Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Predictor on October 03, 2018, 05:10:47 PM



Title: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: Predictor on October 03, 2018, 05:10:47 PM
Donnelly - 43%
Braun - 41%

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/indiana-poll-document-10-3


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: Horus on October 03, 2018, 05:12:46 PM
Looks about right.


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: IceSpear on October 03, 2018, 05:29:45 PM
Not bad considering the rest of these polls. Maybe Dems can still salvage a 50-50 split if they're lucky. Nah, they'll probably keep shooting themselves in the foot with a shotgun right up until election day.


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 03, 2018, 05:31:56 PM
tilt r


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: Young Conservative on October 03, 2018, 05:34:26 PM
The libertarian percentage is unrealistic. At least half of those voters will come home to Braun.


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: IceSpear on October 03, 2018, 05:36:23 PM
The libertarian percentage is unrealistic. At least half of those voters will come home to Braun.

Libertarians always get a relatively high percentage of the vote in Indiana actually. They got 5-6% of the vote in 2010, 2012, and 2016.


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: new_patomic on October 03, 2018, 05:45:36 PM
43 to 41 in late September/early October seems weird to me.

Donnelly being at 43 is either devastating, or him being up 2 is fantastic, not sure.


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: Skye on October 03, 2018, 05:48:11 PM
Libertarian Lucy Brenton is polling at 6%.

I'd be nervous if I were Donelly, constantly polling in the 40's in IN, but he has been getting a few leads and the last Fox poll actually had Braun leading, so he could be worse. It's still a Tossup.


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: Predictor on October 03, 2018, 06:24:31 PM
Important point from this poll is that slightly over 30% of voters say they'd be less likely to support him if he votes no on Kavanaugh.


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: ON Progressive on October 03, 2018, 06:25:47 PM
Important point from this poll is that slightly over 30% of voters say they'd be less likely to support him if he votes no on Kavanaugh.

Again, I might ask, how many of those 30% aren't just loyal Republicans who are just saying that because they like Kavanuagh?


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 03, 2018, 06:27:33 PM
Important point from this poll is that slightly over 30% of voters say they'd be less likely to support him if he votes no on Kavanaugh.

More/less likely polls are meaningless.


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on October 03, 2018, 07:05:55 PM
This will go down to the wire. Tossup. Honestly, I'll take it. I used to think that Donnelly was the most endangered Democratic incumbent, now that looks like it will be Menendez Heitkamp.


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: Xing on October 03, 2018, 07:08:14 PM
This one's going to be close, but Donnelly perhaps has a very slight edge.


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: libertpaulian on October 03, 2018, 07:10:26 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Indiana,_2012#Polling_2

Donnelly didn't start taking the lead until late October, so for him to have led in most of these post-Labor Day polls is good news for him.

Tossup, of course.


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on October 03, 2018, 08:29:35 PM
THANK GOD! A good poll!


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on October 03, 2018, 08:35:10 PM
Perhaps ND is an outlier and Heitkamp is 2018s Tom Corbett?


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: libertpaulian on October 03, 2018, 09:09:42 PM
Perhaps ND is an outlier and Heitkamp is 2018s Tom Corbett?
Uh, Tom Corbett LOST.


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on October 03, 2018, 09:12:17 PM
That's my point. Heidi Heitkamp appears headed to a double digit loss even though it appears like it will be a good year for democrats and it appears she's the only one that will lose.


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: Pericles on October 03, 2018, 09:14:41 PM
Too many undecideds, but the margin seems plausible enough.


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: MycroftCZ on October 03, 2018, 11:08:41 PM
I'm happily surprised that Donnelly has been able to hold on here... seems like all those RV ads really helped him.


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: Yank2133 on October 03, 2018, 11:47:09 PM
https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1047641934737690624


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: Hollywood on October 04, 2018, 12:03:27 AM
Republicans will win this race.  Democrats botched it.  You guys had it.  The myriad of ways Democrats lose elections never surprises me. 


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: Virginiá on October 04, 2018, 12:08:51 AM
Republicans will win this race.  Democrats botched it.  You guys had it.  The myriad of ways Democrats lose elections never surprises me. 

lol you are just moving from thread to thread and saying "Republicans will win" because [reasons]

You should just create a thread and list all your predictions. You would save time.


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: Technocracy Timmy on October 04, 2018, 02:09:04 AM
Republicans will win this race.  Democrats botched it.  You guys had it.  The myriad of ways Democrats lose elections never surprises me.  

lol you are just moving from thread to thread and saying "Republicans will win" because [reasons]

You should just create a thread and list all your predictions. You would save time.

Yes.  That is basic writing.  I understand Democrats are unable to comprehend reasoning and rational prose.  Here's how you write.  I believe... (blank), because of... (reasons) including 1), 2), 3) and 4).  Here's where the credibility part comes.  My beliefs are supported by "evidence" that corroborate my claims and tie-in with the things I'm saying.  Here are some examples.  

Now you can go out and be successful.  Maybe you'll achieve the title of "mediocre white man".  You did say those words, right?  "Mediocre white man"?  

Oh you’re gonna be fun on here aren’t you ;)


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 04, 2018, 05:31:46 AM
These Fox polls seem too optimistic for Republicans, so I wouldn't be surprised if Donnelly is actually ahead by 4-5 points.


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on October 04, 2018, 09:16:31 AM
These Fox polls seem too optimistic for Republicans, so I wouldn't be surprised if Donnelly is actually ahead by 4-5 points.


Title: Re: IN- Donnelly +2 (Fox)
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 04, 2018, 10:26:22 AM
This is a very winnable race for Republicans, especially with that many undecideds.