Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Hindsight was 2020 on August 24, 2018, 04:48:58 PM



Title: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on August 24, 2018, 04:48:58 PM
Rosen: 48
Heller: 43

Also interestingly enough the issue of should Heller back Kavanaugh was polled and it was 47/42 against Kavanaugh
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/new-poll-shows-slightly-more-nevadans-than-not-think-heller-should-oppose-kavanaugh/


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Politician on August 24, 2018, 04:49:41 PM
But but but Jacky Rosen is an uninspiring candidate and UTDH was leading according to Gravis!


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: DaWN on August 24, 2018, 04:55:40 PM
This is more or less what I expected to see this race at. Lean D, although probably closer to Likely - Heller's only chance is if the national environment gets much MUCH better for the GOP.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: IceSpear on August 24, 2018, 04:56:09 PM
Just wait until Unbeatable Titan Dirty Daddy Dean Heller runs ads about how bad Jacky Rosen's haircut is. Her numbers will go into freefall.

And if that fails, there's always his ace in the hole. An ad quoting Atlas Forum posters about how Jacky Rosen is the worst candidate in American history, to lock down the political junkie nerds in their teens/20s demographic.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Devout Centrist on August 24, 2018, 04:57:42 PM
Why didn't they poll a more competitive race?


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: IceSpear on August 24, 2018, 04:59:44 PM
Why didn't they poll a more competitive race?

So true. Why poll a safe R race?


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: MT Treasurer on August 24, 2018, 05:17:57 PM
Heller might make this somewhat close if the national environment improves for Republicans, but it’s just not going to happen for him this year. The NRSC should triage this and put more effort into winning MT/WV.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Ebsy on August 24, 2018, 05:31:04 PM
Hmm wonder why it is taking so long for mds to put this in the database.


Title: NV: Public Policy Polling: Fake news skewed poll says weak candidate Jacky Rosen somehow leads Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller
Post by: IceSpear on August 24, 2018, 05:32:19 PM
New Poll: Nevada Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2018-08-21 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=32120180821108)

Summary: D: 48%, R: 43%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/new-poll-shows-slightly-more-nevadans-than-not-think-heller-should-oppose-kavanaugh/)


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: IceSpear on August 24, 2018, 05:43:44 PM
Quote
The poll also found that 52 percent of Nevadans disapprove of Heller’s job performance, while 34 percent approve of it. Trump had a higher approval rating, 43 percent, with a similar disapproval rating, 53 percent.

Sounds like Nevada is ripe for Republican dominance this year. ::)


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: KingSweden on August 24, 2018, 05:44:36 PM
Fake news. Atlas told me Heller was not just Unbeatable, but also literally Titanium


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on August 24, 2018, 07:16:20 PM
Heller might make this somewhat close if the national environment improves for Republicans, but it’s just not going to happen for him this year. The NRSC should triage this and put more effort into winning MT/WV.

Possibly.  They may have to tell Adelson and the Koch Brothers to take it over.

But even with this poll the RCP average would only be Rosen +2.8.  It is too early to desert a sitting Senator.  With the polling errors in 2016 and the wild swings in Florida Democrat Governor’s race, you just cannot let polls make all the decisions.

If the GOP should leave Nevada, the Democrats should leave Florida.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on August 24, 2018, 07:20:00 PM
Fake news. Atlas told me Heller was not just Unbeatable, but also literally Titanium

Nobody told you any such thing.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on August 24, 2018, 07:31:43 PM
Well, as expected Rosen is outperforming Sisolak


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Zaybay on August 24, 2018, 07:35:29 PM
I am shocked, shocked I tell you!


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: MT Treasurer on August 24, 2018, 07:36:01 PM
Heller might make this somewhat close if the national environment improves for Republicans, but it’s just not going to happen for him this year. The NRSC should triage this and put more effort into winning MT/WV.

Possibly.  They may have to tell Adelson and the Koch Brothers to take it over.

