Talk Elections

47% Walker (R, inc.)
46% Evers (D)
5% Anderson (L)

Oh, great.   Just what we need.  A victory lap by hofoid...

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1050074375737757696

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1050074761504743424


Baldwin's massive lead in the Senate race gives me confidence that Evers will pull out a narrow win here. Gonna be close!

I believe this as I believe Corday is up by 6.

Why the heck would they sample 4 percent more Republicans? Ugh, now we have to hear Hofoid's mouth until Election Day. My state can't possibly be this stupid in this current political climate! I hope Walker's attack ads really aren't working and this is just an outlier.

Also, WI isn't really known for ticketsplitting..........why is Baldwin still leading Vukmir by a landslide?

Hopefully Wisconsin Democrats realize that this race is, at the very least, not over yet, and the turnout/enthusiasm among Democrats will increase between now and November.

Given that Marquette has consistently found better numbers for Walker then other posters, I still believe this is Lean D, but obviously closer to tossup then Likely.

Marquette does zero weighting for partisanship. Lets' the voters tell them what party they support.

Everyone take cover from hofoid’s massive load.

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I wonder if this will be the year that Marquette becomes totally discredited. We shall see what their final poll says.

Speaking about Turnout:

IMO Scott Walker has "the single best Turnout Machine" of any sitting Republican Governor running for Re-Election. If a Governor in the Midwest pulls out a win it's gonna be him.

Democrats in my view vastly underestimating the Reince Priebus, Paul Ryan, Walker Machine just like in 2016 and they paid for it.

A tossup remains a tossup.

Can't argue against the Gold Standard. Let the unskewing begin..

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Why has MU been the only poll showing Walker leading? He was leading by 4 in their June poll. If MU is indeed the most reliable, then the other polls have been wrong. I am so done with polls now....

Right? The utter complacency of National Dems spitting on the Rust Belt with Phoenix New Money Housewives Pro-income Inequality Identity Politics is now culminating in a loss of a once progressive state.

Would Anderson really get 5% of the vote?  I doubt it.

We all thought Nelson would carry Gillum across the finish line, but maybe its Baldwin carrying Evers across the finish line instead.

Also...


I’ve read this post twice and have no idea what on earth this is supposed to mean

I think this is a tossup, but what is it with this race and ridiculous hot takes on both sides?

Yep, take what I said and multiply it by 100 now.

Something something complacent Dems in disarray.

The hot takes are hofoid’s life force

People letting their personal feelings get in the way of their predictions/analysis.

The only hot takes here are everyone rushing to discredit the partisan composition. Is it hard to believe that timid GOPers are coming home in Wisconsin?

lolol

trolls gonna troll

I thought it was a Tossup before and that it is a Tossup now

It kind of seems like last month was an outlier and this is more in line with Marquettes previous results.

Democrats are still more enthused to vote:

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1050086123526074370

Last poll will come out on 10/31 in 3 weeks (6 days before the election).

Republicans cut the Enthusiasm Gap from 11 to 7....and I expect that to be narrowed even further over the coming four weeks.

oh, wonderful

Even if Walker loses, I’d say it’s pretty obvious that Republicans have a much better chance of winning WI than PA/MN in 2020, not that that’s necessarily saying much.

It is somewhat odd that MU is the only poll that has had good numbers for Walker this cycle, though. No other poll but MU has shown Walker leading yet.

I don’t think anyone has disputed that, have they?

I'd expect the Gold Standard not to imitate all the other pretenders.

MN, sure, but PA? Why does everyone think that a state that voted 0.1% to the right of PA after voting to the left of it twice in a row can't possibly vote to the left of PA in 2020? And I really don't think that the 2018 results will have that much impact on the 2020 elections.

This.

Toss up -> Toss up

Ugh, I don't even need to see the posts to know this thread has been a steamy stinking pile of bullsh**t #hottakes.

He received 3% in the 2016 Senate race, and Gary Johnson received 4% in Wisconsin for president, so it's not like 5% would be a huge outlier (interestingly, Wisconsin was also home of a rare serious Libertarian effort in 2002 to win the governor's race; their candidate won a full 11% and carried 2 counties). 5% seems kind of high for a race between what are basically Generic Wisconsin R and Generic Wisconsin D in 2018, though; I'd imagine most everyone in the state knows which of those they prefer and the race is basically a turnout game.

Walker has a resiliency to win Governorhip elections, WI is still a purple state

The Libertarian in 2002 was Tommy Thompson's brother.

I know -- typically when a Libertarian does really well there's a "star candidate" vibe to them (Gary Johnson, Joe Miller, Ed Thompson and so forth are all prominent dissident GOPers; dissident Democrats don't typically run as Libertarians). But it's still noteworthy that Wisconsin is a state that's been receptive-ish to that sort of campaign in the past.