Talk Elections

Casey (D-inc) 53
Barletta (R) 35

http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-morning-call-muhlenberg-poll-pennsylvania-catholic-church-20180921-htmlstory.html

Hofoid and Beet told me Pennsylvania is a red state though.

That is why Casey can only manage to poll 53%, despite being an INCUMBENT and having INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE. Don't you know about INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE?

Tim Johnson's 62% win in 2008 means that South Dakota was a blue state then, right?

That would be a better argument than the argument that PA is a red state just because of plurality wins of under 1% with a lower share of the vote than GWB in 2004 (who lost PA).

I don’t see him winning by more than 12, but obviously he’s heavily favored.

Wow, 47% of voters not supporting Casey. Tossup, imo

Barletta: “47% of Pennsylvanians oppose the Casey agenda!”

Casey and Wolf will win by 10

This doesn't make me think PA won't necessarily be competitive in 2020, because Barletta has run a garbage campaign.

Nobody has said PA won't be competitive in 2020, it's that it's probably going to favor whoever the Dem nominee is. You're right that Barletta being absolute trash is boosting Casey.

No neither argument is strong or right.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a good argument either.

Barletta has been one of the biggest candidate flameouts of the cycle. He was supposed to be a strong candidate who could re-create the Trump coalition and potentially make this race a toss up, LOL.

I fail to see how Fitzpatrick survives with the top ticket being this lopsided

Gerlach survived a similarly lopsided top of the ticket in 2006, and Fitzpatrick's brother almost did. But yeah, it ain't 2006 anymore.

If the margins are anywhere as close to this, I think Wallace will be dragged over the finish line.

But tbh, the way that Fitz is going so nasty in his ads makes me think this race isn't as pro-Fitz as pundits like to think.

I wonder what a county map would look like with a Dem winning PA by 18 points. I worry that that Dems would just be getting North Korean like levels of support in Philly and Pittsburgh, and getting slaughtered less badly in the center and southwest. Seeing Hillary losing Erie and even almost losing Scranton was scary to see.

Casey actually won by 18 points in 2006, so it would be pretty cool to see a 2006-2018 swing map if he had a similar margin this time. It might even be sig worthy. :)

I don't think he actually wins by 18 though. Barletta's numbers will probably improve a bit as we get closer to election day and his name recognition goes up. But the prospect of him even getting it within single digits is starting to look like a stretch.

I haven't seen a single Barletta ad.

I actually haven't seen many Barletta OR Wagner ads. If anything, I've been seeing a TON of Wolf ads. Not much for Casey but they are sparingly. I'm in Montco btw. Wolf ads air every day multiple times in the morning when I have the TV on.

Also, tons of Kim/MacArthur ads and Wallace/Fitzpatrick ads.

Seen any Hugin ads? From Bucks and have seen a couple.

No one ever said that. Ever.

Yep, I've been seeing a few. A couple pro-Hugin and a couple anti-Hugin. Some anti-Menendez but can't say I've seen a whole lot of pro-Menendez ones

The fact that Barletta still has a name recognition problem in late September says a lot about the state of his campaign.

It's odd too because Wagner saturated the HELL out of this market during the primary. But he must be broke because I'm still not seeing any ads for him. And the Tom Wolf ads I'm seeing are pro-Wolf from him, and not Anti-Wagner, which makes 100% sense. No point in going anti-Wagner when hes barely a blip on the radar right now.