Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on September 18, 2018, 11:51:08 am



Title: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on September 18, 2018, 11:51:08 am
https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2570

Quote
Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz has a 54 - 45 percent likely voter lead over U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, his Democratic challenger, in the Texas Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This is the first survey of likely voters in this race by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll, and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters. Among Texas likely voters who choose a candidate, 93 percent say their mind is made up. That includes 94 percent of Cruz backers and 92 percent of O'Rourke backers.

Women are divided as 50 percent back Cruz and 48 percent back O'Rourke. Men back Cruz 57 - 42 percent. White voters back Cruz 66 - 32 percent. O'Rourke leads 97 - 3 percent among black voters and 54 - 45 percent among Hispanic voters.

Republicans back Cruz 94 - 6 percent, as Democrats go to O'Rourke 94 - 4 percent. Independent voters are divided with 51 percent for O'Rourke and 47 percent for Cruz.

Texas likely voters approve 53 - 44 percent of the job Cruz is doing and give him a 52 - 43 percent favorability rating.

O'Rourke gets a divided 43 - 42 percent favorability rating.


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on September 18, 2018, 11:53:52 am
I am disappointed because personally I would like Beto to win, but on the other hand LMAO at all those who were seriously thinking Beto can win.


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: yeah_93 on September 18, 2018, 11:54:55 am
Looks like TX isn't turning blue.


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: Gass3268 on September 18, 2018, 11:55:11 am
The BBQ attacks have worked!


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: VirginiŠ on September 18, 2018, 11:57:42 am
The BBQ attacks have worked!

The people have spoken: Hands off our BBQ!


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: Councilor Zaybay on September 18, 2018, 11:58:59 am
I wonder how they choose the likely voter screen, for if its based on 2014/2016, like Marquette, then this poll is garbage. I would hope its done by personal responses, and voting in 2016.


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: Bagel23 on September 18, 2018, 11:59:21 am
Worse than I thought I guess the undecideds were Republicans breaking for Cruz.


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: yeah_93 on September 18, 2018, 11:59:40 am
I wonder how they choose the likely voter screen, for if its based on 2014/2016, like Marquette, then this poll is garbage. I would hope its done by personal responses, and voting in 2016.

 ::)


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: YH Stands with Sanchez! on September 18, 2018, 12:00:49 pm
Who would've thought that undecided voters in Texas will lean R?


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: BBD on September 18, 2018, 12:01:09 pm
How the hell does Cruz have above water approval after all his bootlicking and general oxygen thievery. Good ole Texas.


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: KingSweden on September 18, 2018, 12:01:13 pm
This feels like a realistic result; albeit disappointing.  One would expect a poll like this if this is a narrow cruz win by 4/5 points to balance out the Cruz+1/2/3 polls.

Regardless, Atlas will now treat this result as the new standard and act as if the dynamics of the race have changed.  Until we get a Cruz+2 poll by literally any pollster at which point everyone will act like it's a horse-race again.

Good point.


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on September 18, 2018, 12:01:31 pm
This seems like an outlier, but youíd rather have outliers in the right direction rather than this.


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: Former President Weatherboy1102 on September 18, 2018, 12:03:51 pm
I'm going to put this in the "lean trash, closer to likely trash than tossup" column of polls. because it shows a result i don't like

I doubt that like, literally every poll from the past month has been heavily overestimating Beto.


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: Brittain33 on September 18, 2018, 12:03:56 pm
()


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: Councilor Zaybay on September 18, 2018, 12:04:06 pm
I wonder how they choose the likely voter screen, for if its based on 2014/2016, like Marquette, then this poll is garbage. I would hope its done by personal responses, and voting in 2016.

 ::)

Zaybay is the Trump of poll commentators.  "I can't say for sure if this poll is using the 2014 LV screen; but if it is, and I've heard from very fine people that that might be the case, then that's just a HUGE mistake.  GARBAGE POLLS!"

geez, I was just posing a question. Its self-identified, BTW, so the result is most likely correct.

Edit: Also, Im pretty sure asking the voters who voted in 2014 as a screen is a bad idea in a Democratic wave year.


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: Brittain33 on September 18, 2018, 12:04:43 pm
I will say that Republicans are behaving as if the race is closer than a 9-point lead for Cruz.


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: BBD on September 18, 2018, 12:05:08 pm
I will say that Republicans are behaving as if the race is closer than a 9-point lead for Cruz.

