Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on August 12, 2018, 07:45:10 AM



Title: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Tender Branson on August 12, 2018, 07:45:10 AM
47% Sen. McCaskill (D)
47% Hawley (R)

August 8-9.

https://www.weeklystandard.com/andrew-egger/in-missouri-claire-mccaskill-and-josh-hawley-in-dead-heat


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: OneJ on August 12, 2018, 07:47:06 AM
Is that an improvement for McCaskill since the last poll?


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Tender Branson on August 12, 2018, 07:49:18 AM
Is that an improvement for McCaskill since the last poll?

Yeah, she was down by 2 in their July poll.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: wesmoorenerd on August 12, 2018, 08:15:49 AM
Seeing as this is a Republican pollster, good result for McCaskill. McCaskill is sort of the anti-Nelson. She's looking less vulnerable than, say, Donnelly and Heitkamp because of how weak Hawley is shaping up to be. However, just like Nelson has room to grow and will probably surge toward the end, McCaskill's ceiling is low and Hawley could surge toward the end. Best case scenario is Nelson gets his s*it together and Hawley doesn't, of course.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Politician on August 12, 2018, 08:35:37 AM
Remember when everyone thought McCaskill would get blanched by Ann Wagner?


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: IceSpear on August 12, 2018, 08:38:11 AM
Remember when everyone thought McCaskill would get blanched by Ann Wagner literally any Republican?


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on August 12, 2018, 09:14:20 AM
Remember when everyone thought McCaskill would get blanched by Ann Wagner?

Exactly this probably would have happened in a Clinton midterm.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Zaybay on August 12, 2018, 11:09:57 AM
Yeah, this race is lean D at this point. If R pollsters are finding it a tie, and nonpartisan pollsters find her ahead by 4-5, and the primary showed a final margin of 53-47R, then Claire will have a much easier time of winning than previously thought.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Xing on August 12, 2018, 12:00:26 PM
I'm still rating this a Toss-Up out of caution, but yeah, I can't believe anyone actually thought that McCaskill would get blanched in a Republican midterm. She doesn't have this in the bag by any means, but if a Republican pollster shows a tie (a better result for her than before), she's in good shape for now.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Skye on August 12, 2018, 12:11:36 PM
Wait, where does it say Remington in the article? It only says it's from Missouri Scout, and their last poll actually showed McCaskill leading by 4. Unless I'm missing something.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: MT Treasurer on August 12, 2018, 01:44:45 PM
Remington is a Republican pollster the same way PPP is a Democratic pollster. Their final poll in 2016 actually underestimated Trump's winning margin and 538 gives them a mean-reverted bias of D+1.1, so the idea that we should just add 5 points or whatever to McCaskill's numbers because of the (R) is silly. Of course she could win, but I don’t get (or, actually I do) why people now think she’s much safer than Heitkamp, lmao. You should probably refrain from bashing Republicans for making "overconfident" predictions when you’re calling this Lean D and "unskewing" polls which don’t show her ahead.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: crazy jimmie on August 12, 2018, 04:38:31 PM
Remember when everyone thought McCaskill would get blanched by Ann Wagner?

and ann wagner herself is not even safe despite everyone believing last year that MO-02 was THE MOST REPUBLICAN DISTRICT IN THE COUNTRY BECAUSE TODD AKIN REPRESENTED IT!!!!


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: krazen1211 on August 12, 2018, 05:16:52 PM
Republicans easily got more votes in the primary. Big momentum for Hawley.

A Missouri Scout poll of the head-to-head matchup released Saturday morning finds likely voters evenly split on McCaskill and Hawley, with 47 percent supporting each candidate and six percent undecided. The poll, which was conducted on August 8 and 9, is the first major statewide poll since early July. Each of Missouri Scout’s previous polls, which took place in April and May, showed McCaskill holding a four-point lead.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Xing on August 12, 2018, 05:46:41 PM
Remington is a Republican pollster the same way PPP is a Democratic pollster. Their final poll in 2016 actually underestimated Trump's winning margin and 538 gives them a mean-reverted bias of D+1.1, so the idea that we should just add 5 points or whatever to McCaskill's numbers because of the (R) is silly. Of course she could win, but I don’t get (or, actually I do) why people now think she’s much safer than Heitkamp, lmao. You should probably refrain from bashing Republicans for making "overconfident" predictions when you’re calling this Lean D and "unskewing" polls which don’t show her ahead.

