Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: #KamalaIsACop on July 10, 2018, 12:59:37 pm



Title: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: #KamalaIsACop on July 10, 2018, 12:59:37 pm
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/564129f1e4b07ae26518a05c/t/5b43b41d8a922da7a735db24/1531163678634/Harstad+Alaska+Survey+on+Governor%27s+Race.pdf
Dunleavy 32
Walker 28
Begich 28
Undecided 12%
 Dunleavy also leads GOP primary 
Dunleavy 43
Treadwell 17 
Other 3%
Undecided 24%
in head to head match ups Dunleavy trails both candidates by significant margins
Walker 49%
Dunleavy 41%
Undecided 11%

Begich 50%
Dunleavy 41%
Undecided 9%


Title: Re: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on July 10, 2018, 01:20:46 pm
Democratic polling firm.


Title: Re: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: Prolocutor Bagel23 on July 10, 2018, 01:22:49 pm
Drop out Begich!


Title: Re: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: Former Senator Zaybay on July 10, 2018, 01:28:02 pm
Drop out Begich!
Why do you want Begich to drop out? Walker is deeply unpopular, a previous GOPer, and a conservative on most issues. Begich is stronger than Walker, and better. If anyone should drop out, its Walker. He had his chance, and he f*^&ed up. Let the better man win.


Title: Re: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: olowakandi on July 10, 2018, 01:30:43 pm
Go Begich😀


Title: Re: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: IceSpear on July 10, 2018, 04:53:54 pm
Drop out Begich!
Why do you want Begich to drop out? Walker is deeply unpopular, a previous GOPer, and a conservative on most issues. Begich is stronger than Walker, and better. If anyone should drop out, its Walker. He had his chance, and he f*^&ed up. Let the better man win.

Walker is so unpopular that he's easily leading a Republican in a heavily Republican state.


Title: Re: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: Titanium R OH-01 on July 10, 2018, 05:14:11 pm
Drop out Begich!
Why do you want Begich to drop out? Walker is deeply unpopular, a previous GOPer, and a conservative on most issues. Begich is stronger than Walker, and better. If anyone should drop out, its Walker. He had his chance, and he f*^&ed up. Let the better man win.

Walker is so unpopular that he's easily leading a Republican in a heavily Republican state.

I mean, so is Begich. I think all that really says is Dunleavy is a surprisingly bad candidate.


Title: Re: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: Former Senator Zaybay on July 10, 2018, 05:14:56 pm
Drop out Begich!
Why do you want Begich to drop out? Walker is deeply unpopular, a previous GOPer, and a conservative on most issues. Begich is stronger than Walker, and better. If anyone should drop out, its Walker. He had his chance, and he f*^&ed up. Let the better man win.

Walker is so unpopular that he's easily leading a Republican in a heavily Republican state.
He is unpopular, that is true. He is in the top ten of the most unpopular governors in the USA. This speaks more to the weakness of Dunleavy being a poor candidate and the flaws in the GOP coalition than Walker's ability.


Title: Re: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on July 10, 2018, 05:21:05 pm
Obviously a state Senator like Dunleavy doesnít have nearly as much name recognition as Walker or Begich, so that probably also explains his underwhelming numbers. Itís also a state that is trending Democratic.


Title: Re: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: UncleSam on July 10, 2018, 05:22:07 pm
Itís Begichís fault if Dunleavy wins, not Walkerís. Walker is the incumbent governor, he has a hell of a lot more right to run for his own seat than some ex-Senator. Begich shouldíve waited if he wanted to run for Governor, or shouldíve run for his old Senate seat instead.


Title: Re: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: #KamalaIsACop on July 10, 2018, 06:06:35 pm
Obviously a state Senator like Dunleavy doesnít have nearly as much name recognition as Walker or Begich, so that probably also explains his underwhelming numbers. Itís also a state that is trending Democratic.

if that were the case then undecideds would be up and Begich and Walkers numbers would be far lower


Title: Re: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on July 10, 2018, 06:31:56 pm
if that were the case then undecideds would be up and Begich and Walkers numbers would be far lower

I wouldnít say that 12% is a small percentage of undecideds, especially if they lean Republican... but thatís kind of beside the point. Citing this poll as evidence for Dunleavy being a terrible candidate makes about as much sense as referring to Steve Pearce's internal polls in which he was "only" losing by 2 and 4 points, respectively, to prove that Lujan Grisham is a "terrible" candidate (which many people here actually did). Iím not saying that Dunleavy is a particularly good recruit, but the fact that heís "only" led by 4-8 points in all three Democratic-leaning polls so far doesnít make him a joke candidate. I personally think this race is a Tossup, perhaps with a slight R tilt. AK polls were pretty accurate in 2014, so it would be nice to get a non-internal poll here for once.


Title: Re: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: BeTo In DiSaRrAy on July 10, 2018, 11:07:10 pm
Go Begich😀


Title: Re: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: Frenchy on July 11, 2018, 03:47:39 pm
Hate to be that person, but the database shows Dunleavy and Begich at 28 and Walker at 32.


Title: Re: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: #KamalaIsACop on July 11, 2018, 03:54:02 pm
Hate to be that person, but the database shows Dunleavy and Begich at 28 and Walker at 32.

thats weird a mod should fix that


Title: Re: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: The Saint on July 13, 2018, 01:14:04 pm
Drop out Begich!


Title: Re: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: Noted Irishman on July 13, 2018, 01:41:18 pm
Alaska polling is bad in general (harder to poll it than Titanium R Nevada), so you can probably assume any one of these candidates is leading by up to 10 points right now.


Title: Re: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: #KavanaughForPrison on July 13, 2018, 03:26:06 pm
Remember when the final Alaska poll in the 2016 Presidential Election had Hillary Clinton winning by 4?


Title: Re: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: olowakandi on July 13, 2018, 06:49:03 pm
I think Walker holds on


Title: Re: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28
Post by: jrk26 on July 16, 2018, 05:12:39 pm
I think Walker holds on

I doubt it, due to vote splitting.  It's odd, since Walker was a Republican, but I guess he became a de facto Democrat due to the fact that he ran against a Republican in 2014, so he's seen as a Democrat even though he was a Republican and was endorsed by Sarah Palin.