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Title: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Skye on October 01, 2018, 10:06:28 AM Menendez (D, inc.) 45
Hugin (R) 43 Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Politician on October 01, 2018, 10:07:21 AM Likely D, due to the national environment, but Menendez would be losing in a Clinton midterm. Yet another example that candidate quality matters.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on October 01, 2018, 10:10:19 AM Menendez, you make me sad.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 01, 2018, 10:11:28 AM Menendez, you make me sad. This, but he will still win. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: KingSweden on October 01, 2018, 10:13:11 AM Good thing the environment will probably save him
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 01, 2018, 10:15:00 AM But you know that there was a major crapping of the diapers in NJ if we are more likely to win PA and MI than NJ lmao.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: MT Treasurer on October 01, 2018, 10:18:06 AM Safe D, Menendez will win no matter what (and would have won even in a Clinton midterm, lol) since he has that magical (D) next to his name. I don’t actually blame any Democrat for voting for him, but it’s sad that this scumbag made it out of the primary.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 01, 2018, 10:30:49 AM A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: 😥 on October 01, 2018, 10:34:47 AM Lean D
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: ON Progressive on October 01, 2018, 10:41:02 AM A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6. This poll also has only a 4% Hispanic sample in a state where 18% of the population are Hispanic. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 01, 2018, 10:43:42 AM A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6. This poll also has only a 4% Hispanic sample in a state where 18% of the population are Hispanic. Oh wow, I did not catch that one at first, thanks for pointing it out. Yeah I looked and they clock in at a slightly smaller 14% of the electorate usually, but that is significantly more than 4%, and they go heavier than even the generic American hispanic. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 01, 2018, 10:45:40 AM Yeah, I feel a little better now, if we factor in the hispanic deficit in the poll too, Menendez is probably up by 7-8.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Tintrlvr on October 01, 2018, 10:46:02 AM New Jersey has a history of really high undecideds and nearly all undecided voters choosing the Democrat, even outside of D wave years, so I wouldn't take this too seriously as indicative of a competitive race. If the Republicans had run someone better than Hugin... maybe.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on October 01, 2018, 10:47:09 AM Good thing the environment will probably save him More like a bad thing. Hugin would clearly be a far better Senator. Unfortunately, this poll way under sampled miniorities, so Menendez is probably leading by much more Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: BudgieForce on October 01, 2018, 10:47:27 AM Stockton likes to oversample whites.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Xing on October 01, 2018, 11:14:22 AM Suuuuure. Anyway, Menendez will definitely win by an underwhelming margin, but if candidate quality matters so much more than the partisan lean of a state, why isn't he losing by significantly more than any other incumbent Democrat?
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: TheSaint250 on October 01, 2018, 11:21:14 AM Good thing the environment will probably save him More like a bad thing. Hugin would clearly be a far better Senator. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Skye on October 01, 2018, 11:22:18 AM Suuuuure. Anyway, Menendez will definitely win by an underwhelming margin, but if candidate quality matters so much more than the partisan lean of a state, why isn't he losing by significantly more than any other incumbent Democrat? It's obvious that the fact that this is a stubbornly Democratic state that's facing a blue wave is going to save Menendez. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Xing on October 01, 2018, 11:25:17 AM Suuuuure. Anyway, Menendez will definitely win by an underwhelming margin, but if candidate quality matters so much more than the partisan lean of a state, why isn't he losing by significantly more than any other incumbent Democrat? It's obvious that the fact that this is a stubbornly Democratic state that's facing a blue wave is going to save Menendez. That's exactly my point. The fact that New Jersey is a blue state and that this year is going to be Democratic-friendly have more impact on this race than Menendez being a terrible candidate. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: isoscelessquare on October 01, 2018, 11:32:43 AM A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Ebsy on October 01, 2018, 11:37:40 AM Stockton's September poll in 2016 has Clinton +6 in NJ.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on October 01, 2018, 11:38:08 AM Woah. Didn’t expect that
