Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Senator Cris on September 20, 2018, 02:01:17 PM



Title: TX-Vox Populi: Tie
Post by: Senator Cris on September 20, 2018, 02:01:17 PM
50/50. (https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/TX-Statewide-Survey-Toplines-Sept.-2018.pdf)

508 LV, conducted September 16-18th.


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: ON Progressive on September 20, 2018, 02:02:30 PM
1. Who is this pollster?
2. 0% undecided in September? Really?


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: Zaybay on September 20, 2018, 02:04:31 PM
1. Who is this pollster?
2. 0% undecided in September? Really?
Probably a poll where they push the undecideds. Anyway, this pollster is not well known, and I have no idea on their virtues/flaws, but overall information does point towards a low single digit race in favor of Cruz.


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on September 20, 2018, 02:07:18 PM
Hot take: having literally no undecideds right now is as bad as having 25% or more undecideds.


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 20, 2018, 02:09:28 PM
lol sure whatever


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: Sestak on September 20, 2018, 02:09:49 PM
Wait, in addition to the lack of undecideds, they also seem to have GCB of D+2 - so Beto is *underperforming* the GCB by 2 points?

Yeah no this is trash.


Title: Re: TX-Vox Populi: Tie
Post by: Tender Branson on September 20, 2018, 02:12:51 PM
1. Who is this pollster?
2. 0% undecided in September? Really?

Vox Populi is a R pollster, founded by major (former) RNC officials.

Also, Mary Cheney (daughter of Dick), was among the founders.

https://www.politico.com/story/2014/04/gop-polling-firm-vox-populi-polling-mary-cheney-105850

It seems they are only using results among voters who offered a choice - leaving out all the undecideds.


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 20, 2018, 02:15:22 PM
Hard to take it seriously given the TX numbers.


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: ON Progressive on September 20, 2018, 02:15:25 PM
1. Who is this pollster?
2. 0% undecided in September? Really?
Probably a poll where they push the undecideds. Anyway, this pollster is not well known, and I have no idea on their virtues/flaws, but overall information does point towards a low single digit race in favor of Cruz.

You can (and should) push undecideds, but I highly doubt you can push all of them. Also LOL @ Beto doing worse than the GCB. Even in a loss, Beto will very likely outperform the GCB


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on September 20, 2018, 02:17:50 PM
Why dont CNN and Fox poll this race


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: TarHeelDem on September 20, 2018, 02:29:50 PM
NUT


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on September 20, 2018, 02:37:01 PM
No


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on September 20, 2018, 02:44:15 PM
1. Who is this pollster?
2. 0% undecided in September? Really?

Another question - apparently 200 out of 500 responses were by "mobile-app based technologies." What specifically is that, and is it opt-in? It sounds like something different from calling cell phones. Since apparently they don't weight by partisanship, my guess (though I emphasize that this is pure speculation) is that this poll could be including too many Beto supporters who are opting in, and that could be skewing the result.

Also note that this is a poll of "active voters" (i.e. registered voters), not any sort of LVs.

Interestingly, the person on the "who we are" page for the pollster worked at the RNC previously.

https://poppolling.com/who-we-are/

If this is a partisan-affiliated poll, could it be that Republicans want the race to appear close in order to make Republicans think that it is close, because they are afraid Republicans won't vote otherwise since they think Dems can't win?


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on September 20, 2018, 02:45:56 PM
50/50. (https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/TX-Statewide-Survey-Toplines-Sept.-2018.pdf)

508 LV, conducted September 16-18th.

It is RV, not LV. Specifically it is "active voters," but that is a categorization of registered voters from the Secretary of State/local elections administrators in TX that includes basically all registered voters. Ones that are not included are ones who have not voted in forever but haven't been actually purged from the rolls.


Title: Re: TX-Vox Populi: Tie
Post by: aaroncd107 on September 20, 2018, 02:46:28 PM
1. Who is this pollster?
2. 0% undecided in September? Really?

Vox Populi is a R pollster, founded by major (former) RNC officials.

Also, Mary Cheney (daughter of Dick), was among the founders.

https://www.politico.com/story/2014/04/gop-polling-firm-vox-populi-polling-mary-cheney-105850

It seems they are only using results among voters who offered a choice - leaving out all the undecideds.

Before they push undecideds, the race is 46-46


Title: Re: TX-Vox Populi: Tie
Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on September 20, 2018, 02:48:44 PM
Before they push undecideds, the race is 46-46

That other 8% are listed as leaners (4% lean Cruz and 4% lean Beto), not as undecideds. They just didn't include an option of being undecided in the poll at all.


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on September 20, 2018, 02:49:43 PM
Wait, in addition to the lack of undecideds, they also seem to have GCB of D+2 - so Beto is *underperforming* the GCB by 2 points?

Yeah no this is trash.


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: Pollster on September 20, 2018, 02:55:45 PM
Looks like the forced undecideds to make a choice here. Great way to get genuine undecideds to stop taking the poll.

It does, however, usually push the results of the survey closer to the overall partisan lean of the state, which makes this a somewhat impressive showing for Beto.


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: KingSweden on September 20, 2018, 02:58:20 PM
Titanium R ——> Pure Tossup


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on September 20, 2018, 03:09:38 PM
Vox Populi was decent in 2014, they nailed NC Senate as I recall, it's basically Republican internal polling.


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on September 20, 2018, 03:10:36 PM
Anyways, I'm not sure why so many are dismissing this poll as "junk", it actually looks reasonable.


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: DrScholl on September 20, 2018, 03:10:52 PM
This is a polling outfit started by Mary Cheney with some others. It hasn't had the greatest results in the past if I recall correctly and is Republican leaning.


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 20, 2018, 03:13:34 PM
We have a race


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on September 20, 2018, 03:15:02 PM
They had Brown up by 4 in NH, but they also had Warner up by 4 so you can see they have a R bent, although VA ended up being a decent number, of course. This is pretty bad news for Ted Cruz.


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on September 20, 2018, 03:17:32 PM
538 gives them a "B" with a mean bias of 0.2% in favor of republicans, 77% of races called correctly in 11 polls.


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 20, 2018, 03:19:15 PM
Thank you Vox Populi.


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on September 20, 2018, 03:28:00 PM
BTW, in this poll, 54% support repealing ACA and 66% oppose getting rid of ICE, so you would think Cruz would be up by a decent margin....


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 20, 2018, 03:33:46 PM
Somehow, I think that Quinnipiac poll was much more believable than this one. I’d say Cruz is probably ahead by 4-6 points right now. Not safe by any means, but still the favorite.


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on September 20, 2018, 03:43:40 PM
Somehow, I think that Quinnipiac poll was much more believable than this one. I’d say Cruz is probably ahead by 4-6 points right now. Not safe by any means, but still the favorite.
Looking into the numbers, this poll is a much better gauge of what I am seeing on the ground.


Title: Re: TX-Wox Populi: Tie
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 20, 2018, 03:54:51 PM
The attacks on Ted Cruz, instead of playing Mr. Nice Guy has worked


Title: Re: TX-Vox Populi: Tie
Post by: Skye on September 20, 2018, 06:21:01 PM
I distinctly remember this pollster showed Monica Wehby leading Jeff Merkley in early 2014, sounding off some alarms. So...


Title: Re: TX-Vox Populi: Tie
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 20, 2018, 06:22:29 PM
Assuming a different electorate comes out, alot of these races like FL, ND, MT can spew different than out of the ordinary results


Title: Re: TX-Vox Populi: Tie
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on September 20, 2018, 06:42:14 PM
Doubtful.