I mean, the average of polls puts her only very narrowly ahead (thus why I'd rate it a Toss-Up), but the average of polls in North Dakota show Heitkamp slightly behind. So if you take the polls at face value, it's not at all unreasonable to assume that she could do better than Heitkamp.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: MT Treasurer on August 12, 2018, 05:51:17 PM
I mean, the average of polls puts her only very narrowly ahead (thus why I'd rate it a Toss-Up), but the average of polls in North Dakota show Heitkamp slightly behind. So if you take the polls at face value, it's not at all unreasonable to assume that she could do better than Heitkamp.

Yeah, I’m not saying it couldn’t happen, but I definitely disagree with this weird idea that MO is Lean D while ND is Lean/Likely R. That sounds more like wishful thinking to me. I also think Hawley has much more room for improvement than Cramer.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: IceSpear on August 12, 2018, 05:58:29 PM
Republicans easily got more votes in the primary. Big momentum for Hawley.

Hot take.

2012:
289,481 D
603,120 R

2018:
605,503 D
663,553 R


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Skill and Chance on August 12, 2018, 06:09:42 PM
I mean, the average of polls puts her only very narrowly ahead (thus why I'd rate it a Toss-Up), but the average of polls in North Dakota show Heitkamp slightly behind. So if you take the polls at face value, it's not at all unreasonable to assume that she could do better than Heitkamp.

Yeah, I’m not saying it couldn’t happen, but I definitely disagree with this weird idea that MO is Lean D while ND is Lean/Likely R. That sounds more like wishful thinking to me. I also think Hawley has much more room for improvement than Cramer.

It's not Lean D, but it's looking likely to be a 1-3% affair either way at this point.  That is way better shape than anyone thought McCaskill would be in at this point.  In ND, by contrast, Cramer by 10% is a completely plausible outcome.  Basically, MO and IN have enough votes in large/medium-sized cities to keep this interesting.  ND doesn't, and Tester in MT should also be running more scared than he is.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: MT Treasurer on August 12, 2018, 06:12:32 PM
I mean, the average of polls puts her only very narrowly ahead (thus why I'd rate it a Toss-Up), but the average of polls in North Dakota show Heitkamp slightly behind. So if you take the polls at face value, it's not at all unreasonable to assume that she could do better than Heitkamp.

Yeah, I’m not saying it couldn’t happen, but I definitely disagree with this weird idea that MO is Lean D while ND is Lean/Likely R. That sounds more like wishful thinking to me. I also think Hawley has much more room for improvement than Cramer.

It's not Lean D, but it's looking likely to be a 1-3% affair either way at this point.  That is way better shape than anyone thought McCaskill would be in at this point.  In ND, by contrast, Cramer by 10% is a completely plausible outcome.

I agree on MO, but there is no way Cramer +10 is a completely plausible outcome. You guys are seriously underestimating Heitkamp, there is no way she loses by such a large margin in a Democratic wave year, especially if the populists<3 Tester and Manchin are basically safe.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: IceSpear on August 12, 2018, 06:20:05 PM
I mean, the average of polls puts her only very narrowly ahead (thus why I'd rate it a Toss-Up), but the average of polls in North Dakota show Heitkamp slightly behind. So if you take the polls at face value, it's not at all unreasonable to assume that she could do better than Heitkamp.

Yeah, I’m not saying it couldn’t happen, but I definitely disagree with this weird idea that MO is Lean D while ND is Lean/Likely R. That sounds more like wishful thinking to me. I also think Hawley has much more room for improvement than Cramer.

It's not Lean D, but it's looking likely to be a 1-3% affair either way at this point.  That is way better shape than anyone thought McCaskill would be in at this point.  In ND, by contrast, Cramer by 10% is a completely plausible outcome.

I agree on MO, but there is no way Cramer +10 is a completely plausible outcome. You guys are seriously underestimating Heitkamp, there is no way she loses by such a large margin in a Democratic wave year, especially if the populists<3 Tester and Manchin are basically safe.

