Talk Elections

https://twitter.com/rudnicknoah/status/1039746446461952000

Full poll: https://www.dropbox.com/s/o18etzyrxh0qif6/Press%20Version%20SENATE%20report%20ONLY.pdf

Where is your God now, Atlas?

After Labor Day and till the end of September the White House party always recovers, just look at Morris's graph.
I've mentioned this almost a dozen times the past year and I fully expect the usual suspects to start panicking again when Democratic numbers drop in the next days.

Not regurgitating sh**tty and dated memes, hopefully.

Sinema has got to be one of, if not the most overrated Democratic candidate of this election cycle (and it’s not as if there’s a lack of competition in this regard). She’ll probably still win because of the national environment, but there’s no way this flips before NV. Tilt/Lean D, but if more polls show McSally ahead, I’ll move it to Tossup.

Sinema was up 4 in their last poll, and 6 in the one before that. Yikes. She really might blow this. I'm sad to say I've been right all these months, yet it was brushed off because of muh June polls.

Sinema completely squandered the year long head start she had by running endless moderate hero ads and never laying a finger on McSally. And this is what she has to show for it. What an awful candidate and a terrible campaign. Yet Atlas insisted AZ was more likely to flip than NV. ::) ::) ::)

She said she wouldn't vote for Schumer as leader, just like Grimes said. Something you say after you are elected, not before and Grimes paid a price for a gaffee

She should still win in this environment, but she's certainly doing her damnedest to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Whoever has run her campaign should probably be barred from any Democratic campaigns in the future. Along with whoever thought of the "court Reasonable Republicans" and the "When they go low we go high" strategies from 2016.

Interesting, but I expected a tightening here.

^^^ What an absolutely pathetic candidate.

but technocracy timmy told me you need to be a ~sensible moderate~ :) :) :) to win in az

If Democrats nominated Abboud instead, McSally would be up by 8-10 points and this race would have been a repeat of the 2010 Deleware Senate Race where the GOP threw a winnable race by nominating the tea party candidate over the moderate hero.

Tilt D --->  Likely R

Which is why Hiral Tipirnini kept a district that Trump won by 21 points to a 5 point win by running as a solid progressive. ::)

Not that it would've mattered what she ran as. People don't vote based on ideology, ESPECIALLY not "swing voters." Sinema is a garbage candidate not because she's running as a moderate hero necessarily (though I personally find it annoying, and I highly doubt I'm alone there), but because she's done nothing but run boring ads about how moderate she is and let McSally get by completely unscathed. McSally has landed more blows on Sinema in the last week than Sinema has on McSally in the last year.

It's absolutely insane that she had a year to gather an enormous campaign warchest and attack McSally during the primaries, when she was at her most vulnerable and when Republicans were far more likely to want to listen to negatives about her.

Sinema never ran a single notable negative ad against McSally until after the primary. An absolute disgrace of a campaign.

Anyway, this is clearly Lean R at this point. Again, as I stated in the other thread and all the hacks attacked me over, I will accept my accolades when McSally wins 52-47 in November.

As I have previously said. This is many undecided voters, many of whom were Arpaio/Ward or bust voters warming up to McSally or voting for her for partisan loyalty reasons.

Im not going to start drawing conclusions from 1 pollster, as others seem to be doing here, but in the case that this race is back to pure tossup, then I have no one else to blame than Sinema. Turns out just being a moderate doesnt win votes, as many people thought, and you have to actually appeal to voters, real shocker. Anyway, she probably wins due to national environment.

A single poll from a mediocre pollster shows McSally up a mere 3 points and people go “LEAN R LEAN R.” Peak Atlas.

But wait zaybay told me only Democrats come home and not Republicans.

Great Poll for McSally.

It's a poll that gives Trump's job approval in Arizona: 51 Approve 47 Disapprove.

So I guess Sinema will be fine.

Isn't this a Republican affiliated pollster?

I don't know, but Trump definitely doesn't have a +4 job approval in Arizona.

Still very Lean D.

Meh, I'll wait for a quality poll.

Sienna has a scandal brewing. I don't approvals in the state meaning that much. Dems are completetive in 34-40 GOP districts based on right track/wrong track number

Damn it, I knew the primary was making it look like Sinema was stronger than she was.

This isn't lean D. Every Political Handicapper like Cook, Nathan Gonzalez or CNN & NBC has this Race as Toss Up.

