Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Strong Candidate on October 01, 2018, 06:31:24 pm



Title: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Strong Candidate on October 01, 2018, 06:31:24 pm
https://www.kfyrtv.com/content/news/SRA-Poll-shows-ND-Senate-race-numbers-reaction-to-Supreme-Court-nominee-Brett-Kavanaugh-case-494849131.html

Kevin Cramer (R)-51
Heidi Heitkamp (D)-41


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: superbudgie1582 on October 01, 2018, 06:32:24 pm
Who?


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: dfwlibertylover on October 01, 2018, 06:33:05 pm
Oh please lol


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: dfwlibertylover on October 01, 2018, 06:35:41 pm
There was a poll in October 2012 that found Berg with a 10 point lead too, interesting


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on October 01, 2018, 06:36:47 pm
This poll is obviously garbage


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: libertpaulian on October 01, 2018, 06:36:50 pm
Heitkamp needs to Todd Akin him, hard.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on October 01, 2018, 06:37:06 pm
Cramer ahead is believable. Cramer ahead by double digits? Not so much.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: superbudgie1582 on October 01, 2018, 06:37:33 pm
There was a poll in October 2012 that found Berg with a 10 point lead too, interesting

Hopefully Heidi has a new newspaper to hold up when she wins.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 01, 2018, 06:39:02 pm
Quote
In another question that VNL asked, 60% of the likely voters in North Dakota support the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. 27% were opposed.

But I thought the Kavanaugh controversy/Cramer's "gaffe" were going to spell doom for him? Cramer +10 is definitely hard to believe (especially if Tester is ahead by 4), but anyone who believes Cramer is the next Akin doesnít know what theyíre talking about.

Edit: Oh, this was taken before Cramer's comments. Still, not a good poll for her by any means.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Ebsy on October 01, 2018, 06:41:56 pm
Seems to be a real firm, though I don't believe they have ever released a public poll of a race, so they have absolutely no record.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Xing on October 01, 2018, 06:44:04 pm
Definitely seems tough to believe, but I'll certainly buy Heitkamp being in trouble. It would be pretty funny if she ended up winning by 1 again, after a poll showed her down 10.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: KingSweden on October 01, 2018, 06:45:02 pm
Quote
In another question that VNL asked, 60% of the likely voters in North Dakota support the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. 27% were opposed.

But I thought the Kavanaugh controversy/Cramer's "gaffe" were going to spell doom for him? Cramer +10 is definitely hard to believe (especially if Tester is ahead by 4), but anyone who believes Cramer is the next Akin doesnít know what theyíre talking about.

Edit: Oh, this was taken before Cramer's comments. Still, not a good poll for her by any means.

Wait it was taken that long ago? Was their WV during a similar date range?


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Strong Candidate on October 01, 2018, 06:45:31 pm
Seems to be a real firm, though I don't believe they have ever released a public poll of a race, so they have absolutely no record.

They just released the Manchin +8 poll.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 01, 2018, 06:45:37 pm

As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: KingSweden on October 01, 2018, 06:46:53 pm

As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

I mean she hasnít leaned into the Cramer stuff as hard as one thought she might after he made the comments.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Ebsy on October 01, 2018, 06:47:39 pm
Seems to be a real firm, though I don't believe they have ever released a public poll of a race, so they have absolutely no record.

They just released the Manchin +8 poll.

Interesting. Seems they are expanding their business to TV stations. I wonder who owns these two stations.

Edit: Seems like both are owned by Gray Television,


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: superbudgie1582 on October 01, 2018, 06:51:17 pm
Quote
In another question that VNL asked, 60% of the likely voters in North Dakota support the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. 27% were opposed.

But I thought the Kavanaugh controversy/Cramer's "gaffe" were going to spell doom for him? Cramer +10 is definitely hard to believe (especially if Tester is ahead by 4), but anyone who believes Cramer is the next Akin doesnít know what theyíre talking about.

Edit: Oh, this was taken before Cramer's comments. Still, not a good poll for her by any means.

Wait it was taken that long ago? Was their WV during a similar date range?

The West Virginia poll released today was done between 9/17 through 9/26.

http://media.graytvinc.com/documents/September+Survey.pdf


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: KingSweden on October 01, 2018, 06:58:07 pm
Quote
In another question that VNL asked, 60% of the likely voters in North Dakota support the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. 27% were opposed.

But I thought the Kavanaugh controversy/Cramer's "gaffe" were going to spell doom for him? Cramer +10 is definitely hard to believe (especially if Tester is ahead by 4), but anyone who believes Cramer is the next Akin doesnít know what theyíre talking about.

Edit: Oh, this was taken before Cramer's comments. Still, not a good poll for her by any means.

Wait it was taken that long ago? Was their WV during a similar date range?

The West Virginia poll released today was done between 9/17 through 9/26.

http://media.graytvinc.com/documents/September+Survey.pdf

I feel like that doesnít tell us much... unless Kavanagh hearings didnít move the needle much in either direction (which would not surprise me)


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 01, 2018, 06:58:16 pm

As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

I mean she hasnít leaned into the Cramer stuff as hard as one thought she might after he made the comments.

