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Election Archive => 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on September 18, 2018, 12:26:40 PM



Title: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on September 18, 2018, 12:26:40 PM
I am watching it from their livestream, seems like it is not uploaded yet on their website (now on twitter):





Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 18, 2018, 12:27:38 PM
Walker's only hope is probably that all the polls are underestimating Republican strength again like in 2014/2016.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Skye on September 18, 2018, 12:28:17 PM
Walker looking... not good lol.

Walker's only hope is probably that all the polls are underestimating Republican strength again like in 2014/2016.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Gass3268 on September 18, 2018, 12:28:59 PM
Walker's only hope is probably that all the polls are underestimating Republican strength again like in 2014/2016.

The Marquette poll was fine in 2014.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on September 18, 2018, 12:30:04 PM
Marquette had Clinton+6 in the 2nd November 2016. Let's all remember. Second of all, this may be good news for the Dems, but the legislature won't flip if all the gains are concentrated in Milwaukee and Dane counties. This means that if Walker loses and wins a revenge 2022 matchup, we'll be back to a GOP trifecta in no time. Stay watchful, Wisconsin Dems. Don't get complacent and keep fighting.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 18, 2018, 12:33:25 PM
Walker's only hope is probably that all the polls are underestimating Republican strength again like in 2014/2016.

The Marquette poll was fine in 2014.

Yeah, they’re usually the best in WI, so this really isn’t a good sign for Walker, to say the least. Keeping it at Tossup for now, but that’s being generous to him.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Xing on September 18, 2018, 12:34:22 PM
While it's possible that the polls are underestimating Walker, and he could still recover, I'm going to quote an article from 538 in 2014 about a different race (CO-SEN 2014), while changing a few of the words:

"Wisconsin polling is probably right. Walker is losing."

Change "Colorado" to "Wisconsin", "Udall" to "Walker", and a few other words, and that article works pretty well for this race.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Skye on September 18, 2018, 12:35:28 PM
Walker's only hope is probably that all the polls are underestimating Republican strength again like in 2014/2016.

The Marquette poll was fine in 2014.

Yeah, they’re usually the best in WI, so this really isn’t a good sign for Walker, to say the least. Keeping it at Tossup for now, but that’s being generous to him.

I think everyone is being generous to Walker due to his past victories, but that luck seems to be shrinking by the day in the middle of the blue wave.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Gass3268 on September 18, 2018, 12:36:36 PM
Walker is getting murdered by the independents, losing 32-52.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 18, 2018, 12:36:48 PM
This just shows how quickly things can change in a wave environment. That's why I think some people should stop doing post mortems for any Democrat who is a few points behind.
In a couple of weeks their situation might be very different.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Virginiá on September 18, 2018, 12:51:27 PM
Marquette had Clinton+6 in the 2nd November 2016. Let's all remember. Second of all, this may be good news for the Dems, but the legislature won't flip if all the gains are concentrated in Milwaukee and Dane counties. This means that if Walker loses and wins a revenge 2022 matchup, we'll be back to a GOP trifecta in no time. Stay watchful, Wisconsin Dems. Don't get complacent and keep fighting.

Actually, Democrats have a reasonable shot at flipping the state Senate this year, especially considering that they've won 2 state Senate seats already that voted heavily for Trump.

Also, are you forgetting that a Governor Evers would prevent Republicans from drawing fresh gerrymanders in 2021 even if they still controlled the legislature? If Evers wins this time, Wisconsin's legislature will probably be up for grabs for most/all of the 2020s.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Politician on September 18, 2018, 12:59:47 PM
Walker's only hope is probably that all the polls are underestimating Republican strength again like in 2014/2016.
Basically this. He's unpopular, and Evers is a very good candidate.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Scottholes 2.0 on September 18, 2018, 02:27:05 PM
Frankly, I'm shocked MU has him leading. Let's hope Evers continues to lead like this for the next 49 days until the election!

Tilt-D until another poll shows them either tied or Walker leading.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on September 18, 2018, 02:36:30 PM
I thought he would retire.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 18, 2018, 03:05:32 PM
Walker will lose


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 18, 2018, 03:13:46 PM
Yeah, lol @ anyone who still thinks Walker is favored. BUT MUH 3 ELECTIONS IN 4 YEARS!!


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Badger on September 18, 2018, 03:25:16 PM
Walker's only hope is probably that all the polls are underestimating Republican strength again like in 2014/2016.

The Marquette poll was fine in 2014.

Yeah, they’re usually the best in WI, so this really isn’t a good sign for Walker, to say the least. Keeping it at Tossup for now, but that’s being generous to him.

