Talk Elections

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/republican-poll-shows-tight-race-for-montana-senate

Rosendale 47
Tester 45

Aug. 20-22, 600 likely voters.

I think this is an R internal, but not sure.

Edit: Yes, this was conducted for the NRSC.

Lol, but this race will probably be close.

Cue Atlas calling this race lean R

The difference between the House and the Senate is that for the Senate, Republicans can occasionally scrounge up internals worth releasing.

Junk poll, Tester is favored in this race. Still lean D.

A poll showing both Rosen and Rosendale ahead in the same week. I'm surprised the forum hasn't spontaneously combusted yet.

Thats a rather good point. Its possible that we are more favoured for that seat than previously thought.

It’s definitely closer to Tester +3 or something like that right now, but the idea that this race is Safe D or less competitive than NJ, MN or WI is nothing short of ridiculous.


Haha, I love it.

It's time for more MT polls. This is a competitive race. Just because it's MT doesn't mean it has to fly under the radar.

It’s a Republican internal, but clearly Democrats can’t take this seat for granted. We don’t want another 2016 when Democrats are declaring victory long before the election.

Rosendale has been hit with an unprecedented and constant barrage of attack ads which the GOP hasn’t countered effectively, he’s being heavily outspent and he’s losing the ground war badly. The fundamentals still favor Democrats in this race, but maybe if the NRSC/outside GOP groups started putting actual effort into winning this race and defining Tester like they did with Heitkamp instead of wasting $$$ in NV and basing their target list on Charlie Cook's garbage "analysis"/Senate rankings it could become more competitive. Still Lean D for now, I’m not getting my hopes up here. ND, IN, MO and FL are better targets, but WV and MT definitely need to be contested by the GOP.

Fake News. Unbeatable Electoral Titan Jon Tester will win with 97% of the vote.

It’s an internal but the dems and reps shouldn’t write it off

Edge of likely and lean D since this is an R internal

Tester signaling a surprising willingness to vote for Kavanaugh may suggest he also finds this race close

Quit kidding yourself, Tester will vote No.

It's over folks. Safe R now.

Close race here.

Pure toss up

Their Missouri "poll" was not actually a poll, merely a model these morons came up with. I hope it is not entered into the database.

This one claims to be a real poll of 600 likely voters from Aug. 20-22.  (I've edited the OP to include that information.)

If Tester is losing, then Democrats are probably losing around 5 Senate seats.

Hmm, losing NV and AZ, gaining IN, MO, ND, MT and FL = R+3. Not that implausible if 2016 trends continue.

And no, Tester isn’t going to vote for Kavanaugh, the #resistance base in MT (unlike ND) is actually fairly sizable and a major reason why Tester has such a high floor. As far as the database is concerned, people here were quick to add that garbage from Gravis and Morning Consult to the database, so I see no reason why this one shouldn’t be added, especially since it’s not even a model like that MO "poll".

MT Treasurer has a point. The country is getting more polarized - in 2016 the winning party in each Senate race was the same as the winning party in the presidential race in each state.

Tester is over. Move on, Dems. The rural collapse continues unless they wise up and change their ways.

Fits with my theory of the "conditional-wave" (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=239545.msg6365203#msg6365203) - since Montana is a mostly rural state, Trump's 20-point advantage in the state will carry Matt Rosendale through.

The Dems have completely and utterly prevented themselves from ever winning the Senate again by spitting on rurals time and time again, forgetting that each state provides 2 Senators regardless of whether they have the Dems' favoured demographics or not.

It'd be shocking because of the implications.

But I actually wouldn't be that surprised if it happens.

It'd be shocking because of the implications.

But I actually wouldn't be that surprised if it happens.
[/quote]

You left out MS, TN and TX

What fun would that be?  You wouldn't have anything to make terrible posts about then.

Throw it right in the trash