Because unlike this forum and Twitter users from California she realizes it would backfire. Looks like the Dems overplaying their hand with Kavanaugh has already blown up in her face and could very well cost them their chance at the Senate. Brilliant strategery. Between that and them backing corrupt clown Menendez....Dems are so bad at politics it makes me wince sometimes.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: pppolitics on October 01, 2018, 06:59:16 pm
Totally never heard of this pollster before


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: 2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable on October 01, 2018, 07:05:35 pm

As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

I mean she hasnít leaned into the Cramer stuff as hard as one thought she might after he made the comments.

Because unlike this forum and Twitter users from California she realizes it would backfire. Looks like the Dems overplaying their hand with Kavanaugh has already blown up in her face and could very well cost them their chance at the Senate. Brilliant strategery. Between that and them backing corrupt clown Menendez....Dems are so bad at politics it makes me wince sometimes.

Democrats are not overplaying their hands with Kananaugh, and the situation is going to result in massive pain for Republicans across the nation, in both R leaning areas, and in D leaning areas, and Icespear concern trolling on the topic is irrelevant to reality.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: superbudgie1582 on October 01, 2018, 07:06:37 pm

As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

I mean she hasnít leaned into the Cramer stuff as hard as one thought she might after he made the comments.

Because unlike this forum and Twitter users from California she realizes it would backfire. Looks like the Dems overplaying their hand with Kavanaugh has already blown up in her face and could very well cost them their chance at the Senate. Brilliant strategery. Between that and them backing corrupt clown Menendez....Dems are so bad at politics it makes me wince sometimes.

You get an inch and you take a mile.

By the looks of it, this poll was taken entirely before the hearings and Cramer's comments. While they might not make much of impact, I think its far too soon to say its blown up in anybodies faces yet.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 01, 2018, 07:06:51 pm
Wow, Berg +10. It's over for Heitkamp.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 01, 2018, 07:08:10 pm
Just because the polls underestimated Heitkamp in 2012 doesnít mean they will underestimate her again this year. And the difference between 2012 and 2018 is that there were actually polls showing Heitkamp up in 2012. There hasnít been one this year since February (and that was from Gravis and had 17% undecideds), and apparently private polling has been pretty ugly for Democrats here. The ND GOP is also much more competent than MO GOP/MT GOP/etc., and Cramer isnít as "weak" as this forum is making him out to be.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 01, 2018, 07:08:59 pm

As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

I mean she hasnít leaned into the Cramer stuff as hard as one thought she might after he made the comments.

Because unlike this forum and Twitter users from California she realizes it would backfire. Looks like the Dems overplaying their hand with Kavanaugh has already blown up in her face and could very well cost them their chance at the Senate. Brilliant strategery. Between that and them backing corrupt clown Menendez....Dems are so bad at politics it makes me wince sometimes.

Democrats are not overplaying their hands with Kananaugh, and the situation is going to result in massive pain for Republicans across the nation, in both R leaning areas, and in D leaning areas, and Icespear concern trolling on the topic is irrelevant to reality.

I realize you're Solid, but surely even you can't be delusional enough to think North Dakota opposes Kavanaugh, right? Not everyone is a left wing Chelsea Manning supporter living in Maryland you know. This is rock solid Trump country we're talking about here.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: superbudgie1582 on October 01, 2018, 07:10:40 pm
Just because the polls underestimated Heitkamp in 2012 doesnít mean they will underestimate her again this year. And the difference between 2012 and 2018 is that there were actually polls showing Heitkamp up in 2012. There hasnít been one this year since February (and that was from Gravis and had 17% undecideds), and apparently private polling has been pretty ugly for Democrats here. The ND GOP is also much more competent than MO GOP/MT GOP/etc., and Cramer isnít as "weak" as this forum is making him out to be.

According to RCP, Heidi only lead in one poll in June and that seemed like an outlier at the time. Also, what private polling?


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Virginia on October 01, 2018, 07:15:00 pm

As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

I mean she hasn’t leaned into the Cramer stuff as hard as one thought she might after he made the comments.

Because unlike this forum and Twitter users from California she realizes it would backfire. Looks like the Dems overplaying their hand with Kavanaugh has already blown up in her face and could very well cost them their chance at the Senate. Brilliant strategery. Between that and them backing corrupt clown Menendez....Dems are so bad at politics it makes me wince sometimes.

What exactly should they have done then? I think you are forgetting how hard of a needle this is to thread, where Kavanaugh is not just any nominee, but a potential rapist nominee in the #MeToo era nominated by Donald J. Trump, another serial sexual assaulter who has currently lit a nuclear-hot fire under the collective asses of the Democratic Party. I mean... what do you expect? Even if they didn't want to fight over this confirmation with everything they had, the base demands it. You could also argue that Republicans are completely overplaying their own hands here with regards to Gardner too. This kind of issue could come back and bite him in the ass or potentially tank his favorables after the confirmation if Democrats move to weaponize it effectively. Voting for a rapist justice is something a lot of people on the left seem to be taking note of.