It's good to have a veil of caution in this environment.


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: Mondale on September 18, 2018, 12:05:08 pm
Beto is finished

Hes no match for masterdebator Cruz


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on September 18, 2018, 12:06:11 pm
The one point for hope for Beto/Dems in this poll is that it has virtually no undecideds. There are 3rd party candidates on the ballot, and those will in reality get at least some votes. Also, by election day the undecideds could possibly break somewhat differently than ones who were apparently pushed in this poll and chose Cruz.


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: yeah_93 on September 18, 2018, 12:06:19 pm
This feels like a realistic result; albeit disappointing.  One would expect a poll like this if this is a narrow cruz win by 4/5 points to balance out the Cruz+1/2/3 polls.

Regardless, Atlas will now treat this result as the new standard and act as if the dynamics of the race have changed.  Until we get a Cruz+2 poll by literally any pollster at which point everyone will act like it's a horse-race again.

I suppose it could be an outlier.

It is, however, the only poll we have taken after labor day (which we know a lot of users around here value more than August polls). There's also the fact that far more voters are familiar with O'Rourke now and he still hasn't gotten more than 45% in a poll. So, for all we know, these could be the new dynamics of the race.


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: Councilor Zaybay on September 18, 2018, 12:07:46 pm
This feels like a realistic result; albeit disappointing.  One would expect a poll like this if this is a narrow cruz win by 4/5 points to balance out the Cruz+1/2/3 polls.

Regardless, Atlas will now treat this result as the new standard and act as if the dynamics of the race have changed.  Until we get a Cruz+2 poll by literally any pollster at which point everyone will act like it's a horse-race again.

I suppose it could be an outlier.

It is, however, the only poll we have taken after labor day (which we know a lot of users around here value more than August polls). There's also the fact that far more voters are familiar with O'Rourke now and he still hasn't gotten more than 45% in a poll. So, for all we know, these could be the new dynamics of the race.

I agree with Yeah. This is one of, maybe the only, likely voter poll we have of the race, so this one has much more weight to it than the registered voter polls we have gotten.


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on September 18, 2018, 12:09:37 pm
I'm going to put this in the "lean trash, closer to likely trash than tossup" column of polls. because it shows a result i don't like

I doubt that like, literally every poll from the past month has been heavily overestimating Beto.

The difference between this and other polls is primarily that there are many fewer undecideds. Beto is at 45% in this, it is very hard (pretty much unprecedented in recent history except for 1 or 2 downballot races) for a Dem to get anything more than that in TX.


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: Former President Weatherboy1102 on September 18, 2018, 12:25:17 pm
I'm going to put this in the "lean trash, closer to likely trash than tossup" column of polls. because it shows a result i don't like

I doubt that like, literally every poll from the past month has been heavily overestimating Beto.

The difference between this and other polls is primarily that there are many fewer undecideds. Beto is at 45% in this, it is very hard (pretty much unprecedented in recent history except for 1 or 2 downballot races) for a Dem to get anything more than that in TX.
true, but I still have doubts about this poll.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on September 18, 2018, 12:28:41 pm
Well, congrats, Impartial Spectator. The small number of undecideds in this poll is weird, but Cruz is undeniably favored, and I highly doubt he loses at this point.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Pyro on September 18, 2018, 12:40:32 pm
It remains favorable to the incumbent, however Cruz' chances are overrated in this poll.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 18, 2018, 01:02:19 pm
I believe Cruz is ahead but by half that margin.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: The Mikado on September 18, 2018, 01:05:47 pm
I'm sticking with my prediction that Cruz wins by somewhere between 4 and 6. Cruz +9 makes me feel like their Likely Voter model is way too strict, especially since it indicates Trump's overall approval in TX is 49/49, which is way better than Trump's approval in any other Texas poll.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2018, 01:06:41 pm
I'm pretty sure this is an outlier poll, but we'll see what the others show ...


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on September 18, 2018, 01:16:48 pm
I'm sticking with my prediction that Cruz wins by somewhere between 4 and 6. Cruz +9 makes me feel like their Likely Voter model is way too strict, especially since it indicates Trump's overall approval in TX is 49/49, which is way better than Trump's approval in any other Texas poll.

