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Election Archive => 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on October 11, 2018, 04:00:33 pm



Title: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on October 11, 2018, 04:00:33 pm
Evers (D): 53%
Walker (R): 43%

Evers favorability is +11
Walker favorability is -12



Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 11, 2018, 04:01:01 pm
Wow.  Wasn't expecting that!


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Gass3268 on October 11, 2018, 04:02:21 pm
Baldwin's numbers aren't that different than the Marquette numbers, but this obviously is.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Inelastic Whites for Jim Hood on October 11, 2018, 04:03:17 pm
Lean D. This poll is something of an outlier and I expect the margin to thin out but to claim Evers isn't a solid favorite is ludicrous.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Former Senator Zaybay on October 11, 2018, 04:03:54 pm
*Spews out Drink*


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: AOC for President 2032 on October 11, 2018, 04:04:31 pm
Yeah, Marist is looking heavily D-leaning this cycle for this state. It's as if they excluded WOW or only polled women. LMAO. This is why they aren't the Gold Standard.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 11, 2018, 04:05:57 pm
Definitely think its closer to Evers +8 than +10 but I knew the Marquette poll was Republican-friendly. Considering Trump approval and those congressional ballot numbers (which aren't too bad for Republicans in a D-friendly midterm) Walker is in trouble, and he is an underdog at this point.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: AOC for President 2032 on October 11, 2018, 04:07:01 pm
Definitely think its closer to Evers +8 than +10 but I knew the Marquette poll was Republican-friendly. Considering Trump approval and those congressional ballot numbers (which aren't too bad for Republicans in a D-friendly midterm) Walker is in trouble, and he is an underdog at this point.
Keep this in mind before you start celebrating and getting complacent...

NBC/Marist is going to release a Wisconsin poll at 5pm. Going to get a comparison.

Also remember, Wisconsin is one of the states where we had the issue of pollsters not weighing for education. NBC/Marist still does not weight for education, but Marquette does. The average of the past two LV screen weighted BA+ at 40%. Good to have that number in mind when looking at the new NBC/Marist poll later this afternoon.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Gass3268 on October 11, 2018, 04:07:12 pm
Even though Marist does not weight for education, the likely voter same is 44% college educated, which is only 4 points higher than what Marquette, who does weigh for education, has averaged the past two months.

So this is a bit higher than normal, but not radically higher to the point you have to question the sample.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Gass3268 on October 11, 2018, 04:08:00 pm
Definitely think its closer to Evers +8 than +10 but I knew the Marquette poll was Republican-friendly. Considering Trump approval and those congressional ballot numbers (which aren't too bad for Republicans in a D-friendly midterm) Walker is in trouble, and he is an underdog at this point.
Keep this in mind before you start celebrating and getting complacent...

NBC/Marist is going to release a Wisconsin poll at 5pm. Going to get a comparison.

Also remember, Wisconsin is one of the states where we had the issue of pollsters not weighing for education. NBC/Marist still does not weight for education, but Marquette does. The average of the past two LV screen weighted BA+ at 40%. Good to have that number in mind when looking at the new NBC/Marist poll later this afternoon.

They are only off Marquette's average by 4 points, totally within the realm of possibility.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: adrac on October 11, 2018, 04:08:24 pm
Hot


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbedk on October 11, 2018, 04:09:02 pm
When Walker loses can we make a thread with all of Hofoid's quotes?


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on October 11, 2018, 04:09:06 pm
Definitely think its closer to Evers +8 than +10 but I knew the Marquette poll was Republican-friendly. Considering Trump approval and those congressional ballot numbers (which aren't too bad for Republicans in a D-friendly midterm) Walker is in trouble, and he is an underdog at this point.

Agreed. Plus there was no way Baldwin was ahead by double digits while Evers wasn't at least eeking out Walker by like three points.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: AOC for President 2032 on October 11, 2018, 04:12:17 pm
When Walker loses can we make a thread with all of Hofoid's quotes?
If Walker loses, then people should honestly thank me for doing my part in reminding people to not be complacent and to go out there and vote. Also, that would mean that Dems are learning how to win the Midwest again. 


