Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: ajc0918 on September 07, 2018, 08:41:44 am



Title: FL-StPete Polls: Gillum up slightly on DeSantis
Post by: ajc0918 on September 07, 2018, 08:41:44 am
If the election for Governor was held today, who would you vote for: Republican Ron DeSantis or Democrat Andrew Gillum?

Ron DeSantis: 47.3%
Andrew Gillum: 47.6%
Undecided: 5.1%

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_Governor_September6_R78S.pdf
 (http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_Governor_September6_R78S.pdf)
inb4 "decimals" I wanted to show the results as they presented them rather than rounding to Gillum 48, DeSantis 47. This is a toss up race.


Title: Re: FL-StPete Polls: Gillum up slightly on DeSantis
Post by: Politician on September 07, 2018, 08:49:13 am
RIP PNM


Title: Re: FL-StPete Polls: Gillum up slightly on DeSantis
Post by: Prolocutor Bagel23 on September 07, 2018, 09:03:52 am
Statistically insignificant, but nonetheless good to see.


Title: Re: FL-StPete Polls: Gillum up slightly on DeSantis
Post by: Councilor Zaybay on September 07, 2018, 09:09:46 am
Good to see Gillum up, and its also promising that the undecideds appear to be mostly minority voters, such as AAs, Latinos, and, strangely the largest group, Asians. Its also promising as the poll is more R friendly in registration than FL is.


Title: Re: FL-StPete Polls: Gillum up slightly on DeSantis
Post by: Prolocutor Bagel23 on September 07, 2018, 09:14:49 am
Good to see Gillum up, and its also promising that the undecideds appear to be mostly minority voters, such as AAs, Latinos, and, strangely the largest group, Asians. Its also promising as the poll is more R friendly in registration than FL is.

Yup, hopefully it pulls him over the top. RN I see Chad DeSantis losing 49.6-48.8.


Title: Re: FL-StPete Polls: Gillum up slightly on DeSantis
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on September 07, 2018, 10:51:44 am
DeSantis is pulling Scott down.


Title: FL: St.PetePolls: Gillum +1
Post by: IceSpear on September 07, 2018, 11:07:20 am
New Poll: Florida Governor by St.PetePolls on 2018-09-06 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2018/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220180906271)

Summary: D: 48%, R: 47%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_Governor_September6_R78S.pdf)


Title: Re: FL-StPete Polls: Gillum up slightly on DeSantis
Post by: Brindisi/Cunningham/Horn Republican on September 07, 2018, 03:10:46 pm
D e c i m a l s


Title: Re: FL-StPete Polls: Gillum up slightly on DeSantis
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on September 07, 2018, 06:57:10 pm
Good to see Gillum up, and its also promising that the undecideds appear to be mostly minority voters, such as AAs, Latinos, and, strangely the largest group, Asians. Its also promising as the poll is more R friendly in registration than FL is.

Did you not observe that DeSantis leads in every racial group except Black non Hispanics?

Why do you expect undecided AA to break to Gillum?  I suspect they may not like his tax increase proposals.

One truly interesting thing is how small the gender gap is.


Title: Re: FL-StPete Polls: Gillum up slightly on DeSantis
Post by: Councilor Zaybay on September 07, 2018, 07:31:54 pm
Good to see Gillum up, and its also promising that the undecideds appear to be mostly minority voters, such as AAs, Latinos, and, strangely the largest group, Asians. Its also promising as the poll is more R friendly in registration than FL is.

Did you not observe that DeSantis leads in every racial group except Black non Hispanics?

Why do you expect undecided AA to break to Gillum?  I suspect they may not like his tax increase proposals.

One truly interesting thing is how small the gender gap is.
Its not just this poll that I have found those to be the undecided group, it was also in Q, in PPP, and the other polls we have gotten. While the polls differ on who leads in which demographic group, the consensus is that AAs are going to Gillum, Hispanics are a tossup, and the white vote is split around 40/60. As to why I think the undecided AA vote will go to Gillum, its the same reason that Conservative voters in OK are more likely to go to DeSantis than Gillum. The gender gap is interesting, though.


Title: Re: FL-StPete Polls: Gillum up slightly on DeSantis
Post by: Beet on September 07, 2018, 07:37:16 pm
To be fair, the size of the gender gap doesn't really mean anything in terms of the election outcome. The Democrats have picked an all-male ticket and that's their choice. If they lose because of that, they have only themselves to blame.

As for undecideds being minorities, it's the same as in Georgia, I wouldn't put too much stock in it. Minorities are less likely to be informed about politics to begin with or care. It's just a sign that these voters are less likely to turn out. I wouldn't be surprised if many of these people simply don't show up.


Title: Re: FL-StPete Polls: Gillum up slightly on DeSantis
Post by: brucejoel99 on September 07, 2018, 08:17:30 pm
To be fair, the size of the gender gap doesn't really mean anything in terms of the election outcome. The Democrats have picked an all-male ticket and that's their choice. If they lose because of that, they have only themselves to blame.

As for undecideds being minorities, it's the same as in Georgia, I wouldn't put too much stock in it. Minorities are less likely to be informed about politics to begin with or care. It's just a sign that these voters are less likely to turn out. I wouldn't be surprised if many of these people simply don't show up.

As a Floridian Democrat who didn't even favor the selection of Chris King, I can assure you nobody is gonna decide not to vote for Gillum b/c he picked another guy as his running mate.


Title: Re: FL-StPete Polls: Gillum up slightly on DeSantis
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on September 07, 2018, 08:27:51 pm
FL may vote Dem while OH votes GOP, which is a real possibility, with GILLUM😁


Title: Re: FL-StPete Polls: Gillum up slightly on DeSantis
Post by: Politician on September 08, 2018, 09:49:05 am
RIP PNM

Yes, a one point lead is so commanding and we should start writing DeSantis’ obituary right now.
You have done nothing but write Gillum's obituary since he was nominated even though he has led in every single poll so far and the fundamentals point to a Democratic victory because "muh FBI".


Title: Re: FL-StPete Polls: Gillum up slightly on DeSantis
Post by: IceSpear on September 08, 2018, 03:51:50 pm
RIP PNM

Yes, a one point lead is so commanding and we should start writing DeSantis’ obituary right now.

Actually a 0.3% lead. lol


Title: Re: FL-StPete Polls: Gillum up slightly on DeSantis
Post by: Skill and Chance on September 09, 2018, 01:49:31 pm
I expect the final result to be something like this.  Gillum +0.5 and probably Scott +0.5 in the senate race, with the only other GOP pickup being ND.


Title: Re: FL-StPete Polls: Gillum up slightly on DeSantis
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on September 09, 2018, 02:09:55 pm
I expect the final result to be something like this.  Gillum +0.5 and probably Scott +0.5 in the senate race, with the only other GOP pickup being ND.


Scott is tied with Nelson, if DeSantis loses he will lose as well.