But even with this poll the RCP average would only be Rosen +2.8.  It is too early to desert a sitting Senator.  With the polling errors in 2016 and the wild swings in Florida Democrat Governor’s race, you just cannot let polls make all the decisions.

If the GOP should leave Nevada, the Democrats should leave Florida.

If there is another polling error in 2018, it will impact the Midwest and states like MT/ND/WV more than NV, where Heck and Trump couldn’t even win in a Republican year. Heller being the incumbent doesn’t change the fact that he’s not the strongest candidate (to put it mildly) and that NV leans strongly D in a year like this. By your logic, Democrats shouldn’t have triaged someone like Pryor in August either (yes, yes, obviously NV is much more competitive than AR, but still...).

I fail to see what the "wild swings" in a gubernatorial primary in an entirely different state tell us about the general election in a state like Nevada. Obviously, a GE has a smaller slice of persuadable voters, so the swings won’t be as wild here as in a primary.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: MT Treasurer on August 24, 2018, 07:36:45 PM

We all are.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: OneJ on August 24, 2018, 07:44:08 PM
PPP is a Democratic, abortion-loving Planned Parenthood hack pollster and Nevada is full of low turnout Latinos. I just can’t wait to taste those liberal tears when Unbeatable Titan Heller wins re-election !


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Brittain33 on August 24, 2018, 08:23:14 PM
Rosen is too far under 50% to win.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on August 24, 2018, 08:40:25 PM
PPP is a Democratic, abortion-loving Planned Parenthood hack pollster and Nevada is full of low turnout Latinos. I just can’t wait to taste those liberal tears when Unbeatable Titan Heller wins re-election !

Yeah Adam Laxalt and Jacky Rosen can be elected at the sametime


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Xing on August 24, 2018, 09:05:30 PM
Clearly the polls are underestimating Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller, just like they did in 2012 and for Republicans in 2016!

Oh wait, polls actually underestimated Democrats in Nevada every recent race except NV-GOV 2014. And Heller's actually polling worse than Trump or Heck, who both lost. Nevada's the most likely seat to flip, Atlas. Deal with it.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Zaybay on August 24, 2018, 09:16:02 PM
Clearly the polls are underestimating Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller, just like they did in 2012 and for Republicans in 2016!

Oh wait, polls actually underestimated Democrats in Nevada every recent race except NV-GOV 2014. And Heller's actually polling worse than Trump or Heck, who both lost. Nevada's the most likely seat to flip, Atlas. Deal with it.
B-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-ut my HeLlEr unBeAtAblE TiTan :(:(:(:(:(:(


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Xing on August 24, 2018, 09:28:19 PM
Clearly the polls are underestimating Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller, just like they did in 2012 and for Republicans in 2016!

Oh wait, polls actually underestimated Democrats in Nevada every recent race except NV-GOV 2014. And Heller's actually polling worse than Trump or Heck, who both lost. Nevada's the most likely seat to flip, Atlas. Deal with it.
B-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-ut my HeLlEr unBeAtAblE TiTan :(:(:(:(:(:(

I know, right? :'(

Btw, love how the poll was entered, IceSpear, lol.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: libertpaulian on August 24, 2018, 09:40:20 PM
Yeah, that's why we have Senator Shelly Berkley now...oh, wait.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Devils30 on August 24, 2018, 10:04:47 PM
Would not be shocked to see a 53-42-5 type of result for Rosen


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: SATW on August 24, 2018, 10:06:03 PM
Heller will win 49-44-7.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: krazen1211 on August 24, 2018, 10:55:30 PM

Yes.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Roblox on August 24, 2018, 11:07:16 PM
What happened to the clark county anarchist communist protest voting for heller??!!?