Regarding Menendez, it's a shame but, again, this is really just a failure of local political machines not prioritizing ethics and actually reliably winning elections over their friends and favors. Not to mention that the primary voters decided to keep him. Again, Republicans and Republican primary voters have made loads of joke decisions themselves over the years, costing them a number of important, high-profile races. So yes, not trying to oust Bob with everything they had was a dumb move, but not exactly unique in its stupidity among both parties.

-

We really need more polling of ND in general. And until I see proof, I'm not willing to buy in completely to the idea that voting against even a rapey SCOTUS nominee means CURTAINS for these people. I'd like to see solid evidence first. I can buy that Heidi is down, but not necessarily that this confirmation is killing her.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Xing on October 01, 2018, 07:17:48 pm
Just because the polls underestimated Heitkamp in 2012 doesnít mean they will underestimate her again this year. And the difference between 2012 and 2018 is that there were actually polls showing Heitkamp up in 2012. There hasnít been one this year since February (and that was from Gravis and had 17% undecideds), and apparently private polling has been pretty ugly for Democrats here. The ND GOP is also much more competent than MO GOP/MT GOP/etc., and Cramer isnít as "weak" as this forum is making him out to be.

I wasn't trying to imply that I think ND polls are going to be wrong again, I just think it would be funny if a 10-point lead in a poll proved to be wrong again for the same race. I think Heitkamp is the most vulnerable Democrat, though, and certainly more likely to lose than not at this point (and you know that I've been bearish on her chances for a while :P)


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: superbudgie1582 on October 01, 2018, 07:21:44 pm

......

We really need more polling of ND in general. And until I see proof, I'm not willing to buy in completely to the idea that voting against even a rapey SCOTUS nominee means CURTAINS for these people. I'd like to see solid evidence first. I can buy that Heidi is down, but not necessarily that this confirmation is killing her.

We need more polling in general. Is it me or has the amount of polling astronomically declined since 2014? Its frustrating that due to the lack of polling, one poll can set the narrative for an entire race.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: 2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable on October 01, 2018, 07:22:57 pm
This race is still very much a Lean D race.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Badger on October 01, 2018, 07:27:41 pm
Smells fishy


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 01, 2018, 07:32:44 pm

As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

I mean she hasnít leaned into the Cramer stuff as hard as one thought she might after he made the comments.

Because unlike this forum and Twitter users from California she realizes it would backfire. Looks like the Dems overplaying their hand with Kavanaugh has already blown up in her face and could very well cost them their chance at the Senate. Brilliant strategery. Between that and them backing corrupt clown Menendez....Dems are so bad at politics it makes me wince sometimes.

What exactly should they have done then? I think you are forgetting how hard of a needle this is to thread, where Kavanaugh is not just any nominee, but a potential rapist nominee in the #MeToo era nominated by Donald J. Trump, another serial sexual assaulter who has currently lit a nuclear-hot fire under the collective asses of the Democratic Party. I mean... what do you expect? Even if they didn't want to fight over this confirmation with everything they had, the base demands it. You could also argue that Republicans are completely overplaying their own hands here with regards to Gardner too. This kind of issue could come back and bite him in the ass or potentially tank his favorables after the confirmation if Democrats move to weaponize it effectively. Voting for a rapist justice is something a lot of people on the left seem to be taking note of.

Regarding Menendez, it's a shame but, again, this is really just a failure of local political machines not prioritizing ethics and actually reliably winning elections over their friends and favors. Not to mention that the primary voters decided to keep him. Again, Republicans and Republican primary voters have made loads of joke decisions themselves over the years, costing them a number of important, high-profile races. So yes, not trying to oust Bob with everything they had was a dumb move, but not exactly unique in its stupidity among both parties.

-

We really need more polling of ND in general. And until I see proof, I'm not willing to buy in completely to the idea that voting against even a rapey SCOTUS nominee means CURTAINS for these people. I'd like to see solid evidence first. I can buy that Heidi is down, but not necessarily that this confirmation is killing her.

I realize the base is itching for a fight, but turning it into Waterloo probably wasn't the best idea. It might be a winning issue for them from a national perspective, but in the Senate they're trying to hold or win very red territory where both Trump and Kavanaugh are popular. It's just something that's going to polarize the electorate. This could help them in the House, but in the Senate map it's going to hurt. On top of that, he's likely to get confirmed regardless of how hard the Democrats fight, so was it really worth the political capital?

