Talk Elections

46% Bill Nelson (D, inc.)
45% Rick Scott (R)

Trump approval: 46/49 (-3)

http://files.constantcontact.com/a97ff0ce601/d420c047-65fd-49bd-9631-f7d774d9c41d.pdf

I think right now Scott is leading by 1-2 points, but I still think Nelson will win in the end.

Tossup. Good to see that at least Scott is not ahead in this.

A pure tossup with Scott spending his entire fortune and Nelson barely spending a dime. This race is gonna go D.

I believe that Scott now leads 5-6%, in November he will win + 2%. And the results of this poll is due to the fact that PPP always prefers Dems

In the end this is going to Nelson, IF he actually starts campaigning soon. Scott having already spent tons of his money and still trailing in some polls (and leading by pretty narrow margins in others) means that if Nelson gets his sh** together he can win pretty easily.

Thats not true. PPP has a bias of 0.6 on average.....for the Republican. They are an independent pollster, they arent owned by the D party. And even if they were, why would they release bias and false results that show such a close race?

Yawn...another WI 2016 type race. Spaceman will win in the end


Money doesn't matter

https://www.twitter.com/SamanthaJoRoth/status/1034615359817560064

Or, more exactly, money after the first couple million really doesn't matter.

Come on Nelson buddy, let's win this thing, push hard man!!

Agree with this. Money does matter, but after the first 10$ million, it becomes useless, and in the case of Rick Scott, a negative, due to oversaturation. This race is tilt-Nelson, considering he still hasnt spent any money, and will start after Labour day.

Reminder:

Scott has spent $40MM on TV ads and 75% of that went to negatives ads against Nelson.

Nelson JUST went up on TV yesterday.

Their reputation is built on their history of independent polling. This year, for the first time, they only are releasing internal polls for clients, so their polls will likely have a more distinct bias than in years past.

It doesn't matter if Scott ends up spending 200 Mio. $ or something ...

If Nelson keeps airing mostly positive ads, he can still pull Scott's teeth in the coming months.

The Gillum surge and enthusiasm will create a favourable environment for Nelson as well, bringing a lot of Blacks to the polls who will also vote for him.

Nelson leading Scott 55-30 among Hispanics. Devastating result for the Algae Governor.

LMAO holy sh**t! That is a a lot of money for a 4th place finish by Greene

Minority crossover and generalized hatred of Rick Scott may just save Nelson this year

It's because tons of political consultants advise candidates to spend millions on TV Ads, and direct mail. The companies that produce TV Ads, and direct mail tend to be owned by the same consultants. Rinse and repeat.

 

:thinking:

This poll, like many other PPPs, has been made by ordering Dems and, accordingly, showing their advantage, in my opinion, now Scott leads 5%. Also, the same poll that was held on June 18-19 showed Nelson 48-46

You do realize Hillary & her supporting PACs spent over 1/2 billion more than Trump?

Again, PPP is an independent pollster, they dont take marching orders from the D party. They have, again, had a GOP bias in their polling so far. You cant just add 6%.
Anyway, the change from PPP is -2 for Nelson, and -1 for Scott. Dont know why such a manipulative D pollster would want to publish such a result.

Doesn't that prove their point?

Money is important when it comes to getting candidates viable and making people think they can run in the first place. Not a lot of people can raise even $100,000, let alone $6.6 million. But once you are a viable candidate, differences in spending don't make that much difference. That's why it's a much bigger factor in things like state legislative races, or even Congressional races than statewide races.

PPP polls
      April 10-11/18.   Nelson 50.  Scott 44
      June 18-19/18.    Nelson 48 Scott 46
      Aug 29-30/18.     Nelson 46 Scott 45

The debates will be very important. 

Interesting that its the undecided pool thats increasing, and not Scott. I wonder what happens when Nelson starts spending on ads(hes starting today).

Wow- and Scott had the airwaves to himself and dumped $40M on tv ads and still isn't leading after 5 months. Scott might as well light money on fire.

Its in the 50s now.

I have to say, it kinda pisses me off that Levine and Green spent nearly $70 million combined on what were effectively vanity campaigns, when the DSCC badly needs that money and the DNC is running on fumes.

Gillum leads by more than Nelson in the same poll? Bill is in trouble.

Opposite, Gillum is stronger than believed. Nelson is doing the same hes been doing in every other poll. Its just that Gillum is stronger and facing a weaker challenger, where Nelson is not. Anyway, I expect the numbers to rise when Bill starts airing ads, which starts today, and its not good for Scott if hes so far spent 50$ million and, as another poster showed, not gained anything.
PPP polls
      April 10-11/18.   Nelson 50.  Scott 44
      June 18-19/18.    Nelson 48 Scott 46
      Aug 29-30/18.     Nelson 46 Scott 45

If you’re trusting these numbers, the race went from Nelson +6 in April to Nelson +1 now, so I don’t see how Scott hasn’t gained anything? And it’s not as if PPP is the only polling form polling this race, other polls have shown much better numbers for Scott.

I’m not saying this race isn’t a Tossup, but all three polls you cited were commissioned by Democratic groups, so I think you’re being a little selective here. It’s also not really accurate that there haven’t been any pro-Nelson/anti-Scott ads so far.

