Talk Elections

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/07/31/scott-edges-nelson-by-3-in-senate-race-poll-534695 (https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/07/31/scott-edges-nelson-by-3-in-senate-race-poll-534695)

Scott 47
Nelson 44

Great poll.

Still a Tossup.

The last poll these guys did was of Southern Hispanic Floridians, and got Scott+3, so I am not really inclined to put much stock in a B- Pollster.

Mason-Dixon had Romney ahead by 6 in the I-4 corridor in 2012 (he lost it by 6), so yeah. They're not worth taking seriously.

Scott has a MoE lead. He's also outspending Nelson 3 to 1. I think it'll be close, but the national environment will be enough to carry Nelson to the finish line.

A lot of these polls have Trump’s approval way higher in Florida compared to other states he did similarly in such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Wonder if this is true or like 2016 where Iowa’s poor Hillary showing foreshadowed her problems in Wisconsin yet pollsters missed it. If he’s 40-42% nationally you’d expect closer to 42-43 in Florida not 46-47.

Yeah, you'd think he'd be up by more given the spending discrepancy.

Florida has fairly unique demographics that aren’t replicable elsewhere, though, unlike Iowa’s similarities to its neighbors.

That said this is plainly a Tossup race. It’ll be interesting to see what the numbers do once the spending discrepancy goes down

14 weeks to the Election. And btw I'm not buying all the Media Crap about the National Environment at this Point. We know how that turned out in 2016. Democrats in Florida have to first show that they can win Races in Florida in a MidTerm. They haven't done that at all.

Race is a TOSS UP but I wouldn't entirely be shocked if Scott pulls this out. Time to sent different people to Washington.

Still a tossup, but for the moment, it looks like Bill Nelson is the most vulnerable senate Dem this cycle. Manchin and Tester have better chances to win reelection. Donnelly, McCaskill and Heitkamp are in equally positions.

Has your kiddie diddler conceded yet?

Well, this is the first midterm for a Republican president in about 12 years. It hard to say democrats cant win in a Florida midterm when the only recent history is when Obama was president.

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You say as Democrats have been over preforming in the entirety of 2017 and 2018, including in races in FL, where they have won 2 seats from Rs, and have defended vulnerable ones by increasingly larger margins.

I think that the reason Scott is ahead is the money discrepancy. Even though Nelson has dough, hes not using it, where as Scott is practically burning it. If Scott is only leading by 2-3 in a rather poor pollster that has favored him the entire election, then I think this is tilt-D.

TBF the last Mason Dixon poll did have it Nelson +1 but that was before Scott entered I
Believe

Yeah, this feels accurate. Hard to see the race as being better than a tossup, probably tilt R if we're being fair.

lol

all polls had hillary winning in michigan and wisconsin, let's not ever take any poll seriously

Wake up Bill come the frig on!

You are hilarious. Who cares about State Legislature Races? Not me. A General MidTerm Election Vote is vastly different than winning some Special Elections. Democrats still haven't proved that they have fixed their MidTerm Turnout Problem they had in 2010 and 2014. The RNC has catched the Democrats in 2014 & 2016 with their GOTV Operations and they may yet save a lot of vulnerable Republicans in Congressional, Senate and Governor Races around the Country incl. Florida because of that.

The Dems haven't fixed their midterm turnout problem, the young and ethnic minorities who protested Trumps victory, are the ones whom are economically depressed, unemployed or underemployed

TBH, I think the Main Reason why Democrats are doing reasonable well right now is because the Republican Base is half asleep. That explains Democrats being only down 4 in SD-GOV or 2 ahead in GA-GOV. The Question then becomes: How can Republicans & Trump energize their Base. One way to do it is indeed doing a Govt. Shutdown over the Border Wall.

Once the Republican Base gets energized & excited these big Battleground Governor, Senate Races as well as the Congressional Ballot Test will start even out somewhat and then Nelson could be in big trouble in this Race here.

Tossup race.

Nelson will have to earn reelection.

The Parkland shooting is not changing minds either.

Im very sorry to break it to you, but in most studies and surveys, the Republicans are as enegized as they were in 2016, 2014, and 2010. The key difference is that the Democrats are now more energized, and thats a problem when they have a larger base.

The Indie vote, that Rs have won in midterms and presidential elections, has also swung D, and is what is allowing Democrats to win in odd areas by large margins. A shutdown/borderwall conflict may energize more Rs, but it will also push off more Is and energize more Ds. The best strategy for Rs, as Mitch pointed out, is to do nothing, let the anger subside and let the Ds become less motivated. Of course, that didnt work out.

This is probably the most frustrating Senate race of this cycle.

