Talk Elections

McSally (R) - 52
Sinema (D) - 49

https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/AZ-Statewide-Survey-Topline-Oct-2018.pdf

They don't even have 0% undecideds, but -1% undecideds. I think this is the new "decimals."

Forgive me if I don't believe a poll that totals more than 100%.

Same pollster that had Menendez only up 4, so color me skeptical.

Umm that adds up to 101%

These people make Gravis look like the gold standard.

Vox Populi isn’t a very good pollster, to say the least.

Im not sure how they got Menendez up by only 4 when pushing undecideds. So I am also skeptical.

lol 101%

The extra 1% is from the graveyard.

Their gubernatorial result is in line with most others at least. We can infer at this point that there are going to be tons of Sinema-Ducey voters

I don't see how people can justify voting for a generic Republican simultaneously with a former Ralph Nader activist, but then again, the average American voter is an enigma.

I read the cross tabs and it is actually 51-49 McSally. I think the OP just made an error adding the leaners to McSally’s total.

Senigma has put up a pretty good fake moderate smoke screen during her congressional tenure. That's a large part of why she's doing so well with moderate voters; if she ran as an unapologetic progressive, she'd probably be doing worse.

hot take polls with no undecideds are just as bad or even worse than those with a lot of undecideds

Inclined to agree

And by the way, how are we even supposed to use this poll?

Here we go again. The polls showing strong support for GOP, eventhough the Kavanaugh allegations are coming up. Same as what happened in 2014

The first poll to account for the hundreds of thousands of votes to be cast by "Shladimir Butin" for Republicans :P

Fun fact! There's actually a mathematical principle that explains why the numbers add up to 101 here. It's a bit of an advanced concept so it might be difficult for some of you to understand but click here to read the wiki article on this complex and fascinating phenomenon. Cool stuff, right? (https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rounding)

if anyone had actually bothered to click the link in the OP and read the poll then you would quickly see the actual poll result is as follows:

45% McSally
42% Sinema
13% undecided

however the poll also pushed undecided voters to pick which of the two candidates they're leaning towards, forcing a choice between one or the other. Slightly more undecided voters lean towards Sinema rather than McSally so the 13 points of "undecideds" splits with 7 points for Sinema and 6 for McSally. Add those numbers together, apply that advanced math technique I linked above, and you get the 52% to 49% split. It's somewhat uncommon to see a poll force all undecided voters to pick a side like this but it's not exactly crazy or unheard of, either.

Like, there are several huge problems with this poll's methodology but the one thing everyone ITT is hung up on isn't really one of them. y'all need to actually read links before commenting :P

It should be 51%, because safe (45%) plus leaners (6%) are 51%. It's wrongly added.

But this is a toss-up regardless, Sinema is favored though. She's more likely to win than Jacky Rosen.

Probably not the best poll, but there does seem to be a GOP bump nationwide occurring due to the Kavanaugh hearings.

Rounded up 51.6/48.6 or something like that.

Cute

No.

Democrat zombies versus Russian bots! Discuss with maps.

This goes from Lean D to tossup

Next poll

McSally - 60%

Sinema - 55%

AZ has disappointed Dems so many times

Lmao

Who isn’t?

That's why I'm tempering my expectations and keeping it at a tossup, at best. This definitely looks better than the Gubernatorial election though.

Plus 20% undecided.

and then

McSally - 324%

Sinema - 101%

someone on atlas: this race is lean R now guyz 1!!1!

Were the undead or unborn polled?

TBH, this race has always been a toss up despite Sinema leading a few points in recent polls.