Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Terry the Fat Shark on July 11, 2018, 03:34:36 AM



Title: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on July 11, 2018, 03:34:36 AM
https://themissouritimes.com/52223/new-polling-projects-hawley-with-slight-edge-over-mccaskill-right-to-work-failing-in-august/

Poll conducted by Remington Research on behalf of the Missouri Times, should note it appears they weighted it based on likely voter turnout in November.

Hawley - 48%
McCaskill - 46%
Undecided - 6%


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: crazy jimmie on July 11, 2018, 04:35:33 AM
Oh no :(


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: pbrower2a on July 11, 2018, 06:33:37 AM
Will 2018 be a Democratic wave year? If so, then Claire McCaskill holds on.


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: JG on July 11, 2018, 06:51:55 AM
This one will be a nailbiter until the end.


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Gass3268 on July 11, 2018, 07:20:57 AM
Not bad coming from a rightwing rag and Republican pollster.


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: ON Progressive on July 11, 2018, 07:22:12 AM
Right-to-work-for-less failing 56-38? Nice!


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: BudgieForce on July 11, 2018, 07:27:46 AM
Remingtons last poll also showed Hawley +2 f.y.i


https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=286806.0



Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: AtorBoltox on July 11, 2018, 07:36:06 AM
Assuming this poll is accurate, undecideds in a blue wave year will of course go to McCaskill. Lean D


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Lachi on July 11, 2018, 08:16:29 AM
Remington, and no change from last one, so make of it as you would.


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: BudgieForce on July 11, 2018, 08:20:54 AM
I know it's not gospel, but I take solace in knowing 538 rates Remington a "C".


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: KingSweden on July 11, 2018, 08:32:50 AM
Remington, and no change from last one, so make of it as you would.

I make of that a race that has been close all along and is still close


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Zaybay on July 11, 2018, 08:46:32 AM
The fact that this pollster showed Hawley +2 last time shows that there is no momentum on ethier side, at least according to this pollster. If thats true, the undecideds will break D and Claire should win.
If even the most R friendly pollster is showing a lackluster result for Hawley, then this race is tilt/lean D.


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Free Bird on July 11, 2018, 08:59:09 AM
wtf even is this race anymore


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on July 11, 2018, 09:04:27 AM
She's running a 3rd term, it will be difficult for her to win


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Skye on July 11, 2018, 10:34:52 AM
The fact that this pollster showed Hawley +2 last time shows that there is no momentum on ethier side, at least according to this pollster. If thats true, the undecideds will break D and Claire should win.
If even the most R friendly pollster is showing a lackluster result for Hawley, then this race is tilt/lean D.

What? It's July. It's way too soon to come to that conclusion based on this poll only. Also, it's not like Remington is a top quality pollster either...


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Canis on July 11, 2018, 11:25:59 AM
this is good actually Remington has consistently shown Hawley +4


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Free Bird on July 11, 2018, 01:15:25 PM
The fact that this pollster showed Hawley +2 last time shows that there is no momentum on ethier side, at least according to this pollster. If thats true, the undecideds will break D and Claire should win.
If even the most R friendly pollster is showing a lackluster result for Hawley, then this race is tilt/lean D.

This race cannot be called anything but a tossup if the polling is this inconsistent.


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Zaybay on July 11, 2018, 01:25:19 PM
The fact that this pollster showed Hawley +2 last time shows that there is no momentum on ethier side, at least according to this pollster. If thats true, the undecideds will break D and Claire should win.
If even the most R friendly pollster is showing a lackluster result for Hawley, then this race is tilt/lean D.

What? It's July. It's way too soon to come to that conclusion based on this poll only. Also, it's not like Remington is a top quality pollster either...
The fact that this pollster showed Hawley +2 last time shows that there is no momentum on ethier side, at least according to this pollster. If thats true, the undecideds will break D and Claire should win.
If even the most R friendly pollster is showing a lackluster result for Hawley, then this race is tilt/lean D.

This race cannot be called anything but a tossup if the polling is this inconsistent.
Remington is the only pollster that even has Hawley in the lead anymore. It even has an R on the wiki, showing this is a bit biased to Hawley, and even then, he has lost his +4 lead.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2018 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2018)
Polling has had this race at tied, to Mccaskill +4, and events that we already know are going to transpire(Rising medical costs, the SC confirmation which has shown to moralize more D voters in polling, the tariffs, etc.) will tilt this race to Mccaskill. Waves develop near the end of a cycle because thats when the undecideds move towards the party. In 2010, and 2014, it was the rising cost of Obamacare that moved them over to the Rs in September and October. The R needs a lead to be able to withstand, which is why FL, ND, and IN are more vulnerable.

Funny enough, this was the race I was sure of that we would lose. I even thought we should just triage this. But Hawley turned out to be a terrible candidate to easy to attack, and the Missouri R party is still having a bit of turmoil. It will be interesting to see what her margin is, but Im pretty confident she will win.


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Doimper on July 11, 2018, 01:32:52 PM

::) ::) ::)


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Rhenna on July 11, 2018, 02:52:02 PM
But I thought the Dem advantage was almost completely gone?!?!? Lean D.


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on July 11, 2018, 03:01:13 PM
Aren't these guys right biased?