Women can't qualify for #populism <3. That's why McCaskill is using the alternative shrill bitch strategy of dragging down Hawley. So far it's working for her. :)


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: crazy jimmie on August 12, 2018, 06:22:27 PM
2017: I was ridiculed, laughed at, called a troll, etc for stating McCaskill has a shot. Toss up tilt R race.

2018: I am one of the few who are not convinced that she has won the election.

My opinion has not changed on the status of the race but I change my mind on who will win every other hour evening while I am sleeping.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: MT Treasurer on August 12, 2018, 06:24:42 PM
Women can't qualify for #populism <3. That's why McCaskill is using the alternative shrill bitch strategy of dragging down Hawley. So far it's working for her. :)

#Populism <3 is such a fun ideology.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: IceSpear on August 12, 2018, 06:24:54 PM
2017: I was ridiculed, laughed at, called a troll, etc for stating McCaskill has a shot. Toss up tilt R race.

2018: I am one of the few who are not convinced that she has won the election.

My opinion has not changed on the status of the race but I change my mind on who will win every other hour evening while I am sleeping.

Shouldn't the astrology tell you who wins?


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: crazy jimmie on August 12, 2018, 06:26:39 PM
2017: I was ridiculed, laughed at, called a troll, etc for stating McCaskill has a shot. Toss up tilt R race.

2018: I am one of the few who are not convinced that she has won the election.

My opinion has not changed on the status of the race but I change my mind on who will win every other hour evening while I am sleeping.

Shouldn't the astrology tell you who wins?

It is another way to predict elections but it is not full proof. I do not have birth times for most of these people so I have to try to estimate their birth times based on life events.

I based McCaskill vs Wagner as a toss up due to Wagner not having great transits and progressions in November 2018 and January 2019.

McCaskill vs Hawley is also a toss up.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: OneJ on August 12, 2018, 07:20:36 PM
Republicans easily got more votes in the primary. Big momentum for Hawley.

A Missouri Scout poll of the head-to-head matchup released Saturday morning finds likely voters evenly split on McCaskill and Hawley, with 47 percent supporting each candidate and six percent undecided. The poll, which was conducted on August 8 and 9, is the first major statewide poll since early July. Each of Missouri Scout’s previous polls, which took place in April and May, showed McCaskill holding a four-point lead.

I see the biggest GOP cheerleader is at it again! Your party got 52% of the overall primary vote in a state that is R+9. I don’t see that as “big” momentum for Hawley (or McDowell for that matter) but whatever makes you sleep at night. ::)


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on August 12, 2018, 07:44:47 PM
This is...good?


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on August 12, 2018, 07:44:56 PM
Is that an improvement for McCaskill since the last poll?

Yeah, she was down by 2 in their July poll.

Seeing as this is a Republican pollster, good result for McCaskill. McCaskill is sort of the anti-Nelson. She's looking less vulnerable than, say, Donnelly and Heitkamp because of how weak Hawley is shaping up to be. However, just like Nelson has room to grow and will probably surge toward the end, McCaskill's ceiling is low and Hawley could surge toward the end. Best case scenario is Nelson gets his s*it together and Hawley doesn't, of course.

Can you two not read?  The article says that this is a Missouri Scout poll.  It also says that the last two Missouri Scout polls had McCaskill up by 4.

This new poll is not yet in the RCP average. If it Is added, the average becomes McCaskill +.2.  If you drop the April and May polls it becomes Hawley +.7

The race is a tossup.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: wesmoorenerd on August 12, 2018, 09:34:56 PM
Is that an improvement for McCaskill since the last poll?

Yeah, she was down by 2 in their July poll.

Seeing as this is a Republican pollster, good result for McCaskill. McCaskill is sort of the anti-Nelson. She's looking less vulnerable than, say, Donnelly and Heitkamp because of how weak Hawley is shaping up to be. However, just like Nelson has room to grow and will probably surge toward the end, McCaskill's ceiling is low and Hawley could surge toward the end. Best case scenario is Nelson gets his s*it together and Hawley doesn't, of course.

Can you two not read?  The article says that this is a Missouri Scout poll.  It also says that the last two Missouri Scout polls had McCaskill up by 4.

This new poll is not yet in the RCP average. If it Is added, the average becomes McCaskill +.2.  If you drop the April and May polls it becomes Hawley +.7

The race is a tossup.


