Talk Elections

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-battleground-tracker-arizona-florida-texas-immigration-and-key-senate-races/

Sinema 46
Ward 38

Sinema 49
Arpaio 29

Sinema 45
McSally 37

Cruz 50
O'Rourke 40

Scott 46
Nelson 41

Can't believe the GOP is in such a bad position in AZ.

I'm kinda skeptical about the FL number but otherwise, these seem pretty believable.

Sounds about right.

I got all excited until I saw it was YouGov. Definitely a helpful data point nonetheless.

It's virtually a wash, Dems win AZ and GOP wins FL.

Trump with a higher approval in Florida than Arizona and Texas? No way he’s at 52/48 in FL and if you reverse that number, Nelson has a lead like that PPP poll.

The FL numbers we are seeing in various polls are starting to get legitimately worrying. Is Nelson really going to blow it? In a midterm with a Republican President, he should be a shoo-in for re-election.

The other ones are about as expected.

Anyone notice that Sinema always seems stuck at 45/46 on average?

Scott is not tied with Hispanic voters in Florida. We need a high quality poll there and this isn’t one.

Trump approval is also not 52/48 in Florida if it's 50/50 in Texas.

Along with just principle, this is why I don't trust multi-state polls.

Rick Scott has twice performed well with the Hispanic vote in Florida. I hope that now it will be 3 times.

Ye. I don't think shell have trouble with 4+5% tho lol

You could make the same claim about Scott.

TX looks about right, but the AZ number looks a bit D friendly, and the FL number looks R friendly. Perhaps if the undecideds are R-leaning in AZ and D-leaning in FL, these numbers make sense.

Some interesting numbers here:


Arizona:

Tries to support Donald Trump as much as they can: 33%
Is conservative but independent from Donald Trump at times: 17%
Is progressive but tries to work with Donald Trump at times: 22%
Tries to oppose Donald Trump as much as they can: 28%

Florida:

Tries to support Donald Trump as much as they can: 36%
Is conservative but independent from Donald Trump at times: 20%
Is progressive but tries to work with Donald Trump at times: 20%
Tries to oppose Donald Trump as much as they can: 24%

(Not asked for Texas)

Scott didnt perform well with Hispanics either time, he won because of the white vote.

Are you sure about AZ? IIRC, this definitely isn’t the first time Sinema was leading McSally by a margin not too far from the +8.

FYI, this is NOT a CBS poll. It's a YouGov poll conducted for CBS.

Arizona: Likely D
Florida: Tossup/Tilt D
Texas: Likely R

Big if true, since Arizona seems more likely to go Democratic than Florida (with an incumbent) at this point. I still think Nelson edges this out, but Scott is overperforming expectations. If Hillary was president, this race could be only lean Republican at best.

I don’t buy Trump approval being +4 in FL, unless either suddenly FL has turned from a light red to a decently red state or Trump approval is well above water nationwide.

Not in 2014, according to the exit poll (link (http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/FL/governor/)). He lost their vote bigly - about as bad as Romney. Perhaps he will track Trump's numbers and lose them by even more this time around.

McCain, Flake, Arpaio

With a flammable mix like that how could a party come to an agreement?

After the primary there will be some coming together.  But it will be difficult.

Once the unity ticket come together, Nelson should beat Scott, when Graham becomes nominee

Trump has endorsed Apairo, Sinema hopefully has him as an opponent

With Cruz solidly at 50 in multiple pollsit looks like Robert Francis O'Rourke is well on his way to being an msnbc host after his loss

Dreamer

Trump has not endorsed in this race.

McConnell has thrown his weight behind McSally.  This will either help or could boomerang to Ward’s benefit.  

Arpaio will not be the nominee

He was an underdog anyways.

I warn you chasing Republicans like Bondi down to drive them out of theaters and restaurants is not going to help Democrats in Florida.  New York maybe.  Not Florida.

Sinema is almost certainly going to win.

Look, we almost are all arguing about a slight Nelson or Scott win one way or the other, but I think we can come to an agreement and say that Nelson is yet again quite lucky, and in basically any other non blue wave national environment, Scott would be winning by several points on election night.

Translation: “I’m skeptical of the number that is bad for my preferred candidate, but everything else seems good!”

