Talk Elections

http://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/news/2018/09/11/decision-2018--gillum-and-desantis-to-face-close-race

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Gillum leads with independents 42-32.

YESSS

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SurveyUSA is kinda meh but we’ve seen consistent Gillum leads in every poll

So the polls are showing a small but consistent Gillum lead.  But the Bradley effect cannot be discounted.

The Bradley effect is nonexistent.

Conservatives say that the Gubernatorial map will reflect presidential map, not always, as Nelson is giving strength to GILLUM Momentum😁

Gillum has had a consistent lead this whole time, I wonder if this means that perhaps he is favored in this race? Nah, that FBI investigation will bring him down......eventually......any time now



Yeah, this doesnt exist

Gillum up 10 with independents and 27 with moderates.

Meh?  I've always thought they were very solid.

But the pundits told me that progressive Democrats can't win moderates at all.

Tilt D, closer to Lean D than Toss-up.

Yes it can.
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Call it whatever you want--Bradley, Wilder, Shy Tory.  I hope you are right.   But this is Florida.  And take a look at the Vanity Fair article from 11/3/16.  Too bad the author was only partially correct in her assessment; otherwise, we wouldn't be dealing with a President Trump today.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect

No offense, but this article proves nothing. A black man has won Florida in a statewide contest twice in the past 10 years. Polarization is as high as ever. There is no reason a Republican would lie and say they are voting for Gillum.

No Bradley Effect occurred with Obama in Florida.

Or anywhere else for that matter.

Lol the "Bradley effect"? Atlas still trying to convince themselves that Gillum has no chance winning?

Yeah, this is really dumb. There is no Bradley effect, or Shy Tory effect, or whatever. Gillum is leading. Deal with it.

The Bradley effect probably used to exist in the 80s and 90s but doesn't anymore.

Booker can win FL in 2020, too.

The Bradley effect has been thoroughly discounted.

If anything Gillum is going to overperform.

What's interesting is that this is an LV screen model, as opposed to an RV model.

Although Florida is an extremely tricky State to poll, because of a wide range of Metro Areas, fast changing population and demographic changes (Much like Texas), we are starting to see some interesting numbers in recent polls contrary to political conventional wisdom (CW).

I wonder to what extent the "Medicare for All" part of his platform is resonating among Senior Anglo swing voters, in a State with a high % of retirees that are quite comfortable with Medicare???

https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2018/aarp-politico-florida-poll.html

The "Medicare for All" would probably have more of an impact with the 50-64 year old voter--where health insurance premiums are ridiculous with high deductibles, narrow networks, and poor coverage.    To create this option may be resonating with these voters--by getting access to Medicare, they would effectively get a larger access to doctors and hospitals (over 90% of doctors participate in Medicare) and have a higher level of coverage than what is available with private insurance HMOs.

To the people freaking out about the Bradley effect: It doesn't exist anymore. In fact, the 2008 exit polls suggest that being black was actually a plus for Obama.

I never thought about it like that, and it does make sense. We have seen large swings among seniors and older voters, and it could be the D emphasis on healthcare thats causing this.

No Bradley affect in OK and KS either, Gillum only helps Nelson

What are the Senate numbers?

The Bradley Effect never existed. The polling was only wrong in that race because absentees were not properly reflected in the sample.

Nelson will win after all, and this poll shows no good news for him, Scott

Here's how this race is Likely R because of Gillum:

B..B....BUT ATLAS TOLD ME GILLUM CAN'T WIN!

Voters want a new Gov, and want to bring back Rick Scott

Gillum is running 6 points ahead  of Nelson now?