Talk Elections

An RV poll done by YouGov found:

47% Tester

45% Rosendale

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8loxdb6jae/cbs_20180916_MT_finalforrelease.pdf

Lean D, closer to Likely

Tester is doomed, long live King Rosendale. Etc, etc.

19. Whether or not you agree with them, if the Democrats have majority control of Congress next year, do you feel it would:

Force both parties to work together and compromise: 36%
Lead to stalemate between the parties: 46%
Not change things much at all: 18%

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Options #1 and #3 combined beating out Option #2 is beneficial for Tester.

About what I expected.

Clearly they left out two zeroes, and it's actually Tester +200 ;)

/s

Anyway, Tester is still favored, but this race is a little too close for comfort.

WHAT?!?!?!?!?!?!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111111111111111111111111!!!!!!!!!!!!!!? NO WAY!!1!

Still Safe #populist <3/D/retail politixx.

Lean D (ignore the sarcasm near me). Tester knows what he's doing well.

daddy Rosendale needs to come back to us in MD.

Looks like the undecideds are poised to break well enough for Tester as well. 53% approval, 2 to 1 say Trump tariffs hurt, about what I expect, a 3 point Tester win in the end. 50-47.

Interesting polling tidbit: Trump Approval on his handling of race relations is only -1 (43-44).

#TesterLessVulnerableThanSmith

Maryland Matt for MD-GOV 2022 :P He’d definitely have a much better chance of winning that race than even winning Garfield or Petroleum against Teaster.

Which race does Rosendale have a better chance of winning? This Senate race or NH-SEN 2020? ;)

Oof, both states are elastic libertarian havens, but I’d say NH-SEN, not just because Shaheen is a much weaker incumbent, but because NH at least has a few pretty Republican towns, whereas in Montana even hardcore Republicans are pretty much swing voters who only care about small government and have pretty libertarian views in general, but particularly on social issues. Honestly, Seattle is arguably more conservative than rural Montana, tbh.

Was this poll before or after that big scandal broke about the NRA's illegal coordination with Rosendale, and Rosendale confusing Article II with the Second Amendment?

Tester will win by 5

What a junk poll. Sad! #LikelyDMontana

Let's just wait and see here.  Still Lean R due to the state fundamentals and they literally rewarded someone who assaulted a reporter.

I’m sorry, but this is a very, very dumb comment for many reasons.

AG Foxx is likely to become GOV in 2020, this can be an upset instead of IN or ND going GOP.

I'm still not sure whether this is a tossup or lean D.

You could probably respond to 90% of hofoid's posts with the very same sentence.

Tester is definitely favored. No way is this the critical seat for the Democrats taking back the Senate.

I will leave a YouGov poll of RVs for others to analyze....

Looking forward to hopefully a poll of MT that actually provides us will real data in an extremely ornery state that is very difficult to poll.

Waiting on more polls from MT, and even then we likely won't have a great idea of how it will actually go down in November (See ND and IN as well....)

Fortunately for you, Tester isn’t as complacent and overconfident as most of his supporters.

I agree that this is one of the more predictable races, though. Rosendale could win (narrowly) if Republicans are having than better than expected night, but in a Democratic year he likely loses by 3-5 points or something like that. Tester winning by double digits was never going to happen (which should have been obvious to everyone).