Talk Elections

Stacey Abrams 46%
Brian Kemp 46%
Undecided 7%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/16f1CFRu_nbvIm3ioh16-jPgRJ_GDQaQO/view

A PPP poll that wasn't conducted for some D Pac? When was the last time we saw one of those?

This seems like a very good result for this kind of sample tbh.

Toss-up/likely runoff remains Toss-up/likely runoff.

^^

I wouldn't give a runn-off a higher than 30-35% chance. The two other candidates, a Libertarian and Independent, are very low profile. Don't expect then to get above 1.5% or 2% in the end.

This race will be tight. Turnout could push Abrams over the edge.

Abrams just can't break out in front, and therefore her chances to win not that great.  Got to hope for this out of the woodwork vote that I keep hearing about which would materialize in November and put her over the top.

tilt D the angry women of atlanta put Abrams over the top on E Day

The majority of these polls have overstated the percentage of the electorate whites will actually be by 3-5 percentage points.

Secondly, she is chasing voters hard that won't be on polls. Low propensity rural blacks and Spanish-speaking households won't show up on a poll.

Republican trailer park hicks in Haralson County most likely won't show up on a poll as well.

They are low propensity midterm voters too. Kemp is doing nothing to activate them. He has no incentive too. He just needs to get the same people to come out. He didn't launch a massive VBM initiative to bring new voters into the midterms nor does he have an aggressive field program with a volunteer base of thousands. The enthusiasm gap and the gap of intensity with actually getting out the vote is staggering. But y'all can keep thinking otherwise for the next 27 days. :P

I would hope that Abrams is targeting these voters as well--and if so, the message needs to be specifically on the health care issue. Haralson County (about 50 miles west of Atlanta) is not wealthy at all-30000 people and one 25 bed hospital.  And as Paulite notes, those "Republican trailer park hicks" are there in droves and they lack insurance and cannot qualify for Medicaid with the current state standards.  

In my opinion, the health care issue gives her a fighting chance in these areas.  This is an issue that is crossing all ethnic (and even income) barriers.  Haralson went for Trump by a 71 point margin.  Abrams can make serious inroads here and rural areas throughout west and south Georgia by reducing this margin by about 15 points or so.  

Abrams has no incentive to target low propensity voters that are Strong Republicans when they do decide to vote.

This (https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/rural-georgians-want-medicaid-but-theyre-divided-on-stacey-abrams-the-candidate-who-wants-to-expand-it) article talks to several voters who need Medicaid Expansion to survive and all are voting for Kemp. At some point, you have to move on to people who are going to listen to your message without pushing back with conspiracy theories and Alt-right memes.

I'm not talking about picking up the whole bunch of these voters but at least try to get the margins down.  I've said it before--Obama's electoral strategy was to hit rural Iowa hard, and he brought down the margins from 50 to 20--and he won the state twice.

I was under the impression that Abrams was trying to do just that.  It may be that they wouldn't vote for her anyway (for certain reasons), but they may vote for the Democrats downticket--notably at the LG or SOS level.   Otherwise, we're playing with identity politics--see what a great job that has done for the Democrats over the past few years.

She has been all over rural Georgia even the parts with no significant black population. There is a difference between going to these places to spread your message and intentionally going to get out their vote. That's what I was saying. Yes, she should go to all communities speaking about Medicaid Expansion but when it comes to using actual, tangible resources on getting the vote out they need to be focused on those that will vote D if asked to go to vote in an election.

Didn't Kemp already invigorate the Racist GA Hicks earlier with his ridiculous ads?

You mean the one where he fellated an AR-15 or the one where he ran a cow over with his pickup truck and then made brisket out of it?