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Title: VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8 Post by: ON Progressive on October 01, 2018, 04:40:28 PM Phil Scott (R-inc) 50 Christine Hallquist (D) 42 Title: Re: VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8 Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 01, 2018, 04:41:57 PM Scott can lose.
Title: Re: VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8 Post by: Strong Candidate on October 01, 2018, 04:43:06 PM Vermont has an odd rule where, if no one exceeds fifty percent of the vote, the winner is chosen by the Legislature. We could see some serious sh**t go down if Scott wins with say 49.99%.
Title: Re: VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8 Post by: MT Treasurer on October 01, 2018, 04:47:26 PM Likely R. Scott has a much better chance of winning than a certain other GOP incumbent in a certain other New England state that shall go unnamed.
Title: Re: VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8 Post by: Skye on October 01, 2018, 04:50:06 PM Haven't heard of this pollster. But it's a D internal, so that says a bit about the margin.
Polls in Vermont are always sparse, and more often than not, junk, so I'll probably keep this race as Lean R for a while. Title: Re: VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8 Post by: BundouYMB on October 01, 2018, 04:53:36 PM Scott is only +3 (47-44) among likely voters.
Title: Re: VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8 Post by: Xing on October 01, 2018, 04:54:58 PM Vermont has an odd rule where, if no one exceeds fifty percent of the vote, the winner is chosen by the Legislature. We could see some serious sh**t go down if Scott wins with say 49.99%. Hasn't the legislature voted for the candidate who got the most votes every time for over 100 years, though. Anyway, Likely R. Title: Re: VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8 Post by: IceSpear on October 01, 2018, 05:37:58 PM So as expected, Scott will likely win by double digits.
Title: Re: VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8 Post by: IceSpear on October 01, 2018, 05:38:52 PM Vermont has an odd rule where, if no one exceeds fifty percent of the vote, the winner is chosen by the Legislature. We could see some serious sh**t go down if Scott wins with say 49.99%. Hasn't the legislature voted for the candidate who got the most votes every time for over 100 years, though. Anyway, Likely R. Yeah, the legislature has made it pretty clear they have no intention of ever going against the popular vote. Which leads to the obvious question of why they don't just change the law. Likely R. Scott has a much better chance of winning than a certain other GOP incumbent in a certain other New England state that shall go unnamed. Don't be a hack, Charlie Baker is obviously going to win. Title: Re: VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8 Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 01, 2018, 06:20:21 PM Scott will win, unlike Sununu, but whether he clears the 50% thresehold, is a different story
Title: Re: VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8 Post by: Progressive Pessimist on October 01, 2018, 07:20:37 PM Scott is going to win but this is a pretty bad poll for him.
Title: Re: VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8 Post by: MT Treasurer on October 01, 2018, 07:28:48 PM Scott is going to win but this is a pretty bad poll for him. Why, though? He’s at 50% and up by 8 in a Democratic internal in a D+15 state. Not saying he couldn’t possibly lose, but how is it pretty bad? Title: Re: VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8 Post by: Progressive Pessimist on October 01, 2018, 07:31:04 PM Scott is going to win but this is a pretty bad poll for him. Why, though? He’s at 50% and up by 8 in a Democratic internal in a D+15 state. Not saying he couldn’t possibly lose, but how is it pretty bad? From what I've gathered, the assumption was for Scott win by a similar level to what Charlie Baker probably will. Title: Re: VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8 Post by: MAINEiac4434 on October 01, 2018, 11:33:32 PM Scott is going to win but this is a pretty bad poll for him. Why, though? He’s at 50% and up by 8 in a Democratic internal in a D+15 state. Not saying he couldn’t possibly lose, but how is it pretty bad? From what I've gathered, the assumption was for Scott win by a similar level to what Charlie Baker probably will. Scott cratered his approval rating with conservatives by backing gun control laws on the wake of Parkland, but didn’t get a bump from Ds. He faced a tough primary challenge and got through it. I’m surprised he’s up by this much in a D internal. Title: Re: VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8 Post by: smoltchanov on October 02, 2018, 12:30:05 AM So as expected, Scott will likely win by double digits. Yeah. Despite being squeezed from both sides he remains reasonably popular. Title: Re: VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8 Post by: TheSaint250 on October 02, 2018, 07:24:16 AM Scott is going to win but this is a pretty bad poll for him. Why, though? He’s at 50% and up by 8 in a Democratic internal in a D+15 state. Not saying he couldn’t possibly lose, but how is it pretty bad? From what I've gathered, the assumption was for Scott win by a similar level to what Charlie Baker probably will. It's a Dem internal. Also, I can't remember anyone saying Scott would perform as well as Baker. A double-digit win, sure, but not matching Baker's performance. Title: Re: VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8 Post by: Figueira on October 02, 2018, 07:34:43 AM Vermont has an odd rule where, if no one exceeds fifty percent of the vote, the winner is chosen by the Legislature. We could see some serious sh**t go down if Scott wins with say 49.99%. People always bring this up, but the Vermont legislature always elects the popular vote winner. It's a "rule" that only exists on paper. Title: Re: VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8 Post by: Senator Incitatus on October 02, 2018, 12:58:05 PM Still Likely R.
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