Talk Elections

The October 5-6 survey of 1,052 likely Missouri voters has Republican Josh Hawley up 2 points over Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill – 44%-42% with 11% undecided. Each of the measures to legalize marijuana receives 62% yes or better.

Senate Race

Incumbent U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill finds herself in a fight to win a third term. State Attorney General Josh Hawley now holds a 2-point lead over McCaskill with only 40% of voters approving of the job she is doing.

None of the third party candidates have gained any traction overall, but in a race this close, the cumulative 3-4% that these candidates are garnering could matter in the final tally.

Similar to McCaskill's victory over Jim Talent in 2006, this race will come down to turnout. Democratic voter enthusiasm has been high throughout the Trump presidency, and if McCaskill can tap into that enthusiasm without losing her appeal to more moderate and conservative voters, then she still has a chance. If fallout from the recent fight over Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination increases Republican turnout, she could be in real trouble against Hawley.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/missouri-amendment-2-legalizing-medical-marijuana-leads-300729303.html

Who?

Eventually Dems will realize the need to create more states. Apparently it may take losing seats in the Senate while winning the overall Senate popular vote by double digits to do the persuasion, though.

That's it, Safe-R

An R internal? And from someone who I have never heard of? Safe R.

You're goddamn right!

It's from a non-partisan group who primarily polls ballot initiatives.

Looks like they are big on the medical marijuana referendum and the 15% sales tax for medical/cancer research. Bummer they didn't poll the redistricting one.

Toss-Up, maybe Tilt R for now, but McCaskill’s definitely not done.

Honest question: What has McCaskill done in Missouri that makes her so appealing to people that are otherwise very pro trump and conservative in general? As far as I know, she hasn't brought in any sort of pork to the state.

NGA West in St. Louis.

Toss-up -> Toss-up

Yeah, its not. Saw the (R) and assumed it applied to the pollster, as thats why we usually use it.

Hawley can't seem to break out past 45% in any of these polls. McCaskill should be able to too, but in a Dem-leaning year, I'd assume more undecideds will break for her.