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: olowakandi on October 11, 2018, 04:12:51 pm
Great news


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Gass3268 on October 11, 2018, 04:13:23 pm


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: superbudgie1582 on October 11, 2018, 04:14:02 pm
I feel like this has happend before. And what I mean by that is Marist showing Evers ahead and Marquette having a toss-up.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Atlas Force on October 11, 2018, 04:14:44 pm
When Walker loses can we make a thread with all of Hofoid's quotes?
If Walker loses, then people should honestly thank me for doing my part in reminding people to not be complacent and to go out there and vote. Also, that would mean that Dems are learning how to win the Midwest again. 
So if Walker loses, people should give the credit to some random Internet forum poster? Okay...


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on October 11, 2018, 04:14:54 pm
Marquette has been consistently Walker-friendly this entire election, not to mention they've been very "bouncy".


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on October 11, 2018, 04:16:00 pm
Hot


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: KingSweden on October 11, 2018, 04:17:27 pm
I’d say split the difference between this and Marquette for a good read of where the race might be


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: AOC for President 2032 on October 11, 2018, 04:19:03 pm
I feel like this has happend before. And what I mean by that is Marist showing Evers ahead and Marquette having a toss-up.

Hmm, something else happened before in terms of polling...in this very state.
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?fips=55
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?fips=55&class=3


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Virginiá on October 11, 2018, 04:30:46 pm
I feel like this has happend before. And what I mean by that is Marist showing Evers ahead and Marquette having a toss-up.

Hmm, something else happened before in terms of polling...in this very state.
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?fips=55
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?fips=55&class=3

"but 2016" might just be the funniest excuse this entire cycle by Nov 7th

This poll makes more sense with Baldwin's numbers/Walker's approvals (in other polls), although it seems a bit too optimistic.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Arch on October 11, 2018, 04:39:59 pm
Sweet. #Over50 too.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Snek! on October 11, 2018, 04:40:05 pm
He probably wins comfortably but not in a landslide.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on October 11, 2018, 04:40:07 pm
Kavanaugh effect: Evers up 24 points with women, trailing by 4 amongst men.

Evers winning 60% of college graduates, up a point amongst non-college grads.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: History505 on October 11, 2018, 04:52:42 pm
Walker's time may be just about up.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: olowakandi on October 11, 2018, 05:05:05 pm
Kavanaugh effect: Evers up 24 points with women, trailing by 4 amongst men.

Evers winning 60% of college graduates, up a point amongst non-college grads.

Dems were always gonna won MI/PA/WI, I ts the red states OH and FL that matter for Congress


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: wbrocks67 on October 11, 2018, 05:05:38 pm
I mean, just take the average. Evers +5 or 6. That seems about where it's been in most polls lately.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: The Inevitable Kevin Stitt on October 11, 2018, 05:38:56 pm
Remember when we were told we were letting personal feelings get in the way by rating this Leans D yesterday?


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Xing on October 11, 2018, 05:40:26 pm
Definitely a bit Democratic-friendly (okay, maybe more than a bit), but one thing is consistent: Walker is underperforming the GCB in both polls (the Marquette poll was R+3, he was up 1, this poll is D+6, Evers is up 10), which is terrible news for Walker. I don't see how more Republicans turn out in a year like this. I think I'm ready to call this race Lean D. It's too soon to count Walker out, but he's clearly down in the average, and it says something that a poll showing him up just 1% is considered a very good poll for him.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: olowakandi on October 11, 2018, 05:43:55 pm
Evers will win 51-49%


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: yeah_93 on October 11, 2018, 06:37:36 pm
It's like they saw Marquette's poll and said "The F- you don't!".

At least we know they aren't herding.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on October 11, 2018, 07:01:42 pm
Please, oh please, be true!


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: morgieb on October 11, 2018, 07:11:31 pm
Seems a bit over, but the crosstabs do check out. My main worry about certain bits of the Midwest is that they got 2016 really wrong, but hopefully complacency doesn't hit again.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Scottholes 2.0 on October 11, 2018, 07:57:57 pm
FiftyThirtyEight gives Marist an A rating in reliability. Same with MU. It's crazy how MU has been the only pollster showing Walker leading.

These polls are confusing, but Evers is definitely going to win!


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbedk on October 11, 2018, 08:24:13 pm
My guess- Evers +6


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Brittain33 on October 11, 2018, 08:51:41 pm
Remember that (D)allet beat Sc(R)enock 56%-44%.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Scottholes 2.0 on October 11, 2018, 10:24:19 pm
Someone with access to poll entries should enter this poll.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on October 11, 2018, 10:41:41 pm
Kavanaugh effect: Evers up 24 points with women, trailing by 4 amongst men.