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: KingSweden on July 11, 2018, 03:02:25 PM

Yes


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Zaybay on July 11, 2018, 03:06:03 PM
Yep, which is why these guys have been one of the few pollsters to show a Hawley lead.


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on July 11, 2018, 03:34:22 PM
this is good actually Remington has consistently shown Hawley +4

Actually their last poll in April had McCaskill +4

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?type=src&source_id=257


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Zaybay on July 11, 2018, 03:41:43 PM
this is good actually Remington has consistently shown Hawley +4

Actually their last poll in April had McCaskill +4

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?type=src&source_id=257

I have found no such poll on any website. Are you sure this poll even exists? No one on this forum posted about this, and Remington has no information on this.


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on July 11, 2018, 03:43:35 PM
I didn't find that one, I found an older one which had Hawley up by 3

https://www.scribd.com/document/362045635/MO-Sen-Remington-Research-for-Missouri-Scout-Oct-2017


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: ON Progressive on July 11, 2018, 03:47:10 PM
this is good actually Remington has consistently shown Hawley +4

Actually their last poll in April had McCaskill +4

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?type=src&source_id=257

I have found no such poll on any website. Are you sure this poll even exists? No one on this forum posted about this, and Remington has no information on this.

The poll exists, but it isn’t Remington. It was this Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies poll: https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article209527234.html


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: IceSpear on July 11, 2018, 05:04:00 PM
RATINGS CHANGE:
Safe D -> Safe R

This Republican pollster showing a margin of error lead for Hawley in July seals McCaskill's fate.


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on July 11, 2018, 08:22:26 PM
this is good actually Remington has consistently shown Hawley +4

Actually their last poll in April had McCaskill +4

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?type=src&source_id=257


I have found no such poll on any website. Are you sure this poll even exists? No one on this forum posted about this, and Remington has no information on this.

The poll exists, but it isn’t Remington. It was this Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies poll: https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article209527234.html

Here is a link to a list of all the Missouri polls:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?fips=29&class=1

It shows the 4/20/18 poll as a Remington poll.  If it is not, I do not know why it is so listed.


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on July 11, 2018, 08:30:29 PM
RATINGS CHANGE:
Safe D -> Safe R

This Republican pollster showing a margin of error lead for Hawley in July seals McCaskill's  fate.


You know you don’t have to be sarcastic.  No one is suggesting such a swing.  We all know you think the seat is safe D because you anticipate a full blown D wave.

Some other folks who project might reasonably disagree and believe it is a toss up seat.


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Ebsy on July 11, 2018, 08:34:14 PM
The TJP/MoScout poll is locked behind a private subscription service but was leaked on twitter, so if you can't find it, that is why.


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: ON Progressive on July 11, 2018, 08:59:25 PM
this is good actually Remington has consistently shown Hawley +4

Actually their last poll in April had McCaskill +4

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?type=src&source_id=257


I have found no such poll on any website. Are you sure this poll even exists? No one on this forum posted about this, and Remington has no information on this.

The poll exists, but it isn’t Remington. It was this Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies poll: https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article209527234.html

Here is a link to a list of all the Missouri polls:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?fips=29&class=1

It shows the 4/20/18 poll as a Remington poll.  If it is not, I do not know why it is so listed.

The Wikipedia page shows it is a Missouri Scout poll, and so does the newspaper article I linked. I don't know why it's listed as a Remington poll either.


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: IceSpear on July 11, 2018, 09:35:59 PM
RATINGS CHANGE:
Safe D -> Safe R

This Republican pollster showing a margin of error lead for Hawley in July seals McCaskill's  fate.


You know you don’t have to be sarcastic.  No one is suggesting such a swing.  We all know you think the seat is safe D because you anticipate a fool blown D wave.

Some other folks who project might reasonably disagree and believe it is a toss up seat.

Lol, what? I think it's a toss up.


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on July 11, 2018, 09:53:27 PM
Heidi and McCaskill could be replaced by GOP senators in their states; however, the net change of women in the Senate may not change due to Rosen and Sinema's chances


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: krazen1211 on July 11, 2018, 11:01:29 PM
Hawley will win.


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Doimper on July 11, 2018, 11:21:48 PM

Moore in the lead!


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on July 12, 2018, 12:03:05 AM
RATINGS CHANGE:
Safe D -> Safe R

This Republican pollster showing a margin of error lead for Hawley in July seals McCaskill's  fate.


You know you don’t have to be sarcastic.  No one is suggesting such a swing.  We all know you think the seat is safe D because you anticipate a fool blown D wave.

Some other folks who project might reasonably disagree and believe it is a toss up seat.

Lol, what? I think it's a toss up.

I did not mean “fool” blown D wave.  I meant “full” blown D wave. I am sorry. I did not mean to mock you.  I guess you will deem it a Freudian slip.

I am glad we agree it is toss up for now.


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: BudgieForce on July 12, 2018, 12:23:25 AM

Fixed that for ya


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: Suburban Republican on July 12, 2018, 04:53:20 AM
Ugh. When are we going to get a quality poll out of Missouri?


Title: Re: MO-Remington: Hawley +2
Post by: BudgieForce on July 12, 2018, 08:31:34 AM
Ugh. When are we going to get a quality poll out of Missouri?

It is apparently illegal for decent pollster to poll in Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana, Montana and North Dakota. So I've resigned myself to the fact that its Gravis and Surveymonkey till November.