Talk Elections

45-36 over Shady Schuette. Lean D.

http://strategicnational.com/michigan-statewide-general-election-poll/

Totally predictable and unsurprising result yet Atlas will try to unskew this poll('muh sexism')

Primary bounce.  Numbers should start to shrink once misogynist blue-collar angry white men come home for Schuette.

/there, said it before LimoLiberal or hoifoid did

Speaking as an elastic WWC populist, I know that 53 year-old blue collar manufacturing white male Detroit Lions fans in Macomb county will swing hard for Schuette, since they'd never vote for Whitlary Clinton. Safe R.

Assuming you’re not trolling, Democrats won more votes in Macomb than Republicans.

OH + IA are next.

Annoying that there are almost no polls from these 2 states.

Think Dems have a chance in IA?

I think so.

The last poll there is half a year old, but in the meantime Democrats have made huge voter registration gains and almost closed the gap with the Republicans there, after being down 70.000 voters a few months ago. And Gov. Reynolds (R) has only approval ratings that are slightly above water. Plus, Hubbell (D) is well-funded.

I think the next polls will show a close-ish race.

What an evening it would be if the Dems swept all of the Midwestern gubernatorial races (with the exception of SD and NE of course)!

I expect Noem in SD to win by about 10 points, a win but a significant underperformance (Daugaard won by 45 points in 2014).  There's been one poll of the race, and it showed Noem ahead by 4, but I think a 10 point margin sounds about right in the end - Sutton is a better recruit than normal in SD, by a long shot, but will still fall short.

Don't know the pollster's track record, but this is definitely a Lean D sort of race IMO. 2016 nowithstanding Michigan is generally Democratic, it's a Democratic year and Snyder's unpopularity can't help either.

Since when have Nebraska and South Dakota been in the Midwest?

Since forever.

LOL.

Anyway yeah, this is unsurprising. I've been convinced Whitmer was heavily favored ever since polls showed her leading Schuette even when she had like 20% name recognition.

It's also worth noting that Schuette has a 39-51 favorability rating while Whitmer is at 54-34. Looks like the scandals are taking their toll on Shady Schuette.

New Poll: Michigan Governor by Strategic National on 2018-08-14 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2018/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2620180814170)

Summary: D: 45%, R: 36%, U: 19%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://strategicnational.com/michigan-statewide-general-election-poll/)

Whitmer is still easily more likely to lose than Heller and Tester combined (also, Schuette stronger candidate than ROSENdale), and her retail politics and charisma leave much to be desired (*cough* Heitkamp *cough*), but I agree that this is definitely Lean D at this point.

The angry white women™ of Oakland county will put Whitmer over the top easily

I wish this poll had crosstabs. I want to see who the Reagan Democrats are voting for. :)