I think everyone is being generous to Walker due to his past victories, but that luck seems to be shrinking by the day in the middle of the blue wave.

I think people keep forgetting that Walker was elected narrowly twice in huge Republican wave years oh, and once in a recall election which by its very nature he was favored. Anyone failing to take that into account and the fact that it's 2018, is indeed going to overestimate Walker's chances here.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Beet on September 18, 2018, 03:27:00 PM
Wow, I actually agree with Badger here. I think this is Walker's most potentially vulnerable election, but never underestimate Walker in Wisconsin.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Scottholes 2.0 on September 18, 2018, 03:31:16 PM
Marquette (and many other polls) indicated that Feingold was leading. Then, Election Day approached and we got the opposite result. So, no, I am not by any means underestimating Walker, even in the midst of a blue wave. He is the Ted Cruz of Wisconsin.

Heck, his strict voter ID law might send many Democrats back home like it did in 2016.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 18, 2018, 03:31:34 PM
Walker hasn't lead in a single poll except for a Marquette University poll, no one is underestimating him, but Evers is favored


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Scottholes 2.0 on September 18, 2018, 03:42:02 PM
I'm not kidding when I say this (and I wish I was), but I work at a company in Fitchburg (a Madison suburb) with a lot of liberals. I can name 3 or 4 people (who planned on voting for Hillary) who were sent back home due to the strict voter ID law. This is part of the reason why Hillary lost the electoral vote in WI in 2016 and why Feingold lost. The fact of the matter is that there are more registered Democrats in WI, and Walker knows this.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on September 18, 2018, 03:52:57 PM
He thinks he’s an fdr running for a fourth term lmao


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 18, 2018, 04:00:07 PM
He lost in the GOP primary for president, he isn't unbeatable and even Walker can lose😁


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: uti2 on September 18, 2018, 04:20:08 PM
He lost in the GOP primary for president, he isn't unbeatable and even Walker can lose😁

TBF, Walker would've been unbeatable in the WI GOP primary.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: IceSpear on September 18, 2018, 06:21:23 PM
I'm surprised this thread doesn't have like 5 pages by now.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Mr. Illini on September 18, 2018, 06:35:36 PM
Marquette had Clinton+6 in the 2nd November 2016. Let's all remember. Second of all, this may be good news for the Dems, but the legislature won't flip if all the gains are concentrated in Milwaukee and Dane counties. This means that if Walker loses and wins a revenge 2022 matchup, we'll be back to a GOP trifecta in no time. Stay watchful, Wisconsin Dems. Don't get complacent and keep fighting.

Lol why would the gains be centered around Madison and Milwaukee? The most elastic region of Wisconsin is upstate. I expect smaller movements in the southern quadrant of the state and, if the polling is correct, a big movement toward Evers upstate compared to 2014.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on September 18, 2018, 06:45:17 PM
I sure hope that he is indeed a dead man Walkering.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Dr. Arch on September 18, 2018, 06:47:39 PM
Marquette had Clinton+6 in the 2nd November 2016. Let's all remember. Second of all, this may be good news for the Dems, but the legislature won't flip if all the gains are concentrated in Milwaukee and Dane counties. This means that if Walker loses and wins a revenge 2022 matchup, we'll be back to a GOP trifecta in no time. Stay watchful, Wisconsin Dems. Don't get complacent and keep fighting.

Lol why would the gains be centered around Madison and Milwaukee? The most elastic region of Wisconsin is upstate. I expect smaller movements in the southern quadrant of the state and, if the polling is correct, a big movement toward Evers upstate compared to 2014.

Evers also has lasting connections with Central and Northeastern Wisconsin, both places in which he lived and made impact on the education system before his tenure as Super Nintendo.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 18, 2018, 06:49:09 PM
Lean D.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Roblox on September 18, 2018, 06:52:27 PM
I'm surprised this thread doesn't have like 5 pages by now.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: ON Progressive on September 18, 2018, 07:09:29 PM
Marquette had Clinton+6 in the 2nd November 2016. Let's all remember. Second of all, this may be good news for the Dems, but the legislature won't flip if all the gains are concentrated in Milwaukee and Dane counties. This means that if Walker loses and wins a revenge 2022 matchup, we'll be back to a GOP trifecta in no time. Stay watchful, Wisconsin Dems. Don't get complacent and keep fighting.

Lol why would the gains be centered around Madison and Milwaukee? The most elastic region of Wisconsin is upstate. I expect smaller movements in the southern quadrant of the state and, if the polling is correct, a big movement toward Evers upstate compared to 2014.

Don't take any hemorrhofoid posts seriously.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Scottholes 2.0 on September 18, 2018, 08:52:37 PM
Will pundits ever move this race to Lean D?


