old AN polled its worst percentages in all of Italy saw extremely strong FdI results this time around. There are breakthroughs and then there's, well, that.

Snip

Similar to last time, but there are some interesting differences and they are consistently in the direction of a less weird map by historical standards.

Snip

Vastly reduced in scale, yet the same dominant geographical theme still appears. But look a little closer: in much of the country this is clearly a much more 'left-wing' geography than seen before.
Well, that's the funny thing, isn't it - if anything this election has seen a mild reversal of MUH TRENDZ (tho, of course, buried under a right-wing landslide), but observers seem to be falling over themselves to proclaim the exact opposite...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: If my soul was made of stone on September 30, 2022, 11:04:29 AM
Well, that's the funny thing, isn't it - if anything this election has seen a mild reversal of MUH TRENDZ (tho, of course, buried under a right-wing landslide), but observers seem to be falling over themselves to proclaim the exact opposite...

i do wonder where guardian correspondents saw all the low-level milanese bureaucrats twirling their mustaches on the way to vote fdi and loudly cackling all dan backslide like "I SHALL PLUNGE EUROPE INTO A CENTURY OF DARKNESS CHAFING AGAINST THE YOKE OF HATEFUL, TYRANNICAL POPULISM! HA! HA!"


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 30, 2022, 11:25:42 AM
Also, didn't Italy never really have a "normal" correlation between vote and income? The Red Regions have always been richer than the South.

To add to what Battista said: the Red Regions originally emerged as left-wing strongholds in the early 20th century because they had a very particular agricultural system which engendered violent class conflict between rural labourers and landowners. The flip side of this was that in the immediate post-WWI years, Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna were also the strongholds of Fascist popular support, where it found a natural base among the middle classes terrified by this working class radicalism.

My understanding, though, is that after WWII the nature of left-wing support in the Red Regions underwent quite a dramatic change from the above situation, and the PCI (which had of course supplanted the PSI as the dominant force on the left) became something of a cross-class phenomenon there, a deeply-engrained cultural institution. I’m not fully sure of the reasons for this, but I think it had something to do with these regions being the centre of anti-Fascist Resistance activity during the war. It probably also helped that the PCI was quite distinctive amongst left-wing parties in being founded as much on a core of intellectuals as the mass support of the organised working classes. That said, I think you would still have had much more relatively normal class-based electoral patterns during the First Republic in, for instance, the industrialised North.

Finally, I don’t think it makes sense to think of the South as being the kind of region which would be a natural base for the left in most other countries simply because it is poor. As Battista said, it is the least industrialised part of the country, and it also, for want of a better word, has always lacked ‘political consciousness’, which is certainly a consequence of its poverty, as well as historical and cultural circumstances. Its politics have tended to be based on clientelism and the like rather than the kind of ideological ‘mass politics’ in which socialist, social democratic, and communist parties traditionally tended to thrive.

I suppose the counterpoint is spain, where Andalusia and Extremadura were historical strongholds of the PSOE owing exactly to the sort of economic quasi feudal set up in the south?


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Alcibiades on September 30, 2022, 11:31:24 AM
Also, didn't Italy never really have a "normal" correlation between vote and income? The Red Regions have always been richer than the South.

To add to what Battista said: the Red Regions originally emerged as left-wing strongholds in the early 20th century because they had a very particular agricultural system which engendered violent class conflict between rural labourers and landowners. The flip side of this was that in the immediate post-WWI years, Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna were also the strongholds of Fascist popular support, where it found a natural base among the middle classes terrified by this working class radicalism.

My understanding, though, is that after WWII the nature of left-wing support in the Red Regions underwent quite a dramatic change from the above situation, and the PCI (which had of course supplanted the PSI as the dominant force on the left) became something of a cross-class phenomenon there, a deeply-engrained cultural institution. I’m not fully sure of the reasons for this, but I think it had something to do with these regions being the centre of anti-Fascist Resistance activity during the war. It probably also helped that the PCI was quite distinctive amongst left-wing parties in being founded as much on a core of intellectuals as the mass support of the organised working classes. That said, I think you would still have had much more relatively normal class-based electoral patterns during the First Republic in, for instance, the industrialised North.

Finally, I don’t think it makes sense to think of the South as being the kind of region which would be a natural base for the left in most other countries simply because it is poor. As Battista said, it is the least industrialised part of the country, and it also, for want of a better word, has always lacked ‘political consciousness’, which is certainly a consequence of its poverty, as well as historical and cultural circumstances. Its politics have tended to be based on clientelism and the like rather than the kind of ideological ‘mass politics’ in which socialist, social democratic, and communist parties traditionally tended to thrive.

I suppose the counterpoint is spain, where Andalusia and Extremadura were historical strongholds of the PSOE owing exactly to the sort of economic quasi feudal set up in the south?

Exactly. I've actually seen this comparison between central Italy and Andalucia made quite a bit in the academic literature.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Alcibiades on September 30, 2022, 11:39:47 AM
Snip

From Tuscany and points south these patterns are rather familiar, with the exception of the disappearance of a few old strongholds in parts of the South (c.f. Naples city, Messina and parts of Calabria). But in the North... although the area of greatest strength (the South West of Veneto) always saw relatively good results for the old AN in the 1990s, this is very much a new electoral world and a quite remarkable one. Many rural districts where the old AN polled its worst percentages in all of Italy saw extremely strong FdI results this time around. There are breakthroughs and then there's, well, that.

Snip

Similar to last time, but there are some interesting differences and they are consistently in the direction of a less weird map by historical standards.

Snip

Vastly reduced in scale, yet the same dominant geographical theme still appears. But look a little closer: in much of the country this is clearly a much more 'left-wing' geography than seen before.
Well, that's the funny thing, isn't it - if anything this election has seen a mild reversal of MUH TRENDZ (tho, of course, buried under a right-wing landslide), but observers seem to be falling over themselves to proclaim the exact opposite...

I think this sort of true and also sort of not true. When looking at PD exclusively, their coalition, as Al said, looks a little less weird than last time, but this is largely because they lost some of their wealthiest supporters to the Third Pole, and re-gained some more working-class ones in certain regions (notably Liguria) from M5S. That is to say, none of this has really affected the demographic composition of the Right's support, which looks as non-traditional and #trendz-based as ever. The CDX once again absolutely tanked in wealthy urban areas.

As a side note, one of the more significant shifts from 2018 as indicated by exit polling was the 18-24 age bracket swinging towards the CSX. This is I suppose a small silver lining, and a welcome counterpoint to the narrative of FASCIST ZOOMERS we've seen recently in the likes of France and Sweden.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 30, 2022, 12:23:15 PM
Also, didn't Italy never really have a "normal" correlation between vote and income? The Red Regions have always been richer than the South.

To add to what Battista said: the Red Regions originally emerged as left-wing strongholds in the early 20th century because they had a very particular agricultural system which engendered violent class conflict between rural labourers and landowners. The flip side of this was that in the immediate post-WWI years, Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna were also the strongholds of Fascist popular support, where it found a natural base among the middle classes terrified by this working class radicalism.

My understanding, though, is that after WWII the nature of left-wing support in the Red Regions underwent quite a dramatic change from the above situation, and the PCI (which had of course supplanted the PSI as the dominant force on the left) became something of a cross-class phenomenon there, a deeply-engrained cultural institution. I’m not fully sure of the reasons for this, but I think it had something to do with these regions being the centre of anti-Fascist Resistance activity during the war. It probably also helped that the PCI was quite distinctive amongst left-wing parties in being founded as much on a core of intellectuals as the mass support of the organised working classes. That said, I think you would still have had much more relatively normal class-based electoral patterns during the First Republic in, for instance, the industrialised North.

Finally, I don’t think it makes sense to think of the South as being the kind of region which would be a natural base for the left in most other countries simply because it is poor. As Battista said, it is the least industrialised part of the country, and it also, for want of a better word, has always lacked ‘political consciousness’, which is certainly a consequence of its poverty, as well as historical and cultural circumstances. Its politics have tended to be based on clientelism and the like rather than the kind of ideological ‘mass politics’ in which socialist, social democratic, and communist parties traditionally tended to thrive.

Great post! This reminded me to share something topical and funny about my background. One of my great-grandmothers was a mezzadra until she effectively retired, and her husband - besides helping her with field work - was a railwayman. They lived, like most if not all of that side of my family, in a village next to here which was turbo-Communist even by the standards of this already pretty Red area. And... as far as I know when they voted it was for the DC.

Then again, apparently two of my other great-grandfathers voted PSDI at least for some time, so I guess I really come from a family of outliers.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Oppo on September 30, 2022, 12:51:14 PM


Let’s goooooo….


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 30, 2022, 12:56:58 PM
Well, that's the funny thing, isn't it - if anything this election has seen a mild reversal of MUH TRENDZ (tho, of course, buried under a right-wing landslide), but observers seem to be falling over themselves to proclaim the exact opposite...

This is because so-called "pundits" have the memory of goldfish and have already forgotten that Renzi's PD last time managed some amazing feats like doing better in Parioli than Testaccio (crying) or being above average in the Bergamo province (wtf), just like they forgot everything about the pre-2018 M5S vote, just like they forgot that Alleanza Nazionale existed, just like they forgot that Berlusconi won a lot of Northern working class areas in 1994, and so on and so on...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on September 30, 2022, 01:01:55 PM
Well, that's the funny thing, isn't it - if anything this election has seen a mild reversal of MUH TRENDZ (tho, of course, buried under a right-wing landslide), but observers seem to be falling over themselves to proclaim the exact opposite...

This is because so-called "pundits" have the memory of goldfish and have already forgotten that Renzi's PD last time managed some amazing feats like doing better in Parioli than Testaccio (crying) or being above average in the Bergamo province (wtf), just like they forgot everything about the pre-2018 M5S vote, just like they forgot that Alleanza Nazionale existed, just like they forgot that Berlusconi won a lot of Northern working class areas in 1994, and so on and so on...

Look at this guy in denial that global trends are real! When are you going to join the rest of us in reality?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 30, 2022, 01:09:37 PM
Well, that's the funny thing, isn't it - if anything this election has seen a mild reversal of MUH TRENDZ (tho, of course, buried under a right-wing landslide), but observers seem to be falling over themselves to proclaim the exact opposite...

This is because so-called "pundits" have the memory of goldfish and have already forgotten that Renzi's PD last time managed some amazing feats like doing better in Parioli than Testaccio (crying) or being above average in the Bergamo province (wtf), just like they forgot everything about the pre-2018 M5S vote, just like they forgot that Alleanza Nazionale existed, just like they forgot that Berlusconi won a lot of Northern working class areas in 1994, and so on and so on...

Look at this guy in denial that global trends are real! When are you going to join the rest of us in reality?

When Moncrieff votes Labor of course (paging discovolante et al).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 30, 2022, 01:21:25 PM
That is to say, none of this has really affected the demographic composition of the Right's support, which looks as non-traditional and #trendz-based as ever. The CDX once again absolutely tanked in wealthy urban areas.

Though as the fundamental issue there is a broad 'underperformance' with wealthy pensioners - Italy's lack of a strong 'Tory' tradition has had curious electoral consequences since the financial crisis ended forever Berlusconi's characteristically brash and brazen ability to appeal to the crassest of crass bourgeois self-interest - on closer inspection that one turns out to be rather less about #trendz than it looks at first.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: JimJamUK on September 30, 2022, 01:28:39 PM
I think this sort of true and also sort of not true. When looking at PD exclusively, their coalition, as Al said, looks a little less weird than last time, but this is largely because they lost some of their wealthiest supporters to the Third Pole, and re-gained some more working-class ones in certain regions (notably Liguria) from M5S. That is to say, none of this has really affected the demographic composition of the Right's support, which looks as non-traditional and #trendz-based as ever. The CDX once again absolutely tanked in wealthy urban areas.
Its non-traditional for most Western European countries, but for Italy its not radically different to what has long been the case. I mean, its not like the PD have ever profiled themselves on their commitment to the proletarian cause...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 30, 2022, 02:03:32 PM
That is to say, none of this has really affected the demographic composition of the Right's support, which looks as non-traditional and #trendz-based as ever. The CDX once again absolutely tanked in wealthy urban areas.

To add to Al's point, the one thing that really stands out for Italy to be a "muh trendz" country is the South. If you looked at Al's maps North of Molise, then yeah, you could easily make the case that Italy is basically aligning on the same basic electoral geography as the rest of Europe, with only a few ancestral remnants of the old order here and there. The South completely throws that narrative out the window, though. The right's results are well below average almost everywhere there, even in areas that were historically very right-wing! In relative terms, the right was significantly stronger there back in 2013.

You could wave it off by saying M5S are populists too, sure, but the fact that there are two brands of populism, increasingly at odds with each other (for all that Conte attacks Letta and PD, it's clear that he has no love lost for Salvini or anyone else on the right). This isn't a complication that you find in most European countries, and it will have significant consequences for how political conflict structures itself going forward. Furthermore, M5S' populism is a distinctly left populism - this time more so than ever, as they ran an almost single-issue campaign on preserving the minimum income they established. Given that, the fact that they do so well outside of large urban areas is notable. Even Mélenchon's vote became an overwhelmingly urban one in this past election. So whatever's happening in Italy, muh trendz only goes so far in explaining it.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 30, 2022, 02:05:29 PM
That is to say, none of this has really affected the demographic composition of the Right's support, which looks as non-traditional and #trendz-based as ever. The CDX once again absolutely tanked in wealthy urban areas.

To add to Al's point, the one thing that really stands out for Italy to be a "muh trendz" country is the South. If you looked at Al's maps North of Molise, then yeah, you could easily make the case that Italy is basically aligning on the same basic electoral geography as the rest of Europe, with only a few ancestral remnants of the old order here and there. The South completely throws that narrative out the window, though. The right's results are well below average almost everywhere there, even in areas that were historically very right-wing! In relative terms, the right was significantly stronger there back in 2013.

You could wave it off by saying M5S are populists too, sure, but the fact that there are two brands of populism, increasingly at odds with each other (for all that Conte attacks Letta and PD, it's clear that he has no love lost for Salvini or anyone else on the right). This isn't a complication that you find in most European countries, and it will have significant consequences for how political conflict structures itself going forward. Furthermore, M5S' populism is a distinctly left populism - this time more so than ever, as they ran an almost single-issue campaign on preserving the minimum income they established. Given that, the fact that they do so well outside of large urban areas is notable. Even Mélenchon's vote became an overwhelmingly urban one in this past election. So whatever's happening in Italy, muh trendz only goes so far in explaining it.

M5S is the least leftist party in Italy, if we assess these things cladistically, which we shouldn't. Jao


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 30, 2022, 02:23:59 PM
To add to Al's point, the one thing that really stands out for Italy to be a "muh trendz" country is the South. If you looked at Al's maps North of Molise, then yeah, you could easily make the case that Italy is basically aligning on the same basic electoral geography as the rest of Europe, with only a few ancestral remnants of the old order here and there.

Though Italian social geography is so different to what is normal north of the Alps, that even this is a false friend. All of this is one reason why Italian elections - even when deeply depressing horror shows like this one - are so endlessly fascinating: what you see at first is not what that's actually there.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 30, 2022, 02:27:57 PM
That is to say, none of this has really affected the demographic composition of the Right's support, which looks as non-traditional and #trendz-based as ever. The CDX once again absolutely tanked in wealthy urban areas.

To add to Al's point, the one thing that really stands out for Italy to be a "muh trendz" country is the South. If you looked at Al's maps North of Molise, then yeah, you could easily make the case that Italy is basically aligning on the same basic electoral geography as the rest of Europe, with only a few ancestral remnants of the old order here and there. The South completely throws that narrative out the window, though. The right's results are well below average almost everywhere there, even in areas that were historically very right-wing! In relative terms, the right was significantly stronger there back in 2013.

You could wave it off by saying M5S are populists too, sure, but the fact that there are two brands of populism, increasingly at odds with each other (for all that Conte attacks Letta and PD, it's clear that he has no love lost for Salvini or anyone else on the right). This isn't a complication that you find in most European countries, and it will have significant consequences for how political conflict structures itself going forward. Furthermore, M5S' populism is a distinctly left populism - this time more so than ever, as they ran an almost single-issue campaign on preserving the minimum income they established. Given that, the fact that they do so well outside of large urban areas is notable. Even Mélenchon's vote became an overwhelmingly urban one in this past election. So whatever's happening in Italy, muh trendz only goes so far in explaining it.

M5S is the least leftist party in Italy, if we assess these things cladistically, which we shouldn't. Jao

1. You stole my joke and 2. You didn't even explain it for laymen. I am very disappointed in you Nathan. Jao


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Person Man on September 30, 2022, 02:31:53 PM
Again. Humor me as the ignorant but curious person here but what will this likely mean? What’s on the table? Do we have enough information to determine what they are going do?

We don't, no. We can safely assume she'll do some pretty heinous stuff, but speculating on what exactly is a fool's errand. Meloni is very right-wing, but she's also shown a lot of pragmatism and seems to be going out of her way to reassure the EU, so in terms of social policy she will probably choose her battlefields carefully.

Also, most of the stuff you cited are very America-specific issues that aren't even discussed in Italy at all. The Italian right bears some similarity with the US right, but not nearly that much.


