Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Councilor Zaybay on September 16, 2018, 10:43:06 am



Title: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: Councilor Zaybay on September 16, 2018, 10:43:06 am
An RV poll done by YouGov found:

47% Tester

45% Rosendale

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8loxdb6jae/cbs_20180916_MT_finalforrelease.pdf


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: АndriуValeriovich on September 16, 2018, 10:43:43 am
Lean D, closer to Likely


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: VirginiŠ on September 16, 2018, 10:43:49 am
Tester is doomed, long live King Rosendale. Etc, etc.


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: The Saint on September 16, 2018, 10:50:06 am
19. Whether or not you agree with them, if the Democrats have majority control of Congress next year, do you feel it would:

Force both parties to work together and compromise: 36%
Lead to stalemate between the parties: 46%
Not change things much at all: 18%

-----

Options #1 and #3 combined beating out Option #2 is beneficial for Tester.


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: Bagel23 on September 16, 2018, 11:13:45 am
About what I expected.


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on September 16, 2018, 11:18:23 am
Clearly they left out two zeroes, and it's actually Tester +200 ;)

/s

Anyway, Tester is still favored, but this race is a little too close for comfort.


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 16, 2018, 11:28:50 am
WHAT?!?!?!?!?!?!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111111111111111111111111!!!!!!!!!!!!!!? NO WAY!!1!

Still Safe #populist <3/D/retail politixx.


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: Politician on September 16, 2018, 12:19:53 pm
Lean D (ignore the sarcasm near me). Tester knows what he's doing well.


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on September 16, 2018, 12:22:29 pm
Tester is doomed, long live King Rosendale. Etc, etc.
daddy Rosendale needs to come back to us in MD.


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: Bagel23 on September 16, 2018, 12:26:35 pm
Looks like the undecideds are poised to break well enough for Tester as well. 53% approval, 2 to 1 say Trump tariffs hurt, about what I expect, a 3 point Tester win in the end. 50-47.


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: Young Conservative on September 16, 2018, 01:10:38 pm
Interesting polling tidbit: Trump Approval on his handling of race relations is only -1 (43-44).



Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: IceSpear on September 16, 2018, 02:08:06 pm
#TesterLessVulnerableThanSmith


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 16, 2018, 02:08:52 pm
Tester is doomed, long live King Rosendale. Etc, etc.
daddy Rosendale needs to come back to us in MD.

Maryland Matt for MD-GOV 2022 :P Heíd definitely have a much better chance of winning that race than even winning Garfield or Petroleum against Teaster.


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on September 16, 2018, 02:14:04 pm
Tester is doomed, long live King Rosendale. Etc, etc.
daddy Rosendale needs to come back to us in MD.

Maryland Matt for MD-GOV 2022 :P Heíd definitely have a much better chance of winning that race than even winning Garfield or Petroleum against Teaster.

Which race does Rosendale have a better chance of winning? This Senate race or NH-SEN 2020? ;)


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 16, 2018, 03:04:18 pm
Which race does Rosendale have a better chance of winning? This Senate race or NH-SEN 2020?

Oof, both states are elastic libertarian havens, but Iíd say NH-SEN, not just because Shaheen is a much weaker incumbent, but because NH at least has a few pretty Republican towns, whereas in Montana even hardcore Republicans are pretty much swing voters who only care about small government and have pretty libertarian views in general, but particularly on social issues. Honestly, Seattle is arguably more conservative than rural Montana, tbh.


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 16, 2018, 03:48:50 pm
Was this poll before or after that big scandal broke about the NRA's illegal coordination with Rosendale, and Rosendale confusing Article II with the Second Amendment?


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: Cory Booker on September 16, 2018, 05:56:37 pm
Tester will win by 5


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: TarHeelDem on September 17, 2018, 03:25:42 pm
What a junk poll. Sad! #LikelyDMontana


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on September 17, 2018, 03:27:21 pm
Let's just wait and see here.  Still Lean R due to the state fundamentals and they literally rewarded someone who assaulted a reporter.


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 17, 2018, 03:28:37 pm
Let's just wait and see here.  Still Lean R due to the state fundamentals and they literally rewarded someone who assaulted a reporter.

Iím sorry, but this is a very, very dumb comment for many reasons.


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: Cory Booker on September 17, 2018, 03:29:43 pm
Let's just wait and see here.  Still Lean R due to the state fundamentals and they literally rewarded someone who assaulted a reporter.

Iím sorry, but this is a very, very dumb comment for many reasons.

AG Foxx is likely to become GOV in 2020, this can be an upset instead of IN or ND going GOP.


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on September 17, 2018, 07:46:45 pm
I'm still not sure whether this is a tossup or lean D.


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: Arch on September 17, 2018, 07:48:49 pm
Let's just wait and see here.  Still Lean R due to the state fundamentals and they literally rewarded someone who assaulted a reporter.

Iím sorry, but this is a very, very dumb comment for many reasons.

You could probably respond to 90% of hofoid's posts with the very same sentence.


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: ○∙◄☻•tπ[╪AV┼cVÍ└ on September 17, 2018, 09:54:59 pm
I'm still not sure whether this is a tossup or lean D.

Tester is definitely favored. No way is this the critical seat for the Democrats taking back the Senate.


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: NOVA Green on September 17, 2018, 10:05:30 pm
I will leave a YouGov poll of RVs for others to analyze....

Looking forward to hopefully a poll of MT that actually provides us will real data in an extremely ornery state that is very difficult to poll.

Waiting on more polls from MT, and even then we likely won't have a great idea of how it will actually go down in November (See ND and IN as well....)


Title: Re: MT: YouGov/CBS - Tester +2
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 18, 2018, 03:57:11 am
I'm still not sure whether this is a tossup or lean D.

Tester is definitely favored. No way is this the critical seat for the Democrats taking back the Senate.

Fortunately for you, Tester isnít as complacent and overconfident as most of his supporters.

I agree that this is one of the more predictable races, though. Rosendale could win (narrowly) if Republicans are having than better than expected night, but in a Democratic year he likely loses by 3-5 points or something like that. Tester winning by double digits was never going to happen (which should have been obvious to everyone).