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: ON Progressive on September 18, 2018, 08:56:23 PM
Will pundits ever move this race to Lean D?

Literally every pundit still has CO-06 and MN-03 as tossups even though Sinea has them down by huge margins with the challengers above 50 and awful Trump approvals and Dem landslides in the GCB. So the answer is no.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Xing on September 18, 2018, 09:10:45 PM
Will pundits ever move this race to Lean D?

Considering that most didn't even move it to Toss-Up until very recently, I think the answer is very clearly no.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on September 18, 2018, 10:49:53 PM
I think people have underestimated the possibility that Walker could end up matching Tom Barret’s performance of around 46% despite being the incumbent governor, if not even worse. 46% sure does seem like his average in the polls so far.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: NOVA Green on September 18, 2018, 11:28:37 PM
Marquette is traditionally the "Gold Standard" of WI polling, and we're starting to see one horse break out of the stall with all the momentum on their side, while the other is a lagging former Kentucky Derby winner as "has been" of days of yonder....

I suspect these numbers might well break even stronger in favor of Evers in the next Marquette poll of WI, considering the "Big Mo" is on the Dems side in WI after all of the Election results we have seen from the State.

Old face... hack WI 'Pub GOV who as backed just about every reactionary agenda wearing the "Moderate Face of a Moderate 'Pub GOV", slinking behind his desk cube in the Governor's Mansion, while neglecting to do anything real to address fundamental core issues of concerns to his constituents....

There is a new day blooming in Wisconsin, and Walker is a "has been" virtual clone of Paul Ryan, and never done much at all to stand up for the people of his State against the reactionary forces that existed within the Republican Party at a National Level even prior to Trump, while at the same time slashing taxes on the wealthy, sticking it to the Unions, gutting entitlement programs, etc....

It's a wonder that WOW is so supportive of him in November '18....

()


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on September 18, 2018, 11:47:26 PM
Marquette is traditionally the "Gold Standard" of WI polling, and we're starting to see one horse break out of the stall with all the momentum on their side, while the other is a lagging former Kentucky Derby winner as "has been" of days of yonder....

I suspect these numbers might well break even stronger in favor of Evers in the next Marquette poll of WI, considering the "Big Mo" is on the Dems side in WI after all of the Election results we have seen from the State.

Old face... hack WI 'Pub GOV who as backed just about every reactionary agenda wearing the "Moderate Face of a Moderate 'Pub GOV", slinking behind his desk cube in the Governor's Mansion, while neglecting to do anything real to address fundamental core issues of concerns to his constituents....

There is a new day blooming in Wisconsin, and Walker is a "has been" virtual clone of Paul Ryan, and never done much at all to stand up for the people of his State against the reactionary forces that existed within the Republican Party at a National Level even prior to Trump, while at the same time slashing taxes on the wealthy, sticking it to the Unions, gutting entitlement programs, etc....

It's a wonder that WOW is so supportive of him in November '18....

()
It's only 5 points and Evers is below 50; Calm down.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on September 19, 2018, 12:05:59 AM
Remember that time people were called hacks for saying this was a Leans D race back in July/August? I do!
Honestly, they still would be. This is Toss-up at best. Marquette has been hugely wrong before (President Hillary Clinton says hi). Walker is a tough campaigner and is seen as a generational hero in the Milwaukee suburbs (the apparent kind of places Dems focus on to the detriment of the rurals). 


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Scottholes 2.0 on September 19, 2018, 12:15:40 AM
Remember that time people were called hacks for saying this was a Leans D race back in July/August? I do!
Honestly, they still would be. This is Toss-up at best. Marquette has been hugely wrong before (President Hillary Clinton says hi). Walker is a tough campaigner and is seen as a generational hero in the Milwaukee suburbs (the apparent kind of places Dems focus on to the detriment of the rurals). 

Now that college-educated whites are shifting away from the Republican Party, I can see the WOW counties voting for Walker by lesser margins than they did in 2010, 2012, and 2014 for Walker.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on September 19, 2018, 12:16:45 AM
Sure "College-educated whites" are flocking to the Dems, but for every new "1%er Mollie Sue" in Ozaukee County gained, there are 3 Bruce's losing their jobs due to Dem neglect in the Northwoods and flocking to the GOP.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: junior chįmp on September 19, 2018, 12:18:12 AM
Remember that time people were called hacks for saying this was a Leans D race back in July/August? I do!

I was saying Walker was finished like a year and a half ago. Lmao


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on September 19, 2018, 12:20:32 AM
Remember that time people were called hacks for saying this was a Leans D race back in July/August? I do!