When does Meloni take over? I remember it took like three months to decide on Conte after 2018 but with such as big win it might be different?

It shouldn't take nearly as long, unless the rift with Salvini gets a lot worse than it looks right now. The right-wing parties have already agreed to govern together long before the elections, so all that's left to do now is hash out the details of who gets what. By contrast, M5S and Lega were starting from scratch in 2018 and needed time to feel each other out on pretty much everything.

One symbolic but important thing to consider is that we're coming up on the 100-year anniversary of the March on Rome, on October 28. Meloni will probably want to be all set up at least a week before that, so as to avoid any unfortunate parallels.

Thanks for humoring me. Looks like there is going to be some "exciting events" out of Italy, if you use jaichiand's parlance.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Andrea on September 30, 2022, 03:32:11 PM
When does Meloni take over? I remember it took like three months to decide on Conte after 2018 but with such as big win it might be different?

New Parliament will meet first time on October 13th. They have to elect the presidents of both chambers. Third ballot (usually the next day) will require just absolute majority.
Then when both presidents are elected, Mattarella can start meeting parliamentary groups. Then he will given the assignment to Meloni. Should be pretty fast given the majorities are clear.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Alcibiades on September 30, 2022, 03:54:23 PM
That is to say, none of this has really affected the demographic composition of the Right's support, which looks as non-traditional and #trendz-based as ever. The CDX once again absolutely tanked in wealthy urban areas.

To add to Al's point, the one thing that really stands out for Italy to be a "muh trendz" country is the South. If you looked at Al's maps North of Molise, then yeah, you could easily make the case that Italy is basically aligning on the same basic electoral geography as the rest of Europe, with only a few ancestral remnants of the old order here and there. The South completely throws that narrative out the window, though. The right's results are well below average almost everywhere there, even in areas that were historically very right-wing! In relative terms, the right was significantly stronger there back in 2013.

You could wave it off by saying M5S are populists too, sure, but the fact that there are two brands of populism, increasingly at odds with each other (for all that Conte attacks Letta and PD, it's clear that he has no love lost for Salvini or anyone else on the right). This isn't a complication that you find in most European countries, and it will have significant consequences for how political conflict structures itself going forward. Furthermore, M5S' populism is a distinctly left populism - this time more so than ever, as they ran an almost single-issue campaign on preserving the minimum income they established. Given that, the fact that they do so well outside of large urban areas is notable. Even Mélenchon's vote became an overwhelmingly urban one in this past election. So whatever's happening in Italy, muh trendz only goes so far in explaining it.

Sorry, I think I worded the bit you quoted badly. I do basically agree with everything you and Al said in your replies, and I especially agree that it’s very important to understand that Italy is to a large extent sui generis in its politics as far as European countries are concerned. I suppose to qualify, the “centre-right” in Italy more-or-less doesn’t exist anymore (or rather it’s been amalgamated into the radical right; and you could say it hasn’t existed for a long time seeing as Berlusconi is very much not a traditional moderate conservative politician … and then of course the DC was not a centre-right party in the conventional sense either …), and it’s not like parties as extreme as FdI and Lega do well with the educated upper middle classes anywhere in Europe really (with the possible exception of Spain).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 30, 2022, 04:03:45 PM
That is to say, none of this has really affected the demographic composition of the Right's support, which looks as non-traditional and #trendz-based as ever. The CDX once again absolutely tanked in wealthy urban areas.

To add to Al's point, the one thing that really stands out for Italy to be a "muh trendz" country is the South. If you looked at Al's maps North of Molise, then yeah, you could easily make the case that Italy is basically aligning on the same basic electoral geography as the rest of Europe, with only a few ancestral remnants of the old order here and there. The South completely throws that narrative out the window, though. The right's results are well below average almost everywhere there, even in areas that were historically very right-wing! In relative terms, the right was significantly stronger there back in 2013.

You could wave it off by saying M5S are populists too, sure, but the fact that there are two brands of populism, increasingly at odds with each other (for all that Conte attacks Letta and PD, it's clear that he has no love lost for Salvini or anyone else on the right). This isn't a complication that you find in most European countries, and it will have significant consequences for how political conflict structures itself going forward. Furthermore, M5S' populism is a distinctly left populism - this time more so than ever, as they ran an almost single-issue campaign on preserving the minimum income they established. Given that, the fact that they do so well outside of large urban areas is notable. Even Mélenchon's vote became an overwhelmingly urban one in this past election. So whatever's happening in Italy, muh trendz only goes so far in explaining it.

M5S is the least leftist party in Italy, if we assess these things cladistically, which we shouldn't. Jao

1. You stole my joke and 2. You didn't even explain it for laymen. I am very disappointed in you Nathan. Jao

1. I did. I apologize. Mea maxima culpa.
2. PSI->PCI->current center-left coalition. PSI->PNF->MSI->AN->FdI. FI was founded by Craxiworld people. Lega in its original MUH PADANIA incarnation absorbed a lot of local PSI functionaries in Lombardy and Veneto as well. The THIRD POLE mostly split from either FI (Craxiworld) or the center-left coalition (commies). That leaves M5S and arguably +Eu (but then, radicalism was left-wing in the nineteenth century) as the only non-left forces of significance in Italy. Sinistrisme forever!


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: The Free North on September 30, 2022, 06:14:55 PM
That is to say, none of this has really affected the demographic composition of the Right's support, which looks as non-traditional and #trendz-based as ever. The CDX once again absolutely tanked in wealthy urban areas.

To add to Al's point, the one thing that really stands out for Italy to be a "muh trendz" country is the South. If you looked at Al's maps North of Molise, then yeah, you could easily make the case that Italy is basically aligning on the same basic electoral geography as the rest of Europe, with only a few ancestral remnants of the old order here and there. The South completely throws that narrative out the window, though. The right's results are well below average almost everywhere there, even in areas that were historically very right-wing! In relative terms, the right was significantly stronger there back in 2013.

You could wave it off by saying M5S are populists too, sure, but the fact that there are two brands of populism, increasingly at odds with each other (for all that Conte attacks Letta and PD, it's clear that he has no love lost for Salvini or anyone else on the right). This isn't a complication that you find in most European countries, and it will have significant consequences for how political conflict structures itself going forward. Furthermore, M5S' populism is a distinctly left populism - this time more so than ever, as they ran an almost single-issue campaign on preserving the minimum income they established. Given that, the fact that they do so well outside of large urban areas is notable. Even Mélenchon's vote became an overwhelmingly urban one in this past election. So whatever's happening in Italy, muh trendz only goes so far in explaining it.

Its also worth nothing that the entire south of the country is (mostly) devoid of immigrants. While the arrive in the south, they all move north for work, etc. A huge calling card of the right is cut off at its knees in part due to the South's long history of economic malaise.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Estrella on September 30, 2022, 06:31:47 PM
Oversimplified hot take: all of Italy is going muh trendz, it's just the South is fifty years late as usual. While PSI and PPI were rising in the North, it stuck to the old Liberal machines. While DC and PCI were battling it out nationally, the South was still giving loads of votes to post-pre-1900-liberals and post-fascists. When PSI started breaking into the South, in the North it had already become a throughly #trends-ised middle class party. In the 1990s and 2000s, the South kept voting as if it was 1948 and Berlusconi posters said "Dio te vede, Stalin no." And today, the impoverished, frustrated region is voting the way it would have voted in any normal country in the 1970s, just adjusted for the very 2022 choice of parties.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Skill and Chance on September 30, 2022, 07:08:09 PM
That is to say, none of this has really affected the demographic composition of the Right's support, which looks as non-traditional and #trendz-based as ever. The CDX once again absolutely tanked in wealthy urban areas.

To add to Al's point, the one thing that really stands out for Italy to be a "muh trendz" country is the South. If you looked at Al's maps North of Molise, then yeah, you could easily make the case that Italy is basically aligning on the same basic electoral geography as the rest of Europe, with only a few ancestral remnants of the old order here and there. The South completely throws that narrative out the window, though. The right's results are well below average almost everywhere there, even in areas that were historically very right-wing! In relative terms, the right was significantly stronger there back in 2013.

Well, the big complication in Italy is M5S and whether it should really be considered Left or Other.  Imagine the US had the Andrew Yang UBI Party randomly winning a bunch of House and Senate seats in Appalachia while in the rest of the country, wealthy suburbs still swung to Biden and working class areas swung to Trump.  It seems more likely to me that M5S prevented an FdI landslide than prevented the left coalition from winning narrowly. 


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 30, 2022, 07:55:08 PM
Oversimplified hot take: all of Italy is going muh trendz, it's just the South is fifty years late as usual. While PSI and PPI were rising in the North, it stuck to the old Liberal machines. While DC and PCI were battling it out nationally, the South was still giving loads of votes to post-pre-1900-liberals and post-fascists. When PSI started breaking into the South, in the North it had already become a throughly #trends-ised middle class party. In the 1990s and 2000s, the South kept voting as if it was 1948 and Berlusconi posters said "Dio te vede, Stalin no." And today, the impoverished, frustrated region is voting the way it would have voted in any normal country in the 1970s, just adjusted for the very 2022 choice of parties.

I know you said oversimplified, but I just want to point out for clarity that the PLI vote in the South entirely collapsed in the 1950s - with a couple of seemingly random exceptions of course - and that the PSI definitely retained much of its working class base as well during Craxismo (this may, uh, turn interesting in 1994).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Skill and Chance on September 30, 2022, 11:19:13 PM
Again. Humor me as the ignorant but curious person here but what will this likely mean? What’s on the table? Do we have enough information to determine what they are going do?

We don't, no. We can safely assume she'll do some pretty heinous stuff, but speculating on what exactly is a fool's errand. Meloni is very right-wing, but she's also shown a lot of pragmatism and seems to be going out of her way to reassure the EU, so in terms of social policy she will probably choose her battlefields carefully.

Also, most of the stuff you cited are very America-specific issues that aren't even discussed in Italy at all. The Italian right bears some similarity with the US right, but not nearly that much.


When does Meloni take over? I remember it took like three months to decide on Conte after 2018 but with such as big win it might be different?

It shouldn't take nearly as long, unless the rift with Salvini gets a lot worse than it looks right now. The right-wing parties have already agreed to govern together long before the elections, so all that's left to do now is hash out the details of who gets what. By contrast, M5S and Lega were starting from scratch in 2018 and needed time to feel each other out on pretty much everything.

One symbolic but important thing to consider is that we're coming up on the 100-year anniversary of the March on Rome, on October 28. Meloni will probably want to be all set up at least a week before that, so as to avoid any unfortunate parallels.

Thanks for humoring me. Looks like there is going to be some "exciting events" out of Italy, if you use jaichiand's parlance.

Well, we know she questions gay adoption rights and that a regional government her party won control over in 2020 imposed a 7 week limit on abortion.  Something resembling the DeSantis/Youngkin LGBT educational policies also seems pretty likely to happen.  They also want pretty serious immigration restrictions and appear to oppose laws designed to give any special workplace protections to women. 

On the other hand, her party appears to be more moderate than I would have expected on climate change, i.e. they believe there is a meaningful role for government to play in containing it and fighting pollution in general.  Maybe this is just an American bias, though, because a national right wing leader saying the government should be involved in regulating CO2 at all would be unusual here.  I think the Western European right pretty commonly agrees to CO2 regulation.  They are apparently big on nuclear as the solution.

While Italy has its own deep traditions, the social conservatism here really does look equivalent to a US Southern state or Republican presidential nominee, which has been really rare in Western Europe in the last couple of generations (indeed, most of Western Europe absolutely freaked out about it in Poland, etc.).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 01, 2022, 02:32:09 AM
That is to say, none of this has really affected the demographic composition of the Right's support, which looks as non-traditional and #trendz-based as ever. The CDX once again absolutely tanked in wealthy urban areas.

To add to Al's point, the one thing that really stands out for Italy to be a "muh trendz" country is the South. If you looked at Al's maps North of Molise, then yeah, you could easily make the case that Italy is basically aligning on the same basic electoral geography as the rest of Europe, with only a few ancestral remnants of the old order here and there. The South completely throws that narrative out the window, though. The right's results are well below average almost everywhere there, even in areas that were historically very right-wing! In relative terms, the right was significantly stronger there back in 2013.

Well, the big complication in Italy is M5S and whether it should really be considered Left or Other.  Imagine the US had the Andrew Yang UBI Party randomly winning a bunch of House and Senate seats in Appalachia while in the rest of the country, wealthy suburbs still swung to Biden and working class areas swung to Trump.  It seems more likely to me that M5S prevented an FdI landslide than prevented the left coalition from winning narrowly. 

Yeah, I don't disagree. My point is not to say that M5S should be considered as part of "the left" as such (arguably, the key to their success was precisely that they came to embody left-wing policies without being seen as part of "the left"). My point is that they're hard to square off with the totalizing "trendz" narrative either way because they're not part of either block. Whatever they may have in common with the left, they have far less in common with the right. So there's not really a coherent political force representing the "losers" of globalization across Italy the way you could at least argue there is in many European countries, and again, that will have implication for how political conflict organizes in the coming years.

Ultimately, almost all political systems (the only exception would be those with an explicitly "consociative" political structure like Switzerland) trend toward some form of bipolarism. There's always a government and an opposition, after all. Italy has been in an awkward tripolar spot since 2013, one that seemed untenable for a long time but somehow hung on. I think finally having a strong government with a coherent ideological agenda is what is needed to finally collapse it back into bipolarism. How that happens remains a huge question, as something will have to give in order to resolve the tensions between PD, M5S and Calenda's clowns. So you could think of many scenarios where it does collapse into a muh trendz type of political divides - but you can also think of plenty where it becomes something completely different. One fact that contributes to that is the fact that the social contradictions between North-Center and South have considerably increased in the past decade, not decreased. Given that, it's not surprising that they've diverged so much politically, and it's hard to see this divide disappear anytime soon.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Death of a Salesman on October 01, 2022, 02:35:31 AM
Again. Humor me as the ignorant but curious person here but what will this likely mean? What’s on the table? Do we have enough information to determine what they are going do?

We don't, no. We can safely assume she'll do some pretty heinous stuff, but speculating on what exactly is a fool's errand. Meloni is very right-wing, but she's also shown a lot of pragmatism and seems to be going out of her way to reassure the EU, so in terms of social policy she will probably choose her battlefields carefully.

Also, most of the stuff you cited are very America-specific issues that aren't even discussed in Italy at all. The Italian right bears some similarity with the US right, but not nearly that much.


When does Meloni take over? I remember it took like three months to decide on Conte after 2018 but with such as big win it might be different?

It shouldn't take nearly as long, unless the rift with Salvini gets a lot worse than it looks right now. The right-wing parties have already agreed to govern together long before the elections, so all that's left to do now is hash out the details of who gets what. By contrast, M5S and Lega were starting from scratch in 2018 and needed time to feel each other out on pretty much everything.

One symbolic but important thing to consider is that we're coming up on the 100-year anniversary of the March on Rome, on October 28. Meloni will probably want to be all set up at least a week before that, so as to avoid any unfortunate parallels.

Thanks for humoring me. Looks like there is going to be some "exciting events" out of Italy, if you use jaichiand's parlance.

Well, we know she questions gay adoption rights and that a regional government her party won control over in 2020 imposed a 7 week limit on abortion.  Something resembling the DeSantis/Youngkin LGBT educational policies also seems pretty likely to happen.  They also want pretty serious immigration restrictions and appear to oppose laws designed to give any special workplace protections to women. 

On the other hand, her party appears to be more moderate than I would have expected on climate change, i.e. they believe there is a meaningful role for government to play in containing it and fighting pollution in general.  Maybe this is just an American bias, though, because a national right wing leader saying the government should be involved in regulating CO2 at all would be unusual here.  I think the Western European right pretty commonly agrees to CO2 regulation.  They are apparently big on nuclear as the solution.

While Italy has its own deep traditions, the social conservatism here really does look equivalent to a US Southern state or Republican presidential nominee, which has been really rare in Western Europe in the last couple of generations (indeed, most of Western Europe absolutely freaked out about it in Poland, etc.).
One of the big differences between Italy and Western Europe is that a large share of Italians are genuinely socially conservative. On questions about abortion, Italians are a bit to the left of Americans, while on questions about homosexuality Italians tend to be to the right, but the general sense of social conservatism is similar between the two countries, and quite distinct from the UK or the Netherlands where active social conservatism is now rather fringe.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Oliver on October 01, 2022, 03:16:48 PM
The document "Camera_riparto_italia_20220925" is quite interesting. Is there a similar document for the Senate?

I’m really trying to understand how the seats are assigned to the multi-member districts? Is there an explanation in English?

How are this compensation seats („compensazione“) and the seats which are finally assigned to the lists calculated?



Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 01, 2022, 04:26:30 PM
Anyway, I don't think the results of the Sicilian regional election were actually reported here so I'll do now: Renato Schifani (CDX) won with 42%, Cateno De Luca (SUD CHIAMA NORD) was second with 24% and then Caterina Chinnici (CSX) with 16% came narrowly ahead of Nunzio Di Paola (M5S) with 15%. Gaetano Armao, the candidate of Calenzi, got a meager 2%.

