Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: LimoLiberal on September 11, 2018, 06:32:22 pm



Title: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: LimoLiberal on September 11, 2018, 06:32:22 pm
http://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/news/2018/09/11/decision-2018--gillum-and-desantis-to-face-close-race

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Gillum leads with independents 42-32.


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on September 11, 2018, 06:33:09 pm
YESSS


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Prolocutor Bagel23 on September 11, 2018, 06:34:26 pm
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Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: KingSweden on September 11, 2018, 06:39:11 pm
SurveyUSA is kinda meh but weve seen consistent Gillum leads in every poll


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: North Fulton Democrat on September 11, 2018, 06:42:37 pm
So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Socialists are Pro-Choice Fascists on September 11, 2018, 06:45:11 pm
So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: olowakandi on September 11, 2018, 06:58:43 pm
Conservatives say that the Gubernatorial map will reflect presidential map, not always, as Nelson is giving strength to GILLUM Momentum😁


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Former Senator Zaybay on September 11, 2018, 07:03:44 pm
Gillum has had a consistent lead this whole time, I wonder if this means that perhaps he is favored in this race? Nah, that FBI investigation will bring him down......eventually......any time now



So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.
Yeah, this doesnt exist


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on September 11, 2018, 07:05:43 pm
Gillum up 10 with independents and 27 with moderates.


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on September 11, 2018, 07:23:38 pm
SurveyUSA is kinda meh but weve seen consistent Gillum leads in every poll

Meh?  I've always thought they were very solid.


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on September 11, 2018, 07:25:24 pm
Gillum up 10 with independents and 27 with moderates.

But the pundits told me that progressive Democrats can't win moderates at all.


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on September 11, 2018, 07:29:32 pm
Tilt D, closer to Lean D than Toss-up.


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Julian Assange is a Snowflake on September 11, 2018, 07:34:08 pm
So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.

Yes it can.
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Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: North Fulton Democrat on September 11, 2018, 07:34:20 pm
So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.

Call it whatever you want--Bradley, Wilder, Shy Tory.  I hope you are right.   But this is Florida.  And take a look at the Vanity Fair article from 11/3/16.  Too bad the author was only partially correct in her assessment; otherwise, we wouldn't be dealing with a President Trump today.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Beto Bro on September 11, 2018, 08:07:12 pm
So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.

Call it whatever you want--Bradley, Wilder, Shy Tory.  I hope you are right.   But this is Florida.  And take a look at the Vanity Fair article from 11/3/16.  Too bad the author was only partially correct in her assessment; otherwise, we wouldn't be dealing with a President Trump today.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect
No offense, but this article proves nothing. A black man has won Florida in a statewide contest twice in the past 10 years. Polarization is as high as ever. There is no reason a Republican would lie and say they are voting for Gillum.


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Julian Assange is a Snowflake on September 11, 2018, 08:14:24 pm
So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.

Call it whatever you want--Bradley, Wilder, Shy Tory.  I hope you are right.   But this is Florida.  And take a look at the Vanity Fair article from 11/3/16.  Too bad the author was only partially correct in her assessment; otherwise, we wouldn't be dealing with a President Trump today.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect

No Bradley Effect occurred with Obama in Florida.


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Badger on September 11, 2018, 08:15:32 pm
So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.
The Bradley effect is nonexistent.

Call it whatever you want--Bradley, Wilder, Shy Tory.  I hope you are right.   But this is Florida.  And take a look at the Vanity Fair article from 11/3/16.  Too bad the author was only partially correct in her assessment; otherwise, we wouldn't be dealing with a President Trump today.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect

No Bradley Effect occurred with Obama in Florida.

Or anywhere else for that matter.


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: TX more competitive than OH on September 11, 2018, 08:20:11 pm
Im skeptical of the Bradley effect. Why would Republican voters need to pretend they arent racist anymore in the age of Trump?


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on September 11, 2018, 08:35:46 pm
Lol the "Bradley effect"? Atlas still trying to convince themselves that Gillum has no chance winning?


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Former Senator Zaybay on September 11, 2018, 08:41:34 pm
Lol the "Bradley effect"? Atlas still trying to convince themselves that Gillum has no chance winning?
Yeah, this is really dumb. There is no Bradley effect, or Shy Tory effect, or whatever. Gillum is leading. Deal with it.


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Mondale on September 11, 2018, 08:56:05 pm
Lol the "Bradley effect"? Atlas still trying to convince themselves that Gillum has no chance winning?

