Talk Elections

Who?

Tossup.

FSC is a private college way outside of Tampa. They're not a very big school so I'm kind of shocked they'd have the resources to fund a polling center. I think this might be their first poll since I cant find anything else from them.

Likely D, obv

The poll is here:

https://cloudup.com/iT5VkRnghBG

So the gap is more like 1.5 points and the GCB is D+<1... ok.

Pure toss-up.

Still a tossup, I see.

538 moved it to toss up today.

Hasn't it always been a toss-up on 538?

The winning chance dropped from 61% to 60%, so not a big deal. These ratings change all day. I always had this as a toss-up with Nelson being the slight favorite due to the national environment.

The model probably showed the race as light blue after the Nelson +4 from PPP. But since the last 2 polls(both from iffy college pollsters) have shown a closer race, its back to white.

No!  Yesterday they recorded it as lean D

This poll gave respondents the option to choose another candidate. 10% of black voters did so. That bodes well for Nelson as there aren't any other candidates on the ballot (except the option to Write-In).

Nelson winning Hispanics 55-21 (13% pick the stupidly included "Other Candidate")

Looks like this poll sampled too many white men. Then again, this is a college poll in FL so I have no expectations of remotely good quality.

I'd like to know more about this pollster, but looks like this race is still a Toss-Up.

Astronut Astronot :'(

Don't underestimate Rick Scott

And there's no chance that a good portion of that 10% stays home?

If they're coming out for Gillum, chances are they'll vote for Nelson.

I wonder what an impact Hurricane "Michael" will have on this Senate Race. Usually with this kind of Devastation the Governor gets a bump in his Approvals if he responds well to it and Scott has.

Is this pollster worth anything?

That depends on how big the hurricane is and how much damage it did, and the particulars of the Governor's media presence and what they did/didn't do.

Most of Florida wasn't affected too much by this. Over in my area (Treasure Coast), it wasn't any different than any number of storms we've had all year. So, if I had to guess, it's not really going to help or hurt Scott. At least outside of the areas of the panhandle that got hit hard, and most of that area is already heavily Republican.

The Problem is: Scott needs those Voters in the Pandandle. They need to come out in the same way they supported Trump 2016.

Yea, he does need them. It's hard to see how even a fantastic response to this would super charge turnout though. If anything, it would hurt turnout. And Republicans have maxed out a lot of those areas in recent years, so good marks on the hurricane response won't do too much with the voters that do turn out.

This is all probably a wash. Maybe if the response is seen as exceptional, it could net benefit Gillum because he was on the ground and benefited from the subsequent reduced turnout.

I think Scott still has a chance winning that Race. Q-Pac's Poll having Nelson up 8 or 9 was complete crap.

I think there are some ways that Michael helps Scott:

1. Swing voters/people planning on staying home show up to vote for Scott as a sign of gratitude.
2. Gillum bungles the local response hurting him in the governors race and dragging down Nelson with him.
3. Gillum does a good job but the media successfully sells an anti-Gillum narrative.
4. Damage in Tallahassee and Gadsden County causes turnout there to drop.

This might be true in an alternate universe, but currently, Gillum has been praised for his work, and DeSantis is being attacked for campaigning during the hurricane. Meanwhile, Scott is being attacked by veteran groups and even the Trump admin. on his handling of the situation.

Tallahassee and most of Gadsden had a loss of power, further west you have loss of homes.  Power will be running in Tallahassee and Gadsden by the end of this week.  Further west, replacement housing will not be available for some time.

I can't see a scenario where democrats lose FL while simultaneously winning MT and WV. It just doesn't seem logical. If democrats lose this, they probably are having a very bad night, at least in the senate.

Florida is independent of those two states. You basically have the equivalent of two incumbents going at it, since it's the sitting governor challenging a sitting Senator. I could see Florida going Republican and the other two states remaining in D hands very easily.

With that said, I could also see the Dems keeping all three seats.

Why? MT and WV are still very Democratic-friendly down ballot, Tester and Manchin are far stronger incumbents than Nelson, and the GOP candidates in MT/WV are not only getting heavily outspent but also running incredibly poor campaigns.

Heck, WV elected a Democratic governor by 7 while voting for Trump by 42 points, and Morrisey is almost certainly less popular than Bill Cole was.