Compared to the results for the national Parliament, this is a big overperformance for De Luca but surprisingly also a smaller one for the right, while predictably a big underperformance for M5S; the centre-left did almost identically, and A/IV underperformed by a relatively significant amount.

De Luca obviously landslided in the province of Messina, he also narrowly lost Enna while all the other provinces had an ample margin for Schifani. AG was the best province for Schifani, EN the best for Chinnici (very hilarious but common in recent times) and CL the best for Di Paola. A list called "DC - Democrazia Cristiana" got a significant number of votes, possibly over 5%, something which will surprise no one. I should point out there are still quite a few precincts left to report in the province of Siracusa, but they shouldn't affect the final result except by a fraction of a percentage point.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: xelas81 on October 01, 2022, 04:44:17 PM
Anyway, I don't think the results of the Sicilian regional election were actually reported here so I'll do now: Renato Schifani (CDX) won with 42%, Cateno De Luca (SUD CHIAMA NORD) was second with 24% and then Caterina Chinnici (CSX) with 16% came narrowly ahead of Nunzio Di Paola (M5S) with 15%. Gaetano Armao, the candidate of Calenzi, got a meager 2%.

Compared to the results for the national Parliament, this is a big overperformance for De Luca but surprisingly also a smaller one for the right, while predictably a big underperformance for M5S; the centre-left did almost identically, and A/IV underperformed by a relatively significant amount.

De Luca obviously landslided in the province of Messina, he also narrowly lost Enna while all the other provinces had an ample margin for Schifani. AG was the best province for Schifani, EN the best for Chinnici (very hilarious but common in recent times) and CL the best for Di Paola. A list called "DC - Democrazia Cristiana" got a significant number of votes, possibly over 5%, something which will surprise no one. I should point out there are still quite a few precincts left to report in the province of Siracusa, but they shouldn't affect the final result except by a fraction of a percentage point.
Is the regional elections pure PR? If so, the CDX doesn't have a majority by themselves and have to make some sort of agreement with other parties.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 01, 2022, 04:58:13 PM
Anyway, I don't think the results of the Sicilian regional election were actually reported here so I'll do now: Renato Schifani (CDX) won with 42%, Cateno De Luca (SUD CHIAMA NORD) was second with 24% and then Caterina Chinnici (CSX) with 16% came narrowly ahead of Nunzio Di Paola (M5S) with 15%. Gaetano Armao, the candidate of Calenzi, got a meager 2%.

Compared to the results for the national Parliament, this is a big overperformance for De Luca but surprisingly also a smaller one for the right, while predictably a big underperformance for M5S; the centre-left did almost identically, and A/IV underperformed by a relatively significant amount.

De Luca obviously landslided in the province of Messina, he also narrowly lost Enna while all the other provinces had an ample margin for Schifani. AG was the best province for Schifani, EN the best for Chinnici (very hilarious but common in recent times) and CL the best for Di Paola. A list called "DC - Democrazia Cristiana" got a significant number of votes, possibly over 5%, something which will surprise no one. I should point out there are still quite a few precincts left to report in the province of Siracusa, but they shouldn't affect the final result except by a fraction of a percentage point.
Is the regional elections pure PR? If so, the CDX doesn't have a majority by themselves and have to make some sort of agreement with other parties.

Not quite, as always there's a seat prize for the winner - although in this case it is small and does not automatically guarantee a majority: Crocetta didn't get one in 2012 and Musumeci almost didn't in 2017. However Schifani got close enough to 50% that I assume his coalition will easily reach a majority of the seats.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: MRCVzla on October 01, 2022, 05:08:01 PM
The document "Camera_riparto_italia_20220925" is quite interesting. Is there a similar document for the Senate?

I’m really trying to understand how the seats are assigned to the multi-member districts? Is there an explanation in English?

How are this compensation seats („compensazione“) and the seats which are finally assigned to the lists calculated?

Senate seat calculation are here: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/daithome/documenti/Senato_riparto_italia_20220925.pdf
All reports/Open Data downloable are there: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/report/20220925

As they tried to explain in earlier posts, the whole PR seat distribution process into constituencies is very complex (the italian media called the calculus as "the Flipper effect"), at the House first calculate nationwide (minus Aosta Valley), then at constituency level (first coalitions/single lists above 3%/regional-minority lists above 20%, later lists above 3% within coalitions), then correct when the results don't match with the nationwide calc, and then distribute within the proportional districts, in the Senate nationwide vote only matters for thresholds as regional/constituency seat distribution prevails, then correct by PR district level.

The "compensation seats" are the corrections to the nationwide result, it's a game of rests, quotients, etc, the "lista eccedentaria"/"lista deficitaria" calcs may help as the corrections happens when the we have an extra "integral quotient" seat in a lower "quotient decimal" attribution.

The seat distribution in the Chamber may change again when all the missing precincts (specially at Sicily cames) or when the Corte di Cassazione jury falls with the final results.

Anyway, I don't think the results of the Sicilian regional election were actually reported here so I'll do now: Renato Schifani (CDX) won with 42%, Cateno De Luca (SUD CHIAMA NORD) was second with 24% and then Caterina Chinnici (CSX) with 16% came narrowly ahead of Nunzio Di Paola (M5S) with 15%. Gaetano Armao, the candidate of Calenzi, got a meager 2%.

Compared to the results for the national Parliament, this is a big overperformance for De Luca but surprisingly also a smaller one for the right, while predictably a big underperformance for M5S; the centre-left did almost identically, and A/IV underperformed by a relatively significant amount.

De Luca obviously landslided in the province of Messina, he also narrowly lost Enna while all the other provinces had an ample margin for Schifani. AG was the best province for Schifani, EN the best for Chinnici (very hilarious but common in recent times) and CL the best for Di Paola. A list called "DC - Democrazia Cristiana" got a significant number of votes, possibly over 5%, something which will surprise no one. I should point out there are still quite a few precincts left to report in the province of Siracusa, but they shouldn't affect the final result except by a fraction of a percentage point.

The DC Sicily is led by former regional president Salvatore "Totò" Cuffaro, barred from life to hold office for a mafia-link sentence who spended jail time between 2011 and 2015. He seems retain some of his vote base after all this years, or the list also was helped to have to support of the mayor heir of the DC and their "crusader shield", the UDC.

All the center-right list in Sicily were over the 5% threshold, apart of the "big three", also the other moderate list hold seats, "Popular and Autonomists" led by former minister Francesco Saverio Romano (elected in the House) and the MPA of other former regional president Raffaele Lombardo.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: MRCVzla on October 01, 2022, 05:14:11 PM
Not quite, as always there's a seat prize for the winner - although in this case it is small and does not automatically guarantee a majority: Crocetta didn't get one in 2012 and Musumeci almost didn't in 2017. However Schifani got close enough to 50% that I assume his coalition will easily reach a majority of the seats.

The majority prize are extra 7 seats for Regional Presidential candidate in a list led by himself (the runner-up, in this case Cateno De Luca is also elected to the Regional Assembly). Majority is 36/70 seats so will may had one.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 03, 2022, 03:38:02 AM
The chart above has given me pause re: how "educational trends" may simply be downstream from age cohorts and the expanded access to/incentive for education among younger voters. Certainly there is some class aspect to educational background, but it can be overstated in a place like Italy (where education has lagged most globalized nations).

I'm late, but I will say that this is certainly true. The more educated categories also usually skew younger than the general population while the opposite is true for the more educated categories. So depending on country, sometimes splits by education can end up as a proxy for voting by age.

(For what's worth that's also something applicable for Spain, particularly for the most "extreme" categories like "no formal education" or "elementary school only"; so I'm not too surprised it's applicable in Italy too even in spite of a very different political system)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Andrea on October 07, 2022, 05:18:31 PM
The document "Camera_riparto_italia_20220925" is quite interesting. Is there a similar document for the Senate?

I’m really trying to understand how the seats are assigned to the multi-member districts? Is there an explanation in English?

How are this compensation seats („compensazione“) and the seats which are finally assigned to the lists calculated?

Senate seat calculation are here: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/daithome/documenti/Senato_riparto_italia_20220925.pdf
All reports/Open Data downloable are there: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/report/20220925

As they tried to explain in earlier posts, the whole PR seat distribution process into constituencies is very complex (the italian media called the calculus as "the Flipper effect"), at the House first calculate nationwide (minus Aosta Valley), then at constituency level (first coalitions/single lists above 3%/regional-minority lists above 20%, later lists above 3% within coalitions), then correct when the results don't match with the nationwide calc, and then distribute within the proportional districts, in the Senate nationwide vote only matters for thresholds as regional/constituency seat distribution prevails, then correct by PR district level.

The "compensation seats" are the corrections to the nationwide result, it's a game of rests, quotients, etc, the "lista eccedentaria"/"lista deficitaria" calcs may help as the corrections happens when the we have an extra "integral quotient" seat in a lower "quotient decimal" attribution.

The seat distribution in the Chamber may change again when all the missing precincts (specially at Sicily cames) or when the Corte di Cassazione jury falls with the final results.


It apparently changed today due to some corrections in Puglia.
Forza Italia seat moved from Foggia to Toranto (from Lanotte to De Palma).
In the Green/Left, Fratoianni's wife gets in instead someone in Emilia


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 11, 2022, 10:41:17 AM
()

Absolutely hilarious map here. Lega's vote crashed utterly in the North (including both areas of traditional and newer strength) and in Central Italy but actually held up O.K. further south (actually increased in parts of Sicily hahahaha), where it has always been very weak, producing a quite ridiculous map.

()

Further collapse across the board, of course, including the final desertion of the bulk of what were once Forza Italia's core voters in Western Lombardy. What's left looks like a clientelist map more than a Berlusconi map.

()

Completely ridiculous map that to an extent tracks affluence, but which also has various other weird features all over the place.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 11, 2022, 03:18:31 PM
Calenda is really a Tory isn't he? Save for the wrong random Southern strongholds and for a weaker result in Piedmont/Liguria this might as well be a map of the PLI at its post-war peak in the 1960s.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 11, 2022, 03:28:43 PM
Calenda is really a Tory isn't he? Save for the wrong random Southern strongholds and for a weaker result in Piedmont/Liguria this might as well be a map of the PLI at its post-war peak in the 1960s.

I suppose when you weld Renzi's little 'Genepool DCs For Unspecified Reform' clique onto the personality cult of some aristocratic dilettante that completely absurd map does have a degree of ludicrous logic to it...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 13, 2022, 01:10:33 PM
Ignazio La Russa (FdI) was elected president of the Senate - crucially, without FI votes. Berlusconi still seemed to coveting that position, either for himself or for a fellow party member, and so attempted to make a power play by withdrawing his Senators from the vote. As it turned out, however, enough Senators from opposition parties ended up voting for La Russa anyway. Voting was secret, so we won't know who actually voted for La Russa, but regardless that's a pretty stinging humiliation for Berlusconi and an early victory for Meloni.

Tomorrow the House will elect its own president, and this time there seems to be a broad agreement for a Leghista. Once that's over with, government negotiations will begin in earnest.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 14, 2022, 11:27:13 AM
Ignazio La Russa (FdI) was elected president of the Senate - crucially, without FI votes. Berlusconi still seemed to coveting that position, either for himself or for a fellow party member, and so attempted to make a power play by withdrawing his Senators from the vote. As it turned out, however, enough Senators from opposition parties ended up voting for La Russa anyway. Voting was secret, so we won't know who actually voted for La Russa, but regardless that's a pretty stinging humiliation for Berlusconi and an early victory for Meloni.

Tomorrow the House will elect its own president, and this time there seems to be a broad agreement for a Leghista. Once that's over with, government negotiations will begin in earnest.

Today the Chamber elected Lorenzo Fontana (Lega), this time with all the majority staying together. It's one especially controversial person after the other then.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on October 14, 2022, 11:32:53 AM
Ignazio La Russa (FdI) was elected president of the Senate - crucially, without FI votes. Berlusconi still seemed to coveting that position, either for himself or for a fellow party member, and so attempted to make a power play by withdrawing his Senators from the vote. As it turned out, however, enough Senators from opposition parties ended up voting for La Russa anyway. Voting was secret, so we won't know who actually voted for La Russa, but regardless that's a pretty stinging humiliation for Berlusconi and an early victory for Meloni.

Tomorrow the House will elect its own president, and this time there seems to be a broad agreement for a Leghista. Once that's over with, government negotiations will begin in earnest.

Berlusconi lol

The John Oliver piece on him was illuminating (it also included Renzi)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 19, 2022, 03:18:20 AM
Speaking of Berlusconi, he is creating significant trouble to Meloni in the formation of the new government, between claiming certain posts for key FI figures have already been agreed on when they actually haven't and especially never shutting up about how good his personal relationship with his close friend Vladimir is. This while Meloni is inclined to give some ministries to experts/technocrats in her quest for institutional credibility.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 19, 2022, 01:35:28 PM
Silvio Berlusconi managed to sink to new lows, and in the process create the first big headache for Meloni before she's even PM.

Yesterday and today leaked audio came out where Berlusconi parroted word for word Russia's narrative on the Ukraine war, arguing that it was all Zelenskyy's fault and that Putin had no choice. In another audio he waxes poetic about a "very sweet" letter Putin sent him for his birthday (reminds you of anyone?).

Needless to say, this is not what Meloni needed in the wake of the beginning of the official government formation process. She has gone to great pains to prove her pro-Ukraine and pro-NATO bona fides, only to have it constantly undermined by her "allies". Doubly awkward because the person slated to be foreign minister is Antonio Tajani of FI (Tajani himself has strong international credentials, having been the president of the EP among others, but coming from a party led by this f**king guy is still hard to look past). In a communiqué just a few minutes ago, Meloni said she would lead a pro-NATO government and that all her partners must agree to it, or there would be no government at all. This sounds as close as an ultimatum as we've heard from her.

We'll see exactly how this situation resolves itself. It probably will, but the way it does might say a lot about the future of Italy in Europe and the West.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 20, 2022, 03:42:27 AM
How the hell does crypto-fascist Meloni manage to be the adult in the room vs ""centre-right moderate"" Berlusconi?

I thought I'd have to support FI's moderating influence, but it seems somehow FdI are the real moderates? Italian politics never cease to disappoint I guess

Or is NATO/the EU an exception in policy?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 20, 2022, 07:37:49 AM
How the hell does crypto-fascist Meloni manage to be the adult in the room vs ""centre-right moderate"" Berlusconi?

I thought I'd have to support FI's moderating influence, but it seems somehow FdI are the real moderates? Italian politics never cease to disappoint I guess

Or is NATO/the EU an exception in policy?

NATO/Ukraine is very much the sticking point for Berlusconi (and with Salvini too, but there's a lot more going on with Salvini). Berlusconi is usually more pro-EU than Meloni (although Meloni has moderated a lot on the EU during and after the campaign). On economic policy, meanwhile, it's less clear who is more right-wing (well, Lega is) but Meloni has struck a more "fiscally conservative" chord by pulling the breaks on some of Lega and FI's proposed tax cuts.

