Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Predictor on October 03, 2018, 05:08:08 PM



Title: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Predictor on October 03, 2018, 05:08:08 PM
Blackburn - 48%
Bredesen - 43%

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tennessee-poll-document-10-3


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 03, 2018, 05:10:40 PM
Nice!


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on October 03, 2018, 05:12:10 PM
It was too good to last, all those Bredesen leads.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on October 03, 2018, 05:27:40 PM
Blackburn lead in the last fox poll and then the CNN Bredesen 5+ came out. So toss-up ——> toss-up


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: IceSpear on October 03, 2018, 05:31:11 PM
Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Predictor on October 03, 2018, 05:39:07 PM
Blackburn lead in the last fox poll and then the CNN Bredesen 5+ came out. So toss-up ——> toss-up

That CNN one came out around the same time as the last FOX poll in September. Blackburn's gone up by two points since then.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 03, 2018, 05:40:07 PM
Yeah, Blackburn has this.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Virginiá on October 03, 2018, 05:46:20 PM
Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.

Once RCP adds this, their average will probably go up one or two points, and it's tied right now. It's hardly the end for Bredesen, although it could end up that way I suppose.

Current polling looks like a 50-50 senate, with Democrats winning 2 new seats but losing 1. That's not too bad, all things considered. Winning the Senate was always going to be a really tough goal.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: bilaps on October 03, 2018, 05:47:00 PM
Never really doubted that TN will go R this time. NV and AZ are only realistic pickups for Dems.

But with ND going from Heitkamp, it pretty much seals senate for Republicans


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Politician on October 03, 2018, 05:47:45 PM
Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.
Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 03, 2018, 05:47:51 PM
With Bredesen's Alan J.Dixon response to the Kavanaugh nomination and says he won't support Schumer as Leader may have cost him this race.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Skye on October 03, 2018, 05:48:46 PM
Can I move this to Lean R now?


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 03, 2018, 05:50:57 PM
This is about the same as their last poll a month ago.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Politician on October 03, 2018, 05:52:03 PM
This is about the same as their last poll a month ago.
...and the Atlas panic continues. Every time Bredesen isn't ahead this becomes Safe R, and when he's ahead, it's a tossup.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: IceSpear on October 03, 2018, 05:52:28 PM
Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.
Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?

Yes...and it was accurate.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Politician on October 03, 2018, 05:53:33 PM
Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.
Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?

Yes...and it was accurate.
Until the next Bredesen +2 poll came out.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: wbrocks67 on October 03, 2018, 06:19:05 PM
I'm not sure how any rational person could say this is anything but a tossup. We literally just got a CNN poll last week with Bredesen +5, and a Marist before that at Bredesen +2. And Vox Populi.

If I'm remembering correctly, Fox News is the only high quality pollster to have Blackburn up.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 03, 2018, 06:23:24 PM
This is about the same as their last poll a month ago.
...and the Atlas panic continues. Every time Bredesen isn't ahead this becomes Safe R, and when he's ahead, it's a tossup.

Bredesen said that he would not support Schumer as Leader


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Virginiá on October 03, 2018, 06:25:12 PM
I'm not sure how any rational person could say this is anything but a tossup. We literally just got a CNN poll last week with Bredesen +5, and a Marist before that at Bredesen +2. And Vox Populi.

If I'm remembering correctly, Fox News is the only high quality pollster to have Blackburn up.

The gist is that some users consider Tennessee to be so Republican-leaning that anything short of consistent, mid-high single digit (or better) leads for Bredesen in every poll, means Blackburn will win just by nature of TN reverting to its natural hyper-Republican state.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Ebsy on October 03, 2018, 06:46:09 PM
If you really believe Trump is at 60% approval among Tennessee voters...


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: IceSpear on October 03, 2018, 06:52:09 PM
If you really believe Trump is at 60% approval among Tennessee voters...

Do you believe any poll that is positive for Republicans? Just curious.

Trump got 46% of the vote overall and 61% in Tennessee in 2016. He's now sitting at 44% approval nationally. So no, that number is not at all unreasonable.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Ebsy on October 03, 2018, 06:57:57 PM
If you really believe Trump is at 60% approval among Tennessee voters...

Do you believe any poll that is positive for Republicans? Just curious.