As for Gardner, he has the benefit of the election being 2 years away, so nobody will remember or care by then. And he's already an underdog regardless. It doesn't matter what Heller does because he's already DOA and has clearly embraced the strategy of praying for a miracle that Republicans turn out and Democrats don't.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: wbrocks67 on October 01, 2018, 07:37:15 pm
Just because the polls underestimated Heitkamp in 2012 doesnít mean they will underestimate her again this year. And the difference between 2012 and 2018 is that there were actually polls showing Heitkamp up in 2012. There hasnít been one this year since February (and that was from Gravis and had 17% undecideds), and apparently private polling has been pretty ugly for Democrats here. The ND GOP is also much more competent than MO GOP/MT GOP/etc., and Cramer isnít as "weak" as this forum is making him out to be.


The problem with that argument is that there have not really many polls of this race *period* this year


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: superbudgie1582 on October 01, 2018, 07:46:52 pm

As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

I mean she hasnít leaned into the Cramer stuff as hard as one thought she might after he made the comments.

Because unlike this forum and Twitter users from California she realizes it would backfire. Looks like the Dems overplaying their hand with Kavanaugh has already blown up in her face and could very well cost them their chance at the Senate. Brilliant strategery. Between that and them backing corrupt clown Menendez....Dems are so bad at politics it makes me wince sometimes.

What exactly should they have done then? I think you are forgetting how hard of a needle this is to thread, where Kavanaugh is not just any nominee, but a potential rapist nominee in the #MeToo era nominated by Donald J. Trump, another serial sexual assaulter who has currently lit a nuclear-hot fire under the collective asses of the Democratic Party. I mean... what do you expect? Even if they didn't want to fight over this confirmation with everything they had, the base demands it. You could also argue that Republicans are completely overplaying their own hands here with regards to Gardner too. This kind of issue could come back and bite him in the ass or potentially tank his favorables after the confirmation if Democrats move to weaponize it effectively. Voting for a rapist justice is something a lot of people on the left seem to be taking note of.

Regarding Menendez, it's a shame but, again, this is really just a failure of local political machines not prioritizing ethics and actually reliably winning elections over their friends and favors. Not to mention that the primary voters decided to keep him. Again, Republicans and Republican primary voters have made loads of joke decisions themselves over the years, costing them a number of important, high-profile races. So yes, not trying to oust Bob with everything they had was a dumb move, but not exactly unique in its stupidity among both parties.

-

We really need more polling of ND in general. And until I see proof, I'm not willing to buy in completely to the idea that voting against even a rapey SCOTUS nominee means CURTAINS for these people. I'd like to see solid evidence first. I can buy that Heidi is down, but not necessarily that this confirmation is killing her.

I realize the base is itching for a fight, but turning it into Waterloo probably wasn't the best idea. It might be a winning issue for them from a national perspective, but in the Senate they're trying to hold or win very red territory where both Trump and Kavanaugh are popular. It's just something that's going to polarize the electorate. This could help them in the House, but in the Senate map it's going to hurt. On top of that, he's likely to get confirmed regardless of how hard the Democrats fight, so was it really worth the political capital?

As for Gardner, he has the benefit of the election being 2 years away, so nobody will remember or care by then. And he's already an underdog regardless. It doesn't matter what Heller does because he's already DOA and has clearly embraced the strategy of praying for a miracle that Republicans turn out and Democrats don't.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Cory Booker on October 01, 2018, 07:47:46 pm
Likely R


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Virginia on October 01, 2018, 07:47:53 pm
I realize the base is itching for a fight, but turning it into Waterloo probably wasn't the best idea. It might be a winning issue for them from a national perspective, but in the Senate they're trying to hold or win very red territory where both Trump and Kavanaugh are popular. It's just something that's going to polarize the electorate. This could help them in the House, but in the Senate map it's going to hurt. On top of that, he's likely to get confirmed regardless of how hard the Democrats fight, so was it really worth the political capital?

As for Gardner, he has the benefit of the election being 2 years away, so nobody will remember or care by then. And he's already an underdog regardless. It doesn't matter what Heller does because he's already DOA and has clearly embraced the strategy of praying for a miracle that Republicans turn out and Democrats don't.

It's just a matter of perspective I guess. I'm not convinced this particular confirmation fight is going to be the big loser for Senate Democrats that is semi-common knowledge right now. I've always been really skeptical of the argument that any fight over the courts inherently favors conservatives (polling right now seems to suggest Democrats care more than Republicans), mostly because conservative voters who even know what the Supreme Court is and/or can even name more than one justice are already staunch Republicans that vote like clockwork. But this time is different, mostly because Kavanaugh is not very popular and accusations of sexual assault do give Democrats some cover among voters the few voters that may care about this and aren't dyed-in-the-wool Republicans. Perhaps it wouldn't have mattered as much in another time, but this particular era is marked by a backlash to sexual abuse and does appear to be having noticeable effects on elections and the candidates that run. Of course, I get that some people think Republicans just don't care about rape or sexual assault because of the magical R, and to a large extent that is probably true, but it doesn't mean they all do. Even a small ~15% sliver is a huge deal in most states.

