Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on September 15, 2018, 12:10:43 AM



Title: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: Tender Branson on September 15, 2018, 12:10:43 AM
Sept. 12-13, among 680 likely voters, by Hoffman Research Group:

Quote
Table 3. If the General Election for Governor of Oregon were held today, would you vote for Republican party candidate Knute Buehler, Constitution Party candidate Aaron Auer, Democratic & Working Families party candidate Kate Brown, Libertarian party candidate Nick Chen, or Independent party candidate Patrick Starnes? (ORDER OF CANDIDATES ROTATED)

46% Kate Brown (D-Inc.)
36% Knute Buehler (R)
  4% Patrick Starnes (I)
  1% Nick Chen (L)
  1% Aaron Auer (C)
12% Undecided

With leaners, it's 49-39-5-2-1 for Brown.

Brown has a 42-41 favorable rating, Buehler is at 27-27.

https://www.opb.org/news/article/oregon-poll-results-governors-race-sanctuary-law


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: ON Progressive on September 15, 2018, 12:14:24 AM
But what about Gravis and a pollster that had Trump winning Oregon?


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: IceSpear on September 15, 2018, 12:14:43 AM
But the poll that said Trump would win Oregon told me that Brown would lose. How could this be?!


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: IceSpear on September 15, 2018, 12:15:06 AM
But what about Gravis and a pollster that had Trump winning Oregon?

Damn, beat me by 20 seconds...


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: Xing on September 15, 2018, 12:15:44 AM
B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe D. News at 11.


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: Tender Branson on September 15, 2018, 12:16:47 AM
There's also this:

Quote
The Buehler campaign declined to comment on the survey.  But Republicans officials were quick to release portions of a poll conducted for No Supermajorities PAC, which is helping fund GOP legislative campaigns.

That Sept. 6-11 survey of 2,831 voters, by Causeway Solutions of Washington, D.C., showed Buehler at 43 percent and Brown at 41 percent. The margin of error is just under 2 percentage points.


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on September 15, 2018, 12:22:31 AM
B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe DStrong Likely D. News at 11.


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 15, 2018, 12:25:11 AM
B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe DStrong Likely D. News at 11.

Sleeper race is Cuomo or Newsom losing, more so Cuomo


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on September 15, 2018, 12:28:43 AM
B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe DStrong Likely D. News at 11.

Sleeper race is Cuomo or Newsom losing, more so Cuomo

Cuomo and Newsom would not lose even if they touched children.


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 15, 2018, 12:32:05 AM
Yes, Cuomo can


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: Technocracy Timmy on September 15, 2018, 12:34:06 AM
B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe DStrong Likely D. News at 11.

Sleeper race is Cuomo or Newsom losing, more so Cuomo

Cuomo and Newsom would not lose even if they touched children.

Are we still making this stupid argument after Roy Moore lost in a state that was seemingly invincible for Republicans? Californians and New Yorkers aren’t as brain dead stupid as Alabama republicans.


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: IceSpear on September 15, 2018, 12:51:06 AM
B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe DStrong Likely D. News at 11.

Sleeper race is Cuomo or Newsom losing, more so Cuomo

Cuomo and Newsom would not lose even if they touched children.

Are we still making this stupid argument after Roy Moore lost in a state that was seemingly invincible for Republicans? Californians and New Yorkers aren’t as brain dead stupid as Alabama republicans.


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: Southern Delegate matthew27 on September 15, 2018, 01:02:49 AM
Great news!!! Go Kate!


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: NOVA Green on September 15, 2018, 01:08:57 AM
I will have to see a few more polls before I move this into the +7.5% D category, but it does appear that Buehler's "faux hipness" campaign targeting Indies in Metro PDX, and to a lesser extent in downstate smaller Metro areas such as Salem (Marion/Polk), Eugene-Springfield (Lane), and in the Mid Valley places such as Linn-Benton Counties is starting to scrape deep into the bottom of the barrel.

Simply put, it's not the Year for a "Liberal Republican" to unseat a relatively new Progressive Governor of Oregon in a State that generally has extremely high levels of voter turnout thanks to AVR and VBM....

Trump obviously is something in the back of every potential Dem > R swing voters minds in Oregon, regardless of the suburbs of PDX, the Cities of the Valley, Southern Oregon and the Coastal parts of the state.


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 15, 2018, 01:13:30 AM
I think Mills and Cuomo have a lot to worry about than Kate Brown, NE has elected Moderates more so than centrist Dems like Mills or Cuomo.


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: Politician on September 15, 2018, 07:40:14 AM
Lean D->Likely D.


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: Skye on September 15, 2018, 07:52:42 AM
2016 redux?


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 15, 2018, 02:12:43 PM
Surprised it's only 10 points tbh.


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: Blackacre on September 15, 2018, 02:39:17 PM
Yeah, this is a Likely D race, I see that now.

BTW Cuomo isn't losing this year. He's beyond safe.


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on September 17, 2018, 07:32:37 PM
B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe D. News at 11.


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: Hydera on September 17, 2018, 10:25:54 PM

Its an improvement from 7% in the 2016 Governor race. Plus Oregon has a lot of conservative rural areas and towns doesnt it?


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: NOVA Green on September 17, 2018, 11:36:25 PM

Its an improvement from 7% in the 2016 Governor race. Plus Oregon has a lot of conservative rural areas and towns doesnt it?

This should give you a decent starting point about Oregon Politics....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5386692#msg5386692

Here is another really good poster on another Forum, who actually inspired some of my works when it comes to looking at Oregon from a more holistic perspective....

https://www.dailykos.com/news/OregonPoliticalGeography

Bottom line: Frequent divergence between Presidential / US Senate / US REP results vs Statewide Oregon Elections, but "Conservative" in Oregon even in rural areas isn't exactly what it means in many other places in the US.   

Hope that helps provide further research angles, especially when we start to look at "Upstate" and "Downstate" dynamics.....


Title: Re: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
Post by: Hydera on September 18, 2018, 11:59:46 AM
https://twitter.com/symscons/status/1024100768398241792

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Also my guess is that Gubernatorial Dem candidates tend to underperform compared to the Presidential party due to the burbs.


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I wonder if theres a difference between how Oregonians see the National candidate and the Gubernatorial candidate. Perhaps the Gubernatorial dem candidate is seen as more leftist on economics which might get better results in rural/lower density areas but not as good in suburban areas.