When did I ever say the race wasn't a tossup? I said it was one optimistic data point for McCaskill, who is looking to be in better shape than Donnelly is at least.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Zaybay on August 12, 2018, 09:36:20 PM
Is that an improvement for McCaskill since the last poll?

Yeah, she was down by 2 in their July poll.

Seeing as this is a Republican pollster, good result for McCaskill. McCaskill is sort of the anti-Nelson. She's looking less vulnerable than, say, Donnelly and Heitkamp because of how weak Hawley is shaping up to be. However, just like Nelson has room to grow and will probably surge toward the end, McCaskill's ceiling is low and Hawley could surge toward the end. Best case scenario is Nelson gets his s*it together and Hawley doesn't, of course.

Can you two not read?  The article says that this is a Missouri Scout poll.  It also says that the last two Missouri Scout polls had McCaskill up by 4.

This new poll is not yet in the RCP average. If it Is added, the average becomes McCaskill +.2.  If you drop the April and May polls it becomes Hawley +.7

The race is a tossup.

MO scout was used, but Remington, an R firm, sponsored the poll. So this is, in fact, a Remington poll.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on August 13, 2018, 12:02:37 AM
Is that an improvement for McCaskill since the last poll?

Yeah, she was down by 2 in their July poll.

Seeing as this is a Republican pollster, good result for McCaskill. McCaskill is sort of the anti-Nelson. She's looking less vulnerable than, say, Donnelly and Heitkamp because of how weak Hawley is shaping up to be. However, just like Nelson has room to grow and will probably surge toward the end, McCaskill's ceiling is low and Hawley could surge toward the end. Best case scenario is Nelson gets his s*it together and Hawley doesn't, of course.

Can you two not read?  The article says that this is a Missouri Scout poll.  It also says that the last two Missouri Scout polls had McCaskill up by 4.

This new poll is not yet in the RCP average. If it Is added, the average becomes McCaskill +.2.  If you drop the April and May polls it becomes Hawley +.7

The race is a tossup.

MO scout was used, but Remington, an R firm, sponsored the poll. So this is, in fact, a Remington poll.
But does that mean they can be compared to show movement.  Generally I will not use two different polling organizations to show movement.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Zaybay on August 13, 2018, 12:04:54 AM
Is that an improvement for McCaskill since the last poll?

Yeah, she was down by 2 in their July poll.

Seeing as this is a Republican pollster, good result for McCaskill. McCaskill is sort of the anti-Nelson. She's looking less vulnerable than, say, Donnelly and Heitkamp because of how weak Hawley is shaping up to be. However, just like Nelson has room to grow and will probably surge toward the end, McCaskill's ceiling is low and Hawley could surge toward the end. Best case scenario is Nelson gets his s*it together and Hawley doesn't, of course.

Can you two not read?  The article says that this is a Missouri Scout poll.  It also says that the last two Missouri Scout polls had McCaskill up by 4.

This new poll is not yet in the RCP average. If it Is added, the average becomes McCaskill +.2.  If you drop the April and May polls it becomes Hawley +.7

The race is a tossup.

MO scout was used, but Remington, an R firm, sponsored the poll. So this is, in fact, a Remington poll.
But does that mean they can be compared to show movement.  Generally I will not use two different polling organizations to show movement.
TBH, I dont know. Its hard to see whether this is movement to either side, due to the fact that it was done by both, but due to the fact that this is considered an R internal, I lean towards the "movement to Claire" side.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: TarHeelDem on August 13, 2018, 12:54:18 AM
This race is less competitive than ND/IN/FL and I'm fascinated by the fact that some people don't see that. McCaskill is a strong politician and to be underestimated at one's peril.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Skye on August 13, 2018, 06:18:10 AM
Is that an improvement for McCaskill since the last poll?

Yeah, she was down by 2 in their July poll.

Seeing as this is a Republican pollster, good result for McCaskill. McCaskill is sort of the anti-Nelson. She's looking less vulnerable than, say, Donnelly and Heitkamp because of how weak Hawley is shaping up to be. However, just like Nelson has room to grow and will probably surge toward the end, McCaskill's ceiling is low and Hawley could surge toward the end. Best case scenario is Nelson gets his s*it together and Hawley doesn't, of course.