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: KingSweden on October 01, 2018, 11:47:09 AM A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6. If this is the case then the poll doesn’t tell us much Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: BudgieForce on October 01, 2018, 11:50:11 AM Stockton's September poll in 2016 has Clinton +6 in NJ. Stockton always under samples minority voters. You'd think they would have tried to correct this by now. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: BudgieForce on October 01, 2018, 11:52:01 AM A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6. 2017 had record low turnout which 2018 wont have and 2006 was 12 years ago and the state has gotten a lot less white since then. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: BudgieForce on October 01, 2018, 12:01:51 PM Seriously, if the electorate is over 80% white like Stockton is suggesting, Menendez might lose. However, the electorate in a democrat leaning midterm is probably going to be under 70% white. I know we shouldn't unskew, but it frustrates me that Harry Enten and Nate Silver wont even point out the huge flaws in this poll.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Senator Incitatus on October 01, 2018, 12:02:09 PM A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6. Stockton obviously has problems that make this poll favor Hugin, but I wouldn't assume Asian voters are going to go for Menendez in any big way. I think he'll be under 60% with them. The real problem is the undersampling of Hispanics and black voters. A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6. 2017 had record low turnout which 2018 wont have and 2006 was 12 years ago and the state has gotten a lot less white since then. It has also gotten a lot less non-Hispanic black since 2006. Population growth in NJ is almost entirely driven by Hispanic and especially (South) Asian populations. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: BudgieForce on October 01, 2018, 12:14:12 PM A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6. Stockton obviously has problems that make this poll favor Hugin, but I wouldn't assume Asian voters are going to go for Menendez in any big way. I think he'll be under 60% with them. The real problem is the undersampling of Hispanics and black voters. A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6. 2017 had record low turnout which 2018 wont have and 2006 was 12 years ago and the state has gotten a lot less white since then. It has also gotten a lot less non-Hispanic black since 2006. Population growth in NJ is almost entirely driven by Hispanic and especially (South) Asian populations. Fun fact, NJ would be facing a small but significant population decline if it were not for non-whites moving and having families there. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 01, 2018, 12:16:44 PM Safe D, Menendez will win no matter what (and would have won even in a Clinton midterm, lol) since he has that magical (D) next to his name. I don’t actually blame any Democrat for voting for him, but it’s sad that this scumbag made it out of the primary. lol no Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 01, 2018, 12:19:50 PM Ouch. That's embarrassing.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: MT Treasurer on October 01, 2018, 12:21:47 PM Safe D, Menendez will win no matter what (and would have won even in a Clinton midterm, lol) since he has that magical (D) next to his name. I don’t actually blame any Democrat for voting for him, but it’s sad that this scumbag made it out of the primary. lol no Zero chance NJ is sending a Republican, no matter how moderate they are, to the Senate. Zero reason to believe that Clinton would have been unpopular in NJ of all places. MT, ND, IN, MO, OH, WV, etc.? Sure. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: BudgieForce on October 01, 2018, 12:22:15 PM Ouch. That's embarrassing. More for Stockton than Menendez. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Beet on October 01, 2018, 12:22:18 PM I wouldn't be surprised to see Hugin pull it off at all. Time to add this race to the list of battlegrounds.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Senator Incitatus on October 01, 2018, 12:25:37 PM The poll specifically says 4% Hispanic and 8% black pre-weighting. Did they only weight by likelihood or did they also presumably weight by race?
