Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on October 09, 2018, 11:19:31 pm



Title: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: Tender Branson on October 09, 2018, 11:19:31 pm
New Poll: Ohio Governor by Suffolk University on 2018-10-08 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2018/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3920181008063)

Summary: D: 46%, R: 40%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://eu.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/09/suffolk-university-poll-finds-support-issue-1/1578050002/)


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: Tender Branson on October 09, 2018, 11:22:41 pm
Those are some of the first polls conducted after Kavanaugh was sworn in as judge ...

Good news for the Dems.


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on October 09, 2018, 11:24:57 pm
This is a way too massive outlier


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: Bagel23 on October 09, 2018, 11:25:39 pm
Lean R.


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: IceSpear on October 09, 2018, 11:27:34 pm
This is pretty much the same result Suffolk showed in June. Either they're seeing something nobody else is, or they just really love Cordray.


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on October 09, 2018, 11:36:34 pm
Yeah, this looks Democratic friendly.


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: Bagel23 on October 09, 2018, 11:37:00 pm
Hold yo horsies!

"But the poll may have oversampled Democratic voters, who may be more likely to support Issue 1. If the voters surveyed had decided 2016 election, Ohio would have gone to Hillary Clinton by 6 points instead of to Donald Trump by 8. The poll surveyed 500 likely Ohio voters by landline and cell phone from Oct. 4 to 8. The poll has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points."


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 09, 2018, 11:44:50 pm
Huh, interesting. Obviously it's an outlier, but still nice to see something other than a low-single-digit DeWine lead for once. I'd rather see outliers than have pollsters herd.


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on October 09, 2018, 11:47:41 pm
Suffolk must not care about their reputation. LMAO.


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 10, 2018, 12:05:47 am
I do think this poll is a bit Democratic friendly overall, but it does show a closer relationship between the Senate and governor race, which I figured would happen at some point.


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: Sir Mohamed on October 10, 2018, 01:39:36 am
Good news, though too many undecideds. I think Brown will also push Cordray over the finishline.

Lean R.

What? How is this Lean R? If it was DeWine +3, it would be safe R? ???


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: Gass3268 on October 10, 2018, 08:14:21 am
I do think this poll is a bit Democratic friendly overall, but it does show a closer relationship between the Senate and governor race, which I figured would happen at some point.

Agreed


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: Bagel23 on October 10, 2018, 08:19:43 am
Good news, though too many undecideds. I think Brown will also push Cordray over the finishline.

Lean R.

What? How is this Lean R? If it was DeWine +3, it would be safe R? ???

No but the sample is plus 6 for Clinton.


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 10, 2018, 08:20:50 am
Too Democratic-friendly, but honestly more believable than the Brown +20 junk.


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: psychprofessor on October 10, 2018, 11:06:52 am
post Kav Dem bump noted - seems to be a trend now


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: politicallefty on October 11, 2018, 01:03:36 am
I think what's really strange with Ohio right now is that while Brown has a consistent lead, the governor's race is jumping around just based on different polls (compared to Florida where Gillum is consistently running a couple points ahead of Nelson).


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: THE BuckeyeNut on October 11, 2018, 12:47:03 pm
Too Democratic-friendly, but honestly more believable than the Brown +20 junk.

Except most polls in the past month or so have had Brown +17 or more...


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: Ebsy on October 11, 2018, 01:03:41 pm
The fundamentals strongly suggest that the Ohio Governor's mansion is going to flip this cycle, no idea why people are so resistant to the thought that Cordray might win.


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: Politician on October 11, 2018, 01:18:40 pm
Too Democratic-friendly, but honestly more believable than the Brown +20 junk.

Except most polls in the past month or so have had Brown +17 or more...
He believes Ohio is a red state after 2016 and also hates Sherrod Brown, so I wouldn't be surprised he holds that view.


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: Vosem on October 11, 2018, 01:29:54 pm
Still think this race is Tilts R or so, but for what it's worth Suffolk has traditionally had a pretty Republican house effect (especially in the 2012 cycle), but they're a credible firm nonetheless and this poll is unquestionably very good news for Cordray.


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: Cory Booker on October 11, 2018, 01:41:42 pm
DeWine isn't Rob Portman and can lose


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on October 11, 2018, 06:58:14 pm
The fundamentals strongly suggest that the Ohio Governor's mansion is going to flip this cycle, no idea why people are so resistant to the thought that Cordray might win.

Because he's boring and looks like Jack McBrayer or something. It's definitely a tossup though. He can lose.


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on October 14, 2018, 09:03:18 am
Cordray is not leading by 6 but I think he will win by 2-3 points.


Title: Re: OH: Suffolk University: Cordray (D) +6
Post by: Badger on October 16, 2018, 12:00:25 pm
The fundamentals strongly suggest that the Ohio Governor's mansion is going to flip this cycle, no idea why people are so resistant to the thought that Cordray might win.

Because he's boring and looks like Jack McBrayer or something.

Such a shame he's going up against The Charisma machine that is Mike dewine. ;)