Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: TheRocketRaccoon on August 01, 2018, 02:11:52 am



Title: AZ-OH Predictive Insights: Sinema +4 (GE), McSally +8 (GOP primary)
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on August 01, 2018, 02:11:52 am
https://www.abc15.com/news/state/abc15-poll-arizona-senate-race-tightening-in-primary-general-election-matchups

GE
Sinema 48
McSally 44

GOP Primary
McSally 35
Ward 27
Arpaio 15
Undecided 23

McSally's primary lead has shrunk from +14 to +8.


Title: Re: AZ-OH Predictive Insights: Sinema +4 (GE), McSally +8 (GOP primary)
Post by: Bagel23 on August 01, 2018, 03:46:05 am
SINEMA!!


Title: Re: AZ-OH Predictive Insights: Sinema +4 (GE), McSally +8 (GOP primary)
Post by: dfwlibertylover on August 01, 2018, 05:22:19 am
Their last poll had Sinema + 6 so about in line with what Gravis and that other pollster (don't remember which one, Surveymonkey maybe?) found in the last month or so


Not Sure about that, but their four polls from 2016 had Clinton up by 7, Clinton up by 4, Clinton up by 1, and a Tied race on the Presidential level here (April 2016, June 2016, August 2016, September 2016)

Apparently they did not poll the Senate race back in 2016...


Title: Re: AZ-OH Predictive Insights: Sinema +4 (GE), McSally +8 (GOP primary)
Post by: Webnicz on August 01, 2018, 08:16:10 am

they're a local pollster based out of AZ that does polls for the AZGOP, so pretty much.

love when republican polls have sinema up. my blue dog queen.


Title: Re: AZ-OH Predictive Insights: Sinema +4 (GE), McSally +8 (GOP primary)
Post by: Sensitive Soccer Moms Against Impeachment on August 01, 2018, 11:15:40 am
Itís a #NeverTrump pollster I believe, so not exactly good news for McSally.


Title: Re: AZ-OH Predictive Insights: Sinema +4 (GE), McSally +8 (GOP primary)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 01, 2018, 11:17:26 am
Does anyone else when seeing this polling firm think its a poll for Ohio?


Title: Re: AZ-OH Predictive Insights: Sinema +4 (GE), McSally +8 (GOP primary)
Post by: PA is Lean D on August 01, 2018, 11:57:49 am
Does anyone else when seeing this polling firm think its a poll for Ohio?

I thought it was going to be two polls, one for Ohio and one for Arizona.


Title: Re: AZ-OH Predictive Insights: Sinema +4 (GE), McSally +8 (GOP primary)
Post by: Bagel23 on August 01, 2018, 12:06:25 pm
Does anyone else when seeing this polling firm think its a poll for Ohio?

I thought it was going to be two polls, one for Ohio and one for Arizona.


Title: Re: AZ-OH Predictive Insights: Sinema +4 (GE), McSally +8 (GOP primary)
Post by: Bevinevitable on August 01, 2018, 04:50:47 pm
Looks like Atlas crowned Sinema as Senator-elect a bit too early due to muh 6 month early polls and due to hypothetical matchups that will never actually occur. She'll still probably win though.


Title: Re: AZ-OH Predictive Insights: Sinema +4 (GE), McSally +8 (GOP primary)
Post by: x on August 01, 2018, 04:54:10 pm
Looks like Atlas crowned Sinema as Senator-elect a bit too early due to muh 6 month early polls and due to hypothetical matchups that will never actually occur. She'll still probably win though.

I mean, obviously it's too early to crown her the winner, but this poll shouldn't be the tidbit of data to make that obvious. It's a C+ pollster whose last result was only 2 points higher (+6). Not exactly a game changer.


Title: AZ: Other Source: Sinema +4
Post by: Bevinevitable on August 03, 2018, 04:47:09 pm
New Poll: Arizona Senator by Other Source on 2018-07-24 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4120180724106)

Summary: D: 48%, R: 44%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://createsend.com/t/i-C80F93AE97C9CCCA2540EF23F30FEDED)