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Politician on October 01, 2018, 12:26:23 PM Safe D, Menendez will win no matter what (and would have won even in a Clinton midterm, lol) since he has that magical (D) next to his name. I don’t actually blame any Democrat for voting for him, but it’s sad that this scumbag made it out of the primary. lol no Zero chance NJ is sending a Republican, no matter how moderate they are, to the Senate. Zero reason to believe that Clinton would have been unpopular in NJ of all places. MT, ND, IN, MO, OH, WV, etc.? Sure. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 01, 2018, 12:26:43 PM Menendez is an embarrassment for the Democratic party but he will prevail for the same reasons Pat Roberts did four years ago.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: BudgieForce on October 01, 2018, 12:27:47 PM The poll specifically says 4% Hispanic and 8% black pre-weighting. Did they only weight by likelihood or did they also presumably weight by race? I'm not sure how accurately you can weigh 24 people tbh. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Senator Incitatus on October 01, 2018, 12:28:47 PM Quote from: Menendez Camp “We knew this would be a competitive race given the millions greedy drug company CEO Bob Hugin spent on TV he made off the backs of cancer victims and their families, but we are confident Senator Menendez will prevail on Election Day. No one has fought harder and longer and delivered more for New Jersey than Bob Menendez. The energy and enthusiasm for Bob Menendez is palpable where ever he goes around the state. Democrats are energized and understand what’s at stake. His message is getting out there and people are responding. At the end of the day, New Jerseyans will choose a proven fighter who will stand up to Trump’s dangerous policies, not a Trump, Christie Republican like Bob Hugin who made a fortune ripping off cancer patients and will never have our back and will just be another vote for Trump’s dangerous policies.” Quote from: Hugin “Today’s poll is no surprise. Since launching my campaign, I’ve made over 400 campaign stops and met thousands of voters throughout the state. Whether you’re a Democrat, Republican, or Independent, voters want a Senator who will put New Jersey first and represent them with honor and integrity. That’s why a growing number of Democrats are publicly endorsing my campaign.” Quote from: Hugin Camp “As we approach Election Day, it’s clear that voters are unwilling to re-elect Bob Menendez, a corrupt, career politician who violated federal law and abused the power of his office for his donor friend, a convicted felon who blinded patients with lasers, scammed seniors, and stole $73 million from Medicare,” said Campaign Manager Stacy Schuster. “As the people of New Jersey continue to learn more about Marine veteran and job creator Bob Hugin’s track record of service and working together with others to get results, we’re confident they will support Bob Hugin on Election Day.” Beyond candidate quality, it's striking how terrible the Menendez campaign is as an operation. This is probably partly a product of Menendez's own flaws, though. What credible operative would want to work for this scumbag? Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Yellowhammer on October 01, 2018, 12:30:30 PM I think the final result will be something like Menendez +6
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 01, 2018, 12:32:42 PM Safe D, Menendez will win no matter what (and would have won even in a Clinton midterm, lol) since he has that magical (D) next to his name. I don’t actually blame any Democrat for voting for him, but it’s sad that this scumbag made it out of the primary. lol no Zero chance NJ is sending a Republican, no matter how moderate they are, to the Senate. Zero reason to believe that Clinton would have been unpopular in NJ of all places. MT, ND, IN, MO, OH, WV, etc.? Sure. IL 2010, DE 2010 if Republicans didnt nomiante O'Donnell Tom Kean would be the next senator Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Senator Incitatus on October 01, 2018, 12:33:24 PM The poll specifically says 4% Hispanic and 8% black pre-weighting. Did they only weight by likelihood or did they also presumably weight by race? I'm not sure how accurately you can weigh 24 people tbh. Not very. Wish we had actual crosstabs so we could see if there were any counter-intuitive results. I don't really have a problem with it if they found Menendez gets 90% of the black vote and 75% of the Hispanic vote or something similar, and then weighted that. It might not be a accurate picture of the race, but at least we'd know it's not an overestimate of Hugin's real support. