Talk Elections

James trails Stabenow 42-51%

But a very misleading tweet about it that’s gaining traction:

https://twitter.com/tori_sachs/status/1050078763080450048?s=21

The last Mitchell poll was D+13, not +18.

This pollster’s numbers are definitely more R-friendly than the other Michigan pollsters.

Still Safe D, no matter how much the Republicans want to believe their cool black guy can win.

LMAO.

#StabenowUnder52

If the tweet was misleading, why did you post it?

Because it was the only source available at the time.

Likely D race is likely D.

FTFY

No

My friend who has family from Botson and who convinced me to put Warren at likely D had this race at lean D.

You guys seriously believe there’s a rat’s ass chance someone as popular in their state as Stabenow loses in this climate?

Well, with WI poll showing D+10, this is not looking totaly out of sphere of possibility

Who said that? Whom are you fighting with?

#JamesSurging
#2016Redux
#DemsInDisarray

What kind of argument could have convinced you to put Warren at likely D?

I can believe James ends up at 42%.

He’s a smart dude and he told me to trust him so I did.

Well, one of my friends with a big brain, very big brain, told me that there's no way Cantwell can win again. Should I trust him and put WA-SEN at Safe R?

No, because that's just too far beyond the pale, unless he has like good evidence that she is a Moorean disciple.

Kid Rock would've made this a toss up imo tbh tbh imho. #CandidateQualityMatters

I had forgotten about Kid Rock, lol. #Just2017AtlasThings

#never4getsenrock

Michigan polling can be really bad sometimes, as we're all aware. I doubt Stabenow fails to break 60%. She's noncontroversial, very likeable, and fits the state very well.

Candidate quality is a factor. Less so than in the past but still a factor. Not sure why everyone on this site thinks it makes NO difference whatsoever.

Well, for one thing, that post was a joke. :P

I don't believe anyone ever claimed it makes no difference whatsoever, particularly in extreme cases like Roy Moore. Just that fundamentals, partisanship, political environment, etc. are the main drivers of the vast majority of election outcomes, especially in the present day. Even in one of the most extreme examples, 91% of Republicans still voted for a literal pedophile (see sig.)

So in an interview with one of the Mitchell pollsters, they claimed it showed James slashing Stab’s lead in half despite their last poll being Stabenow +13. I wonder what their intentions were by saying something so blatantly untrue. Maybe their secretly an internal pollster for the James campaign?

This has all the makings of a GOP internal. In a blue wave year where independents are running to Democrats in droves, they're not going to turn around and vote out a popular Democratic incumbent.

In all seriousness, in order to have had any chance in this race, the GOP would have needed to nominate Sandy Pensler, as he was a free-spending millionaire who would have been able to get up on TV faster and at least do some advertising. Even at that, his chances still would have been remote. I still have no idea why Republican primary voters voted for John James considering how the GOP has become the white nationalist party, but he's not going to get a single Black vote other than his own.

Yeah, right!