Iím surprised heís 49/49 approved in TX.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on September 18, 2018, 01:32:31 pm
I'm sticking with my prediction that Cruz wins by somewhere between 4 and 6. Cruz +9 makes me feel like their Likely Voter model is way too strict, especially since it indicates Trump's overall approval in TX is 49/49, which is way better than Trump's approval in any other Texas poll.

Historically, having a too loose LV screen has been much more of a danger in TX polls than having too tight of one. At least in the past, TX has.

Even in Presidential years, turnout is low, and since the TX Dem base includes lots of non-whites, turnout tends to get hurt more than elsewhere in midterms.

Could turnout increase? Yes, and I expect that it will, particularly when compared to 2014. But it is still a question of how much of an increase is really plausible.

Even if turnout increases in TX, overall it will still surely be lower than elsewhere, and not representative of registered voters, much less representative of the population as a whole.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on September 18, 2018, 01:42:23 pm
My only hope right now is that Beto has the most money, and usually the candidate with the most money does win.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on September 18, 2018, 01:48:49 pm
Republicans are coming home, just as I predicted. TN was and is a far better opportunity. Once we have certainty that the government will not shut down before the election, I'm moving TX back to Safe R.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Communist Is Not An Insult on September 18, 2018, 01:52:36 pm
Beto was never going to win this. These deep southern states with extreme racial polarization are almost impossible to move. Beto getting 46% would be a great achievement for the party. TN is definitely more likely to flip, though the state is technically much redder, because it has more whites with at least a potential to vote Dem, while they are stuck at around 27-29% in TX. All these racially polarized southern states are like this, which is why Roy Moore only lost by 2% in AL.


Title: Re: TX-Sen - Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (Quinnipiac)
Post by: Interlocutor on September 18, 2018, 01:53:41 pm
This feels like a realistic result; albeit disappointing.  One would expect a poll like this if this is a narrow cruz win by 4/5 points to balance out the Cruz+1/2/3 polls.

Regardless, Atlas will now treat this result as the new standard and act as if the dynamics of the race have changed.  Until we get a Cruz+2 poll by literally any pollster at which point everyone will act like it's a horse-race again.


A subdued version of the Arizona Senate race?


I'm just surprised it took until mid-September to get to this point


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on September 18, 2018, 01:59:52 pm
Beto was never going to win this. These deep southern states with extreme racial polarization are almost impossible to move. Beto getting 46% would be a great achievement for the party. TN is definitely more likely to flip, though the state is technically much redder, because it has more whites with at least a potential to vote Dem, while they are stuck at around 27-29% in TX. All these racially polarized southern states are like this, which is why Roy Moore only lost by 2% in AL.

While clearly "Beto was never going to win this," TX is not in the same category as MS/AL.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: UWS on September 18, 2018, 02:18:59 pm
I think O'Rourke still has a chance to win because the Cruz-related scandal in which his campaign has sent has sent fundraising letters with an envelope made up to resemble a legal summons has arrived just in time to possibly undermine Cruz.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ted-cruz-summons-mailings/


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Cory Booker on September 18, 2018, 03:06:33 pm
Cruz chances has increased


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 18, 2018, 03:08:51 pm
Yeah, Cruz has this.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Confused Democrat on September 18, 2018, 03:26:29 pm
>One favorable poll for Cruz

"OMG CRUZ 100% HAS THIS. LOL DEMS BTFO. A DEM CAN NEVER WIN TX. TOLD YOU SO!"

Sometimes I hate this site.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 18, 2018, 03:33:08 pm
>One favorable poll for Cruz

"OMG CRUZ 100% HAS THIS. LOL DEMS BTFO. A DEM CAN NEVER WIN TX. TOLD YOU SO!"

Sometimes I hate this site.

The margins range from Cruz+3 to Cruz+9. This is about the time where we should start to see some polls with Beto ahead (or at least tied) if he was going to win.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on September 18, 2018, 03:59:40 pm
I think O'Rourke still has a chance to win because the Cruz-related scandal in which his campaign has sent has sent fundraising letters with an envelope made up to resemble a legal summons has arrived just in time to possibly undermine Cruz.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ted-cruz-summons-mailings/

lolno

Not a single voter will change their vote based on that.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: UWS on September 18, 2018, 04:42:22 pm
I think O'Rourke still has a chance to win because the Cruz-related scandal in which his campaign has sent has sent fundraising letters with an envelope made up to resemble a legal summons has arrived just in time to possibly undermine Cruz.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ted-cruz-summons-mailings/

lolno

Not a single voter will change their vote based on that.