Ultimately, it's less of a question of who is more or less right-wing, and more a question of who is actually serious about governing a country in Italy's economic shape and with Italy's international position for the next 5 years. And it's pretty clear Meloni is the only one of the three in this regard.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: MRCVzla on October 20, 2022, 10:01:23 AM
Berlusca crisis aside, today started formally the Consultation Round at the Quirinale, will last between today and tomorrow 21 with all the parliamentary groups and mixed group components formed yesterday at both Chambers. Despite all the controversy, all center-right groups (aka the soon-to-be majority) are expected to be received together by Matarella tomorrow in order to encharge Meloni a government quickly.
()

Camera dei Deputati:
Fratelli d'Italia: 118 (-1)*; caucus leader: Francesco Lollobrigida
Partito Democratico-Italia Democratica e Progressista: 69 (-1/+1)**; caucus leader: Debora Serrachiani
Lega-Salvini Premier: 66; caucus leader: Riccardo Molinari
MoVimento 5 Stelle: 52; caucus leader: Francesco Silvestri
Forza Italia-Berlusconi Presidente-PPE: 44 (-1)***; caucus leader: Alessandro Cattaneo
Azione-Italia Viva-Renew Europe: 21; caucus leader: Matteo Richetti (Azione)
Mixed group: 30
- Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra: 12 (asking for a repeal to form their own group)
- Noi Moderati-MAIE: 9 (+1)*
- +Europa: 3 (+1)**
- Linguistic minorities: 3 (-1)***
- Non inscrits: 3***

*Expelled FdI MP Calogero Pisano (the one who "praised Hitler") sits with the Noi Moderati-MAIE component
**éViva' Luca Pastorino helps +Europa to have their own component, while CD' sole MP Bruno Tabacci pulled a Casini and sits as independent in the PD caucus.
***Berlusconian "animalist" Michella Brambilla decided to sit in the mixed group as independent, the other 2 non inscrits are Sud Chiama Nord' Francesco Gallo and SVP' Dieter Steger (temporary i guess)

Senato della Repubblica:
Fratelli d'Italia: 63 (-3); caucus leader: Luca Ciriani
Partito Democratico-Italia Democratica e Progressista: 38 (-2); caucus leader: Simona Malpezzi
Lega Salvini Premier-Partito Sardo d'Azione: 29; caucus leader: Massimiliano Romeo
MoVimento 5 Stelle: 28; caucus leader: Barbara Floridia
Forza Italia Berlusconi Presidente: 18; caucus leader: Licia Ronzulli
Azione-Italia Viva-Renew Europe: 9; caucus leader: Raffaela Paita (IV)
For the Autonomy: 7; caucus leader: Julia Unterberger (SVP)*
Civici d'Italia-Noi Moderati-MAIE: 6; caucus leader: Antonio De Poli (UDC)**
Mixed group: 7 (the 4 Verdi-Sinistra senators plus 3 senators for life -Liliana Segre, Mario Monti and Renzo Piano)
Non member of any group: 1, senator for life Carlo Rubbia

*As the "tradition" goes, senators from Trentino-South Tyrol, Aosta Valley plus other regional/local parties and independents forms this tecnical group, with SVP and ScN senators, 2 PD senators elected in TAA plus senators for life Elena Cattaneo and former President Giorgio Napolitano.
**3 FdI senators help to form this group, with the new mininum number to form a group (6 senators)

Voting for chambers' Vice Presidents happen as "expected", with 2 Cdx (FdI and FI in the House, Lega and FI in the Senate), 1 PD and 1 M5S taking the posts, Azione-IV walked out in both votations as there was no agreement to ceede a post for them.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: MRCVzla on October 21, 2022, 11:01:20 AM
After today meeting with all the Centre-right, Meloni has been commisioned by Mattarella and will take office tomorrow at 10:00 CET.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 21, 2022, 01:23:59 PM
Here's the list of ministers:

Undersecretary to the PM: Mantovano (Ind, close to FdI)

Deputy PM, Infrastructures: Salvini (Lega)
Deputy PM, Foreign Affairs: Tajani (FI)
Economy: Giorgetti (Lega)
Defense: Crosetto (FdI)
Interior: Piantedosi (Ind, close to Lega)
Justice: Nordio (FdI)
Business: Urso (FdI)
Civil Service: Zangrillo (FI)
Environment and Energy: Pichetto Fratin (FI)
Agriculture: Lollobrigida (FdI)
Institutional Reforms: Casellati (FI)
Regional Affairs: Calderoli (Lega)
Relations with Parliament: Ciriani (FdI)
University and Research: Bernini (FI)
Labor and Social Policies: Calderone (Ind)
Culture: Sangiuliano (Ind)
Family, Natality and Equal Opportunity (lmao, sure): Roccella (FdI)
Disability: Locatelli (Lega)
Youth: Abodi (Ind)
Health: Schillaci (Ind)
Education: Valditara (Lega)
Tourism: Santanchè (FdI)
European Affairs: Fitto (FdI)
Sea and South (??): Musumeci (FdI)

Lega scored some victories with the economy ministry for Giorgetti (which Meloni originally wanted to pick a technocratic figure for), and still has a sympathetic figure in the Interior Ministry, but of course not Salvini himself. FI most notably had to give up the Justice Ministry, which Berlusconi really wanted for Casellati. Still, given recent events, it's frankly remarkable Tajani got the spot of Italy's chief diplomat. In the end the "technical" ministers are largely window dressing, which is probably not what Meloni wanted, but probably no big sacrifice either. Even Giorgetti won't be much of a thorn in her side, as he's known as a reliable pragmatist and no big friend of Salvini.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 21, 2022, 02:29:39 PM
Are we really about to get Calderoli's and Fitto's careers resurrected? Not to mention Santanchè - whose nomination was very poorly received by my mother, someone who works in the tourism sector bureaucracy and who voted FdI last month. Lol, lmao.

Anyway, Lega getting Infrastructure, Economy and Regional Affairs at the same time is unfortunate in terms of the country's stability and unity going forward.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Andrea on October 21, 2022, 04:23:22 PM

Civil Service: Zangrillo (FI)
Environment and Energy: Pichetto Fratin (FI)


Meloni originally said the opposite when she first read the list...then they issued a statement switching them.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Conservatopia on October 21, 2022, 04:33:24 PM
Fitto has such a long career of failing upwards that he almost seems British. Which given his history, isn't a surprise.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 22, 2022, 07:12:30 AM
Meloni has sworn in. The Girlboss Era has begun.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 22, 2022, 09:06:48 AM
I am surprised it took so little. But perhaps I should not, since our Right tends to fall in line pretty easily in the end.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 22, 2022, 11:06:57 AM
I am surprised it took so little. But perhaps I should not, since our Right tends to fall in line pretty easily in the end.

Yeah, at the end of the day the power dynamics were clear from the start, and Salvini and Berlusconi were both sensible enough to realize that causing a stir would only make their position weaker. All in all, a remarkably "normal" government formation process among parties with some divergences but broadly ideologically aligned. This normality is itself remarkable given both Italy's recent history and what's going on in Some Other countries right now, of course.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 23, 2022, 05:55:02 AM
This morning Draghi and Meloni had a long chat at Palazzo Chigi, following which the traditional ceremony of the bell was held (the previous President of the Council hands a small ringing bell to the new one, symbolizing the transition of power from one government to the other). Later today there should be the first Council of Ministers led by Meloni.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 26, 2022, 05:32:23 AM
Last night the House voted confidence in Meloni, 235 to 154. Today it will be the turn of the Senate.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 26, 2022, 04:19:22 PM
Last night the House voted confidence in Meloni, 235 to 154. Today it will be the turn of the Senate.

And the Senate followed suit, 115-79.

So today Meloni is PM in the fullest of her capacities. Now we'll finally get to see her true face.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: 2016 on October 31, 2022, 02:19:03 PM
The new Italian Govtm ended all COVID-19 Restrictions. So good to see. Wish we could do that in the USA.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Horus on October 31, 2022, 02:21:38 PM
The new Italian Govtm ended all COVID-19 Restrictions. So good to see. Wish we could do that in the USA.

Not sure where you live but I haven't encountered COVID restrictions in months now. Even at the hospital the other day there were some unmasked folks and no one bothered them.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Continential on October 31, 2022, 02:23:18 PM
The new Italian Govtm ended all COVID-19 Restrictions. So good to see. Wish we could do that in the USA.

Not sure where you live but I haven't encountered COVID restrictions in months now. Even at the hospital the other day there were some unmasked folks and no one bothered them.
He isn’t American.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 31, 2022, 02:29:35 PM
fwiw Meloni has already backtracked on this and will keep certain restrictions in place for now. Still, yeah, she's clearly throwing a bone to these types of people.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 31, 2022, 03:47:03 PM
What restrictions are there still in place in Italy in the first place anyways? At least here only one I can think of is "masks in public transit and hospitals", which doesn't seem like removing it would be all that radical.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: FrancoAgo on October 31, 2022, 04:30:46 PM
just only mask in hospitals


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on November 01, 2022, 10:22:10 AM
Quote
The new government of far-right PM Giorgia Meloni has said it will make staging unlicensed raves a crime, hours after stopping one in northern Italy.

The new crime of "invasion for dangerous gatherings" of more than 50 people would attract up to six years in jail and opens up the possibility of wiretapping rave organisers.

A thousand ravers were ordered to leave a warehouse rave in Modena on Monday.

"The party's over!" declared far-right minister Matteo Salvini.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63468598


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 01, 2022, 10:26:41 AM
Yep. Here it begins.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 01, 2022, 12:05:51 PM
Nothing we need more than a government and a news cycle focused on a rave party in Modena and students occupying classrooms in La Sapienza University...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on November 01, 2022, 02:56:36 PM
()
*not that I endorse dangerous raves liable to become death traps in cases of fire.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on November 01, 2022, 06:16:30 PM
Quote
The new government of far-right PM Giorgia Meloni has said it will make staging unlicensed raves a crime, hours after stopping one in northern Italy.

The new crime of "invasion for dangerous gatherings" of more than 50 people would attract up to six years in jail and opens up the possibility of wiretapping rave organisers.

A thousand ravers were ordered to leave a warehouse rave in Modena on Monday.

"The party's over!" declared far-right minister Matteo Salvini.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63468598

Quote
the Mussolini march had not disrupted public order and had been happening for years

damn, the wording of that

*chef's kiss*




Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 02, 2022, 07:42:44 AM
Quote
The new government of far-right PM Giorgia Meloni has said it will make staging unlicensed raves a crime, hours after stopping one in northern Italy.

The new crime of "invasion for dangerous gatherings" of more than 50 people would attract up to six years in jail and opens up the possibility of wiretapping rave organisers.

A thousand ravers were ordered to leave a warehouse rave in Modena on Monday.

"The party's over!" declared far-right minister Matteo Salvini.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63468598

Quote
the Mussolini march had not disrupted public order and had been happening for years

damn, the wording of that

*chef's kiss*

This is actually interesting because Predappio was a left-wing stronghold until the other day - although with a historically high MSI/AN vote - and the current municipal administration elected in 2019 is the first not from the left in forever. It is clear that they're bothered (including the incumbent mayor) by nostalgics in black shirts coming to town to march on various anniversaries, but I'm not sure they can... stop them if the prefecture/Viminal gives the green light. At the same time for the rest of the year Predappio is still a place which is famous for exactly one thing and many of its touristic or cultural opportunities are inevitably and perhaps consciously related to it (alternatively, you can enjoy Sangiovese di Romagna wine I guess).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 05, 2022, 11:40:09 AM
We finally have mapparoma's analysis and data for 2022: https://www.mapparoma.info/mappe/mapparoma38-elezioni-politiche-2022-il-centrodestra-vince-sulle-divisioni-di-centrosinistra-e-m5s/

It confirms at a much greater level of detail what we already knew: the PD and the centre-left in general (interestingly even +E had a much flatter electorate than 2018) lost heavily in the richest districts while gaining significant amounts in working class peripheries, the right-wing electorate moved downscale thanks to the absorption of a lot of former M5S voters, all compensated by A/IV whose support tracks with affluence and education to an extent that's eye-popping and doesn't resemble this year's CSX all that much... and even how M5S shifted slightly more towards a "left-wing" electorate while collapsing (for instance it did a hair better in the Garbatella than in the uber right-wing countryside of Boccea, very unlike 2018).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 07, 2022, 05:57:28 AM
Letizia Moratti, after resigning from the post of regional vice-president of Lombardy, just announced her candidacy for president (elections in early 2023) with Calenzi. This is very funny on multiple levels, not just the effective about-face but the fact that she is the most recent mayor of Milan from the right (2006-2011) and her rich person's rich person biography - businesswoman who is the daughter of an aristocrat and the widow of an oil magnate.

In other words, Tory runs with Tory party for leadership of wealthiest region?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Zinneke on November 20, 2022, 07:13:35 AM



 anti-colonialist Giorgia Meloni.

(Also the first time I have understood her particular charisma)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: The Free North on November 20, 2022, 01:38:26 PM



 anti-colonialist Giorgia Meloni.

(Also the first time I have understood her particular charisma)


Based beyond belief.

Nothing good has come out of France since the 5th century. The country is a disgrace on so many levels. Meloni is fantastic.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 20, 2022, 01:47:34 PM
lol


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on November 20, 2022, 07:15:38 PM
France-Italy banter has reached heights not seen since Italy signed a pact with Prussia in the 19th century.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 21, 2022, 07:04:31 AM
Meloni (and probably other parts of the hard right, less sure about that) has long railed against the CFA franc and related neo-colonialism, yes. In fact there are probably as many Italians who know what the CFA franc is as there are French people.

In other news, the PD primaries have been set for February 19th - a much faster schedule than what went on in 2018/2019. I have low expectations about the whole process, expectations that are lowered every day by the media trying to promote a Bonaccini vs Schlein horse race and party voters seemingly being into nonsense like a change of name and the polls being what they are. I'll think about Lombardy and Lazio (!) instead.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: CumbrianLefty on November 21, 2022, 11:18:12 AM
France-Italy banter has reached heights not seen since Italy signed a pact with Prussia in the 19th century.

Mussolini trying and failing to claim some of France for himself in 1940 has to be up there.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 21, 2022, 12:23:15 PM
France-Italy banter has reached heights not seen since Italy signed a pact with Prussia in the 19th century.

Mussolini trying and failing to claim some of France for himself in 1940 has to be up there.

I see everyone here has forgotten Macron recalling his ambassador because Di Maio had met with a leader of the gilets jaunes...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 22, 2022, 06:27:12 AM
Roberto Maroni, former Lega leader, Minister of the Interior in the first and fourth Berlusconi governments (and of Labour in the second and third), president of Lombardy from 2013 to 2018, often intra-party critic both of Bossi earlier and Salvini recently, just died of cancer.

One of the most important politicians of the last thirty years, and while his politics was not at all my cup of tea (or my cup of espresso), it could have been a lot worse. Either way this is sad, he was only 67.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on November 23, 2022, 06:18:19 AM
France-Italy banter has reached heights not seen since Italy signed a pact with Prussia in the 19th century.

Mussolini trying and failing to claim some of France for himself in 1940 has to be up there.

I see everyone here has forgotten Macron recalling his ambassador because Di Maio had met with a leader of the gilets jaunes...
Tbf, the yellow vests feels like an eternity ago.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on November 23, 2022, 06:42:02 AM

Everything Meloni is saying is correct. I'm unsure why this is funny. Particularly to someone who should be 'anti-imperialist'.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 23, 2022, 07:50:50 AM

Everything Meloni is saying is correct. I'm unsure why this is funny. Particularly to someone who should be 'anti-imperialist'.

oh, we've got an international political economy expert in chat ::)

Frankly the workings of the Franc CFA system are beyond me as they're beyond like 95% of this forum. I'm sure it's exploitative in some way (like almost all dealings between developed and developing countries are), but no, it doesn't work like Meloni says it does, and there are reasons why these countries (many of which are on pretty bad terms with France right now) find it preferable to having their own national currecy.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on November 23, 2022, 08:42:19 AM

Everything Meloni is saying is correct. I'm unsure why this is funny. Particularly to someone who should be 'anti-imperialist'.

oh, we've got an international political economy expert in chat ::)

Frankly the workings of the Franc CFA system are beyond me as they're beyond like 95% of this forum. I'm sure it's exploitative in some way (like almost all dealings between developed and developing countries are), but no, it doesn't work like Meloni says it does, and there are reasons why these countries (many of which are on pretty bad terms with France right now) find it preferable to having their own national currecy.

They find it preferable because France makes up a gargantuan amount of their trade. Really you are just proving my point. They can't stop using it because France has that much control.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 23, 2022, 09:51:05 AM

Everything Meloni is saying is correct. I'm unsure why this is funny. Particularly to someone who should be 'anti-imperialist'.

oh, we've got an international political economy expert in chat ::)

Frankly the workings of the Franc CFA system are beyond me as they're beyond like 95% of this forum. I'm sure it's exploitative in some way (like almost all dealings between developed and developing countries are), but no, it doesn't work like Meloni says it does, and there are reasons why these countries (many of which are on pretty bad terms with France right now) find it preferable to having their own national currecy.

They find it preferable because France makes up a gargantuan amount of their trade. Really you are just proving my point. They can't stop using it because France has that much control.

Unequal trade relationships are a ubiquitous feature of the modern global economy. It's bad and it should change, but has nothing to do with a petty feud between two developed Western European countries. Also another important benefit is monetary stability - the same reason why countries used to be on the gold standards during the 19th century and why they tried to set up the Bretton Woods system until Nixon blew it up. It's especially important for developing countries since investors tend to be more sensitive to monetary risks.

Again, I'm not qualified enough to actually discuss the pros and cons here (unlike you, I've actually taken classes in international political economy before, but I'm sensible enough to realize that doesn't make me an expert). But evidently that doesn't stop cheap populist politicians and their moronic Atlas simps from bloviating on the subject.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on November 27, 2022, 07:41:29 AM
Why is Meloni going up in the polls? Her average has risen to nearly 30% (almost 1/6 an increase) after two months. I don't think she's done anything positive of note yet, although someone more well-versed on Italian politics can correct me if I'm wrong.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Cassius on November 28, 2022, 06:27:46 AM
Why is Meloni going up in the polls? Her average has risen to nearly 30% (almost 1/6 an increase) after two months. I don't think she's done anything positive of note yet, although someone more well-versed on Italian politics can correct me if I'm wrong.

Looks like she’s consolidating more of the right-wing vote behind her now that she’s clearly top dog on the right. Same thing happened for Salvini in the aftermath of 2018, where the Lega bounced very quickly from the 17% it received in the actual election into the low to mid 20s.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 28, 2022, 11:58:11 AM
Why is Meloni going up in the polls? Her average has risen to nearly 30% (almost 1/6 an increase) after two months. I don't think she's done anything positive of note yet, although someone more well-versed on Italian politics can correct me if I'm wrong.

Looks like she’s consolidating more of the right-wing vote behind her now that she’s clearly top dog on the right. Same thing happened for Salvini in the aftermath of 2018, where the Lega bounced very quickly from the 17% it received in the actual election into the low to mid 20s.

Of course, Lega soon started to make further gains by eating into the M5S vote in a way that for obvious reasons is not possible for FdI this time. But that was across a longer timespan (we must not forget that at this point in the legislature in 2018 we were still far from having a new government).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on December 03, 2022, 06:56:48 AM
It is now official: the Lazio and Lombardy regional elections will be held on February 12th (with a probable extension to the following day in Lombardy), which also happens to be exactly one week before the PD primaries.

