Talk Elections

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/09/17/politics/cnn-polls-arizona-tennessee-senate/index.html

Bredi 50
Marsha B 45

This race is a pure tossup, perhaps with a slight tilt towards Bredesen.

538 rating: A- with a slight R bias

Ahhhhhhhhhhh

Yeet!

Put it right in my veins

Likely R -> Titanium D

In all seriousness, I hope people will drop the Bayh comparisons. If Bredesen were to tank to a double digit loss, I don't think we'd be seeing anything better for him than a 5-6 point deficit in the polls by now, since he's had plenty of time to lose popularity and be seen as a generic D. My gut still says Blackburn pulls out a narrow win, but no one should be calling this race a forgone conclusion right now.

I sincerely hope that Bredesen is able to keep this lead. I'm not very optimistic, but I'm feeling better about this race than I was earlier this summer.

This is really big not just because he has a decent lead, but because he is actually at 50. Bredesen may indeed actually be able to win this after all if that is about right, which would be a pretty amazing political feat.

YES! Come on Bredesen, hang in there!

YES! Not only is he ahead again, by 5 points no less, but he's at 50. Not saying Democrats should take this race for granted, but it's very encouraging to see that he's once more in the lead. Hopefully he leads in the only poll that matters, the actual vote count.

TN is more likely to go Dem than FL

no

Rotflmao

Scott is finished bruh

High Quality analysis here

/s

I think it's fair to call this Tilt D. "But IceSpear told me Bredesen would collapse over time like Bayh!"

()

Tossup, closer to Tilt D than Pure Tossup.

The race is Bredesen +8 with RV

The GOP's strategy in this state was to try and dent Bredesen's favorables. That appears to be backfiring-

Bredesen 55/26% +29
Blackburn 45/43% +2

Bredesen, Sinema, Manchin all doing better than Tester? Blasphemy.

Great news

Yeah, even if Bredesen ends up losing, he's probably not going to lose as badly as Bayh.

I wonder if the Kavanaugh controversy may help GOPers on the fence come home.

What happened to "This is Safe R, Evan Bayh says hi"?

Oh wow, he might actually win this. Still not betting on it, but who knows.

But atlas told me Bredesen was going to only decline and that he would be the next Evan Bayh?

At the end of the day, Bredesen is very liked, and his favorables are still sky high while Blackburn's are... not. And there is less than 50 days now. No way that Blackburn/GOP can kill his favorables now. I think people are underestimating how well liked he is. Partisanship certainly goes a long way, but in a Dem-favorable year with someone like Bredesen who has like +20, +30 favorables... I'd rather be him.

Back to tossup, I see. I'll ready my lean R rating for the next time that Blackburn is ahead.

New Poll: Tennessee Senator by SSRS on 2018-09-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=47120180915272)

Summary: D: 50%, R: 45%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/09/17/rel1_tn.pdf)

So, I won't go into this in as much detail as Arizona, but there are certain similarities:

1.) Health Care is the major priority of both LV (29%) and RV (27%) in Tennessee.

2,) Bredesen is leading (49-48 D) among voters 65+   and (55-42 D) voters 50-64.

3.) Trump's approval ratings in TN are better than AZ among both RV and LVs (46-46), but Blackburn voted to overturn the Affordable Care Act and Bredesen support the ACA, and his local roots as former Governor give him some street cred among many voters that might otherwise vote 'Pub for Senate (Even a cray-cray) against a weaker Democrat without the Gravitas of Bredesen.

4.) Similar to the CNN AZ poll earlier, voters 50k+ are split, although in the case of TN voters <50k are much more heavily Democratic.

It appears that we might have something interesting in both the Senate races in AZ and TN, in that both College Educated, "Upper Middle-Class" (Anglo) voters are continuing their swing towards a DEM candidate at a Federal Level (US PRES '16), combined with a dramatic swing among Anglo "WWC Voters".

I have always had a problem with the conventional media definition of "WWC voters" as well as much of Atlas on this point. Reality is that "WWC Voters" are frequently older retired voters long outside of the work-force, and simply using "race", "education", and "income" as a catchall, neglects the "age" factor, where inherently older voters tend to be "Whiter", "less college educated", and "lower income" (Living on Fixed incomes kinda does that.... ).

5.) Any way you look at again we're starting to see some real LV screens that show logical and reasonable models as to the *WHY* we might well be looking at a massive swing even in an off-year election, where many traditional base Democratic Voters tend to turn out in much lower numbers....

Just for reference, I took a look at the 2006 polls for this race last time there was a Dem wave year....similar matchups with similar approval ratings. As late as 10/1/06 there were two polls showing Dems +5 at 50/45; this is shaping up to be just like it. Since then, the state has gotten twice as red

Blackburn wins by 2% at the end