Trump got 46% of the vote overall and 61% in Tennessee in 2016. He's now sitting at 44% approval nationally. So no, that number is not at all unreasonable.
Trump's favorability rating wasn't even close 60% in Tennessee on election day, so, no, the number is not reasonable.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: IceSpear on October 03, 2018, 07:04:10 PM
If you really believe Trump is at 60% approval among Tennessee voters...

Do you believe any poll that is positive for Republicans? Just curious.

Trump got 46% of the vote overall and 61% in Tennessee in 2016. He's now sitting at 44% approval nationally. So no, that number is not at all unreasonable.
Trump's favorability rating wasn't even close 60% in Tennessee on election day, so, no, the number is not reasonable.

So then where is his current 44% approval rating coming from? A surge in California and going up to 100% approval in Oklahoma?


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Politician on October 03, 2018, 07:09:53 PM
If you really believe Trump is at 60% approval among Tennessee voters...

Do you believe any poll that is positive for Republicans? Just curious.

Trump got 46% of the vote overall and 61% in Tennessee in 2016. He's now sitting at 44% approval nationally. So no, that number is not at all unreasonable.
Trump's favorability rating wasn't even close 60% in Tennessee on election day, so, no, the number is not reasonable.

So then where is his current 44% approval rating coming from? A surge in California and going up to 100% approval in Oklahoma?
Two polls have come out posting his approval at 37 and 41. His approval is TN is probably more like 55.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on October 03, 2018, 07:10:28 PM
I wasn't getting my hopes up, but still: BOO!


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: IceSpear on October 03, 2018, 07:13:06 PM
If you really believe Trump is at 60% approval among Tennessee voters...

Do you believe any poll that is positive for Republicans? Just curious.

Trump got 46% of the vote overall and 61% in Tennessee in 2016. He's now sitting at 44% approval nationally. So no, that number is not at all unreasonable.
Trump's favorability rating wasn't even close 60% in Tennessee on election day, so, no, the number is not reasonable.

So then where is his current 44% approval rating coming from? A surge in California and going up to 100% approval in Oklahoma?
Two polls have come out posting his approval at 37 and 41. His approval is TN is probably more like 55.

No, sorry. Reality is not a choose your own adventure game. And that goes for Dem hacks as well as Trumpists.

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Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Xing on October 03, 2018, 07:14:57 PM
Won't say that this is Safe R, but it's definitely not looking good for Bredesen.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on October 03, 2018, 08:07:48 PM
This is a tossup and nothing else. Plain and simple. It is not likely R and has never been! End of story!


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on October 03, 2018, 08:10:23 PM
Won't say that this is Safe R, but it's definitely not looking good for Bredesen.
So when one poll showed him ahead, what was this race, safe D?


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 03, 2018, 08:12:43 PM
TN flipped on Harold Ford at last minute as well


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: TarHeelDem on October 03, 2018, 08:23:43 PM
If another quality pollster shows Blackburn ahead, I'll start to worry, but for now this remains a Toss-Up.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on October 03, 2018, 08:28:31 PM
If another quality pollster shows Blackburn ahead, I'll start to worry, but for now this remains a Toss-Up.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Pericles on October 03, 2018, 09:04:34 PM
2020 likely voters are likely different from 2018 likely voters, so with the 2018 electorate-given Democratic enthusiasm-Trump's approval is probably around 40-42% nationwide.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: NOVA Green on October 03, 2018, 09:12:51 PM
Chill Pill everyone (Mainly Dem avatar's wigging)...

This isn't over at all yet....

Give me a few more decent polls that show similar results, then we'll start talking.

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Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: History505 on October 03, 2018, 09:55:11 PM
Lol with the margin that close, this is still a toss-up.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: MycroftCZ on October 03, 2018, 11:07:27 PM
Every time a poll shows Blackburn up by anything, Atlas freaks out and puts this race into Lean R. Polling consistently shows Bredesen up or down by a small margin. This race is a Tossup, with an edge to Bredesen.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: MillennialModerate on October 04, 2018, 03:34:06 AM
This race is the biggest fools gold in the nation for either side.

IMO Texas is more likely to go Blue than Tennessee.

And honestly this is what’s wrong with American politics.

Watch the debate between Blackburn and Bredesen and there is no way in hell (if you’re fair minded and reasonable) you can say he isn’t far and away the better candidate. She literally recites hit job one liners about Chuck Schumer ...’over and over. While Phil talks about legitimate issues.

