Talk Elections

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-races-nevada-are-dead-heat-n918251

Likely Voters
Heller (GOP): 46
Rosen (DEM): 44

UNBEATABLE TITAN BEATS WEAK CANDIDATE

Is that panic I sense??

Rosen sucks. But before we jump off a bridge it seems that undecideds are dem leaning

Trump approval 45-47 seems way too high

Poll seems dubious on that fact alone

Not to concern troll, but these are not numbers that signify a wave.

The crosstabs are pretty funky, including this bit:

But Heller leads by 26 points in Washoe County (Reno), 60 percent to 34 percent.

Small n I know, but still, hard to credit.

One thing we should all remember about Nevada is that they have the option to vote "None of the above." So unecideds may make less of a difference than in other races, and there is a higher chance than in other states that the winner will be <50%.

Ok, just like with Nelson and Scott, I have had dems edging this one out the whole time and still do, but it would not surprise me if Heller won.

I really don't see it, especially with pollsters bad history in Nevada.

Essentially, if you believe that Nevada will have an R+2 electorate in 2018, you should believe this poll.

This is good, because it ensures that in NV, once again for the 500th time now, Dems will out-perform the polls.

It is also good that the Siena poll is not changing the times of day that they call at all to catch unionized Casino workers that work night shift, and that will similarly help them under-poll Dems in NV.

THE TITAN CAN'T STOP WINNING

No way Heller is winning Washoe by 26.

How though? Hillary won Washoe county.

Eh. Finally Heller has a good poll.

Well, that is encouraging.

What Harry Reid doing this days? Got to get that machine rolling again.

I'm calling it now, we have yet another Nevada election that pollsters will bomb. You'd think they'd learn by now.

Heller is finished

In Nevada, Republican Joe Heck holds a seven-point advantage over Democratic opponent Catherine Cortez Masto among likely voters, 49 percent to 42 percent – up from Heck’s two-point lead last month. OCT 26 2016

 (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/polls-clinton-holds-9-point-lead-new-hampshire-tied-nevada-n673361)

Republicans hold a 2-point lead in congressional preference in Nevada, with 47 percent of likely voters preferring a GOP-controlled Congress, versus 45 percent who want the Democrats in charge 

Seems like another systemic error in Nevada polling. Not a chance Rs win the vote here and lose North Carolina by 5%

That's a pretty huge miss on the Senate race. More surprising for a A pollster like Marist.

Yeah, Marist (among others) does not have a good track record polling Nevada. I imagine the Upshot is suffering similar problems.

IceSpear told me Dean Heller was DOA and candidate quality doesn't matter, though.

I do still expect Rosen to win though, but it will be close.

NBC/MARIST POLLS are a big crap no matter if they have Dems or GOP ahead.

Tilt R

So Dunleavy being up 20 points doesn't matter because muh 2016, yet Nevada polls underestimating Democrats in nearly every race for the past decade is irrelevant. #analysis

Hey though, maybe this will finally be the year that Nevada polls are accurate. Just like the Republicans insisted 2010, 2012, and 2016 would be. I guess we'll see!

hmm….

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_berkley-1894.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_romney_vs_obama-1908.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton-5891.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heck_vs_cortez_masto-5982.html

…Noticing a pattern?

Agree...NBC is democratic poll too.

There's next to no chance that the democrats will win the senate. It would be as big of a shock as Trump winning in 2016 based on the current polls.

I noticed.

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lol how is NBC a "democratic poll"? Marist is not affiliated with either party.

It's a toss up, let's just agree it's a toss up.

The Reid and Angle numbers are hilarious.

Did this poll use Spanish interviews?

Pretty hard to believe Heller would be in the lead when he's only winning whites by 4. Even Obama lost them by 15 in 2012 (and Clinton by 19).

Heller could get 46%, I could see that.

So many Democrats on here try to be funny and trollish in every poll thread, no matter the results; it isn't funny and is just clutter the rest of us have to sift through.

The poll is encouraging and shows Heller isn't completely cooked - this is Nevada though so I won't feel confident about this race unless he's leading outside the MOE.

If this race is actually a toss up, then 2018 is going to be an ugly (or at least severely disappointing) year for the Dems. But it's not. Rosen is still ahead in the polling average, and well...Democrats don't do worse than the polling average in Nevada, unless you're a wax figure with a droopy face and no campaign named Bob Goodman.

We have a Sisolak candidate running for Gov, all but except 2 polls came out and he's be behind the whole race. I wouldn't check mark Heller as DOA, yet.

^This. If heller is winning on election night, then it is a terrible night for democrats, and the top is probably gaining at least 4 or 5 seats in the senate, if not more.

Trump approval in NV has been unusually high in other polls, too.

But, but... unbeatable titan Jacky Rosen!

Probably because Nevada is hard to poll.

Anyway, IceSpear is right (I know many on Atlas hate hearing this, but it's true), if Heller does actually win, it not only means that the blue wave is dead, it means Democrats are having a very bad night, and we're probably looking at R+5-6 in the Senate.

I can recall the poll that showed Sisolak up 10 points.  Right before Kavanaugh's confirmation

No! Democrats can make up for a loss in NV by winning TN! ;)

Heller up only 48-44 with whites, something simply not adding up. The Latino vote in NV is usually closer to D+50 than D+10

I mean, losing Nevada would be bad in and of itself, but this state has a tendency to buck national trends at the Senate level.

Is it me or have we been getting a ton of late polls? I posted that Beto-Cruz poll last week, but the results were from August!

The Trump approval being only -2, the same as his 2016 vote share is... something

"He's at 44% nationally, Dem hacks, so him being only -2 in NV is perfectly reasonable."