He has only actually gained 1 point from the first poll, the others have become undecideds. If Scott were gaining, they should have gone over to Scott, but they are still up for grabs.

And the problem with this race is that, while we are getting polling, most of it is garbage. The Florida Chamber of Commerce and Florida Atlantic University polls arent even considered legitimate by Nate, Cook, Sabato, and even Gonzalez. And good pollsters havent polled this race for a month and a 1/2 now. This is the first good pollster, though it is only a B pollster, coming in, so I take their numbers over the flood of poor polling info that shows Nelson winning whites and Scott winning Hispanics.

This and the Gillum poll indicates the serious need for both wings of the Democratic Party to work together.   The situation in Georgia is quite similar--Abrams at the top of the ticket has a reasonable chance to carry some Democrats (LG, SOS--major office in GA) with her.

The two(Nelson and Gillum) do have a great synergy. Gillum turns up turnout, while Nelson convinces the conservative Ds. But its clear that one strategy is working much better than the other.

Painfully obvious but yeah. None the less, we gotta work together, we’ll help guard the flanks in WV, Mn 7th, PA 17th, etc, and yall guard the flanks in FL, MT, and Ohio, this has got to be a team effort, it’s our best bet to be united.

Well, actually, we are also guarding the flanks in WV with Ojeda(actually said hes leaning to the CPC :) )but yeah, it does seem that both sides are really doing well holding down the flanks for the other.

this is a fair critique

It was their own money, they didn't take it from donors. If they hadn't of run it would just be in their bank accounts.

Well nah, it’s blue dogs for now in WV. It’s quite obvious that Manchin is holding the flank and giving coattails to Ojeda. If Ojeda wins, he can probably thank Manchin in the same way for Nelson and Gillum. Now 10-20 years in the future, it may very well be Ojeda and the more left wingers holding the flank in WV, but for this cycle, it’s pretty obvious whose holding the flank and giving the coattails.

The fact that a Democratic pollster is showing Nelson with a one point lead, after previously showing him up two and six points, while every other poll shows Scott winning, should be very concerning to the Nelson campaign. Right now, I’m still expecting Rick Scott to narrowly win this seat on election day.

Dominating.

Nelson is clearly in trouble, but I think all the people saying "Senator Scott" or calling this race Lean R were jumping the gun. It's a Toss-Up.

I dont think Manchin is giving coattails, in fact, I think they will get the same result. Besides, the two hate each other, so I would rather say both are defending two different flanks.

BTW, are you thinking that Gillum will get more of the vote, or Nelson?

Florida confuses me so much. I just hope both Gillum and Nelson can win. I will (mostly) abandon my "I hate Florida" schtick if that happens. Me complaining about your weather will always be fair-game though.

Ojeda and Manchi, hate each other? Source?

I thought this was widely known, Ojeda hates Manchin for being the embodiment for the Coal Industry heads, and Manchin hates Ojeda for breaking his machine and disrespecting him.
I cant find a specific source, but many of his tweets express the anger. Ask bagel about it.

Monmouth polls which has been really just awesome in their WV poll showed Manchin doing substantially better than Ojeda in WV 3rd.

Florida is too purple to elect Rick Scott to Senate.

that doesnt indicate coat tails, though. If Ojeda were being pulled across by Manchin, and it was mostly Manchin, then yes, I would agree with you. But Manchin isnt really liked in WV-03, even though they would vote for him. Ojeda, however, is well liked, and doesnt really have any association with Manchin. Anyway, these are just semantics, both are probably going to win come Nov.

Fair points, I did not think of it that way. So I like Sargent, but I think Scheinberg would have had a better chance, what do you think?

I kinda agree, TBH. Sargent doesnt even really have a good page up. Scheinberg also looks like a sort of Ojeda, using his military experience and whatnot. Anyway, thought this is the most "D friendly district" Im pretty sure none of them would have had a good chance.

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I believe that we will win! I believe that we will win! I believe that we will win!

That's a huge load of bull**** all around. First of all, Ojeda is pro-coal. Secondly, Manchin isn't part of any machine. Thirdly, I don't recall Ojeda ever "disrespecting" Manchin. In fact, when reading through his social media I saw several instances of Ojeda praising Manchin.

Every high quality poll of this race has shown Nelson narrowly ahead. Lean d

It's going to be interesting to see how "America's most independent Senator" and Progressive Hero Gillum handle campaigning together.

Hand in hand. Sweeping reform to stagnant local Florida government and an independent approach to a polarized, ineffective congress is exactly what the doctor ordered. I can't put my finger on why (I think it's because how and the way he speaks) but Gillum feels as "old south" as it gets for me and he provides a fantastic, energetic contrast to the old dog in Nelson. A steady hand and a vibrant youth gives a best of both worlds vibe.

I can't say Gillum was my first choice but my GOD it feels good knowing I'm voting for true and through Floridians like myself. That is a massive bonus to me because at least I feel like I am voting for one of my peers unlike a Bush or Scott who were born, raised and/or educated elsewhere. Crist was born in PA but hell he lived in St. Pete since childhood. And you know what? That's all good to me

Beautiful poll! Race is halfway between Tilt and Lean D.