Talk Elections

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_September_25_2018.pdf

Same Poll has Gianforte + 9 over Williams

This Race has tightened up considerably.

This isn't gonna be easy, it's a pure tossup now

Might be surprising, but Im not going to take this poll rather seriously. There is just...something about this poll that makes me want to trash it. I cant think of what it is, but its there. Its almost like I can sense its presence.

Does it start with a G and end with an S?

Tilt D.

Too bad Gianforte leads by 9. This is lean R.

MT-AL results:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_September_25_2018.pdf

Anyway, a MT Democrat winning by 4?! When has that ever happened before? :P The Senate numbers are believable, the House numbers... less so. It’s better than their last poll, but that’s a very low bar.

I don’t believe 17% of Democrats voting for Greg Gianforte for a second, but it’s Gravis so I shouldn’t expect much.

LOL, it's a Toss Up now.

Trump won Montana by 21 Points in 2016. That means something. If Tester wins he is going to win it because Trump Voters staying home.

And why are Trump Voters staying home: Because the Democrats blocking Kavernaugh!

This is high quality analysis

Daines won his race big, and Foxx is gonna be Gov. I know 2016, was Clinton's fault but Tester failed to get the Dems the Majority

Despite the believable toplines for both races... it’s Gravis, guys

Junk with believable numbers. Hmmmm...

g r a v i s

but this is at least somewhat believable, except the house result. Still gonna take it with a grain of salt.

You ever heard of Steve Bullock and his electoral history?

MT is an elastic state in down-ballot races and Tester a popular incumbent running for reelection in a favorable environment against a low-profile challenger. Tester is safer than Nelson, Heitkamp or McCaskill.

Lean D race is Lean D.

WHAT'S EVERYONE COMPLAINING BOUT?! Tester by 4 is a decent result for us, and sounds realistic.

Their crosstabs can be very weird, I honestly wouldn’t pay any attention to them. But yeah, I know this forum is convinced that Montana is the most elaaaaaaaastic state in the country, but I’d be very surprised if Gianforte did 13 points better than Rosendale. Obviously there will be no shortage of Tester/Gianforte voters (and let’s be honest here: Williams' first name doesn’t help), but Gianforte, while not an extremely weak incumbent, isn’t exactly someone with a lot of crossover appeal, and I fail to see in which areas of the state he’s going to do much better than last time around. My current prediction is Tester +3, Gianforte +5/6, and I wouldn’t call either race "safe" for the incumbent (Lean D and R, respectively, is a fair rating at this point IMO).

Also, I’m not sure where this idea that Fox is the electoral savior of the MT Republican Party who will make MT-GOV 2020 Safe R comes from.

Anyways, Tilt D.

"Tester's Numbers Beginning to Sink Amidst Trump Attention"? I doubt he was ever ahead by more than 4 or 5 points in this race.

Of course Gravis would only poll Garfield County...

They probably only polled pro-life, gun-owning, hardcore Republicans from Winnett.

Essentially the undecideds.

http://www.mtpr.org/post/trump-voters-not-necessarily-slam-dunk-republicans-montana#stream/0

If you're saying that 2016's margin proves Montana has gotten more Republican-leaning or something, I don't really buy that:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana,_2000
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana,_2004

It's not the first time it voted >20 points for the Republican. I think 2008 and 2012 just misled people a bit and they forgot that Montana is usually a considerably Republican state at the presidential level but competitive in other statewide races.

Nice

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/408265-montana-gop-senate-candidate-dropped-civil-charges-against-donor-report

Believable top line.

Tester was never going to win by a lot. I think people's confidence in Tester derives from this being a static, 3-5 point Lean D race for the entirety of the campaign.

Yeah.  Could we please stick to simple reporting of the poll results in the titles and leave out interpretations?

Yeah, I don't know where this idea that he was gonna run away with it by 10+ points came from.

I was thinking the same thing. A potential four point win in a Trump state (even if it is Gravis)? I'll take it. What more do people want?

I wonder if we'll ever get a real poll out of Montana, aside from the Gravis/YouGov/internal poo poo platter.

People attaching too much importance to "candidate quality" and exaggerating the state's "elasticity". What’s new?