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: KingSweden on October 01, 2018, 12:33:55 PM I think the final result will be something like Menendez +6 Yeah somewhere between Menendez by 4-6 seems reasonable to me Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: MT Treasurer on October 01, 2018, 12:43:38 PM IL 2010, DE 2010 if Republicans didnt nomiante O'Donnell Tom Kean would be the next senator Blue states have gotten much more polarized since then. Even in 2014, the GOP did terribly in states far less Democratic than NJ (MI/MN/etc.). IL-SEN 2010 and MA-SEN 2010 were outliers, not the norm. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 01, 2018, 12:46:25 PM IL 2010, DE 2010 if Republicans didnt nomiante O'Donnell Tom Kean would be the next senator Blue states have gotten much more polarized since then. Even in 2014, the GOP did terribly in states far less Democratic than NJ (MI/MN/etc.). IL-SEN 2010 and MA-SEN 2010 were outliers, not the norm. Franken was pretty popular in 2014 while Menendez is pretty unpopular Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Tintrlvr on October 01, 2018, 12:51:51 PM Quote from: Menendez Camp “We knew this would be a competitive race given the millions greedy drug company CEO Bob Hugin spent on TV he made off the backs of cancer victims and their families, but we are confident Senator Menendez will prevail on Election Day. No one has fought harder and longer and delivered more for New Jersey than Bob Menendez. The energy and enthusiasm for Bob Menendez is palpable where ever he goes around the state. Democrats are energized and understand what’s at stake. His message is getting out there and people are responding. At the end of the day, New Jerseyans will choose a proven fighter who will stand up to Trump’s dangerous policies, not a Trump, Christie Republican like Bob Hugin who made a fortune ripping off cancer patients and will never have our back and will just be another vote for Trump’s dangerous policies.” Quote from: Hugin “Today’s poll is no surprise. Since launching my campaign, I’ve made over 400 campaign stops and met thousands of voters throughout the state. Whether you’re a Democrat, Republican, or Independent, voters want a Senator who will put New Jersey first and represent them with honor and integrity. That’s why a growing number of Democrats are publicly endorsing my campaign.” Quote from: Hugin Camp “As we approach Election Day, it’s clear that voters are unwilling to re-elect Bob Menendez, a corrupt, career politician who violated federal law and abused the power of his office for his donor friend, a convicted felon who blinded patients with lasers, scammed seniors, and stole $73 million from Medicare,” said Campaign Manager Stacy Schuster. “As the people of New Jersey continue to learn more about Marine veteran and job creator Bob Hugin’s track record of service and working together with others to get results, we’re confident they will support Bob Hugin on Election Day.” Beyond candidate quality, it's striking how terrible the Menendez campaign is as an operation. This is probably partly a product of Menendez's own flaws, though. What credible operative would want to work for this scumbag? New Jersey has very unusual politics. Unlike with Democrats who have lost in New Jersey, like Corzine, who was abandoned by the county machines in favor of Christie, Menendez has the full backing of the county machines, so there's a lot of operatives out there working in his favor. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 01, 2018, 12:51:51 PM Yeah, no.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 01, 2018, 04:37:02 PM This race is gonna be close.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Skye on October 01, 2018, 04:43:47 PM I'm personally waiting for Monmouth and Quinnipiac to poll this race again. I have it as Lean D for now.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: ON Progressive on October 01, 2018, 04:45:23 PM I'm personally waiting for Monmouth and Quinnipiac to poll this race again. I have it as Lean R for now. "Lean R" No. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Skye on October 01, 2018, 04:58:32 PM I'm personally waiting for Monmouth and Quinnipiac to poll this race again. I have it as Lean R for now. "Lean R" No. As Lean D, SORRY, it was a mistake. I don't want to be a laughing stock :'[ Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Bojack Horseman on October 01, 2018, 05:04:38 PM With everything that's at stake in this election, every Democrat in New Jersey needs to just hold their nose and vote for Bob Menendez. If we lose New Jersey and the Senate ends up split 50-50 with Pence breaking the tie, how are you going to feel then?
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: CityofSinners on October 01, 2018, 05:10:59 PM Patrick Murray(Manmouth polling director) thinks the poll has problems with a representitive sample and likely overestimates republicans.
That doesn't mean Menendez will win but take this poll with a serious amount of salt. https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1046879386006372354 Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: NewYorkExpress on October 01, 2018, 05:49:19 PM I can believe this poll.
