Talk Elections

An internal for Abrams released these results(Likely Voters):

Abrams(D)- 48%

Kemp(R)- 42%

Metz(L)- 3%

https://secure.staceyabrams.com/page/-/2018_September/Email/Polling%20Memo%20from%20Garin%20Hart%20Yang.pdf

> internal

This is probably still a tossup.

Kemp's only saving grace is that he isn't as polarizing as DeSantis.

The final result will be 51-47-2 Abrams

N U T, but still worth taking with a grain of salt.

Abrams might be running one of the best campaigns this cycle.

No.

Great news

I want to believe.

States are gonna go against norm and GILLUM is good position as well😀,

I think is Abrams is already over 50...but Kemp is somewhere around 46-47.

In short, I don't think are that many undecided voters left.

GHY is a good Democratic internal pollster, but they do have a bias. Halve the margin and that's probably a more realistic indicator of where we are currently (aka the Danger Zone™).

Correct. Republicans have been spending millions throwing punches that aren’t landing. Abrams is racking up thousands of votes as we speak through her VBM initiative and booming population centers are itching to go to the polls for her. Abrams is running the biggest field operation in this state’s history. I plan to move this to Tilt D once we start getting absentee and early vote numbers.

God a gubernatorial runoff in Georgia is going to be a nasty, expensive fight. Kemp will no doubt go nuclear with toxic ads and probably dirty tricks, while massive amounts of cash are airlifted into the state by hyper-excited Democratic activists and depressed Republican billionaires eager to win something after licking their wounds from November 6th.

I feel good about an Abrams win in a runoff though. Democrats have excelled in lower-turnout elections so far, and since this isn't a presidential election, I don't think a big win by Democrats in the GE is going to suck the air out of the wave. Trump will still be in office, and he'll still be pissing off voters big time. The question is whether Georgia is ripe enough to send a Democrat to the govs mansion.

Democratic internal polls shouldn’t be taken at face value, but yeah, it has been obvious since 2016 that this race is fairly competitive. This is a Trump +5 state with a very high D floor that’s trending strongly Democratic, after all.

Fortunately Abrams will win outright on November 6. I think she's going to clear 1.4 million and Kemp will do a tad worse than the 1.34 million Deal got in 2014.

I think it's probably more like 48-46 Abrams, she just needs that last 2%. Hopefully she can find it in the pool of unregistered voters and rurals.

Abrams is probably ahead 1-3% right now.

I see what you did there.

So it's still probably a tie.

It's an internal, but I could buy Abrams being at 48%. The question is whether or not she can get to 50%, though.

Nothing matters if Abrams can't get above 50%.

Looks about right. Abrams will win.

If ABRAMS and GILLUM win, CORDRAY and SISOLAK should look fine, I don't see how Dems win in more rural states before they win in the more urban states, as well as Iowa usually votes with Ohio

Pure toss-up, because an internal and just one poll. But this race looks better than I expected in June.

It's gonna be a tsunami

Why? I hear people say this a lot but Georgia has never had a gubernatorial runoff and people seem to be extrapolating an awful lot from a couple of senate runoffs, one of the old atlas things that southern undecided voters always go GOP was defeated last year, wonder if runoffs in Georgia always = gop wins will be the next?

This was supposed to be an easy hold for GOP

Ignore the noise. Abrams is literally running a campaign that has never been ran in Georgia with an electorate that has never existed in Georgia. Whatever happened in the 90’s or with Jim Martin is really irrelevant.