That is of course a typical result for Florida. Marco Rubio won many heavily Hispanic districts in Dade County in the last Florida Senate election.

Rubio also won by 8 points, in a close race like this I'm not sure how usual Republican leaning Hispanics will vote.

Sour grapes.

Not exactly, this gives my team blue a small window inside the gears and cogs of this race, and shows that we could still eek out with a last minute bombardment instead of completely ditching it. If the lead was out of the moe by now, Nelson would be abandoned, but seeing that Scott is barely ahead and only shifted the race 3-4 points after huffing and puffing like the wolf, shows that Nelson has a very good chance of eeking it out if he makes a last minute push with everything he and the national party has got. Scott's lead size really matters in the war room.

The problem is that with his status as an incumbent and an astronaut in a Democratic year, he should not have to rely on $.

He looks and acts old.

If a voter voted for Rubio in 2016, why would that voter not tend to be a Scott voter.   That does cause the old man a problem.  The fact he has to rely in any way on his status as an astronaut just shows how old he is.

Even tho Scott supported Trump in the 2016 primary, he has a separate personal image that has become attractive over the years.

Mason-Dixon used to be a decent pollster (before cell phone polling became a thing); seems like they never really adapted properly to it.

These are all fair points which is why scott has a very solid chance at victory and  nelson has to count on a blue wave giving him a friendlier electorate than 2016, peeling off some moderates who are turned off about the gun issue, and taking more hispanics, bevause I know some black republicans who were for obama just because he was black and hopefully there is some affinity among hispanics and rubio like this that Nelson will be able to peel off. These are all very possible things for Nelson to do in order to overcome this challenge and win another term, but they are hard and Nelson's campaign is not where it needs to be. He is running a campaign like a 90s Florida and it is making me more concerned by the day.

THE RCP AVERAGE OF SIX POLLS IS SCOTT +1.2.

I still rate it as toss up, but hopeful.

The gender gap Is amazing.

Men Scott +21
Women Nelson +15

Must be different conversations in barber shops and beauty salons.

It may be tilt R today, but I still think it becomes a tossup as the campaign goes on. But I'm a pessimist :P

Personally, I believe only 2 of those 6 polls are worth considering based on pollster credibility: the NBC/Marist and CBS/YouGov polls. That shows Scott ahead by half a point, which is of course no meaningfully different than the +1.2 result from the last 6 polls. Nevertheless, garbage pollsters are garbage pollsters - and even if they end up being right, it doesn't mean they were right because they knew what they were doing.

At any rate, I was merely commenting on the s[inks]ttiness of Mason-Dixon in general: not the specific result. We don't get many polls from them these days and therefore not many opportunities to remind people that they're now a garbage pollster. It's obvious that this is a close race. I would point out that at this point in an election cycle, fundamentals generally are a better indicator of performance than polling.

Can anyone tell me the nature of Nelson’s campaign.  Is he being very energectic with several events everyday.  Or is campaigning like an old man with one or two events and then rest.

More of the second.

A little odd that they are one of the non cell phone pollsters and they are one of the pollsters that found Clinton up in all of their 2016 polls of  FL :P

You can’t apply a presidential electorate to a midterm election. Millions of Floridians who voted for Rubio or Murphy won’t bother to vote this year because there’s no President on the ballot. My favorite illustration of how this works is that Scott Brown won no more votes in 2010 winning a senate race than McCain won while losing Massachusetts in a landslide in 2008.

But beside that, there are other reasons. Plenty of people voted for Rubio to be a check on an expected President Clinton. Plenty of others voted for Rubio because they felt the Republican Party was best aligned with the interests of the Cuban American community. In 2018, Trump has given both groups of voters to reconsider their past choices.

I would say a bit more of the first than the second, but it is a combo of both. To be honest, the Nelson campaign has not been asleep, or forgetting about its voters. Most of that comes from a Politico article that caused Atlas to go insane. The next day, Nelson released an ad in Spanish, and Atlas was silent of that fact.

Also, I dont see whats wrong with reminding voters who you are. Nelson is a rather....forgettable senator. In a growing state, whats wrong with reminding the electorate that you are an astronaut? Bredesen is still introducing to voters, as is Heitkamp. Were only starting the mid campaign phase, so attack ads are not really necessary.

Is Nelson lackluster? Yes. Is he giving up the seat and campaigning in the 90s? No.

