Talk Elections

Sinema: 48%
Ward: 38%

Sinema: 49%
McSally: 38%

Sinema: 57%
Arpaio: 32%

Dems +7 in Generic Ballot in State

McSally: 30%
Ward: 28%
Arpaio: 21%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/AZpolls/AZ180617/NBC%20News%20Marist%20Poll_Written%20Summary%20of%20Findings_AZ_June%202018.pdf (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/AZpolls/AZ180617/NBC%20News%20Marist%20Poll_Written%20Summary%20of%20Findings_AZ_June%202018.pdf)

I can't help but think the Democrats' fortunes in the state are being charged by Trump's immigration woes. The state is trending blue faster than we thought, and Trump could be to blame.

Enough polls to call this race Lean D, at least for now.

In fact even closer to Likely D than Tossup. Though I'll wait until after the primary.

Its probably a "perfect storm" kind of thing. The state has been trending Democratic and was only won by Trump by 4 percentage points. The Bluewave+Sinema's strength+The Teacher's strike+Doug Ducey's low approval's are all combining to form the perfect chance to turn this state blue, not just in 2018, but in 2020 as well

Which is why most of the prognosticators have kept it at Toss UP.

McSally will certainly close the margin after the primary, the question is by how much. Despite this, Sinema's leads are yuge enough that I'm comfortable calling this lean D for now.

Seems like Arizona is competing with Georgia and Texas on which state will flip blue the fastest

Generic ballot suggests a D+9-10 environment nationally in both Arizona and Florida.

Arizona will flip decades before Texas, that's not even a question.

Anyway, I look forward to the media forgetting everything McSally said in the primary, painting her as a moderate, and saying that Arizona Republicans boosted their chances enormously by picking such a reasonable, principled, moderate, electable candidate. ::)

If Sinema wins, it would be 30 years after DeConcini won his third term and the very last time a Democrat won a Senate race in Arizona.

Seriously, though, Arizona 2018=Colorado 2006.

I would've thought the AZ GOP could put forth better candidates than the likes of "moderate" McSally, theorist Ward, and toxic Arpaio who lost his seat by double digits in a GOP state and in a neutral year too.

To be fair, Sinema is even more egregious than McSally on that front. Self-described Prada Socialist to self-described Blue Dog, lol.

Shes the bizarro Gillibrand, going from left-wing to center. I wonder if she will continue being a bluedog in the senate or if she will reveal her left-wingness once again.

Likely D, bordering on Safe D.

What if Joe Arpaio wins in a huge upset in the primary?

Those of us in AZ have known that AZ has been competitive for years, but national democrats never gave us the light of day instead they wasted millions in Ohio. Dems spent a fraction here compared to other swing states and AZ was closer than NC

Sinema is a strong candidate, I still want to know about the Ducey election though.

Not shocked that Ward has been polling better/same  against Sinema than McSally has, McSally has gone off the rails and has essentially become a kelli ward herself. It’s one thing to be kelli ward but it’s another to be kelli ward with the backing of McConnell

I think even if the blue wave “dies down” a bit, it will still hit AZ hard, lot of people unsafisfied with GOP leadership here(especially ducey which is why I want to know more about his race)

It won't happen, but it would be titanium D.

It seems like there is very little difference between Ward and McSally these days.

Marist released the numbers officially. They're all the same. We get cross tabs though!

Sinema wins 21% of Republicans against Arpaio

Sinema beats McSally amongst Latinos by a whopping 60-26%

Also against McSally...

Winning White college grads 56-37%

Tied with men at 43%

Winning women 54-34%

Winning whites 44-43%

Sinema winning the suburbs 54-36%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/AZpolls/AZ180617/Toss%20Up%20Questions_NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll_Arizona%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_June%202018.pdf#page=1 (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/AZpolls/AZ180617/Toss%20Up%20Questions_NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll_Arizona%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_June%202018.pdf#page=1)

This deserves its own comment...

Sinema is beating McSally in Maricopa County 53-36%



Interestingly enough, the poll shows that WARD does the best amongst all three in the county, losing by only 40-50%

Arpaio, unsurprisingly, loses it 31-61%

I feel more confident about Arizona than I do about Nevada, and I feel pretty confident about Nevada.

Our Queen is alive!

They keep polling Senate race, no Governor polls in AZ or FL or NV

Let's go Donnelly and Bredesen!!!

Flake is an unpopular figure and so is Trump with Latinos. That's why FL gov is more competitive than WI gov

McSally is starting to look like Bruce Braley if she wins the primary. Arizona looking like Colorado 2006/Wisconsin 2010/Iowa 2014.

It's Trump's problem with Latinos, that's why TX is coming into play as well, and Rick Scott's dropoff in the polls against Nelson

Trump's approval is at -15 in Maricopa County.

That's the race then. Sinema has a base from her house seat in Suburban Maricopa, and plenty of prior name rec in Phoenix over the Tuscon based McSally. If Sinema is over 50 in a lean/tilt R county  that has a majority of the states population, she wins. Period. Even if nearly all the undecideds are Republicans who are pissed with McSally and are voting for Wrad/Arpaio and will come together post-primary, Sinema still probably wins. I definitely think this seat is going to snap right to Lean D in all the professional ratings post-primary.

I would guess a big reason for the GOP's swift collapse in AZ is that unlike other states, the AZGOP coalition is a virtual monoculture, almost entirely based on well-to-do suburban whites/retirees in the Phoenix and Tucson metros. Maricopa County (Phoenix) is 62% of the state's population, and Pima County (Tucson) is another 15%. That leaves less than a quarter of the state's population outside the primary metros, and even in that small portion, much of the population is Hispanics in border areas or Native American reservations. Simply put, if the AZGOP starts bombing with wealthy white suburbanites (as polls and special elections including AZ-08 have indicated they will), there's just nowhere else in the state they can make up those votes from. They're just ed. Compare that to Pennsylvania, where the PAGOP bombed with wealthy white suburbanites in SEPA and Pittsburgh but were able to make that up from the small, blue collar metros like Scranton and the Lehigh Valley and fairly well-populated (at least compared to AZ) rural areas, because PA is not nearly as centralized population-wise as AZ is, and I don't think any other state is. Because of this, a nationwide decline for the GOP with a specific group can be greatly magnified in Arizona, and I think that is what will happen.

You also can't ignore Yuma County. It has nearly 200,000 people and swung HARD to the Democrats in 2016 (from 55.5-42.9 Romney to Trump 47.5-46.4).

It'll be basically impossible for the GOP to win AZ if the trends in AZ continue, and it's not just the trends in Maricopa.

Yuma County is gone for the GOP in the 2018 and 2020 elections and beyond.

That’s quite a swing.

Ward is only down 2 in the primary. I think she can do it!

It's not even that.

Trump alienated educated whites that kept Arizona red.

There's always a tradeoff.

Trump may have gained the Republicans blue collar whites, but he's losing their educated whites.