Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: PA is Lean D on October 10, 2018, 02:46:08 pm



Title: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: PA is Lean D on October 10, 2018, 02:46:08 pm
James trails Stabenow 42-51%

But a very misleading tweet about it thatís gaining traction:



The last Mitchell poll was D+13, not +18.

This pollsterís numbers are definitely more R-friendly than the other Michigan pollsters.

Still Safe D, no matter how much the Republicans want to believe their cool black guy can win.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on October 10, 2018, 02:51:21 pm
LMAO.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on October 10, 2018, 02:52:10 pm
#StabenowUnder52


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Ebsy on October 10, 2018, 02:53:36 pm
If the tweet was misleading, why did you post it?


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: PA is Lean D on October 10, 2018, 02:55:43 pm
If the tweet was misleading, why did you post it?

Because it was the only source available at the time.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Bagel23 on October 10, 2018, 02:59:23 pm
Likely D race is likely D.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on October 10, 2018, 03:00:17 pm

FTFY


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Bagel23 on October 10, 2018, 03:01:15 pm

No


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Bagel23 on October 10, 2018, 03:04:51 pm
My friend who has family from Botson and who convinced me to put Warren at likely D had this race at lean D.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Weak Incumbent MT Treasurer on October 10, 2018, 03:07:59 pm


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: PA is Lean D on October 10, 2018, 03:09:26 pm

You guys seriously believe thereís a ratís ass chance someone as popular in their state as Stabenow loses in this climate?


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: bilaps on October 10, 2018, 03:10:00 pm
Well, with WI poll showing D+10, this is not looking totaly out of sphere of possibility


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: bilaps on October 10, 2018, 03:14:33 pm

You guys seriously believe thereís a ratís ass chance someone as popular in their state as Stabenow loses in this climate?

Who said that? Whom are you fighting with?


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Xing on October 10, 2018, 04:00:31 pm
#JamesSurging
#2016Redux
#DemsInDisarray


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Galaxie on October 10, 2018, 06:29:53 pm
My friend who has family from Botson and who convinced me to put Warren at likely D had this race at lean D.

What kind of argument could have convinced you to put Warren at likely D?


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Skye on October 10, 2018, 07:48:43 pm
I can believe James ends up at 42%.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Bagel23 on October 10, 2018, 07:52:08 pm
My friend who has family from Botson and who convinced me to put Warren at likely D had this race at lean D.

What kind of argument could have convinced you to put Warren at likely D?

Heís a smart dude and he told me to trust him so I did.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Xing on October 10, 2018, 08:17:42 pm
My friend who has family from Botson and who convinced me to put Warren at likely D had this race at lean D.

What kind of argument could have convinced you to put Warren at likely D?

Heís a smart dude and he told me to trust him so I did.

Well, one of my friends with a big brain, very big brain, told me that there's no way Cantwell can win again. Should I trust him and put WA-SEN at Safe R?


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Bagel23 on October 10, 2018, 08:19:19 pm
My friend who has family from Botson and who convinced me to put Warren at likely D had this race at lean D.

What kind of argument could have convinced you to put Warren at likely D?

Heís a smart dude and he told me to trust him so I did.

Well, one of my friends with a big brain, very big brain, told me that there's no way Cantwell can win again. Should I trust him and put WA-SEN at Safe R?

No, because that's just too far beyond the pale, unless he has like good evidence that she is a Moorean disciple.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Bevinevitable on October 11, 2018, 01:24:57 am
Kid Rock would've made this a toss up imo tbh tbh imho. #CandidateQualityMatters


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Lean Branson on October 11, 2018, 01:33:29 am
Kid Rock would've made this a toss up imo tbh tbh imho. #CandidateQualityMatters

I had forgotten about Kid Rock, lol. #Just2017AtlasThings


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Bevinevitable on October 11, 2018, 01:44:50 am
Kid Rock would've made this a toss up imo tbh tbh imho. #CandidateQualityMatters

I had forgotten about Kid Rock, lol. #Just2017AtlasThings

#never4getsenrock


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: politicallefty on October 11, 2018, 01:56:52 am
Michigan polling can be really bad sometimes, as we're all aware. I doubt Stabenow fails to break 60%. She's noncontroversial, very likeable, and fits the state very well.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: jimmie on October 11, 2018, 02:10:34 am

Candidate quality is a factor. Less so than in the past but still a factor. Not sure why everyone on this site thinks it makes NO difference whatsoever.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Bevinevitable on October 11, 2018, 02:39:22 am

Candidate quality is a factor. Less so than in the past but still a factor. Not sure why everyone on this site thinks it makes NO difference whatsoever.

Well, for one thing, that post was a joke. :P

I don't believe anyone ever claimed it makes no difference whatsoever, particularly in extreme cases like Roy Moore. Just that fundamentals, partisanship, political environment, etc. are the main drivers of the vast majority of election outcomes, especially in the present day. Even in one of the most extreme examples, 91% of Republicans still voted for a literal pedophile (see sig.)


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: PA is Lean D on October 11, 2018, 11:51:01 am
So in an interview with one of the Mitchell pollsters, they claimed it showed James slashing Stabís lead in half despite their last poll being Stabenow +13. I wonder what their intentions were by saying something so blatantly untrue. Maybe their secretly an internal pollster for the James campaign?


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Wolverine22 on October 11, 2018, 02:23:23 pm
This has all the makings of a GOP internal. In a blue wave year where independents are running to Democrats in droves, they're not going to turn around and vote out a popular Democratic incumbent.

In all seriousness, in order to have had any chance in this race, the GOP would have needed to nominate Sandy Pensler, as he was a free-spending millionaire who would have been able to get up on TV faster and at least do some advertising. Even at that, his chances still would have been remote. I still have no idea why Republican primary voters voted for John James considering how the GOP has become the white nationalist party, but he's not going to get a single Black vote other than his own.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell Research: Stabenow +9
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on October 11, 2018, 06:42:22 pm
Yeah, right!