Well it is similar to the Watergate in the sense that this move by Cruzís campaign was also for electoral purposes and it broke the rules.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Justice Blair on September 18, 2018, 04:45:40 pm
I think O'Rourke still has a chance to win because the Cruz-related scandal in which his campaign has sent has sent fundraising letters with an envelope made up to resemble a legal summons has arrived just in time to possibly undermine Cruz.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ted-cruz-summons-mailings/

lolno

Not a single voter will change their vote based on that.

Well it is similar to the Watergate in the sense that this move by Cruzís campaign was also for electoral purposes and it broke the rules.

Itís not illegal- itís something a lot of campaigns do to con money out of elderly voters


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: UWS on September 18, 2018, 05:00:37 pm
I think O'Rourke still has a chance to win because the Cruz-related scandal in which his campaign has sent has sent fundraising letters with an envelope made up to resemble a legal summons has arrived just in time to possibly undermine Cruz.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ted-cruz-summons-mailings/

lolno

Not a single voter will change their vote based on that.

Well it is similar to the Watergate in the sense that this move by Cruzís campaign was also for electoral purposes and it broke the rules.

Itís not illegal- itís something a lot of campaigns do to con money out of elderly voters

Out of elderly voters, including those, like this 88-year old grandmother who suffered from some dementia while it could have actually been a request to send money to some kind of health care organization needing money to treat this instead of just fake summonses to deceive voters for electoral campaign money?

Lose Cruz.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: RoboWop on September 18, 2018, 05:05:37 pm
Anyone who previously said O'Rourke was likely to win or who is now saying he has no chance to win should switch to decaf.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Justice Blair on September 18, 2018, 05:11:54 pm
I think O'Rourke still has a chance to win because the Cruz-related scandal in which his campaign has sent has sent fundraising letters with an envelope made up to resemble a legal summons has arrived just in time to possibly undermine Cruz.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ted-cruz-summons-mailings/

lolno

Not a single voter will change their vote based on that.

Well it is similar to the Watergate in the sense that this move by Cruzís campaign was also for electoral purposes and it broke the rules.

Itís not illegal- itís something a lot of campaigns do to con money out of elderly voters

Out of elderly voters, including those, like this 88-year old grandmother who suffered from some dementia while it could have actually been a request to send money to some kind of health care organization needing money to treat this instead of just fake summonses to deceive voters for electoral campaign money?

Lose Cruz.

Iím not disagreeing that itís sh**tty- Iím just saying itís somethinh that candidates have been caught doing before, and itís something that wonít shift this race. Comparing it to Watergate is silly.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on September 18, 2018, 05:16:15 pm
Anyone who previously said O'Rourke was likely to win or who is now saying he has no chance to win should switch to decaf.

What if one is now saying O'Rourke has no chance to win but was also previously saying that he had no chance to win?


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on September 18, 2018, 05:29:43 pm
Beto was never going to win this. These deep southern states with extreme racial polarization are almost impossible to move. Beto getting 46% would be a great achievement for the party. TN is definitely more likely to flip, though the state is technically much redder, because it has more whites with at least a potential to vote Dem, while they are stuck at around 27-29% in TX. All these racially polarized southern states are like this, which is why Roy Moore only lost by 2% in AL.

While clearly "Beto was never going to win this," TX is not in the same category as MS/AL.


Actually TX is a bigger version of AL/MS


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Everyone Except Warren & Harris Drop Out on September 18, 2018, 05:45:35 pm
Beto's campaign has built a network that TX Dems can use in the future. That's the most important thing.

I know precinct captains from the GA-06 special election already in place to mobilize for Stacey Abrams. In races like this, just rebuilding party infrastructure can be as important as a win.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Old School Republican on September 18, 2018, 06:12:09 pm
Beto's campaign has built a network that TX Dems can use in the future. That's the most important thing.

I know precinct captains from the GA-06 special election already in place to mobilize for Stacey Abrams. In races like this, just rebuilding party infrastructure can be as important as a win.

Texas is far more Republican compared to Georgia though


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on September 18, 2018, 06:51:41 pm
I'm not particularly surprised. At best for O'Rourke, this race is lean R.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: SCNCmod on September 18, 2018, 06:56:23 pm
Although I think Cruz is obvious ahead of Beto... I think it is much closer than this poll.

