Talk Elections

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/09/12/fox-news-poll-blackburn-up-by-three-points-in-tennessee-senate-race.html

LV
Blackburn (GOP): 47
Bredesen (Dem): 44

tossup rn, but will be lean r by election time

Shouldn't Bredesen be at 44? Anyway, not looking great. Texas might actually be more likely to flip, at this point, but Lean R still seems right for this race.

Who could've POSSIBLY predicted partisan Republicans coming home in Tennessee? Who, I ask you? WHO?!

woah, the favorables are totally different

Seems to confirm that NBC tends to be a bit rosy for democrats. Bredesen will easily but up the best Democratic performance since 2006 but likely come up short by 4-5 points

Lean R.

IKR

I believe this is Safe R. Senator Evan Bayh says hi.

Right? Seems like some Dems can't acknowledge plain reality.

Very Republican sample on this poll btw. Surprised Blackburn is only by 3 with it.

Nah, Fox (despite the horrid news portion of their services) is pretty solid with polling. Stop the unskewing just because the poll is disappointing to the Blue Wave Cult.

I don't think one or the other is necessarily more accurate, I'm just saying one is wrong.

Senator Harold Ford Jr. also says hi.

Yes I think that will be the final margin.

Rehberg was never a senator (jk)

One poll has Bredesen up 2 and another has Blackburn up 3. Survey says....it’s a toss up

Eh, the GOP will probably come home for Blackburn in the end.

Blackburn's favorable is way higher (and Breseden's lower) than the last poll, and yet the difference is only like 5, so it's pretty clearly a tossup right now.

Now y'all jis wayt a minit rit thar en hod yur hawses. That ol phil bridirsin, he about dun fixin to hiud inter de hils en hallers uf gud ol middul tennacee. En he gunna go russle up dem ol blur dowgs like yu aint dun ceen cins der 1970s bak win dem der dimincrats stil rispetted whayt fok en dinnut mek funn of har ruril fok tok lak dis, naught lak it has bin wit dat blak fok stuf en naught lak dat der herild foard and dat der obammer dit dos dimincrats bin havin ricintly. Dat phil bridirsin, he differnt dan dat. He gunnar dun remin pipl of al dem der dams dat franklin roservilt bilt wit dat tenicee valee thority en den he gunner dun win tinersee en it guner be a lanslayd mah frinds. yu jis wet en see, ahh til yu jis wet en cee.

Bayh is a terrible comparison. His post-Senate career was a disaster, optics-wise and not at all comparable to Bredesen. And if that wasn't enough, there is a big difference in the election environment, not to mention that presidential elections do not work the same as midterms.

Maybe there is another example out there that works, but Bayh doesn't.

If there is a good scenario for Bredesen, it is that he ends up like Heitkamp in 2012. Nobody seriously thinks he wins, but then he somehow pulls it out in the end in an unexpected stunner after everyone has given up. That is the only way he wins. Nobody should actually be expecting him to win or thinking that it is likely. This is Tennessee we are talking about here, not some swing state, not even some lean R state, but Tennessee.

If the polls end up saying Blackburn is ahead, sure. But if he pulls ahead that won't mean we'll be expecting that he loses.

Now this we should take as gospel over NBC because?

This race is lean R...until the next Bredesen lead, of course then it'll go back to tossup, and so on and so forth.

These are fox polls, should be taken as respect to such, more conservative bent.

Tennessee is a tossup race. It's not that hard to understand.

Toss-up, but gun to my head I say Blackburn wins 51-47%. The coalition that elected Bredesen in '02 and '06 is no longer there in this partisan era. I don't say he's guaranteed to lose, but the chances as I asses them are 1/2 in Blackburn's favor.

This. I think Blackburn pulls it out in the end.

LOL!

Safe Blackburn.

They nailed Bredesen's percentage, but Blackburn got all the undecideds. No surprise there. This is what happens with FOX Polls!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Tennessee,_2018

Nope.