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on August 24, 2018, 11:34:57 PM
Just read the link to the poll.  I know they asked too many questions about Kavanaugh.  One of the questions asked how they would vote if his appointment led reversal of Roe.  PPP turned this into apush poll.  I do not put a lot of stock in push polls. I do not know the order of questions. The name of the poll sponsor is also suspect.  It also became essentially an internal poll.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Zaybay on August 24, 2018, 11:52:53 PM
Just read the link to the poll.  I know they asked too many questions about Kavanaugh.  One of the questions asked how they would vote if his appointment led reversal of Roe.  PPP turned this into apush poll.  I do not put a lot of stock in push polls. I do not know the order of questions. The name of the poll sponsor is also suspect.  It also became essentially an internal poll.
PPP always asks the base question first, so its unlikely the future questions made any impact on voter preferences. While they do lean D with their questioning, their baselines are very reliable.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: SnowLabrador on August 25, 2018, 12:51:27 AM
I'd believe it if Rosen won by low-to-mid single digits. That said, the Democrats should absolutely NOT take this race for granted. It's a race they absolutely must win, or else they can't retake the Senate.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Mail-order President on August 25, 2018, 01:05:07 AM
D Pollster.

Tilt D


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: AtorBoltox on August 25, 2018, 01:26:14 AM
Cruz ahead by 5- Safe R
Rosen ahead by 5- Safe R???


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on August 25, 2018, 04:37:21 AM
Cruz ahead by 5- Safe R
Rosen ahead by 5- Safe R???

RCP averages

    Cruz +6.2
     With this poll Rosen +2.8

Do you see a difference?


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: CookieDamage on August 25, 2018, 05:11:17 AM
Unbeatable Big Thicc Boy Will Win and Here's My #Take


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Brittain33 on August 25, 2018, 07:27:31 AM
Cruz ahead by 5- Safe R
Rosen ahead by 5- Safe R???

I don’t understand the question marks. Makes sense to me.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Holmes on August 25, 2018, 09:17:58 AM
Cruz ahead by 5- Safe R
Rosen ahead by 5- Safe R???

(It's a joke)


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on August 25, 2018, 10:39:24 AM
Lean D, as it has been.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on August 25, 2018, 10:55:34 AM
I just wish we ran someone more progressive like Lucy Flores but oh well.  Rosen will easily win.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on August 25, 2018, 03:17:07 PM

Heller is running way behind Adam Laxalt, just because Laxalt does well, doesn't mean Heller will too.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: IceSpear on August 25, 2018, 04:12:15 PM
What happened to the clark county anarchist communist protest voting for heller??!!?

He probably got wind of this poll and ran off.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Devils30 on August 25, 2018, 05:10:24 PM
Trump led Nevada in RCP going into election day 2016, one of the few states Clinton outperformed polls. CNN even had him up 6 there. Of course anyone who remembered 2010 or 2012 knew NV was likely not a true swing state.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on August 25, 2018, 05:20:42 PM
PPP release of the poll (http://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/NevadaResults1-1.pdf)


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: KingSweden on August 25, 2018, 09:24:07 PM
Fake news. Atlas told me Heller was not just Unbeatable, but also literally Titanium

Nobody told you any such thing.

You must not be familiar with the meme


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on August 26, 2018, 09:07:54 PM
RCP HAS NOT ADDED THIS POLL TO ITS LIST.  WONDER WHY.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on August 26, 2018, 09:29:36 PM
RCP HAS NOT ADDED THIS POLL TO ITS LIST.  WONDER WHY.

Chill a bit, no one needs to see you screeching in caps here.


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: IceSpear on August 27, 2018, 04:20:45 PM
Btw, love how the poll was entered, IceSpear, lol.

It's gone now. :'(

Did Dave grace our presence to edit my poll caption, or was it Virginia or Brittain? lol


Title: Re: PPP: Rosen +5
Post by: Politician on August 27, 2018, 04:21:40 PM
RCP HAS NOT ADDED THIS POLL TO ITS LIST.  WONDER WHY.
That says more about RCP than it does about this poll.