Talk Elections

Larry Hogan (R) - 54%
Ben Jealous (D) - 32%
Ian Schlakman (G) - 1%
Shawn Quinn (L) - 1%
Undecided - 9%

https://www.goucher.edu/hughes-center/documents/Goucher_Poll_Sept_2018_Part_2.pdf

Likely R, but with the possibility to go lean R/tossup. Surprised to see Hogan winning 35% African American voters, and 40% Democrats, though.

Safe R.

Hogan is not winning by 22 points.

Hogan getting 35% of the black vote!

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This is just trending farther and farther from us, stupid race and candidate. We should give up on this one (spoiler alert: Hogan wins again) and spend our cash elsewhere.

I doubt it will be this lopsided, but yeah, Hogan's not losing.

Maryland is, of course, Democratic state, but not all it's Democrats are very liberal. When Republicans offer non-extremist alternative to rather extreme Democratic candidate - you must expect a lot of defections. Of course - less, then in 1972 Mississippi (about 90% Democratic in many elections, and 87% for Nixon), but - still...

Hogan is moderate enough on guns, Jealous is too liberal on taxes. If Van Hollen was running with Jealous this would be a close race. I wish Mfume was in the seat instead of Cardin😁

The best group for Jealous is young people (18-34)

It won’t be that bad, but wow, that’s beyond pathetic for a Democrat running in MD. This is a state that is usually ready to vote for any (D) over any (R) at any time.

Dems are doing well in FL, and Hogan is a moderate, anyways just like Ehrlich who won, too.

Ehrlich lost reelection bid, Hogan will, probably, win it.

Here’s how Jealous can still win:

The Democrats already control everything. There is no Republican establishment for MD Democrats to rage against. Which means no state legislative grassroots wave like VA to push momentum up the ticket. Jealous is also too liberal for the type of Democrat that lives in MD. They'd rather have a Republican they can overrule than a Democrat that is to the left of the state party that they can't "keep in line".

Likely/Safe R.

But muh Tossup because Maryland

Obviously, this is Likely/Safe R, and nowhere near as likely to flip as Oklahoma. Hogan could win by double digits.

I really hope Maryland isn't going down the Massachusetts road of perpetual Democratic legislative super-majorities with Republican governors.

Too many Black people for that to happen.

Well it appears Hogan's outreach to Black voters is going rather well. Probably won't be this lopsided a win, but double digits is definitely possible.

Likely R, closer to Safe than Lean.

Maryland Democrats have essentially abandoned Jealous, there has been almost zero tv spots for him. Really piss poor effort by state officials. I’m debating leaving my ballot blank, other than Jealous, as protest. I already know I’m not voting for the Comptroller (didn’t endorse Jealous) and maybe Cardin (still can’t forgive his Iran Deal vote).

Jealous is a fine candidate and Hogan is far from a moderate. His true colors will be shown soon enough. The Maryland Democratic party has done effectively nothing to help Jealous with this campaign and many of them genuinely don't want him to win because he isn't Rushern Baker. It's truly vindictive. Hogan is one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country and the Maryland Dems have utterly blown it out of sheer spite.

Move from lean to likely R.


I also refuse to vote for Franchot. He is a shifty opportunist with calculated political instincts and no principles to speak of.

Safe R → Safe R.

Why would Van Hollen want to give up a Senate seat to be Governor of Maryland?
Though I sometimes wish Van Hollen hadn't run for Senate in 2016, because I think he'd now be the clear favorite for Speaker of the House next year.

I'm sure someone will put this in the Hofoid House but I don't care. We need to get dirty. Republican legislators and elected officials were bullied into supporting Trump, the same should be done here! This is a chance to enact a serious progressive agenda and the Democratic state party is choosing to allow a Republican to be elected when we have a chance to make real changes! We have two very democratic state legislative chambers and we're going to throw this chance away?  Any democratic state elected official who doesn't endorse Jealous(i.e., Franchot) should be threatened with a primary challenge! Democrats have to stop being mousy when the lives of people who can't afford insurance depend on it! The fight against Racist police corruption depends on it! The fight for tuition-free college depends on it! We should not let the corporatist neoliberal democratic establishment in Maryland ruin our chances

 As far as this poll goes, Hogan is likely leading by double digits, but not this much. I'd say about 14-15.  

What a surprise, I tell you.

I didn't say that. If Van Hollen was in the the class that Cardin was in, and Cardin was in the same class of SENATORS Van Hollen, it would be easier for Jealous to win. Cardin attracts the same type of voters Hogan does and Van Hollen attracts Jealous voters😀

You're right... the word "pathetic" doesn't do this justice, in a Democratic year no less.