Gardner can't run a base-only strategy in 2020, so I think once Democrats remind the right people of his vote in this case, it'll peel enough some voters away. It's certainly a potential liability. Voters aren't necessarily indifferent to this stuff. It's just when your goal is convince partisan voters to change their minds that it becomes a problem.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Dr. RI on October 01, 2018, 07:57:54 pm
Worth noting that ND had the highest Kavanaugh support of any Dem-incumbent Senate state (albeit a month ago). (http://wpaintel.com/scotus-model/)

Also worth mentioning that ND has changed demographically probably more than any other state since 2012.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Bagel23 on October 01, 2018, 08:00:54 pm
I mean I think Cramer wins but this is a bit much.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: KingSweden on October 01, 2018, 08:09:42 pm
I mean I think Cramer wins but this is a bit much.
Whoa I agree with bagel


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Cory Booker on October 01, 2018, 08:10:40 pm
Cramer wins by 5


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Temporarily Embarrassed Millionaire on October 01, 2018, 08:10:56 pm
[X] doubt


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 01, 2018, 08:13:18 pm
I realize the base is itching for a fight, but turning it into Waterloo probably wasn't the best idea. It might be a winning issue for them from a national perspective, but in the Senate they're trying to hold or win very red territory where both Trump and Kavanaugh are popular. It's just something that's going to polarize the electorate. This could help them in the House, but in the Senate map it's going to hurt. On top of that, he's likely to get confirmed regardless of how hard the Democrats fight, so was it really worth the political capital?

As for Gardner, he has the benefit of the election being 2 years away, so nobody will remember or care by then. And he's already an underdog regardless. It doesn't matter what Heller does because he's already DOA and has clearly embraced the strategy of praying for a miracle that Republicans turn out and Democrats don't.

It's just a matter of perspective I guess. I'm not convinced this particular confirmation fight is going to be the big loser for Senate Democrats that is semi-common knowledge right now. I've always been really skeptical of the argument that any fight over the courts inherently favors conservatives (polling right now seems to suggest Democrats care more than Republicans), mostly because conservative voters who even know what the Supreme Court is and/or can even name more than one justice are already staunch Republicans that vote like clockwork. But this time is different, mostly because Kavanaugh is not very popular and accusations of sexual assault do give Democrats some cover among voters the few voters that may care about this and aren't dyed-in-the-wool Republicans. Perhaps it wouldn't have mattered as much in another time, but this particular era is marked by a backlash to sexual abuse and does appear to be having noticeable effects on elections and the candidates that run. Of course, I get that some people think Republicans just don't care about rape or sexual assault because of the magical R, and to a large extent that is probably true, but it doesn't mean they all do. Even a small ~15% sliver is a huge deal in most states.

Gardner can't run a base-only strategy in 2020, so I think once Democrats remind the right people of his vote in this case, it'll peel enough some voters away. It's certainly a potential liability. Voters aren't necessarily indifferent to this stuff. It's just when your goal is convince partisan voters to change their minds that it becomes a problem.

Overall I agree with you, but remember it's not like the Senate map is neutral this time. It's stacked in deep red states. Even if Dems do have an advantage on the issue, is it going to actually translate into helping them in a state like North Dakota, Tennessee, or West Virginia? I highly doubt it. If Republicans found an issue that they had the upper hand on nationwide, it probably wouldn't help them much to use it if they were trying to win a Senate race in California or Vermont, and could even backfire on them.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Virginia on October 01, 2018, 08:19:47 pm
^^ All of this goes to show that Democrats need to make DC and PR into states ASAP. Their Senate majority hopes resting completely on Republican-leaning states is a potential liability when it comes to the Supreme Court, and Democrats need to be able to fight for a left-leaning majority on the court without constantly hurting their electoral prospects (allegedly :x)

Not to mention making them into states is just the right thing to do, but still.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Fremont Speaker Roblox on October 01, 2018, 08:22:54 pm
Just because the polls underestimated Heitkamp in 2012 doesnít mean they will underestimate her again this year. And the difference between 2012 and 2018 is that there were actually polls showing Heitkamp up in 2012. There hasnít been one this year since February (and that was from Gravis and had 17% undecideds), and apparently private polling has been pretty ugly for Democrats here. The ND GOP is also much more competent than MO GOP/MT GOP/etc., and Cramer isnít as "weak" as this forum is making him out to be.

I guess Cramer must be running a very #populist campaign compared to those other candidates!

But yeah, Heitkamp is in bad shape, polling in the low 40's. Another thing is that Cramer has been a statewide elected official since 2012, as their only house rep, resulting in him getting more exposure than say, the Montana state auditor or something.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Skye on October 01, 2018, 08:23:13 pm

I mean, it's not an unreasonable statement to get behind.

I don't really know anything about this pollster, so I wouldn't put too much thought into it. And the margin, I don't buy.