A few points to consider-

If you look on RealClearPolitics poll history- All 3 Quinnipiac polls give Cruz a larger lead than the other polls (taken around a similar time period)... so not sure if their list/ methods are slightly skewed towards Cruz voters?

Beto is closer in RV polls than he is in LV polls (if Beto has really been able to energize voters in Texas ... this election may be more closely represented by a RV poll).

Similar to above- if Beto has really energized a large number of young and new voters (by going to every part of the state, campaigning in overdrive, etc... these polls are much more likely to under sample younger & new voters and undersample cell phone only voters).

I think a 4 point race recent polls are more likely representative of the current state of the race.  And that Beto still has a very outside chance to eek out a win if there are turnout rates among young, new, and low propensity voters that are rates that only happen in the once-every-20-years type of time frame.

....not sure if this is expected or not- but I was a little surprised to see Beto only leading 54-45 among Hispanic voters (since he has supposedly had the most increase in energized voters along the border areas)?  Also- in the same poll Hispanics in the Governors race  Abbott:49  Valdez:45.

...Also- in the poll Cruz has approval and favorability/approval rating at least 4-5 point better than Coryn, Trump and Beto?  (seems like they may have fallen into a batch of Cruz voters... or Cruz voters were eager to answer the survey after "Texas Senate is close" news stories the past  week or two)?

Job approval ratings:
Cruz: 53-44 (favorability is 52-43)
Coryn: 49-36
Trump: 49-49

Beto (favorability is 43-42)


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: IceSpear on September 18, 2018, 07:15:35 pm
Yikes. Guess the LV screen ended up hitting Dems like a ton of bricks here. Considering it's Texas, I guess that's not surprising.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: UWS on September 18, 2018, 07:22:41 pm
Beto's campaign has built a network that TX Dems can use in the future. That's the most important thing.

I know precinct captains from the GA-06 special election already in place to mobilize for Stacey Abrams. In races like this, just rebuilding party infrastructure can be as important as a win.

Texas is far more Republican compared to Georgia though

While Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones won last year, is even far more Republican than Texas is.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on September 18, 2018, 07:44:37 pm
Beto's campaign has built a network that TX Dems can use in the future. That's the most important thing.

I know precinct captains from the GA-06 special election already in place to mobilize for Stacey Abrams. In races like this, just rebuilding party infrastructure can be as important as a win.

Texas is far more Republican compared to Georgia though

While Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones won last year, is even far more Republican than Texas is.


As a Texan I even have to admit that if Roy Moore was a Texan he'd be elected to the Senate even with the pedophilia accusations.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: North Fulton Swing on September 18, 2018, 07:46:37 pm
Beto's campaign has built a network that TX Dems can use in the future. That's the most important thing.

I know precinct captains from the GA-06 special election already in place to mobilize for Stacey Abrams. In races like this, just rebuilding party infrastructure can be as important as a win.

Texas is far more Republican compared to Georgia though

While Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones won last year, is even far more Republican than Texas is.


As a Texan I even have to admit that if Roy Moore was a Texan he'd be elected to the Senate even with the pedophilia accusations.

Wow!   That is harsh.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on September 18, 2018, 07:46:47 pm
Beto's campaign has built a network that TX Dems can use in the future. That's the most important thing.

I know precinct captains from the GA-06 special election already in place to mobilize for Stacey Abrams. In races like this, just rebuilding party infrastructure can be as important as a win.

Texas is far more Republican compared to Georgia though

While Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones won last year, is even far more Republican than Texas is.


As a Texan I even have to admit that if Roy Moore was a Texan he'd be elected to the Senate even with the pedophilia accusations.

I highly, highly doubt that. If Roy Moore couldn't win a Trump +28 state that is notoriously inelastic, he would never win a Trump +9 state.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: yeah_93 on September 18, 2018, 07:51:00 pm
Beto's campaign has built a network that TX Dems can use in the future. That's the most important thing.

I know precinct captains from the GA-06 special election already in place to mobilize for Stacey Abrams. In races like this, just rebuilding party infrastructure can be as important as a win.

Texas is far more Republican compared to Georgia though

While Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones won last year, is even far more Republican than Texas is.


As a Texan I even have to admit that if Roy Moore was a Texan he'd be elected to the Senate even with the pedophilia accusations.

I highly, highly doubt that. If Roy Moore couldn't win a Trump +28 state that is notoriously inelastic, he would never win a Trump +9 state.