She didn't have an official primary opponent until a week ago. Even with her lead in the primary polls, there was little she could realistically do to attack McSally. That's over.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton-5832.html

If they are, they don't do a very good job showing numbers that are better for the GOP than in reality

Lean D------Tossup

Things seem to be getting better and better for McSally.

Yes, and AZ hasn't yet elected a Democratic SENATOR

https://www.dropbox.com/s/o18etzyrxh0qif6/Press%20Version%20SENATE%20report%20ONLY.pdf

OK lol no way Trump's approvals are at 51/47.

Sinema is at 47/38, McSally 49/39. This actually isn't a bad poll for Kyrsten at all.

ATLAS

That being said, I do think McSally is enjoying some consolidation of the base after the primary

If Trump's numbers are +4 on election day, McSally will probably win. Good thing for Sinema, it seems like an outlier.

LOL Trump’s net approval is absolutely not higher than his margin of victory in 2016 was.

Obama had a 60% approval rating in MA when Scott Brown won. Its not that important

That was a special election , those election always have very weird results.


The fact is this race is very similar to 2010 Delaware if Castle won the primaries .

That was a special election


If that election took place in Nov 2010 instead of Jan 2010 the Dems would have won that seat handily

Thats not even remotely comparable to this.

The MA special had less to do with the national environment and more to do with Coakley being awful.

Sinema's fate may very well depend on how popular Trump is at the given moment.

Worth noting how in 2016, the polls swung from a dead heat to McCain leading by around 20, and he eventually won by 13. Sinema's not out of the race, but it was foolish to think that this race was more likely to flip than Nevada. This race is quite reminiscent of FL-SEN 2016: Two opportunistic empty suits running, one moderate hero Democrat desperate to prove how "moderate" they are, and Republican who gets the label "moderate" despite being very conservative.

Coakleys loss can be attributed more to running in 2 GOP wave years: 2010 & 2014 then her quality as a candidate. She was no more worse a candidate than lackluster Blunt, Johnson, Toomey, etc... They just happen to have better timing than her.

Bruh....special elections correlate pretty well to midterm performance.

If national environment meant everything and candidate quality didnt matter than the GOP would have won Deleware, Colorado and Nevada in 2010 as well but lost it due to nominating the Tea Party candidate

In a day and age of negative campaigning and with the disapproval an cynicism people have about elections, campaigns and government in general I can't believe this is a predominant approach:


Part of this is going in mi sig.

There was nothing stopping her from blasting McSally on the airwaves while the Republican primary was still ongoing. You soften up McSally's image and also have an outside chance at damaging her badly enough that a nut like Ward gets nominated instead. Win/Win. She should've taken lessons from Claire McCaskill, who is ten times the politician that Sinema will ever be.

Uh oh, looks like Atlas is freaking out again

OH is a known republican pollster that releases polls to push narratives of "everything is fine" especially with Ducey and the legislature.

It's mostly just Icespear.

Their polls in 2016: Clinton +5, Clinton +1, Tie
Their polls in 2018: Sinema +1, Sinema +6, Sinema +4

Yeah, sounds like a real Republican hack shill pollster.

This. Junk poll!

Anyone who releases a poll with bad results for Ds is automatically a Republican hack pollster, how long have you been here yet you still don’t know this?

theyre simply a local pollster who has been hired by far more republicans than democrats is all im saying.  And they arent necessarily good, i mean those 2016 numbers lmao.

I really wish Gallego would've ran for this seat, McSally is going to squeeze everything she can from her military experience. Whether you want to admit it or not the 'Pink Tutu' ad is effective messaging and we'll see more like it.

We already are seeing much more like it. McSally is completely hammering Sinema on the airwaves, while Sinema continues to dither by talking about how moderate she is, as if anyone cares.

https://youtu.be/Jw2bLJ2Ws4E
https://youtu.be/nScY346Nyb0

Well I look like a real asshole for keeping it Safe D all this time

Phoenix voters know Sinema much better than McSally who was introduced to them 3 months ago. When Sinema ran against Wendy Rogers(McSally 2.0) the same attacks were made on sinema and none of them stuck, the same election year when Ducey carried CD-09

Heres where deomographics do hurt Sinema, McSally has better name rec in Tuscon, a smaller portion of the state but typically dems have to run up the margins here and Sinema likely will not be able to do that.

Indeed. The OH Predictive Insights giveth, and the OH Predictive Insights taketh...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=290033.0

Gee, maybe they're just a bad pollster...Nope, Sinema is done for.