If he were the Republican and she was the Democrat I would say the same thing. He is clearly the better choice but it doesn’t matter to people cause they blindly pull the lever for Team R.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 04, 2018, 04:03:53 AM
Every time a poll shows Blackburn up by anything, Atlas freaks out and puts this race into Lean R. Polling consistently shows Bredesen up or down by a small margin. This race is a Tossup, with an edge to Bredesen.

This race is not a tossup.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Technocracy Timmy on October 04, 2018, 04:09:22 AM
After witnessing white evangelicals vote in droves for Donald Trump and Roy Moore, I fully expect them to do so here too. This state (according to Pew research) has more white evangelicals than Alabama along with having very similar church attendance rates. It also has far less black voters to vote Democrat compared to Alabama. This isn’t 2006; white evangelicals are a marching force for any Republican now.

I’m not seeing a victory here for Bredesen.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: OneJ on October 04, 2018, 01:14:39 PM
Every time a poll shows Blackburn up by anything, Atlas freaks out and puts this race into Lean R. Polling consistently shows Bredesen up or down by a small margin. This race is a Tossup, with an edge to Bredesen.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: IceSpear on January 13, 2019, 07:31:22 PM
Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.
Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?

Whoops.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: lfromnj on January 13, 2019, 07:33:17 PM
Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.
Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?

Whoops.

TBF you probably shouldn't have called majority leader turtle because Texas was still an option for the Dems to win at that point.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Pericles on January 14, 2019, 03:44:38 AM
Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.
Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?

Whoops.

TBF you probably shouldn't have called majority leader turtle because Texas was still an option for the Dems to win at that point.

If Republicans lost Texas and Florida, they would have still gotten 51 seats, and 2 more Democratic wins would have been needed in Indiana and Missouri, races they lost by nearly 6%(keeping in mind 2018 was already a pretty strongly Democratic year nationally), and by October the fundamentals were set that McCaskill or Donnelly weren't going to massively outrun the national environment and there wouldn't be a Democratic megatsunami. This is all with the benefit of hindsight ofc and the polls showed much closer races in those states which would make a 53-47 prediction seem too optimistic for the GOP, but it wasn't unreasonable to predict a GOP Senate or a Bredesen defeat given even then the odds looked dire for the Democrats.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: lfromnj on January 14, 2019, 10:00:57 AM
Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.
Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?

Whoops.

TBF you probably shouldn't have called majority leader turtle because Texas was still an option for the Dems to win at that point.

If Republicans lost Texas and Florida, they would have still gotten 51 seats, and 2 more Democratic wins would have been needed in Indiana and Missouri, races they lost by nearly 6%(keeping in mind 2018 was already a pretty strongly Democratic year nationally), and by October the fundamentals were set that McCaskill or Donnelly weren't going to massively outrun the national environment and there wouldn't be a Democratic megatsunami. This is all with the benefit of hindsight ofc and the polls showed much closer races in those states which would make a 53-47 prediction seem too optimistic for the GOP, but it wasn't unreasonable to predict a GOP Senate or a Bredesen defeat given even then the odds looked dire for the Democrats.

yeah but Icespear never called MO and IN safe R. Infact it was assumed at that time IN and MO were tossups while ND TX and TN were the lean Rs although in reality only TX was Lean R.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: ElectionsGuy on January 14, 2019, 03:53:14 PM
This is a tossup and nothing else. Plain and simple. It is not likely R and has never been! End of story!

lol. This is a goldmine. I'm sure if Menendez was up five in New Jersey he'd call it toss-up... right?!?


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on January 14, 2019, 04:00:24 PM
TN is my least favorite state in the country. It electing Blackburn by double digits only reinforces my feelings.


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on January 15, 2019, 10:51:15 PM
This is a tossup and nothing else. Plain and simple. It is not likely R and has never been! End of story!

lol. This is a goldmine. I'm sure if Menendez was up five in New Jersey he'd call it toss-up... right?!?

LOLOLOL

I gave up on Bredesen a couple weeks later


Title: Re: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on January 21, 2019, 04:30:36 PM
     Tennessee didn't come through for the Dems in 2006 either. The result of this race was never seriously in question if one looked at the context of the election and didn't just take the polls at face value.