Can you two not read?  The article says that this is a Missouri Scout poll.  It also says that the last two Missouri Scout polls had McCaskill up by 4.

This new poll is not yet in the RCP average. If it Is added, the average becomes McCaskill +.2.  If you drop the April and May polls it becomes Hawley +.7

The race is a tossup.

MO scout was used, but Remington, an R firm, sponsored the poll. So this is, in fact, a Remington poll.

But where does it say in the article that Remington sponsored it?! Or am I missing something?


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on August 13, 2018, 06:39:08 AM
Yeah I don't see anything about this being a Remington poll, either, the last MO Scout poll (MO Scout has their own polling :P) had McCaskill up by 4.....


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 13, 2018, 11:10:37 AM
Per DKE, (https://www.scribd.com/document/386096380/MO-Sen-TJP-Strategies-D-for-Missouri-Scout-August-2018) the firm is a Dem one, TBJ Strategies, that Scout used for earlier polls. Crosstabs here. It also shows GOP leading Auditor race 47/42. Medical marijuana, redistricting and minimum wage amendments all have big leads.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on August 13, 2018, 12:42:11 PM
RCP HAS THE NEW Missouri Scout poll posted and still has the Remington poll in the mix.  Th average is Hawley +.2.  If you disregard all the pre July polls the average is Hawley +1.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: President Johnson on August 13, 2018, 12:43:14 PM
Slightly tilt Democratic. A tie in a Republican internal is a good sign for McCaskill. I think she wins by 3-4 points in the end.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Pollster on August 13, 2018, 12:49:24 PM
McCaskill is in great shape if this poll is accurate: undecidedes are higher in media markets favorable to her, she has consolidated Democrats, cut into Republicans (11%), winning independents by a strong margin, and crushing Hawley among moderates. A strong turnout operation for these popular, progressive ballot measures will provide critical assistance.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: KingSweden on August 13, 2018, 02:33:35 PM
Whoa you mean a Tossup race is still a Tossup no way you guys


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on August 13, 2018, 02:42:15 PM
So it has been confirmed this was not a remington poll and thus not a republican poll, might want to change the title :P


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: LimoLiberal on August 13, 2018, 02:47:28 PM
Change from previous poll.

McCaskill - 47 (-1)
Hawley - 47 (+3)


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Classic Conservative on August 14, 2018, 09:30:21 AM
So it has been confirmed this was not a remington poll and thus not a republican poll, might want to change the title :P


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Pandaguineapig on August 14, 2018, 09:37:20 AM
This is a good poll for Hawley considering how this is a Democratic internal and shows an improvement since last time. Hawley can also find optimism with the fact that republicans have tended to outperform the polls in Missouri as of Late


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: MT Treasurer on August 14, 2018, 09:37:24 AM
So it has been confirmed this was not a remington poll and thus not a republican poll, might want to change the title :P

Don’t rain on their parade.

This race really brings out the worst in Atlas.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on August 14, 2018, 10:47:54 AM
This is a good poll for Hawley considering how this is a Democratic internal and shows an improvement since last time. Hawley can also find optimism with the fact that republicans have tended to outperform the polls in Missouri as of Late
This is a Republican internal.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Zaybay on August 14, 2018, 10:50:50 AM
After all of this debate, I officially have no idea what this poll means in context with anything.

What I do know is that, if Claire is tying now, then shes likely to win reelection, unless Hawley turns out to be a juggernaut.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Skye on August 14, 2018, 11:20:44 AM
This is a good poll for Hawley considering how this is a Democratic internal and shows an improvement since last time. Hawley can also find optimism with the fact that republicans have tended to outperform the polls in Missouri as of Late
This is a Republican internal.

WTH it's neither of those.


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on August 14, 2018, 01:49:29 PM
This is a good poll for Hawley considering how this is a Democratic internal and shows an improvement since last time. Hawley can also find optimism with the fact that republicans have tended to outperform the polls in Missouri as of Late
This is a Republican internal.

WTH it's neither of those.

Would those claiming this anybody’s internal poll please provide proof?


Title: Re: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
Post by: SnowLabrador on August 20, 2018, 07:23:22 PM
It's going to be a tossup right up to Election Day, in all probability.