Look, Scott leading by 1-3 is bad for my candidate, but I still find it believable. In fact, I think if an election were held tommorow, Scott would win by about 2 points. I still think Nelson wins by like a point in the end, but my point is that Scott leading does not mean that I automatically think it is fake because I don't like the result, but Scott leading by 5 seems like a bit much.

1) Beto is my preferred candidate and I’m saying Cruz+10 is believable
2) It’s perfectly reasonable to be skeptical of a poll with Trump approval at +4 in FL

And the ideological count was like 19 point spread between liberal and conservative. Texas and Arizona's were half that. What did the exit polls look like in 16?

the hipocrisy is baffling. calling beto his real name when u wont to eduardo?

At least he's gone by his middle name his entire life, O'Rourke didn't become "beto" until he ran for office.

()

Did he run for president of his kindergarten class?

Joe Arpairo is a Trump and he endorsed Trump for prez

Makes sense as we are still in primary season and Sinema has locked down the unanimous support of AZ Democrats.

I doubt the FL lead holds up for Scott, Latinos are gonna cote for Nelson

Why doesnt Lying Ted use his real name Rafael? Also...why doesnt he tell us he was born in Calgary?

Nelson is clearly DOA and Sinema is a lock. They both cancel each other out.

calm down the boi grew up in el paso not texarkana

There’s reason to be skeptical of all of these numbers considering it’s a multistate YouGov poll, tbf

double lie, no way around it lol

Reminder for noobs:
Quinnipiac poll of Ohio Senate, 6/27/10:
Lee Fisher (D) - 42%
Rob Portman (R) - 40%

PPP poll of Ohio Senate, 6/26/10:
Lee Fisher (D) - 40%
Rob Portman (R) - 38%

Rick Scott is a well-known and somewhat popular figure in Florida so it shouldn't come as a surprise that, as of the present moment, FL-Sen appears to be a battleground but there's a case to be made that this state of affairs will evaporate after Labor Day once people start paying attention. In the end, Rick Scott has many liabilities, Bill Nelson is a popular incumbent and we're still in a Blue Wave environment.

Many of you are too young to remember the 2010 midterms or didn't follow politics at the time. I remember the polling breaking hard against Democrats when the campaigns kicked off in earnest. If you're a Republican, you shouldn't be optimistic about the midterms, even if there's plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Trump's odds of being re-elected.

edit: Florida sample is 43 R/39 D/15 I. This doesn't invalidate the poll, possible midterm electorate will look like this, but it's worth mentioning.

Will this guy ever be infracted for his constant lying and making up facts?

Lee Fisher was ahead of Portman due to fact he was Strickland's Lt Gov. QU also had Strickland ahead of Portman in 2016 Senate race, which they got wrong again

For sure, this poll (and other similar polls) do not mean that Nelson will lose. As you note, early polls are not particularly accurate, and Nelson will have to screw up big time to lose if, as expected, it is a D wave year.

But it is nonetheless concerning that we have at this point a slew of (low quality) polls, most of which show Scott slightly leading Nelson in FL. These things can both be true at the same time.

Yes, Scott is well known as the Governor, but Nelson should be well known as well, and supposedly he was/is popular (hence his previous easy re-elections).

What we should want to see is what we see in other states - Dem incumbents generally with leads, even in much redder states. Sure, what we see is partially a reflection of Scott's strength and not just Nelson's weakness, but Nelson really needs to step up his game.

Scott has spent 20 millions by now and has the airwaves to himself. That's the main reason he might have taken a lead.

Right you are Lyndon! What people on this forum seem to be forgetting is the strategy both candidates are using for this election. Rick Scott is blazing the airwaves with his stacks of cash, to some effect, while Bill Nelson is doing what he did in 2012, waiting until the end of summer/beginning of fall before pouncing with a blitzkrieg of ads. While Nelson is in a worse position than in 2012, with the governor coming after him with gobs of money, Nelson still has an environmental advantage and the advantage of being able to do well in the North. The polls this far out are going to keep fluctuating between the two candidates, but in the summer, expect a huge gain for nelson.

Great news for Scott if the YouGov poll says that 52 % of Florida voters approve Trump's leadership and  if 77 % of voters believe Florida's economy is doing well.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/nbv3bzmxq0/cbs_20180624_FL.pdf

Go Sinema!