Sounds safe R to me

What if not? If Democratic officeholders refuse to be bullied and will verbally send you .... far away (in order not to use profane words i make substitution here)???. After all - are they officially OBLIGED to blindly support party nominee??? If it's so, and you have "Bolshevick's-style" requirements for members of your party, i, personally, would not only desire to have nothing in common with it, but, probably, would never vote for it's candidates (out of principle). And about primarying Franchot and other, who strays from "your line" - try it. You think you all allmighty after AOC vcitory??? You are not, thanks God. I have relatives in US, and their votes will surely counterbalance yours)))). Try to return to reality, if you can))))

My prediction:  In the end Hogan wins something like 55-44%.  That just shows the low ceiling for a Republican in Maryland.

"Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well)."

Absolutely. "Reliable foot soldiers" is almost synonimic with "obedient idiots" in my parlance...

The reason it is unacceptable that the Democratic party has acted this way about Jealous is that it is simple political expediency. These people are strangulatig themselves because they’re afraid of looking bad. It all goes back to O’Malley being unpopular and Democrats being unwilling to take any pride in their achievements as such. This is not a principled stand in the name of policy. It isn’t as if we nominated someone truly ridiculous.

Jealous is by no means outside of the Democratic mainstream. He’s a tad further left than Rushern Baker or, say, Parris Glendening, but to pretend he’s some screaming left-winger — or even a doctrinaire Berniecrat — is lazy and vindictive. There is nothing about Ben Jealous or his campaign that would reasonably inspire more moderate Democrats to be so skeptical of him as they are, outside of tribalist factionalization and the refusal to fight Hogan on his out-and-out lies because of concerns about being unpopular. That is the real crime here. Spinelessness.

He is a pragmatic, harm reduction minded Democrat with some political sympathies to the Bernie wing. The Bernie people are souring on him because he isn’t an ideologue, the moderates don’t like him because the Democratic party wrote off this election by July when their guy didn’t win the primary, and the entire rest of the state has just bought into this moderate hero myth.

There is a profoundly racial character to Hogan’s campaign, as well. Jealous isn’t a “real Marylander” because he’s in Baltimore (and as we all know, western Maryland is the only smart population here because they voted for Hogan and he cut a toll!), he’s never had a “real job” (outside of running one of the most important civil rights organizations in American history), and here’s a photo of him wearing... gasp!... a hoodie! How uppity... is this who you want to pay your taxes to, Maryland?

I’d sooner have Ehrlich back than Hogan.

I would have rather had Mfume than Cardin. Mfume would have carried the day for Jealous and would be a more pro active Senator, can't wait til he retires

Just gonna quote this for truth

^ Nevertheless - you won't get Ehrlich back, and, almost assuredly, will get Hogan reelected for 2nd term. So, the only thing that's looks realistic - wait until 2022.

Especially because, IIUC, Hogan will be term-limited by then (not sure about Baker), and Scott and Sununu will need to go through one more election in 2020... There is a possibility that ALL these 4 seats will be open by 2022...

Dems I doubt won't have another 2010, under a Dem prez, due the Senate map being so tilted against GOP in 2022 and that give Dems more chances for Gov pickups

Why (just because it's MD) do I have a feeling there's going to be a bigtime "coming home" effect and that this race will actually get somewhat interesting?

When is the last time a MD GOPer won with >54% in any MD statewide race?

Spiro Agnew almost won by 9 points, but he only got 49.xx% and the Democrat much less because an indie siphoned votes away.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland_gubernatorial_election,_1966

Theodore R. McKeldin got almost the same margin as Agnew about 12 years earlier in his reelection.

Again, Cardin attracts the same voters as Hogan does. Van Hollen, Barbara Mikulski and Donna Edwards attract Jealous voters. Dems have to wait this one out. Blacks aren't enthusiastic enough to vote out Hogan with Cardin on ballot. If otherwise Van Hollen was on the ballot, and will vote for Hogan

I am probably going to be among very few people who vote for Ben Jealous but not Ben Cardin.

In the Senate Race, I plan on writing in something random such as "A Competent Democrat" or something similar.

Cardin has been disappointing

Jealous just is not a good fit for the state. Anyone saying otherwise does not know Maryland. We've almost always elected establishment-minded Democrats, and super lefties don't play well in the center-left leaning suburbs of DC and Baltimore.

Van Hollen, Barbara Ann Mikulski and Paul Sarbanes, especially Sarbanes who is a supper lefty went into Black communities and garnered their support. Cardin hasn't done such a thing and the status Quo will remain with Hogan😶

With 28% black, you have to galvanize them, who aren't registered to vote