TX also qualifies as "notoriously inelastic".

I'd concede, however, that Moore probably would have lost there too.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Old School Republican on September 18, 2018, 08:05:12 pm
Beto's campaign has built a network that TX Dems can use in the future. That's the most important thing.

I know precinct captains from the GA-06 special election already in place to mobilize for Stacey Abrams. In races like this, just rebuilding party infrastructure can be as important as a win.

Texas is far more Republican compared to Georgia though

While Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones won last year, is even far more Republican than Texas is.


If Ted Cruz was gop nominee in AL instead of Moore he would have won AL by at least 15-20 points


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: The Mikado on September 18, 2018, 08:15:30 pm
Beto was never going to win this. These deep southern states with extreme racial polarization are almost impossible to move. Beto getting 46% would be a great achievement for the party. TN is definitely more likely to flip, though the state is technically much redder, because it has more whites with at least a potential to vote Dem, while they are stuck at around 27-29% in TX. All these racially polarized southern states are like this, which is why Roy Moore only lost by 2% in AL.

While clearly "Beto was never going to win this," TX is not in the same category as MS/AL.


Actually TX is a bigger version of AL/MS

Do you live in Longview or Beaumont or something? If so, I could see why you feel that way, but it is a stunningly ignorant statement otherwise.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on September 18, 2018, 08:46:21 pm
Beto was never going to win this. These deep southern states with extreme racial polarization are almost impossible to move. Beto getting 46% would be a great achievement for the party. TN is definitely more likely to flip, though the state is technically much redder, because it has more whites with at least a potential to vote Dem, while they are stuck at around 27-29% in TX. All these racially polarized southern states are like this, which is why Roy Moore only lost by 2% in AL.

While clearly "Beto was never going to win this," TX is not in the same category as MS/AL.


Actually TX is a bigger version of AL/MS

Do you live in Longview or Beaumont or something? If so, I could see why you feel that way, but it is a stunningly ignorant statement otherwise.

Houston area is where I'm at. However I went to college in East Texas, where it feels more like Alabama. 

As for my previous statement, we have a Attorney General candidate with criminal corruption charges and he's likely to win. If he were in any other state he'd be screwed. Which kind of brings to the idea that it will take a lot for some Republican to fall here.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on September 18, 2018, 09:42:02 pm
I highly, highly doubt there's only 1% undecided in September.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: NOVA Green on September 19, 2018, 12:35:31 am
Well.... whew.

We now have a post Labor Day poll of LV's from Texas.... Awesome!!!

Still, we have items such as Texas being an extremely difficult state to poll in GE Years, let alone Non-Presidential Election Years....

Additionally we have "the Q" which honestly has a much more recent and less accurate polling history in Texas for a wide variety of reasons, despite relatively high quality polling in some other States of the Union.

Time to take a "chill pill", "hit the vape", and not get excessively celebratory nor depressed, depending upon one's partisan orientation and backgrounds....

This is a *reality check*, especially considering the history of flawed Texas polling when it comes to "adults of Texas",  "RVs of Texas", and "LVs of Texas"....

Still plenty of time on the clock here, and honestly although I tend to give Cruz a narrow nod in '18, still not convinced that this particular poll is actually representative of what will happen in November '18....

Let's wait for more post Labor Day polls from organizations with a better history of polling in Texas, which is an extremely complex mass of Metro Areas, Demographics, etc, before we all get on our "jump to conclusion mats"...

We are only at the start of the Fourth Quarter folks, in an extremely volatile Ball Game...

()


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: SCNCmod on September 19, 2018, 12:45:06 am
Does it seem likely that Valdez (1st Latina major party nominee for Governor in Texas) isn't ahead of Abbott among Hispanic voters (per the same poll.. which has Abbott leading among Hispanic voters 49-45)?


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Marianne Williamson on September 19, 2018, 01:37:26 am
Does it seem likely that Valdez (1st Latina major party nominee for Governor in Texas) isn't ahead of Abbott among Hispanic voters (per the same poll.. which has Abbott leading among Hispanic voters 49-45)?
Valdez worked with ICE to deport illegal immigrants in her jails while claiming to be for them and she has been called out by this among young hispanics, might be one such reason.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Cory Booker on September 19, 2018, 01:47:13 am
Cruz is a Latino himself and one of the Castro bros along with Andrew White could of made this race competitive, but they felt running against popular Abbott was too much. Tilt GOP.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on September 19, 2018, 04:18:33 am
Does it seem likely that Valdez (1st Latina major party nominee for Governor in Texas) isn't ahead of Abbott among Hispanic voters (per the same poll.. which has Abbott leading among Hispanic voters 49-45)?