That said, the Dems should be scared about this seat, since it's the only one where there hasn't been any good news for them lately. If Heitkamp wins, it's probably going to be because of a blue wave. And that may not even save her.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on October 01, 2018, 08:25:57 pm
This doesn't look right and ND is notoriously hard to poll, but we'll see.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: TML on October 01, 2018, 09:13:19 pm
This poll did make 538 change this race from Tilt D to Tilt R in their classic model.

However, I still want to see more polling within the next month before I make any definitive judgment as to who is on track to win.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Ses on October 01, 2018, 10:19:30 pm


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: MycroftCZ on October 01, 2018, 10:22:40 pm
()

Just a friendly reminder :)


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: RoboWop on October 01, 2018, 10:29:29 pm

As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

What we've got to keep in mind is that the Kavanaugh hearings are entirely about the large contingent Senators running for 2020, none of whom give half a damn if Heidi Heitkamp (or Manchin or Donnelly) is re-elected. They would drown her in the Potomac if they thought it would win them Iowa.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 01, 2018, 10:46:32 pm

As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

What we've got to keep in mind is that the Kavanaugh hearings are entirely about the large contingent Senators running for 2020, none of whom give half a damn if Heidi Heitkamp (or Manchin or Donnelly) is re-elected. They would drown her in the Potomac if they thought it would win them Iowa.

That's very true...sigh. Just like the stupid government shutdown stunt from a while back. Luckily that was so long ago everyone forgot and no longer cares about it. But now we're getting close to the point in the cycle where voters actually start remembering recent events while voting, so it's getting dicey.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Old School Republican on October 01, 2018, 11:04:03 pm
Quote
In another question that VNL asked, 60% of the likely voters in North Dakota support the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. 27% were opposed.

But I thought the Kavanaugh controversy/Cramer's "gaffe" were going to spell doom for him? Cramer +10 is definitely hard to believe (especially if Tester is ahead by 4), but anyone who believes Cramer is the next Akin doesnít know what theyíre talking about.

Edit: Oh, this was taken before Cramer's comments. Still, not a good poll for her by any means.

ND is pretty solidly more to the right than Montana.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Old School Republican on October 01, 2018, 11:09:39 pm

As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

What we've got to keep in mind is that the Kavanaugh hearings are entirely about the large contingent Senators running for 2020, none of whom give half a damn if Heidi Heitkamp (or Manchin or Donnelly) is re-elected. They would drown her in the Potomac if they thought it would win them Iowa.

That's very true...sigh. Just like the stupid government shutdown stunt from a while back. Luckily that was so long ago everyone forgot and no longer cares about it. But now we're getting close to the point in the cycle where voters actually start remembering recent events while voting, so it's getting dicey.

The Government shutdown didnt even hurt the GOP in polling even then and I believe the Dems generic ballot lead started dropping around that time till around July when it stopped dropping . Then in August it started to rise again


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 01, 2018, 11:11:16 pm
ND is pretty solidly more to the right than Montana.

Heitkamp isnít going to do 15-17 points worse than Tester, lol. Most likely this poll is inflating Cramer's lead. Cramer +4/5 and Tester +3/4 sounds more believable.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Dr. RI on October 01, 2018, 11:29:38 pm
ND is pretty solidly more to the right than Montana.

Heitkamp isnít going to do 15-17 points worse than Tester, lol. Most likely this poll is inflating Cramer's lead. Cramer +4/5 and Tester +3/4 sounds more believable.

Probably, but MT was 16 points to the left of ND in 2016.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: L.D. Smith on October 01, 2018, 11:37:08 pm
Just what were Feingold and Bayh's numbers again at this point back in 2016?


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Old School Republican on October 01, 2018, 11:41:11 pm
Just what were Feingold and Bayh's numbers again at this point back in 2016?

Both those states were far more Republican than ND is Democratic


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: AtorBoltox on October 02, 2018, 01:03:57 am
J U N K


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Sir Mohamed on October 02, 2018, 01:23:32 am
Probably an oulier, but Tilt R at least.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Skunk on October 02, 2018, 01:46:57 am
The ND GOP is also much more competent than MO GOP/MT GOP/etc., and Cramer isnít as "weak" as this forum is making him out to be.

Uh...

If you think Berg had trouble winning over female voters, just wait until Cramer gets the nomination. Triage this race.
It's clear that the ND GOP doesn't have a John Thune capable of beating Heitkamp.
It will definitely be interesting to see if Heitkamp actually wins more counties than her Republican opponent this year. She could be the only red state Democrat to do so, although Manchin almost certainly will as well if he wins his race.
The fact that Cramer (whoís probably going to lose the female vote by 20+ points) entering actually helps the Republicans in this race tells you all you need to know about its competitiveness. There is literally no evidence or sign that this race is Tilt R, unless youíre just looking at the 2016 results and assuming that they are a good indicator of whatís going to happen in ND this year, which would be a ridiculous thing to do.
Cramer entering probably moves it from Likely/Safe D to Lean/Likely D, but Heitkamp still has a significant advantage in this race. Cramer is probably the Republican candidate most likely to implode Akin-style IMO.
10%-20%. Iím not buying that Heitkamp is as vulnerable as people are making her out to be, and my boldô prediction is that sheíll stun the pundits and Atlas and do better than Nelson, Manchin and even Tester.
The ND GOP bench simply isnít as strong as you would expect, and itís showing in this race. It also doesnít help that the party isnít really used to dealing with competitive races, given that most elections in ND arenít really all that competitive. I donít think theyíre well-prepared for a campaign against an incumbent as ridiculously strong as Heitkamp.