Poll shows Cramer +4 - "ND is too Republican/polarized for Heitkamp to win, will Heitkamp be the only Democratic Senator who loses on election night?, even Bredesen might be more likely to win at this point"

Poll shows Scott +4 - "Obvious FL-SEN 2006/2012/VA-GOV 2017 redux, Likely/Safe D once Nelson starts running ads, Nelson is clearly playing 10D chess, Connie Mack 2.0, Mack and Harris were ahead this point in 2006 and 2012 too!, Scott only won by 1 in GOP wave years"

Except for maybe the occasional ad, I haven't heard much about Nelson down here.

Then again, I am in Republican-firm SWFL and all attention is on the gubernatorial primary right now.

To preface this, I'm in Broward County.
Ive seen ads against Rick Scott, but I dont think I've see any ads directly in support of Bill Nelson. I have noticed the amount of anti Rick Scotts ads increasing in recent weeks though.

He is keeping his powder dry for the home stretch I feel, to go all guns blazing once Scott's message starts running dry.

SCHUYLKILL SCOTT

Right now, I’d say this race is still a Tossup, albeit, with a small but decisive edge for Rick Scott.

You know, now that you mention it, I think I recall an ad like that, too. Haven't seen many, though.

If Nelson wants to come away with a win he's going to have to do it dirty. For some inexplicable reason Republicans in Florida give absolutely no mind to Rick Scott's past. Nelson needs to do anything and everything he can to swing every undecided voter to his corner. I'm sorry but the guy is nothing more than a crook and I detest every minute that he hold office in Florida.

Senator Rick Scott.

You're back!!

Sounds good.

Did you support Hillary in the ‘16 primary.  If so do not complain about crooks!

Do you think if schuylkill scott wins he be a one termer or will he run for reelection in 2024?

I'm heading back to Tally tomorrow. I'm not going to miss the deluge of Graham, Greene, and Levine ads, though the Gillum ad where he literally begs the audience for money was hilarious.

Honestly I'd rather have Scott retire, have DeSantis take on Nelson, and have Bondi as Governor. But things didn't work out that way. But to answer your question, Scott's going to be DOA in 2024, especially if Trump is still President. He doesn't strike me as a natural legislator. He's a much stronger administratively in an executive position.

A. lmao if you would rather have DeSantis than Scott as your nominee

B. Regardless of what you think Scott's fate would be in 2024 if he wins in 2018, do you think he will run again in 2024 or retire?

A. Underestimate DeSantis at your own risk. He's got the money, the staff talent, the President's support, and the increasingly enthusiastic embrace of the RPOF who have seen the writing on the wall.

B. If Trump is reelected and manages to serve out eight years, which is 50/50, then 2024 will be a very rough campaign for Scott. The fact that he ran for Senate as his term expires to me signals that he's interested in staying in Washington for quite a while. So, he'd be wise to stand down, but I doubt he would.

C. I think the FL Senate race will be the tightest of the cycle, so points A and B are dependent on what happens.

You might be right.  Except I think Scott is a hard worker at whatever he does.

I do not think Trump will be President in 2024. He will not be re-elected or if re-elected he will die in office.

SCHUYLKILL SCOTT!!

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lol@DeSantis being a stronger candidate than Scott. It’s also wayyyyy too early to declare Scott DOA in 2024 (he hasn’t even won this election yet, for God’s sake), but I agree that Scott is the kind of candidate who’s stronger as the challenger than the incumbent.

The polling in this race is in the process of following similar pattern to the Rubio race in 2016:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/fl/florida_senate_rubio_vs_murphy-5222.html#polls
 

An interesting point is that Mason Dixon ran its last poll in the Rubio case was in late September.  It had Rubio a head by +7.  Rubio won by 7.7.

I have said it be before and will say it again, if a voter voted for Rubio in 2016 there his a strong possibility and inclination that you will vote for Scott.

Please do not allege that I am saying this is a given.

I will say again, midterm turnout is always lower than Presidential year turnout and hundreds of thousands of people who voted for Rubio will stay home because Trump or Hillary isn’t on the ballot. It’s simply innumerate to assume the same number of people will turn out for a midterm as a general.

Global Strategy Group among Latinos

Nelson 44
Scott 41

BUT here is the striking thing

Among Puerto Ricans

Nelson 44
Scott 37

Among Cubans

Scott 57
Nelson 32

You can read it all at:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls

Leading among Puerto Ricans by only 7 isn't good enough for Nelson when Scott is leading him with Cubans by 24.

If this Poll is even remotely accurate Nelson is in deep trouble.

I didn't vote for Clinton or support her or Scott at any point in time.

Likely R tbh.  Scott is beloved.

lol

I was surprised the first time I visited a friend's home in Florida and saw the portrait of Scott on the wall, but you get accustomed to it.

It was a rough first term, but eventually people came to revere the man know as Rick Un-Scott

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^lmao

Likely R at this point.
Scott is invincible.