Talk Elections

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/USA-ELECTION/010080D20RG/index.html

Whitmer 52
Schuette 39

It's pretty incredible how Whitmer has totally broken out. Wasn't Schuette getting triaged too?

Yeah, the RGA has basically already given up on Schuette.

Somewhat similar to FL and GA, when the GOP thanks to their leader's Twitter account nominated the weakest possible candidate?

But Whitmer seems to be a strong candidate regardless. Likely D, much closer to Safe D than Lean.

I'm happy for Michigan. However, is this enough to flip the State Senate? Redistricting is gonna be a huge deal in 2 years.

The RGA seems to be the only one running ads for Schuette, more specifically it’s only one ad comparing Whitmer to Granholm and saying if we elect Whitmer that we’ll be back to 15% unemployment.

The state GOP has pretty much given up on the Governor and SoS races and are instead putting their money into the AG race. Dana Nessel is a fire-breathing progressive lesbian who will probably churn out 5 lawsuits against the Trump administration every day if she was elected AG and that’s their worst nightmare.


If Proposal 2 passes, the redistricting will be done by an independent panel going forward. Even if the districts are drawn impartially in 2020, I still think the Dems win the House and the Senate. Michigan is shaping up to be the hardest-hit State by the Blue Wave of 2018.

I don't know if it will be - there are a lot of open seats, so it's actually more possible than it's been in a long time, if that helps at all. Keep in mind that Democrats won the popular vote for state House districts by 8 points in 2012 yet failed to flip the chamber. They need to win around 10 - 11 points to flip the state House I think, and that may also be enough for the state Senate. It's definitely possible this year.

However, it's not needed to stop R gerrymandering in Michigan. Whitmer can veto rigged maps, and there is an amendment on the ballot to take redistricting away from the legislature and put it into an independent commission. Both Whitmer and the indie commission amendment look likely to win.

Why they keep polling this State so assiduously is beyond me.

I wish they would poll the ballot initiatives and state legislative / generic ballot stuff instead. We already know Whitmer has this locked down. What is more important to know now is how the other races will go. It's particularly noteworthy this cycle since a huge wave of open seats via term limits has possibly put the entire legislature in play for the first time in a long while.

And that's on top of the possibility of Michigan not only getting marijuana legalization, but redistricting reform and a huge package of pro-voter access reforms that would bring MI from one of the worst states in terms of voting rights to the top 10, overnight.

Why hasn't RCP posted this poll? They haven't posted any of the polls from Reuters today.

Probably because Trump won it in 2016.

They rarely poll Wisconsin, at least not nearly as much as they poll Michigan, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

Then I have no other explanation. Yeah, it's weird.