Likely D

You also said MD Gov was likely D

Junk poll of the year? Definitely close, at least.

That Tester +24 poll is junk poll of the year and absolutely nothing will top it.

I'm obviously not thrilled that this thing is even close and I think a better candidate would have solved this issue, hopefully we still eek this out like I suspect.

I would definitely still expect Rosen to pull it out considering those undecideds will break D at the end and given the history of Nevada polling.

If we're going by ultimate difference from result, the Newsom +4 poll might be worse.

Every poll with a GOP lean is wrong in this environment.  All of the Democrats will be re-elected and the GOP will lose Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas, and Mississippi.  It is in the stars.

Stop

This race is a statistical tie

I meant his prediction overall

These threads are becoming so predictable.

Atlas reaction is so funny.

Maybe I did ages ago, I honestly do t remember. My latest prediction was that it was a toss up

Actually, this one is definitely the worst:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303053.0

Who is the one who called me a joke for saying this race is Lean R?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=301205.msg6407307#msg6407307

You're still a joke dw

Unless you think Tester will win by more than 5, I’m pretty sure the MT poll will be less accurate.

Anyway, this is a bit hard to believe (so is Laxalt +1), but if that Upshot/Siena poll also shows Heller "ahead", I’ll probably move it from Likely D to Lean D.

I wish.

Who was the one who added this to the database? Can we please keep the titles to the normal format, none of the trolling is needed thx.

It was me. :) And there is no "normal format", so I assume you're referring to the <candidate> + <number> format that I use of my own accord 99.9% of the time.

Heller +2
Evers +10

Makes sense, Marist.

Why am I not surprised that the only state they give rosy numbers for the Republicans is Nevada? lol

Heller beat popular Rep. Shelley Berkley in 2012 despite Obama carrying the State. Unlike Joe Heck Heller knows how to do well in a tough Environment.

Berkeley was a rep., but she wasn’t popular.

Yes, the corrupt lady under ethics investigation was clearly a popular strong candidate. ::) Heller got less votes than Mitt Romney did.

What is worrying is that the Democrats tend to be overstated in polling for midterm elections.

Republicans in 2016: Heller won in 2012 even as Obama won, and Heck is a better candidate than Heller. Heck will win.

Republicans in 2018: Heck just barely lost in 2016 thanks to the Reid machine, and Heller is a better candidate than Heck. Heller will win.

Not in Nevada

I think there will be some voter who want Nevada as a small state to have a Democrat and Republican
Senator.  That factor ma help Hedi in Northwest Dakota.

Will that be enough?  Who knows.

There's obviously House effect built into these polls, due to Kavanaugh bump, but it's subsiding now. In the next week or so, polls will back even

I don't see any subsiding...certainly not in these Senate Races. Your Party is DONE in the Senate. You won't get it.

Trump is campaigning in Nevada next week as well as Arizona & Montana. Ask yourself a Question: Why would Trump campaign in those States if the Races weren't close.

All these Democratic Atlas Hacks told us for months NV & AZ are done for Republicans. That isn't the case at all.

More likely is that we have two entirely different Elections going on Nov. 6th: The Race for the House and the Race for the Senate.

This "Kavanaugh Bump Subsiding" is pretty much wishful thinking on the Democrats part.

I've seen the Trump Rallys over the past week. Thousands of People inside the Venue where he speaks and a good chunk outside watching on big screens and all what these Atlas D's telling us is that these people won't vote at all. Keep going with that craziness.

House effect and The Kavanaugh bump are different and separate factors.

Nevada is Safe D. There I said it. The polls in Nevada always overestimate republicans as IceSpear showed. Heller is a terrible candidate running in a state that voted for Hillary Clinton and he will not win the election. It will only be 5-6 point loss for Heller but he WILL lose. Why don't we poll competitive races like IN?

uhmmm

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/nv/nevada_senate_angle_vs_reid-1517.html

Even if Heller loses by 5-6 points, this race is and never will be considered "Safe" for either party.  If it were "safe," no money would be flooding into the state for campaign commercials.

Right now, it's a tossup and the most likely pickup for the Democrats in this cycle in the Senate as far as picking off a seat goes in a "blue wave" environment. That's pretty much it. You're drinking too much Kool Aid if you think otherwise.

Whoa, you're back!

Seriously? He's back?

Yup. Back and ready to be as right as I was in 2016.

Okay I shouldn't have said Safe D but the chances Heller wins are very low, like 10-15 %.

Don't underestimate him. He got elected in Nevada in 2012 despite the fact that Barack Obama won that state by 7 percentage points over Mitt Romney that same year. So he is able to win tough senate races in Nevada even if it is the only 2018 senate battleground state won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

He won against a very flawed democratic candidate who was under a criminal investigation and even with that, there was an option that said none of the above, which appears to be what democrats/left leaning independents selected who couldn't morally vote for a corrupt person like Berkley but they couldn't bring themselves to vote for Heller either. Had that option not been there, those dems would have reluctantly backed Berkley and he would have lost. And he got around the same percentage as Mitt Romney, the democrat just did worse then Obama. The whole narrative that he's some great candidate is overblown and misleading

No one said that he is some great Candidate BUT he is an Incumbent Senator and that matters.

Incumbency doesnt make a senator invincible. It can help, but only somewhat, and the effect of incumbency is highly based off of your personal popularity. This is why Baker is invincible, yet many D senators in 2010 and 2014 were not.

Either these polls are off or Ds are not really up more than 5 on the generic ballot. A Heller win and a D+11 night makes zero sense.

If it's Nevada and the Republicans are winning in a Democratic year, the polls are off.