Talk Elections

The actual race:
Dunleavy (R) 44
Begich (D) 29
Walker (I-inc) 23

Two-way theoretical races:
Dunleavy (R) 50
Begich (D) 47

Dunleavy (R) 55
Walker (I-inc) 41

Begich (D) 46
Walker (I-inc) 40

https://www.facebook.com/alaskasurvey/posts/1141423086010323?

If anyone finds a PDF, let me know and I'll link it in this post.

So, much for a Begich or Walker comeback

B-b-but muh weak candidate Dunleavy :(

Anyway, nice. Moving this from Toss-up to Lean R.

Definitely lean R. Walker needs to drop so that Begich has a chance.

JUNK POLL!

Only 4% undecided? Seriously?

Also, three way races ALWAYS poll badly. Polls showed Colorado as a pure tossup in 2010 only for Hickenlooper to win by 15. Polls showed LePage ahead by a monster margin and he won by 4 in 2010.

It's almost like Dunleavy performed "weakly" before only because he had far less name recognition than an incumbent governor and former senator. Who would've thought?

Anyway, Safe R.

Walker and Murkowski have been doing alot for Native Americans, that why Knowles was pretty along with 1term of Begich the only Dems to be elected

Humiliating for Walker that he's in third. Even Rauner is doing better than he is. Probably going to move this to Likely R, not sure why Bad Boy Begich has to break our hearts like this.

Remember when Republicans were more likely to win NV than AK because of "candidate quality" and incumbency? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

He’s a good boy who’s just misunderstood. Wacky Walker needs to bow out.

What a sad end to Begich's political career this will be. He could've had a decent comeback campaign against Sullivan in 2020 instead he'll end up handing the Governorship to a far right Republican.

Walker is a menace

Walker is down 14 without Begich lmao

Walker is the incumbent governor that had support from the Democrats. Begich entered the race out of nowhere for no reason, split the anti-Republican vote, and began attacking Walker. It's not surprising his numbers cratered when he's getting attacked from both sides. The classic Charlie Crist dilemma. He led Dunleavy in earlier head to head match ups.

Walker has no reason to bow out to accomodate Begich's massive and unwarranted ego. Even the unions are supporting Walker. And Dunleavy is clearly going to win no matter what at this point anyway thanks to Begich.

Native Tribes are found of the Murkowski message and they can relate better to the GOP more so than Dems. Murkowskis who are GOPers have been doing this for a long time.

Stay Lean R, in both 2-way races Tossup

Yes, the incumbent governor shouldn't seek re-election because muh split ticket

A few interesting crosstabs:

Southeast Alaska: Walker +18 (45% Walker, 27% Dunleavy, 24% Begich)
Rural Alaska: Begich +1 (35% Begich, 34% Walker, 28% Dunleavy)
Southcentral Alaska: Dunleavy +36 (57% Dunleavy, 21% Begich, 18% Walker)
Anchorage: Dunleavy +7 (43% Dunleavy, 36% Begich, 19% Walker)
Fairbanks: Dunleavy +26 (50% Dunleavy, 24% Begich, 21% Walker)

18-34: Begich +3 (36% Begich, 33% Dunleavy, 25% Walker)
35-44: Dunleavy +10 (42% Dunleavy, 32% Walker, 25% Begich)
45-54: Dunleavy +32 (55% Dunleavy, 23% Begich, 18% Walker)
55+: Dunleavy +19 (48% Dunleavy, 29% Begich, 21% Walker)

White: Dunleavy +24 (49% Dunleavy, 25% Begich, 24% Walker)
Non-white: Begich +11 (43% Begich, 32% Dunleavy, 21% Walker)

Walker is that unpopular? Maybe he should drop out instead of Begich. He may perform worse than Rauner at this point.

He shouldn't seek reelection because he's down 14 points in a head-to-head with Dunleavy, while begich is only down three

It's stupid to say he should just give up on his job because some losing senator with a seemingly big ego jumped in.

It's stupid to go down in Flames as a spoiler when the big ego senator with whom he shares somewhat more ideologically and in principle has a much better chance of winning in a head-to-head match.

Please understand that this is coming from someone who admires Walker and, in a three-way race where he had a realistic chance of winning, would likely vote for him.

Alaska, whose minor parties perform very well in statewide elections, should immediately adopt runoffs.