In Lazio the PD and allies will run regional minister for health Alessio D'Amato, who is also supported by A/IV, while the Right seems to be still undecided on their candidate and the M5S is in an unclear position but looks more and more likely to go alone despite having been coopted into the Zingaretti administration - the Rome waste-to-energy plant is said to be the big sticking point. In Lombardy the Right is obviously supporting the re-election of president Attilio Fontana, A/IV as said have embraced the candidacy of his former (until the other month) vice president Letizia Moratti, and in the centre-left PD MEP Pierfrancesco Majorino is trying hard to get the Five Stars on board but we still don't know if his will be the only other major candidacy.

The few polls of Lazio seem all over the place and I struggle to make a prediction, while Lombardy is pretty much safe for Fontana although he should only get a plurality.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 19, 2023, 05:29:16 PM
Now that the deadline to present the official candidate lists for the Lazio and Lombardy regional elections has passed, I think it's time to make a recollection post.

LAZIO

Two-term regional president Nicola Zingaretti, best known for being PD secretary from 2019 to 2021 or for being the brother of actor Luca Zingaretti depending on who you ask, resigned a few months ago to take a seat in Parliament. He would not have been eligible to run again anyway. The main candidates are:

Alessio D'Amato, incumbent regional minister for Health. Supported by PD and allies plus A/IV.
Francesco Rocca, president of the Italian Red Cross. Supported by all the Right.
Donatella Bianchi, former president of WWF Italy. Supported by the M5S and a small left-wing list.

There are two minor candidates, Rosa Rinaldi (Unione Popolare) and Sonia Pecorilli (not sure which one of the many parties called "communist" but I think Rizzo's). There have been a few polls and Rocca enjoys a small but consistent lead over D'Amato while Bianchi is taking around 15% of the vote. Rocca would almost certainly lose a one vs one race but alas, apparently agreeing - one way or the other - on the waste-to-energy plant was too much to ask. Probable CDX flip.


LOMBARDY

One-term regional president Attilio Fontana (Lega) is running again with the the support of all the Right despite lackluster approval. His main opponents are:

Pierfrancesco Majorino, member of the EU Parliament for the Democratic Party. Supported by PD, AVS and M5S.
Letizia Moratti, previously Fontana's deputy. Supported by Azione/Italia Viva.

The only other candidate is Mara Ghidorzi (Unione Popolare, supported by various far-left lists). You may notice that More Europe chose not to run at all, displeased both by Moratti and by Majorino's successful courting of the M5S. This race has received I believe even more polling than Lazio, and most of them have Fontana ahead of Majorino but by surprisingly little for a traditional right-wing stronghold at a time when the centre-left is not exactly enjoying much success. Moratti is usually somewhat short of 20% of the vote. Still, I am going to say safe CDX hold.


In other news... The 2023 budget was approved but I didn't follow much because all the coverage seemed awful. I know the citizenship income has been restricted and the flat tax regime for self-employed people has been expanded. The PNRR is starting to be implemented too. Meanwhile, in the Democratic primaries Bonaccini is leading Schlein.
And finally to lift our spirits, Minister of Culture Gennaro Sangiuliano has established himself as this government's meme character, with his recent comments like saying that those who use Anglicisms are "snobbish" and "radical chic" [sic] and calling Dante Alighieri the forefather of the Italian right-wing.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Logical on January 20, 2023, 12:13:47 PM
Presented without comment.
()


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 20, 2023, 08:14:38 PM

I would be glad if someone helped me figure out why all of my region is Andrea Doria but Genoa is a Jewish man in a tallit (I have already seen the image).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: FrancoAgo on January 21, 2023, 03:07:20 AM
tu lo sai


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 21, 2023, 10:39:19 AM

Is it because Genoese are stingy (tirchi)? Now that's a big yikes...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 25, 2023, 08:24:24 AM
In more serious news, the Meloni government is starting to hit its first speed bumps. The most notable one is a strike of gas station attendants that started yesterday (and may or may not continue until tomorrow) in protest against a series of regulation the government passed to curb "speculation" in gas prices. This came after prices rose sharply in the new year following the end of government subsidies that had been enacted in the middle of the oil crisis last year (whereas Meloni had previously promised she would keep those subsidies). Whatever the merits of the proposal, it sure came off like the government was trying to blame gas stations for the outcome of its own policy decisions. Anyway the government seems interested in bringing this to a quick resolution and has already made significant concessions. And while the prices are high, they are significantly down from their peak and likely to fall further, so I don't expect this to be an enormous deal, but it's at least a sign that the honeymoon is over.

The other bubbling controversy is that the government is gearing up for yet another judicial reform that is likely to draw the ire of PD and M5S as well as of the judiciary itself. I don't know why they're so obsessed with relitigating this sh*t all the time, especially now that Berlusconi is close to politically irrelevant, but here we are again. Coming off the heels of the arrest of Messina Denaro, it also doesn't seem like the best optics to talk about reining in overzealous magistrates, but what do I know.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: FrancoAgo on January 25, 2023, 11:14:03 AM

Is it because Genoese are stingy (tirchi)? Now that's a big yikes...

sorry i've missed your reply, and actually i don't understand the second part

and yes, are actual stingy is not important all it's the "nomina"


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 25, 2023, 11:37:24 AM

Is it because Genoese are stingy (tirchi)? Now that's a big yikes...

sorry i've missed your reply, and actually i don't understand the second part

and yes, are actual stingy is not important all it's the "nomina"

Oh I just meant it's pretty bad, and it ruins the map for me.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: omar04 on January 25, 2023, 02:44:00 PM
Italy's pandemic recovery plan must halt demographic "tsunami" in south - ISTAT

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italys-pandemic-recovery-plan-must-halt-demographic-tsunami-south-istat-2023-01-25/




Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 03, 2023, 11:44:37 AM
The regional president of the Aosta Valley Erik Lavévaz (Union Valdôtaine) resigned last month, as part of a political crisis caused by growing suggestions inside his party to switch sides and go with the right. UV is a regionalist party which is very much an institution in the Valley, and while it currently isn't the largest party in the regional council it is widely understood to be the kingmaker. The party council of UV met yesterday and they narrowly approved a motion that urges a reconsolidation of the previous centre-left majority to elect Lavévaz's successor and to reconvene the party council as soon as possible to discuss the outcome, whereas the minority proposed to automatically start dealing with the right in case the first negotiations fail (without a new council meeting). However, out of those who sit as regional councillors, six out of seven voted for the latter motion, showcasing the split inside the party.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 04, 2023, 08:53:55 AM
In other news:

The government is involved in its biggest controversy yet. FdI Deputy Giovanni Donzelli made a fiery parliamentary speech where he accused the PD of siding with the Mafia and terrorism (because some of them met in jail with Alfredo Cospito, an anarchist terrorist who's been on hunger strike to protest against the 41bis hard prison regime to which he - and for the most part various Mafia bosses - is subjected) and referenced 'sensitive' information about Cospito, which he later explained he obtained from fellow FdI Deputy Andrea Delmastro Delle Vedove, who is the undesecretary to the ministry of Justice but also happens to be Donzelli's flatmate. Donzelli is also the vice-president of the parliamentary committee on national security... The oppositions have asked for the resignation of both of them, and even Minister of Justice Carlo Nordio (also from FdI) was visibly frustrated at first although he later asserted that none of the information in question was secret. Nordio also "washed his hands" of the matter and said he'll wait for the outcome of an investigation that has been opened by the prosecutor's office in Rome. Regarding the personal accusations, a parliamentary jury of honour has been convened to decide the matter, although I am not sure what its powers are (I had no idea this was even a thing). In all this, Meloni's silence has been very loud.

Roberto Calderoli of Lega has presented the (in)famous differential autonomy bill, also known as Northern supremacism with a human face. The good news is that this announcement may be a ploy for the Lombard regional election and the bill will later be shot down by FdI (or FI).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Mike88 on February 04, 2023, 11:30:28 AM
Meloni seems to be becoming like your average Premier who promisses a lot of "change" but then... nothing. Actually nothing, neither radical or moderate, just managing daily affairs.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 04, 2023, 11:49:19 AM
Meloni seems to be becoming like your average Premier who promisses a lot of "change" but then... nothing. Actually nothing, neither radical or moderate, just managing daily affairs.

There are in fact some relatively substantive reforms underway. However, instead of being about the kitchen-table concerns Italians have in their daily lives (and that drove Meloni to power in the first place) they are about the longstanding ideological obsessions of the right. One is judicial reform, always in the direction of sticking it to the judges/prosecutors who are accused of being too hard on politicians (and to be fair there is also a lot of corruption in the Italian judiciary, though not more than in other branches of government). The other is the law on "regional autonomy", which promises to let regions keep a higher share of their tax revenue. Of course that's good news for wealthy regions like the right-wing bastions of Lombardy and Veneto, and less good news for the South which is a lot more dependent on state support. So Meloni is definitely getting busy in government - but her priorities aren't exactly those of ordinary Italians.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Mike88 on February 04, 2023, 12:01:40 PM
Meloni seems to be becoming like your average Premier who promisses a lot of "change" but then... nothing. Actually nothing, neither radical or moderate, just managing daily affairs.

There are in fact some relatively substantive reforms underway. However, instead of being about the kitchen-table concerns Italians have in their daily lives (and that drove Meloni to power in the first place) they are about the longstanding ideological obsessions of the right. One is judicial reform, always in the direction of sticking it to the judges/prosecutors who are accused of being too hard on politicians (and to be fair there is also a lot of corruption in the Italian judiciary, though not more than in other branches of government). The other is the law on "regional autonomy", which promises to let regions keep a higher share of their tax revenue. Of course that's good news for wealthy regions like the right-wing bastions of Lombardy and Veneto, and less good news for the South which is a lot more dependent on state support. So Meloni is definitely getting busy in government - but her priorities aren't exactly those of ordinary Italians.

Sure, but it's nothing surprising. The justice reform thing you point out, and the criticisms of judges going "after" politicians, is a bit "whatever" in Southern Europe, as those who are in power, and have a lot of investigations around them, try to "paint" a negative image of the justice system. And the regions tax reform, is also similar to other countries, my own for example.

My earlier point is actually summarized by your last remark, she's just managing things in order to remain in power, just like other Premiers, and not tackling the main issues affecting Italy's society and economy.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 06, 2023, 05:08:13 AM
I had missed this but the Democratic Party has moved its primary by one week, so the vote will be on the 26th of February.

The four candidates...

Stefano Bonaccini, president of Emilia-Romagna. Notable things about him: on the more moderate liberal wing of the party, won re-election by a bigger margin than expected in 2020, has been supportive of increased regional autonomy, wants the M5S to eat sh**t.
Elly Schlein, vicepresident of Emilia-Romagna (yes really) until her election to Parliament last September. Notable things about her: very progressive, bisexual, Jewish, also a Swiss and a US citizen, left the PD in 2015 because she considered Renzi too right-wing before rejoining recently.
Paola De Micheli, Deputy. Notable things about her: blank stare well she was the vice-secretary under Zingaretti and the Minister of Transport during Conte II I guess. And she is also from Emilia-Romagna!
Gianni Cuperlo, Deputy. Notable things about him: aside from being the only non-Emilian in the race, being a complete blast from the past (he ran for this post in 2014 and not quite as a fresh new face). I am half convinced his candidacy is a deliberate meme.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 06, 2023, 05:31:51 AM
Meloni seems to be becoming like your average Premier who promisses a lot of "change" but then... nothing. Actually nothing, neither radical or moderate, just managing daily affairs.

There are in fact some relatively substantive reforms underway. However, instead of being about the kitchen-table concerns Italians have in their daily lives (and that drove Meloni to power in the first place) they are about the longstanding ideological obsessions of the right. One is judicial reform, always in the direction of sticking it to the judges/prosecutors who are accused of being too hard on politicians (and to be fair there is also a lot of corruption in the Italian judiciary, though not more than in other branches of government). The other is the law on "regional autonomy", which promises to let regions keep a higher share of their tax revenue. Of course that's good news for wealthy regions like the right-wing bastions of Lombardy and Veneto, and less good news for the South which is a lot more dependent on state support. So Meloni is definitely getting busy in government - but her priorities aren't exactly those of ordinary Italians.

Sure, but it's nothing surprising. The justice reform thing you point out, and the criticisms of judges going "after" politicians, is a bit "whatever" in Southern Europe, as those who are in power, and have a lot of investigations around them, try to "paint" a negative image of the justice system. And the regions tax reform, is also similar to other countries, my own for example.

My earlier point is actually summarized by your last remark, she's just managing things in order to remain in power, just like other Premiers, and not tackling the main issues affecting Italy's society and economy.

I would say that the law on regional autonomy is a significant measure addressing one of the main issue affecting our society and economy actually... just one that goes in the wrong direction.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 12, 2023, 06:16:21 PM
Today was finally the (first) day of the Lazio and Lombardy regional elections. Turnout was rather low, around 32% in Lombardy and 29% in Lazio - we'll see how much it will increase tomorrow. If it got up to 50% or so it would be pretty normal accounting for the elections being standalone events at a fairly random time of the year, although still way down from 2018 when the regionals coincided with the parliamentary vote. However I find that figure unlikely.

Later I need to talk about the regional election in Molise as well, which is bound to happen within the spring and may get exciting since a recent poll suggests that incumbent president Donato Toma (Forza Italia) is horridly unpopular. He only narrowly beat his M5S challenger five years ago.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: MRCVzla on February 13, 2023, 09:14:08 AM
Polls are closed, according exit polls, Centre-right gains Lazio and retains Lombardia.
Opinio (Noto/EMG/Piepoli) for Rai / Quorum/YouTrend for SkyTG24 / Tecnè for Mediaset:
LOMBARDIA
Attilio Fontana (CDX, inc) 49.5-53.5% / 48-52% / 49-53%
Pierfrancesco Majorino (CSX) 33-37% / 32-36% / 33-37%
Letizia Moratti (Centre) 9.5-13.5% / 12-16% / 10-14%
Mara Ghidorzi (UP) 1-3% / 1-3%

LAZIO
Francesco Rocca (CDX) 50.5-54.5% / 48-52% / 50-54%
Alessio D'Amato (CSX) 30-34% / 29-33% / 31-35%
Donatella Bianchi (M5S) 10.5-14.5% / 14-18% / 10.5-14.5%
Rosa Rinaldi (UP) 1-3% / 1-3%

Turnout in Lazio is around 45-46%, in Lombardia around 41-42%, of course a downfall respect to 2018, where both regional elections were hold in the same date of the general elections.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 13, 2023, 09:34:58 AM
Thanks to MRCVzla for updating with the preliminary results. I find curious that turnout was higher in Lombardy yesterday but will end up higher in Lazio overall. I don't even think weather was bad in Lombardy this morning so it's strange.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 13, 2023, 10:51:52 AM
Issuing correction on the previous post of mine: the initial turnout reports that were based on a smaller number of municipalities were wrong, and it seems that actually turnout was 37% in Lazio compared to 41% in Lombardy. Sigh.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: MRCVzla on February 13, 2023, 11:35:15 AM
Effectively, 41.7% in Lombardia (73.1% in 2018) and 37.2% in Lazio (66.6% in 2018), the latter is the lowest turnout EVER in a regional election (the former record was from Emilia-Romagna 2014 with 37.7%)

Apart from CDX winning both races, the other headline would be in the party list votes, specially in Lombardia as like in the past September general election, pollsters projections FdI becomes the most voted party within Cdx outrating Lega (FdI 23-26%/Lega 15-16%/FI 7%/Fontana civic list 6-7%)

Official election results page from the Internal Affairs Ministry: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/regionali/scrutini/20230212/scrutiniRI


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: jaichind on February 13, 2023, 01:46:35 PM
I just realized that in Lombardia M5S joined the Center-Left list.  It did not seem to do them much good and instead gave space to the Centrist list to get some votes.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 13, 2023, 03:53:47 PM
I just realized that in Lombardia M5S joined the Center-Left list.  It did not seem to do them much good and instead gave space to the Centrist list to get some votes.

Letizia Moratti (and her lists more so) is slightly underperforming the result of Azione-Italia Viva at the parliamentary election and doing much worse than the polls suggested. What are you talking about?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: jaichind on February 13, 2023, 03:56:37 PM
I just realized that in Lombardia M5S joined the Center-Left list.  It did not seem to do them much good and instead gave space to the Centrist list to get some votes.

Letizia Moratti (and her lists more so) is slightly underperforming the result of Azione-Italia Viva at the parliamentary election and doing much worse than the polls suggested. What are you talking about?

I am sure they match pre-election polls.  My comment was more about in comparison to the 2018 result.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 13, 2023, 04:24:09 PM
I just realized that in Lombardia M5S joined the Center-Left list.  It did not seem to do them much good and instead gave space to the Centrist list to get some votes.

Letizia Moratti (and her lists more so) is slightly underperforming the result of Azione-Italia Viva at the parliamentary election and doing much worse than the polls suggested. What are you talking about?

I am sure they match pre-election polls.  My comment was more about in comparison to the 2018 result.