I think her being LGBT has hurt her a little bit.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on September 19, 2018, 04:25:06 am
Cruz is a Latino himself and one of the Castro bros along with Andrew White could of made this race competitive, but they felt running against popular Abbott was too much. Tilt GOP.


No one in my honest opinion could beat Abbott, at one point his approval rating was 89%


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 19, 2018, 04:50:05 am
Does it seem likely that Valdez (1st Latina major party nominee for Governor in Texas) isn't ahead of Abbott among Hispanic voters (per the same poll.. which has Abbott leading among Hispanic voters 49-45)?
Valdez worked with ICE to deport illegal immigrants in her jails while claiming to be for them and she has been called out by this among young hispanics, might be one such reason.

That's stupid. A law enforcement officer can't pick and choose which laws to enforce and which not.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Justice Blair on September 19, 2018, 04:56:13 am
Cruz is a Latino himself and one of the Castro bros along with Andrew White could of made this race competitive, but they felt running against popular Abbott was too much. Tilt GOP.

They really couldn't- it's extremely lazy to think that the Castro brothers would automatically inflate the Hispanic vote for Democrats


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Marianne Williamson on September 19, 2018, 05:41:48 am
Does it seem likely that Valdez (1st Latina major party nominee for Governor in Texas) isn't ahead of Abbott among Hispanic voters (per the same poll.. which has Abbott leading among Hispanic voters 49-45)?
Valdez worked with ICE to deport illegal immigrants in her jails while claiming to be for them and she has been called out by this among young hispanics, might be one such reason.
Not true, https://www.texasobserver.org/lupe-valdezs-record-as-sheriff-spells-trouble-with-young-latinos/
That's stupid. A law enforcement officer can't pick and choose which laws to enforce and which not.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on September 19, 2018, 11:02:17 am
Does it seem likely that Valdez (1st Latina major party nominee for Governor in Texas) isn't ahead of Abbott among Hispanic voters (per the same poll.. which has Abbott leading among Hispanic voters 49-45)?

I think her being LGBT has hurt her a little bit.

The Hispanic crosstab is almost certainly junky - I doubt also that Cruz is doing as well as he is in this poll with Hispanics. Probably this relates to the fact that Quinnipiac is not particularly experienced with polling TX.

As for her being LGBT, most voters barely know who she is, if they have even heard of her at all. So I wouldn't think it hurts her that much. She did also easily win all the Hispanic areas in the primary by substantial margins.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Mondale on October 08, 2018, 01:19:04 am
Quote
TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45


Amasing....Cruz got a Kavanugh energy bump before Kavanugh


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Cory Booker on October 08, 2018, 02:38:55 am
Beto is probably not gonna win


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: History505 on October 08, 2018, 11:20:38 am
Quote
TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45


Amasing....Cruz got a Kavanugh energy bump before Kavanugh
This poll is old, but Cruz does have the edge.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on October 09, 2018, 08:24:23 pm
Beto is probably not gonna win

You can remove "probably" from that sentence.


Title: Re: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
Post by: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on October 11, 2018, 04:15:06 am
Quote
I highly, highly doubt that. If Roy Moore couldn't win a Trump +28 state that is notoriously inelastic, he would never win a Trump +9 state.

Are you from Texas? Serious question. Look at Abbott's numbers. The way things work in Texas is that everything is connected. Governor, Senate, etc are all drawing from the same pool. Texas is very, very, very good at GOTV as well as fighting tooth and nail.

I'm rolling through the Alabama GOP turnout figures. Moore wins with another percent turnout in his favor. Alabama also had their issues with the primary where Moore won, and the whole show around that.

In Texas, how it would have worked is that there wouldn't have been another candidate against Moore and he would have ran unopposed within the GOP. Once they decided that Moore was (and remains) a good fit for the state they would have run on that.

Yes, Texas has different challenges from Alabama, but it has competent state organization and very, very solid GOP organization. MS, and particularly AL just don't compare. They don't have the R history of Texas, nor do they have two former presidents and their organizations all in-state. You also have a large number of Dems flipped R, which AL and MS and GA seem to prefer.