Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Zaybay on July 08, 2018, 10:19:15 pm



Title: Gravis Marketing(Arizona Governor Race): A close race
Post by: Zaybay on July 08, 2018, 10:19:15 pm
Gravis Marketing

With Garcia:
Garcia(D)- 42%
Ducey(R)- 41%

With Farley:
Farley(D)- 39%
Ducey(R)- 43%

Trump Approval:
46/50

Writeup: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Arizona_July_3_2018_1.pdf (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Arizona_July_3_2018_1.pdf)


Title: Re: Gravis Marketing(Arizona Governor Race): A close race
Post by: Bagel23 on July 08, 2018, 10:24:44 pm
Sleeper race?


Title: Re: Gravis Marketing(Arizona Governor Race): A close race
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on July 08, 2018, 10:28:28 pm
Still Lean R, but the refusal of Democratic strategists to meaningfully target this race remains puzzling.


Title: Re: Gravis Marketing(Arizona Governor Race): A close race
Post by: Wesley Troopner on July 08, 2018, 10:28:34 pm
Fascinating race. Little to no coverage compared to races like GA but Garcia has consistently led Ducey in polling (granted, they're mostly his own internals).

I honestly think, with a consistent if narrow lead and a turnout advantage, Garcia has a very good chance of pulling this one out.


Title: Re: Gravis Marketing(Arizona Governor Race): A close race
Post by: YH Stands with Sanchez! on July 08, 2018, 10:30:27 pm
Ouch.


Title: Re: Gravis Marketing(Arizona Governor Race): A close race
Post by: MT Treasurer on July 08, 2018, 10:42:41 pm
No surprise, I expect this one to be one of the closest races of the night.


Title: Re: Gravis Marketing(Arizona Governor Race): A close race
Post by: Cory Booker on July 08, 2018, 10:58:54 pm
Ducey may lose after all😀


Title: Re: Gravis Marketing(Arizona Governor Race): A close race
Post by: TarHeelDem on July 08, 2018, 11:00:36 pm
A statewide race in a briskly leftward trending state is competitive? What a twist!


Title: Re: Gravis Marketing(Arizona Governor Race): A close race
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on July 08, 2018, 11:05:45 pm
Iíve been calling this race a tossup for a while now. Glad to see a poll confirm that, even if itís Gravis.


Title: Re: Gravis Marketing(Arizona Governor Race): A close race
Post by: IceSpear on July 08, 2018, 11:11:16 pm
I'm thinking the gap between this and the Senate race will be nowhere near as huge as a lot of people (especially the pundits) think it will be.


Title: Re: Gravis Marketing(Arizona Governor Race): A close race
Post by: Georgia Is A Swing State on July 09, 2018, 12:01:24 am
I like Garcia. I saw him at a press conference with Abrams and Gillum. I hope he makes it through the primary, he will shock a lot of people on election night.


Title: Re: Gravis Marketing(Arizona Governor Race): A close race
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on July 09, 2018, 12:19:56 am
I just want to point out 17% of Clinton voters are undecided vs just 7.5% of Trump voters in this poll.


Title: AZ: Gravis Marketing: Gov. Ducey (R) and Garcia (D) locked in tight battle
Post by: Tender Branson on July 09, 2018, 12:20:28 am
New Poll: Arizona Governor by Gravis Marketing on 2018-07-02 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2018/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=420180702232)

Summary: D: 42%, R: 41%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Arizona_July_3_2018_1.pdf)


Title: Re: Gravis Marketing(Arizona Governor Race): A close race
Post by: Zaybay on July 09, 2018, 12:11:37 pm
I just want to point out 17% of Clinton voters are undecided vs just 7.5% of Trump voters in this poll.
Wow, really?
Now that I think about this race more and more, Im starting to see Garcia as a favorite to win. Ducey is just too hampered by too many obstacles, the changing state demographics, the swings in the Phoniex metro, the teachers strike, and Trump. He is disliked by many and has little personal appeal. Garcia has that appeal, and has charisma leaking out of him, like a Gillum but without the controversy.
I wonder if the pundits will at least move this race to tossup.


Title: Re: Gravis Marketing(Arizona Governor Race): A close race
Post by: yeah_93 on July 09, 2018, 03:02:20 pm
I just want to point out 17% of Clinton voters are undecided vs just 7.5% of Trump voters in this poll.
Wow, really?
Now that I think about this race more and more, Im starting to see Garcia as a favorite to win. Ducey is just too hampered by too many obstacles, the changing state demographics, the swings in the Phoniex metro, the teachers strike, and Trump. He is disliked by many and has little personal appeal. Garcia has that appeal, and has charisma leaking out of him, like a Gillum but without the controversy.
I wonder if the pundits will at least move this race to tossup.

It's a Gravis poll...


Title: Re: Gravis Marketing(Arizona Governor Race): A close race
Post by: Cory Booker on July 09, 2018, 03:37:10 pm
Its not a big deal with 6 months left, but the trend line with Latinos is bad news, in a state like AZ and FL for Trump. Those are must wins for Putnam and Ducey and they are tied in polling.


Title: Re: Gravis Marketing(Arizona Governor Race): A close race
Post by: Not_A_Man on July 09, 2018, 07:41:15 pm
>G R A V I S