The M5S was going to do a lot worse than 2018 in any case for the simple reason that it is much less popular overall than it used to be at its peak so I wouldn't make much of that comparison. I think you're just looking at general trends that have little to do with the specifics of Lombardy.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 13, 2023, 04:32:29 PM
Fash Girl Winter is still going strong, it seems. Still waiting for a Dream of Spring.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Cassius on February 13, 2023, 04:44:32 PM
I had missed this but the Democratic Party has moved its primary by one week, so the vote will be on the 26th of February.

The four candidates...

Stefano Bonaccini, president of Emilia-Romagna. Notable things about him: on the more moderate liberal wing of the party, won re-election by a bigger margin than expected in 2020, has been supportive of increased regional autonomy, wants the M5S to eat sh**t.
Elly Schlein, vicepresident of Emilia-Romagna (yes really) until her election to Parliament last September. Notable things about her: very progressive, bisexual, Jewish, also a Swiss and a US citizen, left the PD in 2015 because she considered Renzi too right-wing before rejoining recently.
Paola De Micheli, Deputy. Notable things about her: blank stare well she was the vice-secretary under Zingaretti and the Minister of Transport during Conte II I guess. And she is also from Emilia-Romagna!
Gianni Cuperlo, Deputy. Notable things about him: aside from being the only non-Emilian in the race, being a complete blast from the past (he ran for this post in 2014 and not quite as a fresh new face). I am half convinced his candidacy is a deliberate meme.

Gianni Cuperlo looks like what you would get if you bred a stereotypical boring Italian centre-left politician in a lab.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 13, 2023, 05:10:40 PM
I had missed this but the Democratic Party has moved its primary by one week, so the vote will be on the 26th of February.

The four candidates...

Stefano Bonaccini, president of Emilia-Romagna. Notable things about him: on the more moderate liberal wing of the party, won re-election by a bigger margin than expected in 2020, has been supportive of increased regional autonomy, wants the M5S to eat sh**t.
Elly Schlein, vicepresident of Emilia-Romagna (yes really) until her election to Parliament last September. Notable things about her: very progressive, bisexual, Jewish, also a Swiss and a US citizen, left the PD in 2015 because she considered Renzi too right-wing before rejoining recently.
Paola De Micheli, Deputy. Notable things about her: blank stare well she was the vice-secretary under Zingaretti and the Minister of Transport during Conte II I guess. And she is also from Emilia-Romagna!
Gianni Cuperlo, Deputy. Notable things about him: aside from being the only non-Emilian in the race, being a complete blast from the past (he ran for this post in 2014 and not quite as a fresh new face). I am half convinced his candidacy is a deliberate meme.

Gianni Cuperlo looks like what you would get if you bred a stereotypical boring Italian centre-left politician in a lab.

That's more or less what he is. But again, I don't think he took himself very seriously this year.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Mike88 on February 13, 2023, 07:06:33 PM
Almost final results:

Lombardia, 9,227/9,254 counted:

54.7% Attilio Fontana (FdI, Lega, FI)
33.9% Pierfrancesco Majorino (PD, M5S, AVS)
  9.9% Letizia Moratti (A–IV)
  1.5% Mara Ghidorzi (UP)

41.7% Turnout (-31.4)

Lazio, 5,216/5,306 counted:

53.8% Francesco Rocca (FdI, Lega, FI)
33.6% Alessio D'Amato (PD, A–IV, AVS, +Eu)
10.8% Donatella Bianchi (M5S)
  1.0% Sonia Pecorilli (PCI)
  0.9% Rosa Rinaldi (UP)

37.2% Turnout (-29.4)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 14, 2023, 11:19:25 AM
A fun detail: Fontana's margin of victory was pretty much identical to 2018. Of course he went up against somewhat different coalitions each time, but one can use this as a baseline for interesting comparisons. Fontana's margin decreased most substantially in the metropolitan city of Milan, but it also went down in the neighbouring provinces of Lodi and Monza and strangely enough also Sondrio (the most rural and right-wing of all); it increased in all other provinces. It also generally decreased in larger cities and towns, while he made up ground elsewhere. Quite a few suburbs of Milan "flipped" and so did Brescia, where the candidacy of incumbent mayor Emilio Del Bono boosted the PD so hard it got more raw votes than either 2018 or 2022 despite the drastic decline in turnout.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on February 16, 2023, 06:30:22 AM
I had missed this but the Democratic Party has moved its primary by one week, so the vote will be on the 26th of February.

The four candidates...

Elly Schlein, vicepresident of Emilia-Romagna (yes really) until her election to Parliament last September. Notable things about her: very progressive, bisexual, Jewish, also a Swiss and a US citizen, left the PD in 2015 because she considered Renzi too right-wing before rejoining recently

We're reaching unfathomably high levels of based here.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 16, 2023, 07:54:48 AM
I had missed this but the Democratic Party has moved its primary by one week, so the vote will be on the 26th of February.

The four candidates...

Elly Schlein, vicepresident of Emilia-Romagna (yes really) until her election to Parliament last September. Notable things about her: very progressive, bisexual, Jewish, also a Swiss and a US citizen, left the PD in 2015 because she considered Renzi too right-wing before rejoining recently


We're reaching unfathomably high levels of based here.

I don't think she'd be up your alley, she's never said anything about kids named Ahmed in Bologna.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 17, 2023, 06:43:38 PM
Now that we're in times of elections again (the regionals in Lombardy and Lazio, then the PD primaries) I have finally gotten around to making maps.

First off, I have completed Al's last series with the only remaining party that crossed the threshold (AVS). All credit for the base map goes to him of course.

()

Not terribly surprising geography for a radical green-left party, and largely resembling PD but with more distinct urban peaks. But also a ridiculously strong result in Sardinia for some reason.


Title: Re: Italian General Election - September 25, 2022
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 18, 2023, 01:39:09 PM
And now something I had promised a while ago...

I will likely do a swing map from 2018 soon (and then at some point in the indefinite future swing maps at a more detailed level, but that will take much more time).

()

The Right improved everywhere, with weaker swings largely in constituencies anchored by large cities (Turin, Milan, and also Naples but with very different dynamics at play) and its strongest swings in the area of the country where Centre and South meet. The latter coincides with some historical MSI/AN strongholds like much of Lazio and the province of L'Aquila, but in general this funny map is quite similar to the pattern of movement from the M5S to Lega in 2019 - though the bulk of these voters further migrated to Brothers of Italy by 2022 of course.

The second best swing for the Right happened in Basilicata, which does not fit the trend I just described and could be explained away as a small Southern region doing random things, but since for whatever reason Basilicata became a centre-left stronghold in the Berlusconi era and even in 2018 it had the second worst result for the Right close behind Campania 1, it feels significant. Realignment?


()

Weird map which does show evidence of a stronger recovery in areas that 'should' vote to the left (Liguria, Campania vs. everything north of the Po) but also looks bizarre in various places. The weak result in Tuscany stands out, but even more so does Umbria registering the only decrease as it keeps trending rightwards at West Virginia speed. In a straight CDX vs CSX comparison it actually voted slightly "to the right of the country", which is quite shocking.


()

For obvious reasons this looks a lot like a mirror image of the Right's map. Seen from another point of view however it also resembles a mirror image of the Five Star Movement's pattern of support in 2013/2014, before it became a Southern-centric party. Places where the M5S was pretty strong in 2013 but much less so in 2022 include the central Adriatic coast, much of Veneto, parts of Lazio and western Liguria... a group that is fairly diverse but keeps reminding me of a certain French party's performance in certain coastal regions.

The abnormally high decline in Sicilia 2 is of course a reminder of the epic result by Sud Chiama Nord. If you're interested in what's happened of them, their Deputy Francesco Gallo sits in the mixed group while their Senator Dafne Musolino joined the Autonomist group, together with the SVP and a bunch of life Senators.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 18, 2023, 03:39:47 PM
Let's go in detail with the party swings within the Right.

()

Obviously the Fratelli d'Italia swing map is very similar to the map of overall support, given how comparatively low their 2018 result was. A breakthrough with the Lega electorate in Lombardy and Veneto and a 'return home' of what had been an AN stronghold in Lazio can be seen.


()

As noted, much of the traditonal Lega base deserted to Fratelli d'Italia. The decline gets smaller further south where the party was weaker to begin with, and hilariously enough it turns into a small increase in parts of the Mezzogiorno, of course areas where the party was basically inexistent before the late 2010's.


()

Quite a ridiculous map. The final death of the berlusconista heartland in Lombardy is on display, as is a fairly strong in Liguria that must correspond to a higher-than-elsewhere number of centre-right voters opting for Noi Moderati, the list led by Giovanni Toti. Comparatively small drops in the Marche, Abruzzo and Basilicata are surely part of why the coalition as a whole gained so much in those regions. But overall it's hard to make sense of this.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 18, 2023, 04:12:21 PM
Similarly we can look at party swings on the left.

()

Obviously what has been said for the coalition still applies to the party that dominates it, just shifted down somewhat. A fairly obvious contrast between places where the flow from PD to A/IV was stronger and those where the flow from M5S to PD was stronger. The slump in Umbria was almost a full four percentage points.


()

For reasons I don't entirely understand More Europe became a more broad-based buttress for the PD at this election, registering small improvements all across the country, often in places that are everything but a fertile ground for a left-liberal niche party, while deflating significantly in its metropolitan downtown strongholds (a movement large enough to be seen at the circoscrizione level around Turin, Milan and Rome). Once again, a pattern that had already happened at the 2019 European election.

---

I could do a virtual swing map comparing AVS with LeU as well but I am not sure. I'll accept feedback.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: MRCVzla on February 26, 2023, 04:10:30 PM
Today was the last stage of the PD leadership primary (the popular vote primary) between Emilia-Romagna presidente Stefano Bonaccini (representing the liberal wing) and his former deputy and now MP Elly Schlein (from the left-wing). First extraofficial data says Schlein leading (mostly data comes from the North and the cities) but they are now reports of Bonaccini having a landslide in the South. Stay tuned. Anyway the projections says they will be the lowest turnout for a PD primary ever (around 1.2 million votes).

Also yesterday was the party congress of the social-liberal +Europa (who was close to the 3% threshold to get full PR seats in the past September general election), in a pact between internal factions, 1 of the 2 MPs of the party, the radical Riccardo Magi is the new General Secretary (aka, the leader) while former Parma mayor Federico Pizzarotti becames the new President of the party. The direction of +Europa now is being close to the "third pole" of Azione/Italia Viva in order to get a sole "Renew Europe" joint list for next year' European elections (the test for the united "third pole" list will be in the upcoming Friuli-Venezia Giulia regional elections, later this year)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on February 26, 2023, 04:19:40 PM
Elly Schlein is the projected winner (by Bidimedia)



Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 26, 2023, 04:23:26 PM
These are really preliminary data, based mostly on results in Northern cities - which, yes, look very good for Schlein right now. Still, we should wait for the South, since many big name PD figures there support Bonaccini.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 26, 2023, 04:30:09 PM
OK, if these (very partial) regional results hold, Schlein has this and it won't even be close.



This would be the first time we have a real upset in a PD primary. Very interesting.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: FrancoAgo on February 26, 2023, 05:24:47 PM
Youtrend declared the Schlein winner


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 26, 2023, 05:28:48 PM
Bonaccini just conceded. With 80% of the votes counted, Schlein leads by 8 poins, so this is over.

This is really shocking, honestly. I was expecting Bonaccini to win handily given the amount of institutional support he had and the PD voter base's tendency to go with the "safe choice".

It's also a heartening result, not because Schlein is a particularly inspiring leader, but because Bonaccini's strategic vision would have been a complete disaster for PD. The last thing we needed is doubling down on branding PD as the "responsible grown-ups party" and opening the door back to parasites like Renzi and Calenda. At least after tonight those people are out in the cold.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Mike88 on February 26, 2023, 05:29:37 PM
Ohh... this is quite an upset.

Was turnout high? In 2019 there were 1,582,000 ballots cast.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: FrancoAgo on February 26, 2023, 05:33:06 PM
probably the turn out is at best 1/4 of that 2019


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 26, 2023, 05:37:01 PM
Ohh... this is quite an upset.

Was turnout high? In 2019 there were 1,582,000 ballots cast.
probably the turn out is at best 1/4 of that 2019

Turnout is estimated to be around 1.2M, so less than in 2019, but not that much less.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: FrancoAgo on February 26, 2023, 05:38:43 PM
i thought so low because youtrend update before of that 80% was at 250k


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Mike88 on February 26, 2023, 05:43:53 PM
Isn't there a result website or something to follow the returns?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Estrella on February 26, 2023, 05:44:12 PM
Congratulations to Italy's new social democratic party. The increasingly pathetic attempts at cosplaying as DC thirty years after their way of doing politics was completely discredited were getting kind of old.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 26, 2023, 06:06:45 PM
Like Antonio said, this result is pretty surprising (more so since Bonaccini easily led the members-only vote two weeks ago).

On a related note, the Democratic Party has been crawling back from its low point in the polls in the last few weeks while the growth of FdI (and regrowth of the M5S) has stalled for now. I hope Schlein's election is not going to blow that up.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Mike88 on February 27, 2023, 01:08:17 PM
Final results of the PD primary (https://www.partitodemocratico.it/news/primarie-pd-i-risultati-definitivi/):

53.75% Elly Schlein, 587,010 votes
46.25% Stefano Bonaccini, 505,032

  0.60% Blank/Invalid ballots, 6,580

Turnout 1,098,622


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Mike88 on February 27, 2023, 01:35:33 PM
Most voted candidate by region:


Quote
The national commission for the PD congress has released the data by region.
Schlein triumphs in 12 regions (plus abroad) and Bonaccini in 8.
The elected secretary wins all the northern regions except Emilia-Romagna, as well as the four regions of central Italy and Sicily.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 27, 2023, 02:38:11 PM
Weird map, but I guess not entirely surprising given the candidates and the big names supporting them. With that Campania result, it's clear that De Luca continues to be a major power broker in the South. Sicily is interesting. PD is much less well-implanted there so I guess that played to Schlein's favor? And while it sucks a little that the North is what carried the day for Schlein, I guess it's nice that her stronger area was the Northwest rather than the cursed Northeast.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 07, 2023, 04:19:36 AM
An update on the regional elections, of which we'll see quite a few this year.

Friuli-Venezia Giulia (2nd and 3rd of April): Incumbent Massimiliano Fedriga (Lega) is going to run again for the Right. Naturally, the main question is how large his margin of victory will be. On the centre-left PD, M5S and AVS have converged on the candidacy of Massimiliano Moretuzzo, leader of the regional autonomist party Patto per l'Autonomia, who of course also has the support of Slovenska Skupnost, the party of the tiny but not trivial Slovene minority. We don't have precise numbers because of course we don't but it's estimated at around 50,000 people; for reference SSk has always gotten between 1 and 1.5% of the vote in regional elections. Azione/Italia Viva and +Europa support Alessandro Maran, a former Scelta Civica Senator with a PCI background (lol).

Molise (25th and 26th of June): No significant update except that the date has been officially established, not coinciding with the mayoral elections which will be held in May instead.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 13, 2023, 05:54:48 AM
The regional president of the Aosta Valley Erik Lavévaz (Union Valdôtaine) resigned last month, as part of a political crisis caused by growing suggestions inside his party to switch sides and go with the right. UV is a regionalist party which is very much an institution in the Valley, and while it currently isn't the largest party in the regional council it is widely understood to be the kingmaker. The party council of UV met yesterday and they narrowly approved a motion that urges a reconsolidation of the previous centre-left majority to elect Lavévaz's successor and to reconvene the party council as soon as possible to discuss the outcome, whereas the minority proposed to automatically start dealing with the right in case the first negotiations fail (without a new council meeting). However, out of those who sit as regional councillors, six out of seven voted for the latter motion, showcasing the split inside the party.

Update: a new regional president was elected two weeks ago. Renzo Testolin of Union Valdôtaine, already interim president in 2019 and early 2020, was voted by the same autonomist-centre-left majority that supported Lavévaz. The opposition did not take part in the vote. Crisis averted?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on March 14, 2023, 03:23:57 AM
BASED! This is the first time in a while that a Jew has been in charge of a major European party (that wasn't a personal vehicle, looking at you, Zemmour)

Anyway, why did Schlein lose Emilia-Romagna? She's from there and was Vice President of the region (I assume that's the Italian equivalent of Lieutenant Governor, feel free to correct me)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Cassius on March 14, 2023, 06:11:02 AM
BASED! This is the first time in a while that a Jew has been in charge of a major European party (that wasn't a personal vehicle, looking at you, Zemmour)

Anyway, why did Schlein lose Emilia-Romagna? She's from there and was Vice President of the region (I assume that's the Italian equivalent of Lieutenant Governor, feel free to correct me)

Bonaccini is the President of Emilia-Romagna.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 14, 2023, 07:33:14 AM
BASED! This is the first time in a while that a Jew has been in charge of a major European party (that wasn't a personal vehicle, looking at you, Zemmour)

Anyway, why did Schlein lose Emilia-Romagna? She's from there and was Vice President of the region (I assume that's the Italian equivalent of Lieutenant Governor, feel free to correct me)

This depends on whether you count Zingaretti as "a Jew" (which I don't think he does himself, but part of his maternal family is Jewish and his great-grandmother was deported to Auschwitz). I also assume you are counting Sluha Narodu as a personal vehicle?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Conservatopia on March 14, 2023, 07:45:26 AM
BASED! This is the first time in a while that a Jew has been in charge of a major European party (that wasn't a personal vehicle, looking at you, Zemmour)

Anyway, why did Schlein lose Emilia-Romagna? She's from there and was Vice President of the region (I assume that's the Italian equivalent of Lieutenant Governor, feel free to correct me)

This depends on whether you count Zingaretti as "a Jew" (which I don't think he does himself, but part of his maternal family is Jewish and his great-grandmother was deported to Auschwitz). I also assume you are counting Sluha Narodu as a personal vehicle?