The Bradley effect probably used to exist in the 80s and 90s but doesn't anymore.

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There is fairly strong academic evidence that the Bradley Effect used to exist back in the 1980s and early 1990s. However, the evidence is just as strong that it does not exist any longer. The people who vouch for the existence of the Bradley Effect are not wrong so much as they are relying on dated evidence.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect/


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: olowakandi on September 11, 2018, 08:57:44 pm
Booker can win FL in 2020, too.


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Very Legal & Very Cool on September 11, 2018, 08:58:50 pm
So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.

The Bradley effect has been thoroughly discounted.


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Beto Bro on September 11, 2018, 09:02:26 pm
If anything Gillum is going to overperform.


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: NOVA Green on September 11, 2018, 09:05:02 pm
What's interesting is that this is an LV screen model, as opposed to an RV model.

Although Florida is an extremely tricky State to poll, because of a wide range of Metro Areas, fast changing population and demographic changes (Much like Texas), we are starting to see some interesting numbers in recent polls contrary to political conventional wisdom (CW).

I wonder to what extent the "Medicare for All" part of his platform is resonating among Senior Anglo swing voters, in a State with a high % of retirees that are quite comfortable with Medicare???

https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2018/aarp-politico-florida-poll.html


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: North Fulton Democrat on September 11, 2018, 09:13:42 pm
What's interesting is that this is an LV screen model, as opposed to an RV model.

Although Florida is an extremely tricky State to poll, because of a wide range of Metro Areas, fast changing population and demographic changes (Much like Texas), we are starting to see some interesting numbers in recent polls contrary to political conventional wisdom (CW).

I wonder to what extent the "Medicare for All" part of his platform is resonating among Senior Anglo swing voters, in a State with a high % of retirees that are quite comfortable with Medicare???

https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2018/aarp-politico-florida-poll.html

The "Medicare for All" would probably have more of an impact with the 50-64 year old voter--where health insurance premiums are ridiculous with high deductibles, narrow networks, and poor coverage.    To create this option may be resonating with these voters--by getting access to Medicare, they would effectively get a larger access to doctors and hospitals (over 90% of doctors participate in Medicare) and have a higher level of coverage than what is available with private insurance HMOs.


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on September 11, 2018, 09:25:06 pm
To the people freaking out about the Bradley effect: It doesn't exist anymore. In fact, the 2008 exit polls suggest that being black was actually a plus for Obama.


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Former Senator Zaybay on September 11, 2018, 09:25:19 pm
What's interesting is that this is an LV screen model, as opposed to an RV model.

Although Florida is an extremely tricky State to poll, because of a wide range of Metro Areas, fast changing population and demographic changes (Much like Texas), we are starting to see some interesting numbers in recent polls contrary to political conventional wisdom (CW).

I wonder to what extent the "Medicare for All" part of his platform is resonating among Senior Anglo swing voters, in a State with a high % of retirees that are quite comfortable with Medicare???

https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2018/aarp-politico-florida-poll.html

I never thought about it like that, and it does make sense. We have seen large swings among seniors and older voters, and it could be the D emphasis on healthcare thats causing this.


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: olowakandi on September 11, 2018, 09:58:42 pm
No Bradley affect in OK and KS either, Gillum only helps Nelson


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 11, 2018, 10:10:08 pm
What are the Senate numbers?


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Invisible Obama on September 11, 2018, 10:28:16 pm
The Bradley Effect never existed. The polling was only wrong in that race because absentees were not properly reflected in the sample.


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: olowakandi on September 11, 2018, 10:35:47 pm
Nelson will win after all, and this poll shows no good news for him, Scott


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on September 11, 2018, 10:38:48 pm
Here's how this race is Likely R because of Gillum:


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on September 11, 2018, 10:57:00 pm
B..B....BUT ATLAS TOLD ME GILLUM CAN'T WIN!


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Snek! on September 12, 2018, 06:59:36 am
B..B....BUT ATLAS TOLD ME GILLUM CAN'T WIN!


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: olowakandi on September 12, 2018, 07:45:42 am
Voters want a new Gov, and want to bring back Rick Scott


Title: Re: FL-SurveyUSA/Spectrum News: Gillum +4
Post by: Snek! on September 12, 2018, 07:57:26 am
Voters want a new Gov, and want to bring back Rick Scott

Gillum is running 6 points ahead  of Nelson now?