Evers winning 60% of college graduates, up a point amongst non-college grads.

Dems were always gonna won MI/PA/WI, I ts the red states OH and FL that matter for Congress

Um Michigan and Pennsylvania have quite a few battleground districts this year.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on October 11, 2018, 10:42:23 pm
Someone with access to poll entries should enter this poll.

Don't count on it. It's a great poll for the Dems so it'll take till Halloween to put in.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 12, 2018, 12:07:28 am
Eh, there are quite a few red flags with this polls, as has already been noted. The use of RDD instead of the voter file it particularly problematic. Also note that despite having been released later, this poll is actually older than the Marquette one.

The best guess is that the truth lies somewhere between the two polls, but sadly probably closer to Marquette.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Bevinevitable on October 12, 2018, 12:51:16 am
Either Marquette or Marist is going to look really stupid in a few weeks. Or maybe even both.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on October 12, 2018, 08:27:05 am
Uh, no. Walker could very well lose, but definitely not by 10, lol. Then again, Marist sure has shown very interesting numbers this year, especially in the Midwest.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Gass3268 on October 12, 2018, 08:46:19 am
Eh, there are quite a few red flags with this polls, as has already been noted. The use of RDD instead of the voter file it particularly problematic. Also note that despite having been released later, this poll is actually older than the Marquette one.

The best guess is that the truth lies somewhere between the two polls, but sadly probably closer to Marquette.



Also Marist weighs by income in place of education.





Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Sir Mohamed on October 12, 2018, 09:08:14 am
Evers won't win by 10, but he's favored to oust anti-union warrior Walker. Evers by 5 in the end would be my prediction.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Justice Blair on October 12, 2018, 09:12:44 am
When Walker loses can we make a thread with all of Hofoid's quotes?


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: IceAgeComing on October 12, 2018, 01:45:46 pm
When Walker loses can we make a thread with all of Hofoid's quotes?
If Walker loses, then people should honestly thank me for doing my part in reminding people to not be complacent and to go out there and vote. Also, that would mean that Dems are learning how to win the Midwest again. 

yes I'm sure some geek on the us election atlas dot com forums is this integral to a major big money political campaign

get over yourself


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 12, 2018, 02:36:13 pm
Eh, there are quite a few red flags with this polls, as has already been noted. The use of RDD instead of the voter file it particularly problematic. Also note that despite having been released later, this poll is actually older than the Marquette one.

The best guess is that the truth lies somewhere between the two polls, but sadly probably closer to Marquette.



Also Marist weighs by income in place of education.





Oh, that's interesting. Then it seems they're probably about equal in quality (although the fact that the Marquette poll is more recent remains).


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Bevinevitable on October 12, 2018, 09:31:13 pm
When Walker loses can we make a thread with all of Hofoid's quotes?
If Walker loses, then people should honestly thank me for doing my part in reminding people to not be complacent and to go out there and vote. Also, that would mean that Dems are learning how to win the Midwest again. 

yes I'm sure some geek on the us election atlas dot com forums is this integral to a major big money political campaign

get over yourself

That's US Election Atlas Dot ORG Slash FORUM, actually.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Scottholes 2.0 on October 14, 2018, 04:01:06 pm
I just hope the next MU poll doesn't show Walker leading even more. Then, that's when I'll be concerned. Fifty Thirty Eight gives MU Law and Marist both A ratings, so I'm not sure which one I should believe as they are equal in reliability.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 14, 2018, 08:51:40 pm
I just hope the next MU poll doesn't show Walker leading even more. Then, that's when I'll be concerned. Fifty Thirty Eight gives MU Law and Marist both A ratings, so I'm not sure which one I should believe as they are equal in reliability.

Throw them in the average. Weight the Marquette one a little more because of better methodology and recency, but not much more.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Xing on October 14, 2018, 09:34:55 pm
I just hope the next MU poll doesn't show Walker leading even more. Then, that's when I'll be concerned. Fifty Thirty Eight gives MU Law and Marist both A ratings, so I'm not sure which one I should believe as they are equal in reliability.

I doubt that they'll have Walker doing better, unless the environment shifts in favor of the Republicans again near the end of October. Hopefully, if they find Walker behind again, Democrats won't get complacent.


Title: Re: WI-Marist: Evers +10
Post by: Bevinevitable on November 07, 2018, 01:56:39 am
JUNK POLL!

And far from their only one. Marist is straight garbage.

Always trust Marquette in Wisconsin.