There's plenty more but I'm sure you get the point.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Use Your Illusion on October 02, 2018, 08:03:10 am
Heidi is in trouble


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on October 02, 2018, 08:22:55 am
It could be that this poll was skewed to scare her into voting to confirm Kavanaugh. However, if sheís going to lose anyway she might as well go down in a blaze of glory


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: ❤️❤️❤️ on October 02, 2018, 08:31:18 am


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on October 02, 2018, 08:38:36 am
Itís amazing how much we are going nuts over this poll that doesnít have a memo, any crosstabs, or even dates! All we know is that this poll was conducted in September, but that could be up to four weeks old!


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Zaybay on October 02, 2018, 08:40:31 am
Itís amazing how much we are going nuts over this poll that doesnít have a memo, any crosstabs, or even dates! All we know is that this poll was conducted in September, but that could be up to four weeks old!

.....are you serious? The poll doesnt even have the dates it was conducted?!

Throw this one in the trash!


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: cinyc on October 02, 2018, 08:48:14 am
Hot Take: This is actually a Heitkamp internal she released so she'd have another newspaper to hold when she wins on election night.

No. The poll is not an internal. It was done by Strategic Research Associates for the NBC TV Stations in Western North Dakota.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Dr. RI on October 02, 2018, 09:01:30 am
Itís amazing how much we are going nuts over this poll that doesnít have a memo, any crosstabs, or even dates! All we know is that this poll was conducted in September, but that could be up to four weeks old!

This happens sometimes for TV station-commissioned polls.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: cinyc on October 02, 2018, 09:10:59 am
Itís amazing how much we are going nuts over this poll that doesnít have a memo, any crosstabs, or even dates! All we know is that this poll was conducted in September, but that could be up to four weeks old!

This happens sometimes for TV station-commissioned polls.

Often times because they drip out the results for different races over days. There are other ND races this cycle. I wouldn't be surprised to see House and Governor results over the next few days, followed by more info on the poll.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: cinyc on October 02, 2018, 09:41:12 am
Here's the poll memo:

http://media.graytvinc.com/documents/GRAY_ND_September_Survey.pdf

It says that 650 likely voters were polled between September 17-27, 2018.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Tender Branson on October 02, 2018, 12:50:12 pm
Interesting ...

Strategic Research Associates from Austin, TX seems to be a fairly new pollster.

An untested one. Which doesn't mean they are bad.

They also show Manchin +8 in WV in their new poll.

Heidi seems to be in some trouble, but I wouldn't count her out yet (see 2012).


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: KingSweden on October 02, 2018, 02:20:50 pm

As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

What we've got to keep in mind is that the Kavanaugh hearings are entirely about the large contingent Senators running for 2020, none of whom give half a damn if Heidi Heitkamp (or Manchin or Donnelly) is re-elected. They would drown her in the Potomac if they thought it would win them Iowa.

That's very true...sigh. Just like the stupid government shutdown stunt from a while back. Luckily that was so long ago everyone forgot and no longer cares about it. But now we're getting close to the point in the cycle where voters actually start remembering recent events while voting, so it's getting dicey.

The Government shutdown didnt even hurt the GOP in polling even then and I believe the Dems generic ballot lead started dropping around that time till around July when it stopped dropping . Then in August it started to rise again

I donít think the shutdown is correlated at all with the spring GCB decline


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: 2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable on October 02, 2018, 03:44:43 pm
The minority numbers are clearly skewed. There is no way that Black voters are tied, or that Hispanic or "Other" voters are favorable to Cramer.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: 2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable on October 02, 2018, 03:48:49 pm
All the crosstabs seem to be off, honestly.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Landslide Warren on October 02, 2018, 03:53:53 pm
Itís amazing how much we are going nuts over this poll that doesnít have a memo, any crosstabs, or even dates! All we know is that this poll was conducted in September, but that could be up to four weeks old!
Atlas loves to panic over any Republican-friendly poll. Remember, Heitkamp was triaged in 2012 and was behind by 10 in polls.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Brittain33 on October 02, 2018, 03:55:50 pm
The minority numbers are clearly skewed. There is no way that Black voters are tied, or that Hispanic or "Other" voters are favorable to Cramer.

African-Americans are 1.2% of ND's population. Does it matter if it's a wonky subsample?


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: KingSweden on October 02, 2018, 03:55:55 pm
The minority numbers are clearly skewed. There is no way that Black voters are tied, or that Hispanic or "Other" voters are favorable to Cramer.