I was saying Walker was finished like a year and a half ago. Lmao
I'm sure Walker would be thanking you for doing your part to encourage complacency among Wisconsin Dems.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: redjohn on September 19, 2018, 07:49:15 AM
Remember that time people were called hacks for saying this was a Leans D race back in July/August? I do!

I was saying Walker was finished like a year and a half ago. Lmao
I'm sure Walker would be thanking you for doing your part to encourage complacency among Wisconsin Dems.

Complacency is definitely not an issue among Wisconsin Dems; nobody thinks Evers winning is a sure thing. On this forum, maybe, but Wisconsin Dems know this race is a tossup.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Wiz in Wis on September 19, 2018, 09:21:12 AM
Sure "College-educated whites" are flocking to the Dems, but for every new "1%er Mollie Sue" in Ozaukee County gained, there are 3 Bruce's losing their jobs due to Dem neglect in the Northwoods and flocking to the GOP.

I live in Sauk County, and I have to say, the idea that people "flocked" to the GOP dramatically overstates the case. People were willing to try Trump over Clinton, but they didn't like her. Tony Evers is not Hillary Clinton.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: junior chįmp on September 19, 2018, 12:59:47 PM
Remember that time people were called hacks for saying this was a Leans D race back in July/August? I do!

I was saying Walker was finished like a year and a half ago. Lmao
I'm sure Walker would be thanking you for doing your part to encourage complacency among Wisconsin Dems.

Bruh....whyd you change your name? Whatever happened to "Third term Walker" and "Titanium Red Wisconsin"


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Scottholes 2.0 on September 19, 2018, 01:52:34 PM
Remember that time people were called hacks for saying this was a Leans D race back in July/August? I do!

I was saying Walker was finished like a year and a half ago. Lmao
I'm sure Walker would be thanking you for doing your part to encourage complacency among Wisconsin Dems.

Bruh....whyd you change your name? Whatever happened to "Third term Walker" and "Titanium Red Wisconsin"

He'll probably change his name to "Walker 2022" if he loses.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on September 19, 2018, 05:37:38 PM
Hofoid- You do realize Tony Evers is doing better with non college whites then Hillary right?


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Mr. Illini on September 20, 2018, 07:35:34 AM
I'm a believer! Tilt D


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Scottholes 2.0 on September 22, 2018, 05:56:58 PM
() (https://flic.kr/p/2bfWXQU) (https://flic.kr/p/2bfWXQU)  (https://www.flickr.com/photos/127156156@N04/)

What do you guys think of Walker's recent tweet about this particular Marquette poll?


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 22, 2018, 06:02:03 PM
Yes, Hillary with her ethics was on the ticket running with Feingold. Feinhold would have no trouble winning this year


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 22, 2018, 09:55:08 PM
Yes, Hillary with her ethics was on the ticket running with Reinhold. Reinhold would have no trouble winning this year

I didn't know Reinhold Niebuhr had challenged Johnson in 2016. :o


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: junior chįmp on September 22, 2018, 09:56:24 PM
() (https://flic.kr/p/2bfWXQU) (https://flic.kr/p/2bfWXQU)  (https://www.flickr.com/photos/127156156@N04/)

What do you guys think of Walker's recent tweet about this particular Marquette poll?

He's in the denial stage


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 22, 2018, 10:54:36 PM
They know they can't win without WI the WC.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Averroës Nix on September 25, 2018, 08:50:06 AM
They know they can't win without WI the WC.

...whizzing the water closet?


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 25, 2018, 08:56:36 AM
Iowa


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Chief Justice Keef on September 25, 2018, 02:54:18 PM
Marquette had Clinton+6 in the 2nd November 2016. Let's all remember. Second of all, this may be good news for the Dems, but the legislature won't flip if all the gains are concentrated in Milwaukee and Dane counties. This means that if Walker loses and wins a revenge 2022 matchup, we'll be back to a GOP trifecta in no time. Stay watchful, Wisconsin Dems. Don't get complacent and keep fighting.

Remember everyone, it's still 2016 and it always will be. Forever.


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Wiz in Wis on September 25, 2018, 04:06:42 PM
Minnesota


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on September 25, 2018, 04:12:19 PM
Maine


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 25, 2018, 04:20:49 PM
Montana


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Holmes on September 25, 2018, 04:22:26 PM
Illinois


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Politician on September 25, 2018, 06:15:03 PM
West Virginia


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Dr. Arch on September 25, 2018, 06:20:22 PM

Mountain mama


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on September 25, 2018, 07:27:52 PM
Wisconsin


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 25, 2018, 08:58:47 PM
New Hampshire


Title: Re: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
Post by: IceSpear on September 26, 2018, 01:09:05 AM

Nevada