Talk Elections

Ted Cruz - 48%
Beto O'Rourke - 45%

Trump approval: 47-50


PPP survey commissioned by Protect Our Care.

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Texas-Protect-Our-Care-Sept-18-2-Results.pdf

Finally a poll that isn't garbage in Texas!

if Ipsos wasn't accurate in TX, then Scott winning in FL isn't accurate either

This is about right, although I gotta point out Cruz is within the MOE. Tilt R closer to lean than pure tossup.

Cruz is still favored, but O'Rourke has made this a closer race than I ever expected.

I wouldn't count my chickens before they Hatch, Beto has come out attacking Cruz, this is a PPP poll but there is a blue wave coming, I still think Beto can win

Lean R. Cruz is still favored, but the days of Titanium R Texas are over. :(

This should be treated as a Dem internal - if it had a bad result for Beto, we have no way to know that it would be released. Yes, throw it in the pile, but the Quinnipiac poll with Cruz +9 is the highest quality recent poll.

The best thing about this poll is it has Cruz leading among whites only 61-34. If that is not too far off, that is about what Beto would need to be in serious business.

I'm skeptical though. In particular...

Too bad there is no education crosstab. Since they didn't ask education, I guess they didn't weight by education? If so they may have oversampled educated voters who are more likely to respond to polls.

Aren't more highly educated voters also more likely to vote, though?  So perhaps it balances out to some extent.

Not weighting by education is one of the reasons why polls and exit polls in 2016 were found after the fact to have undercounted WWC voters.

Beautiful poll! I imagine this is roughly where the race sits right now, give or take a point or two in either direction.

Yes, but this year is very likely to be a different electorate.  I think it's reasonable to assume that in 2016 lower educated voters were more motivated (relative to previous elections) than higher educated voters were, but in 2018 the reverse is probably true.

Now that looks believable (though probably a tad D-leaning because PPP)

I think Beto upsets Cruz

This is the Dems version of CA-SEN in 2010.

Yeah, I think you are right about that.

This is a reasonable expectation and I share it, but that doesn't mean it's a good idea not to poll education at all.

Dems are pouring money into TX

If Cornyn was up instead of Cruz , he easily would have won this race. Sure it would be closer than his usual wins but he still easily wins.


Cruz literally is one of the most unlikable senator in the country so in this type of year it’s not surprising it’s close .

That's why I like about Beto and this race, Beto has come out of his shell and has been attacking Cruz

Spot on.

In the end, it's coming down to turnout. Beto has a chance of turnout is high enough. Cruz, at this point, is still favored though.

Beto is closing in on the upset

I would agree with that.

I think that'll end up being Tennessee.

It doesn't have to be either/or.

The thing that gives me pause about Texas is that while I think Cruz will likely win, I don't think it will end up as a blowout like California was.

Cruz isn't likely to win, Cook moved this to tossup

This has been a Toss-Up for a few weeks now on my map. Honestly the more people underestimate Beto the higher his chances get.

Icespear has said Gillum and Beto aren't winning. Dems have the momentum now with Kavanaugh allegations, we can make wave happen. Early voting will bank the votes in early.

Almost spot on. Cruz won by 2.56%

He shoots, he scores!

This should squash any talk of PPP being a ridiculous D pollster. They're generally close to the mark.

That's what I've been trying to tell some of the non-believers on here. ::)