I also think that New Jersey probably will probably reelect Menendez by exactly that margin. Maybe: Bob Menendez 50% Bob Hugin 48% Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: BudgieForce on October 01, 2018, 05:49:35 PM Oh wow. You know its bad when someone like Patrick Murray openly calls out another pollster.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 01, 2018, 06:19:29 PM Menendez can be the lone Democrat to lose rather than Heidi
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: IceSpear on October 01, 2018, 06:31:08 PM Menendez is godawful, but the political environment and NJ's partisanship should save him. But if it doesn't and Hugin somehow pulls off the miracle, honestly, Dems only have themselves to blame. They're utter morons for backing Menendez.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: IceSpear on October 01, 2018, 06:37:07 PM Likely D, due to the national environment, but Menendez would be losing in a Clinton midterm. Yet another example that candidate quality matters. It matters far more for Democrats than for Republicans. Duncan Hunter's scandal is far worse than Menendez's yet it barely made a dent. Republican voters don't care about scandals. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: BudgieForce on October 01, 2018, 07:08:35 PM We're getting a Fairleigh Dickinson poll on Wednesday thats apparently younger and less white. So be careful with the panic until then unless you want to end up with egg on your face.
https://twitter.com/MattFriedmanNJ/status/1046852932828897280 Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Progressive Pessimist on October 01, 2018, 07:11:12 PM With everything that's at stake in this election, every Democrat in New Jersey needs to just hold their nose and vote for Bob Menendez. If we lose New Jersey and the Senate ends up split 50-50 with Pence breaking the tie, how are you going to feel then? Don't worry I am. It will disappoint my friend and fellow Bergen County resident-Admiral President, but he's got my vote. There is too much at stake and I'm pretty certain that other New Jersey Democrats feel the same way, I've talked to some of them. I personally would have just preferred if he retired, and we had Frank Pallone or Steve Fulop run for his seat instead. Anyway. Hahaha! This poll is not going to be accurate! Anti-Hugin ads have finally been assaulting the airwaves. It will still probably be closer than it should be, but in no way is Menendez going to lose. Also this race will not be closer than West Virginia's. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: IceSpear on October 01, 2018, 07:14:07 PM We're getting a Fairleigh Dickinson poll on Wednesday thats apparently younger and less white. So be careful with the panic until then unless you want to end up with egg on your face. https://twitter.com/MattFriedmanNJ/status/1046852932828897280 I don't see anyone panicking in this thread. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: BudgieForce on October 01, 2018, 07:15:37 PM We're getting a Fairleigh Dickinson poll on Wednesday thats apparently younger and less white. So be careful with the panic until then unless you want to end up with egg on your face. https://twitter.com/MattFriedmanNJ/status/1046852932828897280 I don't see anyone panicking in this thread. Whatever Icespear. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: IceSpear on October 01, 2018, 07:20:50 PM We're getting a Fairleigh Dickinson poll on Wednesday thats apparently younger and less white. So be careful with the panic until then unless you want to end up with egg on your face. https://twitter.com/MattFriedmanNJ/status/1046852932828897280 I don't see anyone panicking in this thread. Whatever Icespear. Okay? I was just stating an objective fact. I'm guessing it was aimed at me despite me explicitly saying Hugin would need a miracle to win. But even if it wasn't, I didn't see a single person in this thread "panicking" when I skimmed through it. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: BudgieForce on October 01, 2018, 07:24:23 PM We're getting a Fairleigh Dickinson poll on Wednesday thats apparently younger and less white. So be careful with the panic until then unless you want to end up with egg on your face. https://twitter.com/MattFriedmanNJ/status/1046852932828897280 I don't see anyone panicking in this thread. Whatever Icespear. Okay? I was just stating an objective fact. I'm guessing it was aimed at me despite me explicitly saying Hugin would need a miracle to win. But even if it wasn't, I didn't see a single person in this thread "panicking" when I skimmed through it. Thats the case with most of the threads in this forum. If a thread gets alot of activity, its a train-wreck. If alot of people are speaking out against a poll, their panicking. I know no one was actually panicking, it just seems like common terminology around here. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on October 01, 2018, 09:39:48 PM How did this corrupt windbag win the primary? What the hell is wrong with NJ Dems?