Don't feed the American.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on March 14, 2023, 07:56:51 AM
BASED! This is the first time in a while that a Jew has been in charge of a major European party (that wasn't a personal vehicle, looking at you, Zemmour)

Anyway, why did Schlein lose Emilia-Romagna? She's from there and was Vice President of the region (I assume that's the Italian equivalent of Lieutenant Governor, feel free to correct me)

This depends on whether you count Zingaretti as "a Jew" (which I don't think he does himself, but part of his maternal family is Jewish and his great-grandmother was deported to Auschwitz). I also assume you are counting Sluha Narodu as a personal vehicle?

Don't feed the American.

Well, you're British. You don't have any food in the first place because of "bad weather in Spain"

Regardless, nothing I wrote was incorrect. As I said, Schlein is the first person in a while to both identify as Jewish and lead an established party. "A while" is also a rather subjective time frame.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 14, 2023, 08:51:19 AM
Regardless, nothing I wrote was incorrect. As I said, Schlein is the first person in a while to both identify as Jewish and lead an established party. "A while" is also a rather subjective time frame.

I was about to write that it's hardly a while since Ed Miliband but, wait, 2015 was eight years ago (how?) and you're quite young aren't you?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on March 14, 2023, 02:27:42 PM
Regardless, nothing I wrote was incorrect. As I said, Schlein is the first person in a while to both identify as Jewish and lead an established party. "A while" is also a rather subjective time frame.

I was about to write that it's hardly a while since Ed Miliband but, wait, 2015 was eight years ago (how?) and you're quite young aren't you?

Ah. I wasn't aware Miliband identified as Jewish.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 14, 2023, 02:37:19 PM
Ah. I wasn't aware Miliband identified as Jewish.

He does (and notably, though careful never to comment directly on the reasons, refused all offers to return to the Opposition Front Bench until 2020), though in his case identification would not be important as such anyway as all of his known ancestors are Jewish.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: FrancoAgo on March 14, 2023, 05:30:15 PM
BASED! This is the first time in a while that a Jew has been in charge of a major European party (that wasn't a personal vehicle, looking at you, Zemmour)

Anyway, why did Schlein lose Emilia-Romagna? She's from there and was Vice President of the region (I assume that's the Italian equivalent of Lieutenant Governor, feel free to correct me)

This depends on whether you count Zingaretti as "a Jew" (which I don't think he does himself, but part of his maternal family is Jewish and his great-grandmother was deported to Auschwitz). I also assume you are counting Sluha Narodu as a personal vehicle?

Don't feed the American.

Well, you're British. You don't have any food in the first place because of "bad weather in Spain"

Regardless, nothing I wrote was incorrect. As I said, Schlein is the first person in a while to both identify as Jewish and lead an established party. "A while" is also a rather subjective time frame.

The Schlein is not Jewish, her father is not her mother


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on March 14, 2023, 05:33:59 PM
BASED! This is the first time in a while that a Jew has been in charge of a major European party (that wasn't a personal vehicle, looking at you, Zemmour)

Anyway, why did Schlein lose Emilia-Romagna? She's from there and was Vice President of the region (I assume that's the Italian equivalent of Lieutenant Governor, feel free to correct me)

This depends on whether you count Zingaretti as "a Jew" (which I don't think he does himself, but part of his maternal family is Jewish and his great-grandmother was deported to Auschwitz). I also assume you are counting Sluha Narodu as a personal vehicle?

Don't feed the American.

Well, you're British. You don't have any food in the first place because of "bad weather in Spain"

Regardless, nothing I wrote was incorrect. As I said, Schlein is the first person in a while to both identify as Jewish and lead an established party. "A while" is also a rather subjective time frame.

The Schlein is not Jewish, her father is not her mother

Sorry, "Etruscan"


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on March 17, 2023, 02:26:33 AM
PD recently polled above 20% for the first time since the election.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Fash Girl Winter
Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on March 24, 2023, 02:39:19 AM


Very nice, that stare at the beginning though.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 24, 2023, 06:11:22 AM
New title since winter is over, at least astronomically speaking. Politically, the winter continues, as Meloni decided to pick another culture war to inflict upon all of us. The latest one is that she decided to withdraw recognition of adoptions of children by same-sex couples, which was already in a legal grey zone as Renzi failed to have it legally enshrined in his civil unions bill. Some mayors were still recognizing them anyway, but Meloni officially put an end to it a few weeks ago. She tried to justify this obvious act of gratuitous cruelty by fearmongering about surrogacy, which is already illegal in Italy and has nothing to do with this debate anyway. Lovely stuff all around.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 24, 2023, 06:29:57 AM
New title since winter is over, at least astronomically speaking. Politically, the winter continues, as Meloni decided to pick another culture war to inflict upon all of us. The latest one is that she decided to withdraw recognition of adoptions of children by same-sex couples, which was already in a legal grey zone as Renzi failed to have it legally enshrined in his civil unions bill. Some mayors were still recognizing them anyway, but Meloni officially put an end to it a few weeks ago. She tried to justify this obvious act of gratuitous cruelty by fearmongering about surrogacy, which is already illegal in Italy and has nothing to do with this debate anyway. Lovely stuff all around.

I must be out of the loop because all I've heard about in recent times is the CGIL congress, the plans to cut taxes being developed and Bonelli's stunt where he brought rocks from the Adige river bed to Parliament, but thanks. I also thought this was all decided at the court level - did she override the Court of Cassation?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 24, 2023, 06:57:54 AM
New title since winter is over, at least astronomically speaking. Politically, the winter continues, as Meloni decided to pick another culture war to inflict upon all of us. The latest one is that she decided to withdraw recognition of adoptions of children by same-sex couples, which was already in a legal grey zone as Renzi failed to have it legally enshrined in his civil unions bill. Some mayors were still recognizing them anyway, but Meloni officially put an end to it a few weeks ago. She tried to justify this obvious act of gratuitous cruelty by fearmongering about surrogacy, which is already illegal in Italy and has nothing to do with this debate anyway. Lovely stuff all around.

I must be out of the loop because all I've heard about in recent times is the CGIL congress, the plans to cut taxes being developed and Bonelli's stunt where he brought rocks from the Adige river bed to Parliament, but thanks. I also thought this was all decided at the court level - did she override the Court of Cassation?

I'm not sure. It was mostly being done on the initiative of individual municipalities (Milan being the main one) so I'm not sure what the legal framework behind it is. It sounds like Milan is going along with it, though I heard Padova's mayor (huh!) has said he'll continue to go recognize them. If the standoff continues it will surely have to go to court at some point.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: AustralianSwingVoter on March 24, 2023, 07:36:27 AM
Bonelli's stunt where he brought rocks from the Adige river bed to Parliament

he what


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 24, 2023, 07:42:23 AM
Bonelli's stunt where he brought rocks from the Adige river bed to Parliament

he what

You come from the country of MPs bringing lumps of coal to Parliament, are you surprised?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on March 24, 2023, 07:55:46 AM
Bonelli's stunt where he brought rocks from the Adige river bed to Parliament

he what

You come from the country of MPs bringing lumps of coal to Parliament, are you surprised?
Is this on Youtube?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 24, 2023, 08:14:50 AM
Bonelli's stunt where he brought rocks from the Adige river bed to Parliament

he what

You come from the country of MPs bringing lumps of coal to Parliament, are you surprised?
Is this on Youtube?

Bonelli or the Australian MPs? I am sure both are, can't be too difficult to find.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 03, 2023, 01:59:55 PM
Massimiliano Fedriga has been re-elected president of Friuli-Venezia Giulia by a gigantic margin (though not much bigger than in 2018), a similar story to Lombardy. The Five Star Movement did terribly, polling even worse than in Lombardy, but probably the most significant highlight is that A/IV also had a disastrous result, somewhere around 2.5% being easily beaten by a coalition of cranks and anti-vax activists. It looks like Lega still got a few more votes than FdI inside the Right. Just so boring.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 04, 2023, 10:06:15 AM
On a related note, I wasn't even aware of this but Friuli-Venezia Giulia decided to hold the local elections in municipalities which are up this year together with the regionals (unlike the rest of the country where they will be held in late May... this is what being an autonomous region means). The only provincial seat up was Udine, where the Lega incumbent Pietro Fontanini led in the first round 46-40 against a centre-left candidate supported by Azione and Italia Viva but not the M5S. In 2018 Fontanini was elected by a hair in the runoff - in two weeks we will find out if he is able to do it again.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: MRCVzla on April 13, 2023, 06:29:42 AM
The Azione-Italia Viva alliance has imploded... or at least the Calenda' idea of a "single liberal Renew Europe party", Renzi' Italia Viva rejected the idea of dissolve his party into that new subject and Calenda leaked the papers of the internal negotiation denying that in case of merging, both Azione and IV parties remain active. Italian media claims this as a "divorce", for now they still have merged groups at the Parliament and have the will to continue the electoral alliance if the climate of the relationship is restored.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 13, 2023, 08:12:03 AM
The Azione-Italia Viva alliance has imploded... or at least the Calenda' idea of a "single liberal Renew Europe party", Renzi' Italia Viva rejected the idea of dissolve his party into that new subject and Calenda leaked the papers of the internal negotiation denying that in case of merging, both Azione and IV parties remain active. Italian media claims this as a "divorce", for now they still have merged groups at the Parliament and have the will to continue the electoral alliance if the climate of the relationship is restored.

I've heard that if they split the parliamentary factions each would become too small to form its own group and both would have to sit in the mixed group and lose a lot of funding, which might be an incentive to stay together even as an alliance of convenience... in any case all I have to say is that I am deeply amused by all this.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 14, 2023, 02:32:52 PM
Update: today Calenda tweeted that Renzi tried to scam him and that he runs Italia Viva "like an Oriental absolute monarchy" after it was reported that Renzi had insulted Calenda in private, Renzi said on the radio that trashing the party merger was a unilateral decision of Calenda and that he was very disappointed because it had no political or ideological motivations (Calenda claims the opposite of course), and then Calenda announced Azione and Italia Viva are going to run separately in 2024. Lol, lmao.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 14, 2023, 03:08:06 PM
Two bald men screaming 'it'sa my comb!' at each other: fantastic.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 14, 2023, 03:44:35 PM
Two bald men screaming 'it'sa my comb!' at each other: fantastic.

The two biggest pricks in Italian politics discovering the other of them is a prick - marvellous.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on April 14, 2023, 03:44:45 PM
Bonelli's stunt where he brought rocks from the Adige river bed to Parliament

he what

You come from the country of MPs bringing lumps of coal to Parliament, are you surprised?
Is this on Youtube?

Bonelli or the Australian MPs? I am sure both are, can't be too difficult to find.




Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Mike88 on April 14, 2023, 04:11:04 PM
Two bald men screaming 'it'sa my comb!' at each other: fantastic.

The two biggest pricks in Italian politics discovering the other of them is a prick - marvellous.

Wait, Renzi is bald now?? 8) ;)


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: xelas81 on April 14, 2023, 04:27:14 PM
So Is Renzi more likely to crawl back to center-left coalition than Calenda?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 14, 2023, 05:29:00 PM
Two bald men screaming 'it'sa my comb!' at each other: fantastic.

The two biggest pricks in Italian politics discovering the other of them is a prick - marvellous.

Wait, Renzi is bald now?? 8) ;)

Calenda isn't either, but metaphors are cool like that. Though this reminds me both Letta and Zingaretti are pretty balding (and Bersani too), maybe the PD has a strong preference there.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 14, 2023, 05:31:23 PM
So Is Renzi more likely to crawl back to center-left coalition than Calenda?

No, if anything you could find rumours about him partnering with Berlusconi (or what will remain of Berlusconi's political faction at any rate) at some point in the future.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 16, 2023, 05:16:33 AM
No, if anything you could find rumours about him partnering with Berlusconi (or what will remain of Berlusconi's political faction at any rate) at some point in the future.

I wonder if he thinks he can just take over what's left of that vote when the old creep dies.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 16, 2023, 07:11:09 AM
No, if anything you could find rumours about him partnering with Berlusconi (or what will remain of Berlusconi's political faction at any rate) at some point in the future.

I wonder if he thinks he can just take over what's left of that vote when the old creep dies.

Taking over what's left of the "moderate" vote that was parked with Forza Italia and uniting it with his fanclub under an organization dedicated to dunking on both sides would be the dream scenario for Renzi, surely?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 16, 2023, 07:29:55 AM
No, if anything you could find rumours about him partnering with Berlusconi (or what will remain of Berlusconi's political faction at any rate) at some point in the future.

I wonder if he thinks he can just take over what's left of that vote when the old creep dies.

Taking over what's left of the "moderate" vote that was parked with Forza Italia and uniting it with his fanclub under an organization dedicated to dunking on both sides would be the dream scenario for Renzi, surely?

Exactly. I expect him to be lurking around a certain Milanese hospital with a pillow and a determined expression.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 17, 2023, 11:30:50 AM
As I had anticipated, yesterday and today there was the mayoral runoff in Udine. The results are out and incumbent Fontanini was defeated by Alberto De Toni 53-47, so that is a pick-up for the centre-left. A harbinger of what's to come in May, or a fluke? Who knows.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 19, 2023, 06:30:33 AM
Since it is less than a month till the municipal elections and the lists and candidates have been finalized I should post a rundown in the immediate future, although this cycle is probably the least high-profile of the five. In partially related news we have some Molise regional polling, most of which takes as a given that the hideously unpopular incumbent Donato Toma will not be renominated by the right. A PD-M5S alliance on the centre-left should be competitive but is shown to be on the losing side in most scenarios.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 27, 2023, 11:05:34 AM
As promised, here I am for my regular municipal election rundown. Part 1.

Once again special status regions are going Their Own Way, so in addition to FVG which has already passed, Trentino-Alto Adige and the Aosta Valley will have the first round of municipal elections on May 21 and Sicily and Sardinia will have it on May 28 and 29. Comuni in the rest of Italy will vote on May 14 and 15, as always for all of these the eventual runoff would be two weeks after the first round.

CATANIA (May 28/29)
The previous incumbent Salvo Pogliese was elected Senator with FdI last September so he will not run again. After various deliberations and competing partisan proposals the Right converged on the ex assessore Enrico Trantino, while PD, M5S and AVS have chosen Maurizio Caserta, professor of political economy at the University of Catania. Azione-Italia Viva were supposed to run Lanfranco Zappalà, also supported by a "Democrazia Cristiana" that is not the "Democrazia Cristiana Sicilia" of Cuffaro (you can't make this stuff up really) but Calenda vetoed him so things are unclear now. Also in the run are our old friends of Sud Chiama Nord and various independent candidates, but they're unlikely to make a splash. As a reminder in Sicily you just need 40% to avoid a runoff - history and some sparse polling suggest Trantino can clear the bar, but it's unlikely to be a blowout like 2018.

BRESCIA (May 14/15)
The extremely popular PD incumbent Emilio Del Bono was not eligible for a third term but was already elected regional councillor with a landslide of preferences two months ago. Vying to replace him for his political side is his deputy Laura Castelletti, also supported by SI, EV and A/IV. The Five Star Movement is instead running separately, supporting writer Alessandro Lucà (together with Unione Popolare and some communists). The Right is united behind Fabio Rolfi, also a former deputy mayor and regional councillor. I can't find race polling but if the election is going to be a referendum on the outgoing administration Castelletti should have little trouble.

LATINA (May 14/15)
This is a crazy story if there ever was one. Damiano Coletta was elected in 2016 in a rather strange manner, then he was re-elected in 2021 despite losing the first round by a significant amount and despite the right-wing coalition getting an absolute majority of votes for city council (denying Coletta a majority prize and turning him into a lame duck). However the regional tribunal found irregularities in the first round and ordered the election to be repeated in twenty-two precincts in 2022 and the office to be vacated. The rerun wasn't enough to swing the first round and since the runoff was not affected by the court decision, Coletta could return to the mayoralty. At that point though the right-wing majority in the city council simply passed a motion of no confidence in him precipitating a snap election. Perhaps as a result of electoral fatigue, there are only two candidates this year: Coletta, supported by the centre-left plus M5S, and councillor Matilde Celentano for the right.