There are black voters in ND?


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: ❤️❤️❤️ on October 02, 2018, 03:56:48 pm
The minority numbers are clearly skewed. There is no way that Black voters are tied, or that Hispanic or "Other" voters are favorable to Cramer.

African-Americans are 1.2% of ND's population. Does it matter if it's a wonky subsample?
It's still a bad sign for the polls methodology.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: cinyc on October 02, 2018, 03:58:25 pm
All the crosstabs seem to be off, honestly.

Crosstabs are always off, especially when the target group is <2% of the population, like here.

There aren't many black or Hispanic voters in North Dakota. It's overall population is 90% White as of the 2010 Census. The largest minority group is Native Americans at 5.4%. Hispanics are 2%. Blacks 1.2%. Asians 1%.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: cinyc on October 02, 2018, 04:06:07 pm
The minority numbers are clearly skewed. There is no way that Black voters are tied, or that Hispanic or "Other" voters are favorable to Cramer.

African-Americans are 1.2% of ND's population. Does it matter if it's a wonky subsample?
It's still a bad sign for the polls methodology.

They polled 650 voters. If African-Americans make up 1.2% of the population and quotas were met (doubtful), that means you'd have a sample size of about 8. Care to guess what the MoE for a sample size of 8 is? +/-34%. In other words, meaningless.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Galletito on October 02, 2018, 08:17:57 pm
If opposing Kavanaugh means that Heitkamp loses, then welp... I'd rather have that then the Dems being okay with Kavanaugh and allowing him to skate by, considering he's probably a drunken rapist.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 03, 2018, 02:56:51 am
The minority numbers are clearly skewed. There is no way that Black voters are tied, or that Hispanic or "Other" voters are favorable to Cramer.

ND is like 90% white and 5% Native American. Those numbers are negligible.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 03, 2018, 02:59:41 am
If opposing Kavanaugh means that Heitkamp loses, then welp... I'd rather have that then the Dems being okay with Kavanaugh and allowing him to skate by, considering he's probably a drunken rapist.

Problem being he would be confirmed anyway, so you're basically throwing one or more Senators in the trash can for zero benefit.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Galletito on October 03, 2018, 09:05:37 pm
If opposing Kavanaugh means that Heitkamp loses, then welp... I'd rather have that then the Dems being okay with Kavanaugh and allowing him to skate by, considering he's probably a drunken rapist.

Problem being he would be confirmed anyway, so you're basically throwing one or more Senators in the trash can for zero benefit.

And what happens if Dems did just shrug it off and allow a handful of senators to vote to confirm him and (not """"snatch defeat from the jaws of victory"""" like you seem to be so convinced of) Heitkamp is still down 12? Then we basically caved and made people think we're a party okay with rapey judges. Still sounds like zero benefit.



Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: libertpaulian on October 03, 2018, 09:07:37 pm
If opposing Kavanaugh means that Heitkamp loses, then welp... I'd rather have that then the Dems being okay with Kavanaugh and allowing him to skate by, considering he's probably a drunken rapist.

Problem being he would be confirmed anyway, so you're basically throwing one or more Senators in the trash can for zero benefit.

And what happens if Dems did just shrug it off and allow a handful of senators to vote to confirm him and (not """"snatch defeat from the jaws of victory"""" like you seem to be so convinced of) Heitkamp is still down 12? Then we basically caved and made people think we're a party okay with rapey judges. Still sounds like zero benefit.


If the Dems have the upper hand on issues like healthcare, the environment (the red tide and algae in Florida is an example), and wage stagnation, then maybe the party base can take one hit for the team in order to sell the larger issues I mentioned to the public.


Title: Re: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
Post by: Galletito on October 03, 2018, 09:28:23 pm
If opposing Kavanaugh means that Heitkamp loses, then welp... I'd rather have that then the Dems being okay with Kavanaugh and allowing him to skate by, considering he's probably a drunken rapist.

Problem being he would be confirmed anyway, so you're basically throwing one or more Senators in the trash can for zero benefit.

And what happens if Dems did just shrug it off and allow a handful of senators to vote to confirm him and (not """"snatch defeat from the jaws of victory"""" like you seem to be so convinced of) Heitkamp is still down 12? Then we basically caved and made people think we're a party okay with rapey judges. Still sounds like zero benefit.


If the Dems have the upper hand on issues like healthcare, the environment (the red tide and algae in Florida is an example), and wage stagnation, then maybe the party base can take one hit for the team in order to sell the larger issues I mentioned to the public.


We won't have the upper-hand with an conservative supreme court. What you're saying doesn't make a lot of sense either. There seems to be a bridge between taking one for the team and selling the larger issues to the public that isn't there.

Also, if Kavanaugh is confirmed and RBG dies, that means we'll have a pretty terrible right-wing supreme court that can end all hopes of having the upper hand with healthcare, the environment, wage stagnation, and probably Roe v. Wade too. Wouldn't surprise me if they made changes to marriage equality too.