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: IceSpear on October 01, 2018, 09:42:18 PM How did this corrupt windbag win the primary? What the hell is wrong with NJ Dems? His primary opponent was literally a some chick and she still got like 40%. Any remotely competent Democrat with an actual campaign and money would've beaten him, but the moronic NJ Dems/national Dems cleared the field for the corrupt sack of dogsh**t. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: ON Progressive on October 01, 2018, 09:47:27 PM How did this corrupt windbag win the primary? What the hell is wrong with NJ Dems? NJ Democrats are some of the most corrupt politicians on either side of the aisle. I have no idea why the voters tolerate it at all and keep on letting the machine control primaries, but it's disgusting. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 01, 2018, 09:51:31 PM How did this corrupt windbag win the primary? What the hell is wrong with NJ Dems? NJ is one of the biggest machine states. It was by far the best state for Hillary that wasn't a slave state in 1860. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Sir Mohamed on October 02, 2018, 01:48:56 AM Still don't get it why this dude wasn't challenged in the primary by a formidable opponent? The wave will safe Mendenez, but I'm really disappointed this race is at this state.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 02, 2018, 02:53:19 AM How did this corrupt windbag win the primary? What the hell is wrong with NJ Dems? Because he had the full backing of the New Jersey party machine and that scared away any legitimate challenger. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Politician on October 02, 2018, 06:48:50 AM I wish Rush Holt had run, he would win easily and would be a really good Senator.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Averroës Nix on October 02, 2018, 03:20:04 PM Menendez can be the lone Democrat to lose rather than Heidi Vote For the Crook. It's Important. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on October 02, 2018, 03:23:36 PM Menendez can be the lone Democrat to lose rather than Heidi Vote For the Crook. It's Important. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: 2016 on October 02, 2018, 07:21:17 PM CNN changes New Jersey Senate Race from Likely to Lean Democrat...
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/02/politics/new-jersey-senate-bob-menendez/index.html?utm_term=image&utm_medium=social&utm_content=2018-10-02T19%3A13%3A07&utm_source=twCNNp (https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/02/politics/new-jersey-senate-bob-menendez/index.html?utm_term=image&utm_medium=social&utm_content=2018-10-02T19%3A13%3A07&utm_source=twCNNp) https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/01/politics/menendez-hugin-new-jersey-senate-poll/index.html (https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/01/politics/menendez-hugin-new-jersey-senate-poll/index.html) The Race is between 2 and 6 Points apparently. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Progressive Pessimist on October 02, 2018, 08:27:50 PM I wish Rush Holt had run, he would win easily and would be a really good Senator. That would have been amazing! He is (or was) one of my favorite political figures in my state! Unfortunately we're still stuck with Menendez for another six years, you know, since he is going to win again. Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Lord Admirale on October 02, 2018, 09:03:00 PM https://youtu.be/ypHZ_iKBcoo
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Lord Admirale on October 02, 2018, 09:05:31 PM ()
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Lord Admirale on October 02, 2018, 09:10:36 PM ()
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Lord Admirale on October 02, 2018, 09:11:49 PM S E N A T O R () B O B E R T H U G I N Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: BudgieForce on October 02, 2018, 09:12:01 PM Like I said, if the 2018 NJ electorate is +80% white like Stockton thinks it'll be, then yes, Menendez is vulnerable. However, chances are the electorate will be under 70% white and Menendez is in no actual danger. Hopefully the FDU poll tomorrow shows that.
Title: Re: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2 Post by: Senator Incitatus on October 02, 2018, 11:31:20 PM I wish Rush Holt had run, he would win easily and would be a really good Senator. |