ANCONA (May 14/15)
I was going in order of population but I decided to skip Vicenza and Terni to get directly to the only regional seat voting this year... I am actually shocked Ancona has fewer than 100k people, but anyway. The incumbent mayor Valeria Mancinelli (PD) is not eligible after winning twice with a huge margin. The PD is running to replace her assessora Ida Simonella, but while she has the backing of A/IV the rest of the 'progressive' forces are entirely splintered - M5S (Enrico Sparapani), EV (Roberto Rubegni) and SI (Francesco Rubini, also supported by a plethora of forces on the extreme left) are all going separately. On the right, Simonella's main opponent is Daniele Silvetti, a lawyer and provincial coordinator of Forza Italia. There is one poll and it has Simonella and Silvetti neck and neck. I should note that Ancona is one of few cities which have only had centre-left mayors since direct elections began in 1993, so a flip would be quite notable.

PISA (May 14/15)
Ending part 1 with my "second city" (that is, where my university is). Incumbent Michele Conti became its first directly elected centre-right mayor in 2018, an incredible result in a university town in the heart of the Red Regions. PD, M5S and AVS are running against him Paolo Martinelli, previously provincial president of ACLI (Italian Workers' Christian Associations). Azione/IV are naturally going alone with ex councillor Rita Mariotti but the couple polls we have suggest she should be easily beaten for third place by the radical left candidate Ciccio Auletta. The same polls have Martinelli narrowly beating Conti.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Zinneke on April 29, 2023, 06:31:04 AM


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 29, 2023, 09:38:31 AM
https://twitter.com/frankiehinrgmc/status/1647206590867464192

The man, the artist! Always relevant:




Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on May 01, 2023, 10:45:37 AM
Part 2. Other cities in random order depending on what I find more interesting or notable.

VICENZA (May 14/15)
Rightist incumbent Francesco Rucco is seeking a second term against PD regional councillor Giacomo Possamai, supported by A/IV but not the M5S, which is going alone with Edoardo Bortolotto. The polls for this election are pretty tight, like the 2018 election was. Strangely enough there was no Five Star candidate here last time, which makes Vicenza a very rare place where the party will "improve" no matter what.

TREVISO (May 14/15)
Another medium Veneto city with a rightist incumbent (Mario Conte) running again... in this case the PD candidate (Giorgio De Nardi) is a local entrepreneur and not only the M5S (Maurizio Mestriner) but also Azione-Italia Viva (Nicolò Rocco) are not supporting him. Presumably a lot harder for the opposition.

SIRACUSA (May 28/29)
The largest city I have not covered yet. The incumbent Francesco Italia, deputy mayor from 2013 to 2018, then elected mayor as a centre-left independent and now a member of Azione since 2019, is seeking a second term but is again lacking the support of any other established party. PD and M5S and AVS are running together with Renata Giunta, an ex coordinator of the anti-Mafia association Libera, while Italia Viva supports Francesco Italia's predecessor Giancarlo Garozzo, who was in the PD during his term but joined Renzi's party upon its foundation. On the other side the Right coalition supports former assessore Ferdinando Messina but the UdC's Edy Bandiera looks poised to also conquer many votes. Being Sicily there's also a candidate for Sud Chiama Nord. One poll was published and while Giunta and Messina were the top two it showed an extremely divided field, so anything could happen.

SIENA (May 14/15)
Speaking of divided fields... The incumbent Luigi De Mossi had a very narrow win in 2018 to become Siena's first directly elected mayor from the right, in a city that is even more in the heart of the Red Regions than Pisa, but his coalition decided not to run him again and so he's thrown his support behind Italia Viva's Massimo Castagnini. The Right's candidate is instead Nicoletta Fabio, among other things a previous rector of the magistrate of the contrade [i.e. president of the organism that rules their activity and helps the Palio organization]. Azione is running separately from IV with Roberto Bozzi and M5S is also running alone with Elena Boldrini, and both of them are outside of the PD-led coalition of ex assessora Anna Ferretti. There's also an independent candidate, Fabio Pacciani, who had fairly strong support in the one poll we have, just behind Ferretti and Fabio. Though as I alluded to in the beginning, that means not even 20%. I think the centre-left can be confident in a runoff but once again, things are unpredictable.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on May 13, 2023, 09:01:58 AM
Part 3, sort of, just to highlight two funny situations I have been thinking about.

Massa is another Tuscan city which elected a centre-right mayor for the first time in the contemporary era in 2018, Francesco Persiani. However, a few months ago the city council voted a motion of no confidence in Persiani, as he lost the support of parts of his coalition, chiefly Fratelli d'Italia. As a result, he is running for re-election with FI and Lega but not FdI and Noi Moderati (lol), who are instead running Marco Guidi, previously a member of the Persiani administration. On the left we have PD, AVS and A/IV together for Enzo Ricci but the M5S going separately, with UP, for Daniela Bennati.

In Brindisi the centre-left incumbent Riccardo Rossi fell out with the PD and is running again with only the support of Europa Verde, which he joined last year... while the PD and the M5S are in a coalition together against him, supporting Roberto Fusco. On the right there is unity in support of Giuseppe Marchionna, a true veteran of politics - he has already been mayor of Brindisi from 1990 to 1992 when he was still in the PSI. Much hilarity on the whole.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on May 15, 2023, 11:37:47 AM
There's still a lot to count and no sure results yet (although we can already say Treviso is a right-wing hold) but turnout overall at the local elections was 59%, which is slightly down compared to 2018 but I believe somewhat higher than all cycles since.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on May 15, 2023, 02:56:21 PM
Coletta is massively going down in Latina, ending his trajectory in as peculiar a manner as it started, while Brescia is a comfortable centre-left hold like I had predicted. In smaller provincial seats the Right holds Sondrio and Imperia. Everything else will go to a runoff or is still uncertain. The overall "vibe" doesn't seem to favour significantly one side or the other, honestly.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on May 16, 2023, 02:59:23 PM
Now we have official results about everywhere for the local elections.

Brescia and Treviso as I said above are easy holds for the left and right respectively; Vicenza and Ancona are going to a runoff after a very competitive first round, while Pisa is also going to a runoff but the incumbent Michele Conti was only a dozen votes away from clinching an absolute majority. Also as I said above, Latina is returning to its right-wing roots with Coletta spectacularly failing to even cross 30%, though this is not as big of a flop for an incumbent as Riccardo Rossi in Brindisi, who somehow managed to get fourth and last beaten by independent Pasquale Luperto (there will be an "ordinary" left vs right runoff with Fusco and Marchionna). Siena will also have an ordinary runoff but as anticipated both Fabio and Ferretti start from low totals, and the same goes for Massa between Persiani and Ricci. On the other hand the PD candidate Josè Maria Kenny was shut out of the second round in Terni...

In terms of lists all recent trends have been confirmed: continued irrelevance of the Five Star Movement, a Third Pole struggling to break through at all, Fratelli d'Italia as the clear leader of the Right, the Democratic Party having the most loyal electorate.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: FrancoAgo on May 16, 2023, 05:47:38 PM
As usual
Mayoral elections, municipality over 100k inhab., and regional capital

Latina
Right 70,7%
Center-left+M5S 29,3%

Brescia
Center-left 54,8%
Right 41,7%
an other 2 candidates 3,5%

Ancona
Right 45,1% to Run-off ->51,7% (gain the endorsement of a 2,2% candidate)
Center-left 41,3% to run-off ->48,3%
Left 6,1%
M5S 3,6%
an other 2 candidates 3,9%

Terni
Right 35,8% to run-off ->45,4%
Center-(right) 28,1% to run-off (he owned a online university and the city soccer team)->54,6%
Center-left 21,9%
M5S+Left 10,8%
an other 3 candidates 3,4%

Vicenza
Center-left 46,2% to run-off-> 50,5%
Right 44,1% to run-off->49,5% (gain the endorsement of a 2,6% candidate)
an other 5 candidates 9,7%

add sicilian municipality

Catania
Right 66,2%
Center-left +M5S 24,6%
Centrist-populist-autonomist 4%
an other 4 candidates 5,2%

Siracusa
Right 32,2% to run-off
Centrist (Azione) 23,9% to run-off
Center-left+M5S 19,4%
Center-right (FI dissident) 9%
Centrist (IV) 8,3%
Localist 3,6%
an other 2 candidates 3,6%




Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on May 28, 2023, 02:33:41 PM
Local election runoffs today (and tomorrow), turnout is significantly down compared to the first round. It seems somewhat stronger in Sicily, where municipalities are voting for the first round instead.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on May 29, 2023, 09:18:28 AM
Local election polls have closed. Turnout in the runoffs in the end was a little below 50%, which is indeed significantly lower than the 59% of the first round. The first results look somewhat favourable to the right, but still mixed with results like the centre-left ahead in Vicenza (a conservative city if there is one).


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on May 29, 2023, 11:00:38 AM
The Right has indeed won all major contests (Ancona, Brindisi, Massa, Pisa, Siena) except for Vicenza. What strange times we live in. On the other hand the CSX had some success in smaller towns, flipping major suburbs like Cologno Monzese near Milan or Torre del Greco near Naples. Speaking of suburbs, the industrial centre of Campi Bisenzio next to Florence elected a M5S mayor against the PD which had ruled for a very long time there.

Counting in Sicily and Sardinia has barely started and will probably continue till tomorrow.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on May 30, 2023, 10:21:28 AM
In Sicily Trantino kept Catania for the right in a landslide, incumbents were re-elected in Trapani (Tranchida, PD) and Ragusa (Cassì, independent supported by FdI in 2018 but by centrist parties this year) while in Siracusa the incumbent Italia (Azione) qualified for a runoff with the rightist candidate leaving PD-M5S to dry. Overall little change.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: omar04 on May 30, 2023, 02:23:18 PM
Does anyone know what party if any the mayors of Castelfranci and Bugnara are affiliated with? They endorsed DeSantis a couple of days ago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ron_DeSantis_2024_presidential_campaign_primary_endorsements#Current_3


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: FrancoAgo on May 30, 2023, 04:18:27 PM
both should center right
Bugnara mayor has a past in the Democrazia Cristiana (in the 80s)
Castelfranci mayor was FI county councilor in 2004-2008


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on May 30, 2023, 05:00:17 PM
Does anyone know what party if any the mayors of Castelfranci and Bugnara are affiliated with? They endorsed DeSantis a couple of days ago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ron_DeSantis_2024_presidential_campaign_primary_endorsements#Current_3

Castelfranci and Bugnara are among the villages where at least one great-grandparent of De Santis was born (they were all born in Italy), I'm sure these endorsements are just a way to gain notoriety.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: omar04 on May 30, 2023, 05:03:23 PM
both should center right
Bugnara mayor has a past in the Democrazia Cristiana (in the 80s)
Castelfranci mayor was FI county councilor in 2004-2008

Thank you, if I may ask where do you find this kind of information? I couldn't find anything searching myself.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Mike88 on May 30, 2023, 05:05:21 PM
Is there a national tally with results by coalition and parties, with gains and losses? That would be interesting.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: FrancoAgo on May 30, 2023, 05:07:58 PM
both should center right
Bugnara mayor has a past in the Democrazia Cristiana (in the 80s)
Castelfranci mayor was FI county councilor in 2004-2008

Thank you, if I may ask where do you find this kind of information? I couldn't find anything searching myself.

there is this https://amministratori.interno.gov.it/amministratori/index.html


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on May 31, 2023, 01:11:47 PM
Is there a national tally with results by coalition and parties, with gains and losses? That would be interesting.

I doubt there is one, and in any case I don't think it would be very informative since not all municipalities had last voted in 2018, a lot of votes in these elections go to always changing local lists or joint lists, and most small municipalities don't have party lists at all.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 03, 2023, 03:40:56 PM
Now that (the vast majority of) local elections are over, it's time to make an update on the Molise regional election, which will be held on June 25 and 26.

As predicted the Right has ditched the extremely unpopular incumbent Toma and selected in his place the mayor of Termoli Francesco Roberti (FI), who is also supported by Italia Viva, while on the other side PD and M5S formed a coalition to support the mayor of Campobasso Roberto Gravina (M5S). The only other candidate is a random independent, so in essence this is a two-way fight between the mayors of the two largest towns in the region. Still the only poll I could find shows a very close race. I am not setting my hopes up too much, but if this became the first left-wing regional pickup since 2015 it would be hilarious. And someone would definitely make the joke "the left can only win in regions that don't exist".


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 06, 2023, 04:07:26 PM
Apparently Massimo D'Alema (former President of the Council, long-time watchers will be familiar with the character he is) is finally being investigated for aggravated corruption regarding one time he acted as a broker for a sale of Italian weapons to the Colombian government. Yay, I love this country.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: FrancoAgo on June 06, 2023, 05:03:13 PM
italian weapons to Colombia??
this is a news, some has a idea of what weapons we sell to Colombia?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Mike88 on June 06, 2023, 05:49:48 PM
I'm not sure how it is in Italy, but doesn't it surpass the statute of limitations? If the crime was committed while he was PM, of course.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: FrancoAgo on June 06, 2023, 06:05:08 PM
I read a few on line , the "crime" it's for a 2022 operation, probably they sell nothing, just tried


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 07, 2023, 02:50:25 AM
I'm not sure how it is in Italy, but doesn't it surpass the statute of limitations? If the crime was committed while he was PM, of course.

D'Alema was last President of the Council before I was born and last had a ministerial job fifteen years ago, I should have been clearer but this happened while he was a private citizen in 2022.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: MRCVzla on June 10, 2023, 02:15:50 PM
Roberto Speranza has announced today the dissolution of Articolo Uno within PD. A political association called "Compagno è il mondo" (Partner is the World) will custody the "political cultural ideal" of Art.1 in PD.



Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 11, 2023, 03:05:34 AM
Articolo 1 was created in response to Renzi's triangulation antics and never really had a purpose from 2019 on (indeed almost always ran in the same list as PD and I think by now most of its founders had rejoined the Democratic Party) so all I can say is "finally".


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 12, 2023, 03:54:16 AM
ATTENTION TO EVERYONE: AT THE AGE OF 86, SILVIO BERLUSCONI HAS DIED.

Truly the end of an era, strangely appropriately so since we are in the first year of the first united right-wing government led by someone other than him. RIP.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Logical on June 12, 2023, 05:35:30 AM
He's joining the big bunga bunga party in the skies now. RIP


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 12, 2023, 06:52:50 AM
He's joining the big bunga bunga party in the skies now. RIP

I just realized Berlusconi was born in the same year Horace de Vere Cole (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horace_de_Vere_Cole) - the person who first made "bunga bunga" a catchphrase - died.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 12, 2023, 07:36:25 AM
That map of the Forza Italia list vote at the fateful 1994 election again:

()


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 12, 2023, 08:30:04 AM
That map of the Forza Italia list vote at the fateful 1994 election again:

()

A map that makes a lot of sense for the most part but is also rather unusual in some ways. It's a good thing the Internet was in its infancy back then because just imagine how insufferable the discourse online about Mirafiori and Cinisello Balsamo would have been...


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 12, 2023, 08:55:52 AM
The striking thing about it to me is always that it is genuinely not like anything seen in Italy before, but that it nevertheless, as you say, has a certain hideous logic to it. And of course we saw it in various forms right up until Forza Italia collapsed as a major force and will - probably - never see it again.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 13, 2023, 04:11:11 AM
Speaking of elections, Berlusconi's death is going to cause a by-election in the Lombardia - 06 (Monza) Senate constituency. He won it with a little over 50% of the vote in 2022 so I don't expect this to be competitive at all, but sometimes very low turnout has caused weird things to happen.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Cassius on June 13, 2023, 06:16:08 AM
Any reason for Sicily being titanium FI in 1994? No MSI tradition (although I can see some deep shades in Lazio where the MSI was pretty strong iirc)?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 13, 2023, 08:22:32 AM
Any reason for Sicily being titanium FI in 1994? No MSI tradition (although I can see some deep shades in Lazio where the MSI was pretty strong iirc)?

Sicily had a pretty strong MSI tradition in fact, but was also one of the most conservative regions overall with mad margins for the Christian Democracy over the Communist Party in northern Sicily in particular. I can't think about one surefire explanation but I believe that Antonio Martino (ex-PLI and one of the most important allies of Berlusconi in founding Forza Italia) hailing from Messina was an important factor. I also note that the strong result for FI in Sicily corresponds and is probably correlated to a weak result for the PPI compared to regions like Calabria or Basilicata.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 13, 2023, 08:54:13 AM
The schism in the Sicily DC over the Second Mafia War will also have been a factor.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on June 13, 2023, 08:59:01 AM
That map of the Forza Italia list vote at the fateful 1994 election again:

()
What's with Apulia?


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 13, 2023, 09:26:11 AM
That map of the Forza Italia list vote at the fateful 1994 election again:

()
What's with Apulia?

Forza Italia was not able to run a list there because of some screw-up when collecting signatures, although I do not remember the details.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 13, 2023, 12:43:01 PM
Yes, they cocked their paperwork up. Which, in a way, was another portent of the near future.


Title: Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
Post by: Estrella on June 13, 2023, 06:45:20 PM
Since we're talking about maps, the 90s and Sicily, here's perhaps the funniest (or at least most stereotypical) electoral map in existence. Behold, Mario Segni's 1993 referendum on replacing PR with FPTP for Senate elections telling the First Republic political class and associated criminals to get fxcked:

()

Highest % for Yes: Lega heartlands of upland Veneto and Lombardy
Lowest % for Yes: Palermo