Talk Elections

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-news-poll-ohio-gubernatorial-race-tied-brown-leads-big-n913081

DeWine 47
Cordray 47

interesting

One of four Tossup on gubernatorial races for now (my rating) (other: KS, OK, GA)

Dewine will not win

Kind of embarrassing for Cordray that he needs a Democratic wave and a double digit Brown lead just to tie DeWine. This could still flip, but it's definitely going to be much harder than IA or WI.

And this guy is going to be president? Color me skeptical. :P

I think Cordray can pull this out, but DeWine benefits from the popular outgoing Kasich and higher name recognition than Cordray ...

In both polls today, Cordray has much better favourables than DeWine (ca. +15 vs. +8), but Cordray is still unknown to 35% of voters vs. just 15% for DeWine.

If he can get his name recognition up, he'll pull ahead by 3-5% by mid- to late-October.

What a nice poll😁

Would be nice to see Cordray pull this out.  After November, there is the possibility for nine of the top 10 states that will have Democratic governors (Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio--Texas being the one exception).

Still a tossup, though a worrisome one.

Hmmmm....

I wonder if we will continue to see these types of trends in post Labor Day polls now that voters are starting to tune into the election.

I would still give DeWine an edge here, being Ohio and all, not to mention being a Household name whose been around for decades in state politics (Still remember sipping iced tea and eating cookies his wife baked on his front porch back in the early '90s in SW-OH, when he was just a lowly US-House member).

Still, been a long time "Politician" can cut both ways, especially if the voters in Ohio haven't really seen the "hope and change" they were expecting after Trump got elected President....

I'm kinda curious how DeWine managed to make everybody forget that he lost his Senate seat in disgrace 12 years ago.

I told you guys Cordray wasn't out of it.

I really wish we knew more about the polling methodologies that even "higher quality" polling firms are using to model the 2018 electorate in various elections.

By all indications based upon actual votes cast in Special Elections, history would tend to suggest that it is a bit different than in recent Midterm elections (2010 and 2014).

How are polling methodologies and models being adjusted? Are LV screens consistent between polling organizations? What types of internal feedback loops are in place to detect outliers and if so, how are these measured and quantified?

I guess that's one of the things I like about the NYT/Sienna House polls, is that at least they are being more transparent, and additionally have some type of "internal review" that flags races where the variance is higher than modeling suggests in order to explore *WHY* the variance exists, and is the variance a function of polling models versus actual polling responses.

I believe that's exactly what cordray's banking on. There has been this absolutely incessant Internet Ad I've heard during damn near every commercial break on YouTube for the last few weeks where it flashes pictures and years of deline running from the 70s bit by bit up to the present year by year, while the audio is of Dwayne being interviewed on some talk show where the host is quoted saying now I talk to people and they say Mike dewine whoa, he's been around a long time. Does it bother you to be a career politician? Dewine responds no, it doesn't.

I strongly suspect his next few lines were long the lines of appreciating public service and wanting to give back, etc etc but the fact it is being played at saturation levels for an internet ad indicates that is exactly what cordray thinks is Dwayne's Achilles heel.

Mind you I guess he doesn't really consider it his Achilles heel, because that implies dewine is otherwise in vulnerable. Now he started playing an ad hitting on to Wine joining a lawsuit which went to the Supreme Court and severely curtailed overtime rules. Sure, I believed wine only did so his amica's cure eye among a bunch of other attorney generals, but it certainly shows where do wines loyalties lie, and that's an effective attack.